The White House

Office of Political Affairs

January 26,2007

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Historical Look

All 2nd Midterms President Year President's Party President's Party

. . ! Cb Senate e rm m- =

A11 Wartime Midterms Frebid(~nt's par ~rwiclant'e part

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Generic Ballot Suggested Tsunami

1

+54 -3 -4 -2 . +8 +3 -30

+9 +3 even -5 +2 +4 -6

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GOP Losses From Scandal, Complacency

10 losing GOP candidates tainted by scandal; 10 in Kerry I

Scandal Seats

GOP Candidates in Kerry Districts

Complacent Incum bents

TOTAL: 22 SEATS*

* TNw, Pmbo, Weldm, and Lewh am in 2 calagOrie. cwh

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"Corru~tion" Voters' Top Issue (% "kremely Important," Exit p&ling)

Corruption Economy Terrorism . alues

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Iraq Immigration Saddi Verdict

Dems Won Corruption, Econ., Iraq Voters

Terrorism

Immigration

Saddam Verdict

Economy

co.rrupt ion

(010 GOP- O/O Dem, Exit Polls)

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-' u : i

.:@\ 'f - . *

' 8 1

!;A. :'

I:,:: a, I

Republican Base About the Same

Conservative Voters

soulu?: Exit Polling

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Republican 010 of the Electorate:

40

2000 2002 2004 2006

Conservative 010 of the Electorate:

2000 2002 2004 2006

Democrat Base Did Not Grow Democrat Voters

2000 2002 2004 2006

Liberal Voters

2000 ZOO2 2004 2006

m: Exit Polling

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Democrat 010 of the Electorate:

39

n,-iII 2000 2002 2004 2006

Liberal 010 of the Electorate:

21 m-n-a 2000 2002 2004 2006

Midterm Election Turnout, 1962-2006 (As % of VAP, Center for the Study of the American Electorate)

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Lost Ground With Swing Voters

I Moderates I I Union Households I

Independents

--'I -18

2000 2002 2004 2006

2000 2002 2004 2006 2000 2002 2004 2006

Swme: Exit Polling

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Latinos

-27 -24 vd -40

2000 2002 2004 2006

Suburban

-3

2000 2002 2004 2006

Bigger Losses Among Men

Men 11 11 11

r

-3

2000 2002' 2004 2006

Source: Exit Polling

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Women

0

-13

2000 2002 2004 2006

DMINISTRATION.

Long Term Problems: Among Latinos and Youth Vote

Latino Vote (R - D)

-40

2000 2002 2004 2006 (7) (7) (8) (8)

Sourn: Exit wing

18-29 Vote (R - D)

-2 T

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-9

I I

-22

2000 2002 2004 2006

(17) (11) (17) (12)

Races Extremely Close Because Of GOP Ground Game

- - -- - -- - -- 22 races decided by two points or less- Republicans won 13 and lost 9, including two GOP challengers in GA.

I n 2002 and 2004, just seven races were decided

I by two points or fewer. 18 races decided by fewer than 5,000 votes; R's won 12; all 18 combined were decided by 49,445 votes

6 races decided by fewer than 1,QOO votes; combined margin 3694 votes.

35 raees in which the winner received 51% or less of the ~ooular vote

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More "Split" Districts Represented By Democrats

62 Democrats represent Bush '04 districts; 8 Republicans represent Kerry '04 districts

I t t t t t t t t l t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t l t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t t

Democratic Congressmen I n Bush Districts '

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GOP Congressmen I n Kerry Districts

IRITTEN AUTHORIZATION FROM GENERAL SERVICES .DMINISTRATION.

Democrats Have Precarious Hold On Power

Democrats represent 33 districts President Bush carried with 55% or more of the vote and 2 1 districts where he won 58% or more in 2004

No Republican represents a district Kerry won with more than 53% of the vote in 2004

Of 62 Dems in Bush districts, 23 won election this year with 55% or less of the vote

Almost half the Democratic freshman class- 19 of 41-represents districts President Bush won in '04

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72 Hours: Voter Registration Made a Difference in Individual Races

I I n 2006,72-hour staff in 45 target districts registered 70,559 new Republicans and identified 1,788,060 new GOP voters

1 4,924 Republicans + Porter Margin: registered by 72 Hour 3,966 votes

I 7,862 Republicans 1111, Wilson Margin: registered by 72 Hour 1,395 votes

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72 Hours: AbsenteeIEarly Vote Effort

Voting prior to Election Day carried GOP candidates in close rases

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CaIifornia-50 (Bilbray) Colorado-04 (Musgrave)

. - 3

Prior to June special Prior to Election Day, election, GOP held GOP held 20,991-vote 14,912-vote advantage advantage over Dems, over Dems ,52%-32%. 46%-30%. .1 e i

. ! - . 8 -

GOP Victorv Marain GOP Victorv Marain:

~q* : 95 votes 5,984 votes + +Lt ;

72 Hours: Voter Contact Made a Difference in Individual Races

35.0 million voter contacts made between 2/17 and 1117; 12.9 million contacts in the last 96 hours.

585,164 voter contacts (41,666 on E-Day) Reichert Margin: 7,341 votes

448,908 voter contacts -b Porter Margin: 3,966 votes (19,268 on E-Day)

I 335f071 voter contacts Wilson Margin: 1,395 votes (26,203 on €-Day)

I 282,674 voter contacts Pyca Margin: 3,536 votes (12,000 on E-Day)

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Case Study: Nevada-03

Turnout Bv Partv Turnout Bv GOW Universe

GOP DEM IND GOTV Non-GON

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72-Hour Improved On Final Poll Standing

Final Poll

It - w

Election Result A

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44% 43%

43% 4 1%

44% 46%

46% 46%

44% 44%

Davis Lucas

Bachmann Wetterling

Roskam Duckworth

Pryce Kil roy

Gerlach Murphy

5 1 O/o

44%

5 1 O/O

44%

51% 49%

. 51% 49%

5 1% 49%

+6

+5

+2

+2

+2

Campaigns Without 72 Hour Lost Ground

A

54% Hayes 50% b - 38% Kissell 50% -16

4 50% Northup 49 O/o

37% Yarmuth 5 1 O/o -15

m 49% Leach 48% 44% Loebsack 5 1%

-8

- L

1 47% Hart 48% I 46% Altmire 52% -5

43% Taylor 46% 49% 54% -2

Shuler

Final Boll Election Result

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2008 House Targets: Top 20 - - -

BC '04 % lr - - "- '06 DEM 9/0

Y". ---.-/ - - .-

. . d. .- . ~

Mahoney - . - 4 9 ~ 3. . I ~ 7s -= 0

&$$ . .:::.~ : McNerney ~ -~ -:-a - - ~ - 53%

OH

IN

PA

PA

1;- IN E NC

TX

WI

O A

fN

(PA

i Space

9 Hill

10 Carney -

08 Murphy

1 Boyda

7 Sestak

8 Ellsworth

11 Ohuler

23 Rodriguez

8 Krrpan

8 Marshall

2 Donnelly

12 Barrow

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I 2008 House GOP Defense PRIORITY DEFENSE

BC '04 O/o '06 GOP % '*, ; ;

Young * . L-. -.

57%

- I - - 62%

MCKM

. .- : - , - N /A

' " 65%

57%

Kirk .:*,<?:. -!- -2.-

53% Hasbrt * T3'. &&,- ; -.z:.. .

60%

Lewis =--I..' -~-. . 55% ;.- j&&

l i n d a l * - ~ ~

S W

mrtlstt * -- 1 S9we t h l a n * L * ,rT

. . . 6344,

Walbera ?-:- . - . -

51%

Myrick * -,- -- B P k ',* Regula * -- - -. . EO% Dent ~~ ;- DWQ mvis * 55%

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& Battle for the Senate 2008 (21 Republicans, 12 Democrats)

r NH a

- I

Senate

33 TOTAL RACES

21 Defense

12 Defense

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& Yle for the Senate 2008 (21 Republicans, 12 Democrats)

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F M e for Governors "07/"08 (7 Republicans, 7 Democrats)

(Gregoire) -v"H MT 1

Republican Offense (4 states)

Republican Defense (5 states)

Not Competitive (5 states) No Race (36 states)