Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Climate Change Research Division

BERAC Spring meeting

May 20, 2008

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Climate Change Research DivisionClimate Change Research Division

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

DOE Climate Change Research DOE Climate Change Research Program BudgetProgram Budget

FY 2008 Budget, $M

ARM Research $14.8

ARM Infrastructure 35.3

Atmospheric Science Program 12.6

Climate Modeling (CCPP) 31.0

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle 13.4

Ecosystem Research 13.2

Integrated Assessment 4.8

Mitigation (Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration) 4.7

Education 1.4

SBIR/STTR 3.8

TOTAL $139.7

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Climate Change Research ProgramClimate Change Research Program

Organized into four major groups– Climate Change Forcing

• Wanda Ferrell, Kiran Alapaty, Rickey Petty & Ashley Williamson and Roger Dahlman

– Climate Change Modeling• Anjuli Bamzai

– Climate Change Response• Jeff Amthor, Bob Vallario

– Climate Change Mitigation• Roger Dahlman

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Forcing: ARM - InfrastructureForcing: ARM - Infrastructure

• Continuous field measurements and data products that promote the improvement of cloud science in climate models

• Currently supports three fixed facilities

• One mobile facility

– Deployed yesterday

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Forcing – ARM InfrastructureForcing – ARM Infrastructure

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

0 100 200

Bsca (1/Mm)

Pre

ss

ure

(m

b)

405 nm

532 nm

780 nm

Successfully completed the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) to study properties of arctic aerosols during April and compare with those measured during the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment in October 2004

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Forcing – ARM Science ProgramForcing – ARM Science Program

Indirect Effect of Arctic Aerosols in the Infrared

• Barrow, Alaska – NSA Site – 6 years of CN measurements

• Increased Anthropogenic Aerosols during Arctic spring in Low level stratiform clouds leads to about 4 W/m2 increase in down-welling longwave radiation

• Warmer Arctic (surface & lower atmosphere)ARM PIs: Lubin & Vogelmann, Nature, January 2006

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Double ITCZ Problem alleviated – JJA Precipitation

Forcing – ARM Science ProgramForcing – ARM Science Program

mm/day

New Convection Scheme

Existing Convection Scheme

Obs. Analysis

• The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) predicted double rainfall bands due to spurious second ITCZ

• The ARM cloud parameterization was improved to avoid this spurious additional precipitation band across the pacific ocean

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Forcing – Atmospheric Science Forcing – Atmospheric Science ProgramProgram

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Forcing – Atmospheric Science Forcing – Atmospheric Science ProgramProgram

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Atmosphere

TerrestrialEcosystem

Veg Process

C Quantity

SoilProcess

C Quantity

Research Approach Integration

CO2/CarbonClimate Forcing

ObservationsIsotopes

Fluxmeasurement

PhotosynthesisNPP, NEP

AggregationRes. time

Measurements

Models

Experim

ents

CO2

Cli

mat

e r

esp

on

se

uncertainties

TCP Components

Components Functions Strategy

Feedbacks

Forcing – Terrestrial Carbon Forcing – Terrestrial Carbon ProgramProgram

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Climate Change ModelingClimate Change Modeling

5 years

• Fully coupled carbon-climate simulation

• Fully coupled sulfur-atmospheric chemistry simulation

10 years

• Cloud-resolving30-km spatialresolution atmosphere climate simulation

• Fully coupled, physics, chemistry, biologyearth system model

Expected outcomes

1000

100

10

1

3

7

15

32

70

154

340

750

250

11352

1123

5

2

1

Years

Tflops

Tbytes

0 10

dyn veg

biogeochem

strat chem

cloud resolve

trop chemistry

Interactiveaerosols

eddy resolve

5

Com

pute

r per

form

ance

(Tflo

ps)

NLCF Today

Climate Roadmap (2004 - 2014)

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Climate Change ModelingClimate Change Modeling

CAM FV Scaling with tracer count

Time evolution of the model simulated ozone mixing ratio (in ppbv), global and annual average, at 10

hPa. The base simulation is in red (solid and dash), the simulation with 1970 methane is in green

and the simulation with 1970 CO2 levels and climatological SSTs is in blue.

Ammonia distributions in mixed layer and troposphere simulated by POP

Pioneering simulations of carbon, ozone, sulfur, ammonia and development of interactive

aerosol effects for an Earth System Model

Philip Cameron-Smith, Scott Elliot, David Erickson, Steve Ghan, J-F Lamarque, Art Mirin

Active Chemistry in the Community Climate System Model

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Response - Ecosystem ResearchResponse - Ecosystem Research

• Ecosystem questions, research across scales• Mechanisms Prediction

• Warming, CO2, precipitation

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Response – Integrated Response – Integrated Assessment ResearchAssessment Research

Human SystemsImpactsImpactsCoastal Flooding & Storm Damage; Regional Water

Quantity & Quality; Managed Forests;

Agriculture; Bio-Energy; Overall Energy Demands,

Reliability, and Vulnerabilities; Wild Life &

Terrestrial & Marine Ecosystem Damages &

Shifting Geography; Tipping Points; Human

Health, Features of Human Settlements; Populations & Migration; Land Use, Biodiversity, Economic

Productivity

Human DriversHuman Drivers• Emissions & Concentrations: CO2, CH4,

CO, N2O, NOx, SOx, NH3, CFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, VOCs, BC, OC, etc.

• Land Use & Land Cover Changes: terrestrial carbon cycle, albedo, hydrology, surface roughness, etc.

• Marine & Aquatic Changes: Nutrient, sediments, pollution & runoff, etc.

Earth System

Human Human Responses & Responses &

AdaptationAdaptation

Natural ResponsesNatural ResponsesAmbient Temperature, Sea Level,

Ice/Permafrost, Precipitation, Winds, Ocean Circulation, Ocean Acidity, Storm Frequency, Trace Gas Fluxes (CO2, CH4,

N2O), Episodic Extremes, Soil Properties, Vegetation & Carbon Cycle, Albedo

Energy

Economy

Security

Settlements

Food

Health

Managed Ecosystems

TechnologyScience

Transport

Population

volcanic forcing

Solar forcing

Etc.

ATMOSPHERE

OCEAN

LAND

SEA ICESEA ICE

Coping Strategies

Impact Mitigation

• 57 preapplications and 20 full applications received for new solicitation on impacts/adaptation (~$850k/yr)

• Co-funded NAS Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability workshop

• Work continues on scenarios and coordination between the IAM, ESM, and IAV communities for a potential IPCC 5th Assessment

• Co-funded planned (July 21-22) ANL/University Workshop on uncertainty methods in IA

• US CCSP Principals briefed on ORNL study to inventory U.S. and international climate change impacts/adaptation research

• Plans underway to explore MIT/NCAR deep dive modeling capabilities using combined elements of models

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Climate Change MitigationClimate Change Mitigation

• CSiTE Paradigm– Scientific and technological advances are possible that will significantly impact the

development of improved strategies for the enhancing C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems

• CSiTE Goals– Discover & characterize links between critical pathways & mechanisms for creating

larger and longer-lasting C pools in terrestrial ecosystems– Establish the scientific basis for enhancing C capture and long-term C sequestration

in terrestrial ecosystems by developing:• Scientific understanding of C capture & sequestration mechanisms in terrestrial ecosystems across

multiple scales from the molecular to landscapes• Conceptual and simulation models for extrapolation of process understanding across spatial &

temporal scales• Estimates of C sequestration potential nationally, leading to global estimates• Assessments of environmental impacts & economic implications of C sequestration

• CSiTE Approach– Consortium of Labs implement field and Laboratory investigations (ORNL, ANL,

PNNL)– Field research focuses on switchgrass systems in concert with Biofuels Program

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Response - Science EducationResponse - Science Education

Global Change Education Program (GCEP)

• Summer Undergraduate Research Experience (SURE)

• Graduate Research Environmental Fellowships (GREF)

Susan Randles, PhD from Princeton receives Marvin L. Wesely Distinguished Graduate Research Environmental Fellowship Award

Office of Science

U.S. Department of Energy

Questions?Questions?