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Oil & Gas UK Exploration Conference 2018Prospect Maturation & Post well Lookbacks: Sharing Good Practices for Success
Key Messages from the 2017 Exploration Drilling Programme
Alana Finlayson
Senior Exploration Geologist February 2018
Graphic3
Today’s agenda
2017 Performance
Rig Programme
Post Well Analysis Themes
Risk and Resource Assessment
• To date 16 wells concluded at an average well
cost of £21.5mm – halved since 2014
• 172 mmboe potentially commercial recoverable
resources in 7 discoveries
• 38% commercial, 44% technical success rate
• COS risking accurate, discovered volumes in
line with expectations
• Finding cost $2.5/boe @ $/£ 1.25
2017 Exploration Drilling Provisional Results – as at Prospex 2017….
Titan
Achmelvich
S. Maclure x 2
Capercaillie
Verbier
Shearwater
Sean Q
Temple Wood
Sturgeon
Sween
PartridgeRanger
Jock Scott
Craster
Rona Ridge*
* Rona Ridge under evaluation
E&A Well Activity
2017 2018 2019Q1 Q2 Q4Q3
CN
SN
NS
SN
S /
EIS
Wo
S
Winchelsea
Jock Scott
Verbier
Halifax
Avalon
S Maclure Mariner Seg 9/10
Skene N Tr
Titan
Callater SE
Shearwater
Yeoman
Q1 Q2 Q4Q3Q1 Q2 Q4Q3
Partridge
Trias
Craster
Sween
Sturgeon
Temple
Wood
Sean Q
Ranger
Achmelvich
Ravenspurn R1+DST
Capercaillie
Harrier
Exploration
Appraisal
Some rhetorical questions
Play analysis• Are we play as well as prospect driven?
Prospect evaluation• Do we deliver against our predictions?
• Do we consistently address risk and resource?
Portfolio analysis• What are our targets?
• Do we consistently value & rank our plays & prospects?
• Do we target the optimal drilling opportunities?
UKCS Discovered Resource 1965-2014
P01
P02
P05
P10
P20
P30
P40
P50
P60
P70
P80
P90
P95
P98
P99
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0 10000.0
Pro
bab
ility
of
esce
edan
ce
Rec Resource (mmboe)
1st Third 1965-1984:
2nd Third 1984-1993:
3rd Third 1993-2014:
UKCS Discovered Resource 2015-17
P01
P02
P05
P10
P20
P30
P40
P50
P60
P70
P80
P90
P95
P98
P99
0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0 10000.0
Pro
bab
ility
of
esce
edan
ce
Rec Resource (mmboe)
1st Third 1965-1984:
2nd Third 1984-1993:
3rd Third 1993-2014:
2015-2017 discoveries
New plays
Chance of success
• OGA using historical well data to
calculate success rates for plays
across UKCS
• Historical success rates across all
plays tested 2015-17 45.3%
• Industry predicted COS 44.9%
• Actual success rate 45.2%
• When risking prospects take into
account historical success rates
and risk prospects relative to this
Reminder - Post-well analysis themes
• Missing regional play-based work, including charge
• Data/Knowledge limitations; postage stamps, acqn, management, continuity
• Improved peer review, performance tracking and continuous learning
• External impacts - corporate/NV, Firm wells [schedule, rigs, oil price]
• Over-reliance on geophysics / DHI & lack of geological model
Christian Mathieu Dec’15, 98 wells, 24 companies, 2003-2013 https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/exploration-production/exploration/21st-century-roadmap/
Post-well analysis themes- Geophysics
Why do things go wrong?
Misunderstood amplitude anomalies
• Consider alternative scenarios e.g. ‘freak’ lithologies
• Do the basic rock physics analysis
Poorly calibrated geophysical models
• Make sure that all available data is used
• Highlight data that doesn’t fit the model
Amplitude anomalies not evaluated/risked in a systematic manner
• More use of existing risk evaluation applications
Organisational culture - staff unable to challenge geophysical experts
• Continual learning
Key messages
UKCS exploration metrics on an upward trend
Discovered volumes predictable; discovery rates are high
E&A successes delivered across a range of basins and plays
What more can be done to stimulate E&A activity in UKCS?
OGA, industry and government need to continue to work together
Thank youQuestions?