oecd economic survey of greece 2018 · 2019-10-28 · oecd economic survey of greece 2018 achieving...
TRANSCRIPT
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY
OF GREECE 2018
Achieving an inclusive and
sustained recovery 30 April 2018, Athens
http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-greece.htm
@OECDeconomy
@OECD
The economy is finally recovering
Source: OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
Real GDP
2
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Annual % change Annual % change
Unemployment is falling
Source: OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
Unemployment rate
3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
%
Competitiveness has improved
Source: OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
Relative unit labour costs
4
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Greece
Euro area
Index, 2010=100
The fiscal situation is strengthening
Note: The primary balance definition is different from that used in the ESM Support Stability Programme.
Source: OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database) and EC (2018) Compliance
Report ESM Stability Support Programme for Greece 5
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
% of GDP
Government primary balance ESM programme target
Primary budget surplus
Structural reforms have been extensive
Reforms implemented Ongoing reforms Reforms to do
Tax compliance
Spending reviews
Corporate law
Insolvency procedures
E-auctions, loan servicing bodies and secondary market
Out-of-court workout
Opening protected markets
Targeted social protection for low income families
State asset management and concessions
Public administration and financial management
Anti-corruption
Judiciary
Capital controls
Regulation impact assessments
Pensions
Rationalise social benefits and administration
Housing and disability allowances
Active labour market programmes for re-training and job matching
School management
Further product market liberalisation
Public administration and judiciary for rule of law
Complete land registry
Logistics and transport plan
Arrangements for agreeing pay and work conditions
Minimum wage commission
In-work benefits for low wages
Certify professional education
Expand active labour market and family programmes
Raise effective retirement age
6
Productivity continues to decline
Source: OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
Labour productivity
7
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Greece
Euro area
OECD
Index, 2010=100
Investment fell sharply during the crisis
Source: OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database). 8
Real investment
20
40
60
80
100
120
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Greece Euro area
Index, 2017=100 Index, 2017=100
Poverty is very high,
especially among the young
Source: Eurostat (2018), EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (database).
Severe material deprivation rate
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
%
Greece, 2016 EU, 2016 2009
Total Under 18 Total Under 18
%
Boosting inclusive and
sustainable growth
10
Deeper reforms would boost growth
Source: OECD calculations
Impact of structural reforms on level of GDP
11
80
120
160
200
240
80
120
160
200
240
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Legislated and ongoing reforms
Deeper reforms to product markets and public administration
Index, 2017=100 Index, 2017=100
Additional reforms and debt restructuring
would reduce public debt
* Official creditor interest rates fixed at 2% from 2020 and ESFS repayments postponed until 2031.
Source: Calculations based on OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
General government debt
12
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
% of GDP
Legislated and ongoing reforms
Deeper reforms to product markets and public administration
Deeper reforms + debt restructuring*
% of GDP
Tax collection is improving but remains low
Source: OECD (2016), Consumption Tax Trends 2016: VAT/GST and Excise Rates, Trends and Policy Issues, OECD
(2018), OECD Revenue Statistics (database) and OECD National Accounts Statistics (database). 13
VAT revenue ratio
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
ME
XIT
AG
RC
TU
RE
SP
PO
LG
BR
BE
LF
RA
IRL
CA
NP
RT
AU
SN
LD
SV
KL
VA
ISL
FIN
OE
CD
DE
UN
OR
DN
KS
WE
CZ
EA
UT
SV
NH
UN
ISR
KO
RC
HL
CH
EJP
NE
ST
LU
XN
ZL
2015 2013
% %
Spending efficiency can improve
Source: OECD (2016), Survey of Performance Budgeting and OECD (2017), Government at a Glance 2017.
Use of performance budgeting 0 to 1 (highest), central government
14
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
ES
PS
VK
ISL
HU
NP
RT
ISR
LU
XIT
AU
SA
TU
RL
VA
JPN
NO
RN
ZL
DE
UP
OL
GR
CA
US
CZ
EB
EL
CH
LO
EC
DIR
LS
VN
DN
KF
RA
ES
TN
LD
CA
NF
INS
WE
CH
EA
UT
GB
RM
EX
KO
R
2016 2011
Disposing less waste in landfills would
improve well-being
Source: OECD (2017), Green Growth Indicators (database).
Municipal waste treatment
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
Greece OECD
% of treated
Incineration
Recycling
and
composting
Landfill
Recycling
and
composting
\ Landfill
Main recommendations
Boosting inclusive and sustainable growth
Maintain the reform momentum focusing on implementation, enhancing public administration efficiency and continuing to fight corruption
Maintain the primary surplus agreed with official creditors and facilitate debt restructuring as needed.
Reduce tax evasion by extending the use of risk analysis, targeted tax audits and strengthening incentives for voluntary tax compliance.
Extend the obligation of having an electronic cash register to all self-employed and introduce e-invoicing.
Undertake regular spending reviews and extensive use of performance budgeting.
Enforce EU standards for waste disposal and urban waste-water treatment.
More in the Assessment & Recommendations 16
17
Expanding employment, reducing
poverty and improving skills
Wages are moving in line with productivity
Source: OECD (2018), OECD National Accounts Statistics (database) and Eurostat (2017), Labour Market Statistics
(database). 18
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real wages
Productivity
Main labour
market reforms
Index, 2014Q1 = 100
The minimum wage is near the OECD
average
Source: OECD (2018), Labour Statistics (database)
Ratio of full-time minimum wage to median wages 2016 or latest
19
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
US
A
ME
X
ES
P
CZ
E
JPN
ES
T
NL
D
IRL
CA
N
DE
U
SV
K
GR
C
GB
R
BE
L
KO
R
LV
A
HU
N
AU
S
PO
L
LU
X
ISR
PR
T
SV
N
FR
A
NZ
L
CH
L
TU
R
Many employees earn below the minimum
wage
Source: OECD calculations based on the ERGANI database from the Greek Ministry of Labour, Social Insurance and
Social Solidarity, and Eurostat (2017), EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (database). 20
Number of employees earning different wages September 2017
0
40
80
120
160
200
0
40
80
120
160
200
1-40
0
550-
600
750-
800
950-
1000
1150
-120
0
1350
-140
0
1550
-160
0
1750
-180
0
1950
-200
0
2150
-220
0
2350
-240
0
2550
-260
0
2750
-280
0
2950
-300
0
6000
-700
0
10 0
00+
Gross monthly wage, EUR
Full-time gross monthly minimum wage (EUR 586)
Employees, thousands
652
Employees, thousands
Median salary
Poverty line for a single adult (EUR 313)
Poverty is highest among the unemployed
Source: Eurostat (2018), EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (database).
Population at risk of poverty or social exclusion 18 year-olds and over
21
0
20
40
60
80
0
20
40
60
80
Total Employed Retired Unemployed
% %
2016 2008
Pensions dominates social protection spending
Source: Eurostat (2018), Social Protection Statistics (database).
Social protection spending by function 2015 or latest
22
0
8
16
24
32
40
0
8
16
24
32
40
IRL
TU
R
ISL
LU
X
ES
T
LV
A
SV
K
CZ
E
HU
N
DE
U
PO
L
NO
R
ES
P
SV
N
BE
L
CH
E
NL
D
DN
K
GB
R
SW
E
FIN
PR
T
AU
T
FR
A
ITA
GR
C
% of GDP % of GDP
Pensions Family, healthcare and other
Recent reforms raise poor households’ income
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD tax-benefit model.
Income of an unemployed couple with children
23
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Pre-reforms Social SolidarityIncome
introduced
Family benefits& tax reforms
introduced
Proposedhousing
allowance
OECD average
Social assistance Housing allowances Family benefits Taxes
Poverty threshold (50 % of median)
% median disposable income % median disposable income
Graduation rates are high
Source: OECD (2017), OECD Education at a Glance 2017: OECD indicators 24
Upper secondary graduation rates Under 25 years old, 2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
Greece OECD
% Vocational programmes
General programmes
School students’ performance lags
Source: OECD, PISA 2015 databases.
Mean PISA score 2015
25
450
460
470
480
490
500
510
Reading Mathematics Science
Greece OECD
Few adults re-skill through life-long learning
Source: Eurostat (2017), Education and training (database).
Participation in education and training 2017
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Slo
vaki
a
Po
lan
d
Gre
ece
Tu
rkey
Irel
and
Hu
ng
ary
Lat
via
Bel
giu
m
Ital
y
Ger
man
y
Cze
ch R
ep.
Sp
ain
Po
rtu
gal EU
Slo
ven
ia
Un
ited
Kin
gd
on
Au
stri
a
Est
on
ia
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Fra
nce
Net
her
lan
ds
No
rway
Icel
and
Fin
lan
d
Den
mar
k
Sw
eden
Sw
itze
rlan
d
% 25-64 year olds % 25-64 year olds
Share of workers whose skills do not match their job 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
PO
L
CA
N
BE
L
SW
E
US
A
FR
A
NL
D
DN
K
JPN
FIN
ES
T
KO
R
GB
R
SV
N
NO
R
SV
K
TU
R
OE
CD
AU
S
DE
U
ISR
AU
T
NZ
L
IRL
CZ
E
ES
P
ITA
GR
C
CH
L
% %
Over-skilling Under-skilling
Skill mismatch is high
Source: Adalet McGowan, and Andrews (2017), "Skills Mismatch, Productivity and Policies in New Zealand: Evidence
from the second wave of PIAAC", OECD Economics Department Working Papers. OECD calculations based on Survey
of Adult Skills (PIAAC). 27
Main recommendations
Expanding employment, reducing poverty and
improving skills Introduce collective-wage bargaining covering broad working conditions and without
automatic extensions
Ensure collective agreements are sufficiently flexible so that they can be adapted to specific firm level conditions
Establish a commission of social partners and independent experts to recommend minimum wage adjustments
Introduce assessment frameworks and professional development schemes; gradually give schools and teachers greater pedagogical and managerial autonomy
Scale up post-secondary vocational education and adult education, linking them with labour market needs, and certify the quality of courses
Evaluate reskilling programmes, expand successful and cost-effective approaches and cancel those that are not.
Continue spending reviews to reallocate resources to targeted social programmes.
Further rationalise remaining non-targeted programmes.
Consider introducing in-work benefits.
More in Chapter 2: Generating employment, raising incomes and addressing poverty
28
Boosting investment and tackling non-
performing loans
29
Banks’ non-performing loans are high
Non-performing loans relative to total gross loans and advances
Source: European Banking Authority (2018),"Risk Dashboard, Data as of Q3 2017". 30
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
ES
T
GB
R
NL
D
DN
K
LV
A
BE
L
FR
A
SV
K
AU
T
EU
ES
P
IRL
ITA
SV
N
PR
T
GR
C
% %
Lending to businesses remains weak
Bank credit to non-financial corporations
Source: ECB Bank Lending Survey. 31
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EUR billion EUR billion
Capital is trapped in zombie firms
Share of capital in zombie firms 2013
Note: “Zombie” firms are 10 years or older with three consecutive years of interest expenses exceeding earnings before
interest and taxes.
Source: Adalet McGowan, Andrews and Millot (2017), "Insolvency regimes, zombie firms and capital reallocation",
OECD Economics Department Working Papers. 32
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
SVN FRA JPN FIN GBR AUT KOR SWE DEU LUX PRT BEL ESP ITA GRC
% %
Insolvency processes are improving
Insolvency indicator
Source: Adalet McGowan, Andrews and Millot (2017), "Insolvency regimes, zombie firms and capital reallocation",
OECD Economics Department Working Papers.
33
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
GB
RJP
ND
EU
PR
TE
SP
US
AC
HE
FR
AIS
RIR
LG
RC
CH
LF
INS
VN
NZ
LIT
AC
ZE
PO
LM
EX
LV
AA
UT
NO
RS
VK
TU
RS
WE
AU
SC
AN
BE
LN
LD
HU
NE
ST
Index Index
2016 2010
Contract enforcement is weak
Source: World Bank (2018), Doing Business 2018 (database). 34
0
20
40
60
80
100
GR
CS
VN
CA
NIT
AIR
LIS
RC
ZE
SV
KN
LD
CH
LP
OL
BE
LJP
NF
INC
HE
OE
CD
ME
XS
WE
DN
KG
BR
TU
RIS
LE
SP
DE
UN
ZL
LV
AP
RT
US
AF
RA
LU
XH
UN
ES
TA
UT
NO
RA
US
KO
R
Enforcing contracts Relative to the top performer, 2018
The business environment can improve further
Source: OECD (2017), Product Market Regulation database and OECD calculations. 35
Product market regulation index
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
NL
DG
BR
AU
TD
NK
NZ
LA
US
DE
US
VK
ITA
ES
TF
INP
RT
HU
NB
EL
CZ
EJP
NC
AN
ES
PIR
LL
UX
NO
RF
RA
OE
CD
ISL
CH
EC
HL
SW
EU
SA
LV
AP
OL
SV
NG
RC
KO
RM
EX
ISR
TU
R
2013 2017
Index 0 to 6, from least to most restrictive
2008 (preliminary)
Regulatory impact assessments are
underused
Source: OECD (2015), OECD Regulatory Policy Outlook 2015.
Ex-post evaluation of primary laws 2014
36
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
GR
CT
UR
IRL
SV
KU
SA
FIN
CZ
EJP
NE
SP
FR
AP
RT
CH
LS
VN
NO
RH
UN
ISL
ITA
NL
DO
EC
DL
UX
DN
KP
OL
ISR
KO
RN
ZL
AU
TE
ST
SW
EC
HE
CA
NB
EL
DE
UM
EX
GB
RA
US
Composite index Composite index
Barriers to FDI are low
FDI regulatory restrictiveness index 0 (open) to 1 (closed)
Source: OECD (2017), "FDI statistics according to Benchmark Definition 4th Edition (BMD4): Foreign direct investment:
main aggregates", OECD Globalisation Statistics (database). 37
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
LU
XP
RT
SV
NC
ZE
NL
DE
ST
FIN
ES
PD
EU
HU
NL
VA
GR
CD
NK
BE
LG
BR
IRL
FR
AS
VK
ITA
JPN
CH
LS
WE
TU
RO
EC
DP
OL
CH
EN
OR
US
AA
UT
ISR
KO
RA
US
CA
NIS
LM
EX
NZ
L
2016 2006
Inwards FDI stocks are low but improving
FDI inward stocks
Source: OECD (2017), "FDI statistics according to Benchmark Definition 4th Edition (BMD4): Foreign direct investment:
main aggregates", OECD Globalisation Statistics (database). 38
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% of GDP % of GDP
Greece OECD EU
Participation in global value chains can be
strengthened
Foreign value added in exports
Source: OECD (2017), "TiVA Nowcast Estimates“, OECD International Trade and Balance of Payments Statistics database 39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Au
stra
lia
New
Zea
lan
d
No
rway
Ch
ile
Sw
itze
rlan
d
Tu
rkey
Isra
el
Gre
ece
Sp
ain
Au
stri
a
Sw
eden
Den
mar
k
Est
on
ia
Po
rtu
gal
Net
her
lan
ds
Po
lan
d
Mex
ico
Slo
ven
ia
Icel
and
Fin
lan
d
Bel
giu
m
Ko
rea
Cze
ch R
ep.
Hu
ng
ary
Slo
vaki
a
Irel
and
Lu
xem
bo
urg
% %
Transport infrastructure hampers Greece’s
participation in global trade
Source: World Economic Forum, "The Global Competitiveness Report 2017-2018".
Railroads Ports
40
Global Competitiveness Index 2017-18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
HU
NC
ZE
AU
TIT
AG
RC
CH
EA
US
OE
CD
FR
AIR
LP
RT
JPN
CA
ND
EU
ES
PS
WE
GB
RD
NK
US
AB
EL
NL
D
0 to 7 (best)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
GR
CH
UN
IRL
AU
SIT
AP
RT
CZ
EO
EC
DD
NK
SW
EG
BR
BE
LC
AN
AU
TD
EU
ES
PU
SA
FR
AN
LD
JPN
CH
E
0 to 7 (best)
Main recommendations
Boosting investment
Simplify regulatory impact assessments and build a network of civil servants with regulatory-quality expertise.
Expand the scope of the “silence is consent” rule, ex-post compliance monitoring and one-stop shops; ensure that they have the resources to operate effectively
Fully implement the legislated insolvency reforms
Ensure a sufficient number of well-trained insolvency professionals start operating soon
Fully implement out-of-court workout procedures and e-auctions.
Continue to align banks’ governance standards with international best practices
Align tax incentives for disposing of non-performing loans with those of previous legislation and make them temporary
Finalise and implement the state asset management strategy and link it with the privatisation programme.
Complete the land registry
More in Chapter 1: Boosting investment 41
Disclaimers:
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such
data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West
Bank under the terms of international law.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the
delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
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