Older Driver Task Force

SUPPORTING SAFE

DRIVING INTO OLD AGE

A National Older Driver Strategy

C G B (Kit) Mitchell

Set up in January 2015 by the

Road Safety Foundation,

encouraged by Department

for Transport and funded by

Ageas Insurance

Chairman John Plowman

Report published July 2016 at

http://www.roadsafetyfoundation.org/news/2016/7/4/

making-older-drivers-safer-for-longer.aspx

The goal was: “To develop a

National Older Drivers Strategy

to improve the advice, self-help

and technology available to

support the fast growing number

of older drivers.”

Number of drivers

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Ca

r d

rivin

g lic

en

ce

s, m

illio

ns

CAR DRIVERS BY AGE, GREAT BRITAIN

20-29

40-49

60-69

70-79

80+

70+

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Perc

enta

ge o

f drivers

who h

ave

let

licence lapse

.

Age

PERCENTAGE OF CAR DRIVERS WHOSE LICENCE HAS LAPSED

Women

Men

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Perc

enta

ge o

f lic

ence h

old

ers

w

ith

num

ber

of

car

driver

trip

s .

Driver age

0

1 - 5

6 - 11

12 and more

Trips in 1 week diary

Percentage of female car drivers by number

of car driver trips recorded in survey week

Importance of driving

About 70% of all adult trips

are by car

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Perc

enta

ge o

f all

trip

s

Age group

Car trips as percentage of all trips 2013-14

Men - drivers and passengers

Women - drivers and passengers

Men - drivers only

Women - drivers only

The percentage of older people

is higher in low density areas

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

po

pu

latio

n a

ge

d

70

an

d o

ve

r

Population density, persons per sq.km.

Percentage of persons aged 70 and over Great Britain 2014

West Somerset

Christchurch

Older driver safety

0

5

10

15

20

25

Drivinglicences

Milesdriven

Allcasualties

Deaths

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

all

ca

r d

rive

rs

CAR DRIVERS AGED 70+ PERCENTAGES

13%

9% 7%

20%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Perc

ent

of casualtie

s w

ho d

ie.

Age

PERCENT FATALITY OF CAR USER CASUALTIES 2010 - 14

Female car occupants

Male car occupants

0

20

40

60

80

100

16-19 20-2430-3940-4950-5960-6970-79 80+

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

ca

rs b

y s

ize

Owner age

Size of cars by owners age – women 2013-14

Mini & supermini Lower medium

Upper medium Luxury, sports & MPV

16- 20- 30- 40- 50- 60- 70- 80+

19 29 39 49 59 69 79

Danger to other road users

Drivers aged 70 and over are

involved in fewer car crashes

than any 10 year group of car

drivers aged less than 70

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

17-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 andover

Num

ber

of

car

dri

vers

in

volv

ed in c

rashes

Driver age

Car crashes, Great Britain 2014

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

17-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 andover

Num

be

r o

f car

drivers

in

volv

ed

in

cra

shes p

er

1000 d

rivin

g lic

ences

Driver age

Car crashes per driver, Great Britain 2014

Older drivers kill fewer

pedestrians

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

17-20 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 65-69 75-80

Pede

str

ians k

illed b

y c

ars

20

10

-20

14

Driver age

Pedestrians killed by cars 2010 to 2014

17- 21- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 81-

20 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 99

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Casualty r

ate

s p

er

driver

per

year

Driver age

CASUALTY RATES FOR CAR DRIVERS - 2014

Deaths per 100 million licences

All casualties per million licences

We now have data from

Ageas on insurance claims

Insurance claims by Ageas policy holders

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Cla

ims p

er

mill

ion p

olic

ies

Driver age

2013 persons

2014 persons

2015 persons

Average cost of insurance claims

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Ave

rage

cla

im s

ize £

Driver age

2013 persons

2014 persons

2015 persons

Average 2013-15

Types of accident

Older drivers are less likely

to have accidents because

they speed

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Perc

enta

ge

of fa

tal car

accid

en

ts

.

with

spee

d a

s a

causal fa

cto

r

.

Driver age

PERCENTAGE OF FATAL CAR ACCIDENTS THAT ARE SPEED-RELATED

Older drivers are more likely

to have accidents because of

right of way violations

0

10

20

30

40

50

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Perc

en

tage

of fa

tal ca

r a

ccid

en

ts

Driver age

Percentage of fatal accidents that involve right of way violations

Drivers are more likely

to have fatal accidents

at junctions after age 60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Perc

ent

of cra

shes

Driver age

Percentage of car crashes at junctions

All severity

Fatal

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Pe

rce

nt o

f a

ll ca

r cra

sh

es

Driver age

Car driver fatal crashes 2013

Roundabouts

Crossroads

T or staggered

Junction type

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Perc

ent

of cra

shes

Driver age

Car driver killed and serious (KSI) crashes at crossroads 2012-14

total

traffic signal

give way sign orno sign

The percentage of crashes

that involve turning right

across traffic increases

after age 50

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Perc

ent

of all

KS

I accid

ents

.

Driver age

Killed and serious car accidents 2013

On bend

Turning right

Slowing or stopping

Overtaking

Changing lane

On average, problems seem

to develop after age 75 or 80

Around 5 – 15% of older

drivers are outliers in various

performance tests

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Ra

tin

g fo

r m

an

oe

uvre

s

Driver age

Rating for manoeuvres Rabbitt et al, DfT RSR 29

Male drivers

Female drivers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0.33 0.67 1.00 1.33 1.67 2.00 2.33 2.67 3.00 3.33 3.67 4.00 4.33 4.67 5.00 5.33 5.67 6.00

Num

ber

of subje

cts

.

Reaction time (seconds)

HAZARD PERCEPTION REACTION TIMES VTI Report 656A, Figure 24 Levin et al

Older subjects (65 - 81)

Younger subjects (27 - 55)

0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1 2 3 4 5

Num

ber

of subje

cts

.

Score for risk category

RISK SCORES FROM UFOV TESTS VTI Report 656A, Levin et al

Young (27 - 55)

Old (65 - 81)

Very low Low Moderate Moderate to High

risk risk risk high risk risk

Driver assessment

- A package of measures is needed

to maintain the confidence of safe

drivers and identify unsafe drivers

for re-training or loss of licence;

- The Hampshire model of workshops,

voluntary appraisals, mobility centre

assessments and a specialist NDOR

course has much to commend it.

Licence renewal

There is no evidence of any

safety benefits of a more testing

process for licence renewal than

that currently used in Britain (or

the similar system in Sweden);

Can we help older drivers by

improving road design?

Protected entry slip – M27

junction 10 onto the A32 near Fareham

Small roundabouts at T-junctions

Large font direction signs, Florida

Finally, Britain compares well

with most other countries

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Death

s p

er

mill

ion d

rivin

g lic

ences.

DRIVER FATALITY RATE PER LICENCE

USA all drivers& m/c age 75+

Sweden cardrivers age 75+

Britain cardrivers age 70+

Québec driversaged 75+

France cardrivers age 70+

(assumed licence

holding)

Key points

- Older drivers are not a significant

threat to other road users, but are at

risk themselves because of fragility;

- Older drivers have a pattern of

accidents that is different from that

for young and middle-aged drivers;

- Highway design can be improved to

make driving easier and safer;

Key points (continued)

- A package of measures is needed to

maintain the confidence of safe

drivers and identify unsafe drivers

for re-training or loss of licence;

- Ways to improve cars to better

protect older occupants, particularly

females, should be developed.

Recommendations

1. Raising the age for drivers to notify the

DVLA from 70 to 75 - if the requirement for an

eye sight test is made compulsory

2. Requiring the DVLA to get evidence of an

eyesight test at licence renewal

3. Asking a consumer body to prepare specific

advice on car safety features for older drivers

4. Improving road design, signs and markings

to aid older drivers

Recommendations

5. Evaluating existing driving appraisal courses

and improving information provided to older

drivers, their families, and medical professionals

6. Piloting new products which offer an

alternative to driving for older people.

7. Pooling insurer data and research into major

claims involving older drivers to understand the

detailed causes.

Questions?

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Casualty r

ate

s p

er

dis

tance d

riven

Driver age

CASUALTY RATES FOR CAR DRIVERS - 2014

Deaths per 100 billion miles

All casualties per billion miles

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Casualty r

ate

s p

er

driver

trip

Driver age

CASUALTY RATES FOR CAR DRIVERS - 2014

Deaths per 100 billion trips

All casualties per billion trips

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Casualtie

s p

er

mill

ion lic

ences .

CAR DRIVER ALL SEVERITY RATES

Sweden age 75and over

Québec driversage 75+

USA all driversand m/c age 75+

Britain age 80and over

Britain age 70and over