oil market dynamics and impact on base oil trends · • weekly inventory levels o us crude stocks...
TRANSCRIPT
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London
Houston
Washington
New York
Portland
Calgary
Santiago
Bogota
Rio de Janeiro
Singapore
Beijing
Tokyo
Sydney
Dubai
Moscow
Astana
Kiev
Porto
Johannesburg
Riga
Market Reporting
Consulting
Events
Oil Market Dynamics and Impact on Base Oil Trends
Louise BurkeILMA Management ForumApril 2016
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Market Reporting
Consulting
Events
Presentation overview
1. Oil Market factors
2. Impact on Base Oils
3. Outlook: review of the coming year
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• Geopolitical issues
o OPEC
o Iran
o Russia
• Fundamental issues
o Demand – US/IEA/OECD/Asia
o Supply – Inventory levels/Production
Does Crude Oil and Gasoline Demand matter?
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• Weekly Inventory levels o US crude stocks increased by 9.4mn bl to 532.5mn bl last week amid a sharp rise in imports and lower production, marking a sixth
consecutive week of builds, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
• Weekly Crude Production o US crude production dropped by 30,000 b/d to about 9mn b/d. Output in the lower 48 states dropped by 20,000 b/d while production in
Alaska slid by 10,000 b/d.
• Weekly Crude Imports o Imports increased by 691,000 b/d to about 8.4mn b/d. Over the last four weeks, crude imports averaged about 8.1mn b/d, or 11.6pc higher
than the same period last year, the EIA said.
• Refiner Processing rate o US refiners processed about 15.8mn b/d in the week ended 18 March, down by 176,000 b/d from the
previous week. Refineries operated at 88.4pc of capacity.
Why does Crude Oil this matter?
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illuminating the markets
Between Jan 2010 and Jan 2016, oil price peaked in Q1 2012
$1
$21
$41
$61
$81
$101
$121
$141
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
LLS USD/bl Brent USD/bl Dubai USD/bl
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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illuminating the markets
Crude forecast to fall in the short-term before stabilizing at around $33/bl in
2017
Argus Crude Outlook – March 2016
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17
Argus Brent Forecast ($/bl) Argus LLS Forecast ($/bl)
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illuminating the markets
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17
Argus Brent Forecast ($/bl) Argus LLS Forecast ($/bl) EIA Brent/WTI Forecast ($/bl)
Argus forecasts in line with EIA expectations
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook – March 2016
Argus Crude Outlook – March 2016
2016 Apr to Dec Average ($/bl)Argus Brent forecast - $33Argus LLS forecast - $35EIA Brent/WTI forecast - $35
2017 Jan-Mar Average ($/bl)Argus Brent forecast - $33Argus LLS forecast - $34EIA Brent/WTI forecast - $36
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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illuminating the markets
US outright prices projected to be lowest in at least 7 years
Annual Average
($/t)
US N100 fob US N220 fob US N600 fob
2010 $916 $939 $1102
2011 $1,246 $1,281 $1,444
2012 $1,166 $1,187 $1,384
2013 $967 $1,007 $1,226
2014 $901 $909 $1,106
2015 $558 $560 $757
2016f $407 $408 $678
Argus Base Oils Outlook – March 2016
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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• Demand for Gasoline has increased due to lower crude prices and
refined product prices
• Largest increase in gasoline demand in 5 years
• Increase in auto size/mileage
• Lighter crudes produce more gasoline
• Lighter crudes product more lighter base stock which impacts on
availability of heavy grades
Why does Gasoline Demand Matter?
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• Gasoline cracks were the
strongest for more than five
years
• Also supporting naphtha, a
product that looks structurally
long
2015 regional gasoline cracks
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$/bl Singapore gasoline vs. Dubai
5-year range
Singapore Gasoline 95r
— Argus
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$/bl USGC gasoline vs. LLS 5-year range
USGC Gasoline Conv 87
— Argus
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
$/bl NWE gasoline vs. North Sea Dated
5-year range
NWE 95r mogas
— Argus
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
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Why was gasoline so strong in 2015?
• Strongest growth in gasoline demand
in over a decade
• Demand in OECD economies reacted
positively to lower prices
• Strong demand and a refining sector
that has invested heavily in
maximising distillate yields resulted
in a tight gasoline market in 2015
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Year on year demand growth
OECD Total
2014 Average
— IEA, Argus Consulting
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Global gasoline demand growth
— IEA, JODI, Argus Consulting
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gasoline demand growth
China India
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
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Link with other grades: US heavy-grade prices surge in 2H 2015
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All
rights reserved.
$1.70
$1.90
$2.10
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$2.90
$3.10
$3.30
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15
Motiva Grp II N100 ($/USG) Argus domestic N100 ($/USG) Motiva N600 ($/USG) Argus domestic N600 ($/USG)
Light-heavy spread increases to widest in
more than four years
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illuminating the markets
US heavy-grade prices remain supported by ongoing structural supply-tightness
Argus Base Oils Outlook – March 2016
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
-20
80
180
280
380
480
580
Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Jun-16 Mar-17
N220 - N100 N600 - N100
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Key Factors that Impact on Base Oils prices
Monthly Base Oil Price Forecast
Statistical Relationship
with Historical
Prices
Latest Market
Intelligence
Crude, Gasoil,
Diesel, VGO and relevant
Crack Spreads
Seasonal Trends
Market Trends and
Developments
Short-Term Base Oil Supply
Schedule
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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• Crude Oil price outlook
• Price trend analysis with reference to
seasonality patterns and
fundamentals
• Intra-grade spreads
• Intra-group spreads
• Gasoil/diesel spreads
• Maintenance and shutdown table
Base Oils Forecast – What is Important
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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illuminating the markets
Sliding crude prices
Clearing of stockpile built up ahead of several plant closures
Removal of Iranian sanctions
Bearish factors in 1H 2016 Supply tightness
caused by completion of the closure of base oil plants
Slight recovery in crude prices
Delayed switch to Group II supplies to support demand for Group I base oils
Bullish factors in 2H 2016
Base oil prices in 2016:
Bearish and bullish factors
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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illuminating the markets
Sliding crude prices
Clearing of stockpile built up ahead of several plant closures
Removal of Iranian sanctions
Bearish factors in 1H 2016 Supply tightness
caused by completion of the closure of base oil plants
Slight recovery in crude prices
Delayed switch to Group II supplies to support demand for Group I base oils
Bullish factors in 2H 2016
Base Oil prices in 2016:Bearish and bullish factors
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Supply Fundamentals –European closures
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Shell Pernis, 370,000 t/yr4Q 2015 & 1H 2016
KPC Europoort, 235,000 t/yrJanuary 2016
Colas, 335,000 t/yrApril 2015
Total Gonfreville, 250,000 t/yr4Q 2015
ExxonMobil, 645,000 t/yrFrom 4Q 2015
Sapref, 170,000 t/yr2Q-3Q 2015
Lukoil Nizhniy Novgorod, 290,000 t/yrApril 2015
Lukoil Perm, 460,000 t/yr1Q 2015
Rosneft Angarsk, 250,000 t/yr2Q 2015
Gazpromneft Omsk, 240,000 t/yr1Q-2Q 2015
Gazpromneft/Rosneft Yaroslavl, 350,000 t/yr2Q 2015
MOL, 150,000 t/yr3Q 2015
ENI, 645,000 t/yr1Q-2Q 2015
Permanent (partial) closures
Maintenance
Temporary shutdown
Samir, 125,000 t/yrFrom 3Q 2015
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Refinery maintenance in 3Q 2015-1Q 2016 absorb surplus supplies
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Global 2015 maintenance peaks in Asia in Q2-Q3
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Taiwan: (FPCC) 520,000 t/yr – Q1-Q2 2015
S. Korea: (SK Lubricants) 2.45mn t/yr – Q1-Q2 2015
S. Korea: (S-Oil) 1.42mn t/yr –Q2 2015
S. Korea: (S-Oil) 660,000 t/yr –Q3 2015
Japan: (Idemitsu) 305,000 t/yr (Q2 2015)
Japan: (Cosmo) 350,000 t/yr – Q2 2015
Japan: (JX Nippon) 400,000 t/yr (Q2-Q3 2015)
Japan: (JX Nippon) 180,000 t/yr – Q3-Q4 2015
India: (HPCL) 480,000 t/yr –Q2 2015
China: (PetroChina Karamay) 400,000 t/yr – Q2-Q3 2015
China: (Hainan Handi) 300,000 t/yr –Q2-Q3 2015
China: (Sinopec Jingmen) 300,000 t/yr – Q3-Q4 2015)
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illuminating the markets
US Group II prices projected to hold in a relatively narrow range over next 12 months
Argus Base Oils Outlook – March 2016
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Jun-16 Mar-17
N100 fob ($/t) N220 fob ($/t) N600 fob ($/t)
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illuminating the markets
US light-grades price strength expected to be range-bound.
US heavy-grade price strength projected to fall from record high last year but still high compared to
historical levels
Price strength ratio = base oil price / crude priceArgus Base Oils Outlook – March 2016
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17
US N100 US N220 US N600
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illuminating the markets
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Jun-16 Mar-17
4cst dom ($/t)
US Group III prices continue to face pressure, reflecting existing inherent price strength and rise in
production capacity
Argus Base Oils Outlook – March 2016
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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illuminating the markets
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Jun-16 Mar-17
4cst dom ($/t)
US Group III prices expected to continue to face pressure, reflecting existing inherent price strength
and rise in production capacity
Argus Base Oils Outlook – March 2016
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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illuminating the markets
Bright stock price then and now
Asia bright stock ($/t)
Europe brightstock ($/t)
US bright stock ($/t)
LLS ($/bl)
Brent ($/bl)
Dubai ($/bl)
Jan 2010 $895 $895 $904 $80 $77 $77
Jan 2016 $889 $896 $927 $33 $31 $27
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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illuminating the markets
Bright stock price strength expected to surge in 2016
Price strength ratio = base oil price / crude price
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2010-2014 Average 2015 Average 2016 Average
3.01
2.27
1.56
Argus Base Oils Outlook – January 2016
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illuminating the markets
Base oil prices vs. Crude Oil
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
Base oil prices holding relatively steady since August 2015 despite falling crude prices
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illuminating the markets
How sticky have base oil prices been?
Jan 2010 - Jan 2012 Jan 2012 - Jan 2016
LLS (USD/bl) +38% -70%
Brent (USD/bl) +45% -72%
Dubai (USD/bl) +43% -76%
Base oil price ($/t) ??? ???
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illuminating the markets
Asia, US base oil prices outpace crude from Jan 2010 to Jan 2012
LLS +38%
US SN 150 US SN 500 US BS US N100 US N220 USN600
+50% +27% +30% +62% +60% +43%
Brent +45%
Europe SN 150
Europe SN 500
Europe BS
+36% +31% +33%
Dubai +43%
Asia SN 150 Asia SN 500 Asia BS Asia N150 Asia N500
+54% +44% +49% +50% +52%
Copyright © 2016 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.
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illuminating the markets
Europe, US, Asia base oil prices lag crude-drop from Jan 2012 to Jan 2016
LLS -70%
US SN 150 US SN 500 US BS US N100 US N220 US N600US 4cst
dom
-58% -41% -21% -63% -63% -42% -51%
Brent -72%
Europe SN 150
Europe SN500
Europe BSEurope4cst fca
-49% -40% -25% -50%
Dubai -76%
Asia SN 150
Asia SN 500
Asia BS Asia N150 Asia N500Asia 4cst NEA cfr
Asia 4cst India cfr
Asia 4cst UAE ex-
tank
-62% -60% -33% -64% -58% -45% -49% -50%
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• Monthly publication with monthly forecast ofkey base oil prices spanning 12 months into thefuture
• Key benefits• Facilitates short-term planning/budgeting• Provides third-party reference price to
measure against internal price targets• Reduces exposure to spot price volatility
• Content overview• Full price outlook table• Regional price forecast analysis and
commentary• Analytical framework• Price trend analysis with reference to
seasonality patterns andfundamentals
• Intra-grade spreads• Intra-group spreads• Gasoil/diesel spreads
• Maintenance and shutdown table
Argus Base Oils Outlook
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Argus Base Oils: Managing spot and future price risk
Copyright © 2015 Argus Media Ltd. All
rights reserved.
• Argus Base Oils – spot market prices, news and analysis‐ www.argusmedia.com/baseoils
• Argus Base Oils Outlook – short-term price forecast
covering the next 12 months‐ http://www.argusmedia.com/Oil-Products/Argus-Base-Oils-
Outlook/
• Argus Consulting – long term forecasts, market analysis‐ http://www.argusmedia.com/Consulting/
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• Any questions?
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Louise Burke
VP, Business Development
Ph. 646 376 6142
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