online dating: two decades of a revolution in mating, and its
TRANSCRIPT
Online Dating: Two Decades of a Revolution in Mating, and its
Consequences
Reuben (Jack) Thomas
The City College of New York
Traditional Dating as Matching Through Social Structure
Introductions Institutions Public
Dating as a Search Problem
Sampling Online Daters
• Website-Specific Samples OKTrends
Hitsch et al (2010) Robnett & Feliciano (2011)
• Volunteer Panels E-Rewards Harris Interactive
• Random Samples from the Whole Population
Pew NORC\GSS GfK\KN
How Couples Meet & Stay Together Survey Data
Michael Rosenfeld & Reuben Thomas 2009
Nationally representative sample of over 3,000 couples, with oversample of same-sex couples.
Follow up surveys in 2010 and 2011
http://data.stanford.edu/hcmst
How 2009 Couples Met
Couples who met in the 2000s
A Revolution Without Consequences?
No more nor less couples than before
Online-met couples: don’t breakup more nor less aren’t more nor less satisfied aren’t more nor less interracial\ethnic aren’t more nor less inter-social-class
Hetero Couple Rate is Very Stable
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1995 2002 2007
Partnerships
Marriages
Cohab+Marriages
No Satisfaction Difference
Self-Reported Satisfaction (scale from 1 to 5):
All Couples 4.47
Online-Met 4.51 (not signif. different)
Church-Met 4.67*** (significantly more)
School-Met 4.59** (significantly more)
No Longevity Difference
Breakup Odds-Ratio over 2 years:
Online-met vs Others 1/1
(no difference)
Met-thru-Friends 1.65/1* vs Others
(over 50% more likely to breakup)
Mostly, Online-met Couples aren’t different pairings
Odds Ratios that Online-Met Couples are:
Different Race .82 (not signif.)
Different Education .98 (not signif.)
Different Moth. Ed. 1.01 (not signif.)
Different Religions 1.43* (significant)
Different Age (4yrs) .67 (not signif.)
Segregation: By Preference, By Place, By Interface
The Community-less-ness of Online dating
End
Examples of OkTrend Uncertainty
• Is there a positive correlation among men between age and desire for rough sex, or do very different populations of old vs young men use Okcupid?
• Does Oktrends show that women become more confident as they age, or do they show that their website oversamples confident older women, but gets a broader range of younger women?