oil & energy markets: shifting landscape, … · total products imports total products exports...
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OIL & ENERGY MARKETS:
SHIFTING LANDSCAPE, TRADING OPPORTUNITIES
May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 1
Gunvor – Integrated Global Trading
May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 2
Crude Oil(60%)
Fuel Oil
Gasoil
Gasoline
Naphtha
LPGBiofuel
Crude Oil (30%)
Fuel Oil
Gasoil
NatGas + LNG
Coal
Gasoline
Naphtha LPG Biofuel
2009: 98 MT mn 2012: 136 MT mn
A Balanced Trading Portfolio
May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 3
GEOGRAPHICAL
EXPANSION
PRODUCT
DIVERSIFICATION
INVESTMENTS
ALONG THE
VALUE CHAIN
• New Offices
• New Partnerships
• Expanded Trading
• New Desks
• Acquisitions
• Greenfield Projects
• Brownfield Projects
Group Strategy
May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 4
• Ust Luga Oil Products Terminal (Russia) 100%
• Ust Luga Crude Oil Pipeline (Russia) 50%
• Novorossiysk Fuel Oil Terminal (Russia) 50%
• Petroterminal de Panama, S.A. (Panama) 16%
• Independent Belgium Refinery BV (Belgium) 100%
• Gunvor Raffinerie Deutschland GmbH (Germany) 100%
• TAL Pipeline (Italy, Austria, Germany) 10%
Signal Peak (United States) 33%
• LLC Kolmar (Russia) 30%
• Keaton Energy Holdings Ltd (South Africa) 24%
• Lagansky Block (Caspian Sea) 30%
Midstream
Downstream
Upstream
Gunvor – Investment Strategy
Across the Value Chain
5 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
Weaker Pure Trading Margins & IOC Divestments
Prompt Trader Investment in Assets
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
$/b
bl
ICE Brent daily high-low spreads
Public equity & debt offerings of physical commodity traders, $US billion
A Transformed U.S. Oil Landscape
6 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
kb/d
US crude oil production
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
J73J75J77J79J81J83J85J87J89J91J93J95J97J99J01J03J05J07J09J11J13
kb/d
US net oil products exporter since mid-2011
Total products imports Total products exports
Graphic: Financial Times
Other New Upstream Hotspots Too..
…Many with High Political or Infrastructure Risk
0
2
4
6
8
10
mb
/d
The IEA view on Iraqi supply potential
Central scenario
High case
Iraq: physical potential confronts logistical & political barriers
7 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
Source: IEA 2012
May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 8
Global Trade and GDP Growth
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
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20
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20
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09
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20
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20
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20
18
mb
/d v
s. b
ase
cas
e
real
GD
P g
row
th,
%
Economic risks & oil demand
oil demand impact IMF 09/11 IMF 10/12
low growth IMF 4/13
source: WTO
Macro Outlook Uncertainty
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
19
70
19
72
19
74
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76
19
78
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00
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12
y-o
-y g
row
th, k
b/d
Oil demand growth now an emerging market story
OECD growth China growth Other non OECD growth
Energy Demand: Relentless Shift to Emerging Markets
Primary Energy Growth 2011-2030 Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030
9 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
Oil & Transport Grab the Headlines,
but Power Sector Runs on Coal
source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2012
source: ExxonMobil, Energy Outlook 2013
10 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
Rising Gas Supplies & Inroads to the Transport Sector
Source: IEA MTGMR 2012
Source: ExxonMobil
New LNG Supplies 2011-2017
11 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
% p
er
year
China oil demand and GDP growth
oil demand growth GDP growth
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Oil intensity, bbl/$000 GDP
China
World
USA
China Looms Large as Oil & Energy Demand Motor
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
oil gas coal total
mill
ion
to
ns
oil
eq
uiv
ale
nt
China accounts for 45% of incremental hydrocarbon energy 1981-2011
China
RoW
World
12 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 13
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
J01 J
J02 J
J03 J
J04 J
J05 J
J06 J
J07 J
J08 J
J09 J
J10 J
J11 J
J12 J
J13
$/b
bl
Margins unexpectedly strong in 2012...
...but weaker ex-US in 2013
SING Crack Dubai N.WE crack Brent Med Crack Urals
USG crack LLS Chicago crack WTI
New East of Suez Capacity
Puts European Refining Under Pressure
• Declining demand, plus surge in new capacity east of Suez…
• …means focus of rationalisation is in Europe
• North America shielded by cheap feedstock & energy costs
• Some OECD Asian capacity benefits from proximity to growth markets
• Distressed capacity converted to terminals, sold to NOCs & trading
companies or closed
IEA 2012
Rising Refined Products Trade
• US is already seeing rising crude output, less imports, maturing oil
demand, so trade shifts to products exports
• New refining capacity in the Middle East and other producing areas,
emergence of India and China as exporters of key products
• Global products trade may grow faster than crude in the next decade
-1.5-1
-0.50
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.5
incr
em
en
t, m
b/d
Refining additions vs oil demand growth 2011-2017
Primary refining additions Oil demand growth
14 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities 15
Year 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Sales in EU27+2 (Mt/a) 61.9 52.9 56.8 59.4 60.9 61.5
Inland Waterway Diesel 5.0 4.8 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.3
Distillate Marine Fuel 7.4 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.6
ECA Bunker (Residual) 13.4 11.3
ECA Bunker (Distillate) 13.2 14.0 14.7 15.1
Non-ECA Ferries Bunker (Residual) 5.4 4.6 3.7
Non-ECA Ferries Bunker (Distillate) 3.6 3.7 3.8
Residual Bunker Global non-ECA 30.6 26.0 27.1 28.4 29.2 29.7
Maximum Sulphur Limits (%m/m) 2.7 2.1 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3
Inland Waterway Diesel 0.1 0.1 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001
Distillate Marine Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
ECA Bunker (Residual) 1.5 1.0
ECA Bunker (Distillate) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Non-ECA Ferries Bunker (Residual) 1.5 1.5 1.5
Non-ECA Ferries Bunker (Distillate) 0.1 0.1 0.1
Residual Bunker Global non-ECA 4.5 3.5 3.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Bunker Sulphur Regs Will Hit Trade Flows Too
Pump It Move It Refine It Store It Sell It Move It
16 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
A Bright Future for the Trading Companies
Assets must enhance, or benefit from, core business
• More diversified geographically, across products
and along the value chain
• But trading remains central to everything we do
May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,
Trading Opportunities
Thank you for your attention