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On Game Shows and Nuclear TalksZurich, 25.01.17
Dr. Philip Grech
This slide deck is a short version of a presentation given on the occasion of the CIPS Event “Game Theory for Enhanced Negotiations”
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Chair of Negotiation and Conflict Management
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What is Game Theory?
Game theory is the mathematical theory of interactive decision-making: it models conflict and cooperation between rational decision-makers
Applications in- Board Games- Business- Politics- Evolution- …
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An Example
Nick
Abraham
Split Steal
Split 500, 500 0, 1’000
Steal 1’000, 0 0, 0
Not stable: Abraham has an incentive to switch
Stable: Neither Nick nor Abraham have an incentive to switch
NASH Equilibria
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What would you do?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0qjK3TWZE8
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Image: Dave Edmonds (CC BY-NC-SA)
P5+1 Iran
Another Example
Long-lasting deadlock
It is gratefully acknowledged that the following slides could be based on a slide deck by M. Ambühl and T. Langenegger
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flexible
flexible
inflexible
inflexible
Iran
USA stable:
Nash
No negotiation“lose-lose” situation
Both inflexible
Payoff USA
Payoff Iran
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No negotiation
More sanctions(4 -> 80)
More centrifuges (200 -> 20’000)
Photo: Office of the Presidency of f Iran Photo: White House Photo (CC BY)
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External factors changed the game
Photo: White House Photo (CC BY) Photo: White House Photo (CC BY)
Photo: Wikipedia/ José Cruz (CC BY) Photo: Wikipedia/ Mojtaba Salimi (CC BY-SA)
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flexible
flexible
inflexible
inflexible
Payoff USA
Payoff Iran
Iran
USA
stableNash
Images: Wikimedia (CC BY)
Effect of sanctions
Concerns about nuclear program
Regional Power:Understandingdesirable
Involvement of Iran useful
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Joint Comprehensive Plan of ActionVienna, 14 July 2015
Photo: U.S. Mission Geneva (CC BY-ND)
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Thank you!