october 2019 political monitor · labour 24% general election % oct ‘19 johnson as pm (july 19)...

1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1

October 2019

POLITICAL MONITOR


October 2019

VOTING

INTENTIONS

3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

Voting Intention: October 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 791 Margin of

error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a

9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially

important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +14

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +17

41%

24%

20%

7%

3%

5%

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEMS

BREXIT PARTY

GREEN

OTHER

41%

27%

17%

8%

3%

5%

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

BREXIT PARTY

GREEN

OTHER



Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election


Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in

General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 1

5

Jul 15

Sep

15

No

v 1

5

Jan

16

Mar

16

May 1

6

Jul 16

Sep

16

No

v 1

6

Jan

17

Mar

17

May 1

7

Jul 17

Sep

17

No

v 1

7

Jan

18

Mar

18

May 1

8

Jul 18

Sep

18

No

v 1

8

Jan

19

Mar

19

May 1

9

Jul 19

Sep

19

Corbyn elected

(Sept 15)

May as PM

(July 16)

CONSERVATIVE 41%

LABOUR 24%

GENERAL

ELECTION

%

Oct ‘19

Johnson as PM

(July 19)

Oct

19


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04

Ap

r 04

Jul 04

Oct

04

Jan

05

Ap

r 05

Jul 05

Oct

05

Jan

06

Ap

r 06

Jul 06

Oct

06

Jan

07

Ap

r 07

Jul 07

Oct

07

Jan

08

Ap

r 08

Jul 08

Oct

08

Jan

09

Ap

r 09

Jul 09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Ap

r 10

Jul 10

Oct

10

Jan

11

Ap

r 11

Jul 11

Oct

11

Jan

12

Ap

r 12

Jul 12

Oct

12

Jan

13

Ap

r 13

Jul 13

Oct

13

Jan

14

Ap

r 14

Jul 14

Oct

14

Jan

15

Ap

r 15

Jul 15

Oct

15

Jan

16

Ap

r 16

Jul 16

Oct

16

Jan

17

Ap

r 17

Jul 17

Oct

17

Jan

18

Ap

r 18

Jul 18

Oct

18

Jan

19

Ap

r 19

Jul 19

Oct

19

Miliband elected

(Sept 10)Corbyn elected

(Sept 15)

May as PM

(July 16)Johnson as PM

(July 19)


Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – October ‘19


Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in

General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

Cameron elected

(Dec 05)

Brown as PM

(June 07)

CONSERVATIVE 41%

LABOUR 24%

UKIP 0%

GREEN 3%

LIB DEM 20%

GENERAL

ELECTION

%

Oct ‘19

THE BREXIT PARTY 7%


October 2019

SATISFACTION

WITH GOVERNMENT

AND PARTY

LEADERS


Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentJo Swinson

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB.

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ LEADER OF THE BREXIT PARTY?.

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: October 2019


Base: 1,001 British adults 18+ 25-28 October 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and

% “dissatisfied”

75%

10%

15%

41%

30%

29%

DISSATISFIED

DON’T KNOW

SATISFIED

0% SWING

FROM SEP 2019-3% SWING

FROM SEP 2019

+6% SWING

FROM SEP 2019

NET=-60 NET= -12 NET=-55NET=+2

44%

10%

46%

19%

6%

74

%

Nigel Farage

51%

20%

29%

NET=-22

+10% SWING

FROM SEP 2019

-3.5% SWING

FROM SEP 2019


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY BORIS JOHNSON IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Boris Johnson


44% Dissatisfied

10% Don’t know

46% Satisfied

Satisfaction

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019

NET = +2

October 2019 July 2019 – October 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

SATISFIED 46%

DISSATISFIED 44%


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY BORIS JOHNSON IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Boris Johnson


9% Dissatisfied

11% Don’t know

80% Satisfied

Satisfaction among Conservative supporters

Base: 369 Conservative party supporters 18+, 25-28 October 2019

NET = +71


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

SATISFIED 80%

DISSATISFIED 9%


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

MAY

CAMERON

BROWN

MAJOR

BLAIR

THATCHER

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER

NET S

ATIS

FA

CTIO

N

Johnson

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

JOHNSON


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?

Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)

Boris Johnson’s Government

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT

NET S

ATIS

FA

CTIO

N

MAY’S GOV

BLAIR’S GOV

MAJOR’S GOV

CAMERON’S GOV

THATCHER’S GOV

BROWN’S GOV



JOHNSON’S GOV


Jeremy Corbyn


October 2019 September 2015 – October 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

Dec-

18

Mar-

19

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

.

SATISFIED 15%

DISSATISFIED 75%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.

NET = -60

Satisfaction

75% Dissatisfied

10% Don’t know

15% Satisfied

%

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+ 25-28 October 2019

Oct

-19


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019)

Corbyn

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER

NET S

ATIS

FA

CTIO

N

CORBYN

BLAIR

SMITH

KINNOCK

MILLIBAND

FOOT

CAMERON

DUNCAN-SMITH

HAGUE

HOWARD





15%

13%

21%

19%

16%

27%

23%

23%

36%

33%

42%

75%

69%

65%

56%

53%

61%

49%

45%

51%

41%

35%

% DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED

NET

SATISFIED

+7

-8

-15

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Note: Data was collected within a month of each Prime Minister taking office, apart from Margaret Thatcher who became PM in May 1979 but the first Ipsos MORI political monitor did not run

until August 1979. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Blair (Sep 96)

Smith (May 93)

Thatcher (Mar 77)

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.

Satisfaction with Leader of the Opposition

Worst score each received during their time as Leader of the Opposition

Cameron (Sep 07)

Howard (Jun 05)

Kinnock (Dec 88)

Duncan-Smith (Feb 03)

Hague (Jan 00)

Miliband (Nov 14)

Foot (Aug 82)

Corbyn (Oct 19)

-22

-26

-34

-37

-37

-44

-56

-60


Jeremy Corbyn

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 195 Labour supporters 18+ 25-28 October 2019

October 2019 September 2015 – October 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec-

17

Mar-

18

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

Dec-

18

Mar-

19

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.

NET = -3

Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters

49% Dissatisfied

5% Don’t know

46% Satisfied

SATISFIED 46%

DISSATISFIED 49%

%

Oct

-19


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JO SWINSON IS DOING HER JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.

Jo Swinson


41% Dissatisfied

30% Don’t know

29% Satisfied

NET = -12

Satisfaction



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

SATISFIED 29%

DISSATISFIED 41%

%


October 2019

ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Dec-

07

Ap

r-08

Au

g-0

8

Dec-

08

Ap

r-09

Au

g-0

9

Dec-

09

Ap

r-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May-1

1

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

May-1

2

Sep

-12

Jan

-13

May-1

3

Sep

-13

Jan

-14

May-1

4

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Oct

-15

Feb

-16

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Feb

-17

Jul-

17

Jan

-18

Jun

-18

Dec-

18

Jun

-19

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE

OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.

Economic Optimism Index


October 2019

EOI = -39

56%

19%

17%

8%

GET WORSE

STAY THE SAME

Don’t know

GET BETTER

Stay the same

Get worse

Improve

%

January 2007 – October 2019

Oct ‘19


Oct

-19


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE

OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.

Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

1998

Oct

1998

Jul 1999

Ap

r 2000

Jan

2001

Oct

2001

Jul 2002

Ap

r 2003

Jan

2004

Oct

2004

Jul 2005

Ap

r 2006

Jan

2007

Oct

2007

Jul 2008

Ap

r 2009

Jan

2010

Oct

2010

Jul 2011

Ap

r 2012

Jan

2013

Oct

2013

Jul 2014

Ap

r 2015

Jan

2016

Oct

2016

Jul 2017

Ap

r 2018

Jan

2019

Oct

2019

NET OPTIMISM=-39

October ‘19


October 2019

BREXIT



DO YOU THINK EACH OF

THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE

A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB

AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S

EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN

UNION?

c

Handling Britain’s

exit from the

European Union

31%

34%

38%

47%

55%

56%

53%

45%

Dec 2016

Mar 2018

Sept 2019

Oct 2019

GOOD JOB BAD JOB

BORIS JOHNSON

JEREMY CORBYN


12%

14%

11%

81%

77%

79%

May 2019

Sep 2019

Oct 2019



DO YOU THINK EACH OF

THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE

A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB

AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S

EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN

UNION?

c

Handling Britain’s

exit from the

European Union

43%

50%

71%

84%

47%

43%

19%

11%

Dec 2016

Mar 2018

Sept 2019

Oct 2019

GOOD JOB BAD JOB

BORIS JOHNSON

JEREMY CORBYN


32%

34%

37%

57%

48%

52%

May 2019

Sep 2019

Oct 2019

Among own party

supporters

Among Conservative party supporters

Among Labour party supporters


DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT

FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?

Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union The Government

BAD JOB 76%

GOOD JOB 18%

37%33% 36%

31%

38%

9%

48%53% 52%

58% 54%

85%

0

20

40

60

80

100 Oct ‘19

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jul-

17

Mar-

18

Mar-

19

Oct

-19



25%

62%

4%

9%

29%

47%

6%

19%

AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT AND

THE EUROPEAN UNION HAVE REACHED AN

AGREEMENT ON THE TERMS OF BRITAIN’S

WITHDRAWAL FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION.

FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD,

DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE A GOOD THING

OR BAD THING FOR THE UK AS A WHOLE TO

WITHDRAW FROM THE EU ON THESE TERMS?


May’s Withdrawal

GOOD THING

BAD THING

NEITHER

DON’T KNOW

Agreement

Dec ‘18

Chequers

Plan

July ‘18Public opinion on

the Withdrawal

Agreement


*Chequers: And from what you know or have heard, do you

think Theresa May’s plan for Britain’s future relationship with

the European Union (also known as The Chequers plan) would

be a good thing or bad thing for the UK as a whole?

Johnson’s Withdrawal

Oct ‘19

Agreement

38%

44%

4%

13%


7%

44%

40%

9%

AND HOW MUCH, IF ANYTHING,

WOULD YOU SAY YOU KNOW

ABOUT THE PROPOSED

AGREEMENT ON THE TERMS OF

BRITAIN’S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE

EUROPEAN UNION?


A GREAT DEAL

NOT VERY MUCH

DON’T KNOW

Public knowledge of

the Withdrawal

Agreement


A FAIR AMOUNT

NOTHING AT ALL

A GREAT

DEAL/FAIR

AMOUNT

51%

NOT VERY

MUCH/NOTHING

AT ALL

49%


30%

39%

28%

3%

AS YOU MAY KNOW, BRITAIN WAS

SCHEDULED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION

ON OCTOBER 31ST. IF BRITAIN DOES NOT

LEAVE THE EU ON OCTOBER 31ST, DO YOU

THINK THAT WILL BE A GOOD THING OR A

BAD THING FOR THE COUNTRY, OR WILL IT

MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?


GOOD THING

BAD THING

MAKES NO DIFFERENCE

DON’T KNOW

Impact of a Brexit

extension beyond

October 31st




Responsibility for delaying Britain leaving the European Union

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 334 who think Brexit delay is a good thing, 389 who think Brexit delay is a bad thing, 25-28 October 2019

AND IF BRITAIN DOES NOT LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 31ST OF OCTOBER, WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE

FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK WOULD BE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DELAY?

3%

2%

13%

6%

28%

13%

6%

18%

14%

19%

34%

19%

44%

2%

2%

3%

10%

8%

18%

31%

20%

26%

20%

9%

42%

56%

Among allAmong those who think the Brexit

delay is a good thing

Among those who think the Brexit

delay is a bad thing

4%

1%

3%

8%

10%

16%

17%

17%

18%

19%

19%

21%

30%

50%

Don't know

No-one

Other

Brexit campaigners

Judges and the courts

The Conservative Party

The European Union

The speaker

The Labour Party

Remain Campaigners

Other opposition parties

Boris Johnson

Jeremy Corbyn

MPs in Parliament


8%

25%

32%

15%

20%

SINCE BORIS JOHNSON BECAME

PRIME MINISTER, WHAT EFFECT, IF

ANY, DO YOU THINK HE HAS HAD

ON BRITAIN’S STANDING IN THE

WORLD? DO YOU THINK HE HAS:


IMPROVED IT A LOT

MADE IT A LITTLE WORSE

DON’T KNOW

Boris Johnson’s

impact on Britain’s

standing in the world


IMPROVED IT A LITTLE

MADE IT A LITTLE WORSE

IMPROVED BRITAIN’S

STANDING

33%

MADE BRITAIN’S

STANDING WORSE

35%

MADE NO DIFFERENCE


27%

16%

54%

3%

23%

36%

37%

4%

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT 12

MONTHS, DO YOU THINK THE BRITISH

ECONOMY WILL BE BETTER OR

WORSE OFF THAN MOST OF THE

OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, OR

WILL IT BE ABOUT THE SAME?


BETTER OFF

WORSE OFF

ABOUT THE SAME

DON’T KNOW

Nov ‘11Oct ‘19Future of the British

economy compared

to Europe



Government’s

performance

managing the

economy


SINCE THE GOVERNMENT

UNDER BORIS JOHNSON WAS

FORMED IN JULY, DO YOU THINK

THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A

GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT

MANAGING THE ECONOMY?

c 36%

47%

56%

42%

51%

40%

55%

46%

37%

47%

30%

41%

GOOD JOB BAD JOB

October 2019

November 2016

May 2016

March 2015

March 2014

October 2011


-1

NET

GOOD JOB

+21

-5

+19

+1

-19



SINCE THE GOVERNMENT UNDER

BORIS JOHNSON WAS FORMED IN

JULY, DO YOU THINK THE

GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD

JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING

TAXATION AND EXPENDITURE?

c

Government’s

performance

handling taxation

and expenditure

32%

35%

37%

32%

60%

56%

54%

47%

GOOD JOB BAD JOB


October 2019

March 2015

March 2014

October 2011

NET

GOOD JOB

-15

-17

-21

-28


60%

50%

60%

52%

71%

62%59%

37% 36%

47%

56%

42%

51%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ap

r-98

Oct

-98

Ap

r-99

Oct

-99

Ap

r-00

Oct

-00

Ap

r-01

Oct

-01

Ap

r-02

Oct

-02

Ap

r-03

Oct

-03

Ap

r-04

Oct

-04

Ap

r-05

Oct

-05

Ap

r-06

Oct

-06

Ap

r-07

Oct

-07

Ap

r-08

Oct

-08

Ap

r-09

Oct

-09

Ap

r-10

Oct

-10

Ap

r-11

Oct

-11

Ap

r-12

Oct

-12

Ap

r-13

Oct

-13

Ap

r-14

Oct

-14

Ap

r-15

Oct

-15

Ap

r-16

Oct

-16

Ap

r-17

Oct

-17

Ap

r-18

Oct

-18

Ap

r-19

Oct

-19


LABOUR GOVERNMENT (1997-2010) CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT (2010-)

% G

OO

D J

OB

April 1998 – October 2019


SINCE THE GOVERNMENT UNDER BORIS JOHNSON WAS FORMED IN JULY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD

JOB OR A BAD JOB AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?

40%

Oct ‘19

Government’s performance managing the economy


43%

44%

36%34%

45%

52%

43%

31% 32%35%

37%32%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ap

r-98

Oct

-98

Ap

r-99

Oct

-99

Ap

r-00

Oct

-00

Ap

r-01

Oct

-01

Ap

r-02

Oct

-02

Ap

r-03

Oct

-03

Ap

r-04

Oct

-04

Ap

r-05

Oct

-05

Ap

r-06

Oct

-06

Ap

r-07

Oct

-07

Ap

r-08

Oct

-08

Ap

r-09

Oct

-09

Ap

r-10

Oct

-10

Ap

r-11

Oct

-11

Ap

r-12

Oct

-12

Ap

r-13

Oct

-13

Ap

r-14

Oct

-14

Ap

r-15

Oct

-15

Ap

r-16

Oct

-16

Ap

r-17

Oct

-17

Ap

r-18

Oct

-18

Ap

r-19

Oct

-19

Government’s performance handling taxation and expenditure


LABOUR GOVERNMENT (1997-2010) CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT (2010-)

% G

OO

D J

OB

April 1998 – October 2019


32%

SINCE THE GOVERNMENT UNDER BORIS JOHNSON WAS FORMED IN JULY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A

GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING TAXATION AND EXPENDITURE?

Oct ‘19


CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY SAJID JAVID IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR

OF THE EXCHEQUER?

Sajid Javid


37%

32%

30%

DISSATISFIED

SATISFIEDDON’T KNOW

NET = 5

66%9%

25%

Among all Among Conservative party supporters

DON’T KNOW

DISSATISFIED

SATISFIED

NET = 57

Satisfaction



CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY SAJID JAVID IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR

OF THE EXCHEQUER?

Satisfaction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mar-

76

Mar-

77

Ap

r-78

Jul-

80

Mar-

82

Jun

-83

Mar-

85

Mar-

86

Mar-

87

Mar-

88

Mar-

89

Mar-

90

Mar-

91

Mar-

92

Mar-

93

Dec-

93

Dec-

94

No

v-9

5

Dec-

95

No

v-9

6

Dec-

96

Jul-

97

Feb

-98

Mar-

98

Mar-

99

Feb

-00

Mar-

00

Jul-

00

Sep

-00

No

v-0

0

Mar-

01

Ap

r-02

Ap

r-03

Mar-

04

No

v-0

5

Feb

-06

Dec-

06

Ap

r-07

Mar-

08

Mar-

10

Jun

-10

Mar-

11

Dec-

11

Ap

r-12

Mar-

13

Ap

r-14

Mar-

15

Jul-

15

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

No

v-1

6

Mar-

17

No

v-1

7

No

v-1

8

Oct

-19

HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND

% S

AT

ISFIE

D

March 1976 – October 2019


JAVID


WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE

THE MOST CAPABLE CHANCELLOR,

THE CONSERVATIVE’S SAJID JAVID

OR LABOUR’S JOHN MCDONNELL?

Most capable


35%

36%

29%

34%

35%

36%

40%

38%

41%

46%

46%

41%

45%

36%

35%

37%

34%

38%

35%

29%

33%

30%

29%

28%

32%

24%

March 2011

March 2012

June 2012

December 2012

June 2013

August 2013

December 2013

March 2014

March 2015

February 2016

November 2016

November 2017

October 2019

Sajid Javid John McDonnell

Philip Hammond John McDonnell

George Osborne Ed Balls


George Osborne John McDonnell

Chancellor of

the Exchequer

October 2019


I’D LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT HOW MUCH THE GOVERNMENT SPENDS ON PUBLIC SERVICES, WHICH IS FUNDED BY TAXATION OR

GOVERNMENT BORROWING. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO? AND

WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT WILL DO?

Government spending: increase, maintain or reduce?


.

GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO

INCREASE SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES

GOVERNMENT BORROWING

EVEN IF THAT MEANS HIGHER TAXES OR MORE

KEEP SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES AT

THE CURRENT LEVEL

REDUCE SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES, TO

ALLOW FOR TAX CUTS OR LESS

GOVERNMENT BORROWING

DON’T KNOW

7%

30%

28%

35%

3%

10%

31%

56%

7%

33%

36%

24%

6%

8%

20%

66%

October 2019 October 2018

The Government should do

They will do



October 2018Ipsos MORIOctober 2019 Political Monitor

Gideon Skinner

Research Director

[email protected]

Keiran Pedley

Research Director

[email protected]

Glenn Gottfried

Research Manager

[email protected]

For more information

october 2019 political monitor · labour 24% general election % oct ‘19 johnson as pm (july 19)...

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