olefin market

7/23/2019 Olefin Market

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POTENTIAL MARKET CONSIDERATION

Petrochemical industry on olefin base is prospective for investors especially in theirupstream and intermediate industries.

Intermediate and downstream Industries of petrochemical in Indonesia such asplastic products, pharmacy, detergent, and others are numerous. These mostly needethylene, prophylene, ethylene glycol, and polyethylene as raw material.

Domestic market potential for upstream olefin is still widely open. Projected demand

of elefin in 2010, amounted to :- Ethylene : 400.000 ton/year;

- Prophylene : 203.000 ton/year

- Polyethylene : 190.000 ton/year

- Ethylene Glycon : 403.000 ton/year

Potential export is also widely open

Petrochemical Industry will be granted fiscal facility under Government Regulation No.1 year 2007

See detail data



Forec ast PRODUCTION - LOCAL DEMAND OF ETHYLENE

IN 2006 - 2010

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

( T o n s )

Production

Local Demand

-411.947-388.820-424.245-439.232-356.606Balance +/-

896.947867.340852.533836.812855.925Local Demand

485.000478.520428.288397.580499.320Production

20102009200820072006Forecast

IMPORT - EXPORT OF ETHYLENE IN

2006 - 2010

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Years

( T o n s )

Export

Import

-513.745-498.467-483.637-469.252-455.270Balance +/-

530.100514.660499.670485.116470.987Import

16.35516.19316.03315.87415.717Export

20102009200820072006Forecast

Projected demand of ethylene in 2010 is amounted to 896.947 ton which could not be fulfilled yet domestically. Domestic

production is only 485.000 ton. The rest should be imported.

DEVELOPMENT OF PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY IN OLEFIN

BASIS

1. ETHYLENE

Petrochemical Promotion and Investment Profile, Ministry of Industry 2006, edited



PRODUCTION - LOCAL DEMAND OF PROPYLENE

IN 2000 - 2005

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

( T o n s )

Production

Local Deman-80.701-142.275-195.264-119.574-98.837-142.653Balance +/-

445.622494.515535.264456.574426.491470.616Local Demand

364.921352.240340.000337.000327.654327.963Production

200520042003200220012000(Tons)

IMPORT - EXPORT OF PROPYLENE

IN 2000 - 2005

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

( T o n s )

Export

Import

-80.701-142.275-195.264-119.574-98.837-142.653Balance +/-

80.701142.581195.264122.77498.838157.753Import

030603.200115.100Export

200520042003200220012000(Tons)

2. PROPYLENE

Domestic demand of propylene is higher than domestic production.




Forecast PRODUCTION - LOCAL DEMAND OF PROPYLENE

IN 2006 -2010

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2006 2007 2008 2009

( T o n s )

Production

Local Demand

-203.000-177.000-271.000-374.000Balance +/-

1.213.0001.155.0001.059.000972.000Local Demand

1.010.000978.000788.000598.000Production

2009200820072006

Forecast IMPORT - EXPORT OF PROPYLENE

IN 2006 -2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2006 2007 2008 2009

Years

( T o n s )

Export

Import

-203.000-177.000-271.000-374.000Balance +/-

203.000177.000271.000374.000Import

0000Export

2009200820072006

Projected demand of propylene until 2009 is amounted to 1.213.000 ton, which is supplied locally 1.010.000 ton. The rest

amounted to 203.000 ton should be fulfilled from import.

Continue 2. Propylene…..




PRODUCTION - LOCAL DEMAND OF POLYETHYLENE

IN 2000 - 2005

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

( T o n s )

Produc tion Local Demand

-230.643-245.858-171.279-143.630-97.990-62.064Balance +/-

691.270690.908601.279578.630505.990471.708Local Demand

460.627445.050430.000435.000408.000379.664Production

200520042003200220012000(Tons)

IMPORT - EXPORT OF POLYETHYLENE

IN 2000 - 2005

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Years

( T o n s ) Export

Import

-23.643-245.858-171.279-143.630-97.990-62.064Balance +/-

267.979267.793217.028216.266190.800183.491Import

37.33621.93545.74972.63692.810121.427Export

200520042003200220012000(Tons)

3. POLYETHYLENE (PE)




Forecast PRODUCTION - LOCAL DEMAND OF POLYETHYLENE IN 2006 -2010

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Years

( T o n s )

Production

Local Demand

-191.814-188.762-184.015-182.411-190.979Balance +/-

741.814738.762709.015682.411660.979Local Demand

550.000550.000525.000500.000470.000Production

20102009200820072006

Forecast IMPORT - EXPORT OF POLYETHYLENE

IN 2006 -2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

( T o n s )

Export

Import

-434.958-410.334-387.105-365.190-344.521Balance +/-

435.011410.387387.158365.243344.569Import

5353535348Export

20102009200820072006

continue 3. Polyethylene…..

Projected demand of polyethylene in 2010 is amounted to 741.814 ton which could not be fulfilled yet

domestically. Domestic production is only 550.000 ton. The rest should be imported.




PRODUCTION - LOCAL DEMAND OF ETHYLENE GLYCOL

IN 2000 - 2005

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

( T o n s )

Production

Local Demand

-158.224-191.272-211.124-324.011-389.129-385.596Balance +/-

360.049386.272401.253504.061568.579625.196Local Demand

201.825195.000190.129180.050179.450239.600Production

200520042003200220012000(Tons)

IMPORT - EXPORT OF ETHYLENE

GLYCOL IN 2000 - 2005

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Years

( T o n s )

Export

Import

-158.224-191.272-211.124-324.011-389.129-385.596Balance +/-

261.496257.337276.623384.283430.721416.718Import

103.27266.06565.49960.27241.59231.122Export

200520042003200220012000(Tons)

4. ETHYLENE GLYCOL

Domestic demand of Ethylene Glycol is higher than domestic production.

Source : Ministry of Industry, 2006 edited



Forecast PRODUCTION - LOCAL DEMAND OF ETHYLENE

GLYCOL IN 2006 -2010

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

( T o n s )

Production

Local Demand

-403.361-390.459-377.882-365.629-360.575Balance +/-

612.361599.459585.882573.394566.075Local

Demand

209.000209.000208.000207.765205.500Production

20102009200820072006

Forecast IMPORT - EXPORT OF

POLYETHYLENE IN 2006 -2010

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

( T o n s )

Export

Import

-403.361-390.459-377.882-365.629-360.575Balance +/-

500.244481.005462.504444.715427.611Import

96.88390.54584.62279.08667.036Export

20102009200820072006

Projected demand of Ethylene glycol in 2010 is amounted to 612.361 ton which could not be fulfilled yet domestically.

Domestic production is only 209.000 ton. The rest should be imported.

Lanjutan 4. Ethylene Glycol…..




MAP OF OLEFIN INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA

BANTEN1. Chandra Asri Petrochemical Complexs, PT.(550.000 tpa ethylene dan 243.000 tpa propylene)

2. Tri Polyta Indonesia,PT. (380.000 tpa polypropylene)

3. Petrokimia Nusantara, PT.(250.000 tpa polyethylene)

4. Asahimas Subentra Chemical, PT. (400.000 tpa vinyl chloride monomer dan 285.000 tpa polyvinyl chloride)

5. Salim /BP Chemical (700.000 tpa)**

6. Statomo Indovyl Monomer,PT. (100.000 tpa vinyl chloride monomer dan 70.000 tpa polyvynyl chloride)*7. Standart Toyo Polymer (84.000 tpa polyvinyl chloride)

JAWA TIMUR

1. Trans PasiFic Petrochemical Indotama (TPPI),PT. (700.000 tpa ethylene dan 300.000 tpa polyethylene)**

2. Siam Maspion Polymer,PT. (100.000 tpa polyvnyl chloride) *

SUM. SEL.

1. Pertamina, PN. ( 320.000 tpa propylene dan 45.000 tpa polypropylene)

JAWA BARAT

1. Polytama Propindo, PT. (100.000 tpa polypropylene)

Ket :

* Under construction

** Under preparation

DKI JAKART A1.Eastern Polymer, PT.(50.000 tpa polyvinyl chloride)




Australia

Cepu

3.8 MBSD

Balikpapan

260 MBSD

Musi

135.2 MBSD

Dumai

120 MBSD

Pangkalan Brndan

5 MBSD

Sungai Pakning

50 MBSD

EXOR I, Balongan

125 MBSDCilacap

348 MBSD

Kasim

10 MBSD

Source : Ministry of Industry

Raw Material : Oil Refinery In Indonesia

Total Produksi :

1,057 MBSD



NATURAL GAS REFINERY UNIT IN

INDONESIA

Source : BP Migas



Irian Jaya

ACEH

Malaysia

Australia

Sumatera Utara

Sumatera Selatan

Jawa Barat

Jawa Timur

Jawa Tengah

Kalimantan Timur

Sulawesi Selatan

1.109,35

323,88

72,98

221,6

5.705,08

748,45

1.236,74100,96

Sumatera Tengah

1. Total = 9.826 MMSTB (2002)

2. R / P = 17 Tahun

: Oil reserved (MMSTB)

Oil Reserved

POTENTIAL RAW MATERIAL OF PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY

(CRUDE OIL RESERVE)

Source : BP Migas



POTENTIAL LABOR

• The Government of Indonesia guarantees the availability of skilledlabor on petrochemical industry. It is supported by 6 well-knownuniversities in Indonesia such as University of Indonesia, in

Province of DKI Jakarta, University of Diponegoro in di Province ofCentral Java, University of Gajah Mada in Province of Yogyakarta,Intitute Technology of Bandung in Province of West Java, InstituteTechnology of Surabaya in Province of East Java, University ofSumatera Utara in Province of North Sumatera, etc which isamounted to + 1.000 per year;

• The other university and vocational training centre for petrochemical

industry is also available amounted to 2.000 people per year.

olefin market

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