OHIO’S CHANGING

DEMOGRAPHICS AND

THEIR IM

PACT ON

MUNICIPALIT

IES

R E G I ON A L I S

M AN D R

E V I TA L I Z

A T I ON

Alison D. Goebel, PhDAssociate DirectorGreater Ohio Policy Center

October 29, 2015

ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTERAn outcome-oriented statewide non-profit that champions revitalization and sustainable redevelopment in Ohio:

• Revitalize Ohio’s urban cores and metropolitan regions

• Achieve sustainable land reuse and economic growth

ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER: SUBJECT AREA EXPERTISE

Urban regenerationSustainably revitalize urban cores and neighborhoodsTransportation & infrastructure modernizationDevelop improved & modern infrastructureRegional growthPromote regional economic development & collaborative governance structures

ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER: HOW WE DO OUR WORK

• Develop and publish research

• Use research to advocate for practical policy solutions at the state level

• Assist communities through strategic assistance and dissemination of best practices

• Build collaborative partnerships to extend our reach and ability to impact change

SNAPSHOT O

F OHIO’S

DEMOGRAPHICS:

CURRENT AND FU

TURE

The Challenges Facing Ohio’s Communities

OHIO’S POPULATION GROWTH HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 1970S

Exhibit 1-1. Total Population, 1910-201414,000,000

12,000,00011,594,163

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000

01910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

2014Year

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and 2014 State Total Population Estimates

OHIO’S PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH FOR NEXT 25 YEARS IS MINIMAL

2015-2040: Population growth

Ohio: expected to grow 0.04% per year (net gain of ~85,000)

• Ohio 2014 population: 11,594,163• Projected 2040 pop: 11,678,970

United States: expected to grow 0.69% per year (net gain nearly 60 million)

• US 2014 population: 318,857,056

OHIO IS AGING; OLDER COUNTIES ARE NOT EXPECTING YOUNGER COHORTS TO REPLACE AGING RESIDENTS2015: population age 55+ Projected overall population

growth 2015-2040

OHIOANS IN HOUSEHOLDS EARNING LESS THAN 120% AREA MEDIAN INCOME (2014): NOT JUST A LARGE CITY CHALLENGE

OHIO’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (2014): RURAL OHIO FACING GREATER CHALLENGES

Statewide unemployment rate in 2014: 5.7%

LAND CONSUMPTION IN OHIO HAS OUTPACED POPULATION GROWTH

• Ohio is 8th in land conversion but only 45th in population growth, nationally

• Ohio’s rate of development of acres outpaced its population growth by almost 6 times in last thirty years

COUNTY POPULATION CHANGE OUTSIDE CENTRAL CITY, 1950-2010

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

SummitStarkHamiltonCuyahogaFranklinMontgomeryLucasYoungstown

POPULATION INCREASE IN EX-URBAN COUNTIES, BUT NOT UNIFORMLY ACROSS STATE

Darker blue=most population growth

Darkest red=greatest loss of population

AS POPULATIONS SHIFT AROUND THE METRO, HOUSING IS LEFT VACANT, RAISING LIKELIHOOD OF BLIGHT, MAKING IT THAT MUCH HARDER TO MAINTAIN AN ATTRACTIVE, COMPETITIVE COMMUNITY

Note: Ottawa Co. in NW Ohio has high rates of vacancy due to the number vacation homes that are used only part of the year

CHALLENGES WITH POPULATION STAGNATION AND AGING COMMUNITIES

1. Physical decline—blighted houses, shuttered businesses, outdated commercial and industrial facilities

2. Rising Legacy Costs and Declining Tax Base• Ohio will need over $25 billion to maintain and upgrade aging water

infrastructure over the next 20 years. • Tax base shrinking with population loss.

3. Persistent Poverty and Inequity • Neighborhoods in decline are disproportionately affecting low income

populations• Remaining economic/racial disparities that bring down the rest of the

region

GOPC’S STATE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Establish innovative financing programs that support infrastructure modernization and fund brownfield redevelopment

2. Align ODOT administrative regions with state business growth efforts to improve economic development strategies and transportation investment decisions

3. Develop programming that connects entrepreneurs with vacant commercial buildings

4. Create a loan program that links small business lending with neighborhood improvement efforts

The Opportunities Facing Ohio’s Communities

OHIO IS BECOMING MORE RACIALLY/ETHNICALLY DIVERSE: THIS IS A GOOD TREND

OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES 25-34)The Millennials

(those aged 25-34) are the largest age cohort, nationally.

• In Ohio they made

up 13% of 2013 state population, still smaller than 45-54 age cohort

Under 5 years6%

5 to 9 years6%10 to 14 years

7%

15 to 19 years7%

20 to 24 years7%

25 to 34 years12%

35 to 44 years12%

45 to 54 years14%

55 to 59 years7%

60 to 64 years6%

65 to 74 years8%

75 to 84 years5%

85 years and over2%

Ohio 2013 pop distribution

OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES 25-34)

91% of Ohio’s millennials with college degrees live in the state’s 8 largest metros

STRATEGIES FO

R

SUPPO

RTING EXISTIN

G

POPU

LATIONS AND

ATTRACTIN

G & RETAINING

RESIDENTS

Ohio is a State of Regions.

Local prosperity rides on regional fortunes.

REGIONAL E

CONOMIC

DEVELO

PMEN

T

OHIO’S METROS ARE THE ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF OUR STATE AND THE KEY ENGINES TO OUR ECONOMY ARE OUR URBAN CORES

1. Toledo2. Sandusky3. Cleveland

ElyriaLorain

4. Akron5. Warren

Youngstown6. Lima7. Mansfield8. Canton9. Steubenville

10. Dayton Piqua11. Springfield12. Columbus Lancaster Newark13. East Liverpool14. Cincinnati Hamilton Middletown15. Ironton16. Marietta

THE VAST MAJORITY OF OHIOANS LIVE IN A METRO

Almost every single Ohioan lives within an hour’s drive of an urbanized area.

Clockwise: Piqua; Mansfield; Cincinnati

81% of all Ohioans live in 1 of 16 metro regions

Ohio’s 16 metro regions hold 84% of the state’s jobs

Ohio’s 16 metro regions produce 87% of the state’s GDP

Half of the state’s population lives within 10 miles of an urban core.

OHIO’S MAJOR URBAN COUNTIES CONTAIN THE JOBS THAT EMPLOY THE METRO REGION

Green=“inflow of workers” (i.e. county receives workers commuting from another county)

Blue=“outflow of workers” (i.e. residents leave county for their job)

WHY REGIONS MATTER FOR ECONOMIC REGROWTH• Municipalities, suburbs, and

townships and their regions are economically interdependent

• Regional development and regional attraction will be the only way to economically thrive, in the long term

Cleveland

Akron

Canton

Youngstown

Lorain Northeast OHIO: five legacy citiesembedded in a single region ofover 5,000 mi2

REGIONAL INITIATIVES: LONG TERM ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY

Urban centers, suburbs, and rural townships are embedded in larger economic regions, which is how other areas of the country are succeeding

REGIONAL INITIATIVES: COMMUNITY SUSTAINABILITY

Central Ohio’s insight2050

INTERGOVERNMENTAL COLLABORATION & COOPERATION IS CRITICAL

Local Governme

nt

Metropolitan Planning Organizatio

nsEducation

Service Centers

County Engineer

s

County Executive or

County Commissione

rs

Major cities

COLLABORATION, COOPERATION, AND SELECTIVE CONSOLIDATION LEADS TO:

Economies of scale

Improved local

government accountability

Equalization of service

quantity and quality

Coordinated economic

competitiveness

Ability to retain local community

character and flavor

REGIONAL UPSHOT

Looking beyond jurisdictional boundaries allows communities to maximize resources and identify new markets

Multi-faceted public/private partnerships are capable of driving sustained regeneration, on a regional basis

Effective ties between cities and their regions to foster stronger economic growth for both

Maintaining and creating attractive communities in which people want to live

COMMUNITY DEV

ELOPM

ENT

OPPORTUNITIES TO LEVERAGE AND ATTRACT RESIDENTS IN KEY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS

Nationally, the market is seeking walking able neighborhoods that are denser and are mixed-use.

Millennials and Baby Boomers are returning to cities and older suburbs.

Baby boomer, as they age, may have fewer options and lower desire to live in ex-urban areas as driving becomes untenable for some

Immigrants are significant contributors to population growth and economic regeneration and are less interested in suburban-style communities

STRATEGIES THAT ARE MAKING AN IMPACT

1. Target resources in viable neighborhoods, especially neighborhoods facing economic challenges but that can “tip back” to health

2. Focus on rebuilding the downtown or core of community

3. Leverage economic assets to build competitive advantages

4. Repurpose vacant land and buildings for new uses

ASSETS TO LEVERAGE IN OLDER COMMUNITIES

• Great “bones” – historic buildings, cultural assets, eds and meds, existing infrastructure

• Lifestyle and affordability • Inherent walkability – “streetcar

suburbs” and “main street” communities

• Sense of community • Excess land ripe for redevelopment

THE MARKET WANTS WALKABLE NEIGHBORHOODS AND THEY ARE COST EFFECTIVE!

Walkable neighborhoods with transportation options save money and resources

Downtown Mansfield, Mansfield Ohiofrom http://www.hivelocitymedia.com/cities/Mansfield/

WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTSustainable Development: is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

In Ohio this means building urban, suburban and rural communities with housing and transportation choices near jobs, shops and schools.

 More compact development puts existing capacity to work, lowers infrastructure costs per capita, and helps ensure infrastructure is maintained before repairs get expensive.

SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IS COST EFFECTIVE

In general, sustainable growth development costs one-third less for upfront infrastructure, such as: new construction of roads, sewers, and water lines.

Source: “Building Better Budgets: A National Examination of the Fiscal Benefits of Smart Growth Development,” Smart Growth America, May 2013

SUSTAINABLE GROWTH IS COST EFFECTIVESustainable growth development saves taxpayers an average of 10 percent on ongoing delivery of services, such as

police, ambulance, and fire service costs,

by reducing distances service vehicles must drive.

Source: “Building Better Budgets: A National Examination of the Fiscal Benefits of Smart Growth Development,” Smart Growth America, May 2013

CRITICAL NEXT STRATEGIES: STRATEGIC INCREMENTALISM FOR OHIO’S COMMUNITIES

• Requires a coherent vision of the future. Clear long-term goals grounded in small, but achievable steps

• Be creative in identifying assets in your community and leverage them

• Set clear long-term goals and identify small, achievable steps to get you there

• Look beyond jurisdictional boundaries maximize resources and identify new markets

STATE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS• Increase state funding and federal funds flexed

for transit

• Improve communities’ ability to revitalize vacant and abandoned buildings

• Implement a statewide Safe Streets policy to ensure safety of all users and encourage economic development

GOPC RESEARCH TO BE RELEASED IN 2015

• Study of Opportunity neighborhoods in Ohio

• Analysis of what gives some small and medium-sized cities their competitive edge

QUESTIONS?

Alison D. Goebel, PhD

Associate Director

Greater Ohio Policy Center

agoebel@greaterohio.org@alisongoebelOH

www.greaterohio.org614-224-0187