OFF-GRID SOLAR: POTENTIAL &

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES

Dr Sameer Maithel, Director, Greentech Knowledge Solutions

RE-INVEST Conference

Session Decentralized Energy Solutions, February 17, 2015, New Delhi

Off-Grid Solar: Solar Thermal and Solar PV

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Households

Livelihoods

Commercial,

Institutional &

Industrial

Solar Water Heater

Solar Dryer

Institutional Solar Cooking Solar Telecom Towers

Solar Pumps

Solar LampsSolar Home Systems

Off-grid solar thermal

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Non-thermal applications

43%

Industrial process

heat, 53%, 127 Mtoe

Residential cooking, 37%, 90

Mtoe

Others, 10%

Thermal applications,

57%, 240 Mtoe

Fifty-seven percent (i.e., 240 Mtoe) of the final energy

consumption in India is used for thermal applications

Source: Greentech Knowledge Solutions Analysis

Solar Thermal : Market

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Source: Greentech Knowledge Solutions Analysis

Market for solar thermal, particularly solar water heater has

grown steadily over last 15 years

Solar Thermal : Potential (2015-2032)

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-

20

40

60

80

100

120

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

Ins

tall

ed

Ca

pa

cit

y (

GW

th)

An

nu

al

So

lar

Th

erm

al M

ark

et

(GW

th/y

ea

r)

SWH - Buildings SWH - Industries others installed capacity

The market for solar thermal is expected to expand rapidly

– The installed capacity expected to increase by 10 x (reaching 100 GWth by 2032) and annual sales by 20 x by 2032.

Source: Greentech Knowledge Solutions Analysis

Solar Water Heater Potential

(2015-2032)

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SWH annual sales expected to reach 3.25 million m2/ year by 2022

and 31 million m2/ year by 2032.

– Residential sector to remain the main market segment

– Market to expand to small towns and rural areas

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

An

nu

al

so

lar

wate

r h

eate

r m

ark

et

po

ten

tial

(mil

lio

n m

2)

Solar Water Heater market potential

Flat plate Evacuated tube

Source: Greentech Knowledge Solutions Analysis

Solar Thermal: Market (2014 & 2032)

Zone I - Solar resource is adequately available year round.

Zone II - Adequate solar radiation but requirement limited

to 4 months

Zone III - 6 months of hot water requirement but poor solar

radiation during the peak winter

Zone IV - Low hot water requirement and poor solar

radiation.

Zone V – Year round hot water demand and adequate solar

radiation.

Zone I

Zone II

Zone III Zone IV

Zone V

Zone -I

51%

Zone -II

9%

Zone -III

33%

Zone -IV4%

Zone -V

3%

Installed Capacity - 2032

Zone - I

81%

Zone - II

6%

Zone - III

12%

Zone - IV

0%Zone - V

1%

Installed Capacity - 2014The market which is currently

concentrated in southern

and western states will become pan-India by 2032.

Source: Greentech Knowledge Solutions Analysis

Solar Thermal: Investment Opportunities

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Total investment required (2015 – 2032) in solar thermal sector is ~US$ 30 billion out of which around US$ 500 million is required for manufacturing and assembly.

Solar PV products: Market Segments

• Household Applications – 180 million households have poor

access to electricity

– Govt. is spending US$ 5.1 billion on kerosene subsidy

• Water pumps for irrigation – 8 million diesel pumps and 10-12

million electric pumps are in operation

– Subsidy on electricity for water pumping is expected to reach US$ 50 billion by 2021-22

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Source: IFC, 2012; Bridge to India, 2014

Solar PV Products: Market Segments

• Service segment such as banks, petrol stations, telecom towers, post offices and other community services in villages – Around 0.5 million telecom towers in India consuming 2 billion liters of

diesel/year,

• Livelihood activities in villages – Small cold rooms for fruits and vegetables– Aeration of ponds during fish farming– Lighting and ventilation of poultry farms– Milk collection centres and micro milk chilling facilities

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Source: KPMG, 2011; Greentech Knowledge Solutions,2014

Off-grid Solar PV: Market Status

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Off-grid solar PV

7%

Grid connected

93%

227 MWp which is about 7% of the total solar power

installed capacity of 3062 MWp (as on 31st Dec 2014)

Off-grid Solar PV: Opportunity

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15*

Grid connected (MWp)

Off-grid (MWp)

Off-grid Solar PV accounts for 4-10% of the annual Solar PV installations. If 10 % of

the 100 GW target is met by off-grid solar PV systems, the investment

requirement in off-grid solar PV system is estimated at around 50-70 billion US$

by 2022

Conclusions

• Enormous social and economic benefits of off-grid systems

• The potential is high – Solar thermal installed capacity could reach ~ 15GWth by

2022 and 100 GWth by 2032.

– Off-grid solar PV installed capacity could reach around 10 GWp by 2022

• The market is diverse and dispersed, efforts are needed for:– Customising and developing products for specific needs

– Sales and supply network

– Ensuring quality products

– Making available access to finance

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Thank You !

sameer@gkspl.in

www.gkspl.in