One last negative ad

• Rated most effective of 2008

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxqjAejRF94

Voter Turnout

• Who votes, who doesn’t?• Why?• Why a decline?• Is there a decline?• What proposals to increase turnout?

Voter Turnout in US

• Is there a turnout problem?• In US

• about 50-55% vote in presidential elections– up in 2004 % 2008 (60%)

• about 30% vote in congressional elections• Washington state above the national average

Voter Turnout

• In the US• a steady decline (maybe)• turnout 10% lower 2000 than 1960• turnout much lower now than 1900

– why ??

• today, a lower % of eligible voters participate– farmore eligible voters now

Turnout Trend 1948 - 2000

• High rates 1952 - 1968

• Decline post 1972

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

M. McDonald data

Turnout Trend through 2008

• Large change in VAP vs. VEP turnout

• Since 1980

• Pool of eligible voters smaller vs. voting age population

M. McDonald data

Voter Turnout

• 1896 90% drop to 62% in 1904– voter registration laws– Jim Crow laws

• 1916 61% drop to 42% in 1920– suffrage to women– size of eligible electorate doubled

• 1936 59% drop to 51% in 1948– WWII

• 1968 60% drop to 52% 1972– suffrage granted to 18 y/olds

Voter Turnout in US

• 1960 = 63% in pres (47% in 1962)• 1964 = 62% in pres (48% in 1966)• 1968 = 61% in pres (47% in 1970)• 1984 = 54% in pres (36% in 1986)• 1988 = 50% in pres (36% in 1990)• 1996 = 49% in pres (36% in 1998)• 2000 = 51% in pres (34% in 2002)

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline since 1890s?• Old numbers from a different context

– high mobilization• labor intensive parties

– limited pool of eligible voters– fraud– more mobilization then vs. now?

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline since 1960s?• Demise of parties

– campaigns now capital intensive (ads)– less direct contacts w/ voters– candidate centered politics– “party building” efforts (soft money) for

GOTV had little effect

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline?• Demise of competition

– Fewer US House races competitive now vs. 1960s

• even with demise of one-party south– Fewer state legislative seats competitive– Campaign activity concentrated in rare,

competitive districts (and states)

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline?• Demise of Competition• Effects of competition

– 10% more competitive presidential race in state = 1% more turnout

• ie: Ohio (2%) vs (22%) = 2% more– 2 initiatives = 1% more– Senate race, Gov race...

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline?• Increase in 2004 & 2008• Why; stakes higher?

– some new issue?– candidate effects?

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline?• Regulatory barriers

– 30 day advance registration– vote only on day of election– must vote at specific location– limits on use of mail, absentee ballots– Prohibition on felons voting

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline• Regulator barriers

– What effects of Election Day Registration (EDR)?

• Seven states• 4.5% increase in presidential elections• 2.0% increase in midterm

Voter Turnout in US

• Election Day Registration – Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana,

New Hampshire, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming (ND doesn’t require registration)

– Bill in WA (SB 6778)• 2008 10 days before election• 2009 5 days before• 2010 day of election in WA

Voter Turnout in US

• Election Day Registration– Why bother?

• makes voting more convenient– Who will take advantage?

• ???• ???

Voter Turnout in US

• Election Day Registration– Proponents:

• Democratic Party– Opponents:

• County Auditors• Bureaucratic nightmare

– requires more staff– vote provisional ballot?– check if registered/voted in other county

Voter Turnout

• Felon disenfranchisement– Two states do not ban from voting (Maine

and Vermont)– Some states restore after release /

probation (ex Felons)– Some states make ban permanent (unless

govt. approves individual’s restoration)

Voter Turnout

• Felon Laws– Adoption corresponds with extension of

rights to Black Americans– Before 1860, 12 of 21 states w/ laws– By 1890s, 38 of 45 had laws

• another spike in adoption 1960s

Voter Turnout

• Effects of Felon laws– There might not be a decline in turnout– Levels of criminal punishment in US way,

way up– More felons than ever (Why??)

• 1.4% of Voting age pop by 2000 • was .5% before 1982

– 8% of US Voting age population by 2000• up from 2% in 1966

Voter Turnout in the US

• Why a decline• Regulatory Barriers

– Not a factor growing over time– Easier to register now, easier to vote by

mail– EDR explains variation in an election, not

since 1960.

Voter Turnout in US

• Maybe no decline?• Yes, lower 1972 than 1948 - 1968• Decline mostly outside of south• Low turnout rate of young (post 1972)

accounts for 1/4 of decline• VAP vs. VEP....

Turnout by Age

• Not quite linear

• Young voters lowest turnout

• Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008

charles franklin data

Turnout by Age

• Youngest cohort largest segment of the electorate

• Greatest under-representation in voting

Turnout by Age

• Under-representation?• Youth vote by party

– 2000 51% Dem– 2004 54% Dem– 2008 66% Dem

Voter Turnout

• So why don’t young people vote?– efficacy– life experiences re: politics– campaigns don’t care about them?

• MTV ‘Rock to Vote’ a flop?• youth vote way up in place where competitive

races (stakes are higher)• youth vote 10% nationally in 2004

Voter Turnout

• So, who votes?– See Dalton, Chpt. 3

• Education• Age (old people rule)

– Cohort and life cycle effects

• Partisans (not independents)• Income (see ‘Big Tilt’)• Efficacy

– OK, so what drives efficacy

Voter Turnout

• When & Why do they vote?• Regular voters

– older people and well educated

• Peripheral voters– younger people and less-educated

Voter turnout

• Competitive elections mobilize • larger effect on young & less educated• Presidential race 2004

– person living in uncompetitive state w/ 10th grade ed. had .46 prob. of voting

– person in Ohio w/ 10th grade ed .55 prob.

Voter Turnout

• Midterm election (2002)– 33 y/o person in state w/ no US Senate

race = .37 prob. of voting– 33 y/o in state w/ most competitive Senate

race .77 prob. of voting

– for 62 y.o., high prob. of voting anyway

Voter Turnout in US

• What difference would it make if turnout was higher?– Composition of electorate change?

• EDR, Vote by Mail, etc. seem to increase turnout but not change electorate

• Competitive elections seem to increase turnout of everyone

– greater effect on young, less educated

Voter Turnout in US

• What happens if higher turnout – and low participating groups show up?

• Young people• Less affluent• Ex-felons

Voter Turnout

• Uggen & Manza– Because felons are drawn from ranks of

poor and racial minorities, laws take votes from Dems.

– Estimate that 2000 Pres. election would have been reversed

– Estimate that Dems would have controlled US Senate after 1984 if not for these laws

• Thus changed composition of US Courts

Young voters nominated Obama

• Young voters (under 30 in 2004)– Born post 1975 = 60% D, 30% R– Born 1943 - 58 = 44% D, 46% R

• 2008 Primaries– Ds NH 18-24 60% Obama, 22% HRC– Ds NH over 65 32% Obama, 48% HRC– Ds FL 18-24 49% Obama, 39% HRC– Ds FL over 65 24% Obama, 59% HRC– Ds IA 17 - 29 57% Obama, 11% HRC– Ds IA over 65 18% Obama, 45% HRC

Voter Turnout

• Dem primaries: Obama won where youth turnout reduced age gap

– 28% over 65 in FL, 5 % under 25– 13% over 65 in NH, 11% under 25– 25% over 65 in IA, 22% under 27– 26% over 60 in MI, 8% under 25