odin norden - skaper verdier for fremtiden · 2015-02-06 · odin norden – december 2014...

ODIN Norden Årskommentar 2014

Fondens portfölj

ODIN Norden – december 2014

Avkastning senaste månaden och hittills i år

• Fonden levererade en avkastning på -0,8 procent den senaste månaden. Avkastningen för fondens

referensindex under samma tidsperiod var -1,5 procent.

• Fondens avkastning hittills i år är 5,5 procent. Referensindex avkastning hittills i år är 9,8 procent.

Köp och försäljning i fonden, senaste månaden och hittills i år

• Denna månad har vi sålt aktier i Aker, Lifco och Wilh. Wilhelmsen och köpt aktier i Carlsberg, Kone, Kongsberg

Gruppen och Nokian Renkaat.

• I år är de största förändringarna i portföljen köp av Telenor, Kone, DSV, Assa Abloy, Indutrade, Intrum Justitia

och Svenska Handelsbanken, och försäljning av aktier i bolagen TeliaSonera, Caverion, YIT, G4S, Austevoll,

Det norske oljeselskap, Infratek, Marine Harvest, SR-Bank, Boliden, Ncc, SKF, Sandvik och Wilh Wilhelmsen.

Bidragsgivare, senaste månaden och hittills i år

• De bästa bidragsgivarna till denna månads avkastning var Autoliv, Huhtamaki och Yara.

• De bolag som bidrog minst denna månad var DNB, Carlsbarg och Nokian Tyres.

• I år har bolagen Novo Nordisk, Protector Forsikring och Autoliv bidragit mest.

• De svagaste bidragen till avkastningen i år är Nokian Renkaat, Stolt-Nielsen och Subsea 7.

ODIN Norden – december 2014

Prissättning av fonden

• Fonden prissätts till 14,6 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat.

• Fonden ger en direktavkastning på 3,6 procent. Utöver detta tillkommer även återköp av aktier i bolagen.

• Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts fonden till 2,3 gånger.

• Innehaven i fonden har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 14,9 procent.

Prissättning av den nordiska aktiemarknaden– OMX VINX Benchmark Capped

• VINX Benchmark prissätts till 15,5 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat.

• VINX Benchmark ger en direktavkastning på 3,7 procent.

• Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts VINX Benchmark till 2,2 gånger.

• Bolagen på det nordiska har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 12,6 procent.

ODIN Norden Förvaltarnas årskommentar 2014

Förändringar av förvaltaransvaret

Via de landsspecifika fonderna ODIN Sverige, ODIN Finland och

ODIN Norge har ODIN som förvaltningsmiljö unika djupgående

kunskaper om de nordiska aktiemarknaderna.

För att säkerställa att denna kunskap kommer fonden ODIN Norden

till del på bästa möjliga sätt valde vi under 2014 att ändra lite på

förvaltningsansvaret i fonden.

Fonden förvaltas därför nu gemensamt av de tre förvaltarna för de

respektive landsspecifika fonderna, Vegard Søraunet, Truls Haugen

och Jarle Sjo.

En känsla av ansvar och ägandeskap är viktig för varje bra produkt.

Genom att kombinera förvaltaransvaret för de landsspecifika

fonderna med ODIN Norden säkrar vi ägarskapskänslan för de

positioner från de olika fonderna som läggs in i den nordiska

fonden. Samtidigt ser vi till att de bästa idéerna appliceras på både

de landsspecifika fonderna och den nordiska fonden samtidigt och

att positionerna på så vis motsvarar varandra.

Ökat fokus på värdeskapande

ODIN:s investeringsfilosofi sätter fokus på bolagens långsiktiga

förmåga att skapa värden.

Graden av värdeskapande kan förenklat kategoriseras så här:

1. Hög – Bolagens förmåga att generera lönsam tillväxt via unika

produkter, marknadspositioner och innovationstakt som skapar

prisledarskap är avgörande.

2. Varierande – Om bolaget är verksamt inom branscher där

värdeskapandet i stor grad styrs av stora svängningar över tid

angående tillgång och efterfrågan får värdegenereringen en cyklisk

karaktär.

3. Låg – Detta handlar om bolag som har problem med

lönsamheten och måste genomföra omstruktureringar för att över

huvud taget täcka sina kapitalkostnader. Långsiktigt värdeskapande

i denna typ av bolag är högst osäkert.

ODIN Norden är en fond som huvudsakligen fokuserar på stabilt

värdeskapande. Därför letar fonden efter bolag med historik och

egenskaper som tyder på detta och exponerar sig endast i liten grad

mot omstruktureringskandidater.

ODIN Norden

Ändringar i portföljen

För att säkerställa den långsiktiga värdegenereringsförmågan har

fonden under året gjort ytterligare förändringar av

bolagssammansättningen. Strategin har över tid varit att hitta högre

och mer stabil kapitalavkastning, samtidigt som priset vi betalar

måste stå i förhållande till vad bolagen levererar.

Fonden har koncentrerats ytterligare till färre positioner och bestod

vid årsskiftet av 28 positioner.

Nya bolag i portföljen under 2014 var Telenor, Kone, DSV, Assa

Abloy, Indutrade, Intrum Justitia samt Svenska Handelsbanken. Vi

deltog i börsnoteringen av svenska Lifco, men tilldelningen blev inte

som väntat och efter en stark kursutveckling valde vi att sälja ut oss

ur aktien.

Vi har också sålt oss ut ur Aker ASA, Wilh.Wilhelmsen, Stolt-

Nielsen,TeliaSonera, Caverion, YIT, Valmet, BWO, G4S, Austevoll,

Det norske oljeselskap, Infratek, Marine Harvest, SR-Bank, Boliden,

NCC, SKF och Sandvik.

Norden är en bra investeringsregion

Norden som investeringsregion har över tid kunnat visa till en

mycket god avkastning, även i jämförelse med andra centrala

investeringsregioner.

Detta beror till stor del på det faktum att de nordiska bolagen har

genererat en avkastning på egenkapitalet som ligger i paritet med

både europeiska och amerikanska bolag.

Sammantaget ger den nordiska investeringsregionen en bred

branschexponering som möjliggör god spridning över sektorer och

geografisk försäljningsbas.

ODIN Norden

Utsikter för framtiden

Vi anser att utsikterna för fondens bolag är goda. Med vårt fokus på

värdeskapande är avkastningen på egenkapitalet i förhållande till

vilket pris vi ska betala en central bedömningsparameter.

Den förväntade egenkapitalavkastningen för 2015 är nu högre i

fonden än för marknaden som helhet, 15 % respektive 13 %. Priset i

förhållande till bokförda värden på 2,1 är dock detsamma för fonden

som för marknaden.

De nordiska marknaderna har olika utmaningar framför sig.

Utvecklingen av oljepriset kommer att ha betydelse för den norska

marknaden och situationen i Ryssland kommer att ha störst

betydelse för Finland. De nordiska länderna är alla beroende av

export och därmed kommer utvecklingen av den globala

ekonomiska tillväxten spela stor roll. Svensk industri har under de

senaste decennierna haft stora framgångar med sina

exportinriktade bolag. Den svaga svenska kronan mot euron och

dollarn skapar attraktiva framtidsutsikter. Dessutom kommer

bolagens solida balanser och de låga räntorna att bidra till fortsatt

ökad uppköpsaktivitet.

ODIN Norden är en diversifierad aktiefond som ger investerare

exponering mot kvalitetsbolag i olika nordiska länder och inom olika

branscher. Många av bolagen i portföljen har stora andelar av sin

försäljning utanför Norden. ODIN Norden erbjuder därmed en global

och diversifierad exponering, men med nordisk gedigen

rapportering och ägarstyrning.

Nyckeltal och nyheter

från portföljen

– presenteras på engelska

ODIN Norden Index

Portfolio Return Last 5 years % (EUR)

Historical Return % (EUR)*

Portfolio

Benchmark

Exess Return

Last Month YTD

-0,75

-1,55

5,47

9,81

-4,33 0,79

3 Y

12,36

1 Y

5,47

5 Y

6,62

10 Y

6,68

Since

inception

12,61

9,97

2,64

9,81 17,53 13,37 9,54

-4,33 -5,17 -6,74 -2,87

* Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized

Annual returns last 10 years

Sector allocation

1,4

6,8

31,4

17,4

5,7

8,8

23,6

0,0

2,9

0,0

3,9

6,6

22,0

10,4

5,1

12,5

24,8

8,5

5,3

1,0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ODIN Norden Benchmark

11

Sector contribution, year to date

12

Current holdings

13

Contribution, year to date

14

Portfolio Index

-4,07

0,98

4,00

-1,36

Alpha

Beta

Tracking Error

Information Ratio

1,54 Sharpe Ratio 1) 2,15

10,83 Standard Deviation 2)

1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate.

2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility.

10,28

Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years

15

ODIN Norden Significant Portfolio changes year to date

0

4 2 2

-5 -7

-2

-5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Number of changes in portfolio year to date

Buy

Sell

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

+ - + - + - + -

In o

r o

ut

Marine Harvest

Infratek

G4S

Austevoll

Valmet

DSV

Indutrade

Handelsbanken

KONE

DetNor

YIT

Caverion

Sandvik

Boliden

SR-bank

BWO

Assa Abloy

Intrum Justitia

SKF

NCC

Telenor

Lifco

TeliaSonera

Stolt-Nielsen

Lifco

Aker

Wilh.

Wilhelmsen

Up

or

do

wn

Novo Nordisk

SCA

SR-bank Novo Nordisk

Amer

Nokian Tyres

Atlas Copco

Stolt-Nielsen Kone

DSV

Metso

Carlsberg

Intrum Justitia

Atlas Copco

Assa Abloy

H&M

Indutrade

SCA

Protector

Forsikting

Securitas

16

Pricing of the fund

Company Weight Country Industry P/E (LTM)* P/E (NTM)* DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM) P/B ROE

Novo Nordisk A/S Class B 8,9% Denmark Pharmaceuticals 26,0 22,5 1,8 2,1 16,1 61,9

Autoliv Inc Shs Swedish DR 6,6% Sweden Auto Components 19,7 17,1 1,8 2,0 2,8 14,2

Hennes & Mauritz AB Class B 5,3% Sweden Specialty Retail 26,8 23,8 3,1 3,4 10,8 40,3

Atlas Copco AB Class B 5,1% Sweden Machinery 19,0 16,7 3,0 3,2 5,4 28,3

Nordea Bank AB 4,6% Sweden Banks 11,3 10,4 5,7 6,9 1,3 11,2

Sampo Oyj Class A 4,4% Finland Insurance 14,2 13,8 4,9 5,4 1,9 13,6

Huhtamaki Oyj 3,8% Finland Containers & Packaging 17,7 15,1 2,7 3,2 2,6 15,0

Kone Oyj Class B 3,8% Finland Machinery 24,6 22,2 3,0 3,2 9,8 40,0

DNB ASA 3,4% Norway Banks 8,8 8,8 3,3 4,5 1,1 12,9

ABB Ltd. 3,4% Sweden Electrical Equipment 18,6 15,9 3,3 3,5 2,7 14,7

Topp 10 49,3% 17,6 15,9 3,1 3,5 3,0 17,1

ODIN Norden 15,6 14,6 3,3 3,6 2,3 14,9

* NTM = Next 12 months

LTM = Last 12 months

Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares

17

MSCI World Price, Earnings and P/E

18

MSCI World Price, Book Value and P/B

19

OECD Leading indicator Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area

20

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic growth forecast 2014 - updated October

21

Investments

- ODIN Norden

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

des.09 des.10 des.11 des.12 des.13 des.14

Performance - last 5 years

ABB Ltd. OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR

Market Value (mill.) 386,457 Price 166.00 SEK

Net debt (mill.) 9,878 USD

Enterprise Value (mill.) 396,335 0.96

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 31,795 31,589 37,990 39,336 41,842 38,026 38,226

EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 3,797 4,010 5,125 4,348 4,795 4,038 4,492

Net Income (mill.) 2,884 2,551 3,159 2,700 2,824 2,528 2,887

Price/Earnings 15.7 19.8 15.0 15.4 20.9 18.6 15.9

Price/Book Value 3.4 3.7 2.7 2.8 3.5 2.7 2.7

EV/EBIT 9.2 10.5 8.7 10.8 12.9 12.3 11.0

Return on Equity (%) 23.6 18.5 19.7 16.8 16.0 14.7 16.8

Dividend Yield (%) 2.5 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.9 3.3 3.5

ABB Ltd. Industrial Conglomerates

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

ABB was formed in 1988 through the merger of

Swiss Brown Boveri and Swedish Asean. The

companies were founded in 1883 and 1891,

respectively. Today, ABB's portfolio covers

electricals, automation, controls and

instrumentation for power generation and

processes, power transmission and distribution

solutions, low voltage products, motors and

drives, intelligent building systems and robot

systems.

-------------------------------------------------------

ABB is a global leader in power and automation

technologies. With innovative employees in more

than 100 countries ABB has leading market

positions in many of its core markets. The long

term business trends of increased energy

efficiency and higher degree of automation are

strong growth drivers for the business longer term.

With their market leading products in automation

and high end power they can enable a premium

price strategy. We find the shares undervalued .

We think they can continue to execute on their

acquisition strategy with their strong balance

sheet. In addition they have a solid cash flow and

a strong return on capital.

ABB

23

24

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50

100

150

200

250

300



Amer Sports Oyj Class A OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR

Market Value (mill.) 1,920 Price 16.20 EUR

Net debt (mill.) 432 EUR


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 1,533 1,740 1,881 2,064 2,137 2,212 2,352

EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 31 86 136 123 144 157 196

Net Income (mill.) 31 64 86 57 90 61 125

Price/Earnings 32.1 16.8 11.8 17.3 30.9 19.3 14.8

Price/Book Value 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.2

EV/EBIT 33.4 18.9 11.3 14.3 15.4 14.9 11.7

Return on Equity (%) 5.3 9.1 11.4 7.4 11.9 12.5 14.9

Dividend Yield (%) 2.2 2.5 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.6 3.3

Amer Sports Oyj Class A Recreational Products

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Amer Sports manufactures and sells sports

equipment, footwear, apparel and accessories. It

operates under three segments: Winter &

Outdoor, Ball Sports and Fitness. Its major

brands include Salomon, Atomic, Arc’teryx,

Bonfire, Mavic, Suunto, Wilson, and DeMarini.

-------------------------------------------------------

With a portfolio of strong global sporting goods

brands, Amer Sports is being transformed from a

slowly growing sporting equipment company (hard

goods) into a "hybrid" with leading market

positions in both hard goods and soft goods

(apparel and footwear).

The organic top-line growth target of at least 5% is

achievable as long as soft goods continues to

grow at a double-digit.

The share of soft goods has increased from 24%

in 2010 to 33% in 2013 and is expected to be

around 40% in 2016. By the end of this decade,

the split is likely to be 50/50.

Amer Sports targets an operating margin of 10%

in the mid-term. This target can be achieved in the

best case already in 2016, compared with 7-5-

8.0% in 2014e.

Amer Sports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350



ASSA ABLOY AB Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) 17,499 SEK


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 34,963 36,823 41,786 46,619 48,481 56,564 61,695


Net Income (mill.) 2,626 4,050 3,439 5,101 4,783 6,362 7,330

Price/Earnings 20.3 21.8 13.3 23.3 23.4 24.3 21.1

Price/Book Value 2.7 3.6 2.7 3.6 4.6 4.7 4.1

EV/EBIT 11.4 13.3 11.7 13.8 18.0 18.9 16.4

Return on Equity (%) 13.9 20.3 15.6 20.4 17.3 19.3 19.2

Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.7

ASSA ABLOY AB Class B Industrial Machinery

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Assa Abloy is the largest global supplier of

intelligent lock and security solutions. The

company was formed in 1994 through the merger

of Assa in Sweden and Abloy in Finland. Since

then Assa Abloy has grown from a regional

company to an international group with around

43,000 employees and annual sales of over SEK

48 billion.

------------------------------------------------------------

A good industry to be in, with high barriers to

entry. Assa Abloy is the number one global market

leader, and also twice the size of the next

competitor. Increased wealth, urbanization and

rapid shift to new technologies create underlying

strong demand and good growth prospects for

access controls. Assa Abloy is spending a lot of

money on innovation and product launches within

their portfolio of companies. In addition, ongoing

efficiency programs are likely to reduce cost and

increase profitability. The company aim to achieve

10% annual growth with an EBIT-margin between

16-17%.

Assa Abloy

25

26

0

50

100

150

200

250



Atlas Copco AB Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 63,762 69,875 81,203 90,533 83,888 93,350 100,068


Net Income (mill.) 6,244 9,921 12,963 13,901 12,072 12,413 14,326

Price/Earnings 15.2 21.2 12.7 13.8 15.8 18.8 16.5

Price/Book Value 4.9 7.1 6.0 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.6

EV/EBIT 13.9 13.9 10.0 10.5 12.2 15.6 13.6

Return on Equity (%) 25.4 36.3 44.8 43.5 32.3 28.2 27.7

Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 2.5 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.3

Atlas Copco AB Class B Industrial Machinery

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Atlas Copco is an industrial group with world-

leading positions in compressors, expanders and

air treatment systems, construction and mining

equipment, power tools and assembly systems.

With innovative products and services, Atlas

Copco delivers solutions for sustainable

productivity.

---------------------------------------------------------

Atlas Copco is a strong value creator over time.

The company has strong customer relationships

which provides service-revenues of 40% of total

revenues. With high-single digit organic top line

growth in the coming years we think the share is

undervalued. We believe the company is able to

turn its construction technique division around and

create better margins. The main risk is failure to

protect its current returns on capital.

Atlas Copco B

27

0

50

100

150

200

250

300



Autoliv Inc. OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) -3,210 USD


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 5,121 7,171 8,232 8,267 8,803 9,219 9,592


Net Income (mill.) 10 591 623 483 486 535 580

Price/Earnings - 15.2 7.8 12.7 6.7 18.4 16.0

Price/Book Value 1.6 2.5 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.6

EV/EBIT 21.7 8.6 5.6 8.6 10.4 11.6 10.9

Return on Equity (%) 0.4 22.2 19.9 13.6 12.6 14.1 16.0

Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.4 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.0 2.1

Autoliv Inc. Auto Parts: OEM

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Autoliv, Inc. develops and manufactures

automotive safety systems for automotive

manufacturers. The Company's products include

seat belts, airbags, anti-whiplash seats, child

restraints, and leg protection equipment. Autoliv

tests cars and products at crash test tracks in

several countries.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Autoliv is a worldwide leader in automotive safety,

a pioneer in both seatbelts and airbags, and a

technology leader with the widest product offering

for automotive safety. Main part of sales today

come from airbags and seatbelts. Active safety will

be an important driver going forward. More

security content in cars and a huge market for

Autoliv in China are the main drivers for

fundamental development. Valuation is attractive

and we expect the company to utilize their balance

sheet going forward. A bigger acquisition could be

on the agenda.

Autoliv

0

50

100

150

200

250



Carlsberg A/S Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR

Market Value (mill.) 74,195 Price 476.80 DKK

Net debt (mill.) 36,497 DKK


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 59,382 60,054 63,561 67,201 66,552 65,270 65,885


Net Income (mill.) 3,602 5,351 5,149 5,607 5,471 5,270 5,534

Price/Earnings 17.5 15.7 13.6 13.3 20.1 13.2 12.6

Price/Book Value 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.9

EV/EBIT 11.2 13.3 11.2 13.3 13.2 11.4 10.9

Return on Equity (%) 6.5 9.0 7.9 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.5

Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.9 2.1

Carlsberg A/S Class B Beverages: Alcoholic

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Carlsberg is one of the world's largest brewers. It

has more than 200 brands, but most of its

revenues come from its key brands - Carlsberg,

Tuborg, Baltika and Kronenbourg - and some very

strong local brands including Holsten, Ringnes

and Okocim.

------------------------------------------------------------

Carlsberg is a cheap, high quality consumer

goods company.

Perception due to the large share of company

earnings in Russia, have put pressure on the

share-price. Political incentives to reduce alcohol

consumption in Russia, have made volumes drop

by 30% and taxes/prices to increase. Carlsberg

still has a 23% ebit-margin in the area.

As beer consumption in mature western European

markets declines, the company continue its Global

Supply Chain program to increase profitability in

north-western Europe. Carlsberg targets an

average annual margin improvement of at least 50

basis points in the period 2012-17.

The company has publicly stated that it is looking

to expand primarily in Asia through acquisitions. In

addition, they continue to increase positions in

companies with minority interests.

Carlsberg

28

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50

100

150

200

250



DNB ASA OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR

Market Value (mill.) 180,960 Price 111.10 NOK

Net debt (mill.) 804,879 NOK


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 93,105 93,376 90,515 98,989 98,124 49,739 50,378

EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 28,946 29,387

Net Income (mill.) 8,505 14,739 12,984 13,561 17,522 20,843 20,427

Price/Earnings 10.0 11.8 6.7 8.2 11.3 8.8 8.8

Price/Book Value 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.0

EV/EBIT - - - - - - -

Return on Equity (%) 9.7 14.0 11.3 11.0 13.0 12.9 11.9

Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 4.2 4.3 2.9 2.4 3.4 4.5

DNB ASA Financial Conglomerates

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

DNB is Norway's largest financial services group

and one of the largest in the Nordic region. The

company offers a full range of financial services,

including loans, savings, advisory services,

insurance and pension products for retail and

corporate customers.

------------------------------------------------------------

Net interest margin has increased the last few

years, and together with the bank’s strong

investment bank division (DnB Markets), earnings

have grown substantially.

Although the bank navigated well through the

financial crisis, investors are concerned with

Norwegian economy given the deteriorated

outlook with oil-related industries. We believe the

bank will manage to avoid large loan losses going

forward and find the valuation attractive.

DNB

29

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50

100

150

200

250



DSV A/S OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) 5,949 DKK


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 36,085 42,562 43,710 44,912 45,710 48,549 50,874


Net Income (mill.) 185 1,184 1,440 1,427 1,577 1,535 1,951

Price/Earnings 522.2 26.6 14.9 20.0 20.2 18.4 16.2

Price/Book Value 3.6 4.0 3.5 4.9 5.3 5.2 4.8

EV/EBIT 15.4 14.6 11.2 13.3 15.1 14.9 13.5

Return on Equity (%) 4.0 19.7 24.3 26.9 27.3 28.1 29.4

Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0

DSV A/S Trucking

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

DSV is a leading European freight forwarder and

logistics company. DSV Road is one of the three

leading logistics providers in Europe. DSV Air &

Sea offers logistical services to and from all parts

of the world. DSV Solutions is basically supply

chain management and logistics solutions.

-------------------------------------------------------------

DSV has an asset light strategy, controlling the

cargo but outsourcing the actual transportation

task rather than having trucks, container ships and

aircraft on its own balance sheet.

The company has very stable margins due to its

flexible cost structure and asset light business

model.

DSV generates a high free cash flow. DSV’s cash

allocation and dividend policy is very straight

forward; repay interest-bearing debt until it is

below target NIBD/EVBITA of < 2.0x, invest in

value-added acquisitions, she rest goes to share

buybacks and dividends.

DSV will be able to improve operating profit and

EPS growth thanks to a combination of a positive

market outlook, a cost-efficient business model

and the impact from cost initiatives in Road and

Solutions, as well as Air & Sea further market

share gains.

DSV

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Hennes & Mauritz AB Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) -17,224 SEK


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 101,393 108,483 109,999 120,799 128,562 151,096 171,816


Net Income (mill.) 16,384 18,681 15,821 16,867 17,152 19,896 22,622

Price/Earnings 22.3 20.3 22.2 21.1 27.3 27.2 24.0

Price/Book Value 9.9 10.0 9.3 9.3 11.7 10.9 9.7

EV/EBIT 14.7 14.9 16.3 15.6 20.0 20.3 17.8

Return on Equity (%) 42.2 44.1 35.8 38.4 38.5 40.2 40.6

Dividend Yield (%) 3.9 3.8 4.4 4.4 3.4 3.1 3.4

Hennes & Mauritz AB Class B Apparel/Footwear Retail

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Hennes & Mauritz AB (H&M) designs and retails

cheap fashions for women, men, teens, and

children. H&M is together with their Spanish

competitor Inditex, true global retailers. Inditex has

3 times more shops than H&M This makes H&M’s

expansion potential far greater. H&M opens one

shop every single day, a fantastic opportunity to

get further scale and reach.

------------------------------------------------------------

We are not fan of the rapidly changing fashion

industry, but find H&M’s expansion story attractive.

The fashion risk is not what it used to be, as

basics and collection turnover are higher. The new

generation Persson have made substantial

investments in a number of growth initiatives. The

new online rollout, new store concepts and better

logistics have negatively affected profit and loss

accounts and investment budgets.

We really like the combination of strong return on

capital, a decent valuation, a very solid corporate

culture, a true topline story, scale and the payoff to

come from high investments over the last few

years. All this will make material effect on the

fundamental development of the company

together with the ongoing cost culture. That’s

fashion for us!

H&M

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Huhtamaki Oyj OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 2,038 1,952 2,044 2,335 2,342 2,431 2,594


Net Income (mill.) 71 93 81 124 94 126 152

Price/Earnings - 12.5 9.5 10.6 18.1 17.8 15.2

Price/Book Value 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.5 2.5 2.7 2.4

EV/EBIT 13.1 13.1 12.5 12.2 16.5 15.9 13.1

Return on Equity (%) 11.4 13.4 10.6 15.0 11.4 15.0 16.0

Dividend Yield (%) 2.7 3.8 5.0 4.4 3.0 2.7 3.2

Huhtamaki Oyj Containers/Packaging

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Huhtamaki is a global consumer packaging

company, with sales to defensive sectors: food,

foodservice and personal care. Group reporting is

in five divisions: Flexibles, Films, North America,

Molded Fiber and Foodservice.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Huhtamäki’s sales and earnings are broadly

diversified in terms of regions, customers and

product areas.

North America is the largest market at around

30% of sales. Emerging Markets (EM) account for

29% of group revenues, with Asia being 18% of

group. EM will likely grow to nearly 40% of group,

if the Positive Packaging acquisition is closed and

Films is divested.

Demand for consumer packaging in developed

countries is typically relatively stable, irrespective

of macroeconomic cycles. In emerging markets

demand is growing fast, creating the potential for

organic growth.

Profitability and cash generation imply a stable

and competitive business model. Huhtamaki also

has a good track record of growing by

acquisitions. The company targets annual organic

growth of at least 5% and an EBIT margin of at

least 8% in 2015.

Huhtamäki

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Indutrade AB OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 6,271 6,745 7,994 8,384 8,831 9,773 10,424

EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 501 616 820 769 832 975 1,079

Net Income (mill.) 341 407 540 565 587 686 765

Price/Earnings 14.4 22.9 15.5 14.8 18.0 15.3 14.0

Price/Book Value 3.5 5.5 3.8 3.8 4.5 4.2 3.7

EV/EBIT 12.4 17.1 10.6 13.1 15.5 15.5 13.5

Return on Equity (%) 21.0 24.0 28.4 26.0 23.9 27.6 26.3

Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 2.1 3.5 3.5 2.6 2.6 2.9

Indutrade AB Industrial Machinery

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Indutrade AB provides engineering and

equipment, flow technology, industrial

components, and special products. The Company

sells its products to industrial companies primarily

in Northern Europe. The group consists of some

180 independent subsidiaries in 26 countries over

four continents. The foundation of their business

model is to acquire many small companies with

strong positions in a narrow niche at low prices.

------------------------------------------------------------Indut

rade has an impressing track record when it

comes to profitable growth. The last 10 years they

have had a top-line CAGR of 10.7%, while the

average return on equity has been 29% over the

same period. We believe the company will

continue its profitable growth through a

combination of acquisitions and organic growth.

We find value in the de-centralized model where

benchmarking and best corporate examples are a

strong internal driver in the business.

Indutrade

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Intrum Justitia AB OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 4,128 3,766 3,950 4,056 4,566 5,154 5,461

EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 783 754 901 896 1,202 1,444 1,530

Net Income (mill.) 441 452 551 584 817 998 1,015

Price/Earnings 18.1 17.6 16.8 13.5 19.0 17.9 16.9

Price/Book Value 3.0 3.3 3.2 2.8 4.7 5.9 5.9

EV/EBIT 11.6 13.7 12.4 12.1 15.4 16.3 15.7

Return on Equity (%) 17.8 17.6 20.5 20.0 26.1 32.7 35.1

Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 3.6 4.1 5.0 3.1 2.9 3.2

Intrum Justitia AB Miscellaneous Commercial Services

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Intrum Justitia AB provides credit management

services and solutions. The Company offers

commercial and consumer debt collection, debt

surveillance, international debt collection,

purchased debt services, sales ledger

administration, and optimization services. Intrum

Justitia serves customers worldwide.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Intrum Justitia is one of Europe’s leading providers

of credit management services. The company is

riding on the wave of European overdue debt. It

has successfully capitalized on market

opportunities in recent years. We expect this to

continue as the long term market prospects look

favorable. In addition, we find the management

disciplined and appreciate the fact that they are

conservative in bidding for purchase debt

portfolios. Their business model differs somewhat

to many competitors only focusing on purchased

debt since they know clients and portfolios due to

their credit management services. We think this is

important long term and creates barriers to entry.

Intrum Justitia

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Investor AB Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 35,262 36,181 1,898 42,372 61,569 - -

EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - - -

Net Income (mill.) 31,379 30,713 -9,229 24,226 45,165 - -

Price/Earnings 9.6 6.0 - 5.0 4.0 20.0 25.9

Price/Book Value 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0

EV/EBIT - - - - - - -

Return on Equity (%) 24.3 19.6 -5.7 14.6 23.2 4.8 3.7

Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 3.3 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.5

Investor AB Class B Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Investor AB is a holding company, which owns

significant interests in Atlas Copco, ABB, SEB and

AstraZeenca. Through the Boards of Directors,

Investor AB actively work for continuous

improvement of the performance of the

companies. engages in the investment activities.

Its ownership horizon is long term and returns are

mainly generated via value appreciation, share

redemptions and dividends. The company was

founded in 1916 and is headquartered in

Stockholm, Sweden.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Investor focus on high quality companies with

good return on capital, potential to improve long-

term profitability and efficiency, and ability to grow.

It has proved to be successful in the past and we

strongly believe this will be the case in the future

as well. Two third of their holdings are listed and

one third are unlisted. Through our investment in

Investor we get exposure to more of the type of

companies we like at a discount and we get

access to the exciting unlisted assets, which

mainly are, Mölnlycke and EQT. We also see

further room for strong value generation from their

smaller unlisted assets.

Investor AB

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Kone is global no. 3 Elevator and Escalator

company with a 19% mkt share in new equipment

units and 13% overall mkt share in equipment and

services. Services, consisting of maintenance and

modernization, make up 50% of sales. New

elevators and escalators stand for the remaining

50% of revenue. Kone's top-4 markets in terms of

revenue are China, US, France and UK.

-------------------------------------------------------

KONE is perfectly positioned to benefit from the

megatrends driving the elevator and escalator

industry: urbanization, safety, changing

demographics and environment.

The company runs a capital light business model,

which generates strong cash flows.

KONE has strong service growth potential after

the long spree of elevator deliveries in past years.

China Maintenance represents the single largest

opportunity for Kone.

Its main competitors are Otis, Schindler and

ThyssenKrupp. KONE may become no.2 E&E

company in 2015 as the gap to Schindler has

shrunk to basically zero.

Kone

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Kone Oyj Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) -750 EUR


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 4,744 4,987 5,225 6,277 6,933 7,403 8,049

EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 578 651 688 786 898 1,044 1,168

Net Income (mill.) 466 535 644 601 702 792 879

Price/Earnings 16.9 20.0 17.9 21.5 23.9 24.5 22.2

Price/Book Value 6.5 7.6 5.9 6.8 9.0 9.8 8.4

EV/EBIT 12.3 15.3 13.8 17.3 18.0 18.0 15.9

Return on Equity (%) 39.2 36.4 35.5 30.7 39.2 40.0 38.1

Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 2.4 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2

Kone Oyj Class B Engineering & Construction

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

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Kongsberg Gruppen ASA OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) -2,108 NOK


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 13,816 15,497 15,128 15,652 16,323 16,659 17,085


Net Income (mill.) 820 1,495 1,431 1,325 1,228 1,134 1,240

Price/Earnings 15.2 12.6 8.7 10.8 13.2 13.1 11.9

Price/Book Value 3.1 3.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.9

EV/EBIT 7.3 6.3 5.6 7.0 8.0 7.6 6.6

Return on Equity (%) 29.4 34.9 27.7 22.6 19.0 15.8 16.0

Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 2.5 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.6 4.0

Kongsberg Gruppen ASA Aerospace & Defense

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Kongsberg Gruppen is a global company

operating within the oil & gas,- maritime, - and

defence sectors worldwide. The company supplies

high-technology systems and solutions. The

company is well-known for its strong R&D

capabilities and has proven asset-light model with

strong returns on capital.

------------------------------------------------------------

Kongsberg Gruppen operates in markets with high

barriers to entry and has strong niche positions in

different product groups. Consequently the

company has an outstanding track record in value

creation. We think the company will continue its

top-line growth based on strong competitive

positions built over the last few years. The risk to

our investment case is austerity measures on the

defence side which we have seen over the last

couple of years, and falling capex among oil

companies on the offshore/maritime side.

Government of Norway is a majority owner.

Kongsberg Gruppen

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Metso Oyj OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 5,016 5,552 6,646 7,504 3,858 3,617 3,570


Net Income (mill.) 150 257 356 373 238 213 262

Price/Earnings 14.7 30.1 13.8 11.4 18.2 14.5 13.9

Price/Book Value 2.2 3.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 3.0 2.8

EV/EBIT 12.2 17.6 8.0 8.6 11.9 9.9 9.3

Return on Equity (%) 9.3 13.4 17.1 17.3 14.1 20.7 20.0

Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 3.2 5.8 5.7 3.9 4.1 4.5

Metso Oyj Industrial Machinery

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Metso is a global provider of minerals processing

solutions for mining and aggregates industries and

flow control solutions for oil and gas, mining and

pulp & Paper industries. 51% of total sales is

service offerings ranging from wear and spare

parts, maintenance and repairs to performance

services. In 2013, Emerging Markets accounted

for 56% of orders received.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Perception about to change. Metso is still valued

as a low quality and volatile company. The

de-merger of Valmet and the exit from risky mining

projects/big size projects, have changed the risk

profile.

If the 2015 margins continues to improve the

market will increasingly start to price Metso on

reaching the mid 2017 EBITA margin target of

>15%.

On the negative side are the fact that Mining

capex is unlikely to recover any time soon and

that quarterly performance fluctuations still are too

high.

However, high margin Automation (Flow Control)

accounting for some 25% of the earnings and high

margin stable Service sales more than 50% of

total.

Metso

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Nokian Renkaat Oyj OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) -56 EUR


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 799 1,058 1,457 1,612 1,521 1,384 1,378


Net Income (mill.) 58 170 309 331 184 214 228

Price/Earnings 113.3 25.4 11.6 11.7 15.0 12.6 11.9

Price/Book Value 2.9 4.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 1.9 1.9

EV/EBIT 24.7 16.7 8.9 9.9 12.5 8.5 8.6

Return on Equity (%) 7.6 20.0 29.1 25.2 13.0 15.3 16.1

Dividend Yield (%) 1.9 2.0 4.3 4.6 4.2 7.1 7.4

Nokian Renkaat Oyj Automotive Aftermarket

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Nokian manufactures tires in areas with special

challenges for tire performance, snow, forest and

harsh driving conditions in different seasons. NT is

the leading winter tire brand in the world. The tire

chain Vianor, operates as a wholesaler and a

retailer.

-------------------------------------------------------------

With 1/3 of sales and 75% of number of tires

produced in Russia, the turmoil in Ukraine/Russia

and the weak Russian economy has impacted the

company negatively.

The company still has an excellent profitability as

it is both the price leader in its core markets and

the cost leader in the industry thanks to its highly

automated production in Russia.

The large growth upside in Russia is behind, so

now significant focus is on growing central

European presence. With top-rated products the

brand awareness in central Europe continues to

improve, enabling the company to gain shares

from its key rivals Continental and Michelin.

With a strong balance sheet and production

expansion in Russia completed, the company

generates a very strong cash flow from operations

Nokian

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Nordea Bank AB OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) 1,841,096 EUR

Enterprise Value (mill.) 2,210,047 0.96

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 15,472 14,386 16,844 17,279 18,485 10,247 10,228


Net Income (mill.) 2,314 2,657 2,627 3,119 3,107 3,344 3,738

Price/Earnings 10.0 12.9 9.2 9.4 12.8 11.3 10.3

Price/Book Value 1.3 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2

EV/EBIT - - - - - - -

Return on Equity (%) 11.6 11.3 10.5 11.5 10.7 11.2 11.8

Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 3.5 4.5 4.4 4.1 5.8 7.0

Nordea Bank AB Regional Banks

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Nordea is a commercial bank created through the

merger of Sweden's Nordbanken and Finland's

Merita bank in 1997, and the acquisitions of

Denmark's Unidanmark in 1999 and Norway's

Christiania Bank in 2000. Nordea is no.1, no.2 or

no.4 in all four Nordic markets, making it the

largest bank in the Nordic region. Retail Banking

comprises 50% of revenues, Wholesale Banking

25% and Wealth Management 15%.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Nordea is the most diversified Nordic Bank. Loan

losses are down to the lowest level in over six

years, and they are starting to deliver on their

ambitious cost savings plan.

As capital has reached the target level CET1 15%,

dividend will increase with an increasing dividend

payout ratio. The payout ratio might increase from

56% in 2013 to 67% in 2014 and 75% in 2016.

This translates to a 5.5-7.5%dividend yield.

Sampo is the main shareholder with approximately

21,2% of the outstanding shares.

Nordea

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Novo Nordisk A/S Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) -15,775 DKK


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 51,078 60,776 66,346 78,026 83,572 88,504 98,439


Net Income (mill.) 10,768 14,403 17,097 21,432 25,184 26,154 29,769

Price/Earnings 18.6 28.7 23.0 24.9 21.6 26.5 22.9

Price/Book Value 5.6 11.0 10.8 14.4 14.0 16.4 15.3

EV/EBIT 12.7 19.3 16.4 17.0 16.9 20.3 17.8

Return on Equity (%) 31.3 39.6 46.0 54.9 60.5 61.9 66.8

Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.0

Novo Nordisk A/S Class B Pharmaceuticals: Major

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Novo Nordisk is the world leader in diabetes care.

With the broadest diabetes product portfolio in the

industry, including the most advanced products

within the area of insulin delivery systems. In

addition, Novo has a leading position within areas

such as coagulation disorders, growth disorders

and hormone replacement therapy.

--------------------------------------------------------------

This strong and sustainable growth in earnings

reflects the characteristics of the group’s

businesses: Strong growth of its markets buoyed

by sustainable structural factors, positions as a

global leader, strong capital and technological

barriers to entry, which have resulted in an

oligopolistic market structure, high profitability

leading to considerable free cash flow generation.

This enables steady returns of cash to

shareholders.

Obesity is the main growth driver for diabetes

prevalence and thereby a very important long-term

growth driver for Novo Nordisk.

The news flow over the next 12 months should

convince the market that Novo Nordisk is

strengthening its competitive position in all

segments of the diabetes/obesity market.

Novo Nordisk

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Protector Forsikring ASA OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) -5 NOK


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 888 879 987 1,315 1,541 2,381 2,774

EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 445 481

Net Income (mill.) 193 142 -8 199 287 293 323

Price/Earnings 11.3 6.6 - 4.0 9.1 11.2 9.9

Price/Book Value 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.3 3.6 2.9

EV/EBIT - - - - - 8.2 7.4

Return on Equity (%) 42.1 24.6 -1.6 41.1 42.2 32.0 29.7

Dividend Yield (%) 10.8 12.2 3.5 6.7 8.4 4.4 5.0

Protector Forsikring ASA Multi-Line Insurance

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Protector Forsikring provides land-based

insurance for companies and public entities, and

distributes products through selected insurance

brokers. In the Norwegian market, Protector

Forsikring also sell ownership insurance via estate

agents and lawyers who have an agreement with

Protector. With a significant market share in

Norwegian brokered non-life, the company

entered into Sweden in 2011 and Denmark in

2012.

------------------------------------------------------------

Protector Forsikring has experience strong Gross

Written Premium (GWP) growth over the last

years (5Y CAGR of 23%) and we expect to see

significant growth potential in Scandinavia.

There is a potential for the company to further

export its business concept from the Norwegian

market, with low costs and utilization of its broker

network and municipal procurement standards.

Management has a long term Combined Ratio

(CR) target of 91%, which is lower than most of its

competitors.

We find the valuation of Protector Forsikring

attractive with strong top-line growth over the next

3 years and dividend yields of around 5%.

Protector

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Sampo Oyj Class A OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) 1,430 EUR


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 5,371 6,316 5,534 6,475 6,522 4,497 4,570


Net Income (mill.) 641 1,104 1,038 1,404 1,452 1,531 1,571

Price/Earnings 14.8 11.9 10.1 10.6 13.7 14.4 14.0

Price/Book Value 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.9

EV/EBIT - - - - - 13.8 14.8

Return on Equity (%) 10.5 13.4 11.7 14.8 14.0 13.6 13.3

Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 4.4 6.2 5.4 4.4 4.8 5.3

Sampo Oyj Class A Property/Casualty Insurance

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Sampo is the leading pan-Nordic non-life

insurance company through its subsidiary, If P&C,

and a leading life insurer in Finland through

Mandatum Life. After selling its banking operations

to Danske Bank in early 2007, Sampo has been

using the proceeds to acquire stakes in Nordea

and Topdanmark. As Sampo now holds approx.

21,2% of Nordea and 27% of Topdanmark, their

results are included in Sampo's P&L as associated

companies.

-----------------------------------------------------------Samp

o is geographically and operationally the most

diversified financial institution in the Nordics

The management have “full ownership” to the

company structure as they have established it.

The shares still have long-term attractions as

Sampo’s operations are stable with strong cash

flows, visibility is good and the dividend story

looks stronger than ever in light of the group’s

strong capital position.

Earnings momentum might become negative in

non-life insurance as combined ratios are no

longer decreasing and investment income falling

due to lower reinvestment yields.

Sampo

Securitas AB provides a wide range of security

services, from mobile patrols, access control, fire

prevention, receptionist and concierge, monitoring

and call-out services to specialized, site specific

duties. The company was founded by Erik

Philip-Sörensen in 1934 and is headquartered in

Stockholm, Sweden.

------------------------------------------------------------

Securitas is the European and the North American

leader in guarding services. The company has a

good track record when it comes to return on

equity. We believe Securitas will start to grow

organically going forward as they are the market

leader in a security market with favourable growth

prospects. Technology based security is the main

reason for this and is also a focus area for

Securitas. Margins are likely to improve as

technology share of revenue is increasing.

Securitas has over time showed a stable business

and top line development. Together with a low

valuation they also offer a solid dividend yield.

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Securitas AB Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 62,667 61,340 64,057 66,458 65,700 69,572 75,173


Net Income (mill.) 2,116 2,083 1,736 1,201 1,853 1,999 2,250

Price/Earnings 12.0 13.6 11.8 12.9 17.4 15.5 14.3

Price/Book Value 3.2 3.5 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.0

EV/EBIT 9.5 10.5 10.4 11.0 11.4 13.7 12.3

Return on Equity (%) 24.4 23.5 19.1 13.5 20.6 21.5 21.1

Dividend Yield (%) 4.2 3.8 5.1 5.3 4.4 3.2 3.4

Securitas AB Class B Miscellaneous Commercial Services

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

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SpareBank 1 SMN OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 4,320 4,329 4,875 5,191 5,817 4,021 3,855


Net Income (mill.) 931 1,017 1,016 1,052 1,360 1,758 1,543

Price/Earnings 3.7 4.8 3.5 3.6 6.8 7.2 7.5

Price/Book Value 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9

EV/EBIT - - - - - - -

Return on Equity (%) 16.0 14.6 12.7 11.6 12.9 12.8 11.3

Dividend Yield (%) 4.7 5.3 5.7 4.5 3.1 4.0 3.9

SpareBank 1 SMN Regional Banks

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

SpareBank 1 SMN is the leading financial

institution in the Mid-Norway region, and one of six

members of SpareBank 1 Alliansen.

As the leading savings bank in the region, the

company offers all services, including investment

banking.

-----------------------------------------------------------

The bank has historically shown a healthy growth

and solid return on equity based on good

operations and limited loan losses.

The last years, interest margin has widened from

low levels after the financial crisis, enabling the

bank to show a rapid earnings growth.

Pricing of the bank is low despite a solid core

capital position and decent prospects.

SpareBank 1 SMN

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Subsea 7 S.A. OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) 1,216 USD


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 2,209 2,369 5,055 6,297 6,297 7,091 5,972

EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 308 392 559 756 572 1,013 735

Net Income (mill.) 238 221 391 830 348 742 519

Price/Earnings 3.9 16.8 12.2 9.5 16.3 4.9 6.9

Price/Book Value 2.6 3.5 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.5

EV/EBIT 7.3 10.8 13.1 11.6 13.3 3.6 5.2

Return on Equity (%) 26.3 19.7 10.4 13.9 5.4 10.0 6.7

Dividend Yield (%) 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 5.9

Subsea 7 S.A. Oilfield Services/Equipment

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Subsea 7 is one of the world’s leading global

contractors in seabed-to-surface engineering,

construction and services to the oil industry. The

company provides technical solutions to enable

the delivery of complex projects in all water depths

and challenging environments.

------------------------------------------------------------

The subsea construction market is characterized

by few players and a high number of complex

projects. Order intake is therefor lumpy and the

industry is typically late cyclical. Current order

backlog is strong for execution the next couple of

years.

Oil companies are reducing E&P spending by

postponing projects and there are currently few

tenders in the market.

Historically, earnings and return on capital have

been decent, but is dependent on good project

execution.

Recent sharp price drop has made valuation

attractive. Subsea 7 is paying dividends and is

buying back own shares.

Subsea 7

46

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SCA Class B OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 110,857 109,142 81,337 85,408 89,019 103,318 107,900


Net Income (mill.) 4,765 5,552 -352 4,453 5,547 7,126 8,146

Price/Earnings 13.5 14.7 12.7 180.8 24.0 15.8 14.3

Price/Book Value 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.6

EV/EBIT 12.2 12.5 13.9 15.4 18.6 12.9 11.6

Return on Equity (%) 7.1 8.3 -0.5 7.4 9.0 11.1 11.5

Dividend Yield (%) 3.5 3.7 4.1 3.1 2.4 3.0 3.3

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget Class B Household/Personal Care

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Svenska Cellulosa AB (SCA) is a global hygiene

and forest company that develops and produces

personal care products, tissue and forest

products. The Company sells its branded

products globally. Libero, Lotus, Tena, Libresse

and Tork are the most known brands.

-------------------------------------------------------

SCA has one of the most stable business model in

our portfolio. The main part of their products

generating recurring revenues and have a less

cyclical nature. SCA has been a transformation

story over the last years. We think it has much

further to run. Structural improvements in tissue

combined with SCA’s leading positions in personal

care will support cost savings retention. A never

ending discussion about disposals of forest and

forest products could turn differently with a new

chairman of the board in the future. A different

structure of the group could visualize the high

return on capital in the rest of the business (80%).

SCA is Europe’s largest private forest owner and

we think the real value of the assets is much

higher than the book value.

Svenska Cellulosa (SCA)

Svenska Handelsbanken AB attracts deposits and

offers commercial banking services. The Bank

offers corporate finance, securities brokerage,

commodity trading, structured products, custody

services, and institutional asset management

services. Svenska Handelsbanken operates in

Europe, Asia, and the United States.

-------------------------------------------------------

No other Nordic bank can show the same history

of low loan losses as Handelsbanken. We are

impressed by the de-centralized banking model

and the growth in UK shows that it works also

outside of Sweden. The company will continue to

execute on their low cost banking model and the

bank will outgrow the rest of the banks in the

coming years. All employees are major

shareholders due to the pension system

«Oktogonen». We think this gives the bank much

better culture and incentives than other banks.

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Svenska Handelsbanken AB Class A OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR


Net debt (mill.) 1,011,040 SEK

Enterprise Value (mill.) 1,244,130 0.96

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 69,414 61,910 69,541 73,550 66,420 38,468 40,182


Net Income (mill.) 10,208 10,808 12,164 14,525 14,173 15,542 16,196

Price/Earnings 10.4 12.6 9.3 11.2 13.1 15.1 14.4

Price/Book Value 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.9

EV/EBIT - - - - - - -

Return on Equity (%) 12.9 12.6 13.3 14.4 13.0 12.9 13.0

Dividend Yield (%) 3.8 4.1 5.3 4.5 3.6 4.6 4.7

Svenska Handelsbanken AB Class A Regional Banks

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Svenska Handelsbanken

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Telenor ASA OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 97,650 94,843 98,516 101,718 104,027 109,840 114,853


Net Income (mill.) 9,063 14,749 7,165 10,067 8,748 12,200 15,916

Price/Earnings 15.9 10.7 13.3 47.9 15.3 19.0 14.7

Price/Book Value 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.0 2.9

EV/EBIT 10.4 14.1 11.8 12.4 12.5 10.7 10.6

Return on Equity (%) 11.6 18.0 8.3 12.7 11.9 16.0 19.7

Dividend Yield (%) 2.3 3.7 4.8 5.1 4.7 5.2 5.6

Telenor ASA Major Telecommunications

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Telenor is a global leading telecom operator, with

operations in 13 countries in Europe and Asia.

The company is mainly focused on mobile

operations, but also offers fixed line telephony in

Norway, Sweden and Denmark as well as owning

a broadcasting business in Norway.

----------------------------------------------------

Telecom operators face challenges in mature

markets through price competition and pressure

on networks. Telenor does however have

substantial part of its operations in emerging

markets such as India, Bangladesh and Pakistan,

which still offers great potential through increased

penetration and data usage.

Telenor, with top 3 positions in all markets (except

India), should therefore be able to grow earnings

going forward.

Telenor

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Yara International ASA OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR




2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

Sales (mill.) 60,867 64,006 77,726 83,997 84,668 92,029 96,560


Net Income (mill.) 3,782 8,729 12,066 10,602 5,748 7,679 7,578

Price/Earnings 299.7 11.3 6.7 6.6 9.3 12.0 12.5

Price/Book Value 2.7 2.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5

EV/EBIT 82.6 17.9 7.0 7.3 9.6 9.6 9.6

Return on Equity (%) 12.9 27.3 30.2 22.9 11.2 13.3 11.8

Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 1.6 2.8 4.2 4.1 3.2 3.2

Yara International ASA Chemicals: Agricultural

Price currency

Reporting currency

FX rate (NOK)

Yara is a leading global fertilizer company. The

company has operations in more than 50

countries and offers the most comprehensive

range of fertilizers in the industry, including

ammonia, nitrates, NPK and specialty fertilizers.

-------------------------------------------------------

Fertilizers are important for optimizing agricultural

production. Demand for fertilizers is increasing

annually by approximately 2%, twice the worlds

population growth.

Yara’s earnings will increase as a result lower gas

prices in most parts of the world, enabling lower

costs.

There are many moving parts determining Yara’s

earnings, such as weather, gas prices, fertilizer

prices, Chinese tax regime, nitrate premiums etc.

However, historically the company has navigated

impressively in this market. Valuation is

considered to be attractive.

Yara

50

Investment Objective Long term value creation

We prefer performing companies, with

strong long term prospects, available

at favourable prices

Investment Philosophy Performance - prospects - price

Performance Operating excellence

Prospects Strong competitive position

Price Favourable valuation

«Doing good business with bad people simply

doesn’t work» Warren E. Buffet

«We don’t focus at beating the market short term.

We want our holdings to beat their competitors

long term»

«The bitterness of poor quality remains long after

the sweetness of a nice price is forgotten»

Börje Ekholm

Unknown

53

Om ODIN Norden

ODIN Norden är en aktivt förvaltad aktiefond som

investerar i aktiebolag som är börsnoterade eller har

sitt huvudkontor eller ursprung i Sverige, Finland,

Danmark eller Norge.

Fondens långsiktiga mål är att ge högre avkastning

än den nordiska aktiemarknaden, mätt med fondens

referensindex.

Fakta om fonden

Startår 01.06.1990

Referensindex VINX BCAP NOK NI

Basvaluta NOK

Förvaltningsavgift 2 %

Tecknings-/inlösenavgift 0 %

Minsta teckningsbelopp 500 EUR

54

Om förvaltarna

Fondens förvaltare Truls

Haugen kom till ODIN 1996.

Han är ingenjör och civilekonom

i grunden och har gedigen

erfarenhet som förvaltare av

finska och nordiska

aktieportföljer. Han är även

auktoriserad finansanalytiker.

Truls förvaltar även fonden

ODIN Finland.

Fondens förvaltare Jarle Sjo

kom till ODIN 2011. Jarle har en

M.Sc. inom finans och lång

erfarenhet från portföljförvaltning

och analys av shipping och

offshore sektorerna från Oslo

och London.

Jarle förvaltar även fonden

ODIN Norge.

Fondens förvaltare Vegard

Søraunet kom till ODIN 2004.

Vegard är civilekonom från

Handshögskolan BI i Oslo och

har en master inom revision.

Han har även tidigare arbetat

inom revision.

Vegard förvaltar även fonden

ODIN Sverige.

Logga in på

ODIN Online

Klicka här

Teckna andelar

Klicka här

Beställ ODINs

nyhetsbrev

Klicka här

Kundservice

09 4735 5100

[email protected]

55

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https://www.odindirect.com/odin-online/show-identify.action?app=myodin&lang=no&utm_source=Maanedsrapport&utm_medium=pdf&utm_campaign=Maanedsrapport

http://odin.fi/se/kop-och-salj-av-fonder/kop-av-fonder/



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http://odin.fi/se/aktuellt/nyhetsbrev/



http://www.odinfond.no/nyhetsbrev?utm_source=Maanedsrapport&utm_medium=pdf&utm_campaign=Maanedsrapport

mailto:[email protected]

Vi påminner om att…

Historisk avkastning är ingen garanti för framtida avkastning, som bland annat beror på marknadsutvecklingen,

förvaltarens skicklighet, fondens risk samt kostnader för köp och förvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ om

aktiekurserna faller.

Uttalandena i denna rapport speglar ODINs syn på marknaden vid den tidpunkt då rapporten utarbetats. Vi har

använt källor som bedöms vara pålitliga, men vi kan inte garantera att uppgifterna från dessa källor är korrekta

eller fullständiga.

Anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS får handla för egen räkning med flera slags finansiella instrument. Det

innebär att anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS kan äga värdepapper i företag som omnämns i den här

rapporten, liksom andelar i ODINs fonder. Anställdas egenhandel ska följa ODIN Forvaltning AS interna

riktlinjer för anställdas egenhandel, som har utarbetats i enlighet med den norska lagen om handel med

värdepapper ("verdipapirhandelloven") och Verdipapirfondenes forenings branschstandard.

Mer information finns på www.odin.fi/se

56

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odin norden - skaper verdier for fremtiden · 2015-02-06 · odin norden – december 2014...

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