one percent flood levels in new york city: land use, land value, and demographic implications
DESCRIPTION
An demographic, land use and land value exploration of the updated one percent flood levels for New York City.TRANSCRIPT
Andy Yan
One Percent Flood Levels in New York CityLand Use, Land Value, and Demographic Implications
New York CityA History of the Land
Based upon August 2013 1% Flood FEMA Flood Elevations (Zone AE, AO, and VE), this study combines spatial datasets from:
• NYC Open Data• The City of New York Planning Department
• Citywide Administrative Districts• Land Use Zoning• Primary Land Use Tax Lot Output (PLUTO)
• The City of New York Department of Finance• FY 2014 Final Assessment Roll
• Federal Government• 2010 Census Block Groups
• 2012 Census Estimates for Total Population• 2010 US Census Summary File One
• Note: The estimates and maps in this document are for a high level discussion
Study Methodology and Data Sources
Source: NYC OpenData
New York CityToday
Total Land Mass: 304 Square Miles
New York City100 Year Flood Plain ScenarioFEMA Base Flood Elevation
Total Affected Land Mass: 47 Square Milesor 16 percent of Total City Land Mass
Source: NYC OpenData
Land Area Under1% Base Flood Elevation
New York CityWhat does 47 square miles look like?
36 Central Parks (1.3 sq miles)About 1 City of San Francisco
(49.9 sq miles)
Source: Google Maps
New York City by BoroughToday
Total Land Area (in square miles):
BoroughTotal Land Area
% of Total Land Area
Bronx 43 14%Brooklyn 70 23%Manhattan 23 8%Queens 109 36%Staten Island 58 19%Total 303 100%
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City by Borough1 Percent Flood Elevation ScenarioFEMA Base Flood Elevation
Borough
Area (in Square Miles)
Area under Flood Elevation
% of Total Land Mass
Staten Island 58 11 19.5%Queens 109 17 15.8%Brooklyn 70 11 16.3%Manhattan 23 3 14.0%Bronx 43 4 9.9%Total 303 47 15.7%
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City by Dominant ZoningToday
Type of Dominant Land Use Zoning
% of Land Mass
Battery Park City 0.0%
Commercial 4.8%
Manufacturing 14.1%
Park/Recreational 13.4%
Residential 67.7%
Grand Total 100.0%
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City by General Land Use ZoningToday
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City by General Land Use ZoningUnder 1% Flood Elevation
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City by ZoningUnder 1% Flood Elevation
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City by General Land Use ZoningArea Under 1% Flood Elevation by Total Zoning Percentage
Note: There is a slight (~1%) data variation in land massbetween Zoning and Land Mass data layersSource: NYC OpenData
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total
Area Under a 1% Floodplain
New York City by General Land Use ZoningArea Under 1% Flood Elevation by Square Feet
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000 Area Under a 1% Floodplain
Note: There is a slight (~1%) data variation in land massbetween Zoning and Land Mass data layersSource: NYC OpenData
General Land Use (in Square feet)Area Under a 1%
Flood Elevation Total %Large Open Amusement Parks 1,717,679 1,863,201 92%
Waterfront Recreational Activities 9,927,306 18,569,273 54%Light and Heavy Industrial Areas 219,266,535 413,720,947 53%Park 314,966,666 1,095,637,163 29%Battery Park City 1,041,830 3,945,625 26%Manufacturing with 1 or 2 story warehouses characterized by loading bays 115,859,696 764,622,857 15%
Bridging Commercial and Manufacturing Uses 11,878,955 101,772,574 12%One and Two Family Houses 375,105,007 3,458,333,644 11%High-Bulk Commercial Uses Requiring a Central Location 9,431,704 87,373,608 11%
Regional Commercial Centers 14,629,831 142,373,433 10%
Lower-Density Residence Districts 56,915,927 753,243,056 8%
Central Commercial District 2,717,653 36,540,297 7%
High Density Residential 2,008,334 28,313,991 7%
Moderate- and higher-density residence districts 85,735,882 1,410,707,934 6%
Commercial Districts (Predominant Residential) 1,660,534 29,483,626 6%Total* 1,222,863,540 8,346,501,231 14.7%
New York City by General Land Use ZoningArea Under 1% Flood Elevation by Square Footage
Note: There is a slight (~1%) data variation in land massbetween Zoning and Land Mass data layersSource: NYC OpenData
Source: NYC PLUTO
• Number of Properties: 64,600 or 7.5% of all properties in the City of New York• Number of Housing Units: 325,000 units or 9% of total City Stock
New York City PropertiesUnder 1% Flood Elevation
Pre-1
800
1801
-190
0
1901
-192
0
1921
-194
5
1946
-197
5
1975
-200
0
2001
-201
3
Data
Unava
liable
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
85 1,191
7,333
15,532
20,666
7,080
4,678
8,793
Buildings in Flood Elevation by Year Built
New York City Individual LandmarksUnder 1% Flood Elevation
Lower Manhattan And NortheasternBrooklyn Inset
• 8 percent of Designated Individual Landmarks
Source: NYC PLUTO
Source: NYC Pluto, NYTimes
Full Value of all Properties in New York City: $1 trillionFull Value of Properties under a 1% Flood Elevation: $111 billionNYC Climate Adaptation Plan Estimated Costs: $20 billion
New York City Property ValuesUnder 1% Flood Elevation
Source: 2010 US Census with 2012 Population Projections
2012 Total Population of New York City: 8.3 million
2012 Total Population living in an 1% Flood Zone in New York City: 1.3 million
23% of Total Population Living under the Flood Elevation is Hispanic vs 18% of Total NYC
60% of Total Households Living under the Flood Elevation are renters vs 47% of Total NYC
New York City PopulationUnder 1% Flood Elevation
Legend
2012 Total Population by Census Block0 - 1,000
1,001 - 2,000
2,001 - 2,500
2,501 - 5,000
5,001 - 11,095
Source: New York City PopulationProjections by Age/Sex & Borough Briefing Booklet, 2006
Gehry Towers76 stories, 903 apartments
At 1,000,000 new residents~438 towers
At 800,000 new residents~263 towers
97 Orchard Street6 stories, 20 apartments
At 1,000,000 new residents~19,608 buildings
At 800,000 new residents~15,686 buildings
More People on Less LandBy 2030, New York City is projected to grow by 1,000,000 people
Source: PlanNYC. Coastal Protection, A Stronger, More Resilient New York, p.45
2050: 72 square miles of New York City is in a 100 year floodplain
1983: 33 square miles of New York City Is in a 100 year floodplain
New York CityFloodplains in the Future
New York City1% Floodplains in the Future2020s
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City1% Floodplains in the Future2050s
Source: NYC OpenData
New York City1% Floodplains in the Future2080s
Source: NYC OpenData
Planning Resilience in New York CityCommissioners’ Plan of 1811