On Swedish Energy ScenariosExperiences, Methodologies, Reflections and some new ideas

Per Lundqvist, Professor, KTH, Stockholm

Scope of presentation

• Energy scenario 2020+ An on-going project (selecting methodologies, identifying key issues)

• Swedish Energy Scenarios – 1970 to 2014 (overview)• Brief comment on scenario methodologies• Identified key elements of the 2020+ Scenario• Scenario Classification and characterization (what makes a

scenario successful?)• New concepts: Negotiated modelling and Negotiated

Simulation • Six case studies for Sweden + Scotland in the M.Sc. Course

Energy, Models and scenarios spring 2014.

Creating an energy system scenario is:

• A system modelling process – the process needs skilled and open minded governance!

• A method to investigate todays system as well• An opportunity to share experiences • A learning opportunity• An opportunity to argue from different viewpoints• Always cross-disciplinary – seek broad competence

and respect each others disciplines!

“…Plans are nothing – planning is everything…” [Dwight D. Eisenhower]

An ongoing project within Swedish Energy Agency (aiming at issues after 2020…)

The aim of the 2020+ scenario project is to:• Identify critical competence gaps in the organization,• Improve organizations own capability to perform long range

scenarios in parallel with the short term prognosis duties,• Harmonize the view on sustainability issues and trade-offs

(what does ”A sustainable energy system” mean – really?)• Enhance future ”buyers competence” for scenario studies (for

years done for the agency by external consultants or researchers)

Likely initially unintended outcomes: • Identify critical research needs – allocate funding• Support Swedish government in policy making + ????

Scenario Limits to Growth

Energikommissionen - Energihush

ållning

Sol eller Uran?

År 1971 1972 1973 1974     1977 1978

Worlds Viewfactors

Arbetsgrupp under ledning av statsrådet Alva Myrdal

tillsattes

FN:s första internationella

klimatkonferens i Stockholm

Oljekris & Sekretariatet

för Framtidsstudier

bildades

International Energy Agency

(IEA) bildades

OljekrisKänrkrafts

olycka i Three Mile

Island

Scenario

Kaijser et al. - Att ändra

riktning: villkor för ny

energiteknik

År 1980           1986 1987 1988

World view Factors

Folkomröstning om kärnkraft

Kärnkraftsolycka i

Tjernobyl

Bruntland-kommissio

nens rapport

publiceras

International Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) bildades

Ongoing mapping of influential scenarios

Scenario

Steen et al. - Energi

åt kommuner

na! & Shell 1992-2020

Meyer et al - Sustainable energy scenarios for the Scandinavian countries

Byggforskningsrådet

- Energianvändning

vägval för framtiden

Peter Steen - Färder i

framtiden

Christian Azar & Kristian

Lindgren - Energiläget år 2050

Klimatkommittén -

Förslag till Svensk

Klimatstrategi (SOU 2000:23)

År   1990   1992 1993      1996 1997 1998 1999

World view factors

IPCC publicerar sin första rapport, First Assessemt Report

FN:s klimatkonferens i Rio de Janeiro

Sverige ratificerade FN:s klimatkonvention

Kyotoprotokollet

Scenario

IVA - Energin - mot en ny era

Jochem et al. - Steps

towards a

sustainable

development (2kS)

Per Florén - What if-

scenarier & Shell global scenarios to

2050

Oljekommissionen & E.on - MOSES

Naturvårdsverket

- Tvågradsmålet i sikte?

Höjer et al. &McKinsey & Company

Svensk Energi/ Elforsk Profu

Ecofys Energy

Scenario &IVL –

Scenarios for 2050

SEI - Energy for a Shared

Development

Agenda

Wangel et al. - Goal-based

socio-technical scenarios

Chmutina & Goddier -

Alternative future energy

pathways

År   2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

World view factors

Klimatkonferens i Köpenha

mn, Kärnkraftsolycka

i Fukushi

ma

Klimatkonferens i

Cancun

Klimatkonferens i i Durban

What will happen? What can happen? What should be done to make it happen?

”what If”

”Prognosis”

strategic scenarios

Preserving scenarios

Transforming (back-

casting)

External scenarios

Predictive S Explorarative S Normative S

Scenarios

Process scheme for the study 2020+

1. Identifying critical parts of the system• Issues• Stakeholders• Conflicts• Definitions

(lack)• Knowledge

gaps

Setting up next stage: adaption

2. Methodo-logical issues• Back

casting?• Strategic

scenarios• What - if?

Setting up next stage: adaption

3. Negotiated modelling:• Choice of

modelling software

• Project team• Reference

group• stakeholders

4. Negotiated simulation:• Scenario

communi-cation

• Stakeholder interaction

Identified critical elements 2020+ for Sweden

1) How can energy use be minimized in various sectors (housing, industry, transport)? From lifestyle changes to new efficient technologies. Rebound effects?2) How can energy supply in the transport/mobility sector be transformed to biofuels or electricity? 3) How can integrated infrastructure and better planning contribute to lower energy use in the transport sector? 4) What are the alternatives for heating systems in buildings? (District Heating, Heat Pumps, Solar Energy etc.)5) How does increased energy efficiency of buildings relate to social sustainability and preserved cultural values during renovation and refurbishment`? 6) How can a gradually diminishing heating demand be utilized? 7) What are the perspectives on waste incineration and biogas production in a future sustainable energy system with more recycling?

Identifying critical scenario elements 2

8) What are the alternatives to fossil fuels in the industrial sector (Steel for example, CCS, CCU)? 9) What different views are there on the sustainability of an massive outtake of bioenergy/biofuels? I.e. the role of biofuels in a future energy system? Export of bioenergy?10) Which different views are there on the best production chains and technologies for the utilization of bioenergy? 11) What views are there on how to best utilize a finite biomass resource (energy, food, plastics, building material)? 12) What is the role of “traditional” power sources in the future energy system (nuclear energy, hydropower, etc.?) 13) How should the electric power system be adapted to handle more renewable electricity? Extended transmission capacity? More regulative power? Storage? User flexibility? Dynamic Pricing (i.e. Smart Grid) 14) What are the sustainability perspectives on a future large scale electricity export from Sweden? (cables?) 15) In what way must the Swedish energy system adapt to climate change? Increased cooling demand? Hydropower output and security? Increased biomass growth rates?   

Early factors that influence scenario success

Aim(s)

Target group

Authors

triggers

World Wiew

Descition makers

Timing

Initiator

Overarching goal

This is part of a on-going thesis project (part of 2020+) to charcterize and map energy scenarios(work in progress…)

The scenario making process is dependendant on aim(s) and authors

Aim(s) Type of scenario

ArchitectureMethod Presentation

Target group

AuthorsDescition makers

Communicating the scenario determines success

ArchitectureMethod

Presentation

Target group

Other recievers

SuccessSuccessfactors

Giving the entire map (model)

Aim(s) Type of scenario

ArchitectureMethod Presentation

Target group

Other recievers

SuccessSuccessfactors

Authors

Triggers

World View

Decision makers

Timing

Initiator

Overarchinggoal

New ideas (scenarios as learning process)

Two relatively new concepts are proposed (potentially in a two step process):

• Negotiated modelling• Negotiated Simulation (sometimes referred to as mediated simulation)

Negotiated modelling takes in the stakeholders in the modelling process from the beginning. What matters? What to include? System boundaries? Technologies to include? Etc.

Negotiated Simulation allows for interaction for target setting, choice of technologies, cross-sectorial trade-offs. Stakeholders cannot change the model but need to understand and accept it

Some stakeholders may take part in step 1 or 2 only.

Conceptual Model

Block Model

Sector Parameter Indicators Primary Energy National mix

Renewable energy share Biogas (Y/N)

KWh KW (Installed cap)

Buildings Types Residential (3 types) Commercial (Offices, Shopping malls) Community (Schools, sports, hospital)

Area (sq. m.) Percentage

Transport Modes Cars Car sharing Bus/tram Bikes

Km/liter/day Percentage share Fuel types Kg CO2/km

Waste Types Burnable Organic Recyclable Landfill Hazardous

Waste production per cap. Percentage share

Water Hot water Drinking water General use water

Liters/day/cap. Hot water requirement

Policies Building regulations 1 star 2 star 3 star

Users Types Environmentally aware Moderate High consumption

Input Param

eters

Six comparative case studies

”Topic” Sweden Scotland

1. What if we have: Heat Pumps with smart grid capability

How can smart heat pumps in Single family dwellings contribute to balance fluctuating electricity production

Can heat pumps in district heating nets increase potential for renewable electricity (IPRE)

2. What if we have: Massive expansion of Electric cars

How should an electricity supplier work to utilize a big electric car fleet

How can electric Car-Pools stabilize the grid and IPRE

3. What if we have: Prosumers in the future energy system

How can prosumers fit in the future Swe. energy system?

How can prosumers fit in the future Sco. energy system?

Strategic scenarios (business development focus) in a ”what-if” prognosis context

Thank you for the attention!

Qestions?

Per Lundqvist perlund@kth.se

www.energy.kth.se070 636 33 00