OECD SKILLS STRATEGY: LATVIA

DIAGNOSTIC WORKSHOP

Samuel Kim

Project leader

OECD Centre for Skills

14 February 2019, Riga

1. Context Why do skills matter?

2. Diagnostic evidence What is the situation in Latvia?

3. Project How can the OECD Skills Strategy support

Latvia?

2

Overview

COGNITIVE AND

META-

COGNITIVE

SKILLS

TECHNICAL,

PROFESSIONAL

SKILLS

SOCIAL AND

EMOTIONAL

SKILLS

3

What do we mean by skills?

1. CONTEXT:WHY DO SKILLS MATTER

4

5

Skills matter for individual well-being

Source: OECD (2016), Skills Matter: Further Results from the Survey of Adult Skill.

Unadjusted differences between the % of adults with high and low literacy proficiency reporting strong social outcomes, OECD average

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Good to excellent

health

High levels of political

efficacy

Employed in labour

market

Participation in

volunteer activities

High levels of trust

%-points

Australia

Austria

CanadaChile

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Flanders (Belgium)France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Israel

Italy

JapanKoreaLithuania

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland Slovak Republic

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3

Lab

ou

rp

rod

uc

tiv

ity

(lo

g)

Mean use of reading skills at work

Adjusted:Slope: 0.774 (0.231)

R-squared: 0.261

And skills matter for national prosperity

Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012, 2015).

Labour productivity and the use of reading skills at work, PIAAC 2012/2015Adjusted for literacy and numeracy proficiency

6

Several megatrends are affecting skills

GLOBALISATIONTECHNOLOGICAL

CHANGE

DEMOGRAPHIC

CHANGE

Rapid development of

new technologies

Emergence of new

forms of work

Expansion of sources

of learning, especially

online

More integrated world

economy than ever

Emergence of global

value chains, offshoring

and outsourcing

Increased vulnerability

of some workers

Large expected

decline in working-

age population

Ageing population

Growing number of

immigrants

The economy increasingly demands higher

levels of skills

Employment trends in Latvia by typical education requirements of occupations,

net and %-change 2005-2015

Source: OECD calculations based on CEDEFOP (2017), EU-CEDEFOP database: Employment trends.8

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-120 000

-100 000

-80 000

-60 000

-40 000

-20 000

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

Primary (ISCED97-1) Secondary and post-

secondary non-tertiary

(ISCED97-2+3+4)

Tertiary non-university

(ISCED97-5B)

Tertiary - university (ISCED97-

5A+6)

%Number of employees

Net change (left) %-change (right)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70%

Source: Nedelkoska and Quintini (2018)

Jobs at risk of Automation

Share of jobs at HIGH RISK (>70%) of automation and at SIGNIFICANT RISK (50-70%)

And a large share of jobs could be impacted by automation in the future

9

Moving towards a new model for skills

development and use

10

11

2019 OECD SKILLS STRATEGY FRAMEWORK

1011

2. DIAGNOSTIC EVIDENCE: WHAT IS THE SITUATION IN LATVIA?

12

13

The OECD Skills Strategy Dashboard:

Developing relevant skills

Priority 1: Strengthening

the skills outcomes of

students

Priority 2: Fostering a

culture of lifelong

learning

14

The OECD Skills Strategy Dashboard:

Putting skills to effective use

Priority 3: Improving

skills matches in the

labour market

Priority 4: Strengthening governance of the skills system

PRIORITY 1:

Strengthening the

skills outcomes of

students

15

Student outcomes are close to the OECD average but

Latvia has a low share of top-performers

PISA outcomes Latvia, neighbouring countries and OECD average, 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

Latvia Lithuania Slovak

Republic

Hungary Czech

Republic

Denmark OECD

average

Sweden Slovenia Germany Estonia Finland

%Share of top performers in at least one subject (Level 5 or 6)Share of low achievers in all three subjects (below Level 2)

16Source: PISA 2015 Database.

Equity is relatively high but there are some persistent

disparities between urban and rural areas

Source: PISA 2015 Database.

17

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

510

520

Science Reading Mathematics

Total Riga City Town Rural

PISA 2015 outcomes in Latvia according to school location

The shares of students choosing

vocational education is low

Source: OECD (2018), Education at a Glance 2018, Table B3.1. https://doi.org/10.1787/888933803349. 18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80%

Share of first-time upper secondary graduates who

obtained a vocational qualification, 2016

There are some challenges concerning the

teaching workforce

19

Average age is 47

Low professional development

New teaching skills needed for

competency based curriculum

Low entrance requirements

Lack of teachers with adequate skills for

special needs children

20

PRIORITY 2:

Fostering a culture

of lifelong learning

21

A large share of adults has no or low

digital skills

Source: Eurostat (2018), Individuals' level of digital skills [isoc_sk_dskl_i], http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/tepsr_sp410_esmsip.htm.

% of adults who have no or low overall digital skills, 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40%

22

Interest in learning among adults is low

Source: Eurostat (2016),Adult Education Survey 2016, Distribution of the will to participate, or participate more, in education and training

Participants who are not willing to participate (further) in education and

training, 2016 (Adult Education Survey)

0102030405060708090

100

%

Respondents who already participated and did not want to participate more

Respondents who did not participate and did not want to participate

Adults in Latvia also face other barriers to

participate, most notably financial barriers

Source: Eurostat (2018), Adult Education Survey.

Barriers to participation for available EU countries, Share of adults not participating, 25-64 year-olds, 2016

23

0 20 40 60 80

Negative previous learning experience

No access to a computer or internet

Prerequisites

Health or age

Lack of support

Other personal reasons

Distance

No suitable education or training activity

Family responsibilities

Schedule

Cost

No need for (further) education or training

%

European Union Latvia

Not all groups are participating equally

in adult learning

Participation in formal or non-formal education, 2016 By gender, age, educational attainment, and urbanisation, Latvia and EU, 25-64 year-olds

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Tota

l

Ma

le

Fe

ma

le

25-3

4

35-4

4

35-4

4

45-5

4

55-6

4

Less

th

an

up

pe

r se

c.

Up

pe

r, p

ost

-se

c.

Tert

iary

ed

uc

atio

n

Citie

s

Tow

ns

an

d s

ub

urb

s

Ru

ral a

rea

s

Gender Age groups Educational attainment Urbanisation

%Latvia European Union

Source: Eurostat (2018), Adult Education Survey, Participation rate in education and training by sex [trng_aes_100]. 24

And participation strongly depends on

employment status and occupation

Participation in formal or non-formal education, 2016 By employment status and occupation, Latvia and EU, 25-64 year-olds

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Employed Unemployed Inactive Managers,

professionals,

technicians and

associate

professionals

Clerical support

workers, service

and sales

workers

Skilled manual

workers

Elementary

occupations

Labour Status Occupation

% Latvia European Union

Source: Eurostat (2018), Adult Education Survey, Participation rate in education and training by sex [trng_aes_100]. 25

The share of employees participating in

adult learning is relatively low

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

%% of enterprises providing training, 2015 % of employees participation in CVT courses, 2015

Continued vocational training, enterprises and employees participating, 2015

26

PRIORITY 3:

Improving skills

matches in the

labour market

27

Latvia faces skills shortages in various

occupations, including STEM and Health

Source: Latvian Ministry of Economy (2018), Medium and Long term Labour Market Forecasts. 28

Forecasts of the labour force demand compared to supply

in 2025, by higher education fields of education

85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130

Services

Humanities and arts

Social sciences, business

and law

Agriculture

Education

Health and social welfare

Life sciences, matchematics

and computing

Engineering, manufacturing

and construction

Supply

In excess Hard to find

Use of information about current and

future skills needs

Education policy

Migration policy

Social partners

Employment policy

Update occupational standards

Revise, design, allocate training

programs

Develop apprenticeship

programs

Update NQF & curricula

Information for students

on employment prospects

Decide course provision

and funding

Advise members on

skills to promote

Influence labour and

education policy

Fast track entry of

migrants with skills

needed by employers

Attract talent from

abroad to fill skill gaps

29

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Highly-educated All

Low-wage earners, share of tertiary educated and all employees, 2014

Share of employees earning less than two-thirds of the median gross hourly wages

Many highly-educated workers earn

low wages

Note: Includes employees in firms with 10 employees or more. Highly-educated employees are those with a tertiary education (levels 5-8).Source: Eurostat, Low-wage earners as a proportion of all employees (excluding apprentices) by educational attainment level 30

Latvia faces a declining population because

of high emigration rates

%

A. Emigration and immigration (2016) B. Net immigration (2016)

Source: Eurostat (2018), (demo_pjan, migr_emi2, migr_imm8)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

% o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

Emmigration Immigration

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

% o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

%

31

PRIORITY 4:

Strengthening

governance of

the skills system

32

Governance in Latvia is well developed

compared to the OECD average

33

Executive capacity, SGI-score 0-10, 2017

Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung (2018), SGI indicators, http://www.sgi-network.org/2018/.

4 5 6 7 8 9

Evidence-based Instruments

Societal Consultation

Implementation

Adaptability

Interministerial Coordination

Policy Communication

Organizational Reform

Latvia

OECD (unweighted) average

A WHOLE-OF-GOVERNMENT approach

is needed for skills policies

34

Stakeholders need to be engaged

35

Skills policies should be evidence-based

36

Financing arrangements should be

aligned and co-ordinated

37

3. PROJECTHOW CAN THE OECD SKILLS

STRATEGY SUPPORT LATVIA?

38

Making unique contributions in…

Mapping the

skills system

Identifying

policy priorities

Aligning

policies

Making policy

recommendations

39

Applied in 13 diverse countries…and counting

40

Korea

41

Employing a whole-of-government approach

for OECD Skills Strategy projects

Directorate for Education and Skills

Economics Department

Directorate for Employment, Labour

and Social Affairs

Directorate for Science, Technology and

Innovation

Centre for Tax Policy and Administration

Directorate for Public Governance and

Territorial Development

Local Employment, Skills and Social

Inclusion

OECD National project team

Ministry of Education and Science

Ministry of Economics

Ministry of Welfare

OECD Skills Strategy LatviaAssessment and Recommendations

And more…

Cross-sectoral Coordination Centre

Employers’ Confederation of Latvia

Latvian Confederation of Free Trade Unions.

42

Engaging stakeholders

Diagnostic Workshop

The Hague, Netherlands

12 May 2016

Regional Workshop

Madrid, Spain

3-4 November 2014

Diagnostic Workshop

Brussels, Belgium

15 May 2018

Active Learning Workshop

Seoul, South Korea

15 December 2015

Diagnostic Workshop

Vienna, Austria

24 April 2013

Diagnostic Workshop

Mexico City, Mexico

9 June 2016

Scoping activities

(Q3 2018)

Diagnostic phase

(Q4 2018)

Diagnostic phase

(Q1 2019)

Diagnostic phase (Q2

2019)

Diagnostic phase

(Q3 2019)

Launch(Q4 2019)

43

Project elements and timelines

Skills Strategy

Seminar

• Introduce skills

strategy

• Present

scoreboard

• Discuss reforms

and priorities

Technical Project

Team Meeting

• Discuss roles,

responsibilities

• Discuss

information

sharing

• Create

operational plan

Data Analysis

• Reviewing the

questionnaire

• Following up

in specific

areas

Workshop 1

• “Briefing pack”

presenting key

data

• Identify key

determinants of

skills policy

priorities

• Tailored

exercises and

presentations

by OECD

experts

Workshop 2

• Focus on

good

practices

• Refine

recommend

ations

• Identify

consideratio

ns for

implementati

on

Drafting of report

• Review draft

outline report

• Review full draft

• Approve final

version

Public event

• Launch of

Diagnostic

Report

• Raise public

awareness

• Develop broad

base of support

for future action

For more information

To discuss OECD’s work from the Centre for Skills and/or the

National Skills Strategies, please contact:

Samuel.kim@oecd.org

To learn more about the OECD’s work on skills visit: www.oecd.org/skills/

44

OECD SKILLS STRATEGY: LATVIA

DIAGNOSTIC WORKSHOP

Katharine Mullock

Labour market economist

OECD Directorate for Employment

and Social Affairs

14 February 2019, Riga

46

Diagnostic WorkshopTime Activity1. REGISTRATION

09:00-09:30 Registration, tea and coffee

2. WORKSHOP INTRODUCTION AND PRESENTATIONS

09:30-09:40 Welcoming words Latvia

09:40-09:50 European Commission Speech (tbc)

09:50-10:35 OECD welcoming words and presentation

10:35-10:45 OECD explaining the day & dynamics

3. WORKSHOP SESSIONS

11:00-12:00 Session 1a: Developing recommendations - Relevant factors

In small groups around tables outcomes the main factors affecting the priority area are discussed.

12:00-13:00 Lunch

13:00-14:05 Session 1b: Developing recommendations - Policy responses

Continuation of session 1a with focus on responding to these factors by developing recommendations

14:10-15:00 Session 2: Critical friends

Participants have the opportunity to respond to developed recommendations on different priority areas

15:05-16:00 Session 3: Refining recommendations

Based on input from the critical friends, groups from session 2 refine the developed recommendations for their priority area

16:00-16:20 Coffee break

4. WORKSHOP CLOSING

16:20-16:55 Plenary discussion: sharing conclusions

Share recommendations for each priority

16:55-17:00 OECD Reflections and closing Latvia

47

SESSIONS

1

2

React to diagnostic findings (briefing pack, presentation)

Developing recommendations – relevant factors (1a) Developing recommendations – policy responses (1b)

Critical friends – providing feedback to another priority area

3

P

Refining recommendations

Present group-specific recommendations and receive feedback

a) What are the main factors affecting the priority area?

b) How would you recommend to respond to the main factors affecting your priority area?

• What are your views on the recommendations developed by the other group?

• How does the feedback from critical friends and new perspectives affect the developed recommendations?

Table arrangements

Moderator

Notetaker

Edu

Edu

Union

Emp

NGov

LGov

HED

Other

• NGov: National government and subsidiary

institutions

• LGov: Local government

• Emp: Employers and employers associations

• Edu: Education institutions

• HED: Higher education institutions, researchers,

student representatives

• Union: Trade unions

• Other: non classified

Room 1

Logistical arrangements

Student

outcomes

12 2

1

3

1

2

12

Lifelong

learning

Skills

imbalancesGovernance

Room 2

Room 3

Room 4

3

Plenary

Plenary

Introductions

Presentations

Sessions 1, 2, 3

Closing

3

Logistical arrangements

Room 1

12 21 3 1 2 1 2

Governance

Room 2 Room 3 Room 4

3 3

Student outcomes Lifelong learning Skills imbalances

51

Diagnostic WorkshopTime Activity1. REGISTRATION

09:00-09:30 Registration, tea and coffee

2. WORKSHOP INTRODUCTION AND PRESENTATIONS

09:30-09:40 Welcoming words Latvia

09:40-09:50 European Commission Speech (tbc)

09:50-10:35 OECD welcoming words and presentation

10:35-10:45 OECD explaining the day & dynamics

3. WORKSHOP SESSIONS

11:00-12:00 Session 1a: Developing recommendations - Relevant factors

In small groups around tables outcomes the main factors affecting the priority area are discussed.

12:00-13:00 Lunch

13:00-14:05 Session 1b: Developing recommendations - Policy responses

Continuation of session 1a with focus on responding to these factors by developing recommendations

14:10-15:00 Session 2: Critical friends

Participants have the opportunity to respond to developed recommendations on different priority areas

15:05-16:00 Session 3: Refining recommendations

Based on input from the critical friends, groups from session 2 refine the developed recommendations for their priority area

16:00-16:20 Coffee break

4. WORKSHOP CLOSING

16:20-16:55 Plenary discussion: sharing conclusions

Share recommendations for each priority

16:55-17:00 OECD Reflections and closing Latvia