on the way to low carbon economy - set | poČetna · 1 prof. dr. sc. slavko krajcar, unizg the role...
TRANSCRIPT
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Prof. dr. sc. Slavko Krajcar, UNIZG
The Role of Electricity System on the Way
to Low Carbon Economy
Do not forget: „Today’s energy transition is not plug-and-play, it is civilization reboot”
Trebinje, 5.3.2020.
SET 2020
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S vama danas želim podijeliti moje
promišljanje o sljedećim temama …
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Gdje smo sada na putu prema +1,5C?
Nekoliko činjenica o dosadašnjem EES-u
Korak prema EES-u sutrašnjice
Elektrifikacija + decentralizacija + digitalizacija
1
2
3
4
3
Energetska demokracija QSQN 5
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Od kuda zapravo krećemo prema željenom
+1,5 C odnosno prema net-zero energetici?
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Stvarno je,
zar ne?
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Published by the US
National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
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We have to change our thinking and doing …
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Climate change … nova paradigma energetike …
97%
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8 Globalno zagrijavanje relativno na 1850.-1900. i procjena budućnosti (Izvješće IPCC
2018.)
http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf
Globalno zagrijavanje relativno prema 1850.-1900. (oC)
Promatrane mjesečne globalne
temperature površine Zemlje
Procijenjeno antropogeno
zagrijavanje do sada i
vjerojatan raspon
Promatrane mjesečne globalne
temperature na površini Zemlje
Vjerojatan raspon prema modelu za razne izabrane putove:
Globalne emisije CO2 dostižu net-zero u 2055. i
neto non-CO2 emisije forsiraju nakon 2030 (sivo)
Značajnije CO2 smanjenje (plavo) rezultira s većom
vjerojatnošću postizanja 1,5 C
Bez redukcije non-CO2 emisija (ljubičasto) rezultira s
manjom vjerojatnošću postizanja 1,5 C
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9 Smanjenje emisija vremenski i kumulativno?
http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf
Milijarde tona CO2 na godinu (GtCO2/god) Milijarde tona CO2 (GtCO2)
Smanjenje CO2
emisija od 2020.
nadalje da se
postigne net-zero u
Kumulativno CO2
emisije na putu prema
net-zero u
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Pogledajmo okruženje iliti zbivanja
u EU!
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Zabluda ili šansa?
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1306673/?utm_source=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/1306673
Europe has become a test-bed for replacing
coal with wind & solar power, and the fast
results should give reassurance to other
countries that they can rapidly
phase out coal too.”
Dave Jones Electricity Analyst, Sandbag
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Današnji (ekonomski) EKOSUSTAV?
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13 Nove pozicije dionika (eko)sustava …
Homo Economicus (racionalan ekonomski čovjek) vs aktivni građanin
Ekonomija nultih marginalnih troškova vs tarife
Kupnja vs ekonomiji dijeljenja
Cijena eksternalija, zaštita okoliša, klimatske promjene, itd. …
nova „domaća zadaća”
Nacionalno vs internacionalizacija energijskih (energetskih) sustava
Održivost, konkurentnost i sigurnost kao politika razvoja …
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14 Sve će biti … ekonomija dijeljenja?
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Back 2 energy
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Energijski odnosi jučer i danas u EU
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1306673/?utm_source=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/1306673
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17 OIE udjelu proizvodnji električne energije u EU (2019.)
https://sandbag.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Sandbag-European-Power-Sector-Review-2019.pdf
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… kretalo se sporo, ali u jasnom
smjeru … https://sandbag.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Sandbag-European-Power-Sector-Review-2019.pdf
https://sandbag.org.uk/project/power-2019/
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19 Vjetrena i sunčana proizvodnja premašila onu iz ugljena EU u 2019.
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20 Kretanje proizvodnog miksa 2010. do 1019. u EU
+
-
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21 Instalirana snaga vjetrenih i sunčanih elektrana u EU
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Izlazak iz pogona elektrana na ugljen (Coal TPP phase out)
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Gdje je svijet u energetskom investiranju danas?
Samo za ….
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24 Investicije u nove kapacitete, prema tipu u 2017. (Svijet)
Siurce: https://cleanenergysolutions.org/sites/default/files/documents/180605_gsr_2018_presentation_webinar_rad.pdf
77.4
% s
u n
on
CO
2
inv
est
icije
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Investitori i kapital?
Europska investicijska banka (EIB) najavila je u studenom ‘19
da će od 2022. godine
prestati financirati nove projekte fosilnih goriva,
uključivo i plin.
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Uz pomoć Pariza i „Zelenog dogovora” do cilja
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Elektroenergetski sustav jest i bit će
okosnica energetske infrastrukture …
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Povijest promjena u elektroenergetskom sustavu …
By prof. Goran Štrbac, Imperial College London na by myself
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1. korak: To make it work (1890. – 1920.)
1st Power System in the World
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2. korak: To make it big and affordable (1920.– 1990.)
http://www.pmaps2016.org/Dr.-Goran-Andersson.pdf
Three Gergoes 22.500 MW
Itaipu 14.000 MW O
ve
r o
f 1 T
W
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3. korak: To make it sustainable, market based and still affordable (1990. do danas)
2016
Hidro
(uklj. hidro kao OIE)
Nuklearna
Fosilni izvori
OIE
(bez hidro kao OIE)
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Ako smo odlučili da možemo i
hoćemo, put je jasan i to prema …
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4. korak: To make it environmental friendly, sustainable, market based,
and still affordable ( … sutra) … i
https://docstore.entsoe.eu/Documents/Publications/Statistics/electricity_in_europe/entsoe_electricity_in_europe_2016_web.pdf
od …
… do 100%
Udio potrošnje pokrivene s OIE u 2016.
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Od baznih i vršnih elektrana prema VOIE i spremanju energije
https://medium.com/@CarbonNegative/the-new-energy-paradigm-and-beating-climate-change-in-1-page-b51f8c7589eb
Spremanje energije
Bazne elektrane
Varijabilni OIE
Dispečibilni OIE
Vršne
elektrane
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… no border in the future …
Izmjena energije u Europi 2017.
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A kako dalje?
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What is Your choice?
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EU politika se odlučila!
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Od 13.11.2018. Europski parlament prihvatio novi okvir Energy Union-a
CO2 >-40% OIE 32%* Energetska učinkovitost
32,5%* Interkonekcija 15%
CO2 -20% OIE 20% Energetska učinkovitost 20% Interkonekcija 10%
20
20
2
030
Od kuda se kreće i kamo želimo?
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Zeleni dogovor za “zdravu” budućnost …
https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_hr
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Možemo li nastaviti taj niz?
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A elektroenergetski sustav?
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Nova uloga elektroenergetskog sustava je stvarnost …
https://renewables-grid.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Files_RGI/RGI_Publications/RGI_European_Grid_Perspectives_2018.pdf
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Što je to novo? Sve je novo! https://renewables-grid.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/Files_RGI/RGI_Publications/RGI_European_Grid_Perspectives_2018.pdf
Promjena politika Tehnološki napredak
Decentralizacija Elektrifikacija (EV)
Smanjenje troškova
Promjene u
proizvodnom
miksu
Utjecaj na
operatora
mreže
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Elektroenergetski (energetski odn. energijski ) sustavi budućnosti
Source: ETP Smart Grids (2006): Vision and Strategy for Europe’s Electricity Networks of the Future
Centralizirana vs distribuiranoj proizvodnji
Obnovljivi izvori (VRES) vs OIE i pohrana
energije (engl. energy storage)
Suproizvodnja topline i električne energije
(CHP) vs višenamjenskim energijskim
sustavima (P2X – Power to X)
Suživot Cyber i Physical sustava postat će
stvarnost
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Electrification & Decentralisation & Digitalisation
Source: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Electricity_2017.pdf
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47 Napredne mrežne tehnologije događat će se po S krivulji
SAD kućanstva %
Vrijeme da tehnologija dosegne 80% penetracije
Prekretna točka?
Napredne (smart)
mrežne
tehnologije
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48 Budući (elektro)energetski sustav će imati p(r)otrošača kao aktivnog (su)dionika
P2P transakcije
Potrošač u budućem energetskom sustavu
Koristeći mnoge napredne
tehnologije i usluge potrošač
će proizvoditi, trošiti,
pohranjivati i prodavati EE
Potrošač u budućem energetskom sustavu
Automatizirana tehnologija
I analitika utjecat će na
potrošnju i doprinosit će
novim uslugama potrošaču
Potrošač s Distribuiranom Proizvodnjom i pohranom
Napredna brojila i ostala digitalna infrastruktura
Automatizirana analitika i komunikacijska infrastruktura
Priključeni napredni uređaji i novi servisi
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49 Trendovi u energetskoj (grid) transformaciji (tranziciji)
Ključna tehnologija za dugoročne ciljeve smanjenja CO2, ali bit će
I relevantni distribuirani izvori
Tehnologija koja čini kupce aktivnim dionikom sustava, ali i
zahtijeva značajnu koordinaciju
Tehnologija koja omogućava otvoreni, u realnom vremenu automatiziranu komunikaciju i
upravljanje sustavom
Ključne tehnologije:
Električna vozila, EV2 grid/home,
napredno punjenje. toplinske pumpe, P2X
Ključne tehnologije: Energetska učinkovitost,
FN, distribuirana Pohrana, mikro mreže,
Odgovor na potražnju (DRM)
Ključne tehnologije: Mrežne tehnologije (napredno mjerenje,
daljinsko upravljanje i
automatizacija, napredni
senzori)
I nakon mjerenja (sakupljanje i optimizacija,
napredni naprave i uređaji,
IoT)
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50 1st Elektrifikacija transporta (engl. Electrification)
Tehnologija električnih vozila (EV) brzo se razvijala tijekom posljednjih deset godina:
Domet se poboljšao s manje od 150 kilometara na više od 500 km, čime se približava dometu motora s unutarnjim sagorijevanjem (ICE).
Cijena baterija pala je s više od 1.000 USD po kW.h u 2010. na ispod 200 USD u 2017., značajno snižavajući troškove EV-ova i omogućivši niže-cjenovnim modelima da nađu tržišnu nišu
Rezultat je toga da danas na tržištu imamo preko 3.000.000 EV-a
1,3 milijarde automobila, kamiona i autobusa u 2016. godini; +80 milijuna novih automobila godišnje.
https://www.iea.org/gevo2018/
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51 2nd Digitalizacija (engl. Digitalisation)
Digitalne tehnologije sve više omogućavaju uređajima u elektroenergetskom sustavu da komuniciraju i pružaju podatke korisne za potrošače (kupce), ali i za upravljanje mrežom.
Pametna brojila, novi napredni i IoT senzori, daljinsko upravljanje te digitalne platforme koje se fokusiraju na optimizaciju i(napredno) sakupljanje podataka, omogućuju rad mreže i povezanih resursa u realnom vremenu, ali i prikupljanje podatak za poboljšanje usluge opskrbe električnom energijom
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52 3rd Decentralizacija (engl. Decentralisation)
Distribuirana proizvodnja
iz OIE – primarno FN
Uređaji koji pospremaju električnu energiju lokalno
za korištenje u vršnim periodima i kao
backup
Bilo koja usluga ili uređaj koji daje istu uslugu
uz smanjenu potrošnju
električne energije
Tehnologija koja omogućava upravljanje
potrošnjom za vrijeme
vršnog opterećenja i/ili perioda visokih cijena
Reducira vršno opterećenje
Reducira ukupnu potražnju
Ujednačava satno opterećenje
Reducira proizvo. ostalih izvora
Dnevno opterećenje (GW)
Distribuirana proizvodnja (DG)
Distribuirana posprema (DS)
Energetska učinkovitost (EE)
Odgovor na potražnju (DRM)
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53
Smart (napredno) okruženje već je danas stvarnost …
Promjene su toliko velike da nam treba rječnik pojmova da možemo razgovarati s razumijevanjem?
https://www.slideshare.net/prayukth1/smart-cities-2020
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54
Postoje li barijere?
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55
Na putu prema +1,5C znači izabrati put prema 100% OIE
Barriers to implementing the renewable energy plan are
seen to be "primarily social and political, not
technological or economic".
M. Z. Jacobson (University of Stanford)
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56
Jesmo li spremni na nečinjenje?
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57
Čineći ništa stvari neće ostati iste.
Čineći ništa problem će postati veći.
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58
… ali ne zaboraviti … promjene nisu obveza
samo struke i politike …
… već svih
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59
THE END
Energy democracy …
merges the technological energy transition with a
strengthening of democracy and public participation
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60
Q&A