saqarTvelo-2009

omisSemdgomi gamowvevebi da perspeqtivebi

damoukidebel eqspertTa klubi

Tbilisi, 2010

damoukidebel eqspertTa

klubis Sesaxeb

damoukidebel eqspertTa klubi dafuZnebulia 2008 wlis 15 oqtombers.

klubi aerTianebs politikis, ekonomikis, samarTlis, socialuri sferos, usafrTxoebis, samxedro saqmis, konfliqtologiis, demokratiuli procesebis da qveynisTvis sxva aqtualuri sakiTxebis analizSi sistematurad CarTuli damoukidebeli eqspertebis Zalisxmevas.

klubis ZiriTadi mizania aqtiurad CaerTos saqarTveloSi da mimdinare movlenebis SefasebaTa procesSi, gaxados igi sajaro da masSi Tanamonawileobis SesaZlebloba misces dainteresebul sazogadoebas, Seecados arsebuli inteleqtualuri potencialis (maT Soris saerTaSoriso potencialis) koncentracias, optimaluri gamosavlis ZiebisaTvis qveynis winaSe arsebuli gamowvevebis dasaZlevad. agreTve, am mizniT, dialogis inicireba Sesabamis samTavrobo da saerTaSoriso struqturebTan, sazRvargareTel kolegebTan.

2010 wlis aprilisTvis damoukidebel eqspertTa klubis wevrebi arian:

damoukidebel eqspertTa klubis wesdebis Tanaxmad, politikuri partiis wevri da saxelm-wifo moxele ver gaxdeba klubis wevri.

zurab abaSiZe mamuka areSiZe arCil gegeSiZe merab kakulia kaxa kacitaZe iago kaWkaWiSvili vladimer papava ramaz sayvareliZe irakli sesiaSvili laSa tuRuSi zaza firaliSvili zaqaria qucnaSvili zaza SaTiriSvili Tamar Ciqovani soso ciskariSvili giorgi xuciSvili gia xuxaSvili Tedo jafariZe

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sarCevi

soso ciskariSvili

winasityvaoba. qarTul/rusuli politpaTologia ....................................................................5

zurab abaSiZe

saqarTvelo-ruseTis omi: 18 Tvis Semdeg .............................................................................................8

Tedo jafariZe

gardatexis molodini Tu borblis

gamogonebis sixele? ............................................................................................................................... 13

giorgi xuciSvili

saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis dilema .................................................................................................... 23

irakli sesiaSvili

qarTuli jaris politikuri sworeba ................................................................................................30

mamuka areSiZe

saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvari:

arsebuli mdgomareoba da safrTxeebi ................................................................................................40

vladimer papava

omisSemdgomi saqarTvelos ekonomika:

axali gamowvevebi da Zveli Secdomebi ................................................................................................45

merab kakulia

omisSemdgomi saqarTvelos

makroekonomikuri paradigma ................................................................................................................53

iago kaWkaWiSvili

sazogadoebrivi azris cvlilebebi 2008 wlis omis da

2009 wlis sagazafxulo krizisis Suqze ..............................................................................................60

zaqaria qucnaSvili

qarTuli demokratia 2009 wlis gamowvevaTa prizmaSi ..................................................................72

Tamar Ciqovani

talRebSi dakargulebi ............................................................................................................................80

ramaz sayvareliZe

2009 wlis aprili: omi omis gamo .............................................................................................................84

Salva fiCxaZe

gamoTxovebis weliwads Tqmuli .............................................................................................................90

zaza firaliSvili

liberalizmi demokratiis gareSe.........................................................................................................94

kaxa kacitaZe

miTebis dasasruli ......................................................................................................................................96

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soso ciskariSvilis redaqciiT

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zustad erTi weli gavida mas Semdeg, rac damoukidebel eqspertTa klubma gamoaqveyna Tavisi wevrebis naSromTa pirveli krebuli - “2008 wlis krizisi saqarTveloSi – winapiroba, realoba, perspeqtiva”.

man mosalodnelze meti interesi gamoiwvia qarTul sazogadoebaSi da sazRvargareTel kolegaTa Soris, ramac stimuli mogvca, rom aseTi krebuliT yovel momdevno welsac gvecada Cveni qveynis av-kargis Sefaseba.

imTaviTve, Znelad prognozirebadi ar yofila, rom omisSemdgomi 2009 weli axali sirTuleebis, safrTxeebis da gamowvevebis winaSe daayenebda qarTul saxelmwifos.

rogor ganvlo saqarTvelom 2009 weli, ra daskvnebi gamoitana an ver gamoitana man ruseTTan omis Semdeg, ra Seicvala an ar Seicvala qveynis saSinao da sagareo politikis prioritetebSi, sazogadoebis da xelisuflebis urTierTobaSi, maT mier realobis aRqmasa da perspeqtivis xedvaSi?

swored aseT da sxva msgavs kiTxvebze pasuxebis Ziebis mcdelobaa Tqven samsjavroze gamotanili _ damoukidebel eqspertTa klubis originalur naSromTa winamdebare krebuli “saqarTvelo _ 2009. omisSemdgomi gamowvevebi da perspeqtivebi”.

krebulis Tematikis mravalferovneba gamowveulia mis avtorTa gansxvavebul profesiul interesTa farTo speqtriT. mkiTxvels saSualeba eZleva, gaecnos filosofosis, sociologis, fsiqologis, diplomatis, iuristis, ekonomistis, finansistis, Jurnalistis, konfliqtologis, kavkasiologis, politologis mier danaxul da Sefasebul dRevandel saqarTvelos.

krebulSi Tavmoyril statiaTa umravlesobis avtorTa naazrevi warmoadgens 2008 wlis agvistos omis Sedegad saqarTveloSi, agreTve ruseTTan mis ormxriv urTierTobaSi ganviTarebuli da prognozirebadi procesebis Sefasebas.

Tanaklubeli kolegebis naSromebis gacnobam kidev erTxel damarwmuna, rom mTavari mizezi omisSemdgomi axali safrTxeebisa da upasuxod darCenili axali gamowvevebisa igivea, rac wina wlebSi da am mizezs saxelad hqvia:

qarTul/rusuli politpaTologia rodesac XXI saukuneSi, globalizaciis procesiT Tavmomwone planetaze, ori mezobeli saxelmwifo, ormxriv urTierTobaSi arsebuli konfliqtis gadaWris saSualebad verafers SesTavazebs civilizebul samyaros garda omisa, verc erTi maTgani veRar daitrabaxebs civilizebulobiT an sakuTari sagareo politikis adeqvaturobiT.

iseTi kacTmoZule qmedebebis dagegmvas, ganxorcielebas da gamarTlebas, romelsac ewodeba omi, saxelmwifos “politikas” veRar vuwodebT. droa, gansxvavebuli ganmarteba movuZebnoT borotebisTvis mzaobis aseT daufarav gamovlenas da mis aRsawerad davamkvidroT Sesaferisi termini - “politpaTologia”.

.arsebobs mosazreba (vfiqrob, primitiuli), rom zogierT xelisufalTa piradi problemebis kompleqsi, romlis gadaWra droulad ar moxda, saxelmwifoebriv problemebad transformirda da TandaTan, mdumare msoflios Tvalwin, siZulvilze dafuZnebul politpaTologiad Camoyalibda, maT Soris, qarTul da rusul saxelmwifoTa ormxriv urTierTobebSi.

dRevandeli qarTul/rusuli politpaTologiisTvis damaxasiaTebeli urTierTzizRis gamovlinebebi aRar Tavsdeba Tanamedrove politdiagnostikisTvis xelmisawvdom teqnologiebSi.

samwuxaroa, rom qarTuli xelisuflebis mier sakuTari mosaxleobisTvis SeTavazebuli cxovrebis wesis, iseve rogorc qveynis sagareo politikuri

winasityvaoba

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kursis mTavari orientiri gaxda rusofobia (iseve, rogorc rusuli xelisuflebisTvis - gruzinofobia). kidev ufro samwuxaroa, rom qarTul xelisuflebas aseTi kursis gamyarebisTvis motivacias axal-axali argumentebiT sistematurad uZlierebs rusuli xelisuflebis politpaTologia (rusul xelisuflebas ki qarTveli kolega - politpaTologebi).

davam imis Taobaze, Tu xelisufalTa romeli mxarea iniciatori da romeli - CaTreuli am dapirispirebaSi, ukve iseTive araproduqtiuli xasiaTi miiRo, rogorc qaTmisa da kvercxis gaCenis Tanamimdevrobaze mudmivad mimdinare kamaTma.

qarTuli andaza ambobs “uremi rom gadabrundeba, gza mere gamoCndebao”.politpaTologiuri xelisufleba, romelic urmis gadabrunebis Semdegac ver xedavs qveynis pozitiuri perspeqtivisTvis misaReb gzas, imasRa axerxebs, rom gamarjvebis yiJina dasces – “Cveni uremi xom ufro lamazad gadayiravdao”!

aseTi absoluturad identuri yiJini kidev erTxel, rasakvirvelia erTdroulad, gaisma TbilisSi da moskovSi, rodesac gamoqveynda evrokavSiris mier Seqmnili komisiis daskvna 2008 wlis agvistos omis mizezebis da Sedegebis Sesaxeb. dokumenti, romelic sakmaod kritikulia orive qveynis xelisufalTa moqmedebis SefasebebSi, orive dedaqalaqSi myisierad moinaTla, rogorc “Cveni qveynis diplomatiis didi gamarjveba”.qarTul/rusuli politpaTologiis kidev erTi saerTo safuZvelia orive qveynis dRevandel xelisuflebaTa analogiuri xedva, romlis mixedviT, sakuTari Tavi maT saxelmwifosa da samSoblos sinonimebad miaCniaT, ris gamoc, kritika maTi misamarTiT kvalificirdeba lamis samSoblos mtrebis mier saxelmwifos winaaRmdeg Cadenil danaSaulad. mosaxleobaSi am azris dasamkvidreblad ki xdeba erTi da igive xerxebiT monopolizirebuli erovnuli mediasivrcis gamoyeneba.

aseTi viTareba, cxadia, damatebiT safrTxes uqmnis uamravi adamianis fundamentur uflebebs yvela qveyanaSi, miTumetes iq, sadac xelisufleba dajildovebulia genetikuri niWiT – jer gaisrolos da mere daiwyos damizneba.

saerTaSoriso sazogadoebisTvis didi xania saidumlos aRar warmoadgens is faqti, rom qarTul/rusuli politpaTologiis SemoqmedTaTvis arsebobs erTi saerTo dauZinebeli mteri. es gaxlavT – Wirveuli qalbatoni, saxelad demokratia!

acnobiereben ra demokratiis, rogorc cxovrebis wesis popularobas civilizebul samyaroSi, orive qveynis politpaTologebi mcdelobas ar akleben, rom sakuTari favoriti – “gaTavxedebuli avtoritarizmi”, lamazad SefuTon “modelirebuli demokratiis” samosSi da dempingur fasebSi gaasaRon dasavleTis miamitTa bazarze.

Tu demokratias ganvixilavT, rogorc mTavar safrTxes saqarTvelos da ruseTis dRevandel xelisufalTaTvis da igive demokratias SevafasebT, rogorc SesaZlo winapirobas qarTul/rusuli mravalwliani konfliqtis daregulirebisa, davrwmundebiT, rom am ori qveynis mSvidobiani keTilmezoblobisken mimavali yvelaze sando gza gadis maTi realuri demokratiulobis perspeqtivaze.

Tu SevecdebiT ganvasxvavoT erTmaneTisgan avtoritarizmi – rogorc xelisuflebis droebiTi instrumenti mniSvnelovani saxelmwifoebrivi miznis misaRwevad da avtoritarizmi - rogorc xelisuflebis mudmivi instrumenti sakuTari Zalauflebis SenarCunebisTvis, davrwmundebiT, rom qarTul/rusuli politpaTologia emyareba avtoritarizmis meore tips, romelsac, praqtikulad, araferi aqvs saerTo saxelmwifo interesebis prioritetulobasTan. dReisaTvis ki cxadia, rom orive mxare omis Semdeg erTmaneTTan urTierTobebSi Seqmnil Cixur viTarebas ostaturad iyenebs sakuTari Zalauflebis gansamtkiceblad da Segnebulad zrdis ufskruls mezobel erebs Soris.

aqvs Tu ara totalitarizmisken mzeramipyrobili avtoritarizmidan realuri demokratiisken mardi Semobrunebis potenciali erTmaneTTan naomar da arSerigebul qarTul da rusul xelisuflebas? an iqneb mxolod maTi Secvlis Semdeg aris SesaZlebeli pozitiuri perspeqtivis warmoCena ormxriv urTierTobebSi?

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am kiTxvebze damajerebeli pasuxebis gacema Tavad agvistos omis Tanaavtorebs ukeT xelewifebaT, oRond ara ukve tradiciad damkvidrebuli, urTierTSeuracxmyofeli frazebiT, aramed realuri mzaobiT konkretuli nabijebis gadasadgmelad, rogorc sakuTari, aseve maTi winamorbedebis Secdomebis gamosasworeblad, saerTaSoriso samarTlebriv velSi Rirseulad dasabruneblad.

manamde ki, erTaderTi gansxvaveba ikveTeba zemoTaRweril tyupiscal politpaTologiebs Soris: sakuTari zomisa da potencialis sxvaobidan gamomdinare, qarTuli politpaTologia warmoadgens regionalur safrTxes, rusuli politpaTologia ki planetaruli masStabis safrTxis Semcvelia.

aseTi mniSvnelovani gansxvavebebis safuZvelze warmoqmnili gamowvevebis gauTvaliswinebloba ki, mxolod im mazoxist politpaTologTa maxasiaTebelia, romlebic Tavad aranakleb safrTxes warmoadgenen sakuTari qveynebisaTvis.

samwuxarod, dResve dabejiTebiT SeiZleba imis prognozireba, romqarTul/rusuli politpaTologia kvlav darCeba damoukidebel eqspertTa klubis mier momaval wels gamosacemi analogiuri krebulis erT-erT Temad.

2010 wlis dasawyisi gvarwmunebs, rom isic dagvamaxsovrebs Tavs axali politpaTologiuri argumentebiT da gamowvevebiT (mag. qarTvel “damkvirvebelTa” desanti ukrainul arCevnebze; qarTuli xelisuflebis mier prognozirebuli, Sokismomgvreli satelevizio “meore ruseT-saqarTvelos omi”; yvela donis arCevnebis win virtualur “amomrCevelTa” mudmivi zrda, mkvidri mosaxleobis emigraciis rekorduli maCveneblebis fonze da mravali sxv.). rac Seexeba rusul politpaTologias, vfiqrob, misi 2010 wlis TaviseburebaTa aRweraSi Cven rus kolegebs veravin Seedreba. Cven ki imis imedi davitovoT, rom rusuli politpaTologiis erTi Semadgeneli mainc daiwyebs gankurnebas, ris Sedegadac, ruseTis demokratiuli perspeqtivis gulSematkivar patriotTa xma gascdeba www.grani.ru-s farglebs da ruseTis erovnul satelevizio sivrceSic daimkvidrebs adgils.

igives, sakuTar samSobloSi, vusurvebdi winamdebare krebulis avtor qarTvel kolegebsac.

soso ciskariSvili,damoukidebel eqspertTa klubis

prezidenti

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zurab abaSiZe

saqarTvelo_ruseTis omi: 18 Tvis Semdeg

2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdeg 18 Tve,

anu weliwadnaxevari gavida. es sakmarisi

periodia, raTa emociebi SeZlebisdagvarad

`gverdze gadavdoT,~ CavataroT Taviseburi

inventarizacia da SevecadoT, pasuxi gavceT

kiTxvebs:

_ vin ra waago da ra moigo?

_ rogor SeiZleba ganviTardes movlenebi?

_ ra daskvnebis gamotana SeiZleba am omisgan?

I. agvistos omma saqarTvelos udidesi da

mravalmxrivi ziani miayena. upirveles

yovlisa, omma imsxverpla mravali adamianis

sicocxle. es aunazRaurebeli danakargia.

afxazeTidan iZulebiT gadaadgilebul

pirTa mravalaTasian Semadgenlobas Seemata

cxinvalis regionidan da kodoridan eTnikuri

wmendis Sedegad gamoZevebuli 50 aTasze meti

ltolvili.

teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgena

gaurkveveli da bundovani perspeqtiviT

gadaido; davkargeT kontroli kodoris

xeobaze; mniSvnelovani zarali ganicada

samxedro da, zogadad, qveynis ekonomikurma

infrastruqturam; seriozulad dazaralda

qveynis saerTaSoriso imiji, rac uaryofiTad

moqmedebs ucxour investiciebzec; Senelda an

SeCerda natoSi gawevrianebis procesi.

es, ase vTqvaT, omis xelSesaxebi uaryofiTi

mxareebia. magram vin awona iseTi faqtorebis

damangreveli Sedegebi, rogoricaa

sazogadoebis fsiqologiuri mdgomareoba,

imedebis gacrueba da sxva?

_ saqarTvelosaTvis dadebiT garemoebad

SeiZleba CaiTvalos qveyanaSi, da, kerZod,

konfliqtebis mogvarebis saqmeSi,

evrokavSiris CarTulobis mkveTri zrda.

2008 wlis seqtembridan saqarTveloSi

evrokavSiris monitoringis misiis (EUMM) amoqmedebam saqarTvelo, garkveulwilad,

aqcia evrokavSiris proeqtad. amas Cveni

qveyana wlebis manZilze cdilobda. Tumca, ra

Tqma unda, ara am fasad.

agvistos omma mniSvnelovnad daaCqara

evrokavSiris mier axali farTomasStabiani

iniciativis _ `aRmosavleTis partniorobis~

SemuSaveba.

saqarTvelos (aseve ukrainas, moldovas,

belorusias, azerbaijansa da somxeTs)

es iniciativa evrokavSirTan farTo

TanamSromlobis unikalur Sanss aZlevs.

omma aseve biZgi misca 2009 wlis ianvarSi

saqarTvelosa da aSS-s Soris strategiuli

partniorobis Sesaxeb qartiis gaformebas.

es, albaT, saqarTvelos uaxles istoriaSi

yvelaze mniSvnelovani saerTaSoriso

dokumentia.

omis Semdeg dasavleTis mier

saqarTvelosaTvis gamoyofilma finansurma

daxmarebam (daaxloebiT 3,5 mlrd. dol.)

mniSvnelovnad SegviCera globaluri

ekonomikuri krizisis damangreveli talRa,

rasac saqarTvelos samezoblosa da bevr sxva

qveyanaSic dramatuli Sedegebi mohyva.

faqtia, rom omis Sedegad ruseTma metwilad

miaRwia Tavis miznebs. kerZod, gasul wlebSi

saqarTvelodan Tavisi samxedro bazebis

gayvanis Semdeg kremlma kvlav aRidgina

da gaiZliera kidec samxedro poziciebi

regionSi. moskovis mier soxumisa da cxinvalis

reJimebTan gaformebuli xelSekrulebebis

Sesabamisad ruseTis jari ukve `kanonierad~

dgas aRniSnul regionebSi, yvelaze axlos

Tbilisidan 40 kilometrSi, xolo sasicocxlo

saavtomobilo magistralidan _ sul ramdenime

kilometrSi.

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ruseTis samxedro intervenciam seriozuli

uTanxmoebebi warmoSva natos rigebSi

sapasuxo reaqciasTan dakavSirebiT. esec

kremlis warmatebad SeiZleba CaiTvalos,

radgan aliansisa da evrokavSiris rigebSi

disonansis Setana iyo da aris moskovis

erT-erT strategiuli amocana. moskovma,

garkveulwilad, Searyia saqarTvelos,

rogorc stabiluri qveynis, imijic, rac,

kremlis analitikosebis azriT, mniSvnelovnad

zRudavs saqarTvelos evroatlantikuri

integraciis perspeqtivas da mis energetikul

satranzito funqcias.

marTalia, destruqciuli gziT,

magram ruseTma mainc aRisrula Tavisi

geopolitikuri ocneba: 2008 wlis agvistos

Semdeg kremlis kaprizebs msoflioSi ufro

met angariSs uweven. rogorc Cans, moskovSi

wlebis manZilze tyuilad ar laparakobdnen

mravalpolaruli msoflio wesrigis Seqmnis

aucileblobaze.

agvistos omi iyo mkacri gzavnili urCi

mezoblebisadmi, upirveles yovlisa

ukrainisadmi: WkuiT, Torem Tqvenc igive

geliT!

samxedro aqcia nawilobriv motivirebuli iyo

Sidapolitikuri koniuნqturiT da gamiznuli

iyo adgilobriv momxmareblebze _ ruseTis

sazogadoeba/mosaxleobaze. faqtia, rom

putini-medvedevis tandemis avtoriteti

agvistos omis Semdeg mniSvnelovnad

gaZlierda.

_ yovelive es moskovs sakmaod Zvirad

daujda. omis Sedegad ruseTi, faqtobrivad,

saerTaSoriso izolaciaSi aRmoCnda.

globaluri ambiciebis mqone saxelmwifos

mier afxazeTisa da e.w. samxreT oseTis

damoukideblobis aRiarebas mxolod iseTi

saerTaSoriso prestiJis qveynebma dauWires

mxari, rogoricaa venesuela, nikaragua da

nauru.

samxedro intervenciam da Semdgomma nabijebma

ruseTi msoflios TvalSi warmoaCina

agresiul da revizionistul derJavad,

romelsac angariSs uweven umTavresad imitom,

rom mas aqvs uxeSi Zala da energoresursebi.

ruseTis `rbili Zalis~ mimzidvelobis

koeficienti uaRresad dabalia. aseTi

reputaciiT ruseTis konkurentunarianoba

nanatr mravalpolarul msoflioSi did

eWvebs iwvevs.

omma da saqarTvelos teritoriebis

damoukideblobis aRiarebam damatebiTi

arastabiluroba SesZina iseT mgrZnobiare

regions, rogoricaa Crdilo kavkasia.

TviT am regionis avtonomiuri regionebis

xelmZRvanelebi aRiareben, rom bolo

weliwadnaxevris manZilze Zaladobis

mkveTri zrda 2008 wlis agvistos Sedegicaa.

Tumca am Zaladobas mravali sxva mizezic

aqvs. ruseTis Zalismieri qmedebiT arc

dsT-is qveynebi Canan imdenad daTrgunulni,

rom uxmod daemorCilon moskovis

diqtaqts. dReisaTvis moskovs kvlav rTuli

urTierTobebi aqvs mezobeli qveynebis

umravlesobasTan.

moskovma ver ganaxorciela saqarTvelos

xelisuflebis cvlileba; momavali

satranzito energetikuli proeqtebis

marSrutebSi saqarTvelos mniSvneloba

kvlavac aqtualuria, iseve rogorc

dasavleTis daintereseba Cveni qveynis mimarT.

isic aRsaniSnavia, rom ruseTSi mZime

ekonomikuri krizisis erT-erTi komponenti

rusul-qarTuli omic iyo.

amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis avtoritets agvistos omma seriozuli zarali miayena. gairkva, rom vaSingtons ar Seswevs Zala krizisis periodSi daicvas partniori qveyana da realuri daxmareba aRmouCinos mas agresiis mosagerieblad. yofiT doneze gaCnda imis gancda, rom ruseTma meti unari gamoiCina osebis dasacavad, vidre qarTvelebisa_amerikelebma. aseTi gancdis Seqmnas rusebma maqsimalurad Seuwyves xeli. rad Rirs Tundac foTis portidan amerikeli samxedroebisaTvis gankuTvnili `hamerebis~ rekviziciis faqti, rasac rusuli telearxebi gansakuTrebuli siamovnebiT aCvenebdnen.

10

igive SeiZleba iTqvas Crdiloatlantikur

aliansze, romlis axali wevrebi aRmosavleT

evropidan da baltiis regionidan

seriozulad dafiqrdnen, Tu raoden daculia

maTi usafrTxoeba natos fuZemdebluri

dokumentis _ vaSingtonis xelSekrulebis me-5

punqtis Sesabamisad.

bevrisaTvis moulodnelad, agvistos omis

periodSi da uSualod omis Semdeg evropis

kavSirma gamoiCina misTvis sakmaod uCveulo

operatiuloba da efeqturoba rogorc

politikuri gadawyvetilebis miRebaSi, aseve

maT ganxorcielebaSi. nikola sarkozim,

rogorc evrokavSiris Tavjdomare qveynis

prezidentma, umniSvnelovanesi roli

iTamaSa agvistos dramatul dReebSi, xolo

seqtemberSi evrokavSirma swrafad miiRo

gadawyvetileba uprecedento samSvidobo

operaciis _ evrokavSiris monitoringis misiis

(EUMM) saqarTveloSi gagzavnis Sesaxeb.

amasTanave, friad mwvave diskusiis sagnad iqca

is garemoeba, rom evrokavSirma, iseve rogorc

natom, swrafadve gadalaxes agvistos agresiis

sindromi da sul ramdenime TveSi kvlav

daubrundnen moskovTan TanamSromlobis

Cveul reJims. pesimistebi miiCneven, rom

dasavleTis amgvari mimtevebloba moskovSi

mwvane Suqad aRiqves, rac zrdis momavalSi

analogiuri movlenebis albaTobas.

moskovSi aseve evropis sisusted aRiqvamen

evropis sabWoSi agvistos omTan dakavSirebul

debatebs, romlebmac vera da ver daadgines,

Tu ra zomebis miRebaa saWiro agresoris

mimarT. aseTi viTareba seriozuli kiTxvis

niSnis qveS ayenebs am avtoritetuli

organizaciis prestiJs da momavals.

saqarTvelos momavali bevrad iqneba

damokidebeli imaze, Tu raoden principulad

warmarTaven aSS, nato da evrokavSiri

ruseTTan urTierTobas

da ramdenad mtkiced da ukompromisod

daicaven isini saqarTvelos suverenitetisa

da teritoriuli mTlianobis principebs.

bolo 10 wlis manZilze azerbaijanis

keTildReoba da ekonomikuri urTierToba

mniSvnelovnad iyo dakavSirebuli

saqarTvelos teritoriis gavliT

energoresursebis tranzitze. agvistos omma

seriozulad SeuzRuda baqos moskovTan

mimarTebiT manevrirebis saSualebebi da

aiZula igi, efiqra ufro loialur nabijebze.

azerbaijanisaTvis seriozul dilemad iqca

somxeTsa da TurqeTs Soris urTierTobebis

daregulirebis mcdelobebi, rasac aseve

agvistos omma misca Zlieri impulsi.

es omi mtkivneuli dartyma aRmoCnda

TurqeTisaTvis, radgan, ankaris

gadasaxedidan, moskovis samxedro

poziciebis gaZliereba uTuod gamoiwvevda

regionSi TurqeTis gavlenis Sesustebas.

nawilobriv swored amiT aixsneba agvistos

omis damTavrebisTanave ankaris aqtiuri

kontaqtebi moskovTan da kavkasiisaTvis axali

samSvidobo platformis SemuSaveba, romelSic

TurqeTsa da ruseTs wamyvani rolebi

ganekuTvnebaT.

TurqeTisaTvis garkveulwilad iZulebiTi

nabiji gaxldaT somxeTTan diplomaturi

urTierTobebis aRdgenac, rasac metad

uaryofiTi reaqcia mohyva azerbaijanSi.

omma kvlav Seaxsena somxeTs is garemoeba, rom

gare samyarosTan saqarTvelos satranzito

derefani seriozuli riskis matarebelia.

erevnis Semxvedri nabijebi ankaris

iniciativebze ormxrivi urTierTmogvarebis

TvalsazrisiT swored amis gamoZaxilia.

amgvarad, agvistos `patara~ xuTdRianma omma

marTlac teqtonuri cvlilebebi gamoiwvia.

II. uSualod agvistos omis Semdeg

saqarTveloSi movlenaTa ganviTarebis

ramdenime SesaZlo scenars ganixilavdnen:

_ eqspertTa nawili ar gamoricxavda

saqarTvelos xelisuflebis Zaladobrivi

cvlilebis SesaZleblobasa da TbilisSi

kremlis mier SerCeuli politikuri Zalis

mosvlas, Sedegad saqarTvelos ruseTis

gavlenis sferoSi dabrunebas. magram

saqarTvelos xelisuflebam 18 Tvis manZilze

11

damo

ukid

ebel eqsper

tT

a klu

bi

aSkarad SeZlo mniSvnelovnad Seetrialebina

Tavis sasargeblod Sidapolitikuri

procesebi. amas xeli Seuwyo dasavleTis,

upirveles yovlisa, aSS-is calsaxa

poziciam saqarTvelos damoukideblobisa

da teritoriuli mTlianobis mxardaWeris

kuTxiT.

garda amisa, rac aSkarad angariSgasawevia,

saqarTveloSi ar arsebobs iseTi prorusuli

politikuri Zala, romelic sargeblobs

sazogadoebis mniSvnelovani nawilis

mxardaWeriT.

_ mas Semdeg, rac moskovma soxumisa

da cxinvalis reJimebTan gaaforma

xelSekrulebebi usafrTxoebis sferoSi,

saqarTveloSi gaCnda garkveuli molodini

imisa, rom aSS natosgan damoukideblad

aiRebda pasuxismgeblobas saqarTvelos

usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofaze, gaaformebda

masTan daaxloebiT iseTive SeTanxmebas,

rogoric vaSingtons aqvs, vTqvaT, israelTan

da amgvarad saqarTveloze gavrceldeboda

aSS-is usafrTxoebis qolga.

magram prezident obamas administraciis

gadatvirTvis politika moskovis

mimarT praqtikulad gamoricxavs aseT

SesaZleblobas. naTelia, rom saqarTvelosa

da aSS-s Soris TanamSromloba usafrTxoebis

sferoSi ganviTardeba 2009 wlis ianvarSi

gaformebuli strategiuli partniorobis

Sesaxeb qartiis Sesabamisad, rac, TavisTavad,

urTierTqmedebis mniSvnelovani meqanizmia.

_ rogorc Cans, evropeli partniorebis

erTi nawilisaTvis sakmaod misaRebi

iqneba, Tuki saqarTvelo garkveulwilad

gadaxedavs natoSi gawevrianebisaken

mimarTul Tavis strategiul kurss, aqcents

gaakeTebs `aRmosavleTis partniorobis~

iniciativis farglebSi evrokavSirTan

urTierTobebis gafarToebaze, aseve

regionalur TanamSromlobaze. am politikis

nawilad moiazreben ruseTTan urTierTobis,

upirvelesad ekonomikuri kavSirebis, nabij-

nabij aRdgenasa da paralelurad, dasavleli

partniorebis mxardaWeriT, saerTaSoriso

organizaciebis (upirvelesad evrokavSiris)

rolis gaaqtiurebas afxazeTsa da cxinvalis

regionSi.

aseTi midgoma, evropelTa erTi nawilis

azriT, saSualebas miscemda saqarTvelos,

moego dro, raTa sakuTari resursebi da

partniorebis daxmareba miemarTa qveynis

ekonomikur gaZlierebasa da demokratiis

srulyofaze.

magram saqarTvelos sagareo politikis

primatad rCeba kategoriuli moTxovna, rom

unda moxdes sarkozi_saakaSvili_medvedevis

SeTanxmebis yvela punqtis Sesruleba,

ganxorcieldes afxazeTisa da e.w. samxreT

oseTis deokupacia da maTi damoukideblobis

aRiarebis denonsireba. mxolod aseT

SemTxvevaSi xedavs oficialuri Tbilisi

ruseTTan politikur urTierTobaTa

aRdgenis SesaZleblobas. aRniSnul

pozicias, da arსebiTad Cixur viTarebas,

ganapirobebs ruseTis xelmZRvanelobis xisti

uaryofac, warmarTos dialogi saqarTvelos

xelisuflebasTan.

unda aRiniSnos, rom ukrainaSi mimdinare

saprezidento arCevnebi uTuod seriozul

gavlenas iqoniebs saqarTvelos sagareo

politikaze. is, Tu ra gzas airCevs

saqarTvelos strategiuli mokavSire, metad

mniSvnelovani iqneba ara mxolod Cveni

qveynisaTvis, aramed ruseTisa da mTlianad

evropisaTvis.

3. ra daskvnebi SeiZleba gamovitanoT agvistos

omisagan?

globaluri TvalsazrisiT am omis yvelaze

sayuradRebo Sedegi gaxlavT is, rom

XX saukunis meore naxevridan nabij-

nabij Seqmnilma evropis usafrTxoebis

arqiteqturam uZlieresi, SesaZloa,

momakvdinebeli dartyma ganicada.

samarTlebrivi TvalsazrisiT evropa,

garkveulwilad, daubrunda im epoqas,

rodesac sakuTari surviliT, ama Tu im

mizeziT SeiZleboda `Segekazma cxeni~,

12

gadagelaxa sazRvari da dapatronebodi

mezobeli qveynis teritorias.

prezident medvedevis axali doqtrina _

`xelSekruloba evropuli usafrTxoebis

Sesaxeb~ - msoflioSi bevrma Seafasa swored

rogorc usafrTxoebis Zveli arqiteqturis

dasamarebis mcdeloba da Tanamedrove

ruseTis ambiciebisaTvis misadagebuli

iniciativa.

_ saqarTvelosaTvis mniSvnelovani gakveTili

unda iyos is, rom, ruseTis samxedro agresiis

miuxedavad, axali `civi omi~ ar daiwyo.

rogorc erTma evropelma sarkazmiT aRniSna,

nato da evropa ar aRmoCndnen mzad daewyoT

omi stalinis mSobliuri qalaqis _ goris

ruseTisagan dasacavad.

_ albaT, agvistos omidan SeiZleba

gamovitanoT is daskvnac, rom Cvens regionSi

qveynis strategiuli kursis Secvla da

evroatlantikuri integracia xangrZlivi da

kargad gaazrebuli procesis Sedegi SeiZleba

iyos. am gzaze swrafi naxtomebi metad sarisko

saqmea.

_ faqtia, rom usafrTxoebis yvelaze

srulyofili klubis _ natos wevri qveynebic

ki ar arian srulad daculni gareSe

safrTxeebisagan. aqedan gamomdinare, rigi

evropuli qveynebisa mivida aseT daskvnamde:

mezobelTan, gansakuTrebiT did da saSiS

saxelmwifosTan, saerTo enis gamonaxvas

alternativa ara aqvs.

gavimeoreb, rom miuxedavad saerTaSoriso

Tanamegobrobis umwvavesi reaqciisa im

borotebaze, rac saqarTveloSi ruseTma

moimoqmeda, dasavleTi da ruseTi sabolood

mainc gamonaxaven saerTo enas. es procesi ukve

aSkarad mimdinareobs.

amitom saqarTvelo ar unda aRmoCndes iseT

mdgomareobaSi, rom mxolod mas mouwios

ruseTTan `civi omis~ warmoeba. samkvdro-

sasicocxlo brZola ruseTTan Cven aRar unda

davuSvaT. patara qveynis valia, maqsimalurad

airidos damangrevel dapirispirebebSi

CarTva, gamonaxos saerTo ena oponentebTan.

gansjis sagani SeiZleba iyos yvelaferi, garda

Tavisuflebisa da teritoriuli mTlianobisa.

qarTveli filosofosi merab mamardaSvili

ruseTs uzarmazar lods adarebda, romelic

saqarTvelos Tavze hkidia. saqarTvelom

yvelaferi unda gaakeTos, rom lodma ar

daitanos _ ambobda igi.

_ kidev erTi daskvna: Cven jer kidev afxazeTis

omma dagvanaxa is mware realoba, rom omiT

dakarguli teritoriebis mSvidobiani gziT

dabrunebas rTuli da xangrZlivi gzis gavla

sWirdeba. sxva gza ar arsebobs! amitomac

gvirCeven Cveni amerikeli partniorebi

“strategiul moTminebas”.

_ saerTo jamSi dasavleTis strategiul

xedvaze, solidarobasa da gambedaobazea

damokidebuli, SeZlebs Tu ara ruseTi

gavlenis sferoebis aRdgenasa da

mezoblebisaTvis Tavisi nebis karnaxs.

_ amasTanave dRevandel msoflioSi patara

qveynis yvelaze efeqturi Tavdacvis iaraRi

da meqanizmi misi demokratiulobis xarisxia.

vaclav havelma am fenomens `Zala uZaloTa~

uwoda. demokratia da xalxis keTildReobaa

swored is Zala, rac aZlevs mcire qveyanas

moralur upiratesobas. aseTi qveynis

daCagvra XXI saukuneSi metad rTulia. amitom

teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenasTan

saqarTvelos demokratiisa da ekonomikuri

ganviTarebis gza miiyvans.

magram aranakleb mniSvnelovania politikuri

stabiluroba. demokratiuli cvlilebebi

qveyanaSi stabilurobis SenarCunebiT

unda moxdes. morigi revolucia

saxelmwifoebriobis dakargviT dasruldeba.

dRevandeli arCevani evropuli yaidis qveynis

mSeneblobisaTvis aseTia: demokratiiuli

cvlilebebi, mdgradi ekonomikuri

ganviTareba da realisturi sagareo politika.

13

damo

ukid

ebel eqsper

tT

a klu

bi

omis Semdgomi saqarTvelo: transformirebis morigi etapi Tu am procesis krizisi?

Tavidanve minda mogaxsenoT Cemi bunebrivad negatiuri damokidebulebis Sesaxeb agvistos omisa da misi Sedegebis mimarT. am SemTxvevaSi minda gagiziaroT mxolod piradi mosazrebebi imasTan dakavSirebiT, Tu rogor imoqmeda am movlenam saqarTvelos evropul da evro-atlantikur struqturebSi integraciis perspeqtivebze. enTuziazmi, romelic wlebis manZilze Tansdevda am ideas (dawyebuli jer kidev gasuli saukunis 90 –ani wlebidan), dReisaTvis TiTqos Senelda da damZimda. wlebis manZilze dasaxuli gegmebis ganxorcielebis SesaZlebloba da maTi realizaciis gzebi gaurkveveli rCeba. Cemda gasaocrad, am Temaze Cvens sazogadoebaSi msjelobasac ki TiTqos tabu daedo da mis garSemo diskursi an saerTod Sewyda, an uaRresad marginalizirebulia. qveyanaSi aRiniSneba anti - dasavluri da anti - amerikuli ganwyobebis mateba da aseve evropuli, Tu evro-atlantikuri struqturebisadmi ndobis vardna. Cvenda sabednierod, am ganwyobebs ar gamouwvevia sapirispiro politikuri Sexedulebebis Tu simpatiebis zrda. mTlianobaSi, qarTuli sazogadoebis sakmaod did nawilSi politikurma apaTiam da nihilizmma daimkvidra adgili, Tumca saxelisuflebo wreebSi gamefebuli gaumarTlebeli da xSir SemTxvevaSi egzaltirebuli enTuziazmic aSkarad ar Seesabameba arsebul sinamdviles. am paradoqsuli situaciis gamomwvevi mizezi, ra Tqma unda, agvistos omsa da Semdeg ganiviTarebuli regresiis procesebSi da, amasTan, TandarTul msoflio ekonomikur krizisSi unda veZeboT.

am cota xnis win, Cems ucxoel kolegas,

romelsac natoSi maRali posti ekava, vesaubre saqarTvelos evropul da evro-atlantikur perspeqtivebze. sakmaod saintereso “breinstormingis” Sedegad SevTanxmdiT, rom Cveni qveynisTvis am rTul gzaze mTavari swori sagareo politikuri kursi, usafrTxoebis sruli garantiis miRweva (ruseTTan dialogis aRdgena da amave dros, qveynis interesebis sruli dacva) da bolos, Sidapolitikuri viTarebis stabilizaciaa. “saqarTvelo unda gaxdes stabiluri da usafrTxo demokratiis qveyana. swored amaze iqneba damokidebuli Tqvendami dasavleTis da, konkretulad, natosa da evrokavSiris interesis SenarCuneba. samxedro komponentis ganviTareba da saTanado standartebTan miaxloveba aucilebelia, magram, merwmuneT, rom mxolod am segmentze fokusireba sapirispiro Sedegs mogitanT integraciis am urTuless gzaze. cxadia, rom iseve rogorc buqarestis samitis cnobili gadawyvetileba ar iyo “mapze” ufro mniSvnelovani”, rogorc amas Tqveni politikosebi ambobdnen, arc SemoTavazebuli “aRmosavluri partniorobis” iniciativaa saqarTvelos evrikavSirSi wevrobis myari garantia uaxloes momavalSi. Tumca, aucilebelia, rom orive dokumenti saqarTvelosaTvis erTgvar sagzao rukad iqces integraciis am rTul gzaze da, rac mTavaria, qveynis SigniT gardaqmnebis mastimulirebel faqtorad iqces.”Znelia ar daeTanxmo am mosazrebas! mravalma qveyanam - poloneTma, CexeTma, rumineTma, bulgareTma, balkaneTis da baltiis regionebis saxelmwifoebma - garkveuli warmatebiT gaiara es urTulesi gza. bevrjer aRniSnula qarTveli da ucxoeli eqspertebis mier, rom saqarTvelos evropul Tu evro-atlantikur struqturebSi gawevrianebis perspeqtivebi mniSvnelovnad aris damokidebuli imaze, Tu ramdenad mdgradi iqneba Cvens qveyanaSi sistemuri reformebis da instituciuri demokratiis

gardatexis molodini Tu borblis gamogonebis sixele?(saqarTvelos evropuli da evro-atlantikuri momavali)

Tedo jafariZe

14

done da rogori warmatebiT ganxorcieldeba xelisuflebis mier am bolo periodSi kidev erTxel deklarirebuli socialuri, ekonomikuri da demokratiuli reformebis exla ukve e.w. “demokratiuli revoluciis mesame talRa”. swored am sakiTxebs gulisxmobda qalbatoni hilari qlinTonis miniSnebebi, saqarTvelos prezidentTan misi pirveli Sexvedrisas niu-iorkSi. imedia, Cveni qveynis politikur elitas (rogorc mmarTvel partias, aseve opoziciur partiebs) kargad esmis, rom amerikis SeerTebuli Statebisa da dasavleTis mxardaWera mTlianad iqneba damokidebuli Cvens qveyanaSi demokratiis, kanonierebis da reformebis sakiTxebisadmi seriozul da Rrma midgomaze. swored amgvari reformebisTvis mzadyofna kidev erTxel (da es xom “vardebis revoluciis” Tavisebur politikur ritualad gadaiqca!) daadastura saqarTvelos prezidentma gaeros maRali tribunidan. Cven isRa dagvrCenia gvjerodes, rom es mzadyofna uaxloes momavalSi ganxorcieldeba da dapirebad ar darCeba. Tumca, kargi iqneboda, rom Cveni sazogadoebisaTvis aexsnaT, Tu ra konkretuli SedegebiT dasrulda wina ori “reformatoruli azvirTeba” an is mainc, Tu ratom gaxda “mesame talRis” reformebis Catarebis aucilebloba, rodesac am wlebis ganmavlobaSi samTavrobo struqturebidan da masmediis saSualebebidan dausruleblad iyo saubari warmatebuli gardaqmnebis Sesaxeb. imedi viqonioT, rom momaval reformebTan naklebi Sexeba eqnebaT sulxan-sabas “Tavtafianebs”, romelTa arsebobis Sesaxeb dRevandel qarTul politikaSi Segvaxsena erTma cnobilma Tbiliselma Jurnalistma...aSkaraa, rom amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis axali administraciisTvis da piradad prezident obamasTvis demokratiuli principebisadmi erTguleba prioritetul mimarTulebas warmoadgens da ar Semoifargleba mxolod delikaturi miniSnebebiT (rasac wina administracia daxurul karsmiRma da yovelTvis Sexvedrebis bolos xSirad akeTebda). amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis prezidentma gaeros generaluri asambleis plenarul sxdomaze gamosvlisas, es gzavnilebi ise mkafiod Camoayaliba, rom, imedia, veravin Seecdeba maT arasworad interpretirebas.agvistos omisSemdgom saqarTvelosTvis - sruliad axal strategiul realobaSi - demokratiis principebis gasaZliereblad, pirveli rigis amocanaa qveynis politikuri Zalebis konsolidireba. mmarTvel wreebsa da

opozicias Soris konstruqciuli diskursis aRdgena am procesis ZiriTadi RerZi unda gaxdes. samwuxarod, dReisaTvis urTierTobis es formati Cvens sazogadoebaSi saerTod ar arsebobs, an mxolod formalur xasiaTs atarebs. aqve unda aRiniSnos TviT opoziciur ZalTa Soris realuri konsolidaciis aucileblobac. konceptualuri gansxvavebebis miuxedavad, gadamwyvetia erTiani strategiisa da prioritetebis Camoyalibeba. imedia, rom dRevandeli xelisuflebisaTvis (iseve, rogorc saerTod saqarTvelos momavali liderebisaTvis), Zlieri da sistemis SigniT momuSave opoziciis arsebobas ar eqneba mxolod imitaciis forma.

Cveni qveynis gaZlierebis procesi didad iqneba damokidebuli imaze, Tu ramdenad dabalansebuli iqneba urTierToba saxelisuflebo Stoebs Soris da ramdenad iqneba daculi kanonis uzenaesoba. am SemTxvevaSi, calke minda gamovyo xelisuflebis e.w. “meoTxe Sto” – realurad moqmedi, Zlieri, Tavisufali masmedia da aseve, samoqalaqo sazogadoeba. liberaluri demokratiisTvis damaxasiaTebeli sxva, mravali komponenti – aqtiuri arasamTavrobo seqtori, saxelmwifos swori politika kerZo sakuTrebis mimarT, romlis gareSe zedmetia laparaki qveyanaSi demokratiis arsebobis Sesaxeb, sayovelTaod aRiarebuli “Tavisuflebebis” praqtikuli realizeba – yovelive es, uaRresad mniSvnelovania Cveni qveynis WeSmaritad demokratiul saxelmwifod CamoyalibebisTvis.

xelisuflebis mier SemoTavazebulma demokratiis “mesame talRam”, avtorTa varaudiT, unda gaamyaros qarTuli saxelmwifos mdgradobis koeficienti, gaaZlieros misi SesaZleblobebi, raTa saTanadod Sefasdes da operatiulad gadaiWras gare Tu qveynis SigniT arsebuli gamowvevebi. am urTules procesSi, mTeli politikuri speqtris da mTlianad sazogadoebis CarTuloba iqneba warmatebis garantia. saqarTvelo Cveni samSobloa da mis ganviTarebaze pasuximgebloba xelisuflebasTan da opoziciasTan erTad, yovel moqalaqes evaleba. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, Cveni sazogadoeba kvlav darCeba, warsuli gamocdilebis mixedviT, “cifruli garRvevis”, Tu “meoTxe”, “mexuTe” da a.S. “talRebis” imedad. amgvarad, xelisufelebis

15

damo

ukid

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bi

mier deklarirebulma cvlilebebma realuri muxti unda Sematos reformebis procesebs, rac qveynis Sida stabilurobis da usafrTxoebis garantiebs sagrZnoblad gazrdis.

cxadia, saqarTvelo jer ar aris e.w. “golfis geostrategiis” Semadgenili nawili. am koncefciis avtorTa mixedviT, qveyanaSi golfis saTamaSo moednebis da “maqdonaldzis” qselebis raodenoba gansazRvravs saSualo klasis, sabazro ekonomikis arsebobas da, Sesabamisad, mdgrad demokratias. samwuxarod, Cven jer verc “maqdonaldzebis” raodenobiT da verc golfis saTamaSo moednebiT davikvexniT. Cveni saxelmwifo moxeleebis aqtiuroba am mimarTulebiT, misasalmebeli (vgulisxmob Sadrevnebis, saTamaSo moednebisa da gasarTobi centrebis siuxves), magram arasakmarisia demokratiis da sabazro ekonomikis mdgradobisaTvis.minda gavixseno trivialuri WeSmariteba – yvelafers, rasac adamiani qmnis, dro da moTmineba esaWiroeba. es demokratiuli saxelmwifos mSeneblobasa da sazogadoebis mentalobis Secvlasac exeba. SeuZlebelia, siaxlis danergva warsulis miRwevebis koleqtiuri Tu instituciuri mexsierebis ignorirebis fonze mimdinareobdes. samwuxarod, am istoriul etapze ”mokle” mexsiereba aRmogvaCnda. Tu ar vcdebi, CerCils aqvs naTqvami, ”Rrmad Caixede warsulSi, rom ukeT ganWvrito momavali”.

“borblis gamogonebis sixele” qarTul realobaSi, konkretulad ki qarTul politikaSi, sasurvel Sedegebamde ver migviyvans. saxelmwifos transformaciis nebismieri faza rTuli da xSirad mtkivneulia, gansakuTrebiT ki omgadaxdili da damarcxebuli qveynisTvis, romelic progresis (Tundac virtualuris) molodinSi imyofeboda wlebis manZilze.

saxelmwifo aRmSenebloba Tu demokratia? orive erTdroulad!

agvistos omma saqarTveloSi arsebuli uamravi problema gaamwvava, maT Soris saxelmwifos demokratiul aRmSeneblobasTan dakavSirebuli dilemac: ra unda iyos prioriteti - Zlieri saxelmwifos

Camoyalibeba Tu demokratiuli institutebisa da Cvevebis gamyareba. liberaluri demokratiuli saxelmwifos Seqmnis urTules procesSi - misi mimdinareobis polifoniasa Tu ”kakafoniaSi”, unikaluria lideris roli. am problemebis daZleva SeuZlebelia mxolod erTma, Tundac niWierma, ganaTlebulma politikurma liderma an misma gundma moaxerxos. am procesSi monawileoba mTeli politikuri speqtris valia, arsebuli administraculi, Tu inteleqtualuri resursis maqsimaluri gamoyenebiT. qveynis demokratiulad arCeulma liderma unda SesZlos saxelmwifo struqturebis amoqmedeba, kanonierebis damkvidreba, reformebis gatareba. am urTules procesSi uaRresad mniSvnelovania demokratiis principebisadmi erTguleba, zogjer piradi politikuri ambiciebis da interesebis daTmobis fasadac.

Cemi azriT, Tundac warmatebul reformaTa raodenoba an maTTan dakavSirebuli sxvadasxva saerTaSoriso reitingi realurad ar gansazRvravs qveyanaSi WeSmariti liberaluri demokratiis arsebobas. qveyana SeiZleba iyos ”reformatoruli”, magram - arademokratiuli, araliberaluri. saqarTvelos evropul da evro-atlantikur struqturebSi integracia, natos standartebTan da evrokavSiris kriteriumebTan erTad, Cvens qveyanaSi demokratiis xarisxze iqneba damokidebuli. aseTia am ”TamaSis” wesebi.

agvistos omis Semdgomi periodi, saqarTvelosaTvis demokratiisa da saxelmwifos mSeneblobaSi gardatexis momentia. am etapze uaRresad mniSvnelovania, rom orive procesi erTdroulad da paralelur reJimSi viTardebodes. kategoriulad ar viziareb mosazrebas, Tavdapirvelad saxelmwifos da Semdeg demokratiuli institutebis gaZlierebaze, ramac araerTxel gaiJRera “vardebis revoluciis” Semdeg. sasurvelia gvaxsovdes, rogorc es erTma brZenma politikosma brZana, rom ”demokratia ar aris srulyofili marTvis modeli, magram kacobriobam amaze ukeTesi jer veraferi moigona”.

zemoT aRniSnul dilemasTan dakavSirebiT, kvlav ZalaSia jer kidev hobsis mier SemoTavazebuli demokratiuli saxelmwifos ganviTarebis erT-erTi formula, romlis

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mixedviTac nebismieri qveynis saSinao politika gansazRvravs rogorc mis sagareo-politikur kurss, aseve realizebis SesaZleblobasac. Tu aqve klauzevicsac davesesxebiT, gantoleba, romelic abalansebs saSinao da sagareo politikis parametrebs, winaswar da detalurad unda iqnes Camoyalibebuli. aqedan gamomdinare, aucilebelia “strategiuli wonasworobis zusti centris” gansazRvra. vfiqrob, rom Tanamedrove saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi aseTi “wonasworobis centris” Zieba (es problema Cvens winaprebs saukeneebis ganmavlobaSi SeZlebisdagvarad warmatebiT qondaT gadawyvetili), jer kidev 1990 wlebSi, damoukideblobis mopovebis Semdeg daiwyo. rogorc Cans, procesi kvlav formirebis stadiaSia da jer kidev daxvewasa da srulyofas moiTxovs. es mxolod dRevandeli xelisuflebis susti wertili ar aris, magram agvistos omma da misma Sedegebma situacia gaamZafra. sasurveli balansi saSinao da sagareo politikaSi kvlavac ar Sedga da qveyana iZulebuli gaxda aqcenti, konkretuli warmatebebis fonze, piarinstrumentebze gadaetana, ramac qveynis SigniT arsebuli problemebi ufro daamZima. am pirobebSi, xelisufleba daopozicia valdebulni arian sazogadoebas SeTavazon arsebuli problemebis gadaWris gzebi da ar Semoifarglon mxolod kritikiT.

unda iTqvas, rom am mxriv dRevandelma xelisuflebam, ZviradRirebuli ucxouri lobistebis daxmarebiT, sakmaod warmatebiT gaarTva Tavi sakuTari virtualuri narativis Seqmnas saqarTveloSi jer “vardebis revoluciamde” da mere ki 2003 wlis Semdgom ganviTarebul movlenebTan dakavSirebiT. es narativi jer lamazad SeifuTa da Semdeg ki Wrel da xmaurian saerTaSoriso politikur bazroba/auqcionze misi “sarfianad gayidvac” moxda. am piarwarmatebas xeli Seuwyo im garemoebamac, rom im droisaTvis amgvari narativis mimarT didi koniunqturuli moTxovna iyo saerTod dasavleTSi da gansakuTrebiT aSS-i. am “storis” umaRlesi donis mxardaWera hqonda pirvel rigSi vaSingtonSi, sadac prezident buSis administracias Sida da gare frontebze warumarteblobebis fonze da popularobis gasamyareblad, koniunqturidan gamomdinare, sakuTari success story Wirdeboda. amgvarad saqarTvelo aRiarebuli iyo “demokratiis da Tavisuflebis Suqurad”, Tumca es perspeqtivaze da samomavlo mdgrad demokratiul ganviTarebaze agebuli metafora ufro iyo.

samwuxarod, Cveni qveynisadmi es simpatia ar gadaqceula dasavleTisaTvis strategiis Semadgenel nawilad da es garemoeba agvistos omTan dakavSirebulma reaqciebmac daadastura. jer Tavad prezidenti buSi moerida ruseTTan amerikis pirdapir konfrontaciaSi CarTvas, rac, principSi, mosalodneli iyo, vinaidan Teoriuladac gamoricxulia, rom aSS-s nebsimieri mTavroba saqarTvelos gamo odesme oms daiwyebs ruseTTan. es bevrjer momismenia vaSingtonSi da evropis dedaqalaqebSi. mxolod erT rames davamatebdi: politikurad ukiduresad miamituri SeiZleboda yofiliyo, Tuki aseTi molodini arsebobda Cvens samTavrobo struqturebSi. sabolood - da isev amerikelebis TxovniT – saqmeSi evrokavSiri da piradad prezidenti sarkozi CaerTo da saomari moqmedebebis eskalireba ruseTis mxridan TiTqos ganimuxta, Tumca es mxolod dakarguli teritoriebis xarjze moxda. rac Seexeba maTi dabrunebis perspeqtivebs, amis SesaZleobloba dReisaTvis Zalian bundovania. mokled imis Tqma minda, rom am momentisaTvis arsebulma narativma, samwuxarod, ver imuSava saTanadod. mxolod “simpatiebis” doneze ki Cveni problemebis gadawyveta ver moxerxda.

narativebs saqarTvelos wina xelisuflebac qmnida, Tumca im “ambavSi” saqarTvelos SeZlebisdagvarad maqsimalurad pozitiuri roli unda eTamaSa ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris urTierTobebSi da “qarTuli Tema” ar unda gamxdariyo ganxeTqilebis an dapiripirebis sagani. iTvleboda, rom dasavleTsa da ruseTs Soris konstruqciuli urTierTobebis arseboba saqarTvelosTvis metad momgebiani iqneboda. dRes es narativi absoluturad sxva paradigmebzea agebuli da masSi, rogorc es zemoT avRniSneT, ruseTTan urTierTobebis negatiuri eskalacia dominirebs. es faqtori, eqspertebis azriT, sakmaod arTulebs Cveni dasavleli partniorebis SesaZleblobas, konstruqciuli dialogi awarmoon ruseTTan saqarTvelos problemebTan dakavSirebiT. faqtia, rom mxolod narativebis imedad da realobis adekvaturad aRqmis gareSe, qveynis mdgradi ganviTareba SeuZlebelia. agvistos omis Sedegebi amis naTeli ilustraciaa. dRes, ratomRac dadebiTad da “qarTuli diplomatiis miRwevad” aRiqmeba is faqti, rom moskovSi gamarTuli bolo samitis dros prezident obamasa da prezident medvedevs Soris SeuTanxmeblobis erTerT sakiTxad iqca saqarTveloSi ganviTarebuli

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damo

ukid

ebel eqsper

tT

a klu

bi

movlenebi. vfiqrob, Cveni qveynisTvis bevrad momgebiani iqneboda am sakiTxis irgvliv erToblivi SeTanxmebis miRweva, Tumca es ukve politikuri gemovnebis sagania.

mudmivad aRmarTSi mimavali, demokratiuli qveynis aRmSeneblobis gza da misi dRevandeli, urTulesi monakveTi qveyanaSi umniSvnelovanesi cvlilebebis, kompromisebis Ziebis da politikuri memkvidreobiTobis SenarCunebis dausrulebeli procesia. demokratia xom mudmivad ganaxlebadi, institucionaluri sistemis da kanonierebis safuZvelze damyarebuli konstruqciaa. miRweuli warmatebebi, magaliTad, saerTaSoriso Tanamegobrobis mier aRiarebuli, “demokratiulad Catarebuli arCevnebi”, am procesis mxolod dasawyisia. aRsaniSnavia, rom bevr arademokratiul da araliberalur qveyanaSi arCevnebi samagaliTod Catarebula da saerTaSoriso Tanamegobrobis dadebiTi Sefasebac daumsaxurebia. arCevnebis Sedegebi realurad unda igrZnos TiToeulma moqalaqem da ara mxolod kabinetSi moklaTebulma Cinovnikma an romelime “gundma”. arsebobs SemTxvevebi, rodesac saxelmwifo imarTeba araliberaluri meTodebiT da qveynis ZiriTadi resursi mimarTulia erTi klanis interesebis sasargeblod. marTvis amgvar models erTerTma eqspertma ironiulad “demokratura“ uwoda.

realuri demokratiuli sistema iTvaliswinebs udides urTierTpasuxismgeblobas saxelmwifos mmarTvel gundsa da mis moqalaqeebs Soris. imedia, saqarTvelo Sedgeba, rogorc “usafrTxo demokratiis” qveyana, romelsac konstitucia da misi kanonebi gansazRvraven. am SemTxvevaSi, magaliTad, Zalovani struqturebis moqmedebis parametrebi mkacrad iqneba reglamentirebuli konstituciiT da aravis eqneba ufleba, pirovnuli gemovnebis Tu interesis mixedviT imoqmedos an Tundac gamoiyenos es mZlavri resursi. mxolod am SemTxvevaSi SesZlebs saqarTvelo Tavi gaarTvas mis winaSe mdgar siZneleebs da problemebs. Tumca es mxolod erTi magaliTia, qveyanaSi gasatrebeli reformebis sia ki sakmaod didia.

zemoT aRniSnuli problemebis droulad gadaWra SedarebiT gaamartivebda saqarTvelos evropul da evro-atlantikur

integracias. es gza mravalma qveyanam warmatebiT gaiara da upriani iqneboda maTi gamocdilebis srulfasovnad Seswavla, sakuTari warmatebebisa da daSvebuli Secdomebis gaanalizeba, raTa mudmivad ar gvqondes borblis gamogonebis esoden dauokebeli sixele. nu dagvaviwydeba, rom natos da evrokavSiris karze “mikakuneba” 2003 wlamde daiwyo (es, sxvaTaSoris, arc 1992 wels ar dawyebula!), iseve, rogorc bevri sxva aucilebeli cvlileba, damoukidebeli da demokratiuli saqarTvelos saxelmwifoebriobis aRdgenis gzaze.

es rTuli, turbulenturi procesi dResac didi kataklizmebiTaa damuxtuli. mdgomareobas arTulebs jer kidev arsebuli umZimesi sabWouri memkvidreoba, rogorc institucionalur aseve, gansakuTrebiT mentalur doneze. am xangrZlivi procesis Sedegebs mxolod momavali Taobebi SeigrZnoben, maTi sworad warmarTvis SemTxvevaSi. aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTvelos damoukideblobis dRidan, Cveni sazogadoeba (miuxedavad xelisufalTa mravali Secdomisa Tu warmatebisa) erTguli rCeba qveynis ZiriTadi strategiuli, dasavluri orientirisa da demokratiuli faseulobebis mimarT.

qarTuli carcis wre?

ra Sedegi moutana saqarTvelos 2008 wlis omma? am Temaze bevri mifiqria da mraval politikosTan da eqspertTan misaubria. mogexsenebaT, amave sakiTxs, dRes mniSvnelovani dokumentebi, debatebi da konferenciebi ixilaven. Segnebulad detalurad ar vexebi Cveni qveynis ruseTTan urTierTobebis umwvaves peripetiebs. es calke publikaciis Temaa. mxolod saqarTvelos winaSe mdgari Sida problemebis ganxilviT Semovifarglebi. am mxriv ki gansakuTrebiT sainteresoa “saerTaSoriso kuluarebSi” gamoTqmuli “piradi azris” mosmenac – mogexsenebaT, rom bevri delikaturi da mwvave sakiTxis sajarod gamotanas politikosTa da eqspertTa umravlesoba erideba.

maTi azriT, mTavari problema mdgomareobs imaSi, rom saqarTvelom SeZlos obieqturad da kritikulad Seafasos bolo dros momxdari movlenebi da gamoitanos saTanado daskvnebi. pirvel rigSi, unda davasruloT,

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principSi uazro debatebi imis Taobaze Tu vin vis daugo xafangi, vin gaisrola pirvelma da a.S. samwuxarod, miRebul sabediswero gadawyvetilebebs aravin Secvlis uaxloes momavalSi. dRes mTavaria, aqcentebi gakeTdes saqarTvelos momavalze, mis demokratiul da mdgrad ekonomikur ganviTarebaze. Cveni qveyana mimzidveli unda gaxdes rogorc sakuTari mosaxleobisTvis, aseve gare samyarosTvis. omis Semswavlel, e.w. “taliavinis dokumentSi” mkafiod aris Camoyalibebuli es principebi da saWiroa misi seriozuli da Rrma Seswavla. paradoqsulad meCveneba omis monawile mxareebis kmayofileba dokumentSi mocemul daskvnebTan dakavSirebiT. sasurvelia dasruldes emociuri diskusiebi da “taliavinis dokumentSi” Camoyalibebuli rekomendaciebi, sxva strategiuli xasiaTis koncefciebTan erTad, saqarTvelos samuSao gegmad iqces.

omisSemdgomi krizisuli situaciidan gamosavali, pirvel rigSi qveynis SigniT arsebuli (demokratiuli reformebi, politikuri Zalebis balansi da konsolidireba, Tavisufali masmedia da a.S.) problemebis mogvarebaSia. paralelur reJimSi mimdinare diplomatiuri brZola qveynis gamTlianebisTvis mxolod misasalmebelia. es sakiTxi mudmivad unda iyos mimdinare saerTaSoriso politikuri diskursis Tu ganxilvis sagani. saqarTvelo ver Seicvlis mezoblebs da verasdros Secvlis geografias. am faqtoris gaTvaliswinebis gareSe, qveyana mudmivad iqneba safrTxis molodinSi, rac, bunebrivia, xels ver Seuwyobs mis ganviTarebas. pirveli rigis amocanaa arsebuli realobis adeqvaturad Sefaseba, simarTlisTvis Tvalis gasworeba da saTanado daskvnebis gamotana.

saqarTvelo damoukideblobis pirveli wlebidanve sargeblobda dasavleTis qveynebis mxardaWeriT. miuxedavad imisa, rom zemoT aRniSnuli simpatiebi dResac ar gamqrala, ar unda agverios erTmaneTSi “simpatiebi” da is reluri adgili da wona, romlebic saqarTvelos gaaCnia dRevandel msoflio politikaSi, rac agvistos omma daadastura kidevac. am mxriv, sainteresoa im politikosTa da eqspertTa azri, romlebic kargad icnoben Cvens realobas da iSviaTad RalatobT situaciis adeqvaturad aRqmis unari. maTi azriT, e.w. “gayinuli konfliqtebis” mogvarebis cdaSi, realurad

“cxeli omi” miviReT, romelmac lokalur problemebTan erTad, mniSvnelovnad Secvala regionSi arsebuli strategiuli balansi. aqedan gamomdinare, “saqarTvelos sakiTxis” mudmivi turbulentur reJimSi yofnis gamo, saerTaSoriso TanamegobrobaSi erTgvari gadaRla da skepticizmic SeiniSneba.dawyebuli gasuli saukunis 90-ini wlebidan dRemde, Cveni politikosebis Zalisxmeva, saqarTvelos dasavleTisTvis saWiro funqcia SeeZina da gamxdariyo damoukidebeli strategiuli mniSvnelobis mqone qveyana, agvistos omis Sedegad CamoiSala. samwuxarod, am etapze Cveni qveyana kvlav ruseTis problemis konteqstSi ganixileba da aRmoCnda im strategiul CixSi, romlis Tavidan acilebas wlebis manZilze cdilobda qarTuli diplomatia da mTlianad saxelmwifo. dasavleTis garkveul wreebSi saqarTvelos ganixilaven, rogorc “iracionalur moTamaSes”, ramac garkveuli doziT Seamcira Cveni qveynis mxardaWera, jer kidev arsebuli “simpatiis” fonze.

dRes saqarTvelo im kritikul zRvars miuaxlovda, sadac mis saxelmwifoebriobasac ki emuqreba safrTxe - “farTe Savi zRvis arealSi” ZalTa Tanafardoba radikalurad Secvlilia. warmoiqmna “realpolitikis” regionaluri, xisti versia, romelSic ruseTi dominirebs da sadac aSS-s da evrokavSirs naklebi an mxolod konkretuli (mag. kaspiis energomatareblebis transportireba) interesi gaaCnia. Cemi azriT, aucilebelia am axali starateguli paradigmis da masTan dakavSirebuli realobis Rrma Seswavla da swori daskvnebis gamotana. am pirobebSi aucilebelia damabalansebeli wertilis povna da saqarTvelos interesebisTvis Sesabamisi strategiuli kursis warmoeba, rac mxolod sagareo politikuri veqtoriT an Tundac warmatebili saSinao reformiT ar ganisazRvreba.

globalizebul samyaroSi mxolod “qarTuli sakiTxiT” Semofargvla ar aris sakmarisi. mezobeli qveynebis interesebi da msoflio politikuri tendenciebi aucileblad unda iqnes gaTvaliswinebuli, Tumca amaSic sifrTxile gvmarTebs. “qaosis TeoriiT”, msoflioSi mimdinare yvela movlena erTmaneTTan aris dakavSirebuli da nebismieri “ryeva” an amovardna mimdinare procesebidan arRvevs arsebul balanss da gansakuTrebiT mtkivneulad aisaxeba iseT

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strategiulad myife regionebze, rogoric, magaliTad, samxreT kavkasia an Savi zRvis regionia.

Seqmnili situaciis saRad SefasebasTan erTad, aucilebelia Cveni sazogadoebis (mmarTveli klasisa da opoziciis) kliSeebisa da stereotipebisgan ganTavisufleba. omisSemdgomi saqarTvelo emociurad mgZnobiare mdgomareobaSia da es gardaqmnebi sizifeseul Zalisxmevas utoldeba. aRsaniSnavia, rom garkveuli strategiul-inteleqtualuri gadafasebis gareSe ver moxerxdeba “mojadoebuli wris” garRveva, qveynis ganviTareba da winsvla. “borblis gamogonebis” sixele, dReisaTvis mxolod Cveni satrategiuli interesebis winaaRmdeg muSaobs.

ra da rogor vakeToT? maradiuli qarTuli dilema

saqarTvelos evropul da evro-atlantikur struqturebSi gawevrianebis mniSvneloba, axal realobaSi gadarCenis tolfasia. Cvens qveyanaSi bevri adamiani msjelobs imaze, Tu ra aris gasakeTebeli, magram mTavari kiTxva - “rogor?” - samwuxarod, mudam upasuxod rCeba. es kiTxva, magaliTad, konkretulad saqarTvelos evro-atlantikur struqturebSi gawevrianebis perspeqtivebsac exeba da masze pasuxis miReba dRes ufro aqtualuri gaxda. pirvel rigSi, natoSi gawevrianeba ar niSnavs am organizaciaSi integrirebas, rac gacilebiT rTuli da mravaletapiani, kompleqsuri procesia. es sakiTxi konceptualurad jer ar gamxdara sajaro ganxilvisa da debatebis sagani, Tumca arsebobs uamravi samTavrobo dokumenti, qarTvel da ucxoel eqspertTa daskvna da mosazreba. farTo sazogadoebisTvis TiTqos “daxuruli” Tema mxolod qarTuli politikuri elitis an e.w. “kontr-elitis” sakuTrebad ganixileba. isic unda aRiniSnos, rom yofiTi problemebiT gadatvirTul da daTrgunul Cvens moqalaqeebs arc natosaTvis da arc evrokavSirisaTvis didad ar scaliaT. miT ufro, rom politikosebi xSirad am Temas mxolod sakuTari piarkampaniebisaTvis iyeneben, rogorc es natoSi gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebuli gamokiTxvis dros moxda.

am gamokiTxvis mixedviT, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 70%-ze meti mxars uWers qveynis natosken aRebul gezs, Tumca ar mgonia, rom plebiscitis Sedegad

gamokiTxulTa Tundac 5% kargad hqondes gacnobierebuli natoSi gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebuli yvela detali da niuansi. amitom mgonia, rom es cifri gacilebiT ufro mokrZalebulia da mxolod eqspertebis jgufiT Semoifargleba, romlebsac realurad esmiT mimdinare gawevrianebis Tu integraciuli procesebis arsi da miznebi. eSmaki ki, rogorc mogexsenebaT, swored detalebSia damaluli. sasurvelia, rom Cvens mosaxleobas meti informacia qondes am samxedro-politikuri gaerTianebis ZiriTadi principebis da masSi mimdinare gardaqmnebis Sesaxeb. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, Tu farTo sazogadoebas droze ar avuxseniT natoSi gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebuli TiTouli sakiTxi, Tu sazogadoebaSi ar gaimarTa Ria da yovlismomcveli debatebi da diskusiebi, mosaxleobas SeiZleba Seeqmnas – Tu ki es, samwuxarod, ukve ar moxda - erTgvari usafuZvlo iluziebi, rasac Semdeg imedgacrueba da antipatiac ki mohyveba xolme rogorc natos, aseve saerTod dasavleTisa da konkretulad amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis mimarT. rogorc zemoT avRniSneT, amis niSnebi, samwuxarod, ukve saxezea da es tendenciebi gansakuTrebiT agvistos omis Semdeg gaZlierda. sazogadoebrivi azris gamokiTxvebi dReisaTvisac afiqsireben anti-dasavluri da anti-amerikuli ganwyobilebebis zrdas qarTuli sazogadoebis sakmaod did nawilSi. SesaZlebelia, amis mizezi bolo periodis sxva movlenebTan – gansakuTrebiT ki 2007 wlis noembris saprotesto aqciebTan, agreTve im damsjel operaciasTan, romelic demonstrantebis winaaRmdeg ganxorcielda da agvistos omTan - asocirdebodes da pirdapiri kavSiri arc ki hqondes saqarTvelos natoSi SesvlasTan.

evro-atlantikur struqturebSi gawevrianebisa da integrirebis sakiTxi uaRresad rTulia. masSi gadajaWvulia uamravi gare da Sidapolitikuri faqtori, teqnikuri, taqtikuri Tu strategiuli xasiaTis problemebi. saqarTvelos msgavsi ekonomikuri potencialisa da sabWoTa warsulis mqone qveynisTvis, natoSi gawevrianeba uaRresad Sromatevadi procesia. warmatebisTvis mravali sagareo da saSinao problemis mogvarebaa aucilebeli. evro-atlantikuri gaerTianebis standartebis

20

dakmayofilebis erT-erTi mTavari pirobaa saxelmwifo institutebis simyare da maT mimarT qveynis mosaxleobis ndoba. sasamarTlo sistema da kanoniereba, Zalovani saministroebis koordinirebuli muSaoba usafrTxoebis sabWos egidiT, sakanonmdeblo organos efeqturoba, ra Tqma unda, saTanado samxedro standartebis miRweva, pirvel rigSi ki demokratiis ZiriTadi principebisadmi erTguleba – ai, is mcire CamonaTvali, romelic saqarTvelos natoSi gawevrianebis perspeqtivas realobad aqcevda.

swored amiT aixsneba is mniSvneloba, rasac nato da evrokavSiri saqarTvelos institucionalur mdgradobas da demokratiis ganviTarebis xarisxs aniWeben. saxelmwifo institutebis arseboba, maTi mdgradoba da Seuferxebeli funqcionireba ufro mniSvnelovania, vidre konkretuli, Tundac qarizmatuli politikosebis saqmianoba. qveyanaSi, sadac politikosebi ufro Zlierni arian, vidre institutebi, saxelmwifo pirovnuli axirebebis da ambciebis msxverpli xdeba.

sazogadoebaSi xSirad ismis kiTxva -

ra upiratesobebi SeiZleba hqondes

saqarTvelos natoSi gawevrianebas?

saqarTvelos gaerTianeba natoSi iZleva

qveynis usafrTxoebis srul garantias, Tu es

qveyana gaxdeba koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis

sistemis nawili, sadac konkretuli qveynis

riskebi da gamowvevebi mTlianad gaerTianebis

sazrunavia (isic mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tu

am qveynis Sida, mdgradi da yovlismocveli

instituciuri usafrTxoeba garantirebuli

iqneba!). umniSvnelovanesia, agreTve, rogorc

zemoT avRniSneT, regionaluri konteqstis

gaTvaliswineba. SesaZloa, zemoT aRniSnuli

mosazrebebi hipoTeturad mogveCvenos,

magram dRevandelobis swrafi dinamikis

gaTvaliswinebiT Cvens regionSi, seriozuli

momzadeba da am ideis irgvliv sazogadoebis

realuri gaerTianeba gvmarTebs. sasurvelia,

rom evropul da evro-atlantikur

struqturebSi gawevrianebis procesi gacdes

lokalur, “qarTul” sivrces da amasTan

dakavSirebul diskusiebSi Cveni “axlo”,

Tu “gare” samezoblos interesebic iqnes

gaTvaliswinebuli.

agvistos omis Semdeg bevrjer msmenia SekiTxva, Tu ra uaryofiTi gavlena SeiZleba moaxdinos saqarTvelos stabilurobaze natoSi gaerTianebam. rogorc viciT, moskovi mudmivad akeTebs apelirebas, rom natoSi romelime yofili sabWoTa respublikis gawevrianebas aucileblad mohyveba “seriozuli uaryofiTi Sedegebi”. TiTqos am mxriv Cven aRaraferi “gvemuqreba”: separatistuli teritoriebis ruseTis mier “damoukidebel saxelmwifoebad” aRiarebiT, saqarTvelo TiTqos ganTavisuflda amgvari debatebis da diskusiebis aucileblobisgan. me ki gvgonia, rom, piriqiT, agvistos omma kidev ufro gazarda arsebuli riskebi. natos wevrobisken mimavali naCqarevi da arasworad gakvaluli biliki am riskebs im safrTxed aqcevs, romelic realuri xdeba nebismieri qveynis danawevrebis da okupaciis fonze. ruseTi (da nebismieri sxva – didi Tu patara qveyana) unda davarwmunoT, rom dasavleTisken saqarTvelos swrafva bunebrivi, Seuqcevadi procesia da aravis sawinaaRmdegod ar aris mimarTuli. piriqiT, rogorc praqtika gviCvenebs, es qveynis stabiluri ganviTarebis da misi moqmedebebis prognozirebadobis garantiaa.

vgrZnob, rom ver gaveqcevi ruseTTan urTierTobis Temas, Tumca, rogorc dagpirdiT, mis detalurad ganxilvas ar vapireb – ar maqvs zusti informacia, ar vflob detalebs imis Taobaze, Tu ra xdeboda an xdeba kuluarebSi da amitom mxolod ramodenime piradi xasiaTis mosazrebiT Semovifarglebi. rasakvirvelia, sasurvelia, rom ruseTis mxridan mezobeli qveynebis mimarT meti keTilganwyoba igrZnobodes. amis miRweva ar aris advili da es procesi yovelTvis mtkivneuli, Sromatevadi, araprognozirebadi da zogjer TiTqos uazro xasiaTisac gaxlavT. amgvari gamocdileba saqarTvelos garda mraval sxva da ufro Zlier saxelmwifoebs gaaCniaT – gadaxedeT Tundac uaxlesi diplomatiis istorias.

21

damo

ukid

ebel eqsper

tT

a klu

bi

meores mxriv, ruseTis Temis amogdeba saqarTvelos politikur/diplomatiuri diskursidan, misi sruli ignorireba (da mxolod imis konstantireba, rom “mainc araferi ar gamova”), gamaRizianebeli ritorika Tu ubralod uazro qiliki, ufro gaarTulebs am qveyanasTan urTierTobebs da, rac mTavaria, Cveni strategiuli miznebis miRwevasc. Tumca, TiTqos meti raRa unda garTuldes gawyvetili diplomatiuri urTierTobebis fonze?!

mimaCnia, rom dReisaTvis ruseT – saqarTvelos urTierTobebSi katastrofuladaa dazianebili e.w. ”strategiuli RerZi” (igulisxmeba mosazRvre qveynebs Soris stabiluri da keTilmezobluri urTierTobebi mainc), romelic nebismieri ormxrivi dialogis safuZvelia. mxareebs Soris saerTo interesebis (Tundac gansxvavebuli!) da arsebuli “strategiuli RerZis” pirobebSi, droebiTi uTanxmoebebi da disputebi advilad gvardeba. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi, warmoqmnili vakuumi mxolod mZafri ritorikiT icvleba. aseT dros, realur politikas uazro gancxadebebi cvlis da situaciis Semotrialebis ”startegiuli fasi” mkveTrad izrdeba. Cvens SemTxvevaSi es omiT da teritoriebis dakargviT dasrulda. vSiSob, rom dReisaTvis ruseTTan diskursis aRdgena saTuoa da Tu es SesaZlebeli gaxda, amas udidesi Zalisxmeva dasWirdeba da ”strategiuli fasic” saTanado iqneba – gacilebiT ufro maRali, vidre es 2008 wlis agvistomde iyo.

rogorc zemoT avRniSne, saqarTvelos

gamo dasavleTi ar daiwyebs oms ruseTTan,

miTumetes, misi mTavari forposti -

amerika, romelsac am momentisaTvis uamrav

da umwvaves saSinao sakiTxebTan erTad,

urTulesi sagareo problemebi gaaCnia:

pirvel rigSi, ra Tqma unda, avRaneTi, Semdeg

irani, erayi da saerTod axlo aRmosavleTis

Tematika, Crdilo korea da kidev bevri

ram. evropa ki, mogexsenebaT, ruseTis

energotyvea. es kargad ician vaSingtonSi

da evropis dedaqalaqebSi. rac mTavaria, es

kargad aqvs gacnobierebuli TviT ruseTsac.

swored amitomaa aucilebelia ruseTTan

”didi kompromisis” moZebna. ra Tqma unda, ara

Cveni startegiuli interesebis daTmobis

fasad.

am ”kompromisis” jer moZieba da mere

Camoyalibeba ki urTulesi saqmea da amis

mxolod mZafri, Tundac natifi ritorikis an

narativebis saSualebiT miRweva verasdros

moxerxdeba! saqarTvelos axali narativi

“berlinis kedlis” arsebobis Taobaze

dasavleTs Cveni daxmarebis survilis

magivrad strategiul diskomforts uqmnis da

misi moqmedebebi gacilebiT frTxili xdeba,

vidre es dRes Cvens interesebs Seesatyviseba.

gasagebia, rom saqarTvelo dasavleTis

mier SemoTavazebul axali kliSesTan,

“strategiuli moTminebasTan” dakavSirebiT

ver iqneba pasiuri, Tumca, aqac didi

sifrTxile gvamarTebs, vinaidan amerikelebis

mier SemoTavazebuli qcevis es formula

ar warmoadgens axali administraciis

politikis an strategiis nawils da is mxolod

ritorikis nawilia. amitom, sasurvelia,

rom am virtualuri axali gamyofi “kedlis”

demontaJis procesSi Cven TviTon ar movyveT

nangrevebSi. am mxriv sixele ar iqneboda

yvelaze upriani samoqmedo politikuri

instrumenti da swored amas gvirCeven Cveni

amerikeli kolegebi, riTac kvlav adastureben

saerTaSoriso politikis praqtikaSi

arsebul metad trivialur debulebas:

arc erTi saxelmwifo ar gansazRvravs

sakuTar sagareo politikur kurss piradi

urTierTobebis da simpatiebis safuZvelze.

amitomac kidev erTxel minda davubrunde

„borblis gamogonebis sixelis“ Temas –

qarTuli politikisTvis damaxasiaTebel

maradiul vnebas. Cemi ucxoeli megobrebisagan

xSirad msmenia, rom umniSvnelovanesi

gakveTili, romelic natos iseTma axalma

wevrma-saxelmwifoebma, rogoric rumineTi

da bulgareTia, iswavles - aRebuli

22

valdebulebebis aucilebeli Sesruleba da

amiT ndobis mopoveba.

dRevandel msoflio politikaSi arsebuli

mkacri ritorika, Tundac ruseTis

moqmedebebTan dakavSirebiT, erTgvari

preludiaa, romelic did qveynebs Soris

„didi garigebis“ an „didi vaWrobis“ sagani

SeiZleba gaxdes. amis konkretul magaliTad

prezident obamas administraciis bolo

gadawyvetilebac gamodgeba - aRar ganaTavsos

CexeTsa da poloneTSi raketsawinaaRmdego

Tavdacvis sistema. iseT qveyanas, rogoric

saqarTveloa, didi sifrTxile marTebs,

raTa naCqarevi gadawyvetilebebiT zedmetad

ar gaaRizianos oponentebi, romlebsac es

sixele, mogexsenebaT, ar akliaT da amave dros

uxerxul mdgomareobaSi ar Caayenos mokavSire

qveynebi. piriqiT, mniSvnelovania qveynis

poziciiT da qmedebebiT, xeli SevuwyoT

konstruqciuli dialogis warmarTvas da

swored am konteqstSi SevecadoT sakuTari

problemebis mogvarebas.

mxolod am SemTxvevaSi eqneba qmediTi wona amerikis SeerTebul StatebTan gaformebul „strategiul qartias“ Tu evrokavSiris mier SemoTavazebul „aRmosavluri partaniorobis“ iniciativas, romlebsac jerjerobiT mxolod deklaratiuli xasiTi aqvT. Cveni qveynis warmatebas am ori mimarTulebiT mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs is nabijebi, romlebsac saqarTvelo, pirvel rigSi, qveynis SigniT gadadgams. progresisken swrafvaSi ar unda daviviwyoT warsulis miRwevebi da, rac mTavaria, daSvebuli Secdomebi. “borblis gamogonebis“ sixele saqarTvelos evropuli da evro-atlantikuri perspeqtivebisaTvis Semaferxebeli da araadeqvaturia. samwuxarod, xSirad vangrevT ukve Ria kars da vkargavT yvelaze Zvirfas Tanamoazres – dros da SesaZleblobebs, romelTa kompensireba metad rTuli saqmea.

23

damo

ukid

ebel eqsper

tT

a klu

bisaqarTvelo metad rTul mdgomareobaSia: qveynis met-naklebad mSvidi 15 wliani ganviTarebis periodi gamanadgurebeli da damamcirebeli samxedro intervenciiT dasrulda; TiTqmis ori aTeuli wlis manZilze gadauWreli eTno-teritoriuli dava ruseTis mier iqna “gadaWrili” 2008 wlis agvistos xuTdRiani omis Semdeg, rasac mohyva diplomatiuri urTierTobebis gawyveta saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris. or mezobel qveyanas Soris konfrontaciis done maRalia. politikuri situacia saqarTveloSi mzard wuxils iwvevs rogorc qveynis SigniT, aseve saerTaSoriso donezec. amgvar viTarebaSi, saqarTvelos xelmZRvanelobis politikuri svlebi mimarTuli unda iyos racionaluri Sualeduri midgomebis gamonaxvisa da qveynisTvis ufro metad daculi samomavlo poziciebis xelSewyobisaken, rogorc strategiul mokavSireebTan, aseve strategiul mowinaaRmdegeebTan ndobis aRdgenisa da, paralelurad, qveynis Sida politikisa da adamianTa usafrTxoebis kuTxiT arsebuli mdgomareobis stabilizaciis meSveobiT. aRniSnulis miRweva SesaZlebelia erovnuli erTobis Seqmnis obieqturi, gamWvirvale da angariSvaldebuli politikiTa da yvela umniSvnelovanes sakiTxebze Ria dialogis demonstrirebis saSualebiT. dRemde is, rasac Cven realurad vxedavT, radikalurad sapirispiroa: mmarTveli gundis midgomebi da svlebi naklebad konstruqciulia, umetesad subieqturi da ara obieqturi mizezebis gamo. mTlianobaSi, qveynis Sida mdgomareoba kidev ufro damZimda agvistos omis Semdeg. imisaTvis, rom ganvWvritoT, Tu ra SeiZleba moxdes an ar moxdes uaxloes momavalSi, Seswavlili unda iyos qveyanaSi Seqmnili viTarebis rogorc saSinao, aseve sagareo aspeqtebi.

agvistos Semdgomi gamowvevebi

da reagirebis gareSe darCenili

safrTxeebi

2008 wlis 26 agvistos ruseTis prezidentma xeli moawera brZanebas, romelmac daamtkica ruseTis federaciis saxelmwifo dumis gadawyvetileba afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukidebel saxelmwifoebad aRiarebis Sesaxeb. aRniSnuli qmedeba calmxrivad ganxorcielda, yovelgvari konsultaciis gareSe, rogorc saerTaSoriso organizaciebTan, aseve saqarTvelosTan – qveyanasTan, romlis teritoriis nawilsac Seadgenen sadao regionebi. saqarTveloa is qveyana, romelmac ruseTis federaciasTan erTad 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi xeli moawera SeTanxmebebs, romelnic saqarTveloSi arsebul konfliqtis zonebTan damokidebulebas gansazRvravdnen. ruseTis mier zemoaRniSnul aRiarebas moyva, rogorc damoukidebel xelismomwer mxareebs Soris, ormxrivi SemTanxmebebis gaformeba samxedro sferoSi TanamSromlobis CaTvliT.

2010 wlis damdegisTvis sami qveynis garda (nikaragua, venesuela da nauru), arc erT sxva qveyanas ar dauWeria mxari ruseTisTvis afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukidebel qveynebad cnobis sakiTxSi. moskovis Zalisxmevis miuxedavad, belarusma uari ganacxada daeyenebina aRniSnuli aRiarebis sakiTxi parlamentis dRis wesrigSi.

saerTaSoriso sazogadoebriobam uaryofiTad Seafasa ruseTis gadawyvetilebebi, Tumca gadaWarbebuli sifrTxile gamoiCina ruseTis qmedebebis Sefasebisas im teritoriebze, romelsac saqarTvelo okupirebulad

giorgi xuciSvili

saqarTvelos usafrTxoebis dilema agvistos Semdgom realobaTa Suqze

24

miiCnevs1, vidre saqarTveloSi konfliqtis Sesaxeb evrokavSiris mier Seqmnili faqtebis damdgeni damoukidebeli saerTaSoriso misiis (e. w. taliavinis komisia) angariSi gamoqveyndeboda. 2009 wlis Semodgomaze gamoqveynebuli am komisiis daskvnebis mixedviT, aRiarebis aqti ewinaaRmdegeboda saerTaSoriso samarTlis normebsa da principebs.2 ruseTis liderebi mas Semdeg mxolod irwmunebian, rom maTi gadawyvetileba aRiarebis Sesaxeb (agreTve Sesabamisi SeTanxmebebi da dokumentebi) “sabolooa da ar Seicvleba”.

ruseTisTvis TviTgamamarTlebeli suraTis aTvlis wertils warmoadgenda prezident saakaSvilis 2008 wlis 7 agvistos televiziebiT farTod gaSuqebuli gancxadeba imis Sesaxeb, rom qarTuli samxedro SenaerTebi mTlianad akontrolebdnen qalaq cxinvals da rom uaxloes dReebSi mzaddeboda separatistuli regionis mTeli teritoriis gaTavisufleba, riTic dasruldeboda ocwliani eTno-teritoriuli dava. ruseTis mas-media, amavdroulad avrcelebda qarTuli artileriis qmedebaTa Sesaxeb sagangaSo informacias, romlis mixedviTac, cxinvalis dasaxlebuli ubnebi ibombeboda, riTac qarTvelebi TiTqosda lamobdnen ara ubralod qalaqis dapyrobas, aramed os separatistebTan Zveli angariSebis gasworebas da maT mTlianad ganadgurebas(!!!).

arc taliavinis komisiam da arc raime sxva kompetenturma wyaroebma ar daadastures genocidis Sesaxeb ruseTis braldeba, Tumca meores mxriv, daadastures cxinvalSi saakaSviliseuli operaciis maprovocirebeli roli, romelmac ruseTis mier samxedro okupaciis katastrofuli Sedegebi, samoqalaqo msxverpli da ganadgurebuli infrastruqtura moitana suverenuli qveynis did teritoriaze.3 ar aris

gasakviri, rom ruseTis mier saqarTveloSi SemoWra 8 agvistos Semdeg msoflioSi kvalificirebuli iyo (agvistos omis dros da mis Semdeg jorj buSisa da kondoliza raisis gancxadebebis CaTvliT), rogorc “ruseTis mier araproporciuli reaqcia” (cxadia, saakaSvilis qmedebis mimarT) da ara rogorc “araprovocirebuli agresia”, rogorc is, ueWvelia, rom sxva SemTxvevaSi Sefasdeboda.

TavianTi qmedebebis samarTlebrivad dasabuTebisTvis ruseTis liderebi yovelTvis cdiloben, nawilobriv, moixmaron saerTaSoriso samarTlis adaptirebuli principebi, ufro metad ki, supersaxelmwifoebisaTvis Cveuli ’real-politikis’ TamaSis wesebi da praqtika. mocemul SemTxvevaSi, ruseTis qmedebebi saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg, TiTqosda, gamowveuli iyo ‘samxreT oseTSi TavianTi e.w. ‘moqalaqeebis’ dacvis Sesaxeb pasuxismgeblobiT’ (miuxedavad imisa, rom im droisTvis cxinvalis regioni/samxreT oseTi sayovelTaod iyo aRiarebuli, rogorc saqarTvelos nawili). sinamdvileSi, ruseTma xelovnurad Seqmna rusuli diaspora ruseTis pasportebis darigebis saSualebiT, riTac samxedro Carevis safuZveli ganimtkica. Tavisi qmedebebis samarTlebrivi dasabuTebisTvis ruseTis mier saerTaSoriso samarTalze dayrdnobis mcdelobas kvlavac seriozuli winaaRmdegobebi gaaCnia. gaeros generaluri asambleis 2005 wlis dokumenti mxolod qveynis sazRvrebs SigniT moqalaqeTa dacvis Sesaxeb saxelmwifos pasuxismgeblobas gansazRvravs. nebismier sxva SemTxvevaSi (rogorc, magaliTad, es 2008 wlis agvistoSi moxda) igi ar gulisxmobs sxva saxelmwifos saqmeebSi an teritoriaze SeWris gamarTlebas.4

situacia radikalurad Seicvala 2008 wlis agvistos Semdgomi movlenebis

1. gaeros uSiSroebis sabWos 2009 wlis rezoluciam daadastura rogorc pirveli, aseve meore (agvistosSem-dgomi) nakadis iZulebiT gadaadgilebul pirTa TavianT saxlebSi dabrunebis uryevi ufleba.

2. ix. saqarTveloSi konfliqtis Sesaxeb faqtebis damdgeni damoukidebeli saerTaSoriso misiis angariSi, tomi I, 2009 wlis seqtemberi, gv. 10-33.

3. unda aRiniSnos, rom saqarTveloSi didi da dadebiTi rezonansi mohyva andrei ilarionovis kvlevas ruseT-saqarTvelos omze. igi namdvilad Seicavs mt-kicebulebas imisa, rom ruseTi agvistomde didi xniT adre emzadeboda omisTvis, amyarebda ra afxazeTTan kvazisaxelmwifoebriv urTierTobas da bevrjer mouxde-nia qarTuli mxaris provocireba. amave dros, ilariono-vis naSromi mTlianad ignorirebas ukeTebs saqarTvelos

mxridan konfrontaciis provocirebis raime faqts (mag. rogor unda iyos sarwmuno 2004 wels zafxulSi samxreT oseTSi momxdari konfrontaciis aRwera, Tuki naxsenebic ar aris imdroindeli Tavdacvis ministris, irakli oqru-aSvilis roli, an Tu saerTod ar Seexebi saqarTvelos samxedro Setevas cxinvalze 2008 wlis agvistoSi?). ilari-onovis kvleva sasargebloa, rogorc mtkicebuleba ruse-Tis rolisa vardebis revoluciis Semdeg saqarTveloSi ganviTarebul movlenebSi. igi metad calmxrivia da ar qmnis srul an obieqtur suraTs, risi pretenziac gaaCnia.

4. ixileT gaeros generaluri asambleis 2005 wlis Semajamebeli dokumenti, agreTve Sesabamis sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT Seqmnili saerTaSoriso koaliciis masalebi ‘dacvis pasuxismgeblobis Sesaxeb’ (R2P) da doqtor gareT evansis – im dros, saerTaSoriso sakriziso jgufis Tav-mjdomaris – mier gaqeTebuli ganmartebebi.

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ganviTarebisTanave. ruseTis xelmZRvaneloba mimarTavs Zalisxmevas, rom yvelani Seeguon ‘axal realobas’. misi TvalTaxedviT, aRar arseboben Sida eTno-politikuri konfliqtebi saqarTveloSi: es sakiTxi, TiTqosda, amoiwura ori TviTaRiarebuli saxelmwifos cnobiT. saqarTveloSi cecxlis Sewyvetis monitoringis da adgilze situaciis dakvirvebis (usafrTxoebis zonebSi) mandatiT dasadgurebuli saerTaSoriso misiebis bedi, Sesabamisad, unda gadasinjuliyo. ruseTis azriT, aRar arsebobs afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis sazRvrebs SigniT usafrTxoebis kontrolis aucilebloba, radgan rusebi isedac akontroleben sazRvrebs da, maTi interpretaciiT, saqarTvelos ar emuqreba raime safrTxe “yofili sadao teritoriebis mxridan”. meore mxriv, saqarTvelo aprotestebs mis teritoriaze calmxrivi saerTaSoriso misiebis arsebobas, rac daadasturebda realuri safrTxis rusul interpretacias. medvedev-sarkozis eqvspunqtiani SeTanxmebis ganxorcieleba swored im punqtebze Seferxda da waborZikda, romelic samxedro SenaerTebis 6 agvistos mdgomareobiT ganTavsebas (risi Sesrulebac ruseTis xelmZRvanelobas arc ki ufiqria) da evrokavSiris monitoringis misiis moqmedebis mandats exeboda konfliqtis Sedegad dazaralebul zonebSi.

rogorc aRmoCnda, agvistosSemdgomi status kvo-s farglebSi Caketva orive qveynis xelmZRvanelTa interesSi iyo. mniSvnelovania, rom saqarTvelos oficialuri poziciis mixedviT, agvistosSemdgomi realobis ganviTarebis interpretacias garkveuli paralelebi aqvs rusul interpretaciasTan. ramdenadac sarisko ar unda iyos es, iTqva, rom agvistos Semdeg Cven aRar gvaqvs aRarc konfliqturi zonebi saqarTvelos teritoriaze, aRarc Sidapolitikuri konfliqtebi, aramed gvaqvs mxolod okupirebuli teritoriebi.5 rogorc Cven amas Semdgom teqstSi vnaxavT, aRniSnuli interpretacia gamowveuli iyo, nawilobriv, dialogis sakiTxis dRis wesrigidan amoSlisa da misi SeuZleblobis dasabuTebis saWiroebiT, iseve rogorc imiT, rom igi Seesabamebodes post-sabWour saqarTvelos

politikur azrovnebaSi dominirebul Tvalsazriss – saqarTvelosTvis erTaderT sapirispiro “meore” mxares ruseTi warmoadgens - riTac konfliqtis mravalmxrivi struqturis mxolod qarTul-rusul konfliqtamde dayvana, da “meore” mxaris mTlianad ruseTTan gaigiveba miiRweoda.

teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgena, oficialur dRis wesrigSi, kvlav maRal niSnulze dgas, Tumca, es sakiTxi ufro metad ritualuri gaxda, vidre realuri mizani. es cxadia yvelasTvis, vinc aTviTcnobierebs im fundamentur cvlilebebs, rasac adgili aqvs 2008 wlis agvistos Semdeg. yvelaze mniSvnelovani uaryofiTi cvlilebebi, romlebic 5 dRiani omis Semdeg dRemde damdgara, moicavs ruseTis xelmZRvanelobis mier saerTaSoriso sazogadoebaze zewolis Sedegad euTos misiis saqarTvelodan gayvanas da aseve gaeros damkvirvebelTa misiis Sewyveta/argagrZelebas, ramac saqarTveloSi konfliqtis Sedegad dazaralebuli zonebi, faqtiurad, yovelgvari saerTaSoriso kontrolis saSualebebis gareSe datova.

mxareebis mier erTmaneTis aRqma

moskovi cdilobs saqarTvelos daumkvidros saerTaSoriso normebis da SeTanxmebebis damrRvevi qveynis imiji, romelic mudmivad mimarTavs destruqciul Zalismier qmedebebs misgan gamoyofili regionebis mimarT, xels uwyobs terorizms CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi da, amgvarad, safrTxes uqmnis saerTaSoriso stabilurobas. moskovi moiTxovs ruseTis, rogorc ufro ganviTarebuli da pasuxismgeblobis mqone Zalis mxridan mTel regionze kontrolis dawesebas. mTavrobis mier kontrolirebadi mas-mediisa da diplomatiuri berketebis meSveobiT moskovi cdilobs daarwmunos saerTaSoriso sazogadoebrioba, rom ar daexmaros saqarTvelos politikurad an ekonomikurad, radgan nebismier saerTaSoriso daxmarebas saqarTvelo samxedro potencialis aRsadgenad gamoiyenebs da kvlav Seecdeba ZaliT SemoierTos dakarguli teritoriebi. politikur doneze, or qveyanas Soris diplomatiuri urTierToba kvlav Sewyvetilia da medvedevic da putinic adastureben, rom araviTari molaparakeba

5. omis dasrulebisTanave saqarTvelos parlamen-tis mier miRebli kanoni okupirebul teritoriebis Ses-axeb gakritikebuli iyo veneciis komisiis mier urTierT-gamomricxavi punqtebis gamo. igi aseve winaaRmdegobaSi modis mTavrobis mier miRebul strategiis dokumentTan (ix. qvemoT) da amitom, savaraudod, Seicvleba.

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ar iqneba SesaZlebeli, vidre saakaSvilia xelisuflebis saTaveSi.

afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi gamoxatuli damokidebulebis mixedviT, qarTuli sazogadoeba ar aris megobrulad ganwyobili afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis sazogadoebis mimarT da, imis magivrad, rom moinanios Tavisi roli eTnikuri omebis gaRvivebaSi, saqarTvelo ruseTs adanaSaulebs separatizmis mxardaWeraSi. gamoyofili regionebisTvis “maRali donis” avtonomiis metad zogadi xasiaTis SeTavazebis garda, teritoriuli mowyobis federaluri principis da Zalauflebis decentralizaciis ideas arasodes moupovebia mxardaWera saqarTveloSi, ris gamoc, afxazebi da osebi saqarTvelodan wamosul nebismier winadadebas gaerTianebis Sesaxeb araseriozulad da maTTvis sazianod miiCneven. isini Tvlian, rom saqarTvelo ar aris dainteresebuli adamianuri da kulturuli kavSirebis aRdgeniT afxazur da samxreT-osur sazogadoebasTan da mxolod dakarguli teritoriebis SemoerTeba surs. afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi ar mimarTaven araviTar Zalisxmevas, rom ganasxvavon reJimebi, samoqalaqo sazogadoeba, mosaxleoba da istoriuli etapebi – saqarTvelo maTTvis erTi saerTo mteria.

afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi sakmaod gavrcelebuli azris Tanaxmad, 2008 wels saqarTvelo gegmavda ieriSi mietana afxazeTze, da amas Seasrulebda, Tumca ukanasknel momentSi Secvala gegma da cxinvals daartya, anda, ‘afxazeTis operacias’ savaraudod unda daefara ‘oseTis operacia’, romelic saqarTvelos xelmZRvanelobas ufro advilad ganxorcielebadad miaCnda bunebrivi landSaftisa da sazRvrebTan advili misadgomebidan gamomdinare. miuxedavad amisa, wyaroebze dayrdnobiT, afxazeTis xelmZRvanelobam (samxreT oseTis xelmZRvanelobisgan gansxvavebiT) Segnebulad Seikava Tavi agvistoSi ruseTis samxedro operaciaSi monawileobisagan konfliqturi teritoriebis miRma da arCia, ar gaexsna ‘meore fronti’ kodorSi.

afxazuri SemarTeba evropasTan kavSirebis damyarebis mimarTebiT, aSkarad eyrdnoba ekonomikisa da turizmis xelSewyobis ideas, faruli ganzraxva ki imaSi mdgomareobs, rom, garkveulwilad, daabalansos ruseTis mzardi dominireba afxazeTSi. Tumca, am etapze,

araviTar SemxvevaSi es ar niSnavs afxazeTis ufro metad tolerantul damokidebulebas saqarTvelosTan urTierTkavSiris damyarebis sakiTxSi. afxazeTis saqarTvelosgan gaucxoebis done kvlav maRalia, xolo mis mimarT ndobis faqtori ki isev yvelaze dabal niSnulzea.

Cvenebebi da ukuCvenebebi dialogisaTvis

Seqmnili Cixuri situacia ar SeiZleba aixsnas da gamarTlebuli iyos, rogorc mTlianad mesame mxaris intervenciis Sedegi. saqarTvelos oficiozis mier Seqmnili mankieri wre, romelic asabuTebs missave umoqmedobas agvistos Semdgom status kvo-sTan mimarTebiT, SesaZlebelia amgvarad Camoyalibdes (qvemore argumentebi mravaljer iqna gameorebuli saqarTvelos prezidentisa da misi uaxloesi garemocvis mier sxvadasxva dros da sxvadasxva formiT): ‘gveubnebian, rom Cven pirdapir unda vesaubroT mowinaaRmdege mxares – afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis separatist liderebs. ki batono, davelaparakebodiT maT, magram isini mxolod imas ityvian, rasac maTi ufrosebi daavaleben moskovidan. gamomdinare iqidan, rom separatisti liderebi mTlianad moskovze arian damokidebulni, migvaCnia, rom azri ar aqvs ‘de faqto’ xelisuflebasTan molaparakebas. mzad varT visaubroT maT xelmZRvanelebTan moskovSi, radgan gvesmis, rom isini floben molaparakebis gasaRebs. magram ruseTis xelmZRvaneloba uars acxadebs CvenTan saubarze, da swored isini ketaven Cixidan gamosasvlels da ara Cven’. aqedan gamomdinare, aSkaraa, rom erTaderTi gza imisaTvis rom gavarRvioT arsebuli situacia, gaxlavT is, rom Zlier da motivirebul saerTaSoriso Zalebs mivceT mobilizebis saSualeba, situaciaSi Caerion da cvlilebebs miaRwion.

yvelaze zerele SexedviTac ki naTelia am argumentaciis jaWvis sisuste, romelic arsebiTad uSlis xels im Sida cvlilebebs, rac aucilebelia axal gamowvevebze da problemebze sapasuxod da romelic pasuxismgeblobas saerTaSoriso moTamaSeebs akisrebs da sabolood yvelas ‘mesiis’ gamoCenis molodinSi amyofebs. mTavrobis mier kontrolirebadi media-arxebi usazRvro informacias amuSaveben, raTa raime

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mtkicebuleba moZebnon imisa, Tu rogori demoralizebuli da dezorganizebulia ruseTis jari, rogori areulobaa CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi, rogor izrdeba energetikis eqsportze fasebi an citireben SeerTebuli Statebisa Tu natos teqstebs saqarTvelos natoSi gardauvali gawevrianebis Sesaxeb – mokled, isini yvelafers mimarTaven, ramac mosaxleobas SesaZlebeli molodinebi gauZlieron im mimarTulebiT, rom ruseTi male daiqceva, an saqarTvelo ufro Zlier mxardaWeras moipovebs. Tumca, amavdroulad Seqmnili virtualuri realoba sinamdvileSi siRrmiseulad adasturebs, rom es mankieri wre WeSmaritad mankieria da ver gajansaRdeba.

qarTul-afxazur da qarTul-osur urTierTobebSi arsebuli viTareba

saqarTvelos saxelmwifo politika ar aRiarebs afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis ‘de faqto’ xelisuflebas. ufro metic, maTTan yvela sakomunikacio arxi daiketa da kritikul situaciaSi, rogorc magaliTad, cxinvalSi 2009 wels qarTveli mozardebis dakavebis Semdeg, saerTaSoriso organizaciebs uwevT TavisTavze mediatorobis iniciativis aReba6. 2007 wlidan gauqmda erT dros aqtiuri erToblivi sakontrolo komisia da erTaderTi formati, romelic mxareebs Sexvedris da diskusiis SesaZleblobas aZlevs, evrokavSiris egidiTi Seqmnili Jenevis formatia, romelic arasakmarisia da araefeqturi. (JenevaSi SeTanxmebuli incidentTa sawinaaRmdego meqanizmi dRemde erTaderTi pozitiuri Sedegia, rac ki omis Semdgom mravalmxriv molaparakebebs moyolia). qarTveli oficialuri pirebis pozicia ‘de faqto’ xelisuflebasTan komunikaciis uaryofis Sesaxeb Semdeg argumentebamdea dayvanili: a) isini arian marionetuli reJimebi da ar SeuZliaT moskovis nakarnaxevisgan gansxvavebuli gadawyvetilebebis miReba an politikis SemuSaveba, da Sesabamisad, azrs kargavs maTTan urTierToba; b) moskovi uars ambobs saqarTvelos dRevandel xelisuflebasTan urTierTobaze da, amdenad, adgilze situaciis marTva ver moxerxdeba

6 adamianis uflebaTa sakiTxebSi evropis sabWos umaRlesi komisris, Tomas hamarbergis ZalisxmeviT 2009 wlis dekemberSi cxinvalidan gaTavisuflebuli iyvnen dakavebuli mozardebi.

moskovTan urTierTobis saSualebiT. erTaderTi berketi saerTaSoriso sazogadoebriobis xelSia, romlis, xSir SemTxvevaSi, pasiurobasac sayveduroben TbilisSi.

TbilisSi arsebuli molodinebis Tanaxmad, ruseTis energo-dominantis ambiciebidan gamomdinare realur safrTxes evropis ufro konsolidirebuli reqcia unda gamoewvia. am versiam dakarga Tavisi damajerebloba maSin, rodesac, miuxedavad ruseTis mier evropisTvis gazmomaragebis Sewyvetisa 2008 wlis zamTarSi da ruseT-ukrainis “gazis omisa”, evropis mTeli imedebi ruseTTan mimarTebaSi, dakavSirebuli aRmoCnda ‘TanamSromlobis saSualebiT marTvis’ politikasTan, prezident obamas mier wamowyebul ‘gadatvirTvis’ mcdelobaze dayrdnobiT.

raSia gamosavali? upirveles yovlisa, unda vicodeT, rom, rogorc ar unda Seicvalos politika an liderebi moskovsa da TbilisSi, cxinvalis da soxumis Semobruneba Tbilisiken uaxloes wlebSi ver moxdeba. aSkaraa, rom ormxrivad gaucxoebuli qarTul-afxazuri da qarTul–osuri urTierTobebi moiTxovs saxalxo diplomatiis ganaxlebul ineqcias, gangrZobad Zalisxmevas, romelic orive mxridan ufro farTe da gavlenian jgufebze imoqmedebs da samuSao sakomunikacio arxs gaxsnis. mas Semdeg, rac Temur iakobaSivili gaxda saxelmwifo ministri reintegraciis sakiTxebSi (adre cnobili, rogorc konfliqtebis mogvarebis saministro), gafarTovda dialogis warmoebis ZalisxmevaSi monawile samoqalaqo sazogadoebis nawilTan misi uwyebis urTierToba. saqarTveloSi Seqmnil Sida viTarebaze saerTaSoriso rezonansma mTavroba aiZula eCvenebina axali konstruqciuli midgomebi da dialogisTvis gaxsniloba da mzaoba. 2009 wlis bolosTvis damoukidebeli eqspertebis da samoqalaqo sazogadoebis warmomadgenlebTan konsultaciebis Sedegad SemuSavebuli saxelmwifo strategiis dokumenti, romelsac “okupirebuli teritoriebis mimarT saxelmwifo strategia – CarTuloba TanamSromlobis gziT” ewodeba, pirvelad usvams xazs dialogis aucileblobas separatistul sazogadoebebTan da aRiarebs samoqalaqo sazogadoebis rols am kuTxiT. “TanamSromlobis gziT CarTulobis” strategiis mixedviT, arc ‘de faqto’ xelisuflebasTan urTierTobaa gamoricxuli.

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kvlav ar Cans, rom xelisuflebis praqtikuli qmedeba damtkicebuli strategiuli dokumentis Sesabamisi iyos. qarTuli arasamTavrobo da samoqalaqo sazogadoebis organizaciebi, romelTa iniciativiTac Sedga mxareebs Soris araformaluri Sexvedrebi, yvela siZnelis miuxedavad, kvlav ar iSureben Zalisxmevas, rom SeinarCunon dialogisa da komunikaciis arsebuli arxebi7.

Cixuri situaciebi, rogorc politikis warmoebis iaraRi

farTod cnobilia xelisuflebis Tezisi: “vidre qarTuli miwebis okupacia grZeldeba, omi ar damTavrebula”. rodemde SeiZleba gagrZeldes aseT SemTxvevaSi omi, miTumetes Tu samSvidobo molaparakeba SeuZlebladaa gamocxadebuli?

konfliqtebis gadawyvetaSi Cixur situaciasa da gamouval mdgomareobas erTi “sasargeblo” mxare axlavs Tan, gansakuTrebiT Tuki es situacia dakavSirebulia gare, mesame mxaris aqtivobidan gamomdinare safrTxeebTan: gadawyvetilebis mimRebi piri SesaZlebelia umtkivneulod iyos gaTavisuflebuli im pasuxismgeblobisgan, romelic mas konstuqciuli gamosavlis ZiebaSi progresis miRwevas akisrebs; saSualeba eZleva mis winaSe mdgari amocanebi Semdeg politikur Taobas gadaabaros da garkveuli drois ganmavlobaSi Tavidan aicilos uunarobis braldeba. amgvarad, arsebobs cduneba, rom Cixuri mdgomareoba ‘dinamo-manqanad’ gadaaqcion, Seqmnan gare safrTxis imiji, rogorc mudmivis, yovlismomcvelis da umarTavis da Sesabamisad, Sida politikuri realoba naxevrad-samxedro qronikul sagangebo situaciad aqcion. swored aseT mdgomareobasTan gvaqvs dRes saqme saqarTveloSi.

saqarTvelos xelmZRvaneloba da mis samsaxurSi myofi ideologebi xSirad afiqsireben, rom “maT adgilas veravin ver SeZlebda ukeTesad”; “cotac moiTmineT, da cvlilebebic iqneba”. sxvagvarad, wagebul omze pasuxismgeblobis wili da qveynis erTianobis aRdgenis dakarguli Sansi ufro metad wamoiwevs wina planze, xolo moqmedi xelmZRvanelobis xelaxali arCevisa ki

ufro Semcirdeba. sakiTxi ar dgas imgvarad, rom xelmZRvanelobam ver SeZlo zogierTi instrumentebis da saSualebebis SemuSaveba an gamoyeneba. ubralod, ar arsebobs iseTi instrumentebi da SesaZleblobebi, romliTac SesaZlebeli iqneboda amocanis Sesruleba ruseTis monawileobis gareSe. amgvarad afasebs situacias saerTaSoriso Tanamegobroba, im gamonaklisi pirovnebebisa da dajgufebebis garda, romlebic cdiloben, safrTxeebisa da riskebis yvela obieqturi mtkicebulebis sawinaaRmdegod, nebismier fasad, bolomde dauWiron mxari saqarTvelos aqtiur anti-rusul pozicias, rac sazianoa ara mxolod saqarTvelosTvis, aramed ufro farTe regionis usafrTxoebisTvisac.

Seqmnili Cixuri situaciis ganzomilebebia:

saqarTvelos xelmZRvaneloba qmnis •suraTs, TiTqos flobs ruseTTan mkacri politikuri xazis gatarebis berketebs maSin, roca am mimarTulebiT ar arsebobs aqtiuri sagareo mxardaWera an Sesaferisi garemo;

ruseTi saqarTveloSi warmoCenilia •rogorc mxare, romelTanac SeuZlebelia molaparakeba; ruseTis imiji iracionalur sferoSia gadayvanili;

araviTari realuri politikuri •qmedebebi ar ganxorcielebula, romliTac SesaZlebeli gaxdeboda afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis mosaxleobis saqarTvelos mimarT gaucxoebis xarisxis Semcireba;

araviTari resursi da •SesaZleblobebi ar Cans saerTaSoriso sazogadoebriobis ruseTze zewolis gaaqtiurebisaTvis, raTa am ukanasknelma Secvalos afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukidebel saxelmwifoebad cnobis gadawyvetileba.

ruseTTan dialogis dawyebis perspeqtivebi

moskovsa da TbilisSi araerTgvarovani suraTi ikveTeba. rusuli wyaroebis mixedviT, moskovSi arsebobs ori poziciis garSemo

7. ix.: konfliqtis zonebSi adamianTa usafrTxoe-bisda ganviTarebis qarTuli da afxazuri perspeqtivebi (A Policy Research Initiative). Brussels and Madrid: CITpax, 2009.

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dajgufebuli gavleniani pirovnebebi: pirveli jgufi emxroba movlenebis ganviTarebas arsebuli formatiT, anu araviTari oficialuri kontaqtebi da molaparakebebi, vidre saakaSvili xelisuflebaSia; gagrZeldes sainformacio omi, da a.S. amis sapirispirod, meore jgufi cdilobs daasabuTos winapirobebis gareSe urTierTobis damyarebis procesis aucilebloba, rasac, qarTuli mxarisgan analogiuri mzadyofnis demonstrireba daWirdeba. saqarTvelos mxareze Seqmnili suraTi naklebad bundovania: saqarTvelos sajaro sivrceSi sakiTxisadmi gamefebuli iracionaluri damokidebuleba (ix. zemoT) xels uSlis nebismier gavlenian jgufs Riad daicvas dialogis mxardaWeris Sesabamis politikaSi gadazrdis aucilebloba.

saakaSvilis sajaro gancxadebebis aRqma mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeba SevardnaZis prezidentobis droindeli gancxadebebis aRqmisgan: es ukanaskneli akeTebda politikuri xazis mimaniSnebel kargad gaazrebul miTiTebebs, saakaSvili ki ufro xSirad Tavis emociur ganwyobas gamoxatavs da ufro ‘piar-kampanias’ awarmoebs, vidre raime mwyobr strategiul xazze mianiSnebs Tavis gamosvlebSi.

amgvarad, qarTveli TviTmxilveli ukanasknel wlebSi mieCvia imas, rom ar Sexedos mis gancxadebebs, rogorc misi gundis politikuri dRis wesrigis aucilebel nawils. rodesac prezidenti parlamentis tribunidan acxadebs, rom “araviTari dialogi ar daiwyeba, vidre ukanaskneli okupanti jariskaci ar datovebs Cvens miwas”, es ise aRiqmeba, TiTqos iseT rames ambobdes, rasac mTeli misi gundi eTanxmeba, da rac sxvebs SiSs hgvris. mTavari kiTxva am gancxadebasTan mimarTebiT Semdegia: rogor unda daiwyos odesme de-okupaciis procesi, Tuki mas win ar uZRvis molaparakebis procesi? radgan xelisuflebis mier mkacrad kontrolirebad media-sivrceSi ar ismeba aseTi kiTxvebi da ar fiqsirdeba gansxvavebuli pozicia, imave mediis interpretaciiT, sazogadoeba, TiTqos mxars uWers zemoxsenebul gancxadebas.

putinma da medvedevma ramodenimejer gaimeores agvistos omis Semdeg, rom vidre saakaSvilia xelisuflebaSi, isini ar daelaparakebian saqarTvelos xelmZRvanelobas. amgvari gancxadebis Canafiqri iyo agvistosSemdgomi status

kvo-s ‘gayinva’, molaparakebebis perspeqtivis Caketva da miznad isaxavda Sida Zalebis waxalisebas saakaSvilis Sesacvlelad, rac gzas gaxsnida Zlevamosil Crdiloel mezobelTan urTierTobis aRdgenisaTvis. putinis gancxadebam agvistos omis dasrulebisTanave, marTalia, droebiT, magram mainc sawinaaRmdego Sedegi gamoiRo – xalxi saswrafod gaerTianda arsebuli erovnuli simboloebis (prezidentis CaTvliT) garSemo, masSi kidev ufro gaZlierda ruseTis, rogorc maradiuli mCagvrelis negatiuri imiji. moskovis gaTvlebis sapirispirod, saakaSvilis reitingi agvistos omis Semdgom garkveul periodSi kidev ufro gamyarda. axlac ki, opoziciuri partiebis umravlesoba saWirod Tvlis gaemijnos moskovTan nebismieri kontaqtis damyarebis mcdelobas, raTa ar dabraldeT antipatriotuli qmedeba.

gayinuli Cixidan gamosasvlelad alternatiuli arxebis Ziebis magivrad, Tundac opoziciis liderTa aqtivobis saSualebiT, realuri situacia saqarTveloSi xels uSlis moskovTan da separatistul mTavrobebTan kontaqtis damyarebis yvela mcdelobas da yoveli aseTi mcdelobis iniciators saxelmwifos winaaRmdeg ZirgamomTxrel saqmianobaSi braldebis saSiSroebas uqmnis.

ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTobaTa sakiTxis iracionalur sferoSi moqceva im fiqrebis mTeli jaWvis Tavidan acilebis saSualebaa, romelic gardauvlad daipyrobs xalxis gonebas da martiv WeSmaritebas gamoavlens: yvela is procesi, romelic problemebis Sesaxeb dialogs, ndobis aRdgenas, urTierTobebis damyarebas emsaxureba da momavalSi qveynis mTlianobis aRdgenis Sanss Seqmnida, dRevandeli xelmZRvanelebis politikur keTildReobas ewireba, im liderebisa, romelTac ar SeuZliaT erTmaneTTan saubari.

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Sesavali

2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdgom saqarTvelos winaSe arsebuli samxedro safrTxeebi kidev ufro gaizarda. qveyanaSi arsebuli ori separatistuli regioni ruseTma damoukidebel saxelmwifoebad aRiara da maTTan ormxrivi xelSekrulebebis safuZvelze, e.w. sarkozi-medvedevis SeTanxmebis darRveviT, afxazeTsa da cxinvali regionSi samxedro bazebi ganalaga. amasTan, saqarTvelos xelisuflebam dakarga kontroli axalgoris raionsa da zemo afxazeTze, ris Sedegadac separatistuli xelisuflebis kontrols qveS moeqca damatebiT sakmaod didi teritoriebi. axalgoris raionSi okupantebis mier ganalagebulma samxedro Zalebma, faqtobrivad, qveynis SuagulSi warmoqmnes samxedro safrTxeebi, romelTa neitralizacia an mis winaaRmdeg gamklaveba qarTuli saxelmwifos erT-erT seriozul gamowvevad iqca.

ruseTTan diplomatiuri urTierTobis gawyvetasTan erTad, gauqmebulia ruseTis samSvidobo mandati; aseve Sewyda gaeros samSvidobo misia afxazeTSi, xolo euTo-s samSvidobo mandati – cxinvalis regionSi. sanacvlod amoqmedda evrokavSiris sadamkvireblo misia, romlis funqcia ZiriTadad sadamkvireblo saqmianobiT ganisazRvra, isic mxolod e.w. buferul zonebSi, anu saqarTvelos xelisuflebis mier kontrolirebad teritoriebze. saqarTvelos Tavdacvis saministrom gaaforma memorandumi evrokavSiris sadamkvireblo misiasTan, romlis farglebSic saqarTvelos Tavdacvis saministrom daafiqsira Tavisi neba, Semdgomi eskalaciisgan Tavis aridebis mizniT, e.w. buferul zonebSi samxedro Zalebis SezRuduli odenobiT ganTavsebis Taobaze.

bolo erTi wlis manZilze qarTul sazogadoebas araerTxel smenia ruseTis mxridan morigi agresiis albaTobisa da Sesabamisi safrTxeebis Sesaxeb. am fonze Cvens qveyanaSi usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa erT-erT mTavar prioritets unda warmoadgendes, Tumca rogorc Cans, agresiisgan Tavdacva ufro metad damokidebuli gaxda saerTaSoriso mxardaWeraze, vidre Cvens samxedro SesaZleblobebze.

saqarTvelos geopolitikuri mimzidvelobisa da regionaluri stabilurobis mniSvnelobis gaTvaliswinebiT, aseve rusuli agresiis gafarToebis SesaZleblobebis aRsakveTad, rogorc evrokavSirma, aseve amerikis SeerTebulma Statebma araerTi politikuri nabiji gadadges saqarTvelos mxaradasaWerad.

amerikis SeerTebulma Statebma axali prezidentis uflebamosilebis dawyebamde, 2009 wlis 9 ianvars saqarTvelosTan gaaforma “strategiuli partniorobis Sesaxeb qartia”, sadac ZiriTadi aqcentebi swored qveynis usafrTxoebis ganmtkicebaze gakeTda. 2009 wlis 22 ivniss ki am qartiis principebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT erToblivi sabWo dafuZnda.

2008 wlis 19 agvistos, NATO-s sagareo saqmeTa ministrebis Sexvedris dros, ruseT-saqarTvelos Soris mimdinare saomari moqmedebebis fonze, aliansma miiRo gadawyvetileba nato-saqarTvelos komisiis daarsebis Sesaxeb. aRniSnulTan dakavSirebiT urTierTgagebis memorandums 2008 wlis 15 seqtembers moewera xeli. komisiis mizania saqarTvelos aliansSi gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebiT buqarestis samitze miRebuli gadawyvetilebebisa da saqarTvelosTvis mokavSireTa mxardaWeris koordinacia.

irakli sesiaSvili

jaris politikuri sworeba

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nato-saqarTvelos komisiis pirveli sxdoma 2008 wlis dekemberSi gaimarTa, sadac Crdilo-atlantikurma aliansma saqarTvelos yovelwliuri erovnuli samoqmedo gegma SesTavaza, romelic Semdgom Sexvedrebze iqna damtkicebuli.

2009 wlis maisSi briuselSi gamarTul natos partniori qveynebis generaluri Stabebis xelmZRvanelebis Sexvedraze gadawyda avRaneTis samSvidobo operaciebSi qarTuli qvedanayofebis monawileoba.

2009 wlis seqtembridan amerikelma samxero instruqtorebma avRaneTSi natos samSvidobo operaciaSi monawileobisaTvis qarTveli samxedro mosamsaxureebis wvrTna daiwyes. aRniSnuli programiT, 31-e qveiTi batalioni eqvsTvian intensiur momzadebas gadis, ris Semdegac aRniSnuli qvedanayofi monawileobas miiRebs natos egidiT warmoebul ISAF-is operaciaSi, romelsac SeerTebuli Statebis sazRvao qveiTi jaris saeqspedicio brigada uxelmZRvanelebs. qarTveli samxedroebis gawvrTnaSi monawileobas 69 amerikeli samxedro instruqtori iRebs. wvrTnisas yuradReba gamaxvilebulia im sakiTxebze, romlebic uzrunvelyofen qarTveli samxedroebis efeqtur urTierTobas partnior samxedro mosamsaxureebTan. qarTveli samxedroebis jgufis avRaneTSi gamgzavreba 2010 wlis pirvel naxevarSi igegmeba.

am fonze saqarTvelos SeiaraRebuyli Zalebis ganviTareba erT-erT mTavar prioritetad unda gansazRvruliyo arsebuli safrTxeebisa Tu Cvens partniorebTan strategiuli TanamSromlobis gaTvaliswinebiT. saqarTvelos prezidentisa da xelisuflebis mier bolo erTi wlis manZilze gadadgmulma nabijebma, erTi SexedviT, sakmaod gaurkveveli situacia da perspeqtivebi Seqmna Cveni qveynis jaris ganviTarebasTan mimarTebaSi. Tavad is faqti, rom saqarTvelos Tavdacvis saministros biujeti 2008 wlis biujetTan SedarebiT 42% Semcirda1, mianiSnebs xelisuflebis axal midgomas SeiaraRebuli Zalebis mimarT.

1. saqarTvelos Tavdacvis saministros 2008 wlis biujeti Seadgenda 1,547,183.1 aTas lars, xolo 2009 wlis biujeti ganisazRvra 897,000.00 aTasi lariT. wyaro: http://mod.gov.ge/index.php?page=-10&Id=10&lang=0. Tavdacvis saministros 2010 wlis biujetis gegma am periodisTvis gansazRvrulia 750,000.00 aTasi lariT.

jaris mimarT xelisuflebis axali midgomajaris mSenebloba vardebis revoluciiT mosuli xelisuflebis prioriteti iyo, romelic 2008 wlis agvistomde iTvleboda xelisuflebis mier ganxorcielebul yvelaze warmatebul “proeqtad”. saqarTvelos SeiaraRebul ZalebSi ganxorcielebuli reformebiTa da warmatebebiT saqarTvelos prezidenti yovelTvis amayobda da, Sesabamisad, mudmivad apelirebda Cveni jaris Zlierebaze. prezidentis am midgomas Tavisi miznebi hqonda, kerZod:

1. jaris mSeneblobaze kolosaluri Tanxebi ixarjeboda da, cxadia, prezidents garkveuli angariSvaldebuleba gaaCnda, rom am Tanxebis gankargvis adekvaturi Sedegebi dgeboda, Tundac vizualur doneze;

2. jari prezidentis savizito baraTad gadaiqca im fonze, rodesac sazogadoebis ndoba jarisadmi maRali iyo, rac politikuri TvalsazrisiT prezitentisTvis momgebiani iyo Sesabamisi politikuri miznebisTvis;

3. jari da Sesabamisi samxedro potenciali, Tavis mxriv, ganixileboda konfliqtebis mogvarebisa da teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenis erT-erT saSualebad, rac sazogadoebaSi pozitiur molodinebs qmnida. es ukanaskneli ki prezident saakaSvilisTvis damatebiTi politikuri qulebis momtani iyo, raTa saqme bolomde mieyvana, anu gaemyarebina da gaexangrZlivebina sakuTari Zalaufleba uwyveti pozitiuri molodinebis pirobebSi.

Tu prezidentisa da xelisuflebis zemoaRniSnul midgomas ukve jaris funqcionalur datvirTvasa da mniSvnelobaSi ganvixilebT, mivalT daskvnamde, rom jari, es iyo, erTi mxriv, teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenis erT-erTi iaraRi, meore mxriv ki, prezidentisa da mmarTveli politikuri Zalis - nacionaluri moZraobis politikuri mdgradobis garantia.2008 wlis agvistos omma da Sesabamisma Sedegebma gamoiwvies rogorc jaris zemoaRniSnuli funqciebis, aseve xelisuflebisTvis politikuri dividendebis momtani elementis Tvisobrivi maCveneblis dakargva. agvistos omSi gancdilma marcxma,

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faqtobrivad, uperspeqtivo gaxada momavalSi am konfliqtebis mogvarebis Zalismieri variantebi. Sesabamisad, jarma zepatriotuli funqcia dakarga. Tumca gaCnda jaris Zveli, deklarirebuli da realuri funqcia – qveynis Tavdacva, rac ufro rTul amocanas warmoadgens, Tuki arsebul safrTxeebsa da Cvens SesaZleblobebs gaviTvaliswinebT. Cveni qveynis SeiaraRebuli Zalebis gaZliereba qveynis usafrTxoebis realurad uzrunvelyofad, pirvel rigSi, dakavSirebulia kolosalur saxsrebTan, rac qveynas ar gaaCnia. amis resursis arsebobis SemTvevaSic, kiTxvis niSnis qveS dgeba Cveni jaris gaZliereba Sesabamisi mxardaWeris gareSe, radgan civilizebul samyaros ukve gaaCnia garkveuli SiSi da TviTSezRudva, gaaZlieros saqarTvelos samxedro Zalebi imdenad, rom is morigi konfliqtis gamRvivebeli aRmoCndes. amdenad, jaris funqcia – daicvas qveyana ruseTis morigi Tavdasxmisgan, nawilobrivia, ramdenadac Cveni qveynis usafrTxoebis ZiriTadi garantiebia saerTaSoriso politikuri viTarebidan gamomdinareobs.

krizisul viTarebaSi gamoCnda, rom saqarTvelos xelisuflebis warmatebuli proeqti – “regionSi yvelaze Zlieri da Tanamedrove samxedro Zala”, rogorc mas xelisuflebis politikuri liderebi afasebdnen, realurad miTi aRmoCnda. qarTuli jaris mSeneblobisa da ganviTarebisTvis gaxarjulma Tanxebma Sedegi ara Tu ver gamoiRo, aramed aRmoCnda, rom jarSi Cadebuli resursi, faqtobrivad, wyalSi iqna gadayrili; aRmoCnda, rom Cven gvyavs mSvidobianobis periodSi kargad Cacmul-daxuruli da aRWurvili jari, romelsac ukve krizisul viTarebaSi, risTvisac is aris realurad Seqmnili, ver an ar viyenebT. adgilobrivma da saerTaSoriso eqspertebma aseTi ufunqcio jaris arsebobis mTavar mizezad araefeqturi mmarTveloba da xelisuflebis araswori Tavdacvis politika daasaxeles. yovelive es ki niSnavs, rom prezidentma dakarga jari, rogorc warmatebuli proeqti, aseve rogorc savizito baraTi xelisuflebis politikuri warmatebisa.

yvelafer amas daemata isic, rom, Tuki jari ase Tu ise prosaxelisuflebo socialur jgufad miiCneoda, radgan Tavad jarSic iyo Seqmnili ganwyoba, rom maT qveyanaSi realurad hqondaT funqcionaluri datvirTva patriotuli miznebis miRwevis saqmeSi, omSi gancdili marcxis Semdeg, samxedro mosamsaxureTa poziciebi xelisuflebis mimarT Seicvala. bevri samxedro piri mivida im daskvnamde, rom omi waago xelisuflebam da rom jars ubralod

brZolis saSualeba ar misces imis gamo, rom xelisuflebas warmodgena ar hqonda, rogor emarTa jari da ewarmoebina omi mtris winaaRmdeg. xolo rodesac pasuxismgeblobis sakiTxi dadga, xelisuflebam marcxi jariskacebsa da umcross oficrebs daakisra. es ganwyoba xelisuflebisTvis cnobilia, ramac garkevuli safrTxeebic gaaCina politikuri stabilurobisTvis. maT Soris, xelisuflebaSi gaCnda SiSi jaris mimarT.

Sesabamisad, daskvnis saxiT, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqarTvelos prezidentisa da xelisuflebis midgoma jarisadmi 2008 wlis Semdgom radikalurad Seicvala; prezidentma dakarga jari Tavisi funqcionaluri mniSvnelobiTa da molodinebiT, iseve, rogorc misi politikuri mdgradobis garantori, xolo jaris aRdgenili funqcia – qveynis dacva, jer kidev bundovania. yvelaferTan erTad ki xelisuflebaSi gaCnda jaris mimarT SiSi da undobloba. am SiSis daZleva SesaZlebelia, Tuki ici, rogor marTo da rogor waiyvano jari sistemuri ganviTarebisken, Tumca saqarTvelos prezidents savaraudod amis unar-Cvevebi ar gaaCnia, rasac amtkicebs kidec bolo erTi wlis manZilze Tavdacvis sistemaSi ganviTarebuli procesebi.

omis qarTuli sindromi - gmirebis Tu dezertirebis armia?agvistos omSi qarTuli jaris marcxis mizezi bevri iyo da Sesabamisi dakvnebis gamotana xelisuflebisa da sazogadoebis pirdapiri valdebulebaa. es valdebuleba bunebrivad warmoqmnili iyo gansakuTrebiT saomari moqmedebebis dawyebidan, pirveli wuTebidan da Sesabamis pasuxismgeblobis ganawilebis valdebulebac TiToeul CvenTaganze modioda.

jer kidev 11 agvistos prezidenti mixeil saakaSvili eris konsolidaciis aucileblobaze saubrobda, Tumca, rogorc Cans, Tavad xelisufleba da prezidenti am konsolidaciisTvis moumzadebeli aRmoCnda. maSin, rodesac mteri qveynis SigniT iyo SemoWrili da safrTxeebi katastrofuli siswrafiT izrdeboda yvela mimarTulebiT, maSin, rodesac TiToeuli jariskacis samsaxuri marTlac rom qveynis gadarCenis winapiroba iyo, xelisuflebam mizanSewonilad

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miiCnia daCqarebuli wesiT gamoevlina omSi damarcxebis “damnaSaveebi”. xelisuflebam ixelmZRvanela principiT “oms igeben politikosebi, xolo ageben jariskacebi” da “eris konsolidaciis procesSi”, realurad ki - sakuTari politikuri pasuxismgeblobisgan Tavis daRwevis mizniT, pirveli “damnaSaveebis” Zebna jarSi daiwyo.

14 agvistos samxedro xelmZRvanelebis brZanebis safuZvelze daiwyo samxedro mosamsaxureTa aRricxvianoba, ris Sedegad aRmoCnda, rom jari, romelic, rogorc prezidenti acxadebda, maqsimalurad organizebulad icavda dedaqalaqs, daSlili da upatronod iyo mitovebuli. ramdenime aTasi samxedro mosamsaxure (rTulia zusti cifris dasaxeleba) ar aRmoCnda dislokaciis adgilze, ris gamoc samarTlebrivi TvalsazrisiT sruliad marTebulad maTi saqmeebi gadaeca samxedro policias Semdgomi reagirebisTvis. daiwyo samxedro mosamsaxureebis dakaveba dezertirobisa da sxva sisxlis samarTlis Tu disciplinuri samarTaldarRvevis Sesabamisi danaSaulebis braldebiT.

samarTalwarmoebis pirvelive etapze xelisufleba aRmoCnda seriozuli dilemis winaSe: dislokaciis adgilze ar aRmoCnda ramdenime aTasi samxedro mosamsaxure, rac ukve qmnida imis safrTxes, rom prezidentis politikuri gancxadeba “gmirebis armiis” Sesaxeb “dezertirebis armiad” gardaqmniliyo, rac ukve daayenebda, erTi mxriv, Tavad prezidentis politikur pasuxismgeblobas, romelic mudmivad apelirebda warmatebuli jaris mSeneblobaze, meore mxriv ki, obieqturad warmoaCenda Tavdacvis saministros uunaro mmarTvelobas. Sesabamisad, miRebul iqna politikuri gadawyvetileba da, faqtobrivad, samarTlebrivi safuZvlis gareSe, sisxlis samarTlis pasuxismgebloba daakisres pirvel etapze dakavebul 60-mde samxedro pirs, xolo danarCen samxedro mosamsaxureebs sisxlis samarTlebrivi pasuxismgebloba Seucvales administraciuli sasjelebiT da maTi umravlesoba “uRirsi saqacielis gamo” daiTxovnes samxedro samsaxuridan. kidev erTxel xazi unda gavusvaT im garemoebas, rom es yvelaferi xdeboda maSin, rodesac mtrisgan momdinare safrTxeebi progresirebis procesSi iyo da, vimeoreb, TiToeuli jariskacis samsaxuri samSoblos

gadarCenis winapiroba iyo.

sazogadoebisa da arasamTavrobo seqtoris aqtiuri muSaobiT, xelisufleba da prezidenti iZulebuli gaxda dapatimrebuli pirebi gaeTavisuflebina amnistiisa Tu Sewyalebis gziT, Tumca es yvelaferi ganxorcielda dagvianebulad, maSin, rodesac Tavad samxedroebSic ki gaCnda seriozuli protesti yofil TanamosamsaxureTa mimarT arasamarTliani midgomis gamo.

sakadro politikawlebis manZilze Tavdacvis saministroSi sakadro politika erT-erT yvelaze seriozul problemas warmoadgenda, ramac nawilobriv ganapiroba qveynis Tavdacvis sistemis ganviTarebis araswori politika. Sesabamisad miRebuli, rig SemTxvevaSi katastrofuli gadawyvetilebebi, maT Soris agvistos omis warmoqmnisa da Sedegebis TvalsazrisiT, swored araswori sakadro politikis pirdapiri gamoxatuleba iyo.

2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdgom dRis wesrigSi bunebrivad dadga sakiTxi morigi samTavrobo karuselisa, romelic gancdili marcxis fonze, cxadia, gverds ver auvlida Tavdacvis saministros. 2008 wlis 6 dekembers Tanamdebobidan daTxovnil iqnen Tavdacvis ministri, daviT kezeraSvili da gaerTianebuli Stabis ufrosi brigadis generali zaza gogava. Sesabamisi cvlilebebis safuZvelze Tavdacvis ministrad dainiSna saqarTvelos yofili elCi amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi vasil sixaruliZe, xolo gaerTianebuli Stabis xelmZRvanelad _ vicepolkovniki vladimer CaCibaia.

ganxorcielebuli cvlilebebis logika mdgomareobda, erTi mxriv, gancdili marcxis Sedegad Tavdacvis sistemaSi axali sisxlis gadasxmaSi, xolo, meore mxriv, zogadad Tavdacvis sistemisa da jaris strategiuli ganviTarebis mimarT midgomis SecvlaSi. aq aseve gasaTvaliswinebelia 2008 wlis dekemberSi SeerTebul StatebTan gaformebuli qartia strategiuli partniorobis Sesaxeb, romelic, Tavis mxriv, axal da gansakuTrebul midgomebsa da TanamSromlobas moiTxovda SeerTebul StatebTan. am mxriv vasil sixaruliZisa da aleqsandre CaCibaias kandidaturebi erTob logikuri da misaRebi iyo rogorc Seqmnili

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viTarebis, aseve saerTaSoriso urTierTobis mocemulobis gaTvaliswinebiT. amave procesis nawili iyo is, rom Tavdacvis ministris yofili moadgile baTu quTelia dainiSna amerikaSi saqarTvelos elCad.

Tuki zemoaRniSnul sakadro politikas ufro siRrmiseulad gavanalizebT, mivalT, Cemi azriT, im daskvnamde, rom Tavdacvis ministris kandidaturis SerCeva saqarTvelos prezidentisTvis zogadad yvelaze rTul saqmes warmoadgens, gansakuTrebiT ki agvistos omSi marcxis Semdgom. amitom SeirCa iseTi piri, romlis reputacia misaRebia dasavleTSi, xolo saqarTveloSi mis mimarT pozicia faqtiobrivad sazogadoebaSi gamokveTili ar iyo. aseve aqvs axsna vladimer CaCibais daniSvnas gaerTianebuli Stabis xelomZRvanelad, ramdenadac mas, misi winamorbedisgan gansxvavebiT, aqvs umaRlesi samxedro ganaTleba, maT Soris SeerTebul StatebSi, aris kargi organizatori da reformebis iniciatori, rac gansakuTrebiT sWirdeboda qveyanas omis Semdgom.

axalma Tavdacvis ministrma warmoadgina ministris xedva, ramac saerTo jamSi pozitiuri STabeWdileba warmoqmna eqspertebSi. programaSi warmodgenili problemebi da ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi wina msgavsi dokumetebisgan gansxvavebiT, iyo realisturi da ganxorcielebadi. aqcenti keTdeboda grZelvadian ganviTarebaze da ara naCqarev Sedegebze. prioritetebs Soris dasaxelda Cveni qveynisTvis haersawinaaRmdego da tanksawinaaRmdego TavdacviTi SesaZleblobis gazrda, rac logikurad efuZneboda agvistos omis mware gakveTilebs. gansakuTrebuli aRniSvnis Rirsia samxedro mosamsaxureTa ganaTlebisa da karieruli sistemis danergvis prioritetad dasaxeleba, rac sazogadoebaSi qmnida imis molodins, rom am sistemis ganviTarebis mimarT midgomebi SeiZleba Secvliliyo da is Tanmimdevrul nabijebs daqvemdebareboda.

Tumca wyali male aimRvra morigi sakadro cvlilebiT, rodesac sazogadoebisTvis odiozuri figura, sasjelarsrulebis departamentis yofili xelmZRvaneli baCo axalaia dainiSna Tavdacvis ministris moadgiled.

Cveni dasavleli kolegebisTvis Zneli warmosadgenia, rogor SeuZlia erTma sakadro

cvlilebam gamoiwvios problemebi mTlian sistemaSi, Tumca Sesabamisma Sedegebma kidev erTxel aCvena, rom Cvenda samwuxarod, saqarTvelos saxelisuflebo mmarTveloba efuZneba ara sistemur midgomas, aramed personebsa da maTi politikuri erTgulebis niSas.

aRniSnulma sakadro cvlilebam pirvel uaryofiT Sedegad is gamoiRo, rom vladimer CaCibaiam, gaerTianebuli Stabis xelmZRvanelma, Tanamdeboba datova piradi gancxadebis safuZvelze da is gadayvanil iqna Tavdacvis ministris moadgiled, anu dainiSna samoqalaqo politikur Tanamdebobaze; da es maSin, rodesac umaRlesi samxedro profesionali kadrebis deficits, pirvel rigSi, swored samxedro Zalebi ganicdian. Tumca, vfiqrob, CaCibaias gaerTianebuli Stabis xelmZRvaneobidan wasvlis mizezi met yuradRebas moiTxovs, ramdenadac Sesabamisi mizezebi iwvevs samxedro-samoqalaqo urTierTobaTa ZiriTadi principebis rRvevas. Tu ra moxda da ratom gadadga b-ni CaCibaia, am kiTxvebze oficialuri pasuxi, ra Tqma unda, ar arsebobs da es Cveni qveynis xelisuflebis Cveuli pasuxismgeblobis gamoxatulebaa.

mravali cnobili mkvlevari da mecnieri saubrobs im zRvarze, romelic gadis samoqalaqo da samxedro mmarTvelobas Soris. es zRvari iqna darRveuli maSin, rodesac samoqalaqo demokratiulma kontrolma miiRo viwro politikuri kontrolis formebi da prezidentis mxridan maRali ndobis mandatiT aRWurvilma baCo axalaiam moiTxova meti uflebamosileba, vidre mas es xelewifeboda an ekuTvnoda. ufro martivad rom vTqvaT, samoqalaqo mmarTvelebi Caerivnen samxedroebis saqmeSi, ramac gamoiwvia konfliqti. prezidentma ki, rogorc mas sCvevia, gaakeTa arCevani viwro politikur kontrolis sasargeblod da profesionalizmis sapirispirod. vladimer CaCibaia gadadga gaerTianebuli Stabis ufrosis Tanamdebobidan, mis nacvlad dainiSna general-maiori devi WankotaZe, xolo CaCibaias wasvlas rom ar mohyoloda protesti rogorc sazogadoebisgan, aseve samxedro pirTa Soris, is Tavdacvis ministris moadgiled dainiSna.TavisTavad zemoaRniSnuli sakadro cvlilebebi ver Seqmnida saukeTeso garemos Tavdacvis uwyebis xelmZRvanel pirTa urTierTobebSi, rac adre Tu gvian bunebrivad warmoqmnida axali sakadro

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gadajgufebis aucileblobas. momdevno sakadro cvlielba ukve 2009 wlis agvistoSi ganxorcielda, Tumca yovelive amas win uZRoda maisis movlenebi – samxedro bunti muxrovanis nawilSi, razec qvemoT calke TavSi visaubrebT.

jer kidev 2009 wlis ivnis-ivlisSi presaSi gaCnda informacia daviT sixaruliZis Tavdacvis ministris Tanamdebobidan wasvlis survilis Sesaxeb, rac sabolood dadasturda kidec ukve agvistoSi. am cvlilebis ganxorcielebisTvis prezidenti, albaT, mzad iyo sixaruliZis gadadgomis Sesaxeb gancxadebisTanave, Tumca Tavad prezidentisTvisac uxerxuli aRmoCndeboda, rom naqebi ministrebi Tavdacvis ministrobas 1 welsac ki ver uZleben. amas emateboda rTuli Sidapolitikuri viTareba da ukve prezidentisTvis Cveulad qceuli deficituri kandidatura Tavdacvis ministris postisTvis. rogorc am periodSi qarTuli media ityobineboda, prezidentma ramdenime pirs SesTavaza Tavdacvis ministris portfeli, Tumca yoveli maTganisgan miiRo “ultimatumi” viwro politikuri kontrolisgan gaTavisuflebis Sesaxeb, anu kandidatebi iyvnen Tanaxmani, daekavebinaT ministris Tanamdeboba im SemTxvevaSi, Tuki ministris moadgile baCo axalaia datovebda Tavdacvis saministros. am ukanasknels, savaraudod, prezidenti ver Seelia imis gamo, rom, rogorc Cans, axalaiam marTlac iTamaSa sasargeblo roli e.w. jarisadmi saxelisuflebo SiSis neitralizaciis saqmeSi. saboloo jamSi, prezidenti mivida misTvis logikur daskvnamde da arCevani swored baCo axalaiaze gaakeTa, riTac, Cemi azriT, kidev erTxel xazi gausva mis midgomas jaris ganviTarebasTan mimarTebaSi, imoqmeda ra sakuTari Zalauflebis SenarCunebisa da gamyarebis mizniT jarze viwro politikuri kontrolis dawesebis gaformebiT.

rac Seexeba baCo axalaias, rogorc Tavdacvis ministrs, misi daniSvnis faqts saerTaSoriso mediac gamoexmaura, ramdenadac is ara erTxel moxvedrila adamianis uflebaTa darRvevis faqtebTan dakavSirebiT sxvadasxva saerTaSoriso angariSSi da, cxadia, mediis gansakuTrebuli yuradReba miipyro saqarTvelos Tavdacvis axalma ministrma, gansakuTrebiT ruseT-saqarTvelos omis Semdgomi viTarebis gaTvaliswinebiT. The Faster Times-is Jurnalistma, vil danbarma, Tavis publikaciaSi axal ministrze dawera:

“mas imdenive samxedro gamocdileba aqvs ramdenic dalai lamas”, da es marTlac rom realobas Seesabameba, Tuki mis ganaTlebasa Tu biografias gadavxedavT.

rac Seexeba baCo axalaias daniSvnas am postze da mis zegavlenas qveynis politikur garemoze, vfiqrob, rom am ukanaskneli cvlilebiT sakmaod rTuli viTareba Seiqmna Zalovan uwyebebs Soris politikuri balansis TvalsazrisiT. araerTi politikosisa Tu eqspertis SefasebiT, qveyanaSi erT-erTi yvelaze gavleniani figuraa vano merabiSvili, romelic xelmZRvanelobs saqarTvelos Sinagan saqmeTa saministros, sadac aseve Tavmoyrilia uSiSroebisa da sxva specialuri samsaxurebis Zalovani uwyebebi. miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTvelos mTavrobaSi ar arseboben ministrebi sxva politikuri partiebidan, nawilobriv SenarCunebuli iyo politikuri balansi Zalovan uwyebebs Soris politikuri avtoritetebis xarjze. irakli oqruaSvili, daviT kezeraSvili Tu daviT sixaruliZe garkveulwilad iyvnen vano merabiSvilis politikuri Zalauflebis mabalansirebelni, xolo baCo axalaias daniSvniT, romelic vano merabiSvilis “kacad” iTvleba, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom es balansi or Zalovan monstrs Soris gaqra da mTeli Zalaufleba vano merabiSvilis xelSi moeqca. Tuki imasac gaviTvaliswinebT, rom mosalodneli krizisebis warmoqmnis SemTxvevaSi gadwyvetilebebs Sesabamisi dabali kompetenciis gamo ver miiRebs Tavdacvis ministri, aramed Sinagan saqmeTa ministri, am ukanasknelis de faqto srul Zalauflebas gaaformebs.

kidev erTi sakadro cvlileba, ramac sazogadoebis yuradReba miipyro, aris is, rom saqarTvelos gvardiis departamentis ufrosad dainiSna samoqalaqo piri, politikosi, parlamentis yofili wevri maSin, rodesac gvardiis departamenti aris gaerTianebuli Stabis struqturuli erTeuli da mTel msoflioSi is samxedro Tanamdebobaa. aRniSnuli sakadro cvlileba, Cemi azriT, kidev erTxel mianiSnebs mmarTveli politikuri elitis dabal kompetencias Tavdacvisa da usafrTxoebis sferoSi, romelTac miaCniaT, rom samxedro sferos marTva umjobesia ara profesionali kadrebiTa da sistemuri midgomebiT, aramed kargi menejmentis saSualebiT. Tumca aRniSvnis Rirsia, rom departamentis ufrosma sazogadoebasTan urTierTobis

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sakiTxebSi pozitiuri midgomebi gamoavlina, rac zogadad Tavdacvis uwyebisTvis arabunebrivia.

daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom ara erTi adgilobrivi Tu saerTaSoriso eqspertis mier Tavdacvis saministroSi xSiri sakadro cvlilebebis erT-erT seriozul Secdomad dasaxelebis miuxedavad, es procesi 2008 wlis agvistos Semdgomac gagrZelda: erTi wlis manZilze orjer Seicvala Tavdacvis ministri da gaerTianebuli Stabis ufrosi. Tuki imasac gaviTvaliswinebT, rom, rogorc wesi, sakadro cvlilebebs xSirad Tan sdevs axali ministrebis mxridan saministros sakuTari gundiT dakompleqteba, romelTac Tavdacvis sferoSi dabali kompetencia gaaCniaT, yovelive es aferxebs Tavdacvis uwyebisa da SeiaraRebuli Zalebis Tanmimdevrul da efeqtur ganviTarebas; metic, xSir SemTxvevaSi ministrebis cvlasTan erTad icvleba saministros ganviTarebis politika, rac am uwyebisTvis zedmetad mgrZnobiarea. viTvaliswinebT ra im garemoebas, rom arsebuli safrTxeebi da riskebi sakmaod maRalia, SesaZleblobebi - Zalzed SezRuduli da arasakmarisi, xolo xelisuflebas Tavdacvis arc adekvaturi politika da arc profesionali kadrebi gaaCnia, mivdivarT im gancdamde, rom dResdReobiT qveyana TavisTavad imyofeba krizisul viTarebaSi, romelsac Tavdacvis minimaluri SesaZlebloba ar gaaCnia.

Tavdacvisa da usafrTxoebis politikadamoukidebel eqspertTa klubis mier gamocemul pirvel krebulSi agvistos krizisis Sesaxeb eqpertebma Seafases Tavdacvisa da usafrTxoebis politikis susti mxareebi, romelTac nawilobriv ganapirobes saqarTvelos dabali mzaoba krizisul viTarebaSi efeqturad moqmedebisaTvis. maT Soris, Cems naSromSi “saqarTvelos Tavdacvis sistemaSi ganviTarebuli procesebi 2004 wlidan, 2008 wlis agvistoSi omis ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT”, Sevexe Tavdacvisa da usafrTxoebis politikis ganmsazRvrel ramdenime dokuments, romelTa arasworma politikurma formulirebam adekvaturad ver gansazRvra rogorc qveynis winaSe arsebuli safrTxebi da gamowvevebi, aseve Sesabamisad

ver ganapiroba Cveni qveynis moqmedebis SesaZleblobebi krizisul viTarebaSi.

omis Semdgom erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi, maSin, rodesac Sesabamisi mocemuloba mniSvnelovnad Seicvala, gaCnda axali safrTxeebi faqtobrivad yvela mimarTulebiT, xolo arsebuli safrTxeebi da gamowvevebi, aseve riskebi aSkarad da sagrZnoblad gaizarda, xelisuflebam ar an ver moaxdina adekvaturi politikis asaxva iseT dokumentebSi, rogorebicaa: saqarTvelos erovnuli usafrTxoebis koncefcia, safrTxeebis Sefasebis dokumenti, erovnuli samxedro strategia da sxva. Sesabamisad, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom Cveni qveyana dRes imyofeba Tavdacvis politikis Camouyalibeblobis pirobebSi arsebuli safrTxeebis winaSe, rac, TavisTavad, faqtobrivad, SeuZlebels xdis qveynis TavdacviTi politikis gansazRvras mokle da grZelvadiani perspeqtivebis TvalsazrisiT. Cveni saxelmwifosgan gansxvavebiT ki, amave periodSi Cveni qveynis mimarT mtrulad ganwyobilma qveyanam, Cveni teritoriebis okupantma sakmaod seriozuli cvlilebebi ganaxorciela mis samxedro-politikur dokumetebSi. am mxriv Cveni xelisuflebis umoqmedoba seriozuli riskis qveS ayenebs TiTqmis yvela sferoSi ganviTarebis perspeqtivebs, maT Soris saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi, rac, SeiZleba iTqvas, erT-erTi ZiriTadi komponentia qveyanaSi usafrTxoebisa da stabilurobis uzrunvelsayofad.

zemoaRniSnuli dokumentebis proeqtebis momzadeba da koordinacia evaleba saqarTvelos erovnuli uSiSroebis sabWos, romelic, faqtia, ver axerxebs sakuTari funqcia-movaleobis Sesrulebas. Sesabamisi mizezebi mravalmxrivia, rac kidev erTxel miuTiTebs, rom saWiroa am sistemis seriozuli reformireba da ganviTareba. rogorc cnobilia, sxvadasxva politikurma jgufma da eqspertma am mxriv Tavisi xedvebi warmoadgines, Tumca, samwuxarod, yovelive amas Semdgomi moqmedebebi ar mohyolia. dRis wesrigSi kvlavac dgas krizisul situaciebSi Sesabamisi marTvis centris Camoyalibebis aucilebloba, romelic koordinacias gauwevs usafrTxoebis sistemebs krizisul viTarebaSi. garda amisa, saqarTvelos kanonmdeblobiT aseve ar aris mkafiod Camoyalibebuli da gansazRvruli krizisul viTarebaSi gadawyvetilebebis mimRebi organoebisa da

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Sesabamisi pasuxismgeblobebis sakiTxebi, rac saerTo jamSi sakmaod bundovans xdis krizisul viTarebaSi qveynis Tavdacvisa da usafrTxoebis politikis uzrunvelyofas, mmarTvisa da reagirebis SesaZleblobebs.

usafrTxoebis sistemis erT-erTi Semadgeneli nawilia aseve samoqalaqo Tavdacva, romelic maT Soris moicavs qveynis infrastruqturis mowyobas Sesabamisi safrTxeebis gaTvaliswinebiT. rig SemTxvevebSi ukve xorcieldeba ramdenime aseuli milioni laris proeqtebi, maT Soris magistralebisa da xidebis mSenebloba, axali sacxovrebeli punqtebis gaxsna iseT raionebsa da geografiul erTeulebSi, romlebic maRali safrTxeebisa da riskebis arealSi imyofebian. am mxriv, rogorc Cans, xelisuflebis xedva saerTod ar arsebobs, rac isev da isev xelisuflebis mxridan Tavdacvisa da usafrTxoebis politikis arasistemur midgomaze miuTiTebs. yovelive es ki qveyanas adre Tu gvian Zalian Zviri daujdeba, es iqneba pirdapiri gamowvevebi Tu arsebuli sistemis cvlilebebTan dakavSirebuli xarjebi.

rac Seexeba Tavdacvis sferoSi ganxorcielebul sakanonmdeblo iniciativebs, am mxriv, mdgomareoba SedarebiT normaluria. Tavdacvis sferoSi 2009 welsac ganxorcielda 150-mde sakanonmdeblo cvlileba, riTac gagrZelda Tavdacvis sferos sakanonmdeblo regulireba, rac misasalmebelia. Tumca kvlavac seriozul problemad rCeba samxedro-politikuri da samxedro-strategiuli xedvebis Camoyalibeba.

maSin, rodesac 2008 wlis agvistos krizisma yvelas TvalnaTliv dagvanaxa seriozuli problemebi samxedro sarezervo sistemaSi, maSin, rodesac xelisufleba mudmivad xazs usvamda mosalodnel safrTxeebsa da Cveni qveynis TiToeuli moqalaqis mzadyofnis aucileblobas, xelisuflebam, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom am mimarTulebiT Sesabamisi nabijebi ar an ver gadadga. omidan mxolod erTi wlis Semdgom axladdaniSnulma gvardiis departamentis xelmZRvanelma, romelic, rogorc zemoT iTqva, samoqalaqo piria da romelsac aranairi codna da gamocdileba samxedro sferoSi ar gaaCnia, warmoadgina axali samxedro sarezervo sistemis proeqti. warmodgenil proeqtTan mimarTebaSi kvlavac aris azrTa sxvadasxvaoba da kritikuli SeniSvnebi.

Tavdacvis saministrom garkveuli muSaoba daiwyo erovnuli samxedro strategiis dokumentze, Tumca es procesi mimdinareobs neli tempebiT da, rig SemTxvevebSi, seriozuli xarvezebiT. Tumca am SemTxvevaSi, albaT, isic unda gaviTvalswinoT, rom maSin, rodesac usafrTxoebis koncefcia jer ar Secvlila, rTulia Tavdacvis saministrom damoukideblad gansazRvros samxedro safrTxeebi. am mxriv Tavdacvis saministro garkveul samoqalaqo eqpertebTan TanamSromlobs kidec, Tumca kvlavac Tavs aridebs, Cemi azriT, profesional jgufebTan urTierTobas, romlebic loialurad ver uyureben xelisuflebis politikas, Tumca mzad arian am mxriv TanamSromlobisaTvis. es aris im politikuri kompleqsis gameoreba, ramac Tavis droze, Cemi azriT, yovlad miuRebeli samxedro sarezervo sistemis Seqmna ganapiroba.

kvlavac aRniSvnis Rirsia qveyanaSi samoqalaqo demokratiuli kontrolis dabali done, ufro swored ki – misi faqtobrivi ararseboba. rTulia ar mosTxovo pasuxi Cvens parlamentis deputatebs maSin, rodesac Tavdacvisa da usafrTxoebis sferoSi uamravi problemaa, maTi reaqcia ki nulis tolia. saqarTvelos Tavdacvis saministro kvlavac inarCunebs misTvis Cveul gaumWvirvalobis principebs, raSic nawilobriv parlamentic uwyobs xels, romelic ar aris Sesabamisi pasuxismgeblobiTa da avtoritetiT aRWurvili, ganaxorcielos efeqturi kontroli Tavdacvis sferoSi.

daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom ganvlili weli Tavdacvisa da usafrTxoebis politikis formirebis sferoSi, faqtobrivad, usargeblo iyo da es yovelive safrTxeebisa da gamowvevebis mzard procesSi. Tumca amis mizezi ar yofila mxolod postkonfliqturi periodi da Sesabamisi problemebi. saqarTveloSi 2003 wlidan mosulma xelisuflebam dRemde ver moaxerxa Tavdacvisa da usafrTxoebis erTiani politikis SemuSaveba da misi Tanmimdevruli aRsruleba. Tavdacvis saministroSi xSir sakadro cvlilebebs mudmivad Tan sdevda Sesabamisi politikuri Tu samxedro xelmZRvanelebis maTeuli xedvebis realizeba Tavdacvis sistemaSi, rac garkveulwilad bunebrivic iyo imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom Tavad saxelmwifos erTiani politika ar gaaCnda da Tu garkveuli saxiT is iqmneboda, is araadekvaturi iyo realobasTan. xelisuflebam uari ganacxada

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mxari daeWira usafrTxoebis sistemis depolitizaciisTvis da moexdina am sistemaSi saerTo erovnuli Zalebis konsolidireba. Sesabamisad, bunebrivad, es sistemebi politizirebuli gaxda da usafrTxoebis sistemis marTva gadaecaT politikuri niSniT erTgul liderebs da ara profesionalebs. am rTul viTarebas daemata isic, rom qveyanaSi ar arsebobs usafrTxoebis seqtroze politikuri, demokratiuli kontrolis kultura an imis survili, rom aseTi kontroli saerTod dawesdes. sapirispirod ikveTeba xelisuflebis politikuri upasuxismgebloba aRiaros Secdomebi da am Secdomebis ganmeorebisgan Tavis aridebis mizniT gadadgas adekvaturi nabijebi usafrTxoebis sistemis civilur CarCoebSi ganviTarebisTvis.

muxrovanis “amboxi” _ morigi Savi laqa saqarTvelos istoriaSiagvistos tragikuli omidan 9 Tvec ar iyo gasuli, rom qarTul saxelmwifoSi morigi samxedro bunti Sedga – muxrovanis samxedro nawilSi dislocirebulma satanko batalionma daumorCilebloba gamoacxada. erTi SexedviT, Tavdacvis sistemaSi mimdinare procesebi TiTqosda ar qmnida imis safuZvels, rom SesaZlebeli yofiliyo samxedro mosamsaxureebis ajanyeba; samxedro mosamsaxureebs 2004 wlidan mudmivad gansakuTrebul yuradRebas uTmobda xelisufleba, Tavdacvis saministros bolo 5 wlis manZilze hqonda arnaxuli biujeti Tavisi istoriis manZilze. Sesabamisad, jari uzrunvelyofili iyo yvela saWiro saSualebiT da, wina samxedro amboxebisgan gansxvavebiT, protests socialuri da ekonomiuri safuZvlebi ubralode ver eqneboda. rac Seexeba samxedroebis mentalur mdgomareobas, aqac SeiZleba iTqvas, rom erTi SexedviT Ria protesti ar unda dafiqsirebuliyo; samxedro meTaurTa umravlesobas aqvs kargi ganaTleba miRebuli, maT Soris dasavleTSi, rac, Tavis mxriv, nawilobriv aris imis garantia, rom samxedroebs kargad esmiT, Tu ras niSnavs samxedro amboxi qveynisTvis da ra Sedegebis momtani SeiZleba iyo is rogorc qveynis imijisTvis, aseve uSualod maTTvis, rogorc

samxedroebisTvis. garda amisa, ra Tqma unda, TiToeul jariskacs ar daviwyebia am mxriv Cvens qveyanaSi ukve Semdgari amoboxebebi da maTi Sedegebi, aseve gancdili marcxi ruseTTan agvistoSi da, cxadia, am yvelafris fonze morigi areuloba, Tanac jarSi, ar iqneboda swori nabiji maTi mxridan. Tumca, faqtia, rom amboxi Sedga da Cveni qveynis istorias is Sav laqad aucileblad darCeba miuxedavad imisa, Tu ra saxis simarTle dgas am amboxis ukan.

amboxis warmoqmnidan pirvelive wuTebSi da am etapzec sazogadoebaSi gaCnda Zalian bevri kiTxva, romelTa umravlesoba pasuxgaucemelia, zog SemTxvevaSi ki xelisuflebis mxridan mizanmimarTulad dafarulic. amitom am statiaSi Sevecdebi sazogadoebas Sevaxseno rig SemTxvevebSi aralogikuri moqmedebebi Cveni xelisuflebis, romlis uSualo valdebulebaa, ar dauSvas amboxi da prevenciulad aRkveTos is zogadad gamomwvevi mizezebis gaTvaliswinebiT.

rogorc sasamarTlo procesidan irkveva, samxedro mosamsaxureTa ukmayofilebisa da garkveuli protestis Sesaxeb xelisuflebisTvis kargad iyo cnobili da mosalodneli protestis gamoxatulobis gaTvlac sirTules ar warmoadgenda; metic, 5 maisamde, rodesac Riad gamoCnda daumorCilebloba muxrovanSi dislocirebuli satanko batalionis mxridan, samarTaldamcavi organoebisTvis ukve cnobili iyo meamboxTa vinaoba, amboxis savaraudo placdarma da konkretuli detalebi, Tumca xelisuflebas ar gadaudgams am amboxebis aRkveTisaTvis arcerTi Semxvedri nabiji.

Semdgomi procesi da movlenebi nawilobriv mianiSnebs imas, rom xelisufleba akontrolebda rogorc uSualod amboxebis process, aseve misi SesaZlo ganviTarebis situacias. savaraudod, e.w. meamboxeTa Soris iyvnen specsamsaxuris warmomadgenlebi, romlebic ara Tu flobdnen informacias mimdinare movlenebis Sesaxeb, aramed Tavad marTavdnen procesebsac ki. am SemTxvevaSi Cndeba mTavari kiTxva, ratom ar aRkveTa xelisuflebam daumorCileblobis an amboxis faqti manam, sanam is aqtiur fazaSi Sevidoda da mniSvnelovnad Selaxavda qarTuli armiisa da saxelmwifos imijs? am kiTxvaze pasuxi pirvel rigSi qveyanaSi mimdinare Sidapolitikur krizissa da sagareo

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faqtorebs ukavSirdeba. 2009 wlis aprilis TveSi dawyebuli politikuri saprotesto aqciebi aqtiur fazaSi iyo Sesuli da am Zalebis amboxebasTan dakavSireba, ra Tqma unda, momgebiani iqneboda xelisuflebis argumentebis gasamyareblad, mware istoriul faqtebTan paralelebis gavliT. aqve aseve momgebiani iyo maTi ruseTTan dakavSireba da es Temac amboxebis dawyebidan pirvelive wuTebSi farTod iqna gamoyenebuli qveynis pirveli pirebis mier, rodesac gaJRerda e.w. operatiuli informacia imis Sesaxeb, rom amboxebulTa erT-erTi mTavari amocana iyo, natos wvrTvebis CaSla da rusebTan erTad dedaqalaqisken SeteviTi samxedro operaciis wamowyeba. am ori sazogadoebisTvis miuRebeli miznis gaerTianeba da maTi kavSiri opoziciuri politikur ZalebTan da moZraobasTan, cxadia, mniSvnelovan uaryofiT damokidebulebebs aRZravda sazogadoebaSi, rac xelisuflebis Zalauflebis ganmtkicebis erT-erT xelSemwyob faqtors warmoadgenda. es asec moxda kidec, Tumca mxolod garkveuli drois monakveTSi, manam, sanam xelisuflebam am scenarSi bevri aSkara Secdoma ar dauSva, kerZod:

xelisuflebis mier operatiul 1. informaciaze dayrdnobiT gakeTebuli prognozebi ar emTxveoda realobas da xelisuflebis adekvaturobas - emoqmeda gamowvevebis Sesabamisad;

amboxebis gamoxatuloba, formebi da 2. maTi moqmedeba, aseve amboxebis aRmkveTi operacia aSkarad araTavsebadi iyo procesTan da miuTiTebda dadgmuli speqtaklis niSnebze;

gaqceul meamboxebulTa dakavebis spec. 3. operacia da sagamoZiebo moqmedebebi xSir SemTxvevebSi iyo arakanonieri meTodebiT ganxorcielebuli da aqac SeiniSneboda piar-teqnologiebis niSnebi;

Tavad sasamarTlo procesze gamoikveTa 4. bevri iseTi faqti, romelic, erTi mxriv, miuTiTebs Tavis droze qveynis pirveli pirebis mier gakeTebuli politikur SefasebebTan araTavsebadobas, meore mxriv ki, zogierTi dakavebulis aSkara udanaSaulobas.

aseT fonze xelisufleba aRmoCnda rTuli dilemis winaSe – daicvas aqamde gakeTebuli politikuri Sefasebebis principuloba, rac aSkarad araTavsebadi iqneba obieqtur realobasTan, Tu aRiaros daSvebuli

Secdomebi, romelic Tavis mxriv politikuri marcxis elementebs Seicavs. Tumca am amboxebisa Tu scenaris avtorebs samwuxarod sul daaviwydaT is mTavari Rirebuleba, rasac hqvia Cveni qveynis imiji, Cveni jaris Rirseba da ubralod am qveynis moqalaqeebi, romelTa interesebis ugulvebelyofis xarjze kvlavac grZeldeba brZola ZalauflebisTvis.

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I. zogadi informacia saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvris Taobaze

1991 wlis 21 dekembris oficialuri informaciiT, saqarTvelos teritoriis farTobi Seadgens 69, 7 aTas kv.km-s. saqarTvelos sazRvris sigrZe Seadgens 1 968 kilometrs (1995 wlis monacemebi).

• sazRvaosazRvari280km.

• saxmeleTosazRvari1688km.

• saxmeleTosazRvrissigrZemaRalmTianregionSi 1 100,4 km.

• mTianregionSi138km.

• dabal-mTianregionSi450km.

saqarTvelos saxelmwifo sazRvris sigrZe ruseTis federciasTan 825,4 km. aqedan 775 km _ maRalmTiani monakveTia.ruseTis federaciis regionebTan saqarTvelos sazRvris sigrZe Semdegia:

krasnodaris mxare (afxazeTis monakveTi) 1. _ 76 km.

yaraCai-CerqezeTis respublika 2. (afxazeTis monakveTi) _ 175 km.

yabardo-balyareTis respublika 3. (svaneTis monakveTi) _ 114 km.

Crdilo-oseTis respublika (raWis, 4. e.w. samxreT oseTis, yazbegis raionis monakveTi) _ 166 km.

inguSeTis respublika (yazbegisa da 5. duSeTis raionis monakveTi) _ 62,4 km.

CeCneTis respublika (axmetis raioni _ 6. TuSeTi, duSeTis raioni _ xevsureTis monakveTi) _ 84 km.

daRestnis respublika (lagodexis, 7. yvarelis, Telavis, axmetis raionebis monakveTi) _ 148 km.

sabWoTa periodSi saqarTvelo ruseTis federacias ukavSirdeboda kavkasiis qedis perimetrze sxvadasxva profilis mqone uReltexilebiT da gadasasvlelebiT.

krasnodaris mxaresTan _ 1 centraluri 1. trasa (fsous gadasasvleli). 1 uReltexili (moqmedebs maisidan-noembramde).

yaraCai-CerqezeTis respublikasTan _ 2. 12 gadasasvlelia. ZiriTadad moqmedebs maisi, ivnisi _ noembramde. yvela gadasasvleli saWapanea, garda maruxis uReltexilisa, romelzec gadasvla SesaZlebeli iyo maRali gamavlianobis transportiT.

yabardo-balyareTis respublikasTan _ 8 3. gadasasvlelia, moqmedebis vada 3-5 Tve saWapane transportiT.

Crdilo-oseTis respublikasTan _ 12 4. gadasasvleli. rokis gvirabi da larsis gadasasvleli moqmedebs mTeli wlis ganmavlobaSi. mamisonis uReltexili moqmedebs 5-6 Tvis ganmavlobaSi (maRali gamavlianobis transporti). danarCeni gadasasvlelebi moqmedia 3-5 Tvis manZilze saWapane transportisaTvis.

CeCneTisa da inguSeTis respublikebTan 5. _ 4 gadasasvleli. yvela maTgani moqmedia 5-6 Tvis ganmavlobaSi saWapane transportisaTvis.

daRestnis respublikasTan _ 6 6. gadasasvleli. moqmedebda 5-6 Tve saWapane transportisaTvis. gamonakliss warmoadgenda beSTa_axalsoflis monakveTi, romliTac maRali gamavlobis transporti gadaadgildeboda.

mamuka areSiZe

saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvari - arsebuli mdgomareoba da safrTxeebi

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saqarTvelos da ruseTs mTlianobaSi akavSirebda 44 gadasasvleli, uReltexili da gza.

unda aRiniSnos, rom saqarTvelosa da ruseTis federaciis administraciuli sazRvari xSirad icvleboda sxvadasxva politikuri Tu ekonomikuri mosazrebiT. iyo SemTxvevebi, rodesac saqarTvelos teritoria gaizarda CrdiloeT kavkasiis mimarTulebiT (1944 wels `xalxebis didi gadasaxlebis~ gamo) da momxdara piriqiT, rodesac amave mosazrebebiT aRniSuli teritoriebi ukan daubrunda Tavis mflobels.

aRsaniSnavia isic, rom XIX saukunis ruseTis imperiis rukebis mixedviT saqarTvelos miekuTvneboda zogierTi teritoria CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi (mag. kavkasiis qedis CrdiloeTiT - raWis mimdebare teritoria, mTa-TuSeTis, xevsureTis da xevis mimdebare teritoriebi).

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg ruseTis xelisufleba yvelafers akeTebda imisTvis, rom sazRvari dafiqsirebuliyo kavkasiis qedis gaswvriv, saqarTvelos mTianeTis kontrolis perspeqtiviT.

II mdgomareoba gasuli saukunis 90-iani wlebidan _ `vardebis revoluciamde~

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdgomma movlenebma, ruseTis xelisuflebis survilma, ar daekarga kontroli samxreT kavkasiaze, ganapiroba separatistuli regionebis gaCena. afxazeTis da e.w. samxreT oseTis saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvris monakveTi oficialuri Tbilisis kontrolis miRma darCa. am periodSi saqarTvelo_ruseTis sazRvarTan dakavSirebiT Tavi iCina Semdegma problemebma:

ruseTis xelisuflebis winaaRmdegoba 1. da saqarTvelos xelisuflebis uniaToba sazRvris demarkaciis sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT (miuxedavad mravalwliani msjelobisa, sazRvris demarkaciis sakiTxi dRemde gaurkvevelia);

separatistuli regionebis sazRvris 2. monakveTTa ukontroloba;

kontrabandis farTod gaSlili 3. qseli, romelSic CarTulni iyvnen

rogorc sazRvris mimdebare regionis macxovreblebi, aseve sxvadasxva rangis maRalCinosnebi. separatistuli regionebis teritoriaze arsebuli sazRvris monakveTis garda, aseTi ram xdeboda `larsis~ saguSagoze, mamisonis uReltexilze da TiTqmis gauval beSTa-axalsoflis SemaerTebel gzaze (magaliTi: 90-iani wlebis meore naxevarSi arsebuli e.w. `spirtis bumi~).sasazRvro punqtebisa da daucveli sasazRvro zonebis gavliT saqarTveloSi Semoedineboda narkotikuli saSualebebi da Semodiodnen sxvadasxva juris avantiuristebi.

saqarTvelos xelisuflebis uprincipo 4. pozicia sazRvris dacvis sakiTxebSi;

magaliTad: saqarTvelom dakarga teritoria yvarlis raionSi, romelic 1985 wels droebiT gaicvala yizlaris saZovrebze. ssrk-s daSlis Semdeg qarTveli mesaqonleebi iZulebulni gaxdnen, daetovebinaT aRniSnuli teritoria, xolo teritoria yvarlis raionSi ruseTs darCa. daudevrobiT daikarga xevsureTSi sofel fiWvnaris mimdebare teritoria (daaxloebiT 10 kv.km).larsis sasazRvro punqtis araswori ganlagebis gamo daikarga teritoriis ramdenime kv.km. (ix. qvemoT).

III mdgomareoba 2004 wlidan _ dRemde

am periodSi mdgomareoba ukeTesobisken ar Secvlila. piriqiT, katastrofuli xasiaTi miiRo.

1. 2008 wlis agvistos movlenebis Semdeg daikarga saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvris, saqarTvelos mier kontrolirebadi mniSvnelovani monakveTi _ kodoris xeoba.

2. qarTveli mesazRvreebi iZulebulni gaxdnen, daetovebinaT mamisonis uReltexilis sakontrolo punqti da 20 km-iT qveynis siRrmeSi ukan daexiaT.

3. TuSeTSi, diklos mTis mimdebare teritoriaze ruseTma TviTneburad 3 km-iT gadmowia sazRvari da miitaca 24 kv.km.

2004 wlis Semdeg ruseTis xelisuflebisaTvis

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naTeli gaxda, rom saqarTvelos nato-sken ltolvam Seuqcevadi xasiaTi miiRo. aman ganapiroba maTi gaaqtiureba. saqarTvelos xelisuflebis, xSir SemTxvevaSi, gauazrebelma politikam da saomarma ritorikam ruseTs xelebi gauxsna saqarTvelos teritoriis nawilis eqspansiisa da sazRvrispira regionebis mitacebisaken. imisaTvis, raTa naTeli gaxdes ruseTis federaciis xelisuflebis Semdgomi qmedebebi, saWiroa, gavecnoT gegmas, romelic jer kidev sabWoTa kavSiris dros Seiqmna.

IV. ruseTis savaraudo gegma saqarTvelos CrdiloeT sazRvarTan dakavSirebiT sxvadasxva wyaros monacemebiT ruseTi forsirebulad iwyebs sabWoTa kavSiris Tavdacvis saministros generaluri Stabis TavdacviTi gegmis realizacias, romelic nato-sTan savaraudo omis SemTxvevisaTvis Seiqmna.

samxreT mimarTulebidan sabWoTa kavSirze Setevis placdarmad ganixileboda nato-s wevri qveyana TurqeTi. amitom am mimarTulebis dasacavad Seiqmna gegma, romelic moicavda 3 TavdacviT zRudes:

I. saxelmwifo sazRvris perimetrze (dRevandeli saqarTvelo-TurqeTis sazRvari).

I I . kavkasiis qedis gaswvriv.

I I I . siRrmeSi, rostovis olqisa da stavropolis mxaris teritoriaze.

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlisa da saqarTvelos nato-ze orientirebis Semdeg, ruseTis generaluri Stabis savaraudo gadawyvetilebiT, meore TavdacviTi zRude avtomaturad iqca ZiriTad zRuded, Sesabamisad man SeiZina gansakuTrebuli funqcia. aRsaniSnavia, rom am zRudis gasamagreblad gamoyenebulia is principebi, romelic zemoT naxseneb gegmaSia moyvanili. kerZod: kavkasiis qedze gamavali zRudis srulyofili dacvisaTvis saWiroa, samxreTis mimarTulebiT daaxloebiT 40 km-iani zolis kontroli, romlisganac 20 km. qedidan samxreTiT, ganekuTvneba aqtiuri dacvis sivrces, Semdgomi 20 km. ki pasiuri dacvisaa.

swored aqedan gamomdinareobs ruseTis aqtiuroba kavkasiis qedis mimdebare

saqarTvelos teritoriis xelSi Casagdebad. am miznis misaRwevad ruseTma gasuli saukunis 90-iani wlebidan dRemde ganaxorciela Semdegi RonisZiebebi:

separatistuli regionebis mxardaWeriT, 1. xelSi Caigdo maT teritoriaze gamavali sazRvris monakveTebi;

2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdgom ruseTis 2. kontrolis qveS aRmoCnda kodoris xeoba da mamisonis uReltexilis mimdebare teritoria;

saqarTvelo-ruseTis administraciul 3. sazRvarze arsebuli 44 gadasasvlelidan 24-s mTlianad ruseTi akontrolebs.

kavkasiis qedze arsebuli yvela 4. strategiuli simaRle ruseTis xelSia;

sazRvris mimdebare teritoriebze 5. zogierT adgilas moxda sazRvris TviTneburi gadmoweva saqarTvelos siRrmeSi (mamisonis uReltexilTan, larsis saguSagosTan, TuSeTSi diklos mTasTan, xevsureTSi _ sofel fiWvnarTan);

ruseTis qmedebis Sedegad Seicvala 6. demografiuli suraTi sazRvris mimdebare teritoriaze.

1989 wlis monacemebiT, am monakveTze ganlagebuli iyo 260 sofeli. arsebobda gansaxlebis 9 ubani. dRes 5 ubans mTlianad akontrolebs ruseTis federacia, xolo danarCen 4-s saqarTvelo, ramac TavisTavad demografiuli suraTis cvlileba gamoiwvia. aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTvelos mier kontrolirebad mTis soflebSic (raWa, duSeTis raioni, yazbegis raioni) savaraudo xifaTis Tu socialur-ekonomikuri siduxWiris gamo SeimCneva mosaxleobis migracia barisaken, rac ufro asustebs saqarTvelos sazRvris dacvis sistemas.;

sabWoTa kavSiris generaluri Stabis mier Seqmnili gegma, kavkasiis qedis perimetrze da 40 km-ian Tavdacvis sivrceSi, iTvaliswinebs sagzao infrastruqturis mSeneblobas, rogorc vertikaluri mimarTulebiT, aseve qedis paralelurad.

Cveni azriT, am gegmis realizacias emsaxureba Semdegi proeqtebi:

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axali, 270 km-iani gza yaraCai-1. CerqezeTidan, maruxis uReltexilis gavliT _ afxazeTisaken (am gzis yaraCai-CerqezeTis monakveTi ukve mzadaa);

ukve aSenebuli gza kalaki _ mamisoni 2. (Crdilo oseTis teritoriaze) - es gza 18 km-iania da igegmeba misi gagrZeleba javisaken (aqedan gamomdinare gasagebia qarTveli mesazRvereebis iZuleba, mamisonis uReltexilidan ukan daexiaT saqarTvelos siRrmeSi 20 km-ze da e.w. `nikolozis xidis~ afeTqebis faqti);

gegmaSi arsebuli rokis gvirabis 3. restavracia da axali gvirabebis gaWra;

mimdinareobs mosamzadebeli samuSaoebi 4. CeCneTis, iTum-kalis raionidan Satilamde gamavali gzis aRsadgenad;

damTavrebulia daRestanis, boTlixis 5. raionidan gzis mSenebloba yvarelis raionamde (es gza piradad v. putinis miTiTebiT aSenda);

intensiurad mimdinareobs cxinvali 6. _ axalgoris gzis mSenebloba. gzis saproeqto profilidan da xarisxidan gamomdinare, SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom gza axalgoridan kavkasionis qedis paralelurad gagrZeldeba yazbegis raionisaken.

am varaudis safuZvels gvaZlevs is, rom Crdilo oseTSi dawyebulia seriozuli kampania yazbegis raionis Crdilo oseTisaTvis mikuTvnebis Taobaze. unda iTqvas, rom am kampanias dRiTidRe ufro meti maStabi eZleva da masSi ukve Riad CaerTvnen CrdiloeT oseTis parlamentis xelmZRvanelebi (gansakuTrebiT aqtiuria ruseTis dumis deputati CrdiloeT oseTidan arsen faZaevi).

Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom sabWoTa kavSiris droindeli samxreT oseTis avtonomiuri olqis administraciuli sazRvari gadis yazbegis raionTan, saqarTvelos samxedro gzis mimdebare teritoriaze, advili warmosadgenia, rogori xifaTis Semcvelia aseTi tipis proeqtebi;

kavkasiis qedis gaswvriv paraleluri, savaraudo gzebis mSeneblobis gegma SeiZleba ganvixiloT yazbegis raionisa da mimdebare

xevsureTis magaliTze: sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg saqarTvelosa da ruseTis mTavrobebs Soris molaparakebis safuZvelze demarkaciamde saxelmwifo sazRvari gadioda am ori qveynis damakavSirebeli gvirabis SuagulSi. gvirabis mimdebare teritoriaze saqarTvelos mxridan e.w `eSmakis xidsa~ da saforTifikacio nageboba `dzotis~ midamoebSi gaixsna sakontrolo gamSvebi punqti `larsis~ saxelwodebiT (unda iTqvas, rom ssrk-s droindeli miwaTsargeblobis rukebis mixedviT, saqarTvelos gvirabs iqiT ekuTvnoda kidev 100 kv.km.).

SemdgomSi, gaurkveveli mosazrebebis gamo, 90-iani wlebis SuaSi, saqarTvelos xelisuflebam sasazRvro punqti gadmowia 850 m-iT ukan. es RonisZieba droebiTi iyo, magram, samwuxarod, dRemde ase darCa. am monakveTs daerqva neitraluri teritoria, romelic orive mxares erToblivad unda gaekontrolebina, Tumca amJamad kontroli mTlianad ruseTis xelTaa.

ruseTis miznebis ukeT gasagebad sakmarisia davxedoT rukas. qarTveli mesazRvreebis dislokaciis yofili adgili, strategiuli TvalsazrisiT, Zalian momgebiani iyo, is akontrolebda SemovliT gzebs Tergis aqeT _ gveleTamde da myinvaris mimarTulebiT mimaval gergeTis SemovliT gzas, aseve xevsureTisaken (arxotisken) mimaval gzas, romelic jariaxis xeobis paralelurad miemarTeba. Tu vivaraudebT, rom am mimarTulebis xelSi CagdebiT ruseTi momavalSi Tavis gavlenis qveS moaqcevs juTa_arxoti_Satili_xonesWala (TuSeTi) mimarTulebas, maSin gasagebi gaxdeba maT mier gadadgmuli nabiji. gansakuTrebul Sefasebas imsaxurebs saqarTvelos maSindeli xelisuflebis danaSaulebrivi qmedeba.

es mimarTuleba dRes mxolod saWapane transportis gadasaadgilebladaa vargisi, magram momavalSi SeiZleba rTuli profilis samanqano gzis aSeneba (am mimarTulebis vertikalurad CeCneTidan Sendeba iTum-kaledan gamomavali gza). Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom es teritoriebi praqtikulad mosaxleobis gareSea darCenili, ioli misaxvedria, rom ruseTisaTvis nakleb problematuria Tavisi amocanis Sesruleba.

calke saubris Temaa yazbegis raionis mosaxleobis mdgomareoba. dRes iq 1 500 mosaxlemdea darCenili da klebis tendencia

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grZeldeba. es ganpirobebulia rogorc socialur-ekonomikuri mdgomareobiT, ise sxva faqtorebiTac. erT-erTi faqtoria narkomaniis maRali maCvenebeli. narkotikebi ZirTadad Semodis ruseTis teritoriis sasazRvro sofel Cmis mosaxleobis meSveobiT. miuxedavad imisa, rom bolo wlebis ganmavlobaSi sazRvari `myarad~ aris Caketili, narko-realizatorebi Tavisuflad gadaadgildebian neitralur zonaSi (romelsac, SegaxsenebT, rusebi akontroleben). es gvafiqrebinebs, rom narkotikebis Semotana saqarTvelos teritoriaze garkveuli gegmis nawilia. ruseTis federacia Tavis eqspansionistur politikas xSir SemTxvevaSi niRbavs ekonomikuri Tu turistuli proeqtebiT:

mamisonis uReltexilis mimdebare 1. teritoriaze igegmeba zamTris kurortis aSeneba, romelic ruseTis yvelaze didi samTo kurorti iqneba (35 saTxilamuro trasa). am kurortis proeqti demonstrirebuli iyo 2006 wels krasnodaris ekonomikur forumze da maRali Sefaseba daimsaxura. kurorti Sendeba CrdiloeT oseTis, zaramagis nakrZalis teritoriaze. swored am proeqtis safarqveS garemontda kalaki _ mamisonis gza. proeqtis saxelwodebaa _ `mamisoni~.

kodoris xeobaSi Seiqmna saxelmwifo parki 2. (direqtori r. dbari), romelic, gegmis mixedviT, turistuli trasebiT unda daukavSirdes CrdiloeT kavkasias.

zogierTi wyaros informaciiT, 3. daRestanSi mzaddeba saTxilamuro kurortis proeqti saqarTvelos mimdebare teritoriaze.

im SemTxvevaSi, Tu saqarTvelos xelisuflebam saerTaSoriso TanamegobrobasTan erTad ar moaxdina saswrafo reagireba Seqmnil mdgomareobaze, viTareba SeiZleba uaRresad damZimdes.

gasagebia saqarTvelos xelisuflebis survili, ar moxdes konfrontacia russa da qarTvel mesazRvreebis Soris, raTa ruseTs ar mieces samxedro Zalis gamoyenebis sababi (magaliTad, mamisonis uReltexilze momxdari faqti), magram mdgomareoba sagangaSoa da aqtiur kontr-RonisZiebebs moiTxovs.

45

damo

ukid

ebel eqsper

tT

a klu

biruseTis mier saqarTveloze

ganxorcielebuli samxedro agresiis

Semdeg erT welze meti gavida. am periodSi

saqarTveloSi ganviTarda ekonomikuri

krizisi, romelsac aqvs rogorc erovnuli

fesvebi, ise globaluri finansuri krizisis

zegavleniTac aris ganpirobebuli. am

periodSi saqarTvelos mTavrobis mier

daSvebul iqna axali Secdomebic, rac uwinares

yovlisa dakavSirebulia mis mier SemuSavebul

da gatarebul antikrizisul RonisZiebebTan.

qvemoT calk-calkea ganxiluli rogorc

axali gamowvevebi, ise Zveli Secdomebis1∗

gamosworebis kuTxiT arsebuli mdgomareoba.

ruseT-saqarTvelos

omis finansuri

“kompensacia”

2008 wlis agvistoSi ruseT-saqarTvelos

xuTdRiani omis Semdeg, globaluri finansuri

krizisis gaTvaliswinebiT saqarTvelos winaSe

axali ekonomikuri gamowvevebi dadga. kerZod,

esenia – omiT miyenebuli ekonomikuri

zaralis likvidacia, sabanko krizisis Tavidan

1 Zveli Secdomebis ganxilvisas gamoyenebulia avtoris mier Catarebuli analitikuri gamokvlevis “saqarTvelos ekonomika: Secdomebi, safrTxeebi, maTi daZlevis gzebi” Sedegebi, romelic Sesulia damoukidebel eqspertTa klubis mier momzadebl krebulSi “2008 wlis krizisi saqarTveloSi: winapiroba, realoba, perspeqtiva”.

acileba, inflaciis SedarebiT maRali donis

Semdgomi zrdis prevencia, erovnuli valutis

– laris gacvliTi kursis stabilurobis

SenarCuneba.

2008 wlis 22 oqtombers q. briuselSi

mowyobil donorTa konferenciaze miRebul

iqna gadawyvetileba, romlis Tanaxmadac

saqarTvelom finansuri daxmarebis saxiT

SeiZleba miiRos 4,55 miliardi aSS dolari,

saidanac 2 mlrd grantia, 2,55 mlrd ki

krediti. saqarTvelom am daxmarebis miReba

daiwyo 2008 wels da es procesi 2010 wlis

CaTvliT unda gagrZeldes. am daxmarebis

mniSvnelovani nawili unda wavides im uSualo

ekonomikuri zaralis aRmosafxvrelad, rac

saqarTvelos rusuli samxedro agresiis

Sedegad miadga, nawili ki qveynis ekonomikur

reabilitacias moxmardeba.

yuradsaRebia, rom 4,55 mlrd aSS dolaris

daxmareba gaTvaliswinebulia, rogorc

saxelmwifo, ise kerZo (ganaskuTrebiT sabanko)

seqtorze.

rusuli agresiis Sedegad konfliqturi

regionebidan iZulebiT gadaadgilebul

pirTa socialur problemebTan dakavSirebiT

saqarTvelos mTavroba iZulebuli Seiqmna

gaewia damatebiTi xarjebi. uwinares yovlisa,

mTavroba am adamianebs droebiT sacxov re be l

saxlebs uSe ne bs, rac erTis mxriv eko no mi kas

acocx lebs – Cndeba damatebiTi moTxovna sam-

vladimer papava

omisSemdgomi saqarTvelos

ekonomika: axali gamowvevebi da Zveli Secdomebi

46

Se neb lo masalebze, saq m de ba mu Sa xe li, mag ram

mSe neb lo baze ga we u li xar je bi saboloo jamSi

mokle vadian periodSi ma inc in f la ci u ria,

radganac am saxlebs mTavroba yidulobs da

ara kerZo pirebi. miuxedavad amisa, mTavro bas

sxva arCevani ar aqvs.

omis Semdgom saqarTveloSi pirdapiri

ucxouri investiciebis Semodineba Semcirda,

rac, uwinares yovlisa, imiTaa gamowveuli,

rom globaluri finansuri krizisis

pirobebSi investorebi cdiloben ufro

metad usafrTxo qveynebSi ganaxorcielon

investiciebi, vidre es rusuli agresiis qveS

myofi saqarTveloa. globaluri finasuri

krizisis pirobebSi mniSvnelovnad Semcirda

sazRvargareT mcxovrebi qarTvelebis mier

Tavis naTesavebTan gadmoricxuli fuladi

gzavnilebic. Tu ki imasac gaviTvaliswinebT,

rom saqarTvelos ukiduresad uaryofiTi

sagareo savaWiro balansi aqvs, sadac importi

eqspots oTxjer aRemateba, gasakviri ar

unda iyos, rom laris gacvliTi kursis

stabilurobis SenarCunebas safrTxe

daemuqra.

agvistos omis Semdeg, saerTaSoriso

savaluto fondma saqarTvelos

makroekonomikuri stabilurobis

SesanarCuneblad sarezervo kreditis

programiT (stand-By Arrangement) 750 mln aSS

dolaris krediti gamouyo, romlidanac 250

mln ukve 2008 wlis Semodgomaze Cairicxa

erovnuli bankis rezervebSi. 2009 wlis 6

agvistos imave programis farglebSi fondma

saqarTvelos damatebiT gamouyo 420 mln aSS

dolari, xolo Tavad programis xangrZlivoba

ganisazRvra 2011 wli 14 ivnisamde. es Tanxebi

zemoxsenebul 4,55 mlrd dolarTan erTad

aris imis garantia, rom saqarTvelom Tavidan

aicilos savaluti krizisi.

sayuradReboa, rom 4,55 mlrd aSS dolaris

sruli odenobiT miReba damokidebulia

imaze, Tu, erTi mxriv, ramdenad efeqtianad

da mizanmimarTulad iqneba aTvisebuli ukve

gamoyofili Tanxebi, da meore mxriv – Tu

ramdenad warmatebulad gaarTmevs Tavs

saqarTvelos mTavroba molaparakebaTa

momdevno raundebs donor qveynebTan

da donor organizaciebTan, maT mier

gacxadebuli Tanxebis misaRebad. saqarTvelos

mTavrobis sasaxelod unda iTqvas, rom

jer-jerobiT warmatebiT arTmevs Tavs

donorebTan molaparakebebs, da, sabednierod,

raime Seferxebas xsenebuli finansuri

daxmarebis miRebaSi adgili ar aqvs.

ekonomikuri krizisi da “omis paradoqsi”

saqarTvelos finansuri bazris

ganuviTareblobam xeli Seuwyo imas, rom

globaluri finansuri krizisis zegavlena

ar yofiliyo imdenad mZime, rom mas gamoewvia

saqarTvelos ekonomikis ngrevis procesi.

imavdroulad imis Tqmac, rom globalur

finansur kriziss aranairi zegavlena ar

hqonia saqarTvelos ekonomikaze, ar aris

gamarTlebuli. kerZod, Semcirda ucxouri

pirdapiri investiciebis moculoba, iklo

sazRvargareT mcxovreb saqarTvelos

moqalaqeTa mier ganxorcielebulma

fuladma gzavnilebma, xolo saqarTvelos

bankebisaTvis naklebad xelmisawvdomi gaxda

evropuli finansuri bazrebidan SedarebiT

dabalprocentiani sesxebi, maTi globaluri

krizisiT gamowveuli gaZvirebis gamo.

aranakleb mniSvnelovania imis xazgasma, rom

saqarTveloSi mimdinare ekonomikur kriziss

aqvs wminda erovnuli fesvebic. maTgan

umTavresi ki Semdegia:

qveyanaSi Semosuli ucxouri pirdapiri 1.

investiciebis udidesi nawili

koncentrirebuli iyo sakuTrebis

uflebis SeZenaze, maT Soris

privatizaciis gziT, da naklebad iyo

47

damo

ukid

ebel eqsper

tT

a klu

bi

gankuTvnili ekonomikis realuri

seqtoris ganviTarebaze. Sedegad Seiqmna

aSkara disbalansi qveyanaSi Semosul

finansur resurssa da ekonomikis

realuri seqtoris ganviTarebas Soris.

mTavrobis mxridan samSeneblo biznesze 2.

maregulirebeli funqciis gauqmebis

pirobebSi ekonomikis am seqtorSi

araerTma kompaniam daiwyo “finansuri

piramidis” principiT saqmianoba, roca

Zveli valdebulebis Sesasruleblad

aRebuli safasuri ukve gaxarjulia, da

kompania iRebs axal valdebulebas, raTa

am gziT Seavsos xsenebuli danaklisi.

adre Tu gvian “finansuri piramida”

aucileblad CamoiSleba xolme.

saqarTvelos bankebis udidesi nawili 3.

evropis safinanso bazrebze mopovebuli

SedarebiT iafi sakredito resursis

mniSvnelovan nawils, rogorc wesi,

ganaTavsebda samSeneblo biznessa

da samomxmareblo sayofacxovrebo

teqnikis bazarze. amiT, erTis mxriv,

xels uwyobda zemoxsenebuli “finansuri

piramidis” meqnizmis SenarCunebas,

xolo, meores mxriv, akreditebda ara

erovnul ekonomikas, aramed imports.

es ukanaskneli, ki aZlierebda arsebul

disbalanss qveyanaSi Semosul finansur

resurssa da ekonomikis realuri

seqtoris ganviTarebas Soris.

ekonomikuri krizisi uSualod aisaxa mTliani

Siga produqtis zrdaze. kerZod, 2009 wlis

pirvel kvartalSi wina wlis analogiur

periodTan SedarebiT is Semcirda 5,9%-iT,

meoreSi – 10,1%-iT, xolo wlis bolos,

rogorc amas adasturebs saerTaSoriso

savaluto fondi mosalodnelia mTliani Siga

produqtis 4%-ani kleba.

ekonomikis vardna uSualod aisaxa

sagadasaxado Semosavlebis klebazec, ris

gamoc 2009 wlis saxelmwifo biujetSi

2009 wlis ivlisSi Sevida cvlileba da

sagadasaxado Semosavlebi Semcirda 500

mln lariT, rac dagegmili sagadasaxado

Semosavlebis 10,5%-s Seadgens. Tumca biujeti

mainc gaizarda 312 mln lariT, rac ZiriTadad

ganpirobebulia xsenebuli ucxouri

daxmarebebiT.

saqarTvelos bankebs 2009 wlis gazafxulze

daudgaT 500 mln aSS dolaris odenobis

sagareo valis dabrunebis vada, risi resursic

sakuTriv am bankebs ar gaaCndaT. qveyanas

sabanko krizisi Tavidan aacila xsenebulma

ucxourma daxmarebebma, saidanac bankebma

miiRes 636 mln aSS dolari, rac ara marto eyo

sagareo valdebulebebis gastumrebas, aramed

bankebs mieca stabiluribisaTvis aucilebeli

finansuri resursi.

is, rom saqarTvelos ekonomika inarCunebs

mdgradobas es, uwinares yovlisa, donorTa

daxmarebis damsaxurebaa, risi miRebac qveyanas

“gauadvila” rusulma agresiam. omi, da Tanac

wagebuli, TavisTavad uaryofiTi movlenaa,

magram rom ara is, saeWvoa, rom saqarTvelos

globaluri finansuri krizisis pirobebSi

mieRwia mniSvnelovani finansuri daxmarebis

operatiulad miRebisaTvis, rac qmnis

qveynis ekonomikis mdgradobis safuZvels.

maSasadame saxezea e.w. “omis paradoqsi”,

roca saqarTvelosaTvis Zalzed uaryofiTma

movlenam – omma mogvca saSualeba Tavidan

agvecilebina ekonomikuri kolafsi.

antikrizisuli RonisZiebebi

globaluri finansuri krizisis pirobebSi

sxvadasxva qveynis mTavroba, rogorc

wesi, cdilobs SeimuSavos antikrizisuli

programa. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom vardebis

revoluciis Semdeg saqarTvelos mTavrobis

arcerT Semadgenlobas ar Seswevda unari

ekonomikis ganviTarebis raime programa

moemzadebina, gasakviri ar unda iyos, rom arc

krizisul viTarebaSi qveyanas, samwuxarod, ar

48

gaaCnia raime programa.

is, risi gakeTebac SeZlo mTavrobam es aris e.w.

“axali finansuri paketi”, romelic ZiriTadad

sabanko da samSeneblo seqtorebs moicavs.

sabanko seqtorTan mimarTebaSi gadaidga

urTierTsawinaaRmdego nabijebi. kerZod,

erTis mxriv, bankebis maregulirebeli

normativebis SemsubuqebiT saqarTvelos

erovnuli banki xels uwyobs qveyanaSi

damatebiTi sakredito resursis gaCenas,

xolo meore mxriv, im mizeziT, rom krizisis

pirobebSi bankebs uWirT kreditebis

ganTavseba, mTavrobam miiRo gadawyvetileba

260 mln laris saxazino valdebulebaTa

emisiis Sesaxeb. sxva sityvebiT, mTavroba

260 mln lariT amcirebs im sakredito

resurss, romelic SeiZleba warmarTuliyo

realuri seqtoris dasakrediteblad. am gziT

mopovebuli finansuri resursis daxarjvas

mTavroba apirebs infrastruqturul

proeqtebze.

saxazino valdebulebaTa emisia namdvilad

ver gamodgeba antikrizisul RonisZiebad

– piriqiT, sakredito resursis SemcirebiT

is zRudavs ekonomikis realuri seqtoris

ganviTarebis SesaZleblobas.

calke aRniSvnis Rirsia is, rom saxazino

valdebulebaTa emisiis gadawyvetilebis

gamocxadebamde samiode kviriT adre

finansTa saministrom ganacxada, rom xazinis

angariSze mas aqvs Tavisufali Tanxa 50 mln

laris odenobiT da misi ukeT gamoyenebis

mizniT gamoacxada tenderi bankebs Soris,

ris Sedegadac es Tanxa asesxa tenderSi

gamarjvebul banks. sayuradReboa, rom

tenederSi gaimarjva erT-erTma yvelaze

problemurma bankma, romelsac am fuliT

SeuZlia iyidos saxazino valdebulebebi,

rac imas niSnas, rom mTavroba sakuTar

fulSive mocemul banks procentebs Soris

sxvaobas gadauxdis. es operacia aSkarad

saeWvo xasiaTisaa da aucileblad saWiroebs

samarTaldamcavi organoebis mxridan

saTanado reagirebas.

rac Seexeba samSeneblo seqtoris mxardaWeras,

am mizniT Tbilisis meriis garantiis qveS

samSeneblo kompaniebs SeeZlebaT sabanko

sesxebis aReba Zveli Tbilisis sacxovrebeli

fondis gasanaxleblad.

imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom samSeneblo

kompaniebs Soris araerTi maTgani

funqcionirebs “finansuri piramidis”

meqanizmiT, mTavrobis mier xsenebuli

RonisZiebis gatarebas win unda uZRvodes

am tipis kompaniebis mimarT gakotrebis

procedurebis inicireba. winaaRmdeg

SemTxvevaSi samSeneblo seqtorisadmi

xsenebuli mxardaWera gadaiqceva “finansuri

piramidebis” mxardaWeradac, rac saboloo

jamSi mxolod da mxolod zianis momtani

iqneba ara marto samSeneblo, aramed sabanko

seqtorisTvisac, rom araferi vTqvaT

Tbilisis biujetis Seabamisi nawilis

aramiznobriv xarjvaze.

samwuxarod, xsenebuli “axali finansuri

paketi” saerTod ar iTvaliswinebs raime

RonisZiebebs mosaxleobis socialuri

mdgomareobis Sesamsubuqeblad, rac, rogorc

wesi, rekomendebulia krizisis pirobebSi

moTxovnis stimulirebis mizniT.

sagadasaxado sistemis “ieRovizacia”

2009 wlis meore naxevarSi saqarTvelos

prezidentma qveynis parlaments SesTavaza

e.w. “ekonomikuri Tavisuflebis aqti”,

romelic mogvianebiT Camoyalibda rogorc

saqarTvelos konstituciuri kanonis proeqti

“saqarTvelos konstituciaSi damatebebis

Seatanis Sesaxeb” da saqarTvelos organuli

kanonis proeqti “ekonomikuri Tavisuflebis,

SesaZleblobebisa da Rirsebis Sesaxeb”.

xsenebuli organuli kanonis proeqtSi

49

damo

ukid

ebel eqsper

tT

a klu

bi

asaxuli zogierTi winadadeba Tavisi arsiT

“Ria karis mtvrevas” warmoadgens, radganac

Sesabamisi problemebi saqarTveloSi ukve

didi xania gadaWrilia da dReisaTvis saerTod

ar warmoadgens aqtualurs. aseTi, uwinares

yovlisa, laris konvertaciaa. pirvelive

dRidan (anu jer kidev 14 wlis win), rodesac

qveyanaSi lari Semovida, is konventirebadia.

ufro metic, 1997 wels saqarTvelo SeuerTda

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis SeTanxmebis

me-8 punqts, romlis Tanaxmadac qveyanam

valdebuleba aiRo, rom laris konvertacia

ar SeizRudeba, xolo 1999 wlidan saqarTvelo

msoflio savaWro organizaciis wevria,

rac aseve gvavaldebulebs imas, rom laris

konvertacia ar SeizRudos. saerTaSoriso

xelSekrulebebi ki qveynis kanonmdeblobaze

maRla dgas.

aseTive situaciaa fasebis saxelmwifo

regulirebis sakiTxSic. ukve 13 welze

metia fasebi Tavisufalia: bolos puris

fasebi gaTavisuflda 1996 wels. 1999 wlidan

saqarTvelos, rogorc msoflio savaWro

organizaciis wevr qveyanas valdebuleba aqvs,

rom fasebs veRar SezRudavs. aseve 13 welze

metia qveyanaSi moqmedebs kanoni investiciebis

Sesaxeb, romlis Tanaxmadac, investors

mogebis repatriaciis SeuzRudavi ufleba

aqvs. msoflio savaWro organizaciis wevrobac

avaldebulebs amas saqarTvelos.

gaugebaria imis moTxovna, rom komerciul

bankebSi ar unda iyos saxelmwifos wili.

kerZod ki, gaugebaria is, Tu romeli

saxelmwifos wili ar unda iyos bankebSi

– nebismieri saxelmwifosi, Tu mxolod

qarTulis. dReisaTvis saqarTvelos

saxelmwifos komerciul bankebSi wili

isedac ara aqvs, magram qarTul sabanko

realobaSi aris ori komerciuli banki,

romelic aris saxelmwifo banki. magaliTad,

”viTibi” aris ruseTis saxelmwifo banki,

xolo ”azerbaijanis saerTaSoriso banki” ki _

azerbaijanis.

axali maregulirebeli institutebis

SemoRebaze uaris Tqma (rac am kanonproeqtis

erT-erTi moTxovnaa) aris signali imisa, rom

saqarTvelo uars ambobs evrointegraciaze,

radganac evropis bazari regulirebadi

bazaria.

ar aris gamarTlebuli sabiujeto

parametrebis winaswari dadgena arasabiujeto

kanonmdeblobiT, rameTu iqmneba precedenti,

romelic momavalSi SesaZloa gadaizardos

aseTi parametrebis CamonaTvalis

gafarToebaSi.

saqarTvelos konstituciaSi Setanili

damatebebis Tanaxmad, Turme, axali

gadasaxadebis SemoRebisa an moqmedi

gadasaxadis ganakveTis zrdis sakiTxebi

referendumiT unda gadawydes. imis

gaTvaliswinebiT, rom aravin iqneba

Tanaxma, rom gadasaxadi gaizardos, aseTi

referendumis Catarebas azri ara aqvs, radgan

mis Sedegi winaswar aris cnobili.

amgvari procedura Tavisi arsiT emTxveva

ieRovelebis wess, romlebmac romc

icodnen, rom sicocxlis SenarCunebisaTvis

sisxlis gadasxma aucilebelia, isini

mainc winaaRmdegni arian amis; eqimebi ki

nebismier SemTxvevaSi valdebulebi arian

maT SesTavazon sisxlis gadasxma, Tumca

pasuxi winaswar ician. ase rom, konstituciaSi

xsenebuli damatebebis SemTxvevaSi

saqarTvelos sagadasaxado sistema

“ieRovizaciis” safrTxis winaSe dgeba.

sagadasaxado politika, rogorc ekonomikuri

politikis nawili, rogorc wesi, situaciis

mixedviT cvalebadi unda iyos. xsenebuli

damatebebis konstituciaSi SetaniT qarTuli

saxelmwifo dakargavs ekonomikuri politikis

erT-erT qmediT instruments.

50

Zveli Secdomebi

sakuTrebis uflebaaSkara Secdoma, rac dauSva “vardebis

revoluciis” gziT mosulma xelisuflebam,

es kerZo sakuTrebis uflebis xelyofaa.

samwuxarod, bolo erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi

ar dafiqsirebula arcerTi SemTxveva

iZulebiT CamorTmeuli qonebis kanonieri

mesakuTrisadmi dabrunebis, an Sesabamisi

kompensaciis gadaxdisa. samwuxarod, bolo

periodSi sakuTrebis uflebis CamorTmevis

axali precedentebic ki iqna dafiqsirebuli.

saxelmwifo qonebis gasxviseba2004 wlidan dawyebuli msxvilmasStabiani

privatizacia mimdinareobda kanonmdeblobis

xSiri darRveviT. samwuxarod, es procesi

dResac ar aris gamWvirvale. gansakuTrebiT

mwvaved dgas saqarTvelos rkinigzis

gasxvisebis sakiTxi, romlis Sesaxebac

xelmisawvdomi informacia ubralod ar

arsebobs. igive situaciaa engurhesTan

dakavSirebiTac.

konkurenciis SezRudva2004 wlis bolos, viTomda reformebis

saburvelqveS gauqmda antimonopoliuri

kanonmdebloba da Sesabamisad saxelmwifo

antimonopoliuri samsaxuri, riTac xeli

Seewyo bazarze monopoliebis ganviTarebas.

imis da miuxedavad, rom evrokavSiris mxridan

antimonopoliuri kanonmdeblobis aRgena

erT-erTi winapirobaa saqarTvelosaTvis

Tavisufali vaWrobis reJimis misaniWeblad,

mTavroba principulad uars acxadebs mis

aRdgenaze.

saxelmwifo statistikastatistikis saxelmwifo departamenti 2004

wels ekonomikuri ganviTarebis saministros

SemadgenlobaSi iqna Seyvanili, rac aSkarad

interesTa konfliqtia. axali kanonis

mixedviT statistikis departamenti unda

Camoyalibdes, rogorc damoukidebeli

instituti, Tumca mis umaRles organoSi –

sameTvalyureo sabWoSi gaTvaliswinebulia

finansTa da ekonomikuri ganviTarebis

saministroebis, aseve erovnuli bankis

xelmZRvanelTa monawileoba, riTac

xsenebuli iteresTa konfliqti praqtikulad

SenarCunebulia.

inflaciis stimulireba mTavrobis mierpost-revoluciuri mTavrobisaTvis,

samwuxarod, damaxasiaTebeli gaxda

populisturi ekonomikuri RonisZiebebis

gatareba, rac praqtikulad mxolod

inflaciis zrdas uwyobda xels. maT Soris

gansakuTrebiT gamoir Ceoda dasaqmebis

gazrdis e.w. erovnuli programa, romlis

Tanaxmadac mewarmeebs imperatiul

tonalobaSi eTxovaT sami Tvis ganmavlobaSi

dae sa qmebinaT umuSevrebi, romlebic

amisaTvis saxelmwifo biu jetidan

dafinansdnen 2006 wels TveSi 150 laris, xolo

2007-2008 wlebSi TveSi 200 laris odenobiT.

sabednierod, omisSemdgom periodSi msgavsi

populisturi RonisZiebebi mTavrobas aRar

ganuxorcielebia.

sabiujeto manipulaciebi2008 wlidan saxelmwifo biujetis Sedgena

gadayvanil iqna axal meTodologiaze,

romlis Tanaxmadac biujetis deficitis

fenomeni, rogorc aseTi, “gaqra”. mTavrobis

mier wlis ganmavlobaSi auTvisebeli Tanxebi,

rogorc metoba sabiujeto xarjebze,

biujetis proficitad iwodeba. sinamdvileSi

saxelmwifo biujetis SemosavlebSi

gaiTvaliswineba mxolod sagadasaxado

Semosavlebi da araerTjeradi mosakreblebi.

Tu es Semosavlebi metia sabiujeto xarjebze,

mxolod maSin aqvs adgili proficits, xolo

Tu Semosavlebi xarjebze naklebia, maSin

biujeti deficituria. swored amitom yvela

im dokumentSi, romelic gankuTvnilia

“ucxouri moxmarebisaTvis”, dafiqsirebulia

saqarTvelos saxelmwifo biujetis

deficituroba, Tumca SinamoxmarebisaTvis

mTavroba Segnebulad apiarebs biujetis

51

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tT

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proficitulobas. samwuxarod, sabiujeto

kanonmdeblobis es nakli ara Tu ar aris

gamosworebuli, amis gakeTebas mTavroba arc

apirebs.

urTierTobebi damqiraveblebsa da daqiravebulebs Sorispost-revoluciurma mTavrobam Sromis kodeqsis iseTi varianti miiRo, romelic maqsimalur uflebebs aZlevs damqiravebels da absoluturad uuflebos xdis daqiravebuls. imis da miuxedavad, rom evrokavSiris mxridan evropuli tipis SromiTi kanonmdeblobis miReba erT-erTi winapirobaa saqarTvelosaTvis Tavisufali vaWrobis reJimis misaniWeblad, mTavroba principulad uars acxadebs arsebuli Sromis kodeqsis Secvlaze.

2006 wels prezidentis iniciativiT, 20 procentiani socialuri gadasaxadi da 12 procentiani saSemosavlo gadasaxadi unda gaerTianebuliyo (imis gaTvaliswinebiT, socialuri gadasaxadi da saSemosavlo gadasaxadi sxvadasxva bazidan iangariSeba, maTi gaerTianeba principulad SeuZlebelia) saSemosavlo gadasaxadSi, romlis donec unda dadgeniliyo 25 procentiT. es asec gakeTda, da Sesabamisi sagadasaxado cvlileba ZalaSi 2007 wlidan Sevida. 2009 wlidan saSemosavlo gadasaxadis ganakveTi 25 procentidan 20 procentamde Semcirda, rac TavisTavad kargia daqiravebulTaTvis, Tumca sulac ar unda iyos daviwyebuli, rom samiode wlis win es ganakveTi mxolod 12 procenti iyo.

Tavisufali ekonomikuri zona – ekonomikuri ganviTarebis maxeqveyanaSi gatarebuli ekonomikuri

liberalizaciis pirobebSi Tavisufali

ekonomikuri zonis Seqmnis ekonomikuri

mizanSewoniloba klebulobs, radganac

SesaZlo SeRavaTebis nusxa da masStabebi

swored am liberalizaciis gamo mcirdeba.

dRes (omamdec, da gansakuTrebiT omis

Semdeg) saqarTvelos ekonomika investiciebis

naklebobas, anu investiciur “SimSils”

ganicdis da aseT pirobebSi Tavisufali

ekonomikuri zonis Seqmna qveyanaSi

investiciuri “SimSilis” gaRrmavebas

gamoiwvevs, rac saboloo jamSi mTeli

ekonomikis ganviTarebas Seaferxebs.

samwuxarod, mTavrobis gadawyvetilebiT

Tavisufali ekonomikuri zona unda Seiqmnas

ara marto foTSi, aramed ukve quTaisSic,

rac imas niSnavs, rom foTisa da quTaisis

ekonomikuri ganviTareba danarCeni

saqarTvelos xarjze moxdeba.

saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis dasusteba2008 wlis gazafxulze mTavrobam sabanko zedamxedvelobis funqcia erovnul banks CamoaSora, xolo TviT erovnul banks erTaderTi funqcia – inflaciis regulireba dautova. amasTan erovnuli bankis prezidentis pasuxismgebloba daukavSira inflaciis wliur doneze dawesebuli zeda zRvaris darRvevas, ramac erovnuli bankis prezidenti mTavrobaze damokidebuli gaxada, radgan mTavrobis xelTaa wliuri inflaciis doneze zegavlenis aranaklebi Zalis mqone instrumentebi, vidre es erovnuli bankis gankargulebaSia. 2009 wels miRebul iqna erovnuli bankis Sesaxeb axali kanoni, romlis dadebiT momentad unda CaiTvalos is, rom amoRebulia inflaciis wliuri donze dawesebuli zeda zRvaris darRvevaze erovnuli bankis prezidentis xsenebuli pasuxismgeblobis sakiTxi. kanonis Tanaxmad, erovnul bankSi dabrunda finansuri zedamxedvelobis samsaxuri, rac absoluturad gamarTlebulia. miuxedavad imisa, rom mTavrobas ar uRiarebia erovnuli bankis institucionalur dasustebaSi daSvebuli Secdoma, misasalmebelia is nabijebi, romlebic gadaidgmeba 2009 wels am Secdomebis gamosworebis mimarTulebiT.

evroobligaciebis emisia da sagareo valis damatebiT 500 mln. aSS dolariT gazrda2008 wlis aprilSi mTavrobam

evroobligaciebis gamoSvebiT saqarTvelos

52

sagareo vali 500 mln. aSS dolariT gauzarda.

samwuxarod, dRemde ar aris sajaro

informacia imis Sesaxeb, daixarja Tu ara es

Tanxa, da Tu daixarja – raSi daixarja, da Tu

ar daxarjula – maSin sad aris is. amis codna

aucilebebia, radganac es vali ukve 2013 wels

aris gasastumrebeli.

“mwvane paraskevi”2008 wlis 7 noembers bankTaSoris savaluto

birJaze komerciuli bankebis moTxovnam aSS

dolarze, maTi mxridan nulovani miwodebis

pirobebSi (rogorc es iyo bolo erT Tveze

meti drois ganmavlobaSi) 31 mln-s gadaaWarba.

erovnulma bankma am moTxovnidan mxolod 270

aTasi daakmayofila da Semdeg sabirJo vaWroba

Sewyvita viTomda teqnikuri mizezebis gamo.

aman ki imave dResve Seqmna panika: bankomatebi

fulisagan myisierad dacarielda, xolo

gadamcvlelma jixurebma dolaris kursi

mniSvnelovnad awies, Tanac xSir SemTxvevaSi

uars ambobdnen dolaris gayidvaze. ase rom,

saqarTvelos erovnulma bankma qveyanas

“mwvane paraskevi” mouwyo. saqarTvelos

savaluto bazarze panikuri dabneuloba

SabaT-kvirasac gagrZelda. saqarTvelos

erovnuli bankis rezervebi da maTi Sevsebis

garantirebuli wyaro donorTa daxmarebis

saxiT iZleva imis obieqtur safuZvels,

rom laris gacvliTi kursis gansazRvris

procesSi naxtomebi uyos gamoricxuli.

2009 wlidan erovnulma bankma Sewyvita

operaciebi bankTaSoris savaluto birJaze da

is Caanacvla savaluto auqcionis meqnizmiT,

romelsac atarebs bluumbergis sistemiT.

samwuxarod, amis Semdeg praqtikulad Znelad

mosapovebeli gaxda informacia savaluto

rezervebis dinamikis Sesaxeb, rac qmnis imis

safrTxes, rom kvlav ar iqnes gameorebuli

“mwvane paraskevis” mware gakveTili.

ekonomikuri programaxelisuflebis 2008 wlis saprezidento da

saparlamento arCevnebis winasaarCevno

mowodeba “erTiani saqarTvelo siRaribis

gareSe!” iqca im e.w. programis saTaurad,

romelic parlamentma 2008 wlis ianvris

bolos daamtkica. am dokuments mxolod

pirobiTad SeiZleba ewodos programa, radgan

is mxolod da mxolod ramodenime gverdze

Camowerili mowodebebiT Semoifargleba.

samwuxarod, mTavroba stabilurad inarCunebs

dauintereseblobas da uunarobas, Seqmnas

seriozuli dokumenti, romelic realurad

Seasrulebs samTavrobo programis funqcias.

siRaribis Semcirebis kuTxiT erTaderTi

seriozuli nabiji, rac mTavrobam gadadga,

es xuT lariani sadazRvevo paketis

implementaciis mcdeloba iyo, rasac raime

xelSesaxebi efeqti, samwuxarod, ar moutania.

daskvna

omisSemdgom periodSi saqarTveloSi

sabolood gamoikveTa ekonomikuri

krizisisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli yvela

niSani. is, rom ekonomika inarCunebs

mdgardobas, xolo saxelmwifo biujeti ar

mcirdeba, es uwinares yovlisa, donorTa

im finansuri daxmarebis Sedegia, romlis

saqarTvelosaTvis, rogorc ruseTis

agresiis msxverplisaTvis gamoyofac 2008

wlis 22 oqtombers briuselSi Catarebul

konferenciaze gadawyda.

samwuxarod, saqarTvelos mTavrobas Seqmnili

viTarebisaTvis aucilebeli antikrizisuli

programa ar gaaCnia, xolo is calkeuli

RonisZiebebi, romelic mTavrobam SeimuSava,

aSkarad aradamakmayofilebebelia.

rac Seexeba wina wlebSi daSvebul Secdomebs,

saqarTvelos mTavrobas, samwuxarod, isini

ar uRiarebia da raime mniSvnelovani nabijebi

maT gamosasworeblad jer-jerobiT ar

gadaudgams.

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agvistos omis Semdeg ganvlili weli erTob

rTuli aRmoCnda saqarTvelos ekonomikisTvis.

marTalia, eqspertebis umetesoba ekonomikuri

aqtivobis dacemas imTaviTve varaudobda,

magram man mosalodnelze meti siRrme

gamoavlina. mTliani Sida produqti 2009

wlis pirvel naxevarSi wina wlis Sesabamis

periodTan SedarebiT 7.8%-iT Semcirda,

pirvel 9 TveSi ki _ 5.5%-iT.

krizisis faqtorebi

krizisma ekonomikis TiTqmis yvela dargi

moicva. 2009 wlis pirvel naxevarSi wina wlis

Sesabamis periodTan SedarebiT gansakuTrebiT

mkveTri kleba gamovlinda vaWrobaSi (25.2%-

iT), sastumroebisa da restornebis seqtorSi

(13.6%-iT), mSeneblobaSi (10.8%), mrewvelobasa

(10%) da soflis meurneobaSi (8.2%-iT).

ekonomikuri daqveiTeba mniSvnelovnad

daaCqara globalurma finansurma krizisma,

romelmac rusuli agresiisa da qveynis

ekonomikaSi jer kidev omamde dagrovili

problemebis fonze erTob mtkivneuli

dartyma miayena saqarTvelos. sagareo

ekonomikuri da geopolitikuri Sokebis

kombinaciis uaryofiTi efeqti ZiriTadad sami

mimarTulebiT gamovlinda, saxeldobr:

kerZo kapitalis nakadebis Semodinebis 1.

mkveTr klebaSi, rogorc pirdapiri

ucxouri investiciebis, ise sakredito

resursebis mozidvis saxiT.

niSandoblivia, rom pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebis moculoba 2009 wlis

merab kakulia

omisSemdgomi saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri paradigma

pirvel naxevarSi wina wlis Sesabamis

periodTan SedarebiT 4-jer Semcirda;

qarTul saeqsporto saqonelze 2.

(gansakuTrebiT metalurgiul

produqciaze) sagareo moTxovnis erTob

mniSvnelovan vardnaSi: eqsportis klebam

igive periodSi 35%-s gadaaWarba;

ucxoeTidan fuladi gzavnilebis 3.

arsebiT, TiTqmis 20%-ian SemcirebaSi.

krizisis gaRrmavebaSi Zalze mniSvnelovani

roli iTamaSia, agreTve, sakredito depresiam,

romelic orwliani sasesxo bumis Semdeg

ganviTarda. sakredito riskebis gaZlierebis

kvalobaze, rac umoqmedo sesxebis

swrafma zrdam daadastura, komerciulma

bankebma mkveTrad daamuxruWes ekonomikis

dakrediteba. Sedegad, mxolod 2009 wlis

pirvel naxevarSi mTliani sakredito

portfelis moculoba qveyanaSi 10.4%-iT

Semcirda.

aRniSnuli faqtorebis urTierTqmedebam

uaRresad uaryofiTad imoqmeda Sida

moTxovnaze, gansakuTrebiT mis samomxmareblo

komponentze, rasac didad Seuwyo xeli

dasaqmebis problemis Semdgomma gamwvavebam.

umuSevrobis donem oficialuri SefasebiT

2008 wels 16.5%-s miaRwia. saerTaSoriso

savaluto fondi ki miiCnevs, rom realurad es

maCvenebeli ufro maRalia. am TvalsazrisiT,

niSandoblivia, rom oficialuri monacemebiT

dasaqmebulTa raodenoba biznes-seqtorSi

54

2009 wlis meore kvartalSi wina wlis Sesabamis

periodTan SedarebiT mxolod 4.6%-iT (15

353 kaciT) Semcirda. Tu gaviTvaliswinebT,

rom ekonomikurma daRmasvlam Tavis fskers

saqarTveloSi savaraudod swored 2009

wlis pirvel naxevarSi miaRwia, es monacemi

naklebad sarwmuno Cans.

mTavari makroekonomikuri gamowveva

mTavari makroekonomikuri gamowveva, romlis winaSec bolo erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi saqarTvelos xelisufleba dadga, Sida da gare wyaroebidan qveynis ekonomikis kerZo dafinansebaSi Seqmnili deficitis ramdenadme mainc ganeitraleba da am gziT ekonomikuri aqtivobis xelSewyoba iyo. aRniSnul gamowvevas mTavrobam e.w. ekonomikuri stimulirebis paketiT upasuxa, romelic arsebiTad sam elements Seicavs: donorebisgan miRebuli finansuri daxmarebis xarjze adgilobrivi infrastruqturis dafinansebas, sagadasaxado ganakveTebis Semcirebas da ufro xelsayreli pirobebis Seqmnas ucxouri investiciebis mozidvisTvis. infrastruqturis ganviTarebis proeqtebis dafinanseba erTi SexedviT rTuli ar unda yofiliyo, radgan agvistos omis Sedegebis aRmosafxvrelad donorebma, jer kidev globaluri finansuri krizisis ukiduresad gamwvavebamde, miiRes politikuri gadawyvetileba saqarTvelosTvis sami wlis (2008-2010) ganmavlobaSi 4.55 mlrd aSS dolarze meti saerTo moculobis finansuri daxmarebis dapirebis Sesaxeb. aRniSnuli saxsrebis gaformeba da Semdeg ganaRdeba, rogorc aRmoCnda, sakmaod did Zalisxmevas da dros moiTxovs. amaze Tundac is faqti metyvelebs, rom 2009 wlis 15 noembramde mTavrobam donorebis mier dapirebuli Tanxidan faqtobrivad jer mxolod 705.3 mln aSS dolari miiRo. gasuli saukunis 30-iani wlebis “didi depresiis” droidan aprobirebuli

antikrizisuli praqtikis Sesabamisad, mTavroba cdilobs aRniSnuli saxsrebi metwilad sagzao, energetikuli, komunaluri da socialuri infrastruqturis ganviTarebis programebs moaxmaros, rasac kerZo seqtorSi ekonomikuri aqtivobis gamococxleba unda mohyves. ramdenadac am programebis intensiuri ganxorcieleba mxolod 2009 wlis meore kvartlidan daiwyo, misi multiplikaciuri efeqti jer-jerobiT naklebad Cans, Tumca samomavlod man SesaZloa sagrZnoblad gaaneitralos ekonomikis kerZo dafinansebis deficiti. rac Seexeba gadasaxadebis ganakveTebis Semcirebas, marTalia saSemosavlo gadasaxadisa da dividendebis dabegvris ganakveTebma 2009 wlis 1 ianvridan mniSvnelovnad daiwia, magram naklebad savaraudoa, rom gamoTavisuflebuli Tanxa arastabilur ekonomikur garemoSi kerZo investiciebSi warimarTa. ufro sarwmunoa, rom aRniSnuli saxsrebi (saSemosavlo gadasaxadis ganakveTis Semcirebis Sedegad mTavrobis prognoziT ekonomikis kerZo seqtorSi 2009 wels 250 mln lari unda darCeniliyo) krizisiT gamowveuli finansuri danakargebis nawilobriv kompensacias an kidev SeTxelebuli danazogebis aRdgenas moxmarda. es TavisTavad dadebiT movlenas warmoadgens, Tumca moklevadian perspeqtivaSi masac mcire antikrizisuli efeqti SeiZleba hqondes.

ucxouri investiciebis mozidvaagvistos omis Semdeg pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis daSretili nakadebis aRdgenas mTavroba zogadad liberaluri biznes garemos1 warmoCeniT, konkretulad ki _ ucxoel investorTaTvis xelsayreli fiskaluri reJimebis damkvidrebiT da investiciebis dacvis damatebiTi garantiebiT cdilobs.

1 liberaluri biznes garemos ZiriTad maxasiaTeblebad saqarTveloSi miiCneva: licenziebisa da nebarTvebis minimaluri odenoba, sakuTrebis registraciis simartive, upiratesad damqiraveblis interesebze orientirebuli Sromis kanonmdebloba, gadasaxadebis raodenobisa da maTi ganakveTebis simcire, nulovani sabaJo tarifebi sasaqonlo jgufebis 95%-ze da SedarebiT gaadvilebuli sabaJo procedurebi.

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a klu

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liberaluri biznes garemo mineraluri

resursebiT SedarebiT Rarib mcire

ekonomikaSi sainvesticio gadawyvetilebis

miRebis aucilebeli pirobaa, magram ara

sakmarisi. iuridiulad mimzidveli biznes

garemos SesaZleblobebis gamoyeneba

saqarTveloSi, rogorc bolodroindelma

kvlevebma aCvena, faqtobrivad mTel rig

barierebs awydeba, romelTa Sorisaa:

kvalificirebuli muSa-xelis da inJiner-•teqnikuri personalis nakleboba, rac

dRis wesrigSi ayenebs muSakTa profesiul

momzadebisa da gadamzadebis sruliad

axali sistemis Seqmnas, romelic

potenciuri investorebis saWiroebebs

moergeba;

SedarebiT kvalificirebuli muSaxelis •gaZvireba ekonomikis realur seqtorSi,

maT Soris laris gamyarebis gamo, rac,

marTalia, bolo erTi wlis ganmavlobaSi

nawilobriv ganeitralda, magram mainc

ZalaSi rCeba;

fiskaluri rutina, romelic sagadasaxado •administrirebis mouqnelobaSi vlindeba.

samewarmeo subieqtebze didi moculobis

jarimebisa da sauravebis daricxva

investorTa TvalSi mniSvnelovnad

afermkrTalebs SedarebiT dabali

sagadasaxado ganakveTebis mimzidvelobas;

kapitalis adgilobrivi bazris •ganuviTarebloba, rac investors

ar aZlevs saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi

adgilobrivi wyaroebidan damatebiTi

finansuri resursebis mobilizaciisa

da riskebis nawilobriv ganeitralebis

saSualebas;

antimonopoliuri (antitrastuli) •regulirebis sisuste, rac xels uSlis

konkurentuli garemos Camoyalibebas

da xels uwyobs bazris mkveTrad

oligipoliuri struqturis Seqmnas,

rac civilizebuli investoris mier

negatiurad aRiqmeba;

xarisxis erovnuli infastruqturis •ganuviTarebloba, rac teqnikuri

reglamentebis ararsebobasa da

standartebis saerTaSoriso

analogebTan SeuTavseblobaSi vlindeba.

dasaxelebuli da sxva barierebis fonze

liberalurma biznes garemom didi gavlena

ver moaxdina ekonomikis realur seqtorSi

ucxouri investiciebis struqturaze.

mrewvelobasa da soflis meurneobaze 2009

wlis pirvel naxevarSi pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebis 23.5% modioda, maSin rodesac

mxolod uZrav qonebaSi ganTavsebulma

investiciebma maTi mTliani moculobis

TiTqmis 29% Seadgina. amiT SeiZleba aixsnas

is garemoeba, rom isedac Semcirebulma

sainvesticio nakadebma verc dasaqmebas

daamCnia raime seriozuli kvali da verc

eqsports.

saqarTvelos mcire zomis ekonomika, ragind

gaxsnilic ar unda iyos igi, TavisTavad

naklebad mimzidvelia seriozuli

investorisTvis, Tu man ufro did bazrebze

gasvlis perspeqtiva ver dainaxa. amdenad,

ucxouri investiciebis mozidvas Tvisobrivad

axali biZgi SeiZleba misces evrokavSirTan

da aSS-Tan Rrma da yovlismomcveli

Tavisufali vaWrobis xelSekrulebis Sesaxeb

molaparakebaTa realur fazaSi Sesvlam. mis

formatSi pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis

xelisSemSleli, zemoT dasaxelebuli eqvsi

barieridan sul cota oTxis gadalaxva maincaa

SesaZlebeli. garda amisa, industriulad

maRalganviTarebul qveynebTan Tavisufali

vaWrobis SesaZlebloba teqnologiuri

da Sesabamisad maRalmwarmoebluri

investiciebis mozidvis Sans iZleva, rasac

jer-jerobiT ver vxedavT.

56

ucxouri investorebze mainc da mainc

did STabeWdilebas verc uSualod maTze

orientirebuli axali fiskaluri reJimebi

axdens. maTgan, gansakuTrebiT aRsaniSnavia

qveynis 4 qalaqSi (foTSi, baTumSi, quTaissa da

TbilisSi) Tavisufali industriuli zonebis

Seqmna, romelTa farglebSi saSemosavlo

gadasaxadis garda faqtobrivad yvela

gadasaxadi gauqmdeba. samomavlod amgvarma

zonebma marTlac SeiZleba daainteresos

investorTa garkveuli kategoria. amasTan,

savsebiT realuria Tavisufali industriuli

zonebis miRma liberaluri biznes garemos

sainvesticio mimzidvelobis dakargvis

safrTxec, razec profesori vl. papava

miuTiTebs. Tu es moxda, pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebis nakadebi ZiriTadad Tavisufal

industriul zonebSi moiyris Tavs da

kidev ufro gaaRrmavebs qveynis regionebis

socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis

uTanabrobas. amitom mizanSewonili iqneboda,

analogiuri sagadasaxado SeRavaTebis,

Tundac garkveuli vadiT, Tavisufali

industriuli zonebis miRma ganxorcielebul

iseT investiciebze gavrceleba, romelic

eqsportze orientirebul warmoebaSi Caideba

da realurad Seqmnis mniSvnelovani odenobis

axal samuSao adgilebs.

eqsportis gafarToeba

qarTuli eqsportis krizisamdeli donis

miRweva niSnavs mis minimum gaormagebas

iseT tradiciul sasaqonlo kategoriebSi,

rogoricaa feroSenadnobebi, spilenZis

madnebi da koncentratebi, Savi liTonis

jarTi da azotovani sasuqebi. ramdenadac

globaluri moTxovna liTonis produqciaze

mokle da saSualovadian perspeqtivaSi

savaraudod erTob zomieri iqneba, qarTuli

eqsportis status-kvos aRdgena SesaZloa

gaWirdes.

am fonze gansakuTrebul aqtualobas iZens

eqsportis diversifikacia, rac produqciis

im saxeobaTa saeqsporto SesaZleblobebaTa

gamoyenebas gulisxmobs, romelSic

saqarTvelos gaaCnia mniSvnelovani, magram

naklebad realizebuli konkurentuli

potenciali. msoflio bankis jgufis mier 2009

wels ganxorcielebuli kvlevis winaswari

Sedegebis mixedviT gamoikveTa sul cota 6

dasaxelebis aseTi produqcia; kerZod, xili,

samSeneblo masalebi, bostneuli, tansacmeli,

Rvino, medikamentebi da samedicini

mowyobiloba2.

am saxeobis saqonlis eqsportis gafarToeba

mTel rig faqtorebze iqneba damokidebuli,

romelTaganac gansakuTrebiT aRsaniSnavia:

produqciis xarisxis saerTaSoriso •standartebTan Tavsebadobis miRweva,

kerZod donorTa mier Sesabamisi

piloturi programebis dafinanseba;

kreditis xelmisawvdomobis •uzrunvelyofa, kerZod konkurentuli

potencialis mqone dargebSi saxelmwifos

mier donorTa mxardaWeriT “iafi

kreditis programis” aRdgena an (da)

saprocento ganakveTebis subsidirebis

praqtikis SemoReba;

mwarmoebelTa asociaciebis Seqmna, •pirvel rigSi agrarul seqtorSi,

rac gaaadvilebs Sesabamisi saxeobis

produqciis mwarmoebelTa informaciul

uzrunvelyofas, agreTve inovaciur

da marketingul mxardaWeras uSualod

saxelmwifos an donorTa mxridan;

SesaZlo investorTa informireba im •konkurentuli potencialis da savaWro

preferenciebis (magaliTad, GsP+)

Sesaxeb, romelic arsebobs saqarTvelos

ekonomikis calkeul dargebSi.

2 sasaqonlo jgufebi CamoTvlilia konkurentuli poten-cialis reitingebis Sesabamisad, romelic kvlevis Sedegad dadginda.

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am da sxva RonisZiebebis ganxorcieleba

eqsportis xelSewyobis erTiani

saxelmwifoebrivi politikis CarCoSi didad

waadgeba, rogorc zemoT dasaxelebuli

produqciis ucxoeTSi realizacias, ise

masze Sida moTxovnis zrdas da importis

Canacvlebas. saboloo jamSi, es saSualebas

iZleva gaumjobesdes mimdinare angariSis

deficiti, romelic omisSemdgom periodSi

sagrZnoblad Seviwrovda, Tumca krizisidan

gamosvlis kvalobaze SesaZloa mkveTrad

gafarTovdes da kvlav safrTxe Seuqmnas

qveynis finansur stabilurobas.

sakredito aqtivobis ganaxleba

ucxour investiciebze da eqsportze

aranaklebi mniSvneloba aqvs komerciuli

bankebis mier ekonomikis dakreditebis

sferoSi arsebuli depresiuli fonis

gadalaxvas, romelic arastabilur

ekonomikur da geopolitikur garemoSi

sakredito portfelis gauaresebam Seqmna.

umoqmedo sesxebis wili gacemuli kreditebis

saerTo moculobaSi omisSemdgom periodSi

oTxjer da metad gaizarda. mkveTrad gaizarda

bankebis mier sesxebze SesaZlo danakargebis

rezervebis Seqmnaze gaweuli xarjebi, ramac

cxadia bankebSi axali kreditebis gacemis

mimarT SiSis gancda Camoayaliba. kerZo

seqtorze gacemuli sesxebis moculoba 2009

wlis 10 TveSi ganuxreli klebis tendencias

avlenda, ris Sedegadac igi 13%-iT Semcirda.

aRniSnuli tendenciis SeCerebas mTavroba

da erovnuli banki axali finansuri paketiT

Seecada, romelic TiTqmis mTlianad recesiis

pirobebSi komerciuli bankebis finansuri

tvirTis Semsubuqebas isaxavs miznad. paketiT

gaTvaliswinebuli RonisZiebebidan SedarebiT

perspeqtiuli Cans municipaluri garantiiT

im samSeneblo obieqtebis dakrediteba,

romlebSic moxdeba Tbilisis centraluri

ubnebis avariuli sacxovrebeli nagebobebidan

nebayoflobiT gasuli mobinadreebis

gansaxleba. avariuli saxlebis aRdgena-

gamagrebaze biujetidan yovelwliurad

176 mln lari ixarjeba. amdenad, SeiZleba

vivaraudoT, rom aRniSnuli iniciativis

saTanadod administrirebis SemTxvevaSi,

samSeneblo seqtori arc Tu umniSvnelo

saxsrebs miiRebs, xolo bankebs Warbi

likvidobis garkveuli nawilis SedarebiT

naklebi riskiT ganTavsebis saSualeba

miecemaT.

axali finansuri paketis sxva RonisZiebebidan

yuradRebas iqcevs komerciuli bankebisaTvis

riskis mixedviT Sewonili aqtivebis

koeficientis Semsubuqeba, rasac, ideis

avtorTa azriT, 400 mln aSS dolaris odenobis

sakredito resursis gamoTavisufleba

SeuZlia. realurad es gadawyvetileba

xels mxolod bankebis kapitalis maRali

adeqvaturobis SenarCunebas anu kapitalis

buferis Seqmnas SeiZleba emsaxurebodes,

rac bankebs, sakredito portfelis Semdgomi

gauaresebis SemTxvevaSi, met finansur

moqnilobas SesZens. dakreditebis zrdas ki

moklevadian periodSi uSualod es stimuli

naklebad waadgeba, radganac:

jer erTi, ekonomikuri garemo jer kidev •arastabiluria, krizisidan gamosvlis perspeqtiva ki bundovani. amitom bankebi eridebian axal seriozul riskebze wasvlas; da

meore, maT isedac maRali likvidoba aqvT, •anu ukve uWirT ganaTavson depozitebi, romelTa moculoba 2009 wlis maisidan moyolebuli ganuxrelad izrdeba.

am fonze bankebisaTvis sakmaod mimzidveli SeiZleba iyos finansuri paketiT gaTvaliswinebuli sxva RonisZieba, kerZod mTavrobis mier 260 mln laris moculobis saxazino valdebulebaTa gamoSveba. marTalia, aRniSnuli finansuri instrumentis Semosavlianoba dabalia, magram Warbi likvidobis garkveuli nawilis

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ganTavseba masSi, ise rogorc erovnuli bankis sadepozito serTifikatebSi, bankebisaTvis naklebad sariskoa. garda amisa, es saSualebas miscems mTavrobas donorTa mier gamoyofili saxsrebis miRebamde infrastruqturis ganviTarebis proeqtebi nawilobriv sabanko seqtoridan nasesxebi saxsrebiT daafinansos, rac saboloo jamSi kerZo seqtorSi saqmiani aqtivobis gaRvivebas Seuwyobs xels.amrigad finansuri paketiT gaTvaliswinebulma RonisZiebebma mTlianobaSi, SesaZloa, gauadvilos bankebs krizisul pirobebTan adaptacia, magram masStabur Zvrebs ekonomikis kerZo seqtoris dakreditebaSi igi ver gamoiwvevs.

dakreditebis moculobis ganuxreli kleba 2009 wlis meore naxevarSi sabanko seqtorSi depozitebis Tanmimdevruli zrdis fonze warimarTa, rac sabanko sistemis mimarT ndobis matebaze mianiSnebs. korporatiulma seqtorma da Sinameurneobebma erTob pozitiurad aRiqva is faqti, rom krizisis gaRrmavebis miuxedavad agvistos omis Semdeg qarTulma bankebma SeinarCunes finansuri mdgradoba, raSic uaRresad mniSvnelovani roli iTamaSa donorebis daxmarebis xarjze maTi vadadamdgari ucxouri valdebulebebis dafarvam da laris kursis stabilurobam 2008 wlis noembris devalvaciis Semdeg.

depozitebis intensiuri formireba aiZulebs

bankebs maRali sakredito riskebis pirobebSic

ki gaafarToon sasesxo operaciebi. winaaRmdeg

SemTxvevaSi, maT finansuri stabilurobas

seriozuli safrTxe daemuqreba. amiT

aixsneba mTeli rigi bankebis mier 2009

wlis bolos saprocento ganakveTebis

Semcireba rogorc depozitebze, ise

kreditebze. empiriuli dakvirveba aCvenebs,

rom kreditis gaiafebiT jer-jerobiT

mxolod privilegirebuli klientura

anu msxvili korporatiuli msesxeblebi

sargebloben. wvrili biznesisTvis, ise

rogorc SinameurneobaTaTvis krediti kvlav

Zviria da naklebad xelmisawvdomi. miuxedavad

amisa, makroekonomikuri garemos Tundac

zomieri, magram Tanmimdevruli gaumjobesebis

kvalobaze, kerZo seqtoris dakreditebis

moculoba SesaZloa sagrZnoblad gaizardos.

2010 wels zogierTi SefasebiT, man SeiZleba

10%-iT moimatos. bankebis realur motivacias

am mimarTulebiT gansazRvravs sabanko

seqtoris likvidobis gaumjobeseba, kapitalis

adekvaturobis maRali maCvenebeli da

sesxebze SesaZlo danakargebis ukve Seqmnili

rezervebis sakmarisoba.

miaRwia Tu ara krizisma fskers?2009 wlis mesame kvartalSi wina or kvartalTan SedarebiT saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi ramdenime dadebiT Zvras hqonda adgili, romelTaganac aRsaniSnavia:

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis nakadis •mniSvnelovani zrda mrewvelobaSi, transportsa da kavSirgabmulobaSi da mSeneblobaSi;

vardnis SeCereba mSeneblobaSi da •uZrav qonebaze fasebis garkveuli stabilizacia;

wliur gamosaxulebaSi klebis tempis •Semcireba mrewvelobasa da vaWrobaSi, agreTve sastumroebisa da restornebis seqtorSi;

wliuri mateba transportSi.•

yovelive es gvafiqrebinebs, rom krizisulma daRmasvlam SesaZloa ukve miaRwia Tavis fskers, Tumca mesame kvartalSi mTliani Sida produqtis wliuri zrda kvlav uaryofoTia (-1.2%). ar aris gamoricxuli, rom es maCvenebeli meoTxe kvartalSi pozitiur niSnulze gavides. miuxedavad amisa, ukve naTelia, rom mTliani Sida produqtis mateba 2009 wels uaryofiTi iqneba. saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis da rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis evropuli bankis prognozebiT igi Sesabamisad -4 an -5.5%-is farglebSi moeqceva.

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rac Seexeba 2010 wels, saerTaSoriso finansuri institutebi mTliani Sida produqtis pozitiur - 2%-ian zrdas moelian, Tumca Zneli saTqmelia, ramdenad Tanmimdevruli iqneba ekonomikuri gamococxleba, radganac jer kidev arsebobs seriozuli makroekonomikuri riskebi.

saSualovadiani periodis riskebisaSualovadiani makroekonomikuri riskebidan yvelaze realuria pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis neli da aramdgradi mateba, rac SeiZleba ganpirobebuli iyos globaluri recesiidan gamosvlis sirTuleebiT. maT fonze SeTxelebulma sainvesticio nakadebma SesaZloa gverdi auaron geopolitikurad arasaxarbielo mdgomareobaSi myof saqarTvelos. aseT viTarebaSi, rogorc praqtikam aCvena, biznes-garemos martooden iuridiulad gaformebuli liberalizacia da misi warmoCena saerTaSoriso masStabiT sakmarisi ar aris potenciuri, da rac mTavaria, civilizebuli investoris dasaintereseblad.

aranakleb problemuri SeiZleba iyos donorTa mier Sepirebuli Tanxebis dagvianeba an uares SemTxvevaSi mniSvnelovani Sekveca, rac srulebiTac ar aris gamoricxuli, Tu globaluri recesiidan gamosvla Seyovnda da mkveTrad gaizarda sxva qveynebis moTxovna donorul resursebze. amitom mTavrobam yvelaferi unda iRonos imisaTvis, raTa Sepirebuli Tanxebi droulad gaaformos da miiRos daTqmul vadebSi.

garkveuli riskis Semcvelia mTavrobis ganZraxva “ekonomikuri Tavisuflebis aqtis” Sesabamisad, biujetis deficiti momdevno 3 wlis ganmavlobaSi mTliani Sida produqtis 3%-de daiyvanos. amas SeiZleba mohyves fiskaluri wnexis Semdgomi moWera an biujetis xarjebis Sekveca, an kidev orive erTad. ramdenadac 2010 wlidan axali saarCevni cikli iwyeba, biujetis xarjebis arsebiTi Sekveca naklebad savaraudoa. fiskaluri administrirebis kidev ufro gamkacreba ki, roca misi resursi erTob SezRudulia, gaaZlierebs fiskalur rutinas da xels SeuSlis ekonomikuri gamococxlebis stabilur zrdaSi gadasvlas.

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis nakadebis mniSvnelovani zrdis gareSe, miT umetes Tu sagrZnoblad Seferxda donorTa finansuri daxmarebis miReba, SeiZleba warmoiSvas sagadamxdelo balansSi seriozuli finansuri garRvevis safrTxe. am safrTxes aZlierebs mimdinare angariSis deficitis gafarToebis perspeqtivac, rac SeiZleba dakavSirebuli iyos post-krizisul periodSi energoresursebze msoflio fasebis matebasa da krizisis dros mkveTrad Semcirebuli importis zrdasTan.

finansuri garRvevis dafarvis yvelaze xelmisawvdom wyaros axlo momavalSi saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis krediti warmoadgens, magram samomavlod saqarTvelos mTavrobam axlave unda daiwyos eqsportis mxardaWeris politikis instituciuri CarCos gaZliereba. es gulisxmobs mZlavri institutebis (eqsportis xelSewyobis saagento, mwarmoebelTa da eqsportiorTa asociaciebi da sxva) farglebSi aRniSnuli politikis realizaciis qmediTi meqanizmebis (eqsportis sakredito da sagarantio, informaciuli da marketinguli uzrunvelyofa da sxva) Seqmnas.

erovnuli ekonomikis konkurentunarianobis ganmtkiceba, rac kerZo kapitalis nakadebis Semodinebis mniSvnelovani faqtoria, saWiroebs erovnuli valutis gacvliTi kursis moqnilobis uzrunvelyofas. amasTan, gacvliTi kursis cvalebadoba pirdapir kavSirSia sabanko seqtorSi arsebul iseT sistemur riskTan, rogoricaa bankebis balansebis dolarizaciis Zalian maRali done. am fonze laris kursis 10%-ian dacemasac ki, Tu igi kvlav myisierad ganxorcieldeba, SeuZlia bankebi dartymis qveS daayenos. gamoricxuli ar aris, rom bankebma erovnul valutaSi maT xelT arsebuli Warbi likvidoba ucxouri valutis SesaZenad warmarTon, rasac SesaZloa mohyves zewola savaluto bazarze. amitom, aRniSnuli riskis Tavidan asacileblad erovnuli banki Warbi likvidobis sterilizaciis mudmiv mzadyofnaSi unda iyos. es im mxrivac aris aucilebeli, rom perspeqtivaSi savsebiT realuria inflaciis gaRvivebac.

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2008 wlis ruseT-saqarTvelos agvistos omi da 2009 wlis gazafxulis saprotesto maraToni im movlenaTa ricxvSi Sedis, romlebic sazogadoebrivi azris formirebaze Zlier zemoqmedebas axdens da romlebTan kavSirSic sxvadasxva aspeqtiT gaizomeba socialur-politikuri garemos mimarT damokidebuleba. bevr socialur movlenasTan mimarTebaSi sazogadoebis damokidebuleba mniSvnelovnad icvleba imis mixedviT, romel situaciaSi xdeba maTi Sefaseba _ omis win, uSualod omis Semdgom Tu omis damTavrebidan Tveebis Semdeg.isic mniSvnelovania, rom agvistos omTan da sagazafxulo krizisTan pirdapir Tu irib mimarTebaSi myofi movlenebis Sefaseba mniSvnelovnad varirebs sxvadasxva politikuri preferenciebis mqone jgufebSi. metic: es movlenebi yvelaze Zlieri wyalgamyofia politikuri orientaciebis mixedviT diferencirebuli jgufebisTvis. qvemoT mocemulia q. Tbilisis mosaxleobis sociologiuri gamokiTxvis Sedegebi; gamokiTxvebi Catarda Semdegi periodulobiT: omis dawyebamde, 2008 wlis ivlisSi, omis damTavrebidan Zalian male – 2008 wlis seqtemberSi da omidan Tveebis gavlis Semdeg _ 2008 wlis dekemberSi, agreTve, sagazafxulo krizisis mimdinareobis da misi dasrulebis Semdeg _ 2009 wlis martSi, maisSi, ivlissa da oqtomber/noemberSi1.

1 gamokiTxvebi Caatara “socialuri kvlevisa da analizis institutma (ISSA)”.

kvlevis meTodologiis Sesaxeb

yvela SemTxvevaSi Catarda raodenobrivi sociologiuri gamokvleva, gamokiTxvis, kerZod, pirispir (face to face) intervius meTodis gamoyenebiT, ojaxebSi. generalur erTobliobas warmoadgenda q. Tbilisis saarCevno asakis (18 wlis da meti) mosaxleoba. SerCeviTi erTobliobis moculobaa minimum 800 respondenti, rac uzrunvelyofs imas, rom cdomilebis maqsimaluri sidide (mTeli SerCevisaTvis) maqsimum 3.5%-ia (95%-iani saimedoobiT).

SerCevis bazad gamoyenebulia saqarTvelos mosaxleobis aRweris 2002 wlis monacemebi. SerCevis pirvelad erTeuls (klasters) warmoadgenda saaRwero ubani. saaRwero ubnebis SerCeva ganxorcielda SemTxveviTi PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) meTodis gamoyenebiT. yovel SerCeul klasterSi interviuers ganesazRvra sawyisi wertili da moZraobis mimarTuleba. SerCevis meorad erTeuls warmoadgenda ojaxi. ojaxebis SerCeva ganxorcielda e.w. “SemTxveviTi xetialis” meTodiT. SerCevis saboloo erTeuls warmoadgenda respondenti.respondenti ojaxSi SeirCa asakis da sqesis niSnebiT (kvotebiT).

mosaxleobis politikuri preferenciebi

Tbilisis mosaxleoba, maTi politikuri preferenciebis mixedviT, oTx Tvisebrivad gansxvavebul jgufad SeiZleba daiyos. TiToeuli jgufis statusi da xvedriTi wili aseTia (ix. diagrama #1):

iago kaWkaWiSvili

sazogadoebrivi azris cvlilebebi 2008 wlis ruseT-saqarTvelos omis da 2009 wlis sagazafxulo krizisis Suqze

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diagramaze motanili monacemebi cxadad aCvenebs, rom agvistos omamde arsebuli reitingi mmarTvelma partiam omis Semdgom 6 Tvis ganmavlobaSi, 2009 wlis gazafxulamde SeinarCuna. maSasadame, agvistos oms, mTeli naxevari wlis ganmavlobaSi, xelisuflebis sazianod ar umuSavia. amisaTvis Tavad xelisuflebam izruna. SesaSuri organizebulobiT amuSavda sazogadoebasTan urTierTobis (PR) kampania, romelic cdilobda Seqmnas damajerebeli iluzia, rom saqarTvelo agvistos omidan Rirseulad gamovida. agvistos omis umZimesi Sedegebis sakompensaciod xelisuflebam daiwyo sazogadoebaSi mTeli rigi cnobierebis mazombirebeli “mesijebis” kultivireba. magaliTad: “saqarTvelom am omSi gaimarjva”, “Cven arasodes vyofilvarT teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenasTan ise axlos, rogorc axla”, “saqarTvelos daCqarebuli tempebiT gaawevrianeben natoSi”, “ruseTi moqceulia da kidev ufro metad moeqceva sayovelTao saerTaSoriso izolaciaSi” da a.S. am virtualurma “mesijebma” agvistos Semdeg, 6 Tvis manZilze, dekembris CaTvliT imuSava.

2009 wlis martidan Seiqmna iseTi viTareba, rodesac xelisuflebis “optimisturi proeqtebis” simulaciuroba da mZime realoba erTmaneTTan disonansSi movida. iwyeba mmarTveli partiis “daisi”, misi reitingi daRmasvlas iwyebs da maisis bolos uprecedento niSnulamde _ 11%-mde Camodis.

diagrama #1Tbilisel amomrCevelTan jgufebi politikuri

simpatiebis mixedviT

paralelurad, xdeba mosaxleobaSi opoziciuri ganwyobebis gaZliereba. 2009 wlis martSi arasaparlamento opoziciis mxardamWerTa raodenoba, 2008 wlis dekemberTan SedarebiT, mkveTrad matulobs da maisis bolosTvis umravlesobas aRwevs, rac gamovlinda kidec am periodis masobriv saprotesto gamosvlebSi.

Tumca, Tbiliseli amomrCevlebis politikuri simpatiebi kidev erTxel ganicdis mniSvnelovan “ryevebs” gazafxuli/zafxulis Semdeg _ axla ukve mmarTveli partiis sasargeblod da arasaparlamento opoziciis sazianod. 2009 wlis oqtomber-noembrisaTvis politikuri preferenciebis ganawilebis suraTi yvelaze metad emsgavseba omamde, 2008 wlis ivlisSi arsebul viTarebas.

rogor SeiZleba aixsnas mmarTveli partiis amgvari “reabilitacia”?

sagazafxulo saprotesto maraToni xelSesaxebi instituciuri cvlilebebis gareSe dasrulda, ramac opoziciuri politikuri Zalebis mimarT amomrCevelTa frustraciebi gaaCina. faqtia, rom xelisuflebas am brZolaSi araferi daukargavs, xolo opozicias – araferi (an, TiTqmis araferi) SeuZenia. saakaSvilma “bewvis xidze” gaiara da Tavisi Zalis demonstrireba moaxdina, xolo opoziciam am Zalis dasusteba ver SeZlo. rogorc Cans, amomrCevelTa

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garkveulma nawilma “Zlieris” gverdze yofna arCia da opozicias zurgi aqcia. cxadia, gasaTvaliswinebelia xelisuflebis mier warmoebuli kampania, romelic didZali finansuri Tu media resursis daxmarebiT, mizanmimarTulad amkvidrebs warmatebuli xelisuflebis imijs. cxadia, amomrCevelTa garkveul nawilze es kampania gavlenas axdens.

ra TaviseburebebiT gamoirCeva zemoaRniSnuli 4 jgufi?

am jgufebidan yvelaze metad antagonisturia xelisuflebis da arasaparlamento opoziciis amomrCevlebi _ sakiTxTa absoluturi umravlesobis mimarT isini sapirispiro poziciebze dganan.

yvelaze ufro moTanamSromle jgufebi aRmoCndnen xelisuflebis da saparlamento opoziciis amomrCevlebi.2

politikuri preferenciis armqoneebi “oportunistebi” arian: isini xan xelisuflebis TamaSs “TamaSoben”, xanac _ opoziciis.

miuxedavad imisa, rom TiToeuli jgufis damoukideblobis xarisxi sakmaod mniSvnelovania, isini, calkeul sakiTxebTan mimarTebaSi, mainc pouloben “saerTo enas” erTmaneTTan.

Tbilisis mosaxleobis dominantur pozicias, ama Tu im sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi, gansazRvravs swored aRniSnul jgufebs Soris daSorebis da daaxloebis xarisxi.

qvemoT vnaxavT, rom mocemuli jgufebisaTvis aRwerili tendenciebi dasturdeba ruseT-saqarTvelos omTan da sagazafxulo krizisTan dakavSirebul mTel rig sakiTxebTan mimarTebaSi.

2 unda aRiniSnos, rom saparlamento opoziciis ni-Sas praqtikulad faravs qristianul-demokratiuli kavSiri. sxva opoziciur Zalebs parlamentSi TiTqmis nulovani reitingi aqvT.

iyo Tu ara sazogadoeba loialuri saqarTvelos teritoriuli mTlianobis samxedro gziT aRdgenis mimarT?

rogorc uSualod agvistos omamde, ise omis Semdeg Catarebuli sociologiuri gamokiTxvebis Sedegebi aCvenebs, rom Tbilisis saarCevno asakis mosaxleobis gamokveTili umravlesoba (70%-mde) saomari moqmedebebis gamoyenebas afxazeTis da samxreT oseTis dasabruneblad skeptikurad uyurebs. metic: omis gziT problemebis mogvarebas kategoriulad ewinaaRmdegeba yoveli meore respondent (ix. diagrama #2):

diagrama #2

dauWerdiT Tu ara mxars afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis saqarTvelos

SemadgenlobaSi dabrunebas saomari moqmedebebis gamoyenebiT?

sazogadoebis aseTi antimilitaristuli ganwyobis miuxedavad, mainc unda iTqvas, rom saqme gvaqvs ara fundamentur mSvidobismoyvareobasTan, aramed e.w. “pragmatul pacifizmTan”: moqalaqeebi saomar operaciebs mxars ar uWeren, radgan gacnobierebuli aqvT am operaciebis uperspeqtivoba iseTi mowinaaRmdegis pirispir, rogoric ruseTia. racionaluri pragmatizmi qarTvelebma saaukuneebis ganmavlobaSi gamoimuSaves da, roca amis saWiroeba iyo, “CaTrevas Cayolas amjobinebdnen”. amdenad, ar unda gagvikvirdes, rom sazogadoebis

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damokidebuleba saomari moqmedebebis mimReblobis TvalsazrisiT praqtikulad ar Secvlila 2008 wlis ivlissa da seqtemberSi, imis miuxedavad, rom am periodma agvistos omis mtkivneul “filtrSi” gaiara. samxedro uperspeqtivobis “cocxali” gamocdileba xom saqarTvelom 1993 wlis afxazeTis omSi miiRo – maSin, rodesac ruseTi Ria agresiis sawarmoeblad gacilebiT xel-fexSekruli iyo da im droisTvis Tavad ruseTisTvisac ki ar mniSvnelobda argumenti afxazeTSi sakuTari moqalaqeebis dacvis Sesaxeb.

samwuxarod, e.w. “pragmatuli pacifizmi” ar aRmoaCnda saqarTvelos amJamindel xelisuflebas.

agvistos omis zogadi Sefaseba

rogor aRiqves ruseT-saqarTvelos omi Tbiliselebma _ pirvel rigSi rogorc: a)ruseTis mier dagegmil provokaciaze saqarTvelos wamogeba; b) ruseTis upirobo agresia saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg (“ruseTi yvela SemTxvevaSi ganaxorcielebda agresias saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg”) Tu g) saqarTvelos xelisuflebis iniciativa omis dasawyebad?

2008 wlis seqtemberSi Catarebuli gamokiTxvis SedegebiT, TbiliselTa yvelaze didi nawili (47%) miiCnevs, rom ruseTi yvela SemTxvevaSi ganaxorcielebda agresias saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg. mosazrebas, rom saqarTvelo ruseTis mier dagegmil provokaciaze wamoego, iziarebs gamokiTxulTa daaxloebiT mesamedi (35%). mesame (g) mosazrebas yvelaze naklebi mxardamWeri hyavs (ix. cxrili #1):

cxrili #1

icvleba Tu ara suraTi amomrCevelTa sxvadasxva jgufebSi?

xelisuflebis amomrCevlebSi 1. mniSvnelovnad izrdeba da gamokveTil umravlesobas (63%-s) aRwevs mosazreba, rom ruseTis agresia yvela SemTxvevaSi gardauvali iyo.arasaparlamento opoziiciis 2. amomrCevlebSi aqcentebi arsebiTad gadanacvlebulia da aq ufro im mosazrebas eniWeba upiratesoba, rom saqarTvelo ruseTis mier dagegmil provokaciaze wamoego (41%).

gavimarjveT Tu davmarcxdiT?

2008 wlis seqtemberSi, omis damTavrebidan 1 TveSi, TbiliselTa gamokiTxva aCvenebs ramdenadme odiozur Sedegs: 28% Tvlis, rom omiT gamowveuli danakargebis miuxedavad, saqarTvelo am omidan gamarjvebuli gamovida; umravlesoba (61%) sapirispiro poziciazea, xolo 11%-s ver gaurkvevia, agvistos omma gamarjveba mogvitana da marcxi.

aseT araadekvatur damokidebulebas TbiliselTa TiTqmis 40%-Si sxvadasxva wyaro asazrdoebs: a) warumatebeli samxedro operaciebidan gamomdinare frustraciebi aucileblad iTxovs moralur kompensacias, vinaidan pirdapir “urtyams” nacionalur Tavmoyvareobas. adamianTa garkveuli nawili Tavs gulwrfelad ityuebs da ijerebs, rom gamarjveba ara omis konkretul konteqstSi, aramed sadRac sxvagan, saqarTvelos warsul

romel mosazrebas eTanxmebiT?2008 wlis

seqtemberi(%)

saqarTvelo ruseTis mier dagegmil provokaciaze wamoego 35

ruseTi yvela SemTxvevaSi ganaxorcielebda samxedro agresias saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg

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saqarTvelos xelisuflebas Tavad hqonda gadawyvetili omis dawyeba da amisaTvis Sesaferisi dro monaxa

13

miWirs pasuxis gacema 6

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didebaSi an, sulac, momavlis perspeqtivaSi devs. aseTi adamianebi gulwrfelad gamodian quCebSi, ebmebian “cocxal jaWvSi” da sxva karnavalur scenebSi; b) muSaobs propagandistuli manqana, xelisufleba yvelanairad cdilobs gadafaros omis kvali: “cocxali jaWvis” organizebidan dawyebuli (rodesac marcxis simwares quCaSi “xorumis” SekveTili cekva aneitralebs), imiT damTavrebuli, rom Turme ufro kargicaa, rodesac ruseTi aRiarebs afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukideblobas, vinaidan ase ufro SiSvldeba ruseTis agresia, ase ufro axlovdeba teritoriebis dabrunebis perspeqtiva.

Tumca, gadis ramdenime Tve da xelovnuri (postmodernistebis enaze, “sinTetikuri”) gamarjvebiT Sepyrobil jgufSi TandaTan ifanteba iluziebi. ukve 2008 wlis dekemberSi Catarebuli gamokiTxva aCvenebs, rom Tbilisel amomrCevlebSi omSi gamarjvebis iluzia mxolod 8%-s SemorCa (ix. diagrama #3):

diagrama #3

rogor SeafasebdiT, mTlianobaSi, agvistos omis Sedegebs?

rogor pasuxobs 2008 wlis dekembrisTvis ukve transformirebul ganwyobebs xelisufleba? is xdeba iZulebuli, Secvalos gamarjvebis, rbilad rom vTqvaT, araadekvaturi mesiji da wina planze wamowios naklebad xisti, Tumca, kvlav omis umZimes Sedegebze sakuTari pasuxismgeblobis uarmyofeli gancxadeba, rom “omi jer ar damTavrebula, is grZeldeba da Sedegebze laparaki jer adrea”.

sainteresoa, rom aRniSnul sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi principulad gansxvavebuli damokidebulebebia sxvadasxva politikuri orientaciis mqone jgufebSi. movitanT 2008 wlis seqtembris gamokiTxvis Sedegebs:

xelisuflebis mxardamWerTa •umravlesoba (57%) miiCnevs, rom saqarTvelom agvistos omSi gaimarjva;

arasaparlamento opoziciis •amomrCevelTa 75% emxroba mosazrebas, rom saqarTvelo am omidan damarcxebuli gamovida; es pozicia wamyvania politikuri preferenciis armqoneTa Sorisac (72%);

saparlamento opoziciis •amomrCevlebSi iklebs omSi damarcxebis aRiareba (56%) da yoveli mesame (34%) aRniSnavs, rom saqarTvelo am omidan gamarjvebuli gamovida.

garTulda Tu gaiolda teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgena omis Sedegad?

am sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi SegviZlia mxolod 2008 wlis seqtembris gamokiTxvis Sedegebis motana:

marTalia, TbiliselTa gamokveTili umravlesoba - 65% _ Tanxmdeba imaSi, rom agvistos omis Sedegebi kidev ufro gaarTulebs saqarTvelos teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenas, Tumca, yuradRebas ufro ipyrobs optimistTa 26%-iani nawili, romelic fiqrobs, rom agvistos omis Semdeg teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenisTvis ukeTesi pirobebi Seiqmna. es isev is jgufia, romelic omSi saqarTvelos gamarjvebas ijerebs. isic logikuria, rom am jgufis wevrebi, rogorc wesi, xelisuflebis amomrCevlebi arian _ maTgan TiTqmis yoveli meore (48%) dakarguli teritoriebis dabrunebas imedianad uyurebs. arc isaa gasakviri, rom yvelaze skeptikurad ganwyobilebi, aRniSnul sakiTxTan mimarTebaSi, arasaparlamento opoziciis amomrCevlebi arian.detalurad gamokiTxvis Sedegebi

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mocemulia diagramaze #4:

diagrama #4

agvistos omis Semdeg ra viTareba Seiqmneba saqarTvelos teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenisaTvis?

(2008 wlis seqtemberi)

rac Seexeba TbiliselTa molodins, Tu konkretulad rodis dabrundeba samxreT oseTi da afxazeTi saqarTvelos SemadgenlobaSi, am sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT respondentTa poziciebi gayofilia: erTi, yvelaze optimisturi, nawili (20%) 2008 wlis seqtemberSi fiqrobda, rom dakargul teritoriebis dabruneba momavali 4 wlis ganmavlobaSia SesaZlebeli; arsebobdnen zomieri optimistebi (23%), romlebic teritoriebis dabrunebas 10 wlian periodSi elodebian; Tumca, yvelaze mravalricxovani mainc pesimisturad ganwyobili Tbiliselebia (42%), romlebic fiqroben, rom samxreT oseTis da afxazeTis SemoerTebas, ukeTes SemTxvevaSi, aTeulobiT wlebi dasWirdeba, xolo, uares SemTxvevaSi, am teritoriebs veRarasodes davibrunebT (ix. diagrama #5):

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diagrama #5

rodis dabrundeba samxreT oseTi da afxazeTi saqarTvelos SemadgenlobaSi? (2008 wlis seqtemberi)

gamokiTxva aCvenebs, rom xelisuflebis amomrCevlebi yvelaze optimisturad arian ganwyobilni dakarguli teritoriebis dabrunebasTan dakavSirebiT _ 56% elodeba, rom samxreT oseTs da afxazeTs uaxloesi 10 wlis periodSi davibrunebT. Sesabamisad, am jgufSi yvelaze mcire nawili (10%) fiqrobs, rom es teritoriebi sabolood davkargeT. sakmaod imedianad gamoiyurebian, agreTve, saparlamento opoziciis amomrCevlebi _ maTi umravlesoba (55%) dakarguli teritoriebis dabrunebas uaxloesi 10 wlis periodSi moelis. optimistebsa da pesimistebs Soris balansi, pesimistebis sasargeblod, yvelaze mkveTrad darRveulia arasaparlamento opoziciis amomrCevlebSi _ maTi 51% Tvlis, rom afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis SemoerTebas an aTeulobiT wlebi dasWirdeba, an es teritoriebi sabolood daikarga, xolo 39%-s dakarguli teritroriebis dabrunebis imedi uaxloes 10 wlian periodSi aqvs.

prezident saakaSvilis qmedebebis Sefaseba omamde da omis Semdeg

gamokiTxvebis Sedegebi aCvenebs, rom agvistos omma, misi dasrulebidan pirvel TveebSi, saakaSvilis qmedebebis mimarT TbiliselTa Sefaseba pozitiuri mimarTulebiT waiyvana. Tu saomari moqmedebebis dawyebamde prezidentis saqmianobis Sefasebebi, principSi, gayofilia, saomari moqmedebebis konteqstSi saakaSvilis qmedebebs ufro meti mxardamWeri uCndeba da pozitiur Sefasebebs ukve umravlesoba gamoTqvams. es advilad aixsneba: rusuli agresiis sayovelTao miuReblobis fonze, mosaxleobis met-nakleb simpaTias imsaxurebs yvela, vinc am agresias aSkarad daupirispirda - maT Soris, cxadia, m. saakaSvilic. rusuli okupacia imdenad moulodneli da Seuaracxmyofeli aRmoCnda

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qarTuli sazogadoebisaTvis, rom aman gamoiwvia sazogadoebis integrirebulobis da solidarobis xarisxis mniSvnelovani gazrda socialur-politikuri institutebis (maT Soris, saxelisuflo) garSemo. amomrCevlebma, agvistos omis Semdgom pirvel TveebSi, ver moaswres kritikuli mzeris gadanacvleba garedan SigniT, saerTo “mtris xatis” ideam gadafara xelisuflebis qmedebebis sazogadoebrivi kontroli. amas xeli Tavad xelisuflebis propagandamac Seuwyo, rodesac mTlianad saqarTvelo (da, maT Soris, saqarTvelos xelisufleba) gamocxadda msxverplad, romelsac ualternativo rusuli okupacia aucdeneli bediswerasaviT ergo.

sainteresoa, rom 2008 wlis Semodgomaze (gansakuTrebiT, seqtemberSi) saakaSvilis saqmianobis Sefasebis pozitiuri transformacia xelSesaxebia ara imdenad xelisuflebis (maTi Sefasebebi stabilurad dadebiTia omisagan damoukidebladac), aramed opoziciis (rogorc arasaparlamento, ise saparlamento) amomrCevlebSi _ prosaxelisuflo “gadaxrebi” opoziciurad ganwyobili eleqtoratis did nawils “auTenturobas” akargvinebs da saakaSvilis damcvelTa rigebSi ayenebs. magaliTisaTvis SegviZlia Semdegi monacemebi movitanoT: Tu agvistos omamde arasaparlamento opoziciis amomrCevelTa 66% saakaSvilis moRvaweobas uaryofiTi Sefasebis velSi aqcevs, agvistos omis Semdgom, pirvel xanebSi, uaryofiTad SemfasebelTa xvedriT wili am jgufSi 51%-mde ecema.

Tumca, gadis Tveebi da ukve 2009 wlis martisTvis viTareba radikalurad icvleba: TbiliselTa umravlesoba saakaSvilis moRvaweobis uaryofiT Sefasebaze koncentrirdeba. rasakvirvelia, uaryofiTi Sefasebis “lomis wils” agvistos omSi CarTvis da misi dramatuli Sedegebis gamo xeliuflebaze dakisrebuli pasuxismgebloba ganapirobebs.

miuxedavad amisa, 2009 wlis oqtombris bolosaTvis sazogadoebrivi azri kvlav diametralurad icvleba: m. saakaSvilis saqmianobis Sefaseba TbilisSi gamodis uaryofiTi velidan da “mdored”, magram mainc gadainacvlebs pozitiur velSi _ oqtombris bolosaTvis balansi saakaSvilis saqmianobis dadebiTad da uaryofiTad SemfasebelTa Soris aSkarad darRveulia dadebiTad SemfasebelTa sasargeblod (dadebiTad

SemfasebelTa 52% uaryofiTad SemfasebelTa 40%-is pirispir). saakaSvili ibrunebs agvistos omamde da omis Semdgom pirvel TveebSi arsebul poziciebs da axerxebs daZlios is Cavardna, rac mas 2009 wlis gazafxulma moutana.

aSkaraa, rom opoziciis xistma politikam Sedegi ar gamoiRo. sworebam erTaderT moTxovnaze: “gadadges saakaSvili da dainiSnos vadamdeli saprezidento arCevnebi”, nebismieri sxva potenciuri cvlileba (TviT vadamdeli saparlamento arCevnebis CaTvliT), rac daasustebda arsebul reJims, ara mxolod miuRebelad, aramed lamis “nacionalur Ralatad” gamoacxada. prezidentis gadadgomis moTxovnas ar moeZebna aranairi alternativa. kuriozuli da ironiuli isaa, rom mniSvnelovani cvlilebebis inciatorad TviT xelisufleba gamodis da aqtiurad lobirebs iseT proeqtebs, rogoricaa saarCevno kanonmdeblobis da saarCevno administraciis mniSvnelovani Secvla, konstituciuri cvlilebebi prezidentis Zalauflebis Sesamcireblad da parlamentis uflebamosilebis gasazrdelad, Tbilisis meris pirdapiro arCevnebi da sxva. amasTan, xelisufleba yvelanairad cdilobs ar gaimeoros 2007 wlis 7 noembris sabediswero Secdomebi da ar aRkveTos aqciebi Zaladobrivi meTodebis totaluri gamoyenebiT. is sxva taqtikas irCevs: jer-erTi, rogorc aRiniSna, cdilobs Tavad iyos TavisTavad pozitiuri cvlilebebis iniciatori; meorec, xelisufleba uars ambobs Zalismieri meTodebis gamoyenebaze, Tumca, am meTodebs fragmentulad, farulad, “porciebad” iyenebs (amis magaliTia momitingeTa “Rameuli” darbevebi da sxva.)3.

sazogadoebisTvis araadekvaturi molodinebis SeqmniT da mouqneli politikiT arasaparlamento opozicia “daTvur samsaxurs” uwevs xelisuflebas da piradad m. saakaSvils.

saakaSvilis saqmianobis Sefasebis dinamika 2008 wlis ivlisidan moyolebuli mocemulia diagramaze #6:

3 am mimarTulebiT, xelisufleba “kalapotidan” jer 2009 wlis 6 maiss (Tbilisis policiis sammarTvelosTan Sekre-bili momitingeebis winaaRmdeg kaseturi tyviebis gamoye-neba), xolo mogvianebiT 15 ivniss (mSvidobian momitin-geebze Tavdasxma) amovarda, Tumca, es movlenebi, Tavisi masStabiT, mainc ar aRmoCnda 7 noembris dari sabediswero ukanonobis analogiuri.

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saakaSvilis, rogorc prezidentis, mimarT

diagrama #6

rogor afasebT mixeil saakaSvilis saqmianobasprezidentis postze?

sazogadoebrivi mxardaWeris dramatuli cvlilebebi kargad Cans, agreTve, mis mimarT TbiliselTa mier gamoxatuli ndobis cvlilebis konteqstSic 2008 wlis ivlisidan 2009 wlis noembramde. 2008 wlis rogorc ivlisis, ise seqtembris monacemebiT m. saakaSvili Tbiliseli amomrCevlebis ndobis velSi eqceva. 2008 wlis dekembridan moyolebuli m. saakaSvili Tbilisel amomrCevelTa undoblobis velSi inacvlebs mzardi tendenciiT, romelic Tavis piks 2009 wlis maisSi aRwevs, rodesac mis mimarT gamoxatuli ndobis saSualo maCvenebeli _1.5-s aRwevs. Tumca, ukve 2009 wlis ivlisSi saakaSvilis mimarT amomrCevlis undobloba mcirdeba (_1.0) da gviani SemodgomisTvis (oqtomberi-noemberi) pozitiur ganzomilebaSi gadadis. amis mizezi xelisuflebis „saSemodgomo reabilitaciis“ im mizezebSi unda veZeboT, razec zemoT ukve iyo saubari.

m. saakaSvilis mimarT gamoxatuli ndobis

maCveneblebis dinamika mocemulia diagramaze

#7:

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diagrama #7

ramdenad endobiT mixeil saakaSvils?(saSualo Sefaseba)

SeniSvna: ndoba fasdeba 10 qulian skalaze

(-5-dan +5-mde), sadac “-5” aRniSnavda srul

undoblobas, xolo “+5” srul ndobas;

diagramaze mocemulia ndobis saSualo

monacemebi, sadac neitraluri maCvenebelia

“0” qula. “0”-ze naklebi aRniSnavs undoblobis

vels, xolo “0”-ze meti – ndobis vels.

kidev erTi indikatori, romelic aCvenebs TbiliselTa damokidebulebis mniSvnelovan cvlilebas, ukavSirdeba iseT radikalur politikur proeqts, rogoricaa m. saakaSvilis gadadgoma da vadamdeli saprezidento arCevnebis daniSvna.

2008 wlis seqtemberSi am politikur moTxovnas mxars uWerda TbiliselTa 23%, xolo ewinaaRmdegeboda _ 65%. maSasadame, im droisaTvis, Tbiliselebs ar hqondaT saakaSvilis xelisuflebis, Tundac vadamdeli arCevnebis gziT, Secvlis mzaoba da skeptikurad ar uyurebdnen saakaSvilis Zalauflebas. Sesabamisad, nebismieri politikuri Zalisxmeva, romelic mimarTuli iqneboda arsebuli xelisuflebis vadamde Secvlisaken, Tbiliseli amomrCevlebis mxridan seriozul mxardaWeras ver moipovebda. 2009 wlis martisTvis viTareba am mimarTulebiTac kardinalurad Seicvala: m. saakaSvilis gadadgomis moTxovnas mxars uWers ukve yoveli meore saarCevno asakis mqone Tbiliseli. igive damokidebuleba

narCundeba maisSic. es erTmniSvnelovnad miuTiTebs imaze, rom gazafxulze, q. TbilisSi, m. saakaSvils seriozuli problemebi Seeqmna legitimaciis TvalsazrisiT

Tumca, Semodgomam am TvalsazrisiTac gadaanacvla aqcentebi: oqtomber-noemberSi vadamdeli saprezidento arCevnebis Catarebas ufro meti mowinaaRmdege hyavs, vidre – mxardamWeri.

vadamdeli saprezidento arCevnebis mxardaWeris dinamika, moyolebuli 2008 wlis seqtembridan, mocemulia diagramaze #8:

diagrama #8

uWerT Tu ara mxars saqarTveloSi vadamdeli saprezidento arCevnebis

Catarebas?

politikur partiaTa reitingebi

rogorc 2009 wlis martSi, maisSi, ivlissa da oqtomber-noemberSi Catarebuli kvlevebi aCvenebs, am perodSi mxolod 6 politikuri partia/bloki axerxebs, met-naklebad stabilurad, 4%-iani barieris gadalaxvas:

nacionaluri moZraoba •

aliansi saqarTvelosTvis •

leiboristuli partia •

erovnuli forumi •

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qristianul-demokratiuli kavSiri•

levan gaCeCilaZis gundi• 4 aRniSnuli reitinguli politikuri Zalebis mimarT gamoxatuli mxardaWeris cvlilebis dinamika mocemulia diagramaze #9:

diagrama #9

diagramidan Cans, rom bolo 8 Tvis manZilze yvelaze didi cvlileba nacionaluri moZraobis reitingma ganicada – 2009 wlis gazafxulTan da zafxulTan SedarebiT gvian Semodgomaze mmarTveli partiis mimarT Tbiliseli amomrCevlebis mxardaWera mniSvnelovnad gaizarda. nacionaluri moZraoba, misi lideris msgavsad, Tavis sasargeblod imkis warumatebeli opoziciuri maraTonis Sedegebs (amis Taobaze zemoT ukve iTqva).

aRsaniSnavia, rom nacionaluri moZraobis reitingi opoziciur politikur ZalTa mimarT mxardaWeris Semcirebis paralelurad gaizarda. Tumca, ar iqneba swori imis Tqma, rom mmarTvel partias amomrCeveli mis mimarT manamde opoziciurad ganwyobilTa nakadidan Seemata. ufro savaraudoa, rom nacionaluri moZraobis mxardamWerTa rigebSi e.w. meryevi amomrCeveli “gadabargda”, romelsac ar hqonda Tavisi politikuri simpatiebi gamokveTili 2009 wlis gazafxulze da elodeboda, vin moipovebda warmatebas am orTabrZolaSi. rac Seexeba opoziciur politikur ZalTa mxardamWerebs, maTma

4 l. gaCeCilaZem moZraoba “daicavi saqarTvelo” 2009 wlis ivlisSi Seqmna; amitom, mis garSemo gaerTianebul politikosebs “l. gaCeCilaZis gundi” vuwodeT.

xval rom saparlamento arCevnebi gaimar-Tos, romel politikur bloks an partias

dauWerdiT mxars pirvel rigSi?

nawilma frustracia ganicada da nihilisturad ganwyobilTa (pasuxi: “arcerTs ar davuWerdi mxars”) an meryevTa (pasuxi: “miWirs pasuxis gacema”) nakads SeuerTda. am mosazrebas amyarebs is, rom gazafxulTan da zafxulTan SedarebiT gazrdilia frustrirebul amomrCevelTa xvedriTi wili (ix. diagrama #10):

diagrama #10nihilistTa da meryevTa xvedriTi wili (jamSi amomrCevelTa mesamedi) kidev erT rameze miuTiTebs _ es aris potenciur amomrCevelTa soliduri niSa, romlis dakavebis masStabebs (ama Tu im politikuri Zalis mier) SeuZlia arsebiTad Secvalos politikur ZalTa gadanawilebis suraTi.

xval rom saparlamento arCevnebi gaimarTos, romel politikur bloks an

partias dauWerdiT mxars?

sagareo-politikuri orientaciebi

kidev erTi sakiTxi, romelzec radikaluri gavlena iqonia agvistos omma, saqarTvelos sagareo orientacia da masTan dakavSirebuli saxelmwifoebrivi usafrTxoebaa. bolo, sul mcire, 15 weliwadi saqarTvelos sazogadoebaSi mizanmimarTulad da Sedegianad Sendeboda politika, romelic yvelaze sasurvel sagareo orientaciad saqarTvelos natoSi integracias miiCnevs. SeiZleba Tamamad iTqvas, rom, ruseT-saqarTvelos omamde, sazogadoebrivi azri saqarTveloSi warmatebiT adaptirda am sagareo perspeqtivasTan, rasac 2008 wlis agvistomde Catarebuli yvela gamokiTxva adasturebs.

Tumca, dasaxelebulma omma moqalaqeebSi natoSi integraciis dominanturad

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miCneuli politikuri Rirebulebis gadafaseba gamoiwvia. pirveli seriozuli bzari natosken swrafvas ukve 2008 wlis seqtemberSi uCndeba, romelic sul ufro Rrmavdeba da 2009 wlis martSi es politikuri proeqti Tmobs upiratesobas. marTalia, Crdilo-atlantikuri aliansis mimarT calkeuli imedgacruebebi omamdec arsebobda (gansakuTebiT, map-is miRebasTan dakavSirebuli diplomatiuri koliziebis gamo), magram pirvelad swored ruseT-saqarTvelos omis Semdeg Seiqmna iseTi viTareba, rodesac natoSi integracias gauCnda konkurentunariani alternatiuli standarti saqarTvelos mier neitralitetis SenarCunebis saxiT. sainteresoa, rom natosgan “gamoTavisuflebuli energia” ar moxmarda arc evrokavSirSi Sesvlis da arc ruseTTan mokavSireobis mxardaWeras. Tumca, rusulma “Ceqmam”, samwuxarod, Tavisi nayofi mainc gamoiRo _ natoSi integracias sazogadoebrivi azri aRar ganixilavs prioritetul strategiad.

diagrama #11 kargad aCvenebs, Tu rogor kargavs natoSi integraciis proeqti mxardaWeras Tbilisel amomrCevlebSi:

diagrama #11

* * *

Tu mokled SevajamebT, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom 2008 wlis ruseT-saqarTvelos samxedro dapirispirebam da 2009 wlis sagazafxulo krizisma Semdegi traeqtoria moxaza Tbilisel amomrCevelTa damokidebulebebsa da ganwyobebSi:

agvistos omis mZime Sedegebidan •gamomdinare, 2009 wlis gazafxulze Zlierdeba Seurigebeli opoziciuri ganwyobebi (Sesabamisad, izrdeba arasaparlamento opoziciuri politikuri Zalebis mimarT mxardaWera), Tumca, opoziciuri frontis warumateblobis gamo, xelisufleba (mmarTveli partia da prezidenti), 2009 wlis SemodgomisTvis, axerxebs uRrmesi krizisidan Tavis daRwevas da politikur reabilitacias. es, Tavis mxriv, seriozulad azaralebs arasaparlamento opoziciis gavlenas amomrCevlebSi;

saqarTvelos natoSi integracia aRar •aris dominanturi sagareo-politikuri orientiri; mas uCndeba alternativa _ saqarTvelos mier neitralitetis SenarCuneba.

saqarTvelos saxelmwifoebrivi usafrTxoebisTvis romeli gza iqneba

ufro efeqturi?

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Sesavali

2008 wlis agvistos omis Sedegebs mTeli msoflio aanalizebs. Sedegebis gaanalizeba da gamowvevebis daZlevisaTvis realuri perspeqtivebis dasaxva, saqarTvelos, rogorc damarcxebul qveyanas, yvelaze metad Wirdeba. es ki, samoqalaqo sazogadoebas, saeqsperto jgufebs, faqtobriv xelisuflebas da ZalauflebisaTvis mebrZol opozicias erTianad moeTxoveba. analizi saSualebas gvaZlevs arsebuli gamowvevebi Zvel da axlad warmoSobil gamowvevebad davyoT. amiT xeli SevuwyoT maTi daZlevis gzebisa da ganWvretadi perspeqtivis dasaxvas. iseTi perspeqtivisa, romelic warmosaxuli iqneba sazogadoebisaTvis misaReb SedegebSi, romlis Tvisobrivi da raodenobrivi maxasiaTeblebi advilad gaizomeba. Sesabamisad, es statia ar eZRvneba mxolod omis Semdgom kidev ufro gamZafrebuli konfliqtebis mowesrigebis sakiTxebs. is mimarTulia im gamowvevebis daZlevisaken, romlebic erovnuli masStabisaa da Cveni sazogadoebis yvela jgufs erTnairad awuxebs. es ki, Tavis mxriv, imedi gvaqvs, teritoriuli (eTnikuri) konfliqtebis gadawyvetasac Seuwyobs xels.

Zveli da axali gamowvebebi

Zveli gamowvevebidan, Tamamad SeiZleba iTqvas, rom arcerT maTTagans, romelic safrTxes uqmnida mTel sazogadoebas da mis msaxur saxelmwifos, ar daukargavs Tavisi simwvave. samwuxarod, erovnuli mniSvnelobis xuTi gamowvevidan mxolod erTze SeiZleba iTqvas, rom adgili aqvs nawilobriv daZlevas. yvela sxva gamowvevas simwvave ar moklebia. esenia:

zaqaria qucnaSvili

saqarTvelos demokratia 2009 wlis gamowvevaTa prizmaSi

demokratiis damkvidreba;1.

Tavisufali sabazro ekonomikis aSeneba;2.

siRaribisa da umuSevrobis damarcxeba;3.

korufciis damarcxeba;4.

teritoriuli da eTnikuri konfliqtebis5.

gadawyveta.

axali gamowvevebis saxiT gaCnda aranaklebi safrTxis matarebeli faqtorebi. Zvel gamowvevebze Tu metnaklebad warmoebs msjeloba da sazogadoebaSi maTi arsebobis Taobaze aris maRali xarisxis Tanxmoba, axlebidan mxolod erTze midis msjeloba da isic nawilobriv. yvela sxva danarCeni arc ki aris aRiarebuli, rogorc omis Semdgom warmoSobili garemoeba.

es gamowvevebia:

1. ramodenime saxelmwifos mier aRiarebuli saqarTvelos (okupirebuli) teritoriebi da amis gamo warmoSobili safrTxeebi;

2 saqarTvelos saxelmwifos CamorCena regionis liderobisaTvis maraTonze;

3. sazogadoebis reorientaciis dawyeba, anu dasavleTidan Semobrunebis niSnebi.

niSandoblivia, rom axali gamowvevebis warmoSoba, metwilad, 2008 wlis gamowvevebis ver da ar daZlevis pirdapiri da uSualo Sedegia. maTi arsebobis ar aRiareba, fulis xarjva ZiriTadad, infrastruqturul proeqtebze, sadResaswaulo dReebis aRniSvnasa da represiuli aparatis Senaxvaze damatebiTi gamowvevebis warmoSobasac ganapirobebs. maTi prognozireba Zneli ar

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aris da SemdgomSi SevecdebiT samomavalo safrTxeebic davasaxeloT. samwuxarod, damokidebuleba Zveli gamowvevebisadmi ar Secvlila da 2009 weli am TvalsazrisiT kidev ufro gauaresebis weli gamodga. nacvlad imisa, rom Zvelisa da axlis daZlevis gzebi moZebniliyo, omis mizezebi da damdgari Sedegebi gaanalizebuliyo, dasaxuliyo perspeqtiva, rac grZelvadiani TvalsazrisiT, yvela gamowvevis daZlevas da axali gamowvevebis prevencias moaxdenda, saxelmwifo politika saerTod ar Seicvala. sazogadoebis zurgs ukan gadawyvetilebebis miReba, gaumWvirvaloba da CaurTveloba kvlav darCa marTvis Seucvlel principebad. am Temebze diskusia araTu stimulirebuli, aramed saerTod ukugdebuli iqna. gavyveT 2009 wels, omis Semdegomi saqarTvelos pirvel weliwads da demokratiis mimarT gamowvevebis prizmaSi gavarkvioT, Tu rasTan gvaqvs saqme.

demokratiis damkvidrebamedia, Sekreba da manifestacia, sasamarTlo, arCevnebi

demokratiis damkvidreba rCeba upirveles gamowvevad yvela sxva gamowvevTa Soris. qarTul sazogadoebaSi kargad ar aris gacnobierebuli is, Tu raoden didi mniSvneloba aqvs demokratias aramarto stabilurobis, aramed keTildReobis (siRaribisa da umuSevrobis damarcxebis), sabazro ekonomikis ganviTarebis, konfliqtebis daregulirebis da, sabolood, qveynis usafTxoebis miRwevisaTvis. is, rom WeSmarit demokratiaSia namdvili Zala da ara calke aRebuli tankebis raodenobaSi. is, rom ucxouri sesxebiTa da saqarTvelos gadamxdelebisaTvis ukanonod warTmeuli TanxiT Sekowiwebuli biujetis parametrebiT manipulireba ar aris siZlieris WeSmariti sazomi. naklebad gaTviTcnobierebul sazogadoebaSi, demokratiis miznebiT SefuTuli, sinamdvileSi ki avtokratiuli miswrafebebiT nasazrdoebi, araefeqturi gadawyvetilebebi aCens gancdas, rom demokratia Tavs moxveuli sistemaa, rom mas ar SeuZlia Cveulebriv adamianebs mSvidoba da keTildReoba moutanos.

demokratiis saburveliT (lozungiT)

gatarebulma bevrma mcdarma reformam am ganwyobis gamtkicebas kidev ufro metad Seuwyo xeli. amas daemata isic, rom Cven sazogadoebasTan, romelic 20 weli qveynis marTva–gamgeobis da ekonomikis Secvlis gamo seriozul transformacias ganicdida, mizanmimarTulad da sistemurad aravis ar umuSavia. ar umuSavia im kavSiris dasanaxeblad, rom demokratiuli Rirebulebebi qarTuli kulturis nawilia, rom masze damynobiT aRmocenebuli sistema Cveni cxovrebis wesicaa da, rac mTavaria, is samarTlianobaze damyarebuli mSvidobis da masobrivi keTildReobis miRwevis saSualebas iZleva. Cvens regionSi mxolod mas SeuZlia konfliqtebis gadawyvetis SesaZleblobebi gaaCinos. demokratiis roli da mniSvneloba arasodes gamxdara Cveni xelisuflebis gansjis sagani. cota xnis win, saqarTvelos prezidentisaTvis am Temaze, mis pirad TviTfrinavSi, Jurnalistis dasmul SekiTxvaze, konteqstis gaTvalsiwinebiT, pasuxi iyo gamaognebeli: „demokratia es momavali Taobebis gazrdazea damokidebuli da es maTi mosvlis Semdeg moxdebao“. gamodis, rom saqarTvelos mosaxleobis naxevarze meti verasodes eRirseba demokratiis damkvidrebas da, aqedan gamomdinare, sxva didi gamowvevebis daZlevas.

modiT, SevafasoT is ramodenime aucilebeli instituti, ris gareSec demokratia, rogorc marTvis (RirebulebaTa erTianobis) sistema, verasodes ver iqceva funqcionirebad demokratiad.

media

mediis Tavisufleba izomeba Semdegi elementebis mdgomareobiT: informaciis xelmisawvdomobiT, gamoxatvis (gavrcelebis) TavisuflebiT, gavrcelebuli informaciis saimedoobiT, mauwyeblebis mesakuTreTa gamWvirvalobiT, profesiuli muSaobisaTvis xelis ar SeSliT, Jurnalistis SromiTi anazRaurebis odenobiT, samuSao adgilis da piradi usafrTxoebis daculobiT, saredaqcio damoukideblobis mdgomareobiT, cenzuris ar arsebobiT, da bolos, mauwyeblobisadmi mosaxleobis ndobiTa da popularobiT. CamoTvlili elementebi kvlav rCeba problemurad da ganvlili 2009 wlisaTvis Tvalis gadavlebiTac ki cxadi xdeba, rom arcerTi am mimarTulebiT

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garRvevas an mniSvnelovan progres adgili ar hqonia.

bevri informacia kvlav xelmiuwvdomelia JurnalistebisaTvis da, aqedan gamodinare, sazogadoebisTvisac. 2009 weli Sevida saqarTvelos istoriaSi wlad, rodesac qveynis umaRlesi saxelmwifo-politikuri Tanamdebobis pirebi agrZelebdnen JurnalistebisTvis Tavisi arsiT sajaro informaciis ar gacemis process. xSirad gavrcelebuli informacia (gansakuTrebiT, saerTo mauwyeblebis mier) arasaimedoa misi usworobis an gadaumowmeblobis gamo. aSkarad igrZnoba sainformacio politikis ara faqtebze da movlenebze dayrdnobiT, aramed viwro saxelisuflo interesebis karnaxiT warmoeba. saerTo (erovnuli) satelevizio mauwyeblebis mesakuTreebi sazogadoebisaTvis kvlav ucnobia da isev grZeldeba profesiuli muSaobisaTvis xelis SeSla. Juranalistebis samuSao adgili da piradi usafrTxoeba kvlav daucvelia. erTaderTi SemTxveva, rodesac xelisuflebam aRiara Jurnalistebis profesiuli muSaobisaTvis xelis SeSla da maTze fizikuri Zaladoba, es gaxldaT 2009 wlis 9 aprilis aqciebTan dakavSirebiT Tbilisis policiis sammarTvelosTan ganviTarebuli movlenebi. es gamonaklisi dafiqsirda mxolod sajarod bodiSis moxdiT da telekompaniebisaTvis warTmeuli teqnikis dabrunebiT.

media sivrcis sakanonmdeblo sferoSi 5 kanoni moqmedebs. esenia: „reklamis Sesaxeb“, „sityvis da gamoxatvis Tavisuflebis Sesaxeb“, „mauwyeblobis Sesaxeb“, „saqarTvelos zogadi administraciuli kodeqsi“ da „saqarTvelos sisxlis samarTlis kodeqsi“. „mauwyeblobis Sesaxeb“ saqarTvelos kanonis garda sxva, romelime kanonSi raime mniSvnelovani cvlileba ar ganxorcielebula. Tu ar CavTvliT „reklamis Sesaxeb“ kanonSi Setanil im cvlilebas, romliTac mauwyeblebs kvlav gaugrZeldaT alkoholuri da spirtiani sasmelebis reklamirebis (anu mavne zemoqmedebis saqmianobis) ufleba.

„mauwyeblobis Sesaxeb“ kanonSi 5 cvlileba Sevida. am cvlilebebidan mxolod erTi cvlileba iyo mimarTuli sameurveo sabWos uflebebis gazrdisaken. kerZod, gadaudebeli aucileblobisas, programebi, gadacemebi, filmebi, reportaJebi, kulturuli

RonisZiebebi an/da masTan dakavSirebuli momsaxurebis Sesyidva mauwyeblobis xelmZRvanelebs SeeZloT, mxolod sameurveo sabWos winaswari Tanxmobis safuZvelze. es erTaderTi gazrdili ufleba imave wlis bolos kanonSi Setanili sxva cvlilebis safuZvelze gauqmebuli iqna. cvlilebidan aRsaniSnavia sameurveo sabWos wevraTa raodenobis gazrda 6-dan 15 meurvemde da maTTvis televiziis biujetidan gamoyofili sahonoraro Tanxebis orjer momateba. samwuxarod, xelisuflebis mxridan seriozuli msjeloba sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis marTvis gaumjobesebaze saerTad ar warmoebula. aravis dausvams SekiTxva – sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblobis 4 sxvadasxva saSualebas (televiziebi da radio) sameurveo Tu mmarTveli sabWo unda xelmZRvanelobdes, ra gansxvavebaa meurveobis funqciis matarebel organosa da mmarTvel organos Soris. saerTod, gvinda iseTi uuflebo sameurveo sabWo, romelic mis mier daniSnuli generaluri direqtoris saqmianobis Sesamowmeblad, auditoris mowvevisaTvisac ki, imave Sesamowmebli piris Tanxmobazea damokidebuli?

Sekreba da manifestacia

Sekrebisa da manifestaciis Tavisufleba izomeba am uflebebis realizaciis meqanizmebis simartiviT da misi dacvis xarisxiT. demokratiis gazomvis kidev erTi mniSvnelovani maxasiaTebelia masobrivi protestze xelisuflebis reagirebis kultura. 2009 weli saqarTvelos uaxloes istoriaSi Sevida wlad, roca xalxma daamtkica misi moqalaqeobrivi Segnebis maRali done da mSvidobiani xasiaTi.

samoqalaqo sazogadoebas Tanamedrove saxelmwifoSi Tavisi uflebebi da movaleobebi aqvs. misi mTavari movaleobaa, swori miznebis dasaxva da maTi miRwevisaTvis SemoTavazebuli gzebis realurobisa da efeqturobis gazomva. am pasuxismgeblobis gamoxatuleba iyo, SoTa rusTavelis ZeglTan, 15 martis sazogadoebrivi Sekreba, rodesac erTiani samoqalaqo sazogadeoba gamovida quCaSi lozungiT: ”miSa wadi, momavalno - gafrxildiT”. es aqcia swored pasuxismgebeli sazogadoebis CamoyalibebisaTvis xelisSewyobas isaxavda miznad. samoqalaqo sazogadoebis yvela jgufisaTvis unda gveTqva, rom swored mas

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evaleba miznis Camoyalibeba da sazogadoebriv dakveTad gadaqceva. xolo politikur Zalebs sazogadoebis mier dasaxuli miznis miRwevisaTvis mxolod realuri gzebis SemoTavazeba da ganxorcieleba moeTxovebaT.

marTlac, 15 martis sazogadoebriv organizaciaTa mier organizebulma mravalaTasianma Sekrebam daadastura, rom sazogadoeba iTxovda cvlilebebs, rac SemdgomSi 9 aprils opoziciur politikur ZalTa mier erToblivad dawyebuli masobrivi protestis arnaxuli xangrZlivobiTa da masSi monawile adamianTa gansakuTrebuli mravalricxovnobiT dadasturda.

sazogadoebas moqmedi xelisuflebis wasvla da axali xelisuflebis arCevis SesaZleblobis micema surda. gazafxulis masobrivi protestis dros mmarTveli xelisufleba gulxeldakrefili ar yofila. is moqmedebda mis mier SemuSavebuli gegmis mixedviT. kerZod, man Seqmna araformaluri bandebi da Tbilisis quCebSi aqciis wevrebze nadiroba gamoacxada. nacvlad imisa, rom daecva, maTze fizikuri ZaladobiT, SiSis grZnobis gaRviveba scada. materialuri Semowirulobebis gamReb pirebze kidev ufro meti kontroli daawesa. mimdinareobda aqciebis fotografireba da video Cawera. suraTebiT identificirebuli moqalaqeebi policiuri damuSvebis obieqtebi xdebodnen. es, xSirad, maTi da maTi ojaxis wevrebis samsaxurebidan daTxovniT an kidev uaresi administraciuli Tu sisxlis samarTlebrivi patimrobiT sruldeboda. mZime satvirTo Tu samgzavro transportisaTvis akrZaluli iqna qalaqSi gadaadgileba. patruli manqanebs da avtobusebs itacebda da ar aZlevda masobrivi protestis adgilebisaken gadaadgilebis saSualebas. teqnika quCebisa Tu Senobebis blokirebisaTvis ar SeiZleboda, rom yofiliyo gamoyenebuli. mxolod cocxali adamianebiT dakavebuli saknebi SeiZleba gamxdariyo piketirebis obieqti.

saknebSi mjdomi adamianebiT piketebis mowyoba Tbilisis oTx adgilas: televiziasTan, parlametTan, Tavisuflebis moedanze da prezidentis avlabris rezidenciasTa, did adamianur resurss da solidur materialur danaxarjebs moiTxovda. es ki xangrZlivvadiani protestis pirobebSi, protestantebs asustebda, xolo Casafrebul

monadireebs aZlierebda.

xelisuflebis mier SemuSavebuli gegmis erT–erTi sakvanZo amocana iyo protestis Tbilisis farglebSi lokalizeba. amisaTvis mimdinareobda totaluri kontroli dedaqalaqSi Semosul yvela samgzavro–satransporto saSualebaze. paralelurad, saerTaSoriso Tanamegobrobas imaSi arwmunebdnen, rom mzad iyvnen dialogisaTvis da, ubralod, opoziciis saxiT, areulobis momxre axirebul xalxTan hqondaT saqme.

ra Tqma unda, politikuri opoziciac ar yofila umoqmedo. 9 aprilidan warmoebuli masobrivi protesti 26 maisis stadionze 80 aTasi Tanamoazris Sekrebamde, misi scenariT, aRmavali xaziT viTardeboda. amis magaliTi iyo aramarto Tbilisis centraluri raionebis pirdapiri da uSualo gakontroleba, aramed isic, rom xelisuflebis ganStoebebis saSualo rgolebis warmomadgenlebma, protestis niSnad, daiwyes Tanamdebobebis datoveba. Tavisuflebis moyvarulma bevrma Jurnalistma xmamaRla gamoTqva ukmayofileba da propagandis saSualebebi datova. samxedro mosamsaxureebma daicves Tavisi mxedruli Rirseba da jer uari Tqves ukanono brZanebis, masobriv protesis darbevis, Sesrulebaze, xolo Semdgom uari Tqves amoraluri brZanebis, anu samxedro aRlumSi im tankebiT monawileobaze, romel tankebSic jer kidev maTi daRupuli TanamebrZolebis sisxlis suni idga. xalxze Tavdasxmebis SesaCerebelad cnobili sportsmenebis TaosnobiT saxalxo patruli Seiqmna, rac, ukiduresi aucileblobis SemTxvevaSi, TviTorganizebis gziT, xalxis dacvis erT–erTi yvelaze kargi da Sedegis momtani magaliTi aRmoCnda.

saerTaSoriso TvalsazrisiT, opozicia gaxda molaparakebis mxare. is yvela Sexvedraze, rogorc movlenebze faqtobrivi gavlenis momxdeni subieqti iyo warmodgenili. aman mas civilizebuli sazogadoebisaTvis alternatiuli informaciiis miwodebis saSualeba misca, ramac, Tavis mxriv, dasavleTSi movlenebis calmxrivi Sefaseba SeaCera.

Tu vTanxmdebiT, rom sazogadoebis dakveTa axali xelisuflebis arCevis SesaZleblobis micemaSi mdgomareobs, maSin

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masobrivi protestis savaraudo miRwevebi unda gamoxatuliyo an saprezidento, an saparlamento an adgilobrivi riggareSe arCevnebis daniSvnaSi. miRweulia yvelaze mcire Sedegi. es aris adgilobrivi xelisuflebis organoebis arCevnebis 6 TviT adre gadmoweva.

sazogadoebis Secdoma imaSi mdgomareobs, rom man dakveTis Camoyalibeba ki SesZlo, magram ver moaxerxa misi miRwevisaTvis opoziciis mier SemoTavazebuli gzebis realurobisa da efeqturobis Sefaseba. gaTvla masobriobaze, xangrZlivobasa da xelisuflebis sindisis kavSirze, mcdari aRmoCnda. albaT, amis gamovlinebaa, rodesac sazogadeba, maT Soris „damoukidebel eqspertTa klubi“ adgilobriv arCevnebSi monawileebisadmi svams SekiTxvas da iTxovs pasuxs: Tu isev ise moxda, rogorc bevrjer momxdara da arCevnebi gayalbda, arsebobs Tu ara raime gegma ”b“ momdevno nabijebisTvis?

opozicias arc 2008 da arc 2009 wels ar eyo gabeduleba xelisuflebis Secvlis gardauvali aucilebloba realobad eqcia. adamianebis mkvlelobebze, ukanono dapatimrebebze, sakuTrebis xelyofaze, omis danaSaulebebze, gayalbebuli saprezidento da saparlameto arCevnebze meti mizezi SeuZlebelia rom 21–e saukuneSi, Cvens kontinetze myofma romelime xelisuflebam Caidinos. masobrivi protestis reagirebis gareSe datovebis SemTxvevaSi am mravalTagan erTic ki sakmarisia xelisuflebis riggareSe SecvlisaTvis. magram, ara saqarTveloSi...

amrigad, 2009 wlis masobrivi protesis miRwevebia: 1. dedaqalaqis meris pirdapiri wesiT arCeva da adgilobriv arCevnebis 6 TviT adre daniSvna; 2. moqalaqeobrivi Segnebis zrda, rac samTviani masobrivi protestis dros Zaladobaze, vandalizmsa da yaCaRobaze uaris TqmaSi gamoixateboda; 3. saerTaSoriso asparezze saqarTvelos xelisuflebisadmi damokidebulebis Secvla da arasaparlamento opoziciis molaparakebis mxared aRiareba.

mTavari Secdomebia: 1. molodini protestis masobrioba–xangrZlivobis zegavlenisa xelisuflebis adeqvatur qmedebaze (anu gadadgomis molodini); 2. 9 aprilis dawyebul erTobliv aqciebze politikuri gaerTianebebis mier koleqtiuri pasuxismgeblobis ar aReba.

sakanondeblo sferoSi Sekrebisa da manifestaciis uflebebis nawilSi adgili hqonda mdgomareobis mkveTr gauaresebas. am urTierToebebs aregulirebs Semdegi kanonebi: „Sekrebebisa da manifestaciebis“, „policiis Sesaxeb“ „saqarTvelos administraciul samarTaldarRvevaTa kodeqsi“ da „saqarTvelos sisxlis samarTlis kodeqsi“. SeiZleba iTqvas rom aranairi cvlileba, rac Sekrebis an manifestaciis uflebis realizebis meqanizmebs gaamartivebda, protestantebis usafrTxoebas gazrdida da kidev ufro SeboWavda policiur TviTnebobas, ar ganxorcielebula. piriqiT, „Sekrebebisa da manifestaciebis Sesaxeb“ kanonSi Setanili cvlilebebis gamo saerTod aikrZala Senobebis blokireba. Tu aqamde akrZaluli iyo Senobebis SigniT, mis gareT 20 metris radiusSi da SesasvlelebSi aqciebis Catareba, amieridan Senobis blokirebad da aqedan gamomdinare e.w. ukanono aqciad SeiZleba gamocxades is Sekreba, romlis monawileebi, ubralod, mTeli Senobis garSemo dadgebian an Senobis garSemo wriul moZraobas daiwyeben. samarTlebriv saxelmwifoebSi Senobebis SigniT aqciebis Catareba da mis Sesasvlelebis blokireba aseve akrZaluli qmedebaa. magram veneciis komisiis CaTvliT, aravis esmis 20 metrze axlos Senobebis garSemo dgoma an siaruli, ratom aris kanoniT akrZaluli qmedeba. maSin rodesac saqarTvelos qalaqebSi Senobebisa da quCebis gamyofi trotuarebi, erTi–ori gamonaklisis garda, yvelgan 20 metraze naklebia. maSin sad unda dadges xalxi Tu ara quCis saval nawilze?

saval nawilTan mimarTebaSi ki 2009 wels kanonSi Setanili morigi Sesworebebis Tanaxmad, „transportis savali nawilis nawilobriv an srulad gadaketva SeiZleba mxolod im SemTxvevaSi, Tu SekrebaSi an manifestaciaSi monawileTa raodenobis gaTvaliswinebiT Sekrebis an manifestaciis sxvagvarad Catareba SeuZlebelia. da isic im drois ganmavlobaSi, romelsac moiTxovs SekrebaSi an manifestaciaSi monawileTa raodenoba.“ anu policielis gadasawyveti xdeba Seafasos (daTvalos) monawileTa raodenoba da sakuTari SexedulobiT gadawyvetos misi Catarebis adgili. Tu xalxis raodenobas mciredad miiCnevs, isini trotuarisaken gadaabrZanos, xolo raxan trotuari Senobidan 20 metrze Sors ar aris daSorebuli, moiTxovs Sekrebis, rogorc kanonis darReviT mimdinare aqciis, Sewyveta.

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kanonSi Setanili cvlilebiT, aseve, aikrZala transportis savali nawilis avtomanqanebiT, sxvadasxva konstruqciiT an/da sagniT gadaketva. xelisufleba SeSfoTda misi nebarTvis gareSe dadgmuli saknebis simravliT, Torem qveyanas kursi, mravalsakniani cixeeebis mSeneblobaze, kvlav ucvlelia.

policiis uflebebTan dakavSirebiT, aseve, miRebuli iqna mTeli rigi cvlilebebi. samwuxarod, es cvlilebebi mimarTuli iqna ara im uflebebis SezRudvisaken, rac policiuri Zaladobis SemcirebisaTvis aris aucilebeli, aramed, piriqiT, mimarTuli iqna maTi gazrdisaken. policiels ufleba mieca masobrivi protestis monawileebis mimarT gamoiyenos axali specialuri saSualebebi, rogoricaa: araletaluri iaraRi (maT Soris, araletaluri Wurvi), wiwakis gazi da fsiqologiuri zemoqmedebis SuqbgeriTi mowyobiloba. TiTqos, iseTi saSualebebi rogoricaa eleqtroSoki, wylis Wavli, cremlsadeni gazi, akustikuri saSualeba (iaraRi), rezinis xelketebi, samsaxurebivi ZaRlebi Tu cxenebi sakmarisi aRar aris xalxis dasaSlelad.

aseve, gamkacrebuli iqna administraciuli saxdelebi. Tu aqamde administraciuli saxdeli patimrobis saxiT policielis kanonieri moTxovnis borotad daumorCileblobisaTvis ar aRemateboda 30 dRes, 2009 wels „saqarTvelos administraciul samarTaldarRvevaTa kodeqsSi“ Setanili cvlilebebiT, am sapatimro saxdelis maqsimaluri vada 90 dRemde gaizarda. aseve gaizarda saxdelebis odenoba administraciuli organoebis SenobaTa fasadebze, agreTve maT mimdebare teritoriaze, maT Soris, fexiT mosiaruleTa da satransporto saSualebebis saval nawilze, sxvadasxva saxis warwerebis, naxatebis, simboloebis TviTneburad SesrulebisaTvis. am SemTxvevaSi warwerebisaTvis jarimis maqsimaluri odenoba 1000 laramde gaizarda. damatebiT administraciul organoebs mieniWaT warwerebis gamkeTebeli pirebis 30 dRemde vadiT dapatimrebis ufleba.

samwuxarod, arceTi adamianis uflebebis dacvisaTvis Seqmnili saxelmwifo dawesebulebidan ar yofila am cvlilebebze gamoxmaureba. aravis gauprotestebia gamoxatvis Tavisuflebis, Tu Sekrebebisa

da manifestaciebis uflebebis SemzRudavi usamarTlo saxdelebi.

sasamarTlo

2009 weli sasamarTlo reformis dasrulebis wlad gamocxadda. gamoqveynda sisxlis samarTlis kolegiebisa Tu palatebis mier wlis ganmavlobaSi ganxiluli saqmeebis statistika. mravali aTasi ganxiluli sisxlis samarTlis saqmidan mxolod samzea gammarTlebeli ganaCeni gamotanili. rogorc am SemTxvevaSi ityvian xolme, statistika Tavad metyvelebs. sasamarTlosTan mimarTebaSi Zalzed mniSvnelovania misi rolis gaanalizeba adamianis uflebebis dacvis saqmeSi. samwuxarod, gavrcelebuli mosazreba, rom saqarTvelos saerTo sasamarTloebi axorcieleben ara dacvis, aramed safrTxis matarebul funqcias - kvlav ucvleli rCeba. uiSviaTesi gamonaklisi gavlenas ver axdens saerTo suraTze. braldebis mtkicebis standartebi sakmaod dabal doneze rCeba. am mxriv sagangaSoa „operatiul–samZebro saqmianobis“ da „prokuraturis Sesaxeb“ saqarTvelos kanonSi 2009 wlis ganmavlobaSi Setanili cvlilebebi, romlebic mimdinare wels amoqmedda. saubaria satelefono saubrebis da mimoweris (maT Soris internetiT sargeblobis) xelSeuxeblobaze, farul video da audio

CawerebSi warmoebaSi sasamarTlos rolze.

cnobilia, rom satelefono saubrebis faruli miyuradeba, video da audio Cawera, operatiul–samZebro RonisZiebebis 11 saxeobidan, yvelaze gavrcelebuli da qmediTi RonisZiebebia. sagamoZiebo da operatiuli danayofebi mas ukve didixania iyeneben. farul mosmenebze, video da audio Caweraze sazogadoebrivi kontroli yovelTvis aqtualuri sakiTxi iyo.

rogori iyo da rogori iqneba satelefono saubrebis, internetiT da sxva teqnikuri saSualebebiT warmoebuli Tavisufali komunikaciis dacvis mdgomareoba? sazogadoebrivi kontrolis ra meqanizmebi iarsebebs ukanono mosmenebis, Cawerebis, internetisa Tu fostis cenzuris SesaCereblad? adamianebis urTierTobebSi saxelmwifos Carevis sakiTxebi ganvixiloT xelisuflebisTvis tradiciul prizmaSi: saqarTvelo vardebis revoluciamde da

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revoluciis Semdeg.

orive drois saqarTvelos aerTianebs is, rom kanonis doneze dauSveblad iyo gamocxadebuli, mosamarTlis brZanebis (nebarTvis) gareSe, satelefono saubrebis faruli miyuradeba da Cawera, informaciis moxsna da kavSirgabmulobis arxidan misi fiqsacia (maT Soris, kompiuteruli qselebidan), safosto-satelegrafo gzavnilTa kontroli. iseve rogorc orive droSi mosamarTlis brZanebis gareSe aseve akrZaluli iyo meore operatiul–samZebro RonisZiebis Catarebac. kerZod, faruli video da audio Cawera, kino da foto gadaReba. gansxvaveba revoluciamdel da dRevandel saqarTvelos Soris aris is SemTxveva, romelsac gadaudebeli aucileblobis SemTxveva hqvia. am dros mosamarTlis brZanebis gareSec SeiZleboda zemoT xsenebuli orive operatiul–samZebro RonisZiebis gamoyeneba. gadaudebel aucileblobad orive droSi igulisxmeboda is SemTxveva, roca dayovnebas SeeZlo gamoewvia gamoZiebisaTvis mniSvnelovani faqtobrivi monacemebis ganadgureba an SeuZlebeli gaexada aRniSnuli monacemebis mopoveba. am SemTxvevaSi, prokurors, Tavis motivirebuli dadgenilebiT, SeeZlo, mieca Tanxmoba mosamarTlis brZanebis gareSe operatiul–samZebro RonisZiebis Catarebaze. magram aq iyo erTi arsebiTi garemoeba, romelic revoluciis Semdeg saqarTveloSi kanondeblobidan amoRebuli iqna. amas daemata SarSan, 2009 wlis dekembris TveSi miRebuli cvlilebac. cvlilebi ZalaSia Sesuli da is, sazogadoebas am sferoSi kontrolis TvalsazrisiT, mxolod prokurorebis sindisis imedzeRa gvtovebs.

vardebis revoluciamde saqarTvelos prokurors, mosamarTlis brZanebis gareSe, Tavisi dadgenilebiT, mxolod im SemTxvevaSi SeeZlo mieca Tanxmoba orive operatiul–samZebro RonisZiebis gamoyenebaze, Tu mosamarTle adgilze ar daxvdeboda ris gamoc is misgan brZanebas (nebarTvas) ver moipovebda. anu saWiro iyo ori mniSvnelovani garemoebis arseboba: gadaudebeli aucilebloba da mosamarTlis adgilze ar daxvedra. mxolod am SemTxvevaSi hqonda prokurors damoukideblad operatiul–samZebro RonisZiebebis ganxorcielebaze Tanxmobis micemis ufleba. revoluciis Semdeg, gadaudebeli aucileblobisas, prokurors ukve damoukidebladac SeuZlia Tanxmobis

micema. miuxedavad imisa, mosamarTle adgilze daxvdeba Tu ara. mas aRar moeTxoveba mosamarTlesTan misvla da misi Tanxmobis (branebis) mopoveba.

rogorc zemoT vTqviT, revoluciurma xelisuflebam 2009 wels sasamarTlo reforma damTavrebulad gamoacxada. garemontda sasamarTlos Senobebi, Tvisobrivad gaumjobesda materialur–teqnikuri baza da yvelgan funqcionirebs morige mosamarTlis instituti. maSin ismis SekiTxva: Tu revoluciis Semdeg saqarTveloSi mosamarTleebis moZebna ufro gaadvilda, vidre revoluciamdel saqarTveloSi SeiZleboda, ratom iqna amoRebuli kanonis danawesi da ratom miecaT prokurorebs, gadaudebeli aucileblobisas, sasamarTloebSi mosamarTleebis mudmivi morigeobis miuxedavad, gadawyvetilebis damoukideblad miRebis ufleba? xom ar niSnavs es imas, rom represiuli aparati, erTi mxriv, imartivebs moqmedebis saSualebebs, xolo, meore mxriv, kidev ufro asustebs maT saqmianobaze sazogadoebrivi kontrolis meqanizmebs. …

sazogadoebis yuradRebas imsaxurebs prokuroris brZanebis dakanonebis vadebic. revoluciis Semdeg prokurors mieniWa ufleba operatiul–samZebro RonisZiebis dawyebidan 12 saaTSi miemarTa sasamarTlosaTvis mis mier damoukideblad gacemuli brZanebis dasakanoneblad.

TiTqos, erTi SexedviT, 12 saaTi sakmaod SemWidroebul vadad moCans. magram iqve kanonSi gakeTda daTqma, romlis mixedviTac Tu am vadis amowurva daemTxveva arasamuSao dros, maSin prokurori valdebulia am drois gasvlidan erT saaTSi mimarTos sasamarTlos. gasul droSi, kanonis Tanaxmad, igulisxmeba arasamuSao drois periodi. anu gamodis, rom Tu prokurori paraskev dilas gascems brZanebs mosmenebze, cenzuraze da a.S., maSin mas valdebuleba, misi brZanebis kanonierebis Semowmebasa da dakanonebaze, sasamarTloSi SetaniT, warmoeSoba, orSabaTs dilis 10.00 saaTze. es niSnavs, rom prokuroris gadawyvetilebiT, SeuZliaT, 3 dRe da Rame adamianebs mousminon, Cauweron saubrebi, gadauRon da a.S.

amis Semdeg mosamarTle 24 saaTSi iRebs gadawyvetilebas operatiul–samZebro

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RonisZiebebis dakanonebaze an uaris Tqmis Taobaze. anu jamSi erTi kviris ganmavlobaSi 4 dRe da Rame SeuZliaT Caerion adamianis pirad da saqmiani urTierTobebis sferoSi ise, rom formalurad ar daarRvion usamarTlo kanonebis moTxovnebi. realobaSi ki mosmenebi, Cawerebi, cenzura da gadaReba, mTlianad gamodis samosamarTlo kontrolis sferodan. imis gamo, rom gadaudebeli aucileblobisas, samosamarTlo kontroli faqtobrivad uqmdeba.

prokurorebi ukanono mosmenis Tu cenzuris gziT raime sasargeblo mtkicebulebis mopovebis (Caweris) SemTxvevaSi ukana ricxviT gaaformeben TavianT brZanebas e.w. gadaudebeli aucileblobis Taobaze da amis Semdeg Sevlen sasamarTloSi mis dasamtkiceblad. Sevlen imis gamo, rom mtkicebuleba, misi mopovebis kanonieri wesis dacviT sasamarTlo gamoZiebis etapze kanonierad mopovebul mtkicebulebad iqnes miCneuli.

sazogadoeba xSirad gamxdara operatiul–samZebro RonisZiebebis gamoyenebiT mopovebuli informaciis masobrivi saSualebebiT gavrcelebis mowme. magram imis gamo, rom darRveuli iyo maTi mopovebis kanonieri wesi, maT sasamarTlo mtkicebulebad ver iyenebdnen da mxolod sazogadoebaze zemoqmedebisaTvis avrcelebdnen. 1 Tebervals amoqmedebuli cvlilebebiT ki yovelTvis SesaZlebeli gaxdeba ukanono gziT mopovebuli mtkicebulebebis dakanoneba da Semdeg misi winaswar Tu sasamarTlo gamoZiebis etapze mtkicebulebad gamoyeneba.

martivad rom vTqvaT, sagamoZiebo da operatiul organoebs SeuZliaT maT mierve miRebuli usamarTlo kanonebis dacvis SemTvevaSi 4 dRe da Rame xelyon adamianebis piradi cxovrebisa da saqmiani urTierTobebis Tavisufleba. xolo Tu mainc dakavdebian ukanono mosmenebiT, fostisa da mimoweris ukanono cenzuriT, video gadaRebiT Tu ukanono audio CaweriT, maT, mopovebuli informaciis mtkicebulebad gadaqceva, ukve nebismier dros SeeZlebaT. amiT piradi cxovrebis xelSeuxeblobisa da saqmiani urTierToebebis dacvis samarTlebrivi meqanizmebi faqtiurad aRar arsebobs. yvelaferi, rasac ityviT, SeiZleba Tqvens winaaRmdeg iqnes gamoyenebuli.

demokratiis damkvidrebis TvalsazrisiT ,aseve, metad mniSvnelovania arCevnebis Tema. CvenSi arCevnebs uyureben rogorc mxolod xelisuflebis arCevis (personebis formalizebis) procedurebs. arada arCevnebi, mSvidobisa da wesrigis Semdeg, ganviTarebisa da stabilurobis motanis TvalsazrisiT yvelaze mniSvnelovani faqtoria. am statiaSi, samwuxarod, ver SevexeT arCevnebis aspeqts, iseve rogorc Zveli Tu axali gamowvevebis prizmaSi zogierT sxva mniSvnelovan elements.

samwuxaroa, rom qveynis winaSe mdgomi gamowvevebis prizmaSi, miuxedavad mravali kritikisa, maT Soris dasavleTis politikuri wreebisa da media sivrcidan, saqarTvelos xelisufleba jiutad ver xedavs qveyanaSi demokratiis damkvidrebis aucileblobas. sazogadoebas ki is haeriviT sWirdeba... vfiqrob, qarTuli sazogadoebis prioritetuli amocanaa - ukeT gaacnobieros demokratiis mniSvneloba, misi roli mSvidobisa da sayovelTao keTildReobis miRwevis saqmeSi. iseve, rogorc ar daiRalos misi damkvidrebisaTvis brZolaSi.

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” me minda gamovacxado demokratiuli reformebis axali talRis dawyebis Sesaxeb.

am reformebis mizania miviRoT ufro Zlieri parlamenti, xelisuflebis Stoebs

Soris kontrolisa da zedamxedvelobis ufro qmediTi saSualebebi, ganvamtkicoT

sakuTrebis xelSeuxebloba, ufro Tavisufali da miukerZoebeli

gavxadoT media da ufro samarTliani da damoukidebeli - sasamarTlo”.

mixeil saakaSvili,

2008 wlis 16 seqtemberi

erT-erTi yvelaze avtoritetuli saerTaSoriso organizaciis “Freedom House”-is 2010 wlis ianvarSi gamoqveynebuli kvleviT, romelic 2009 wels msoflioSi demokratiis xarisxs adgens, saqarTvelos mdgomareoba 2008 welTan SedarebiT ar Secvlila - saqarTvelo kvlav rCeba ”nawilobriv Tavisufal” da ”araarCeviT demokratiad”.

pasuxismgeblobiT aRWurvili moqalaqisTvis amgvari Sedegi damafiqrebeli, magram ara sagangaSo iqneboda - bolobolo, demokratia xom procesia, romlis drosac warmatebebs warumatebloba mosdevs da a.S. Tumca situaciaSi, roca mTeli wlis ganmavlobaSi saqarTvelos xelisuflebis mxridan gamocxadebul ”demokratiuli reformebis axal talRas” viTarebis gamosworebis TvalsazrisiT araviTari Sedegi ar mosdevs - pasuxismgeblobiT aRWurvili moqalaqe ukve unda SeSfoTdes da yalbi iluziebisgan ganTavisufldes.

saqarTveloSi mediis Tavisuflebis xarisxi - politikosebis, sazogado moRvaweebis, sazogadoebis didi nawilis ase vTqvaT sayvareli Temaa. ra uSlis xels saqarTveloSi mediis Tavisuflebas - xelisuflebis boroti zraxvebi, media mflobelebis burusiT mosili politikuri TamaSebi, JurnalistTa araprofesionalizmi, politikuri angaJireba da TviTcenzura, momxmareblis dabali

politikuri kultura - axsna-ganmartebebi araerTxel gakeTebula. ”diagnozdasmuli” qarTuli mediis mdgomareoba ki sul ufro da ufro mZimdeba. xelisuflebis momxreTa mier yvelaze metad dafasebuli ”miukerZoeblobis” gaTvaliswinebiT, amjerad mxolod SegaxsenebT im movlenebs, rac qarTul mediaSi xdeboda 2008 wlis agvistos movlenebis Semdeg.

2008 weli

seqtemberiparlamentSi gamosvlisas, mixeil saakaSvilma demokratiis axali talRis dawyebis Sesaxeb ganacxada;

Tbilisis saqalaqo sasamarTlom ar daakmayofila telekompania ”maestros” sarCeli komunikaciebis erovnuli komisiis winaaRmdeg, zogadi mauwyeblobis licenziis miRebaze uaris Tqmis Sesaxeb;saqarTvelom moxsna SezRudvebi rusul veb-gverdebze;

mixeil saakaSvilma wamoayena iniciativa komunikaciebis erovnul komisiaSi opoziciis warmomadgenlis daniSvnisa da sazogadoebriv arxze politikuri debatebis gamarTvis Sesaxeb;

fridom hausma mouwoda aSS-s, mis mier saqarTvelosTvis gamoyofili finansuri mxardaWera mniSvnelovanwilad saqarTvelos samoqalaqo sazogadoebas, damoukidebel televiziebs da Zlier sasamarTlo seqtors moxmardes;

mauwyebloba ganaaxla telekompania ”TrialeTma”, romelic goris okupaciisas gaiZarcva.

oqtomberiarasaparlamento opoziciam gamoaqveyna

Tamar Ciqovani

talRebSi dakargulebi

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gancxadeba ”pirveli nabiji Tavisufali mediisTvis”, romelic gulisxmobs:

1. aRdges sazogadoebriv-politikuri Toq-Sou ”praim-taimi” sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis eTerSi da gaimarTos yoveldRiuri politikuri debatebi;

2. sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis eTerSi, sazogadoebis ndobiT aRWurvil damoukidebel JurnalistTa jgufs daeTmos saeTero dro Jurnalisturi gamoZiebisTvis; 3. daubrundes telekompania ”imedi” kanonier mflobels;

4. mieces telekompania ”maestros” sazogadoebriv-politikuri gadacemebis gakeTebis saSualeba;

5. sazogadoebas dauyovneblic miewodos amomwuravi informacia saqarTveloSi moqmedi yvela telekompaniis mesakuTreTa vinaobis Sesaxeb.

parlamenti CaerTo molaparakebebSi telekompania ”maestrosa” da komunikaciebis erovnul komisias Soris;

parlamentma miiRo sakanonmdeblo damateba, romelic sazogadoebriv mauwyebels politikuri debatebis gamarTvas avaldebulebs;

”reportiorebi sazRvrebs gareSe” mier gamoqveynebul presis Tavisuflebis msoflio reitingSi, saqarTvelom 54 safexuriT gaiuaresa pozicia. axal reitingSi, sadac 173 qveyanaa Sesuli, saqarTvelom 120-e adgili daikava ( amave organizaciis 2007 wlis oqtomberSi gamoqveynebul reitingSi saqarTvelos 66-e adgili ekava. 2008 wels saqarTveloze ukeTeso poziciebi aqvT: estoneTs, latvias. litvas, ukrainas, moldovas, somxeTs, tajikeTs da yirgizeTs.)

noemberi4 noembers Tavdacvis saminitroSi gaerTianebuli Stabis axali xelmZRvanelis wardgenisas, mixeil saakaSvilma ganacxada, rom xelisufleba ”Cuqnis” politikur Zalebs sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis meore arxs. misi gancxadebiT: ” yvela politikur Zalas da arasamTavrobo organizacias eqneba saSualeba, gamovides studiaSi da saqarTvelos gaacnos sakuTari Sexedulebebi.

maT Soris, yvelaze miuRebelic”.komunikaciebis erovnulma komisiam telekompania ”maestros” licenziis modificirebis gadawyvetileba miiRo.

dekemberiteleimedis sakontrolo paketis ”nominalurma mflobelma” giorgi jaoSvilma preskonferenciaze ganacxada, rom Sss-s da finansuri policiis TanamSromlebma fizikuri da fsiqologiuri zewolis Sedegad, is aiZules, telekompania ”imedis” aqciebis sakontrolo paketi jozef keisTvis daeTmo.saqarTveloSi vizitiT myofma senatorma jon kerim Tbilisidan gamgzavrebis win imedi gamoTqva, rom saqarTveloSi mediis Tavisuflebis xarisxi gaizrdeba.

2009 weli

ianvariFreedom house-s daskvniT, saqarTvelo aRar ekuTvnis ”arCeviTi demokratiebis qveynebis jgufs.

sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblobis sameurveo sabWom rekomendacia misca menejments, SeaCeros gadacema ”saqarTvelos didi aTeuli”, radgan saqarTvelos eklesiisTvis am gadacemis formati miuRebelia.

telekompania ”maestros” eTerSi daiwyo realiti-Sou ”sakani nomeri 5”.

gaimarTa mixeil saakaSvilis pirveli telexidi, romelic 4 saaTs gagrZelda.sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis gadawyvetilebiT, ”saqarTvelos didi aTeuli” Secvlil formatiT gagrZelda.

Tebervalimeore arxis bazaze politikuri arxis formirebasTan dakavSirebiT, parlamentsa da sazogadoebriv mauwyebels Soris memorandumi gaformda.

teleradio kompania ”imedis” 90% jozef qeim Rakeen Georgia-s daudgenel Tanxad mihyida.

martikomunikaciebis maregulirebelma komisiam mauwyeblobis qcevis kodeqsi miiRo.telekompania ”imedis” sainformacio

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samsaxuris ufrosad Tavdacvis saministros sazogadoebasTan urTierTobis departamentis ufrosi nana inwkirveli dainiSna.

apriligaimarTa saprotesto aqciebi sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis Senobis win. maT Soris, e.w. sircxvilis derefnebi;

telekompania rusTavi-2-is generalur direqtorad giorgi gegeSiZe dainiSna.sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis sameTvalyureo sabWo 3-ma wevrma datova.

maisikomunikaciebis erovnulma komisiam telekompania me-9 arxs licenzia gauuqma.”fridom hausis” angariSiT, saqarTvelo zRvarzea nawilobriv Tavisufalsa da araTavisufal medias Soris;

mixeil saakaSvilma arasaparlamento opoziciasTan Sexvedrisas, sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis sameurveo sabWos xelaxali dakompleqtebis iniciativa wamoayena.

telekompania ”maetros” karTan xelyumbara afeTqda.

cenzuris gamo, telekompania ”imedi” ramdenime Jurnalistma datova.

ivnisiTbilisSi vizitisas, aSS saxelmwifo mdivnis moadgilis TanaSemwem filip gordonma saqarTveloSi sityvis Tavisuflebis mxardaWeraze isaubra.

Sss-Tan Jurnalistebis cemis faqtis gamo, telekompaniebma ”maestrom” da ”kavkasiam” erTi dRiT mauwyebloba Sewyvites.

komunikaciebis erovnuli komisiis Tavmjdomared telekompania rusTavi 2-is yofili generaluri direqtori irakli Ciqovani daniSnes.

ivlisi”fridom hausis” daskvniT, saqarTveloSi demokratiis xarisxi yvela mimarTulebiT gauaresda.

telekompania ”maestrom” satelituri mauwyeblobis licenzia aiRo;

”jorjia media holdingis” direqtoris postze, giorgi isakaZe prezidentis aparatis yofilma ufrosma, ekonomikis yofilma ministrma giorgi arvelaZem Secvala;

gadadga sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis generaluri direqtori levan yubaneiSvili;parlamentma sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis sameurveo sabWos 3 axali wevri daamtkica.

agvistosazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis generaluri direqtoris Tanamdebobaze giorgi Wanturia dainiSna.

patimrobis vadis moxdis Semdeg, gaTavisuflda telekompania 202 erTerTi mflobeli Salva ramiSvili

seqtemberiparlamentma daamtkica cvlileba kanonmdeblobaSi, romlis Tanaxmad gafarTovda sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis sameurveo sabWos wevrTa raodenoba;Salva ramiSvili telekompania ”imedma” gasarTobi Sous wamyvanad miiwvia.

sazogadoebriv mauwyebelSi daixura gadacema ”politikuri kvira”.

oqtomberigermaniis saelCom saqarTveloSi mouwoda qarTul medias, Seasworos bolo dros germaniis sagareo saqmeTa ministris frank-valter Stainmaieris Sesaxeb gavrcelebuli mcdari informacia.

arasamTavrobo organizaciebis erTma jgufma xelisuflebas sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis apolitikuri sameurveo sabWos Seqmnisken mouwoda.

organizacia ”Jurnalistebi sazRvrebs gareSe” 2009 wlis presis Tavisuflebis indeqsiT, saqarTvelom 39 safexuriT progresi ganicada da 81-e adgili daikava.

baTumis saqalaqo sasamarTlom ZalaSi datova sagadasaxado samsaxuris gadawyetileba, baTumis damoukidebeli telekompania 25-e arxisTvis 278 aTasi laris jarimis dawesebis Sesaxeb. jarimis gadauxdelobis SemTxvevaSi,

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kanoniT saxelmwifos ufleba aqvs, telekompaniis qoneba auqcionze gaitanos.

noemberitelekompania ”maestros” marTvis ufleba 3 wlis vadiT erosi kiwmariSvils gadaeca.saerTaSoriso gamWvirvaleoba-saqarTvelos angariSiT, saqarTvelos samauwyeblo sferos regulirebis moqmedi sistema mediis mflobelTa gamWvirvaleobas da konkurentunariani satelevizio bazis Seqmnas ver uzrunvelyofs.

TbilisSi gaimarTa samxreT kavkasiis media konferencia, romelic mediis Tavisuflebis sakiTxebSi euTos warmomadgenelma miloS haracis gaxsna.

telekompania ”imedis” sainformacio gamoSvebis wamyvani manana manjgalaZe prezidentis pres-spikeri gaxda.

Salva ramiSvilma datova gasarTobi Sou ”simarTlis droa”.

gazeT ”baTumelebis” Jurnalisti sod-is mxridan SantaJis obieqtad iqca.

dekemberipoliciam gazeT ”baTumelebis” Jurnalistze ganxorcielebuli zewolis gamoZieba daiwyo.natos generalurma mdivanma rasmusenma saqarTvelos xelisuflebas mouwoda, ”gaaRmaos mediis Tavisuflebasa da kanonis uzenaesobasTan dakavSirebuli reformebi”.presis msoflio organizaciam mixeil saakaSvils ”baTumelebis” saqmis gamoZiebis uzrunvelyofis TxovniT mimarTa.

parlamentma sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis sameurveo sabWos 7 axali wevri daamtkica.sazogadoebriv mauwyebels daemata satelevizio sixSire da Seecvala dafinansebis wesi.

Tu am movlenebs davumatebT imasac, rom mediis finansuri damoukideblobisTvis aucilebeli sareklamo bazari erTi mxriv, ekonomikuri krizisis gamo, Semcirebulia, meore mxriv ki - kvlavindeburad xelisuflebis mier monopolizirebuli - mediis damoukideblobis TvalsazrisiT raime

ukeTesobis prognozireba gulubryviloba iqneboda. marTalia, 2007 wlis noembris movlenebis Semdeg, saerTaSoriso fondebma aRadgines an gazardes saqarTveloSi mediis daxmarebis programebi, magram es srulfasovani damoukidebeli mediis arsebobisTvis, samwuxarod, sakmarisi ar aris. dRes nacionaluri telekompaniebi, finansebi, sixSireebi kvlavindeburad xelisuflebis mier kontroldeba, rac pluralisturi sainformacio garemos Seqmnis Sanss CanasaxSive spobs. Sesabamisad, xelisuflebis mier ”TamaSis wesebis” realuri cvlilebis gareSe, rac, pirvel rigSi, eleqtronuli mediisa da biznesis monopoliaze uaris Tqmas gulisxmobs - saqarTvelos warmatebebi demokratiis ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT, karg SemTvevaSi kvlav didi kiTxvis niSnis qveS dadgeba, cud SemTxvevaSi ki saerTaSoriso organizaciebis mier Catarebul kvlevebSi ukve ara naxevrad Tavisufal, aramed araTavisufal qveyanaTa ”TanamegobrobaSi” amovyofT Tavs. sxvaTaSoris, igive Freedom House-is 2009 wlis angariSiT, demokratiis ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT, saqarTvelos da afxazeTs erTnairi Sedegi aqvs...

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2008 wlis agvistos omma SokSi Caagdo mTeli saqarTvelo, maT Soris, opoziciurad ganwyobili politikosebi. pirvel wuTebSi daibnen – ver gaiges, Tu ratom da risi imediT daiwyo saqarTvelos xelisuflebam saomari moqmedebebi. gavrcelda uamravi versia. amave dros, opozicionerebis nawili cxinvalisken daiZra. nanaxi arc am versiebs emTxveoda da arc xelisuflebis mxne ritorikas. sanam tyuil-marTals gaarkvevdnen politikosebi, omic damTavrda da Tan - rogor?! mxolod marcxSi araa saqme. sazogadoebis didi nawili gaamwara qarTul windauxedaobasa da rusul ZalmomreobasTan ususurobam. Tan, marcxsac xom Tavis eTika da esTetika aqvs. aq ki araferSi ar jdeboda, rom Seni qveyana samarcxvinod gaeba maxeSi, TiTqmis ubrZolvelad damarcxda or dReSi, dakarga adamianebi da teritoriebi da... TbilisSi moawyo zeimi SeZaxilebiT “Cven gavimarjveT!”.

qarTvels esTeturoba yvelaferSi uyvars da

dasawyisiT, dasasruliT da zneobiT maxinji

es omi mis cnobierebaSi ver Tavsdeboda.

sasowarkveTis gamwareba bevrs yelSi hqonda

mobjenili, magram am dros rusulma tankebma

myarad daikaves poziciebi saqarTvelos

sxvadasxva kuTxeSi. xelisuflebis Segineba

am tankebis gaxarebas niSnavda da qarTul

politikaSi daZabuli siCume Camowva –

gamocxadda Sida politikuri moratoriumi.

am siCumeSi gaisma damagvirgvinebeli akordi -

ruseTis mier afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis

damoukideblobis aRiareba.

gaCumebuli SeZaxili ar ismis, magram kaniT

igrZnoba. marTlac, yvela grZnobda, rom

haeric gaJRenTilia protestiT. sakmarisi iyo

naperwkali, rom... da am naperwkals 9 aprili

daerqva.

mediaSi 2008 wlis SemodgomisTvis opoziciam nel-nela daiwyo xelisuflebis kritika daufiqrebeli omisTvis, magram SokSi myofi sazogadoeba mainc garindebuli iyo. 20 ianvridan telekompania “maestros” eTeri daeTmo yoveldRiur gadacemas “sakani #5”. sakanSi ijda yvelasTvis kargad nacnobi “ucnobi” – laRi, keTili, yvelas moyvaruli da yvelasTvis sayvareli popularuli momRerali gia gaCeCilaZe. igi Tavis droze “vardebis revolucias” emxroboda, Semdeg imedgacruebam ZmasTan, levan gaCeCilaZesTan erTad opoziciurad ganawyo. misi ganwyoba cnobili iyo, magram “sakanSi” mis danaxvas mainc ar elodnen, miT umetes im motiviT, rom saqarTvelo gamoefxizlebina xelisuflebasTan sabrZolvelad. “ucnobma” sajarod ganacxada, rom ar datovebda “sakans” vidre saakaSvili ar datovebda xelisuflebas. Tbilisis sasowarkveTili mosaxleobis yuradReba magnitiviT miizida yoveli Ramis 11 saaTidan “sakan #5”-Si 3-4- saaTamde gagrZelebulma dialogebma. uZiloba dasCemda qalaqs.

Tavidanve “sakans” uyurebdnen didi interesiT, magram TandaTan met-naklebi imdegacrueba gaCnda. imdegacruebis mizezi hqondaT – “saknis” stumrebi, ZiriTadad, iyvnen “ucnobis” Zmakacebi da politikaze dialogebic quCis Zmakacuri laparakis stilSi midioda. pirvel jerze ekzotikuri sanaxavi iyo, magram Semdeg mosawyeni, radgan axalgazrdebi saTqmelis gamravalferovnebas ver axerxebdnen. gadacema Cavardnis pirze iyo, rom “sakanSi” erTmaneTis miyolebiT gamoCnda ori legenda – WadrakSi msoflios

ramaz sayvareliZe

2009 wlis aprili: omi omis gamo

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mravalgzis Cempioni nona gafrindaSvili da msoflio masStabis reJisori robert sturua. is ori Rame Tbilisma gaaTena. nonas da robikos (mapation familaroba, magram saqarTveloSi did adamianebs mxolod saxeliT moixseneben) gulwrfelobam, mogonebebma, moulodnelma inteleqtualurma wiaRsvlebma, uzneobisadmi Seurigeblobam da qveynis upaToso, magram mtkice siyvarulma maTi sruliad axali saxe daanaxa xalxs. xalxis winaSe Tavisi Tavis ganaxlebasTan erTad maT sakanic ganaaxles (aqve davamateb – mas mere araerTxel SeaRes grosmaisterma da maestrom “maestros” kari, riTac daadastures, rom pirveli stumroba SemTxveviTi ar iyo).

“saknisken” daiZra saqarTvelos inteleqtualuri elita – politikosebi, sportis mesveurebi, xelovanebi, ekonomistebi, yvela, visac raime hqonda saTqmeli qveynis bed-iRbalze. gadacemebi erTmaneTze ufro saintereso gaxda. yvelaze opoziciuri telegadacemis Tanaavtorad qarTuli inteligencia gadaiqca.

stumrebTan daZabuli dialogebis Semdeg ki kameris win marto darCenili “ucnobi” feierverkul klounadas awyobda xolme saakaSvilis da misi garemocvis Temebze. Ramis yoveli stumari meore dRes qalaquri saubrebis gmiri xdeboda. xolo mudmivi gmiri, gmirTa gmiri, ra Tqma unda, gia gaCeCilaZe iyo. man, marTlac, gmiruli ram SeZlo – xalxi gamoiyvana depresiidan, mouxsna xelisuflebis SiSi (vizec icinian, misi ar eSiniaT), inteleqtualuri dialogebiT protests misca racionaluri gamarTleba da sakuTari SeupovrobiT moqalaqeebSi Seupovroba gaaCina. “ucnobis” mimarT rwmena ganuzomeli iyo. swored man da misma stumrebma Tqves, rom 9 aprils damTavrdeboda saakaSvilis xelisufleba, radgan 9 aprils unda Catarebuliyo didi saprotesto aqciebi da amdeni xalxis nebas saakaSvili win ver aRudgeboda, wavidoda prezidentobidan.

politikuri cxovrebis pulsma nel-nela gamococxleba daiwyo. rac ar

unda paradoqsuli iyos, politikuri gamococxlebis erTerTi niSani daukavSirda “vardebis revoluciis” yofil liders, parlamentis yofil Tavmjdomares nino burjanaZes. man jer kidev 2008 wlis 27 oqtombers, omis Semdeg Seqmna opoziciuri partia. mosaxleobam miiCnia, rom es saakaSvilisgan “Semogdebuli” opozicia iyo. mas, rogorc saakaSvilis erTgul TanamebrZols, xalxi ar endoboda. amave dros, 2009 wels saxelisuflo presam daiwyo intensiuri Seteva swored burjanaZeze. ar gamodioda gazeTi misi kritikis gareSe. isic Tqves – saqarTveloSi myofi rusi samxedroebi iZaxian, Cven burjanaZe gvindao. saxelmwifo televiziebi aCvenebdnen farul Canawerebs, rogor “yiduloben” burjanaZis gundelebi iaraRs. komentarebSi iyo, es samxedro gadatrialebisa da rusebis SemoyvanisTvis keTdebao. burjanaZis partiis ramodenime wevri daiWires. yovelive aman, erTis mxriv, burjanaZe gansakuTrebuli yuradRebis centrSi moaqcia da meores mxriv - cxadi gaxada, rom daiwyo daundobeli politikuri brZola - xelisufleba emzadeboda omisTvis, oRond ukve politikur oponentebTan (xolo burjanaZe, xelisuflebisadmi misi tonis gamwvavebasTan erTad, ganuwyvetliv iRebda ucxoel stumrebs - yvela maRali rangis stumari da delegacia Tavs valdebulad Tvlida burjanaZesTan viziti gaekeTebina).

amasTanave, 2009 wlis 16 Tebervals moawyo Tavisi politikuri gundis prezentacia irakli alasaniam, saqarTvelos yofilma warmomadgenelma gaeroSi. erT kviraSi alasanias gundma, “axalma memarjveneebma” da “saqarTvelos respublikurma partiam” ukuagdes sakuTari politikuri ambiciebi da daafuZnes axali politikuri gaerTianeba “aliansi saqarTvelosTvis”. aliansma mimarTa xelisuflebas, rom daniSnuliyo vadamdeli saprezidento da saparlamento arCevnebi. sazogadoebis nawili miemxro am mimarTvas. xolo politikosebis meore nawils (nino burjanaZe, salome zurabiSvili, eka beselia, erovnuli forumi, konservatorebi)

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da maT momxreebs miaCndaT, rom jer unda gadadges saakaSvili, Seicvalos saarCevno administracia, gajansaRdes media da mxolod amis Semdeg aqvs azri laparaks axal arCevnebze. opoziciis orive am nakadma 9 aprils erTad moiyara Tavi.

vidre 9 aprilze gadavidodeT, oriode sityva am or opoziciur poziciaze: TiToeul maTganSi iyo TiTo kiTxvis niSani, romlis pasuxic ar Canda. gaugebari iyo, ratom unda daeniSna saakaSvils vadamdeli arCevnebi (romelSic TviTon veRar miiRebda monawileobas)? aseve gaugebari iyo bevri xalxis danaxvaze ratom unda gadamdgariyo? gaugebari iyo imitom, rom opozicionerebi ar emuqrebodnen saakaSvils arafriT, Tu is maT moTxovnebs ar Seasrulebda - Zaladoba maTTvis miuRebeli iyo. Sesabamisad, wayenebuli moTxovnebis Sesruleba mxolod saakaSvilis da misi gundis keTil nebaze xdeboda damokidebuli. gaugebari iyo, ratom unda gasCenoda saakaSvils da mis gunds xelisuflebis mitovebis survili? am kiTxvebs ayenebdnen Jurnalistebi opozicionerebis winaSe, magram logikurad gamarTuli pasuxi ar ismoda (momavalSi vnaxavT, rom eSmaki swored upasuxod darCenil kiTxvebSi zis xolme). rac Seexeba opozicias, savaraudoa, rom is logikiT ki ara, analogiebiT xelmZRvanelobda. xalxis danaxvaze gadadga SevardnaZe da, analogiurad, saakaSvilic gadadgebao. 2007-Si xalxis moTxovniT saakaSvilma daniSna arCevnebi da, analogiurad, axlac daniSnavso da a.S. gansxvavebebs adrindel pirobebsa da imJamindels Soris egzaltirebuli opozicia ver xedavda. egzaltaciam imata 9 aprilis Semdeg.

9 aprils qalaqis sxvadasxva ubanSi sxvadasxva partiam daiwyo Tavmoyra. ori saaTisTvis yvela maTgani TavTavisi partiuli droSebiT daiZra parlamentis Senobisken qalaqis centrSi. xalxis simravlem mTeli rusTavelis prospeqti gaavso (ambobdnen, momotingeTa raodenoba 200 000-is farglebSi iyoo). parlamentis win gakeTda tribuna da

daiwyo politikuri liderebis gamosvlebi. yvela gamosvlaSi aRwerdnen agvistos omis ubedurebebs da Semdeg amTavrebdnen imiT, rom saakaSvili unda gadadges. TiTqmis yvela liders da mis gamosvlas xalxi aRfrTovanebuli taSiT xvdeboda.

mxolod ori gamosvla nawilobriv amovarda zogadi erTsulovnebis am suraTidan. roca mikrofonTan mivida burjanaZe, xalxi mas stveniT Sexvda. burjanaZem mSvidad daicada da siCumis dadgomis mere TviTon CamoTvala da Secdomad aRiara is faqtebi, rasac Secdomad uTvlida mas es xalxi, Semdeg ki Seurigebeli brZolisken mouwoda maT. misi sityva taSiT dasrulda. meore incidenti moxda alasaniasTan dakavSirebiT. mikrofonTan taSiT misulma alasaniam Camoayaliba Tavis pozicia, rom unda moviTxovoT ara prezidentis gadadgoma, aramed riggareSe saprezidento arCevnebio. xalxma stvena dauwyo. saSvelad mosulma levan gaCeCilaZem mitingi daarwmuna, rom aq mxolod formulirebebis sxvaoba iyo da meti araferi. mTeli mitingi, gansakuTrebiT ki - es ori incidenti, mkafio dasturia imisa, rom 9 aprils yvelaze radikaluri iyo opoziciurad ganwyobili xalxi, is elodeboda mxolod erTs – saakaSvilis gadadgomas da nebismieri ram, rac ar Tavsdeboda am molodinSi, misTvis miuRebeli iyo. amis xazgasma saWiroa, radgan saxelisuflo media irwmuneboda, radikaluria mxolod opozicia da xalxi mas mihyvebao.

protesti Zaladobis gareSe istoriaSi xSirad ar gvxvdeba. klasikuri da iSviaTi magaliTia indoeTi, sadac mahaTma gandis titanuri Zalisxmevis Sedegad protestma Zaladobis gareSe Caiara da miaRwia Sedegs. 9 aprils opozicia gandis gzas adga, magram egzaltaciis gamo isev ar iTvaliswinebda, rom es grZeli gzaa da ar SeiZleba gaaCino molodini swraf Sedegze. es nawilobriv gacnobierda mxolod mas Semdeg, rac dainaxes, rom 9 aprilis didi mitingis gamo saakaSvili ar gadadga. cxadi iyo, rom process unda gaeZlo drosTvis. opoziciam “ucnobis”

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simbolo aitaca da aqciis SenarCunebisTvis saknis formis karvebi dadga parlamentis SenobasTan, sazogadoebriv mauwyebelTan da prezidentis kancelariasTan. pirvel or adgilas “saknebi” ise iyo, rom transportis moZraobis mTavar magistralebs blokavda. opozicia Tvlida, rom mosaxleoba gauZlebda am sirTuleebs, xelisuleba ki vera da gadadgeboda. aqac Cndeba kiTxva – Tu mosaxleoba gagebiT moekideboda cxovrebis gaZnelebas, xelisufleba ratom Sewuxdeboda da gadawyvetda gadadgomas? kiTxva isev upasuxod iyo darCenili.

xelisuflebam Seqmnili mdgomareoba opoziciaze ufro adre Seafasa da gamaneitralebelic mouZebna. parlamentis spikeris moadgilem mixeil maWavarianma erTerTma pirvelma Tqva - “es nervebis omiao”. am Sefasebidan cxadi iyo, rom xelisufleba pasiurobiT gawelavda dros. marTlac, man dedaqalaqi dauTmo opozicias. prezidenti ministrebs da elCebs iRebda gareubanSi mdgar Sinagan saqmeTa saministroSi. dRis ganmavlobaSi Zalovani struqturebis mxridan aranair zewolas momitingeebze ar hqonda adgili.... samagierod, RamiT, jipebSi Camsxdari niRbiani adamianebi mitingebis siaxloveSi iWerdnen ganmartovebul momitingeebs da daundoblad scemdnen. dagrovda amgvari Zaladobis uamravi faqti, romelTagan xelisuflebam vercerTis gamoZieba “ver moaxerxa”, ramac safiqrebeli gaxada, rom Ramis represiebs swored xelisufleba atarebda. es, erTi SexedviT, ugunuri saqcieli kargad iyo gaTvlili – is mSiSrebs daaSinebda, xolo gabedulebs nervebs mouSlida. nervebis moSla ki cud samsaxurs gauwevda opozicias nervebis omSi. Sedegic Sesabamisi mohyva.

6 maiss mitinze movida “ucnobi” ori biWis weriliT, romlebic policielebma daiWires mitingis Soriaxlos. biWebi werdnen - policia gaupatiurebiT gvemuqrebao. aRSfoTebuli “ucnobi” da xalxi policiis mTavari sammarTvelosken daiZra. iq ki yvelaferi ise iyo mowyobili, rom aRSfoTeba policiaze

TavdasxmaSi gadazrdiliyo. “ucnobma” xalxi SeaCera da mxolod TviTon gadavida Robeze werilis gadasacemad (policielebiT gavsebuli ezodan karebs aravin aRebda da Robes aravin uaxlovdeboda). “ucnobi” gonebis dabindvamde scemes wixlebiT, xolo danarCen xalxs rezinis tyviebi dauSines fanjrebidan. tyviebs TavSi umiznebdnen, gansakuTrebiT politikur liderebs. erTerTma momitingem Tvali dakarga.

snaiperebis fanjrebTan yofna miuTiTebs, rom xelisufleba mzad iyo am operaciisTvis da biWebis werili satyuaras rols asrulebda. am incidentma gamoavlina xelisuflebis strategia im momentisTvis – moexdina momitingeTa provocireba Zaladobaze, rom TviTonac Zalis gamoyenebis kanonieri sababi miscemoda.

am strategias xels uwyobda zogierTi is elCic, romelic meore dResve gaZaxoda – opoziciurad ganwyobili adamianebi mosaxleobis Zalze mcire nawilia, Tanac policiaze Tavdasxma dauSvebeliao. savaraudoa, rom momitingeTa raodenobisa da 6 maisis incidentis amgvari versia maT xelisuflebisgan miiRes da saWirod aRar CaTvales gadamowmeba.

saerTod, aprilis movlenebis mimarT elCebisa da ucxoeTis damokidebuleba calke Temaa. aSkarad igrZnoboda, rom dasavleTisTvis miuRebeli iyo es saprotesto aqciebi. ucxoelebma maTTvis mosawon burjanaZesTan kontaqtsac ki ukles mas Semdeg, rac is mitingebSi aqtiurad CaerTo. opozicionerebma aRiares is problema, rom ucxoelebs maTi ar esmiT da daiwyes ufro aqtiuri dialogi ucxoelebTan. am dialogebSi opozicia sul ufro xSirad usvamda xazs, rom dasavleTi amgvari politikiT SeinarCunebs saakaSvils, romelic Ram-RamobiT arbevs momitingeebs, magram dakargavs qarTveli xalxis keTilganwyobas dasavleTis mimarT. am replikaze diplomatebs pasuxi ar hqondaT, magram rogorc Cans, raRac reaqcia mainc misces, radgan opoziciis maTTan kontaqtis

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Semdeg Ramis darbevebi Sewyda. meores mxriv, “aliansisTvis” dasavleTis kritikuli ganwyoba kidev erTi argumenti gaxda imisa, rom sxva jgufebis radikalizmi ar gaeziarebina.

xelisuflebam strategia odnav Secvala – Ramis politika moxsna da dRis politika datova, anu Zaladoba Sewyvita da miuSva opozicia Tavis nebaze. amis yvelaze mkafio magaliTi 26 maisi gaxda. “sakani #5”-dan axali daTqma gakeTda – saqarTvelos damoukideblobis dRes 26 maiss erovnul stadionze SevikriboT, msoflios davanaxoT, rom cotani ara varT da saakaSvili gadadgebao.

moZraobis Seferxebis da sxva sirTuleebis Tavidan acilebis motiviT prezidentma opozicias dialogi SesTavaza. 7 maiss Sedga dialogi, romelic uSedegod dasrulda, dapatimrebuli momitingeebic ki ar gaanTavisufles. opoziciis winadadebebis sanacvlod prezidenti 11 maiss sakonstitucio komisiis Seqmnis iniciativiT gamovida.

dadga 26 maisi. xelisufleba TbilisSi saerTod ar Canda. stadioni gaivso imaze orjer meti xalxiT, vidre “vardebis revoluciis” dros iyo quCaSi (maSin saakaSvili SevardnaZes mitingidan uZaxda - “35 aTasi varT. kidev ramdeni unda movides, rom gadadgeo?!”). egzaltacia piks aRwevda. TiTqmis yvela opozicionerma iq moiyara Tavi. xelSi atacebuli Semoyvanes “ucnobi”. daiwyo liderebis gamosvlebi, romlebic SinaarsiT didad ar gansxvavdeboda adrindeli mitingebisgan.

TvalSisacem gamonakliss warmodgenda erTi fragmenti: “erovnuli forumis” erT-erTma liderma gubaz sanikiZem stadionze Sekrebilebs mouwoda afxaz da os Zmebs mivesalmoTo. stadioni taSiT Sexvda am mowodebas da pativiscemis niSnad fexze wamoudga afxazebs da osebs. erTianobis da Tavisuflebis ganwyoba sufevda mTel stadionze.

26 maisi usasrulod ver gagrZeldeboda, saWiro iyo wertili. gia gaCeCilaZem xalxs SesTavaza patriarqTan mivideT, is dalocavs Cven brZolas da gvetyvis ra gzas davadgeTo. xalxi daiZra samebis taZrisken. iq maT usiamovno siurprizi elodaT Tbilisis meris da sxva ramodenime maRalCinosani moxelis saxiT. patriarqma, Cveulebisamebr, daloca misulebi da simSvidiken mouwoda ise, rom opoziciuri ganwyobileba ar ganumtkicebia. xalxSi ukmayofilebis talRa datrialda – ukmayofilo iyvnen opoziciis liderebiT, mTel qalaqis uSedegod gavliT, zogi eklesiiT ukmayofilebasac ar malavda. gaisma SeZaxilebi “televiziaSi SevideTo” da gabrazebuli xalxi daiZra sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblisken. xalxis moZraobas opoziciis liderebi (ZiriTadad, qalebi) gadaeRobnen da SeCerebas cdilobdnen – televiziis Senobis aReba xelisuflebisgan Zalis gamoyenebas kanoniers gaxdida. rom verafers gaxdnen, opozicionerebma nakads kalapoti Seucvales - xalxs mouwodes rkinigza gadavketoTo. xalxi dayabulda. is Rame liandagebaze gaaTenes opozocionerebma da maTma momxreebma. es Ramec imis dasturi iyo, rom radikalur opoziciaze ufro radikaluri iyo mitingebze mosuli xalxi.

8 ivniss prezidentma sakonstitucio komisia

Seqmna, sadac saparlamento partiebi,

eqspertebi da arasamTavrobo organizaciebi

Sevidnen. komisiis Tavmjdomare

a.demetraSvili proeqtis dadebas wlis

bolosTvis varaudobda. aseTi Soreuli

perspeqtiva quCaSi Sekrebilma xalxma kvlav

uSedegobisTvis ganwirulad CaTvala da

Seqmnili viTarebis dacinvad aRiqva.

Tavad quCa ki kargavda emociur muxts.

gaxSirda laparaki imaze, rom aRar Canda

xelisuflebis Secvlis perspeqtiva. gaugebari

xdeboda, risTvis itanda qalaqi centraluri

quCebis gadaketvas. saknismagvar karvebSi dRis

ganmavlobaSi aRaravin iyo. dagrovda nagavi,

romelic qalaqis samsaxurebs principulad ar

gahqonda.

89

damo

ukid

ebel eqsper

tT

a klu

bi

daiwyo Tavad saprotesto aqciebis krizisi

da opoziciam ukan daixia. dialogis momxre

opozicionerebis iniciativiT aiRes “karvebi”

televiziasa da prezidentis rezidenciasTan.

opoziciis erTerTma TvalsaCino liderma

levan gaCeCilaZem mis “ucnob” ZmasTan erTad

SeamCnies xalxis undobloba politikosebis

mimarT da ivlisSi Seqmnes sazogadoebrivi

moZraoba “daicavi saqarTvelo”, sadac im

inteleqtualur elitas mouyares Tavi,

romelTa saxelebi mTelma saqarTvelom

icoda. maT saqarTvelos dacva undodaT,

magram riTi, gaugebari iyo (es parlamentis

Tavmjdomaris d. baqraZis im mowodebas

waagavda, agvistos omis dros xalxs rom

mimarTa – samzareulos danebiT da CanglebiT

daicaviT saqarTveloo). am tal-kvesmac

naperwkali ver gaaCina.

weliwadis droebi politikas ar emorCileba. modioda zafxuli, roca Tbilisi dasasveneblad midis, anu qalaqidan wavidoda opoziciis dasayrdeni - xalxi. aqciebis Semodgomaze ganaxlebis muqariT sayrden moSlilma opoziciam karvebi aiRo parlamentis mimdebare teritoriidanac. saqarTvelos uaxles istoriaSi yvelaze xangrZlivi, 107-dRiani saprotesto aqcia dasrulda 24 ivliss. mravali dapirebis miuxedavad, igi aRar ganaxlebula.

aprilis movlenebidan arsebobas ganagrZobda mxolod “sakani #5”. Zveleburi SemarTeba da optimizmi aklda “ucnobs”. aRarc inteligencia Canda xSirad, Tu Canda – opoziciuri mosaxleobisTvis saimedos verafers ambobda. xolo mxolod imis gameoreba, rom xelisufleba cudia, am gadacemis mayurebels aRar akmayofilebda. mas aRar sWirdeboda diagnozi, is eloda recepts – winadadebebs, rogor SeiZleba Seicvalos xelisufleba.

aseTi winadadebac gamoCnda – 22 seqtembers

“aliansma” sajarod daafiqsira, rom is iRebs

monawileobas prezidentis mier gamocxadebul

TviTmmarTvelobis arCevnebSi, raTa

Tbilisis meris Tanamdebobidan gaagrZelos

brZola xelisuflebis sruli SecvlisTvis.

“ucnobisTvis”, romelic prezidentis

gadadgomas aprilSi eloda, miuRebeli iyo

prezidentTan brZola misi SenarCunebiT

da arCevnebSi monawileobis Temaze kamaTs

araerTi satelevizio Rame miuZRvna. kamaTebSi

aqtiurobis miuxedavad gia gaCeCilaZes

minc etyoboda gamouvalobisgan gaCenili

sasowarkveTis niSnebi. misi samkurnalod

wasvlis mizeziT gadacema Sewyda. “ucnobi”,

aprilis ukanaskneli mohikani, qalaqidan

gaqra.

2008 wlis agvistos omSi xelisfleba Tavisi windauxedaobiT damarcxda. am omis mimarT protestis dros opoziciam zustad igive Secdoma dauSva – ar gaiTvaliswina movlenaTa ganviTarebis yvela SesaZlo scenari da aseve damarcxda. mmarTvelma gundma agvistos mouTmenloba aprilis moTminebiT, agvistos windauxedaoba aprilis gamWriaxobiT, agvistos marcxi aprilis gamarjvebiT gaawonaswora da xelisufleba SeinarCuna. opoziciam ki swored mouTmenlobiT da windauxedaobiT waago politikuri omi, romlis jariskacad TiTqmis mTeli inteligencia da asiaTasobiT moqalaqe dadga. albaT, agvistoSic da aprilSic moxda is, rac unda momxdariyo – waago iman, vinc ar gaakeTa saWiro gaTvlebi, anu Catarda mZime gakveTili politikosebisTvis, romelmac kidev erTxel dagvarwmuna, rom politika WidaobasTan erTad Wadrakic aris.

90

Salva fiCxaZe

gamoTxovebis weliwads Tqmuli…

2009 wlis dekemberSi gardaicvala

damoukidebel eqspertTa klubis erT-

erTi damfuZnebeli , arasamTavrobo

organizacia Georgia for NATO-s

xelmZRvaneli, politologi Salva

fiCxaZe - profesionali, Rirseuli

moqalaqe, araCveulebrivad

keTilganwyobili optimisti.

Salva damoukidebel eqspertTa klubis

mier gamocemuli pirveli krebulis erT-

erTi avtori gaxldaT. mas am krebulis

Tanaavtorobis imedic hqonda..…

samwuxarod, mxolod is SevZeliT, rom

2009 wlis ganmavlobaSi sxvadasxva

gazeTSi gamoqveynebuli Salva fiCxaZis

interviuebidan mcire fragmentebi

SemogveTavazebina.

“Rimilis momgvrelia is aRtaceba, romliTac saqarTvelos xelisufleba natos xelmZRvanelobis gancxadebas Sexvda. diax, natos kari Riaa saqarTvelosTvis, magram gana odesme Crdiloatlantikuri aliansis mesveurebs romelime qveynisaTvis uTqvamT, es kari daketiliao? natos wesdebis Tanaxmad, nebismier evropul qveyanas aqvs ufleba da perspeqtiva natoSi Sesvlisa. ubralod, aq erTi Zireuli da mniSvnelovani momentia gasaTvaliswinebeli, razec natos mesveurebs araerTxel usaubriaT, Tumca Cveni xelisufleba maT naTqvams jiutad ar aqcevs yuradRebas.

saqme is gaxlavT, rom natos kari ara Signidan, aramed garedan iReba. Sig Sesvlis msurvel saxelmwifos ki unda Seswevdes misi gamoRebis unari, vinaidan kari Signidan ar aris Caketili. ase rom, bunebrivia, Cveni dasavleli partniorebi uars arasodes gvetyvian.

es daaxloebiT iseTive SemTxvevaa, vinmem rom Tqvas, sam TveSi zafxuli movao da Cven saerTo-saxalxo zeimi gamovacxadoT am “winaswarmetyvelebasTan” dakavSirebiT. saWiroa konteqsti kargad gavigoT, rom raime ar agverios. diax, aqcenti ukrainasa da saqarTveloze keTdeba, magram ara imitom, rom am or qveyanas organizaciis wevrobis gansakuTrebuli Sansi aqvs, ubralod, jer-jerobiT aseT survils mxolod ukraina da saqarTvelo gamoTqvamen. sxvas amis survili ar gamouTqvams, Torem rom gamoeTqva, buqarestis natos samitis Semajamebel dokumentSi imasac Cawerdnen, aucileblad gaxdeba natos wevrio.

natos wevri aucileblad gaxdeba nebismieri msurveli qveyana, romelic am organizaciis parametrebs daakmayofilebs da imas gaakeTebs, rasac nato iTxovs. rom ar vakeTebT, amaSia saqme. rac Seexeba ruseTis

natos kari ara Signidan, aramed garedan iReba

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moqmedebaTa dagmobas, ratom warmovaCenT am yvelafers ise, TiTqos es qarTuli diplomatiis didi miRweva iyos. Cveni miRweva ki ar aris, natos interesebSi ar Sedis saqarTvelos teritoriaze ruseTis bazebis ganTavseba. es is SemTxvevaa, roca Cveni interesebi erTmaneTs emTxveva.”

(“nato da evropa “gmoben”, ruseTi bazebs mainc aSenebs”. “kviris palitra” 23 Tebervali-1 marti 2009)

saqarTveloSi stabiluroba demokratiis gareSe SeuZlebelia

“vfiqrob, dasavleTSi ukve momwifda azri, rom saqarTveloSi stabiluroba demokratiis gareSe SeuZlebelia da kidec unda miiRon politikuri gadawyvetileba amasTan dakavSirebiT. Cven ar varT centraluri aziis qveyana, sadac SesaZlebelia usamarTlo reJimi gqondes da Tan stabiluroba SeinarCuno. Cveni xalxi, misda sasaxelod, amas ar egueba. amis magaliTia 2007 wlis Svidi noemberic da 2008 wlis agvistos movlenebic, rodesac arademokratiulma reJimma qveyana omSi Caaba.

amitomac, vfiqrob, dasavleTma unda miiRos politikuri gadawyvetileba, rom, Tu saqarTveloSi ar iqneba pluralizmi xelisuflebaTa kanonzomieri monacvleobiT, stabilurobac ver iqneba. man unda aiZulos Cveni dRevandeli xelisufleba, misces gasaqani alternatiul Zalas da Seqmnas konkurentuli garemo, sadac vinc gaimarjvebs, is marTavs qveyanas.”

(“nato da evropa “gmoben”, ruseTi bazebs mainc aSenebs” “kviris palitra” 23 Tebervali-1 marti 2009)

taliavinis daskvna isec da asec, ruseTisaTvis metad mZime da kritikuli iqneba, imitom, rom is iqneba obieqturi

“taliavinis daskvna isec da asec, ruseTisaTvis metad mZime da kritikuli iqneba, imitom, rom is iqneba obieqturi.

rogorc unda vTqvaT da vis Secdomebzec unda visaubroT, faqti faqtad rCeba – ruseTma agvistoSi udidesi danaSauli Caidina. amave dros, taliavinis daskvna arc Cveni xelisuflebisaTvis iqneba sasiamovnod mosasmeni da gasagebi, radgan isic, rac Cven gavakeTeT agvistoSi, sakmaod mZimea.

albaT, daskvnis gamoqveynebisTanave CairTveba saxelisuflebo propagandis manqana da atydeba aJiotaJi, Tu rogor moscxo taliavinis komisiam ruseTs. magram darwmunebuli var, amave daskvnaSi saqarTvelos kritikac iqneba _ iseve, rogorc es saparlamento asambleis daskvnaSi, evrokavSirisa da amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saxelmwifo departamentis gancxadebebSi iyo, rodesac es qveynebi ruseTs araproporciuli pasuxisTvis akritikeben. Tu kacma elementaruli qarTuli icis, isic unda icodes, “pasuxi” ras niSnavs _ ese igi, saqarTvelosac ekisreba movlenaTa eskalaciis dawyebisTvis pasuxismgebloba...

me ufro imaze vwuxvar, am da sxva faqtebis gamo, ise ar gagvixdes saqme, rom dasavleTma ukve ara mxolod xelisuflebas, mTlianad Cvens qveyanas Seaqcios zurgi _ amaTgan mainc araferi gamovao. es kidev erTi nabiji iqneba imisken, rom saqarTvelo sabolood darCes martodmarto ruseTis pirispir.” (“qarTuli “gasaberi” politmowyobilobebi...” “kviris palitra” 8 ivnisi, 2009)

Sida politikuri dapirispirebisas xelisuflebas yovelTvis meti pasuxismgebloba ekisreba

“...Sida politikuri dapirispirebisas xelisuflebas yovelTvis meti pasuxismgebloba ekisreba _ara imitom, rom romelime qveyanaSi xelisufleba opoziciaze uaresia; ubralod, xelisuflebas gaaCnia meti berketi imisaTvis, rom viTareba ganmuxtos. da is valdebulia, es berketebi gamoiyenos. amitom pasuxismgebloba, ra Tqma unda, xelisuflebas ekisreba pirvel rigSi, Tumca opoziciac, xandaxan danis pirze gadis xolme. jerjerobiT opozicia axerxebs viTarebis imgvarad ganmuxtvas, rogorc es moxda,

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magaliTad, 26 maiss, saRamos.”

(“vadamdeli arCevnebi, arCevnebi 2013-Si Tu revolucia? “rezonansi” 27 ivnisi 2009”)

damdgar wyals SeiZleba Waobi daarqva da SeiZlebamas daarqva tba

“SeiZleba destabilizaciisken wavideT. amas revolucia daerqmeva, Tu sxva ram, me ver getyviT. magram revolucia, rogorc wesi, warmatebul gadatrialebas erqmeva xolme. warumatebels mere putCi erqmeva, an kidev _ ra vici, amboxi da aTasi ubedureba... destabilizaciis seriozuli safrTxe arsebobs: ukmayofilebis muxti ar qreba, miuxedavad imisa, rom sadRac saknebi aiRes. xelisufleba arafris daTmobas ar apirebs. viTareba daZabulobis eskalaciisken midis. mere ki... gaaCnia, vin ras daarqmevs. damdgar wyals SeiZleba Waobi daarqva, da SeiZleba mas daarqva tba. gaaCnia, vin ras daarqmevs.”

(“vadamdeli arCevnebi, arCevnebi 2013-Si Tu revolucia? “rezonansi” 27 ivnisi 2009”)

dasavleTis SesaZlo reaqciaze ruseTs im droisaTvis niadagi ukve mosinjuli hqonda

“eWvi mepareba, rom cxinvalSi farTomasStabiani samxedro moqmedebebis gaSlamde moskovma winaswar Sesabamisi signalebi ar daugzavna dasavleTis qveynebs. cxadia, am signalebSi detalurad ar iqneboda aRwerili, konkretulad ras da rodis apirebda ruseTis generaluri Stabi, magram savaraudo moqmedebebze namdvilad mianiSnebdnen... es arc imas niSnavs, rom 7 agvistomde dasavleTma da ruseTma moilaparakes da cxinvalis bedi gaarkvies, magram dasavleTis SesaZlo reaqciaze ruseTs im droisaTvis niadagi ukve mosinjuli hqonda.

SeuZlebelia, kremls es ar gaekeTebina _ amas mxolod briyvi Tu Caidenda. viZaxoT, rusebi briyvebi arian da Jangiani tankebi hyavTo, magram mTlad asec ar aris saqme...

moskovSi, ase Tu ise, agvistomde, mapatieT gamoTqmisTvis, magram ukve “azrze iyvnen”, ra reaqcia mohyveboda maT SeteviT operaciebs saqarveloze. medvedevis rixianobis mizezi “Sida moxmareba” gaxlavT _ es “rixi” nawilobriv rus amomrCevelze iyo gaTvlili, nawilobriv ki ucxoeTze, _ Cven mainc Cvensas mivaRwieTo. da marTlac, _ rusebma samxedro gamarjvebas miaRwies, amJamad ki am gamarjvebis politikur kapitalSi gadayvanis procesi mimdnareobs. riTi damTavrdeba yvelaferi, Zneli saTqmelia. darwmunebuli var, ruseTi diplomatiur asparezze aqtiur muSaobas agrZelebs imisTvis, rom afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis aRiarebis procesSi marto ar darCes. amgvari mcdeloba jer-jerobiT warumatebelia, magram ruseTi kargad acnobierebs, rom es procesi xangrZlivi da rTuli iqneba da amisTvis mzad aris.

Cvenc unda gavacnobieroT, rom teritoriuli mTlianobis aRdgenis procesi uaRresad rTuli da xangrZlivia da im SemTxvevaTa rigs ar miekuTvneba, rodesac saxelmwifos swrafi warmatebis imedi SeiZleba hqondes.”

(“ruseTi saqarTvelos SeiaraRebas win ver aRudgeba”. “kviris palitra” 10-16 agvisto 2009)

araferic ar CamoiSleba TavisiT

“xelisuflebis Tanazomadi Zala arc erT opoziciur Zalas ar aqvs _ imitom, rom xelisufleba Seezarda saxelmwifos. igive suraTia, rac komunistebis dros iyo: partia da saxelmwifo niSnavda erTsa da igives. rodesac amboben, opozicia sustiao, visTan SedarebiTaa susti, isic daazuston: “nacmoZraobasTan” SedarebiT? Tu saxelmwifosTan SedarebiT? “nacmoZraobasTan” SedarebiT SeiZleba, ar aris susti: jer cal-calke ar daWidebian erTmaneTs. saxelmwifosTan SedarebiT ki susti iqneba, rasakvirvelia...

komunistebs eg hqondaT! araferic ar CamoiSleba TavisiT. Zalian kargad iarsebebs kidev mraval wels. adamianis bunebis winaaRmdeg mimarTul reJimebsac SeuZliaT Zalian didxans iarsebon. komunistebs sxva araferi hqondaT. ki, uWirda sabWoTa kavSirs,

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talonebic iyo, maxsovs, rogor davrbodi karaqisa da kvercxis sayidlad talonebiT xelSi da gayinuli dampali xorcis sayidlad, magram arsebobda is qveyana.rom ara dasavleTis zewoliT Signidan ngreva, avad Tu kargad, kidev didxans iarsebebda. aqac igiveze dgas saxelmwifo: represiuli aparati da tvinebis gamolayeba.”

(“araferic ar CamoiSleba TavisiT.” “rezonansi”, 24 agvisto, 2009)

imasTan Sexvedraa saWiro da aucilebeli, visTanac problemebi gaqvs

“gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis tribunas sakmaod praqtikuli mniSvneloba da datvirTva aqvs... es aris ormxrivi, Tundac kuluaruli Sexvedrebi. ramdenadac vici, amjerad es Sansi gamoyenebuli ar yofila, iseve, rogorc ar gamogviyenebia gasul wlebSi, radgan xelisufleba aseT sakiTxebs nakleb mniSvnelobas aniWebs xolme... rodesac am tipis Sexvedrebze vsaubrob, sulac ar vgulisxmob obamasTan an sxva Cvens strategiul partniorTan Sexvedras. TavisTavad, kritikisaTvis Zalze mosaxerxebelia imaze apelireba, rom obamasTan Sexvdra ver moxerxda. diplomatiaSi muSaobis Tormetwliani gamocdilebidan kargad vici, rom aseTi donis Sexvedris organizeba arc ise iolia. TavisTavad is faqti, rom obamasTan Sexvedra ver moxerxda, imas ar niSnavs, rom amerikelebma zurgi gvaqcies.

me ufro sxva Sexvedrebs vgulisxmobdi _ keTilmosurneebTan ki ara, avismzraxvelTan Sexvedras. aseTi donis saerTaSoriso RonisZiebebi imiT aris mosaxerxebeli, rom sagangebod ar amzadeb am Sexvedras, rakiRa yvela iq aris, es TavisTavad, yovelgvari arasasurveli komentarisa da aJiotaJis gareSe SeiZleba moxdes. vfiqrob, aseTive Sexvedrebi da muSaoba iyo saWiro postsabWoTa sivrcis im qveynebTanac, romlebic ruseTis e.w. satelitebi arian da romlebzec amJamad moskovis aqtiuri zewola mimdinareobs afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukideblobis cnobis TvalsazrisiT. ramdenadac CemTvis asambleis mimdinareobis

Sesaxeb aris cnobili, aseTi Sexvedris organizeba ar momxdara. zogadad, ara mxolod gaeros konteqstSi vgulisxmob: imasTan Sexvedra ki ar aris saWiro, visTanac ukve yvelaferi garkveuli gaqvs da ici, erTmaneTisgan ra gsurT, aramed imasTan Sexvedraa saWiro da aucilebeli, visTanac problemebi gaqvs.”

(“sasowarkveTili nabiji, Tu Tavisufali arCevani” “kviris palitra” 28 seqtemberi, 2009)

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Zalian cudi iqneba, Tuki iolad daviviwyebT adamianebs, romlebsac uflis nebiT SevxvdiT amqveynad da erTad mogviwia msaxureba – miTumetes, Tu erTi Taobis warmomadgenlebi varT – Taobisa, romelsac istoriis axirebis ZaliT epoqebs Soris xidis rolis Seesruleba mouwia da visi Zalisxmevac yvelaze naklebad aris saCino. am Taobam xom TiTqos yvelaferi gaakeTa saimisod, rom qveyanas Tavi aeridebina nacional–utopisturi Tu nacional–nihilisturi, fundamentalisturi Tu laicisturi, nacional–fetiSisturi Tu postliberaluri da kidev sxva mravali ukiduresobebisagan.

Znelia imis Tqma, Tu ramdenad moaxerxes es. erTi cxadia, am Taobas hyavda ramdenime aTeuli warmomadgeneli, romlebic Zalas ar iSurebdnen da simarTles ambobdnen maSin, rodesac misi Tqma saxifaTo, ufro metic – uadgilo iyo. Cans, aris raRac bavSvurad jansaRi da ueSmako am adamianebSi. maT swamdaT is, risic cotas Tu vinmes swams – rom WeSmariteba yvelaferze maRla dgas, rom arc erTi yvelaze momxiblavi politikuri idea Tu ideologia ar Rirs saimisod, rom WeSmaritebas, qveyanasa da sazogadoebas avno, rom Seni qveyana ar aris Seni mesianisturi vnebaTaRelvis dakmayofilebis adgili da sxvani. TiTqos sruliad cxadi garemoebebia da mainc, memkvidreobiT miRebuli sabWouri plebeizmi ar gvaZlevs saSualebas, aristokratuli RirsebiT ar miviRoT is, risi miRebac dauSvebelia da miviRoT is, rac gonebisa da zneobis kanonebs Seesabameba. Znelia es, miT ufro, rom gabatonebula maradi plebeuri formula: axla asea saWiro, axla ase unda vifiqroT, vilaparakoT da vimoqmedoT. Sedegad ki miviReT is, rac miviReT.

Salva am Taobis erT–erTi saukeTeso warmomadgeneli iyo. 2001–2005 wlebSi or kviraSi erTxel regularulad vxvdebodi. ocamde adamians merab mamardaSvilis saxelobis araformaluri klubi gvqonda. romelime Cvengani amzadebda mokle moxsenebas da Semdeg vmsjelobdiT. miuxedavad imisa, rom Cvens saqmianobaSi ramdenime Jurnalistic iyo CarTuli, Tu ar vcdebi, erTxelac ar gagvixmaurebia mis Sesaxeb. es ufro TanamoazreTa Tavmoyras hgavda, es ufro mcdeloba iyo CvenTvis, masmediis Tvalis gareSe gavrkveuliyaviT, Tu ra xdeboda Cvens qveyanaSi.

piradad me imis winaaRmdegic viyavi, rom klubisaTvis raime dafinanseba gveSovna da, rogorc maxsovs, Salvac meTanxmeboda. Zalian ar gvindoda, rom klubis Sexvedrebi damsgavseboda ase momravlebul seminarebsa da vorkSofebs, romlebic, umal, importirebuli koncefciebisa da savaldebulo sicxadeebis aTvisebasa da gavrcelebas emsaxureba, vidre Ziebas. bolos da bolos, sakiTxi ase dgeboda: SegveZlo Tu ara Cven Cveni nebiTa da wadiliT, yovelgvari politikuri Tu finansuri motivaciisa Tu biZgis gareSe, SevkrebiliyaviT da gvefiqra imaze, raze fiqrsac saWirod vTvlidiT. es unda yofiliyo yovelgvari gare valdebulebisagan Tavisufali sivrce, adgili, sadac araferi SegviSlida xels sakuTari Tavi Cveni qveynis patronebad gvegrZno da sakiTxi dagvesva iseT garemoebebzec, rac sajaro sivrceSi rom ukve aRar ismeba – yvelam icis, Tumca ki naklebad aqvT warmodgena, Tu ras niSnavs. hoda Cvenc xelaxla vsvamdiT kiTxvebs damoukideblobis, religiis, demokratiis, liberalizmis, amerikanizmisa Tu rusofiliis, nacionalizmisa da sxvaTa Sesaxeb. Cvens

zaza firaliSvili

liberalizmi demokratiis gareSe

Salva fiCxaZis xsovnas

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garemoSi ar unda earseba savaldebulo saazrovno normebs.

Salvas erTma Tvisebam imTaviTve momxibla: mas hqonda unari, marTlad da patiosnad eazrovna, marTali da patiosani pozicia hqonoda maSinac ki, rodesac sxvebi ukve SeTanxmebulebi viyaviT rameze. mas hqonda is Tviseba, risi deficitic ase mwvavea Cvens politikur garemoSi: politikur interesebze maRla damdgariyo da eWvi gamoeTqva maSin, rodesac es eWvi mis interesebs upirispirdeba.

am ramdenime Tvis win Tavis radiogadacemaSi mimiwvia. gazafxuli iyo da politikuri vnebaTaRelva zenitSi gaxldaT. me arc erT politikur jgufs ar mivakuTvnebdi Tavs da ar vmalavdi, rom eWvi mepareboda opoziciis politikur perspeqtivaSi. bednieri viyavi, rodesac es damidastura man – kacma, romelic mWidrod iyo dakavSirebuli opoziciur ZalebTan. maSin kidev erTxel davrwmundi, Tu rogori ucxo iyo misTvis ukve naxsenebi mdabiuri principi: axla asea saWiro. saqarTveloSi dRes sanTliT aris saZiebeli aseTi keTilSobileba. CvenSi Zalze cotaa adamiani, romelic sakuTar Tavs uflebas aZlevs, ifiqros ise, rogorc mas hkarnaxobs gonebisa da zneobis kanonebi da ara ise, rogorc “saWiroa”. es iyo naTeli, Tanamimdevruli da keTilSobili azrovnebis yaidis adamiani.

misTvis amerikanizmi arasodes niSnavda fuqsavatur aRtacebas da, miTumetes, imgvar utopiur azrovnebas, rodesac sakuTar mWle da zerele ocnebebis proeqcirebas axdenen arsad da arasodes arsebul amerikaze.

vinme seriozul amerikels dRes rom gaego, Tu rogor esmiT Cveni TvalsaCino “zapadnikebis” did nawils, amerikuli cxovrebis yaida - SeiZleba SeZrwunebuliyo. warmoidgineT, ra xasiaTze dadgeboda igi imis aRmoCeniT, rom Cvens “zapadnikebs” azrad mouvidaT, amosaval principebad mieCniaT is, rom CvenSi, Cvens kulturul garemoSi arasodes araferi Rirebuli ar Seqmnila da arc Seiqmneba, rom demokratiisa da liberalizmis gasaviTareblad aucilebelia tradiciebis ngreva, sabolood, adamianis gasaTavisufleblad liberalizmisaTvis xelisSemSleli metafizikuri tkivilisagan saWiroa (rac Tavisi TavqarianobiT yvelaze metad maognebs), seqsualuri revolucia zemodan.

sxvisi ar vici da me verafriT damikavSirebia erTmaneTTan amgvari Cegevarizmi da amerikanizmi. arada, saqarTveloSi dRes swored am oris SeTavsebas cdiloben.

naTqvamia, saSinelebaa didi ideebi patara TavebSio. Salvas CemTan uTqvams, Tu ra safrTxes Seicavs mavanTa mcdeloba, Cveni qveyana maT mWle warmosaxvaSi arsebul holandiur sofels daamsgavson. dasavluri orientacia misTvis qveynisa da pirovnebis xsnis Sansi iyo, da ara ideologiuri Tu politikuri koniunqtura Tavisi dogmatebiTa da mrwamsiT (mamardaSvilis sityvebs gavimeoreb), axal tyveobas rom pirdeba adamianebs. swored amgvar mdabiurad gagebul, fuqsavat amerikanizms ki garduvalad mosdevs is, rasac erTxel (mapatieT TviTcitireba) liberalizmi demokratiis gareSe vuwode.

ar vaWarbeb: yoveli iseTi adamiani, rogoric Salva fiCxaZe iyo, sakuTari sazogadoebis kapitalia. mniSvneloba ara aqvs, veTanxmebiT mas Tu – ara. mTavari aq sxva ramea. mTavari is aris, rom aseTi adamianebi Cven azrovnebisa da qcevis maRal kriteriumebs gvTavazoben da amiT Cvens cxovrebas sul mcirediT mainc ukeTess xdian. samwuxarod, Cvens qveyanas aklia aseTi adamianebi – isini, visac SeuZlia adamianis Rirseba ganasaxieros Tundac imiT, rom marTlad da patiosnad iazrovnebs maSin, rodesac yvelaferi amis winaaRmdeg aris mimarTuli da uars ityvis im Tavqarian inteleqtualur karnavalSi monawileobaze, romelsac CvenSi zogjer azrovnebas eZaxian.

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agvistos katastrofis Sedegebi kidev didxans, Zalian didxans iqneba Cveni sazogadoebis kvlevis sagani. arc erTi WkuaTmyofeli adamiani ar idavebs imaze, rom Cvenma xelisuflebam, ubralod, ver gauZlo im gamowvevebs, romelTa winaSec is 2008 wlis agvistoSi dadga. arc is unda dagvaviwydes, rom agvistos katastrofamde movlenaTa ganviTarebis, erTi SexedviT, absurdulma jaWvma migviyvana, romelic sabediswero Tanamdevia saqarTvelos istoriisa, dRidan damoukideblobis gamocxadebisa.

am procesebis, ise rogorc xelisuflebis danaSaulebrivi Secdomebis kvleva scildeba Cvens kompetencias. Tumca, amiT Cveni mizani nakleb aqtualuri ar xdeba, vinaidan vapirebT SevexoT im sabediswero stereotipebs, romlebmac arsobrivad ganapirobes Cveni marcxi 2008 wlis agvistoSi. am sterotipebze da maTgan gamomdinare qmedebebze ara mxolod xelisufleba agebs pasuxs, aramed sazogadoebis mniSvnelovani nawilic. saqme exeba imas, Tu rogor aRiqvamda Cveni mTavroba da Cveni sazogadoeba msoflioSi mimdinare procesebs.

globalur Tu regionalur doneze mimdinare procesebis Seufasebloba rogorc xelisuflebis, ise sazogadoebis mxridan, agvistos katastrofis erT-erT umTavres mizezad iqca. arada sakiTxi, Tu ramdenad ganapirobes Cveni elitis da sazogadoebis didi nawilis mier msoflioSi mimdinare procesebis uprimitiulesma aRqmam Cveni kraxi, sazogadoebis ganxilvis sagani arc gamxdara.

Cveni ZiriTadi Tezisi Semdegia: Cveni kraxi sruliad logikuri iyo, vinaidan Cven saerTaSoriso urTierTobebSi mimdinare procesebs vuyurebdiT sruliad araadekvaturi sqemebiT da Sesabamisad, vakeTebdiT sruliad araadekvatur daskvnebs. amasTan, Cveni xedvebi da daskvnebi rusuli mxaris xedvebis da daskvnebis sarkisebr

asaxvas warmoadgenda. amasTan, qarTuli mxare situaciis ganxilvisas sami ZiriTadi postulatidan gamodioda:

sul mcire erekles droidan momavali 1. da SevardnaZis mier gacocxlebuli Tezisidan imis Sesaxeb, rom saqarTvelom unda iSovnos “kargi patroni”, romelic “cudi patronisagan” dagvicavs;

klasikuri geopolitikuri skolis 2. principidan, romelic amtkicebs, rom geografia calsaxad, erTmniSvnelovnad da samaradJamod gansazRvravs politikis xasiaTs.

Tezisidan, rom saqarTvelos unikaluri 3. mdebareoba TavisTavad aris garantia imisa, rom dasavluri saxelmwifoebi ar dauSveben ruseTis agresias (es, rogorc movlenebis ganviTarebam gvaCvena. sruliad araadekvaturi daskvna iyo, Tumca logikurad gamomdinareobda klasikuri geopolitikuri midgomidan).

qvemoT Cven Tanmimdevrulad ganvixilavT samive aspeqts da SevecdebiT vaCvenoT maTi sabediswero gadajaWvuloba, romelmac migviyvana kidec agvistos tragediamde. Zalian pesimistur notaze rom ar gamogvivides saTqmelis dasruleba, gamovTqvamT zogierT mosazrebasac msoflioSi mimdinare procesebis analizisaTvis axali paradigmis SesamuSaveblad da zogadad movxazavT am paradigmis konturebs.

politikuri procesebis aRqma qarTul sazogadoebaSi

daaxloebiT 100 wlis win gamocemul erT-erT werilSi arCil jorjaZe gulistkiviliT aRniSnavda, rom qarTul sagazeTo sivrceSi ara da ar yalibdeba sakiTxis filosofiurad ganxilvis kultura. moazrovne imeds gamoTqvamda, rom es odesme moxdeboda.

kaxa kacitaZe

miTebis dasasruli

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mas Semdeg asi weli gavida da viTareba didad ar Secvlila. es gansakuTrebiT exeba saqarTvelos sagareo politikas. Cvens sazogadoebaSi gabatonebulia rwmena, rom am sfroSi viRaceebi yvelafers uCvenodac gadawyveten. es ki apriori gamoricxavs am Temaze diskusiis warmoebis survilsac ki. metic, Cvens beWdviT mediaSi (xelisuflebis kontrolirebul sxvadasxva telekompaniaze - `rusTavebze~ arafers vityviT) praqtikulad ar gvxdeba sagareo politikasTan dakavSirebuli analitikuri masalebi (seriozul masalaze vlaparakob da ara imaze obama - medvedevis Sexvedris kadrebs rom gviCveneben da gvamcnoben -obamas saakaSvilTan xanmokle Sexvedra hqondao).

eqspertebi politikur sakiTxebSi, mxolod sagazeTo interviuebiT ifarglebian da perioduladac ar mosdiT azrad TavianTi Sexedulebebi ufro mecnieruli formiT, statiis an monografiis saxiT warmoadginon. samarcxvino viTarebaa! bolo wlebis ganmavlobaSi saqarTveloSi amdeni ram moxda da erTi seriozuli, met-naklebad mecnierul doneze gamocemuli wigni ar mogvepoveba ganviTarebul procesebze. adamianTa erTi nawili, vinc aseT wignebs unda werdes, xelisuflebisTvis gundrukis frqveviTaa dakavebuli (ara aqvs mniSvneloba vinaa am gundrukis frqvevis procesSi xelisuflebaSi). meore nawili opoziciuri Sinaarsis interviuebis gacemiT ifargleba.

gansxvavebiT samxedro Tematikisgan, CvenSi ar, Tu ver Camoyalibda JurnalistTa korpusi, romelic odnav damakmayofileblad mainc moaxerxebda imis gaSuqebas, Tu ra xdeba msoflioSi da ra zegavlenas axdenen es procesebi saqarTveloze. Sedegad publika verc ki xvdeba, ra xdeba Cvens irgvliv da lela kakulias winaswarmetyvelebebiT iazrebs yovelives, rac Tavs gvatydeba.

es sayveduri sxvebTan erTad, cxadia, am striqonebis avtorsac exeba. Tumca marto wuwuni saqmes ar uSvelis. Cveni sazogadoeba unda gascdes infantilur gansjas politikuri procesebis Sesaxeb, bolos da bolos gaiazros, ra xdeba samyaroSi, ra xdeba Cvens irgvliv da ra unda gaakeTos Cvenma sazogadoebam.

dRes qarTvelebi vgavarT im pirvelyofil adamians, romelic Spengleris TqmiT, samyaros yofs sakuTar qoxad, sakuTar soflad da

yvela danarCenad. ubedurebani, rac Tavs dagvatyda, sakmarisi ar aRmoCnda, raTa sazogadoebas daewyo farTo da produqtiuli diskusia imaze, Tu sad varT, ra gvinda da rogor mivaRwioT sasurvel miznebs. amasTan, dRevandel zeglobalizebul garemoSi, sadac zimbabveSi xidan Camovardnilma bananma SesaZloa gavlena moaxdinos laris kursze, iSviaTi SemarTebiT vagrZelebT sakuTar wvenSi xarSvas. da es araa mxolod viTomcda dasavleTSi ganaTlebamiRebuli xelisuflebis brali (bolosdabolos, pol-potsac warCinebiT hqonda sorbona damTavrebuli). amaze pasuxs mTlianad sazogadoebac agebs. sakuTar wvenSi amgvarma xarSvam saboloo jamSi kidev met ubedurebamde SeiZleba migviyvanos (Tumca, Znelia warmoidgino, raRa SeiZleba iyos amaze meti ubedureba). saWiroa procesebs sxvagvarad mivudgeT, sxvagvarad movaxdinoT maTi analizi.

faqtia rom damoukideblobis gamocxadebidan oci wlis Semdegac ki, saqarTvelos ar Seuqmnia arc erTi oficialuri konceptualuri xasiaTis dokumenti, romelic axsnida, rogori unda iyos saqarTvelos sagareo politika, ra meTodebiT unda ganisazRvrebodes misi strategia da ratom unda atarebdes esa Tu is sagareo politikuri gadawyvetileba swored aseT da ara sapirispiro xasiaTs. rasakvirvelia, aq SeiZleba vilaparakoT sruliad arakompetenturi kadrebis masobriv mozRvavebaze sagareo saqmeTa saministroSi `vardebis revoluvciis~ Semdeg (Tumca kvalificiuri kadrebis problema, Tanac Zalian seriozuli, manamdec arsebobda). magram aq saqme mxolod kadrebis deficits ar exeba. is kidev ufro mWidro kavSirSia paradigmebis deficitTan, anu im konceptualuri bazis ararsebobasTan, romelsac eyrdnobian mecnierebi, diplomatebi da politikosebi sagareo politikis gacnobierebisa da dagegmvisas.

Cven amdeni wlis manZilze ar SegvimuSavebia siRrmiseuli dokumenti, romelic saTanado mecnierul bazaze dayrdnobiT gaakeTebda daskvnas, rogori iqneba globaluri da CvenTvis saintereso regionaluri urTierTobebi xuTi, aTi, TxuTmeti, an oci wlis Semdeg. metic, ar Segviqmnia sistemaSi moyvanili Tugind zedapiruli da deklaraciuli xasiaTis dokumenti, romelic gansazRvravda saqarTvelos sagareo politikis ZiriTad mimarTulebebs (Tu

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aseTi dokumenti arsebobs, xelisuflebam migviTiTos masze).

arada, ras ifiqrebdnen 2003 wlis noembris dasasrulis momitingeebi, romlebic taSs ukravdnen ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa ministr ivanovs, rom politikuri dagegmvis TvalsazrisiT umokles vadaSi, sul raRac arasrul xuT weliwadSi omis mdgomareobaSi viqnebodiT rusebTan. aseTi magaliTebi mravlad SegviZlia moviyvanoT. magram es arsebiTi araa. mTavaria, rom saqarTvelo saakaSvilis mmarTvelobis mTel periodSi atarebs ara konceptualur principebze damyarebul da kompetenturi kadrebiT ganxorcielebul sagareo politikas, aramed ucnaur amalgamas. es amalgama pirad simpaTiebzea agebuli, umecreba - uwignurobiTaa Sezavebuli da Sekazmulia absoluturad araadekvatur stereotipepze damyarebuli qmedebebis erTianobiT, romelsac politikas verc vuwodebT. am mxriv saqarTvelos `sagareo politika~ arafriT gansxvavdeba iseTi qveynebis politikidan, rogoricaa zimbabve, avRaneTi, venesuela-nikaragua-bolivia. guldasawyvetia isic, rom Cvens fonze Cveni samxreTkavkasieli mezoblebis politika racionalizmis, pragmatizmis da erovnuli interesebis dacvis zeimad Cans.

sagulisxmoa, rom Cveni sagareo politika mainc ar aris bolomde moklebuli amosaval princips. Tumca, es principebi konceptebis ki ara, miTebis xasiaTs atarebs (rasakvirvelia, meoreul miTebze maqvs laparaki da ara arqaulze). miTs koncepciasTan SedarebiT erTi aSkara upiratesoba aqvs: is TvalsaCino xasiaTisaa da uSualod mimarTavs adamianis yvelaze siRmiseul emociur plasts. koncefcia gasagebi mizezebis gamo am unars moklebulia.

miTebi, romlebiTac ganvixilavT msoflioSi mimdinare procesebs, gvian SuasaukuneebSi saqarTvelos erTiani samefos kraxis Semdeg Camoyalibdnen da zigzagebiT moaRwies SevardnaZemde, romelmac, rogorc didma adeptma am politikuri miToparadigmebisa, sxva memkvidreobasTan erTad gadaabara isini saakaSvils. es miTebi ZiriTadad oramde daiyvaneba, romelTac Cven pirobiTad gondoris miTi da “patron – CaliC- gaCaliCebis” miTi vuwodeT.

saakaSvilis mTeli sagareo politika or

qvakuTxeds emyareba: am araadekvatur paradigmebs (ufro zustad miTodigmebs) da arakompetentur kadrebs, rac sruliad logikuria: giJuri paradigmis CarCoebSi muSaobas mxolod arakompetenturi kadrebi Tu moaxerxeben. meores mxriv, saqarTvelos umaRles eSelonebSi arsebuli ganwyobebi, romliTac ufro medicina unda dainteresdes, vidre politikuri mecnierebebi, am arakompetentur kadrebs ubiZgebs iqiTken, rom am avadmyofuri paradigmidan Sesabamisi daskvnebi da rekomendaciebi SeimuSavon xelisuflebisaTvis. erTi sityviT, Caketili wrea, Tanac SeSlili. amitomac viRebT imas, rasac viRebT: katastrofebis seriebs (mgoni ukve serialebs, Tanac laTinuramerikuli tipisa), romelTac xelisuflebis kontrolirebuli telearxebi did gamarjvebebad gvicxadeben. am mcire Sesavlis Semdeg ZiriTadi qarTuli sagareopolitikuri miTodigmebi ufro axlos SeiZleba davaxasiaToT.

mTavari miTi – saqarTvelo, rogorc gondori yvela eri, romelic tradiciulad cdilobs sakuTar istoriis gaazrebas, am istorias garkveuli miTis CarCoSi iazrebs. mTavar qarTul istoriul miTs SeiZleba `gondoris miTi~ vuwodoT. es saxeli tolkienis `beWdebis mbrZaneblidan~ aris aRebuli. gondori cixea, romelic im samyaros ekuTvnis, romelsac tolkieni imdroindel (XX saukunis 50-iani wlebis) politkoniuqturaze miTiTebiT `dasavleTs~ uwodebs. magram gondori ubralo dasavleTi araaa. is dasavleTis mijnaa, romelic uSualod esazRvreba borotebis samefos, mordors da aswleulebis manZilze ebrZvis mravalgzis aRmatebul Zalas, romelsac mTeli dasavleTis STanTqma surs. am brZolaSi is martoa. danarCeni dasavleTeli meufeni, romelTac mordoridan momavali safrTxe wesierad arc gaucnobierebiaT, gmirulad meomar gondors TiTqmis araviTar daxmarebas ar uweven. gondori mainc ibrZvis da swams: saswauli moxdeba, erTxelac dasavleTi gaimarjvebs da mefe dabrundeba. im politikuri realiebidan gamomdinare, romelsac tolkienis romanis werisas hqonda adgili, agreTve gondorel personaJTa dasavlur-slavuri saxelebidan (boromiri, faramiri..) gamomdinare SeiZleboda dagveskvna, rom gondoris prototipi ialtis

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xelSekrulebiT komunisturi tiraniisaTvis gadacemuli poloneTi da CexeTi iyvnen. magram es araa arsebiTi. mTavaria gondoris miTi: miTi gmir xalxze, romelic Tavdauzogavad ebrZvis borotebis sauflos. mas TanamoZmeTa daxmarebis imedi aqvs. magram TanamoZmeni dasavleTidan ar exmarebian.

erTi epizodi `beWdebis mrZaneblidan~: dasavleTis erebis da rasebis rCeuli warmomadgenlebi TaTbiroben, ra uqnan Zalauflebis beWeds, romlis arc gamoyeneba SeiZleba da arc ganadgureba. arada Tu borotebis meufem, mordoris gamgebelma sauronma es beWedi xelT igdo, dasavleTi dasaRupadaa ganwiruli. borotebis Sav meufes mxolod gondori ebrZvis. sakmarisia igi daeces, rom borotebis meufes gza dasavleTisken xsnili aqvs. daZabuli TaTbirisas misi erTi monawile fexze wamodgeba: ` maRali da amayi, boromiri fexze wamodga: ` - neba momeciT, ufalo elrond, jer gondorze mogiTxroT, rameTu swored gondoridan geaxeliT. yvelam unda uwyodes rac xdeba. bevrma araferi icis Cvens qmedebebze, amitomac vervin axerxebs swored Seafasos safrTxe, romlis winaSec Cveni marcxisas yvela dadgeba. ar daijeroT, TiTqos gondoris miwaze numenorelTa sisxlis yivili gadagvarda, arc maTi siqvele da Rirsebani Sesustebula. Cveni vaJkacoba akavebs aRmosavleTis velurTa zewolas... Cvenze, dasavleTis sayrdenze dgas Cvens iqiT myof xalxTa mSvidoba da Tavisufleba. magram ra moxdeba Tu mdinareze Cveni gamagrebebis daTmoba mogviwevs. ra moxdeba?~.

ar gecnoba mkiTxvelo? - boromiris sityvebSi mTavari qarTuli miTi cocxldeba! magram miTis srulad gacocxlebisaTvis saTanado personaJi da saTanado, mxolod miTisTvis damaxasiaTebeli logikaa saWiro. amgvari personaJi Cvens istoriaSi ramodenimea. yvelaze cnobili albaT sulxan-sabaa. eris mxcovani mama, romelic dasavleTma cinikurad moatyua, Cven qarTvelebma ar davindeT da sulac wveriT vaTrieT, xolo bedisweram imisTvisac ar gaimeta rom samSobloSi epovna samudamo gansasvenebeli. da aq mravalsaukunovani miTi borotebasTan martosulad brZolis, dasavleTis imedis da gulgrilobis miTi, dRevandel realiebs, sarkozisa da medvedevs, putinsa da milibands, natosa da maps ejaWveba. axla miTi aseT saxes iRebs: kidev erTxel gviRalates, rogorc maSin sulxan-sabas dros. migvatoves, ar

dagvexmaren, imis miuxedavad, rom mters, romelic maTac emuqreba - Cven martosulni vebrZodiT. da saerTod, Cveni biWebis daRvrili sisxliT msoflios vaCveneT mordoris, pardon, ruseTis boroteba. da amas Cveni zeliberalebi amtkiceben, romlebic cnebis Tanaxmad unda iyvnen Tavisufali yovelgvari miTebidan.

vidre aseTi miTopolitikuri midgoma saerTod ar amoiSleba qarTvelTa Tavebidan, mudam iq viqnebiT, sadac varT: virtualur realobaSi da sakuTar wvenSi xarSvaSi. miTi unda daimsxvres. manamde ki, ganwirulebi varT sagareopolitikur warumateblobaTa wreSi trialisaTvis.

meore ZiriTadi miTi _ patroni da CaliCi

gvian SuasaukuneebSi sxva faqtic iqna gacnobierebuli. gondorad, damarcxebisTvis ganwirul gmir mebrZolad yofna kargia, magram mainc da mainc sasiamovno ar aris. amitom Cveni politikis maSindelma saWeTmpyrobelebma daiwyes fiqri imaze, rogor gagveRo msoflios winaSe msxverpli ise, rom Tavad Cven ar davzaralebuliyaviT. am gaazrebaTa Sedegad Seiqmna meore ZiriTadi qarTuli politikuri miTi: `keTili~ Tu `kargi~ patronis arsebobaze da misi keTilganwyobis mopovebis gzebsa da saSualebebze.

es miTi sicocxlisunariani aRmoCnda. dRes Cveni sazogadoebis didi nawilis mier politikuri procesis gaazreba Suasaukunebrivi dinastiuri saxelmwifoebidan da dinastiuri politikidan momavali ori kategoriis irgvliv trialebs. maT pirobiTad SeiZleba vuwodoT `patroni~ da `Cawyoba~ (Tanamedrove varianti `CaliCi~). igulisxmeba, rom saWiroa `patroni~, Tanac kargi patroni, romelic dagvicavs yovelive cudisagan da gaakeTebs Cvens gasakeTebel yvela saqmes. aseTi patronis moZieba ase vTqvaT, strategiaa. taqtika ki `CaliCia~, sxvadasxva xerxiT da meTodiT unda davarwmunoT patroni, rom misi patronobis Rirsi varT, rom Cveni patronoba daufasdeba, rom Cveni patronobis safasurad yovelwliurad miiRebs ZRvnad or tona tyemals da ocdaxuT baTman lobios. aseTia politikis arsis aRqma ara mxolod

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sazogadoebis, aramed politikosTa mieradac. gavixsenoT, rogor eloda Cveni sazogadoeba rom `msoflio masStabis politikosi~ eduard SevardnaZe saWiro patrons mogviZebnida da yovelives ise Caawyobda masTan, rogorc saWiro iyo. rac yvelaze saxalisoa, darwmunebuli var, rom SevardnaZec igive sqemiT uyurebda procesebs.

Tumca araa swori am miTis warmoSobis dakavSireba maincadamainc SevardnaZis saxelTan. meore ZiriTad qarTul politikur miTs jer kidev guramiSvili afiqsirebs (kidev kargi, qarTulma xelisuflebam, ganaTlebis donidan gamomdinare, ar icis guramiSvilis arsebobis faqti, Torem saswrafod Caswerda didi poets `CasarecxTa~ siaSi). vaxtang VI –is sagareo politikis ganxilvisas (vaxtangis politika SeiZleba davaxasiaTiaToT rogorc balansirebis politikis adreuli varianti, oRond `kargi~ batonisadmi gansakuTrebulad gamoxatuli TayvaniscemiT), daviT guramiSvili wers:

mefes sZraxavdnen, ityodnen egeviTarsa gmobasa:sams did xelmwifes pirs aZlevs, samgan ikeTebs ymobasa!yeenis spasalaria, Tavs irWvams mis raymobasa!rust xelmwifesTan mamaobs, xvanTqarTan Cemobs Zmobasa!

`patroni – CaliCis~ midgoma saakaSvilis administraciis politikis qvakuTxeds warmoadgenda (axla aRar warmoadgens im martivi mizezis gamo, rom saqarTvelos xelisuflebam yvela SesaZlo patroni gadaikida -kargic da cudic). mizezebze, romlebmac ganapirobes, rom saqarTvelos dRevandel mmarTvelTa politika swored aseTia da ara sxvanairi, qvemoT vilaparakebT. axla mxolod aRvniSnavT, rom dRevandel xelisuflebas apriori arc SeeZleboda scodnoda sxva saxis politika. amas banaluri faqti ganapirobebs: adamianma sami wyarodan SeiZleba gaigos, ra aris politika da rogor SeiZleba misi warmoeba. es wyaroebia:

1. Teoria anu politikosobis mosurnem unda ikiTxos wignebi politikis, filosofiis, istoriis, ekonomikis, geografiis, samxedro saqmis da a.S. Sesaxeb;

2. praqtika, anu politikosobis mosurnem unda gaigos, ra aris politika mocemul

momentSi arsebuli politikur institutebSi muSaobis gamocdilebiT;

3. saukeTeso varianti: moaxdinos praqtikuli gamocdilebisa da Teoriuli codnis sinTezi.

Cveni xelisuflebis saarako umecrebis da wignis, rogorc aseTis, siZulvilidan gamomdinare, Cveni saWeTmpyrobelni sakuTari politikas Teoriuli wyaroebidan ver aiTvisebdnen. Sesabamisad isini verc Teoriuli codnis da praqtikuli gamocdilebis sinTezs moaxdendnen (magaliTi: xelisuflebaSi yofnisas b-ni oqruaSvili erTxel gamotyda, rom wignebi ise ejavreboda, rom mamamisi oTaxSi ketavda da ise aiZulebda kiTxvas. Sedegi cnobilia: moaruli WorebiT, b-ni oqruaSvili Tvlida, rom mas `xiStebi sWirdeba da ara tvinebi~. Sedegi: Tavdacvis erovnuli akademiis gauqmeba, ramac arcTu bolo roli iTamaSa cxinvalis katastrofaSi).

saakaSvilis administraciis momaval mesveurebs rCebodaT mxolod praqtikuli saqmianobidan (anu sxvadasxva Tanamdebobaze muSaobidan) miRebuli gamocdileba. magram sad muSaobdnen Cveni dRevandeli xelisufalni? Tu arasamTavrobo organizaciebs ar CavTliT, isini, rogorc wesi, isev SevardnaZis administraciaSi. es administracia ki politikas `patroni-CaliCis~ sqemis farglebSi awyobda.

im martivi mizezis gamo, rom sxva saxis politika Cvenma dRevandelma xelisuflebma ubralod ar uwyodnen, marTvis sadaveebis xelSi aRebis Semdeg igive praqtika gaagrZeles. erTi is iyo, SevardnaZis masStabebs ver miaRwies. bolo-bolo mamaTel patriarqs patron-megobrebs Soris beikeri da genSeri mainc hyavdaT, eseni braizaze did patrons ver Sewvdnen.

sadamde miyavs saqarTvelo `kargi~ patronis Ziebas da misgan daxmarebis molodins, igive guramiSvili ambobs striqonebSi, romelSic naTladaa aRwerili, ra SeiZleba mohyves gare daxmarebaze uazro daimedebas (guramiSvilTan laparakia rusebis imedad yofnaze):

maT miuTxres, Tu uWko varT, naxavT, bolos gamoCndebis;arc Cven vswunobT, kargi aris, Tu eg saqme mal moxdebis~

(igulisxmeba ruseTTan aliansi, dRevandeli

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gagebiT - natoSi gawevrianeba-k.k.). Tumca skeptikosebi samarTlian SiSs gamoTqvavdnen imasTan dakavSirebiT, rom:

”magram mterni Segvityoben, yvela Cvenze warmodgebis,vinem rusni gviSvelian, manam Cveni gardagvxdebis.”

imis miuxedavad, rom es sityvebi 18-e saukunis viTarebas aRweren, maT absoluturi prognozistuli Zala aqvT 21-e saukunis mimarTac. es arcaa gasakviri, vinaidan miTi imas aRgviwers, rac erTxel, samyaros dasabams momxdara, Semdeg periodulad xdeba da momavalSic moxdeba. asevea Cveni politikuri miTologiis SemTxvevaSic. da saqarTvelo marad iqneba krizisSi, vidre Cvens cnobierebaSi `patroni-CaliCis~ sqema iarsebebs. bolos da bolos unda gavigoT, rom msoflio politika gacilebiT rTulia da am sqemiT ar imarTeba. sagareo politika is araa, rom patrons kargad eymo da am ukanasknelma samkvidrod da gansakargavad sakuTarive samSoblo giwyalobos. msoflio politikaSi mimdinare procesebs cota sxvanairad unda analizi.

nebismieri analizi gulisxmobs raRac zogadi tendenciis gamovlenas Tu dafiqsirebas, agreTve calkeuli faqtebis dadgenas da, rac mTavaria, gansazRvras imisa, Tu rogor kavSirSi arian dadgenili zogadi teqndenciebi calkeul faqtebTan. principSi, amgvar midgomaSi Zneli TiTqos araferia, magram arian adamianebi, romlebmac SeiZleba icodnen (xvdebodnen mainc) zogadi tendenciebi, icodnen calkeuli faqtebi, magram ar SeeZloT am ori ramis erTmaneTTan dakavSireba. amas didi germaneli filosofosi kanti `siregvnes~ (germanulad Sesabamisi sityva ar gulisxmobs maincadamainc damakninebel Sinaars. dasabamiseulad `regveni~ qarTuladac `axalgazrdas~, `gamoucdels~ niSnavda, magaliTad ase moixmareboda mefe `bagrat regvenis~ mimarT) uwodebda. mTeli Cveni politikis safuZvelSi swored aseTi siregvne devs.

qarTuli sagareo politika - balTazaris lxini meore ZiriTadi qarTuli politikuri miTi mis SemoqmedTa winaSe arcTu iol problemas ayenebs. amocana TiTqos gasagebia:

unda vipovoT `kargi~ patroni, romelic amavdroulad yvelaze Zlieric unda iyos, raTa saTanadod dasajos yvela, vinc Cven, rogorc am kargi patronis ymebs, gvawyeninebs. magram rogor gavarCioT, romelia yvelaze Zlieri patroni, rom mas veymoT da Cveni erTguleba mivuZRvnaT? es arcTu ioli sakiTxia, romlis gadawyvetisas sruli marcxi iwvnia iseTma araordinalurma politikosma, rogoric vaxtang VI iyo.

asakvirvelia, Cvenma xelisuflebam araferi uwyoda vaxtang VI-is winaSe mdgari sagareo problemebis Sesaxeb. magram sakiTxis aqtualoba igrZnes da pasuxis Zieba, rogorc yovelTvis, iq daiwyes, sadac aramc da aramc ar unda daewyoT. aiRes yvelaze gapiarebuli, oRond sruliad moZvelebuli da yavlgasuli Teoria da gadawyvites misi meSveobiT ganesazRvraT, vin aris yvelaze `magari~ msoflioSi. amis Semdeg Cvens xelisufalT mSvidad unda SesZlebodaT daewyoT `CaliCi~, raTa am yvelaze Zlieris gulis mogebisTvis mieRwiaT. amgvar Teoriul bazisad germanuli klasikuri geopolitikis principebi iqna aRebuli.

ar gegonoT, Cveni sagareo politikis adeptebi an liberaluri fundamentalizmis ideologebi Tavisuflebis institutidan ratcelis, Celenis, haushoferis an makinderis originalSi kiTxviT iwuxebdnen Tavs. am, iseve rogorc sxva sferoebSi miRebuli maTi sabaziso informacia (ise kacs ena ar mogibrundeba samyaroze maT primitul xedvas `sabaziso informacia~ uwodo) ZiriTadad `perestroikis~ da postperestroikis xanis rusuli popularuli gamocemebidan daagroves (inglisuri da kompiuteri maSin saTanado doneze jer kidev `ver ekerkebodaT~).

im dros geopolitika erT-erTi yvelaze popularuli cneba iyo. `geopolitika~ _ postsabWour sivrceSi Znelad moiZebneboda amaze ufro popularuli sityva. am sferoze saubrobda yvela, visac ar ezareboda. ruseTis politikur elitaSi `geopolitikuri~ midgoma, warmatebiT Caenacvla gakotrebul marqsistul-ideologisturs. geopolitika am sityvis garkveuli gagebiT Tavad iqceva ideologiad. rusuli geopolitikis mamis (da SeTavsebiT cnobili grafomanis) duginis mosazrebebi imis Sesaxeb, rom geopolitikosi a priori angaJirebulia `evrazielobiT~ Tu `atlantistobiT~, Zalian waagavs leninis

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Teziss filosofiis klasobrivi bunebis Sesaxeb, romelic, proletariatis beladis azriT, sulac ar gamoricxavs am mecnerebis obieqturobas. Tumca SemTxveviTi ar iyo, rom Tanamedrove politikuri mecnierebis erT-erTi fuZemdebeli hans morgentau geopolitikas axasiaTebda, rogorc `fsevdomecnierebas~. Tu raSi mdgomareobda am mecnierebis fsevdomecnieruli xasiaTi, qvemoT dawvrilebiT vilaparakebT iseve, rogorc imaze, rogor gadatyda Cveni sazogadoebis cnobierebaSi klasikuri geopolitikasaTvis damaxasiaTebeli midgomebi. manamde mokled davaxasiaToT klasikuri geopolitikuri skolis arsi.

klasikuri geopolitikis reduqcionizmi

klasikuri geopolitika reduqcionistuli moZRvreba. filosofiaSi `reduqcionistuli~ ewodeba Teorias, romelic amtkicebs, rom adamianuri moRvaweobis mTeli mravalferovneba saboloo jamSi unaSTod daiyvaneba erT romelime faqtorze. klasikuri geopolitikis mixedviT, nebismieri sfero (politika, ekonomika, xelisuflebis xasiaTi, kulturis tipi, socialuri stratifikacia da msoflaRqmac ki) saboloo jamSi raRac formiT geografiul mdebareobaze daiyvaneba. reduqcionizmi anu akviatebuli mcdeloba, movlenaTa mravalferovneba daiyvanos erT romelime faqtorze - geopolitikis pirveli niSania. reduqcionizmi geopolitikur Teorias Zalian aaxlovebs iseT moZRvrebebTan, rogoricaa marqsizmi da froidizmi.

marqsizms adamianuri yofierebis mTeli mravalferovneba ekonomikur procesebze, ufro zustad warmoebis saSualebebis da warmoebiTi urTierTobebis mimarTebaze dahyavs. politika, istoria, kultura, msoflmxedveloba, yovelive es TiTqmis unaSTod daiyvaneba ekonomikur procesze, upirveles yovlisa Cvens mier gamoyofil aspeqtze. amitom mTeli istoria marqsizmisaTvis aris klasTa brZolis istoria (iseve rogorc geopolitikisaTvis istoria aris `kontinentur~ da `sazRvao~ ZalTa brZolis istoria).

reduqcionizmis meore magaliTad klasikuri fsiqoanalizi SegviZlia davasaxeloT (xazs

vusvavT: laparakia klasikur froidizmze, Torem reduqcionizmi fsiqoanalizis farglebSi jer kidev k. g. iungTan daiZlia), romelsac kacobriobis istoria, politika da kultura libidoze, mis Sekavebebsa da transformaciebze dahyavs. Tumca froidis sasaxelod unda iTqvas, rom mis TeoriaSi ar iyo momentebi, romlebic sxvadasxva gaqanebis vaipolitikosebs saSualebas miscemda fsiqoanalizi politikurad angaJirebul moZRvrebad anu ideologiad eqciaT. am beds marqsizmi da geopolitikuri moZRvreba ver gaeqcnen. es maT TavianT amosaval principebs da daskvnebs unda daabralon da ara raRac SemTxveviT garemoebebs.

klasikuri geopolitika, rogorc substantivisturi moZRvreba

imisaTvis, rom sakiTxis garkveva produqtuli iyos, axlave saWirod mimaCnia ori sabaziso filosofiuri cnebis gansazRvra. esenia substanciis da funqciis cnebebi. axlave vusvam xazs, rom saubari swored safuZvelmdebare, anu iseT cnebebzea, romelTagan gamomdinareobs sxva danarCenebi. es cnebebi ayalibebs (Tanac adamianuri moRvaweobis praqtikulad yvela sferoSi), imas, rasac arsebulisadmi midgomis wesi hqvia da gansazRvravs ama Tu im civilizaciuri erTobis xasiaTs. principSi, substancia da funqcia SegviZlia, ganvixiloT sistemisa da elementis analogiurad.

sistema SeiZleba ganisazRvros, rogorc erTmaneTTan dadebiTi bmiT dakavSirebul elementTa erToblioba. am gagebiT sistemad SeiZleba gaviazroT yvelaferi _ dawyebuli ojaxiT da damTavrebuli mzis sistemiT. im saxes, formas, romliTac elementebi ukavSirdeba erTmaneTs, struqtura ewodeba; anu struqtura aris is saxe, romliTac elementebi ukavSirdeba erTmaneTs, saxe _ Tu rogor `gamoiyureba~ sistema. magram situaciis mTeli pikanturoba imaSi mdgomareobs, rom rac erTi mimarTebiT sistemaa, meore mimarTebiT SeiZleba sistemis elementi iyos. magaliTad samxedro saqmeSi qveiTi batalioni aseulebTan mimarTebaSi sistemaa, magram diviziasTan mimarTebaSi ukve elementia, qveiTi divizia batalionebTan mimarTebaSi sistemaa, magram korpusTan mimarTebaSi elementia, korpusi diviziebTan mimarTebaSi sistemaa, xolo armiasTan mimarTebaSi elementia da a.S.

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es sakiTxi gamowvlilviTi filosofiuri analizis sagnad aristotelesTan xdeba (Tumca am mimarTebiT platonTanac bevri uaRresad sayuradRebo momentia dafiqsirebuli). masTan arsebuli yovelTvis aris ori elementis: formisa da masalis erToblioba. magaliTad: aguri aris gamomwvari Tixa, romelsac garkveuli (aq marTkuTxa) forma saxe aqvs miRebuli. Tixa masalaa, aguroba _ forma. aguroba sistemaa, Tixis marcvlebi _ elementebi, romlebic im formiT arian dalagebuli, aguri rom hqvia. magram viTareba icvleba, Tu aguris kedels aviRebT. aq aguri ukve forma ki ar aris, aramed masalaa. is aris masala, romelic garkveuli saxiT aris dakavSirebuli sxva agurebTan da romelTa erToblioba warmoadgens kedlis formas. Tavis mxriv, kedeli, romelic formaa aguris mimarT, masalaa saxlis mimarT. saxli formaa kedlebis mimarT da masalaa quCis mimarT. quCa formaa saxlis mimarT, magram masalaa qalaqis mimarT da a.S. dausruleblad. raRac `Txam SeWama venaxis~ msgavs raimes viRebT.

funqciurs vuwodeb midgomas, romelic aqcents am mimarTebaTa (forma_masalis) ierarqiaze akeTebs da agurs saboloo jamSi ganixilavs im funqciidan gamomdinare, romelic mas gaaCnia im sistemisaTvis, qalaqi rom hqvia.

magram SeiZleba ganvixiloT sxva midgomac. aguri aviRoT, rogorc aguri da meti araferi; anu ganvixiloT TavisTavad aRebuli aguri sxva agurebTan, kedlebTan, quCebTan da a.S mimarTebis gareSe. ganvixiloT, rogorc raRac erTxel da samudamod mocemuli da dadgenili da ara ise, rodesac aguri Tavis arss, `agurobas~, sxvasTan mimarTebaSi iZens. aseT midgomas substantivisturi SeiZleba davarqvaT. is nivTs erTvarad izolirebulad ganixilavs, sxva nivTebTan funqcionaluri mimarTebis gareSe, rogorc erTxel da samudamod mocemuls.

rasakvirvelia, arsebobis ufleba orive midgomas aqvs. metic, orive sxvadasxva aspeqtiT aSuqebs yovelive arsebuls. substantivisturi midgomisaTvis mTavaria elementi, xolo funqcionaluri midgomisaTvis _ is, Tu ra saxisaa am elementebis mimarTebaTa erToblioba, romelsac struqturas uwodeben. aq saqmis arsis gaxsna musikidan magaliTis moSveliebiT SegviZlia. orkestrSi violinos partia

izolirebulad aviRoT da ganvixiloT, rogorc mxolod violinos partia. magram SegviZlia igive partia ganvixiloT, rogorc im sistemis erT-erTi elementi, orkestri rom hqvia (Tavad orkestri SeiZleba ganvixiloT ufro farTo sistemis elementad, romelsac musika ewodeba).vimeoreb, arsebobis ufleba orive midgomas aqvs, erTi ukeT warmogvidgens Sidaelementur maxasiaTeblebs, vTqvaT, violinos partiis Taviseburebebs, xolo meore _ mis mimarTebebs sxva elementebTan. romel midgomas avirCevT, es gamomdinareobs dasmuli amocanidan (sxvaTa Soris, es midgoma albaT mizansa da amocanazec vrceldeba da is, rac erT momentSi da erTi mimarTebiT amocanaa, sxva dros da sxva mimarTebiT mizani SeiZleba gaxdes da piruku).

klasikuri politikuri da samxedro strategia upiratesobas substantivistur midgomas aniWebda. es ar niSnavs, TiTqos is ar icnobda funqcionaluri midgomis wess.amisaTvis sun-Zisa da makiavelize miTiTebaa sakmarisi. magram klasikur strategiaSi ufro substantivisturi midgoma dominirebda da strategia upiratesad sistemad ganixileboda, romelTan mimarTebaSi samxedro xelovnebis sxva elementebi daqvemdebarebul rols TamaSobda. es elementebi iyo taqtika, brZolis saxeobebi (Seteva, Tavdacva), logistikis organizeba, operaciuli xazebis gansazRvra da a.S.

klauzevicidan moyolebuli naTlad ganisazRvra, rom starategia garda imisa, rom Tavad warmoadgens sistemas, aris sxva, ufro farTo sistemis `politikis~ elementi. magram imis gamo, rom Tavad strategiac garkveuli sistemaa, is erTgvar qvesistemad iqna ganxiluli. mogvianebiT amerikis samoqalaqo omisa da prusiis mier Catarebuli omebis Sedegad gairkva, rom politikis qvesistema, saxelad `omi~, siRrmiseul kavSirSi imyofeba amave sistemis sxva qvesistemebTan, saxeldobr, qvesistema `ekonomikasTan~ da qvesistema `teqnologiasTan~. totalitaruli sistemebis (sabWoTa bolSevizmis, germanuli nacizmis) gaCenis Semdeg naTeli gaxda omis kavSiri sistema politikis qvesistemasTan, saxelad `ideologiasTan~. totalitarul sistemebSi saqme iqamdec ki midioda, rom, rogorc hitleris SemTxvevaSi ideologiuri faqtorebi operatiul gadawyvetilebebzec ki axdendnen gavlenas. magaliTad, stalingradis

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SemTxvevaSi. hitleri nebismieri gziT cdilobda aeRo mowinaaRmdegis saxelobis qalaqi (rasakvirvelia, stalingrads samxedro mniSvnelobac hqonda, magram gravitaciis operatiul centrad is ufro ideologiam aqcia). aseTive akviatebuli ideologizebuli midgomis magaliTia Cveni xelisuflebis survili, parlamentis quTaisSi gadataniT `dasajos~ daumorCilebeli Tbilisi.

meore msoflio omis Semdeg daiwyo `civi omi~, kacobriobis istoriaSi yvelaze didi ideologiuri omi. omi, romelSic samxedro komponenti ideologiisa da politikis instrumentad gamodioda, magram tradiciulis sapirispiro azriT. Tu manamde SeiaraRebuli Zalebis mizani srulmasStabiani samxedro moqmedebebis warmoeba iyo, axla SeiaraRebuli Zalebis, upirveles yovlisa, birTvulis mizani is iyo, rom srulmasStabiani samxedro moqmedebebi Tavidan yofiliyo aridebuli. Tumca `civi omi~, rogorc omebis umravlesoba, erT- erTi mxaris marcxiT damTavrda.

magram axla axali tendencia gamoikveTa. gairkva, rom Tavad sistema `politika~ ar aris sistemaTa ierarqiis umaRles safexurze mdgomi elementi. hanTingtonis naSromis gamosvlis Semdeg gairkva, rom politika ufro farTo sistemis – `civilizaciis~ nawilia. civilizacia SeiZleba ganvmartoT, rogorc im adamianTa zeerovnuli erToba, romelTac msgavsi Sexedulebebi aqvT iseT sakiTxebze, rogorebicaa: sikvdili da sicocxle, adamianis Rirseba, buneba, kultura, qalis roli da fuqncia da a.S. rasakvirvelia, am CamonaTvalSi Sedis politikac da omic. oRond es ar aris is omi, romelsac klasikuri strategia Seiswavlida, an Tugind `civi omi~. is raRac sxvaa, es civilizaciebis omia, romlis drosac erTmaneTs adamianebis mier samyaros aRqma ejaxeba. es civilizaciebis omia da am SemTxvevaSi, klauzevicis perefrazi rom gavakeToT: omi aris civilizaciis tipis gagrZeleba Zalismieri saSualebebiT. magram civilizacia xom substantivisturi ki ara, funqciuri cnebaa?!

Tumca klasikuri geopolitikisaTvis yovelive zemoTqmuli arsebiTi ar aris. klasikuri geopolitika substantivisturi moZRvrebaa, romelic amtkicebs, rom geografiuli mdebareoba erTxel da samudamod gansazRvravs politikas. rom

arseboben `maradiuli~ geografiuli kategoriebi, romelTagan gamomdinare saxelmwifos SeiZleba moiqces `mxolod ase~ da ara sxvanairad. klasikuri geopolitikisaTvis sivrce absoluturia, yovelive sxva - SefardebiTi. imis gamo, rom arsebobs evraziuli `harTlendi~ anu guli, mis makontrolebel politikur Zalas TiTqos mxolod erTnairad SeiZleba moiqces da ara sxvanairad. Sesabamisad, am ZalasTan dapirispirebuli Zalis qcevis stereotipebic identuria. saxelmwifoebi, romlebic arsobrivad Tu substanciurad saxmeleTo anu kontinenturebi arian, ar SeiZleba ar Sevidnen konfliqtSi `sazRvao~ civilizaciebTan. aq arsebiTi ar aris, ratom mohpara es primituli Teoria ruseTis dRevandeli elitis nawilma germanelebs. aseve arsebiTi araa is, Tu rogor moaxerxa `saxmeleTo~ romma germanul-rusuli klasifikaciiT `sazRvao~ karTagenis damarcxeba (ise, hanibalis patronebs ratom CamoerTvaT saxmeleToebis ufleba, veravin xsnis), maSin, roca sazRvao inglisi iolad amarcxebda kontinentur safrangeTsa da espaneTs, xolo `sazRvao~ amerikam daamarcxa kontinentalur kolosi _ ssr kavSiri. aRarafers vityviT `kontinentaluri~ germaniis or marcxze or msoflio omSi.

klasikuri geopolitikis Semdgomi daxasiaTeba aRniSnulis fonzeaqedanve SeiZleba iTqvas, rom Cveni amocanis damakmayofilebeli gadawyveta garkveuli logikuri rigis gavlas moiTxovs, rac sxva cnebebis SemotanasTan erTad, saboloo jamSi, e. w. zogad-Teoriuli principebis ganmartebasTan iqneba dakavSirebuli. pirvel yovlisa is, rom naTlad gaimijnos geopolitikuri doqtrinis ori kategoria: globaluri da regionaluri. geopolitikuri midgomis Tanaxmad, rogoric ar unda iyos globaluri viTareba, ruseTs, Tavisi mdebareobis gamo TiTqos yovelTvis unda hqondes sasicocxlo da strategiuli interesebi samxreT kavkasiaSi anu raRacnairad dauqvemdebaros es regioni Tavis gavlenas.

ragind ucnauradac ar unda JRerdes es, am

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arguments erTnairad iyeneben saakaSvilis momxrenic da misi mowinaaRmdegenic prorusul politikosTa banakidan. saakaSvilistebisTvis es Tezisi indulgenciaa xelisuflebis qmedebebisaTvis. am Tezisidan gamomdinare, TiTqosda ruseTTan omi gardauvali iyo da saakaSvilis politika arafer SuaSia. Tavis mxriv, rusofilebi amtkiceben, rom am geopolitikuri viTarebidan gamomdinare, ruseTi arasodes daTmobs saqarTvelos (is xom samxreT kavkasiis gasaRebia) da amitom yovelnairad unda veferoT mas, uari vTqvaT evroatlantikur struqtuebSi integraciaze, Torem sxvagvarad ruseTi imave geopolitikuri gardauvlobidan gamomdinare, dagvsjis.

am mtkicebis gabaTileba iolad SeiZleba im faqtze miTiTebiT, rom ruseTi maSinac `sjida~ saqarTvelos, rodesac evroatlantikur struqturebSi integraciis idea irakli wereTlis partiis wevrebiT ifargleboda. aseve saakaSvilis momxreT sayuradRebod xazi unda gavusvaT, rom istoriis mTeli gamocdileba gvaCvenebs: ar arseboben gardauvali procesebi. arseboben adamianTa araswori (Cvens SemTxvevaSi, saerTod araadekvaturi) qmedebebi, romlebic raRac procesebs gardauvlad aqceven. magram es arsebiTi ar aris. mTavaria, rom Tezisi geopolitikuri viTarebidan gamomdinare procesebis gardauvlobis Sesaxeb, rbilad rom vTqvaT, saeWvo mecnieruli Rirebulebis mqone mtkicebaa, romelic ioli gasabaTilebelia filosofiuri xasiaTis argumentaciiTac da kacobriobis istoriis calkeul faqtebze miTiTebiTac.

Tumca amiT ar xdeba geopolitikuri midgomis amomwuravi daxasiaTeba. amgvari daxasiaTebisaTvis ramodenime sityviT unda SevexoT am Teoriis istorias. termin `geopolitikas~ saxelmwifos Teoriis Sved specialists rudolf Celens unda vumadlodeT. Tumca isic aRsaniSnavia, rom igi ar SeiZleba geopolitikuri midgomis sulisCamdgmelad CaiTvalos. ukanasknelis saTaveebTan, garkveuli azriT, iseTi cnobili saxelebi, moiazreba, rogoricaa herodote, hipokrate, aristotele, platoni, polibiusi, ciceroni da straboni.

da mainc, antikuri azrovneba Sors idga geografiul da politikur faqtorTa urTierTmimarTebis iseTi ganxilvisa

da aqcentirebisagan, rac `wminda~ geopolitikuri midgomis aucilebeli atributia. am mxriv, ufro meti mizandasaxuloba Semdegi epoqebis niSania. swored amiT gamoirCevian Jan bodeni da Sarl lui monteskie, romlebmac axal droSi erT-erTma pirvelebma mohkides xeli aRniSnuli mimarTebis deskrifcias.

raSi mdgomareobs geopolitikuri universaliebi, e. i. rogoria geopolitikur doqtrinaTa zogad-Sinaarsobrivi elementebi? am kiTxvaze pasuxs Semdegi punqtebis saxiT warmovadgenT:

adamiani homo-spetio aris. e. i. arseba, romlisTvisac misi arsebobis wesis TvalsazrisiT sivrciTi konteqsti fundamenturad gvevlineba (amasTan dakavSirebiT SegviZlia gavixsenoT f. ratcelis Tvalsazrisi, romlis mixedviTac, teritoria ubralod saxelmwifos Zalis erT-erTi atributi ki ar aris, aramed Tavad politikuri Zalaa, an kidev k. Smitis Grossraum-i da k. haushoferis Lebensraum-i).

globaluri istoriuli sivrce heterogenuli bunebis struqturaa da gansxvavebuli istoriul-funqcionaluri parametrebis mqone sivrciTi erTeulebis erTianobas warmoadgens, romlebic __ rogorc sxvadasxva aqtoris dislokaciisa da aqtiurobis sivrceebi __ erTmaneTTan garkveul geopolitikur mimarTebaSi imyofebian;

uzogades klasifikaciiT, globaluri istoriuli sivrce mega-sivrciTi-erTeulebisagan Semdgari totaluri mTelia, romelSic polaruli istoriul-funqcionaluri gansazRvrulobis mqone mega-erTeulebis gverdiT marginaluri sivrciTi erTeulic gamoiyofa.

Cveulebriv geopolitikosebi gamohyofen `RerZul regions~ (Pivot area), romelsac mogvianebiT fergrivma Heartland-i uwoda, Sida sartyels (Inner crescent) da gare sartyels (Outer crescent). es klasifikacia Tavis safuZvelSi eyrdnoba pirveli msoflio omis win arsebul viTarebas. harTlandi tolfasia ruseTis evraziuli nawilisa plus aRmosavleT Turqestani (dRevandeli CineTis sinZian – uigureTis avtonomiuri raioni) da tibeti. msoflio gulze batonoba msoflio batonobis garantiaa. zogi mkvlevaris geopolitikuri radikalizmi

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iqamdec midis, rom cdilobs geopolitikiT axsnas is problemebi, romlebic dRevandel uigureTSi (sxvaTa Soris rusTavelis droindel xataeTSi) da tibetSi arseboben. Tumca naTelia, rom lamaizmis institutis warmoSobas tibetSi da dalai-lamas institutis gansakuTrebuli rolis dafuZnebas XVII saukunis tibetSi iseve mcired avxsniT geopolitikuri realiebiT, rogorc islamuri fundamentalizmis globalur gavrcelebas, romelmac specifikuri formiT uigureTic moicva (sxvaTa Soris, islamis miRebamde uigurebis sarwmunoeba maniqeveloba iyo, rasac agreTve veraviTari geografiuli faqtorebiT ver avxsniT).

klasikuri geopolitikis Sida sartyeli moicavda centralur da samxreT-evropul imperiebs: germanias, avtria-ungreTsa da osmaleTs. gare sartyeli ki anglosaqsonur samyaros, upiratesad britaneTis imperias, agreTve aSS-s. safrangeTs raRac Sualeduri adgili eWira gare da Sua sartyelebs Soris.

gasagebia, rom dRes aseTi klasifikacia mxolod Rimils Tu gamoiwvevs. Tundac imitom, rom masSi veraviTar adgils ver hpoveben iseTi dRevandeli gigantebi, rogorebic indoeTi da CineTi arian. sruliad gaudebaria, romel rgols mivakuTvnoT evrokavSiri, sad midis samxreT-aRmosavleT azia an laTinuri amerika. magram mTavari sxva ramaa. irkveva, rom politikur-geografiuli struqtura globalur doneze SeiZleba sruliad sxvagvarad Camoyalibdes, ara ise, rogorc klasikuri geopolitika miiCnevda gardauvlad da erTaderT SesaZleblad.

`sakuTari~ da `sxvisi~ sivrciTi parametrebi erT-erTi fundamenturi (geopolitikuri) identifikatorebia, romlebic politikur moTamaSeTa istoriul dispoziciasa da aqtiurobas gansazRvraven. isini calsaxad ganapirobeben imas, rom ama Tu im arealisadmi mikuTvnebuli subieqtebi mxolod ase iqcevian da ara sxvanairad.

klasikuri geopolitikisaTvis arsebobs globaluri da lokaluri geopolitikuri identifikatorebi, ris safuZvelzec aqtorTa sxvadasxva `donis~ jgufi gamoiyofa. magaliTad, globalur doneze __ Talasokratiuli anu zRvaTampyrobelebis da Telurokratiuli anu kontinentmeufenis (aseTad rusi geopolitikosebi jiutad agrZeleben CineTis perspeqtiuli umcrosi

partnioris, ruseTis CaTvlas). rogorc globalur, aseve lokalur doneze gamoyofili opoziciuri jgufebi da maTSi Semavali subieqtebi, romlebic Sesabamisi sivrciTi parametrebiT xasiaTdebian, erTmaneTTan garkveul geopolitikur mimarTebaSi imyofebian. gansakuTrebuli polaruli urTierTmimarTebiT xasiaTdebian sazRvao civilizacia da kontinenturi civilizacia, zRvis xalxebi da kontinentis xalxebi. maT Soris iseTive gardauvalia armagedonis tolfasi brZola, rogorc marqsistebisaTvis gadamwyveti Serkineba proletariatsa da burJuazias Soris, an saakaSvilistebisaTvis bolo Serkineba `Carecxilebsa~ da `Camrecxavebs~ Soris.

warmodgenili punqtebi –kidev erTxel gavimeorebT - geopolitikuri midgomisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli zogad-Sinaarsobrivi elementebis CamonaTvalia. abstraqtuli bunebis gamo isini, ra Tqma unda, ver amowuraven ama Tu im doqtrinis konkretul Sinaarss. magram samagierod zust warmodgenas gviqmnian saerTod geopolitikuri midgomisaTvis niSandobliv universalur maxasiaTeblebze, rac savsebiT sakmarisia misi _ e. i. aRniSnuli midgomis _ specifikaSi gasarkvevad da Sesafaseblad.

mainc ra SeiZleba iTqvas ufro konkretulad amasTan dakavSirebiT? albaT, upriania Tavidanve gaesvas xazi saerTod geopolitikuri midgomisaTvis mouSorebel reduqcionizms, romelic geografiuli determinantis gaabsoluturebaSi mdgomareobs. aqve samarTlianoba moiTxovs aRiniSnos, rom calkeul doqtrinebSi fiqsirdeba aRniSnuli radikalizmis `Serbilebisa~ da geografiul determinantTan zogierTi sxva determinantis `gaTanasworebis~ cda, magram miuxedavad amisa, sabolooo jamSi, verc am SemTxvevebSi viRebT principulad gansxvavebul rezultats. sxva sityvebiT, verc isini scdebian zemoT miTiTebuli reduqcionizmis sazRvrebs. am fonze aucilebelia iTqvas, rom Cveni pozicia kidev ufro Sorsmimaval revizias iTvaliswinebs, rac geografiuli faqtorisaTvis fundamenturi determinantis statusis `CamorTmevasa~ da amasTan dakavSirebuli koreqtivebis SetanaSi mdgomareobs. cxadia, sakiTxis ase gadawyvetis viTarebaSi e. w. klasikuri geopolitikuri midgomidan `araferi~ rCeba. metic, SeiZleba gaCndes eWvi: aseT viTarebaSi saerTod aqvs ki

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aq ganviTarebuli msjelobis fonze upriania vikiTxoT: konkretulad ras niSnavs CvenTvis geopolitikuri midgoma? ras iTvaliswinebs igi? am kiTxvaze pasuxi Semdeg saxes miiRebs: geopolitikuri midgoma Tavis TavSi gulisxmobs globaluri politikuri realobis analizis im aspeqts, romelic sivrciT indikatorebzea orientirebuli. e. i. sivrce mis sazRvrebSi adamianis istoriuli yofierebis erT-erT da ara erTaderT konteqstualur gansazRvrulobad warmogvidgeba, romelic Sesabamisad araabsoluturi elementis saxes atarebs. aqedan gamomdinare sruliad cxadia, rom sxva interpretacias iRebs tradiciuli geopolitikuri cnebebi da principebi.

zemoT Tqmulidan gamomdinare calsaxad SeiZleba iTqvas, rom Cveni Tvalsazrisi principulad gansxvavdeba klasikuri geopolitikuri Tvalsazrisebisagan. Sesabamisad, CvenTvis miuRebelia sivrcis `wminda~ geopolitikuri stratifikaciac, romelic reduqcionistuli midgomiT aris nasazrdoebi, radgan sxva Teoriulad sagulisxmo naklovanebebTan erTad istoriulobiTac aris aRbeWdili. adamiani ar aris homo-spatio, visi yofierebac upirveles yovlisa, sivrciTi reliebiTaa gansazRvruli (aramed ase vTqvaT, istoriuli arsebaa, romelic sxvadasxva, maT Soris specifiuri rigis faqtorTa mTeli speqtriTaa determinirebuli (sxvaTa Soris, mTelma meocem da ara mxolod meoce sukunis filosofiam calsaxad aCvena, rom adamianur yofierebaSi droiTi faqtorebi prevalireben sivrciTze. Tumca es aramc da aramc ar niSnavs sivrciTi faqtorebis rolis dakninebas). aseT viTarebaSi ki Teoriulad usazriso da gaumarTlebeli xdeba adamianisa da msoflio-istoriuli sivrcis klasikuri geopolitikuri tipologizaciis nebismieri versia, romelic saboloo jamSi, Talasokratiul da Telulokratiul tipebzea orientirebuli. mkafiod SeiZleba iTqvas, rom msoflio-istoriuli procesis Cveneul panoramaSi adgili ar rCeba amgvari paradigmatuli tipebisaTvis

rasakvirvelia, geografia Tavis gavlenas axdens politikaze. magram politikaze gavlenas, pirvel yovlisa, politika axdens. aq saWiroa ara substancionalisturi, aramed funqcionaluri kategoriebiT operireba. am or midgomas Soris gansxvavebis ilustrireba sakmaod advilia: atlantikis okeane odiTganve gamohyofda inglissa da amerikas.

magram misi funqcionaluri datvirTva sxvadasxva epoqaSi sruliad sxvadasxva iyo. amerikis damoukideblobisTvis omisas atlantika iyo sivrce, sadac ingliselebs unda gadaesrolaT Zalebi ajanyebuli kolonistebis winaaRmdeg. magram pirveli da meore msoflio omebisas atlantika iyo sivrce, sadac yofili kolonistebis STamomavlebs Zalebi undagadmoesrolaT aRmosavleT naxevarsferoSi. unda gadmoesrolad imitom, rom gadaerCinaT yofili metropolia, romelsac odesRac esoden warmatebiT gamoeyvnen. Rrma simbolizmia general perSingis sityvebSi `Cven movediT lafaet~ (perSingma es sityvebi maSin warmoTqva, rodesac amerikuli saeqspedicio korpusi safrangeTSi gadasxda im dros, rodesac frangebi TiTqos ganwirulebi iyvnen ruseTi, omidan gamosvlis gamo). es sityvebi erTnairad iyo gamiznuli rogorc frangebis, ise ingliselebis gasamxneveblad, es ori Zala ki rogorc nebismierma moswavlem (Cveni reformirebuli ganaTlebis sistemis moswavleebi ara myavs mxedvelobaSi) icis, amerikis damoukideblobisaTvis omisas sruliad sxvadasxva poziciaze idgnen...

erTi sityviT, klasikuri geopolitikis momxreebi amtkiceben, rom `sad~ mTlianad, calsaxad da Seuqcevadad gansazRvravs `rodis~-s da `rogor~-s. arada realuri politika am sami sistemis elementebis, qveelementebis da mimarTebebebis erTobaa. am TvalsazrisiT, klasikuri geopolitika arafriT gansxvavdeba marqsizmisgan, romelsac yvelaferi ekonomikur interesze dahyavs da froidizmidan, romelic yovelives saTaves Cvens seqsualuri instinqtebSi xedavs. geopolitikis mixedviT, geografia TavisTavad aris politikis bazisi. amitom ar arsebobs gansxvaveba politikur geografiasa da geopolitikas Soris. TviT im donezec ki, romelzec marqsizmi mijnavda politekonomiasa da ekonomikur politikas. SemTxveviTi srulebiTac ar iyo is, rom geopolitikuri ideologiis erT-erT mTavar naSroms `politikuri geografia~ erqva.

qarTuli istebliSmenti, sazogadoeba da geopolitkuri Teoria

damoukideblobis mopovebis Semdeg samocdaaTwliani ideologiuri wnexis qveS myofi qarTuli sazogadoeba arCevanis winaSe dadga: ra gziT wasuliyo. marqsizmi araTu miuRebeli, aramed saZulveli iyo. deideologizirebuli sazogadoebis idea

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imxanad (wina saukunis 80-90-ian wlebSi) adamianTa umravlesobisaTvis miuRebeli iyo. nacionalisturi ideologia masebis didi nawilis SekveTaze pasuxobda, miT ufro mas Semdeg, rac man saerTo kavkasiuri saxlis idea aitaca (romelic principSi, Tu ar vcdebi, pirvelad sulac `mwvaneebma~ wamoayenes). magram nacionalisturi paradigma, sxvadasxva mizezis gamo, romelTa ganxilva cdeba am statiis CarCoebs, damarcxda. SevardnaZis xelisuflebaSi mosvlis periodSi kvaziinteleqtualur elitaSi (aseTebi ki SevardnaZis ideologiuri dasayrdenebi iyvnen) batondeba geopolitikuri midgoma. amgvar gabatonebis mizezTagan mxolod ramodenimes davasaxeleb:

es adamianebi mijaWvulni iyvnen rusul •sainformacio da saganmanaTleblo sivrceze da iq geopolitikuri ideologiis damkvidrebas ar SeiZleboda maTzec ar moexdina saTanado zegavlena. marTalia, geopolitikuri ideologiidan SevardnaZis kvaziinteleqtualebs da vTqvaT, rus evrazielebs, sapirispiro daskvnebi gamohqondaT, magram, geopolitikuri problematikiT Cveni sazogadoebis daintereseba faqtia. amas Tugind is adasturebs, rom saswrafod iTargmna da, rac mTavaria, sakmaod didi tiraJiT gaiyida rusuli geopolitikuri ideologiis erT-erTi yvelaze odiozuri naSromi, duginis 800 gverdiani `geopolitikis safuZvlebi~.

geopolitikurma ideologiam Cvens •istebliSments misca marTalia uprimitulesi, magram mainc raRac paradigma, romlis meSveobiTac SeiZleboda gaazrebuliyo mimdinare procesebi rogorc globalur, ise regionalur doneze. saqme exeboda am ideologiis mier postulirebul gardauval Setakebas atlantisebs da kontinentalistebs Soris.

geopolitikis im principidan •gamomdinare, rom geografiul mdebareobas gadamwyveti roli eniWeba politikisaTvis da rom am mxriv saqarTvelos unikaluri mdebareoba gaaCnia, moxda postulireba imisa, rom saqarTvelo geopolitikuri brZolebis qartexilTa centSi iqneba; iqneba iq, sadac „sisxliani dgas angelozi“. analitikosTa nawilSi es

SiSs iwvevda, nawilSi aRfrTovanebas. Tumca Teziss, rom saqarTvelos unikaluri geopolitikuri mdebareoba aqvs, romelic mas gaabrwyinebs (umravlesobis azri) an daaqcevs (umciresobis azri) eWqveS ar dgeboda.

amas emateboda gviani komunizmis •xanidan momavali mtkiceba, rom imperializmis, pirvel yovlisa amerikuli imperializmis amocana msoflio energomatareblebze kontrolia. amgvari kontrolisaTvis saqarTvelos mdebareoba TiTqos unikalur Sans iZleva. gamodis, rom Cven unikaluri mdebareoba gvaqvs rogorc geostrategiuli, ise geoekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT. aseT viTarebaSi vin ityoda uars imaze, rom veymeT (ukidures SemTxvevaSi, mapi mainc moecaT). imaze, rom saqarTvelos garda unikaluri geoekonomikuri da geopolitikuri mdebareobisa, unikaluri geocivilizaciuri mdebareoba aqvs - CaliC-patronis koncefciis momxreebma araferi icodnen sakuTari uwignurobis gamo.

gamomdinare patroni-CaliCis •paradigmidan, didi geopolitikuri armagedonis aucileblobidan da saqarTvelos unikaluri geografiuli mdebareobidan, momwifdi idiotizmiT gamorCeuli daskvna: saqarTvelo unda eymos geopolitikuri armagedonis wevrTagan romelimes. ymobis safasurad miiRos xelSeuxeblobis gujari da iseTi investiciebi, romlebic qarTvelebs mdidrebad gvaqcevs ise, rom arafers gavakeTebT. es amave dros gulisxmobda agreTve am yovelives Semoqmedi elitis samaradJamo yofnas saqarTvelos xelisuflebaSi.

esaa da es mTeli sagareo politika, romlis gatarebasac saqarTvelo fafxurobs bolo oci wlis ganmavlobaSi. danarCeni detalebia: rom SevardnaZem patroni ver Camogviyvana (rogorc erTxel uTxres parlamentSi). rom Cvens istebliSments (rogorc SevardnaZis, ise saakaSvilisa, romelic sawyis etapze arc gansxvavdeboda SevardnaZis istebliSmentisgan), SesaZloa fsoni rusebze daedo, Tavad rusebis qmedeba rom ara. magram rusebis mier SevardnaZis miuReblobam, amerikis STambeWdavma samxedro warmatebebma da buSis mier Cveni demokratiis Suqurad

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damo

ukid

ebel eqsper

tT

a klu

bi

gamocxadebam ganapiroba, rom elitam arCevani `atlantistebze~ gaakeTa.

politikosebsa da sazogadoebaSi gabatonda azri, rom gadamwyveti geopolitikuri brZolis win saqarTvelo unda ymoboda uZlieres Zalas, romelic Cven Cveni mdebareobis gamo dagvicavda da yvelafriT uzrunvelgvyofda. am ymobis aqtis Camdeni elita ki samaradisod (`Tavisuflebis institutis~ mesveurTa gamoTvlebiT, minimum 80 weli) darCeboda xelisuflebaSi. ai Cveni xelisuflebis sagareo politikis mTeli `filosofia~.

am `filosofiis~ kavSiri agvistos katastrofasTan

aqedan gamomdinare, ukve Sori aRaraa imis axsna, Tu ram ganapiroba 2008 wlis agvistos avantura. rasakvirvelia, Tavisi roli Seasrules ruseTis agentebma; oqruaSvil-kezeraSvilis mier qarTuli armiis daqcevam, yvela aqedan gamomdinare SedegiT; samTavrobo Jurnalistebis uRirsma qmedebebma, romlebic mosaxleobas usindisod atyuebdnen, TiTqos natos Zalebi dRe-dReze dagvexmarebodnen. politikuri istebliSmentis araadekvaturi, mxdali da moRalateobrivi qmedebebi am faqtorebs Soris, cxadia, pirvel adgilzea, albaT, iseve, rogorc gavleniani neokonebis mxridan garkveuli waqezeba Tu miniSneba. magram mTavari isev es ubeduri sagareo politikuri paradigma iyo. am paradigmis Tanaxmad, Cven xom dasavleTs veymeT (dasavleTis nawili ki ar vxdebodiT, aramed swored ymebad vudgebodiT). Cveni geostrategiuli da geoekonomikuri mdebareobidan gamomdinare, dasavleTs cota xeli xom unda waekra mainc maSin, rodesac `atlantistebis~ mTavar mters - rusebs SevebiT. migvatoves! gemebiT pampersebi gamogvigzavnes!

ras niSnavs es: rom dasavleTi moRalatea? aramc da aramc. mxolod imas, rom mTeli es bodva `Talasokratebis~ da `Telurokratebis~ samkvdro-sasicocxlo brZolaze, geografiuli faqtoris gadamwyvetobaze, Cvens unikalur mdebareobaze, romlis gamoc dasavleTi gviymobs da MAP-s mainc mogvaniWebs, rom is Cveni provocirebis SemTxvevaSic ki dagvicavs ruseTisgan, da rom ruseTi dasavleTis da Cveni mdebareobis SiSiT oms ver gagvibedavs - ara mxolod ramodenime

arcTu jansaR tvinSi arsebobda. ubedureba is iyo, rom am bodviT ideebs saqarTvelos sazogadoebis didi nawili iziarebda. nawils moswonda Talasokrat-TelurokratTa maradiuli brZolis Teoria (romelzec mxolod gakvriT gaegona raime), sxvebs ar moswonda. magram Tavad TeoriaSi gadmocemul bodvas sazogadoebis didi nawili realobad miiCnevda. borotebis saTavec amaSi iyo.

gamosavlis ZiebaSi

axla miraJi daimsxvra. gairkva, rom msoflioSi geografiuli faqtori gadamwyveti ar aris, iseve rogorc samxedro (Tumca, umniSvnelo arc erTia da arc meore). gairkva, rom araviTari samkvdro - sasicocxlo brZola Telurokratebsa da Talasokratebs Soris ar mimdinareobs (amerika-CineTis strategiuli partniorobis da amerika-ruseTis `perezagruzkis~ Semdeg amaze laparakic sasaciloa). gairkva, rom Cveni geografiuli mdebareoba mniSvnelovania, magram TavisTavad arafris garanti ar aris. imis garantic ki ar aris, rom am umniSvnelovanesi geopolitikuri mdebareobis mqone qveynis prezidents xeli CamoarTvan da oriod adamianuri sityva mainc uTxran (investiciebze laparaki aRarcaa). gairkva, rom Cven gvWirdeba sagareo politika, romelsac es reJimi verasodes Seqmnis. is Cvenma sazogadoebam unda Seqmnas, sazogadoebam, romelic im iluziebidan gamoTavisufldeba, zemoT rom mogiTxreT.

rogor unda moxdes es, sxva saubris Temaa. aq mxolod oriod momentze unda gavusvaT xazi: saerTaSoriso sistemis analizisas aRarasdros aRar unda amovideT reduqcionizmidan, gansakuTrebiT geopolitikuridan. aRar unda vamtkicoT, rom geografiuli mdebareobis gamo saxelmwifoebi ganwirulni arian iyvnen samaradiso mtrebi da moyvareebi (SesaZloa ramodenime saukunis win es marTalic iyo, magram dRes aramc da aramc). Cven samyaros mravalferovneba unda miviRoT ise, rogorc is aris da miznad davisaxoT masSi Rirseuli adgilis povna, raSic geostrategiul da geoekonomikur mdgomareobaze metad SeiZleba geocivilizaciuri mdgomareoba gamogvadges.

Cven uari unda vTqvaT substantivistur midgomaze, romlis Tanaxmadac, Cveni mdebareoba, Cveni yovelgvari Zalisxmevis gareSe, TavisTavad gaxdeba Cveni usafrTxoebis da keTildReobis wyaro.

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substantivisturi midgoma Canacvlebul unda iqnes funqciuriT, romlis Tanaxmadac sagareo politikis amocana unda iyos ara is, rom Cveni mdebareobis gamoyenebiT vinmes veymoT, aramed is, rom Tanmimdevruli, mtkice qmedebebiT, Tavdauzogavi SromiT viqceT im sistemis organul nawilad (da ara ymad, rogorc es warmogvidgenia), dasavleTi rom hqvia. da kidev erTi: bolos da bolos unda moviSaloT infantilizmi sagareo politikaSi da samudamod daviviwyoT „CaliCi-patronis“ politika.