online weather tools and decision making mark schilling cambridge, vermont

Online Weather Tools and Online Weather Tools and Decision MakingDecision Making

Mark SchillingMark SchillingCambridge, VermontCambridge, Vermont

Today’s PresentationToday’s PresentationCLAS - WXCLAS - WX

Online at Online at

www.claswx.comwww.claswx.com

Three TopicsThree Topics

• Online Weather Tools

• The Missing Weather Products

• Weather Decision Making

General Aviation Pilot’s Guide to Preflight Weather

Planning, Weather Self-Briefings, and Weather

Decision Making

www.faa.safety.govwww.faa.safety.gov

PDF Document LinkPDF Document Link

Weather RequirementWeather Requirement

Sec. 91.103 - Preflight action.Sec. 91.103 - Preflight action. Each pilot in command shall, before Each pilot in command shall, before

beginning a flight, become familiar with all beginning a flight, become familiar with all available information concerning that flight. available information concerning that flight.

This information must include -- This information must include -- (a) For a flight under IFR or a flight not in the (a) For a flight under IFR or a flight not in the

vicinity of an airport, weather reports and vicinity of an airport, weather reports and forecasts, ………forecasts, ………

How to Obtain a Good How to Obtain a Good Weather BriefingWeather Briefing

www.faa.safety.govwww.faa.safety.govPDF Document LinkPDF Document Link

Online Weather ToolsOnline Weather Tools

• Availability

• Accuracy

• Accountability

• Accessibility

AvailabilityAvailability

Hundred of sources (each with it’s Hundred of sources (each with it’s own web address)own web address)


Internet Services

• NWS

• NOAA

• DUATS

• Commercial Paid Services (AOPA)*

• Commercial Free Services (ads)

• Blastvalve Weather


PDA / Cell Services

• DUATS (free)

• Blastvalve (free)

• Commercial Paid Services (Pilot My-Cast)

• Commercial Free Services (ads)

Blastvalve Weather for your Blastvalve Weather for your PDAPDA

AccuracyAccuracy

Frequent updates allow for better Frequent updates allow for better accuracy in changing conditionsaccuracy in changing conditions

AccuracyAccuracy

• DUATS data source is exactly the same as Flight Service briefing. Only the interpretation is changed.

• Most other online services use the same commercial sources.

• IMPORTANT! Except for DUATS, Make sure pages are refreshed. Check the date and time.

AccountabilityAccountability(from: The General Aviation Pilot’ Guide …..)(from: The General Aviation Pilot’ Guide …..)

Direct User Access Terminal System (DUATS). Get a printed version of the FSS briefing package by obtaining a standard briefing for your route on DUATS. … this

resource provides weather information in an FAA-approved format and records the

transaction as an official weather briefing.

AccountabilityAccountability(from: The General Aviation Pilot’ Guide …..)(from: The General Aviation Pilot’ Guide …..)

You might want to print out selected portions of the DUATS computer briefing for closer

study and easy reference when you speak to a Flight Service briefer.

AccountabilityAccountability

• DUATS Flight Service reports are documented with a unique number for each briefing. (Jot it down)

• Printouts of other data is a good idea to CYA

AccessibilityAccessibility

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClihttp://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Waterbury&stack.php?CityName=Waterbury&state=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.5te=CT&site=OKX&textField1=41.5584&textField2=-73.0374&e=0584&textField2=-73.0374&e=0

Or….Or….


www.claswx.comwww.claswx.comA website of weather product links A website of weather product links

for CLAS membersfor CLAS members

The Missing Weather The Missing Weather ProductsProducts

Hint: They don’t come from Flight Hint: They don’t come from Flight ServiceService

Analysis of Weather SystemsAnalysis of Weather Systems

• Synoptic Scale – big picture

• Mesoscale – our local weather

• Storm Scale - thunderstorms

• Microscale – dust devils and thermals

• Misoscale – inside storms (good luck!)

Synoptic Scale Synoptic Scale MeteorologyMeteorology

A horizontal length scale of the order of 1000 A horizontal length scale of the order of 1000 kilometres (about 620 miles) or more . Most kilometres (about 620 miles) or more . Most

high and low pressure areas seen on weather high and low pressure areas seen on weather maps are synoptic-scale systems.maps are synoptic-scale systems.

PRODUCT: Weather SynopsisPRODUCT: Weather Synopsis

Storm Scale Meteorology*Storm Scale Meteorology*

A scale of sizes of weather systems on the A scale of sizes of weather systems on the order of individual thunderstorms. order of individual thunderstorms.

PRODUCT: RadarPRODUCT: Radar

Microscale Meteorology *Microscale Meteorology *

Atmospheric phenomena about 1 km or less; features Atmospheric phenomena about 1 km or less; features generally too small to be depicted on a weather map. generally too small to be depicted on a weather map.

These include small and generally fleeting cloud These include small and generally fleeting cloud "puffs" and other small cloud features. Microscale "puffs" and other small cloud features. Microscale

meteorology controls the most important mixing and meteorology controls the most important mixing and dilution processes in the atmosphere.dilution processes in the atmosphere.

PRODUCT: Visual Observation and Common SensePRODUCT: Visual Observation and Common Sense

Misoscale MeteorologyMisoscale Meteorology

Paraglider Ewa Wisnerska was caught in a Paraglider Ewa Wisnerska was caught in a thunderstorm while training for the Paragliding thunderstorm while training for the Paragliding

World Championships near Tamworth, World Championships near Tamworth, Australia. As two storm cells merged, an Australia. As two storm cells merged, an updraft sucked Wisnerska to 32,612 feet updraft sucked Wisnerska to 32,612 feet

above sea level.above sea level.

Mesoscale MeteorologyMesoscale Meteorology

Weather systems smaller than synoptic scale Weather systems smaller than synoptic scale systems but larger than microscale and systems but larger than microscale and

storm-scale cumulus systems. Horizontal storm-scale cumulus systems. Horizontal dimensions generally range from around 5 dimensions generally range from around 5 kilometers to several hundred kilometers. kilometers to several hundred kilometers.

Examples of mesoscale weather systems are Examples of mesoscale weather systems are sea breezes, squall lines, rising thermals or sea breezes, squall lines, rising thermals or

acceleration through a narrow mountain pass.acceleration through a narrow mountain pass.PRODUCT: Forecasts???PRODUCT: Forecasts???

PROBLEM:PROBLEM: Mesoscale weather Mesoscale weather phenomena are small, and often phenomena are small, and often

quick to develop and change.quick to develop and change.

• Area Forecasts (TAF) are issued every six hours and amended only with a substantial change in overall conditions.

• Winds Aloft Forecasts (WA) are issued only twice daily.

• Surface Observations (SA) are exactly that.

NEED:NEED: An operational weather An operational weather prediction system to serve users prediction system to serve users

needing needing frequently updatedfrequently updated short- short-range weather forecasts, including range weather forecasts, including

those in the those in the aviationaviation community community and and severe weathersevere weather forecasting forecasting

community. community.

Rapid Update CycleRapid Update Cycle

High-frequency (hourly) short-range High-frequency (hourly) short-range weather model forecasts (out to 12+ h) in weather model forecasts (out to 12+ h) in support of aviation and other mesoscale support of aviation and other mesoscale

weather forecast users weather forecast users

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/

RUC – Balloonists Wind RUC – Balloonists Wind ForecastForecast

www.ryancarlton.comwww.ryancarlton.com

GOOD NEWS:GOOD NEWS: Highly Accurate – Updates Highly Accurate – Updates

hourly - Selectable to multiple hourly - Selectable to multiple local reporting stationslocal reporting stations

CT-11 MA-33CT-11 MA-33

BAD NEWS:BAD NEWS: Private enterprise with little or Private enterprise with little or no funding. Downtimes can no funding. Downtimes can

be extensivebe extensive

InspirationInspiration

• Penny Christy

• Andre Charpentier

PROBLEM:PROBLEM: Mesoscale weather Mesoscale weather phenomena are small, and often phenomena are small, and often

quick to develop and change.quick to develop and change.

•Area Forecasts (TAF) are issued every six hours and amended only with a substantial change in overall conditions. •Winds Aloft Forecasts (WA) are issued only twice daily.•Surface Observations (SA) are exactly that.

NEED:NEED: Current wind reporting Current wind reporting information which covers all flight information which covers all flight levels above the surface, tracks levels above the surface, tracks changes in speed and direction, changes in speed and direction,

and is frequently updated.and is frequently updated.

Velocity Azimuth DisplayVelocity Azimuth Display

A product of A product of WSR 88-DWSR 88-D

Doppler RadarDoppler Radar

Velocity Azimuth DisplayVelocity Azimuth DisplayA Doppler radar product which shows the radar A Doppler radar product which shows the radar

derived wind speeds at various heights. This radar derived wind speeds at various heights. This radar product shows the wind speeds from 2,000 to product shows the wind speeds from 2,000 to 55,000 feet above the ground. VAD and EVAD 55,000 feet above the ground. VAD and EVAD

(Extended VAD) are methods of (Extended VAD) are methods of guessingguessing the large the large scale two-dimensional winds from one-dimensional scale two-dimensional winds from one-dimensional

radial velocity data.radial velocity data.

2 10 14 99 0 15 0 -999.0002 10 14 99 0 15 0 -999.000 Alt U V U_quality V_qualityAlt U V U_quality V_quality

15.0000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.00015.0000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 25.0000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.00025.0000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000 -999.000

35.0000 -4.42783 -2.86866 0.0117679 0.010052635.0000 -4.42783 -2.86866 0.0117679 0.0100526 45.0000 -4.74168 -3.25964 0.00723661 0.0062784445.0000 -4.74168 -3.25964 0.00723661 0.00627844 55.0000 -4.97028 -3.56065 0.00523892 0.0046194355.0000 -4.97028 -3.56065 0.00523892 0.00461943 65.0000 -5.15894 -3.84263 0.00447775 0.0039839865.0000 -5.15894 -3.84263 0.00447775 0.00398398 75.0000 -5.33852 -4.13267 0.00435625 0.0038782175.0000 -5.33852 -4.13267 0.00435625 0.00387821 85.0000 -5.50235 -4.41604 0.00418550 0.0037285685.0000 -5.50235 -4.41604 0.00418550 0.00372856 95.0000 -5.66219 -4.66417 0.00409816 0.0036558595.0000 -5.66219 -4.66417 0.00409816 0.00365585 105.000 -5.82211 -4.86708 0.00393825 0.00352045105.000 -5.82211 -4.86708 0.00393825 0.00352045 115.000 -5.96991 -5.01418 0.00377675 0.00338457115.000 -5.96991 -5.01418 0.00377675 0.00338457 125.000 -6.07160 -5.12148 0.00368898 0.00331722125.000 -6.07160 -5.12148 0.00368898 0.00331722 135.000 -6.08357 -5.22248 0.00375266 0.00339252135.000 -6.08357 -5.22248 0.00375266 0.00339252 145.000 -6.04707 -5.29926 0.00405005 0.00367672145.000 -6.04707 -5.29926 0.00405005 0.00367672 155.000 -6.05737 -5.33868 0.00404991 0.00368617155.000 -6.05737 -5.33868 0.00404991 0.00368617 165.000 -6.08062 -5.35491 0.00421411 0.00384434165.000 -6.08062 -5.35491 0.00421411 0.00384434 175.000 -6.05076 -5.37504 0.00451533 0.00412299175.000 -6.05076 -5.37504 0.00451533 0.00412299 185.000 -6.03161 -5.37407 0.00456651 0.00417622185.000 -6.03161 -5.37407 0.00456651 0.00417622 195.000 -6.01119 -5.36359 0.00461893 0.00423726195.000 -6.01119 -5.36359 0.00461893 0.00423726 205.000 -5.96387 -5.36568 0.00459473 0.00422362205.000 -5.96387 -5.36568 0.00459473 0.00422362 215.000 -5.93641 -5.34472 0.00462578 0.00426286215.000 -5.93641 -5.34472 0.00462578 0.00426286 225.000 -5.91761 -5.30915 0.00473928 0.00438076225.000 -5.91761 -5.30915 0.00473928 0.00438076 235.000 -5.86892 -5.30064 0.00477900 0.00442306235.000 -5.86892 -5.30064 0.00477900 0.00442306 245.000 -5.83777 -5.28342 0.00494448 0.00457834245.000 -5.83777 -5.28342 0.00494448 0.00457834 255.000 -5.82343 -5.25181 0.00514618 0.00477130255.000 -5.82343 -5.25181 0.00514618 0.00477130 265.000 -5.77302 -5.24365 0.00522665 0.00484109265.000 -5.77302 -5.24365 0.00522665 0.00484109 275.000 -5.73986 -5.22315 0.00550960 0.00510070275.000 -5.73986 -5.22315 0.00550960 0.00510070 285.000 -5.72165 -5.19037 0.00594406 0.00548418285.000 -5.72165 -5.19037 0.00594406 0.00548418 295.000 -5.66493 -5.19647 0.00631900 0.00580289295.000 -5.66493 -5.19647 0.00631900 0.00580289 305.000 -5.63705 -5.18998 0.00669260 0.00611943305.000 -5.63705 -5.18998 0.00669260 0.00611943 315.000 -5.63018 -5.16959 0.00729033 0.00666555315.000 -5.63018 -5.16959 0.00729033 0.00666555 325.000 -5.54537 -5.20357 0.00753580 0.00687291325.000 -5.54537 -5.20357 0.00753580 0.00687291 335.000 -5.46571 -5.22570 0.00786145 0.00715213335.000 -5.46571 -5.22570 0.00786145 0.00715213 345.000 -5.42398 -5.21837 0.00834880 0.00759911345.000 -5.42398 -5.21837 0.00834880 0.00759911

VAD Wind ProfileVAD Wind ProfileA radar plot of horizontal winds, derived from VAD A radar plot of horizontal winds, derived from VAD

data, as a function of height above a Doppler Radar. data, as a function of height above a Doppler Radar. This display is useful for observing local changes in This display is useful for observing local changes in

vertical wind shear, such as backing of low-level vertical wind shear, such as backing of low-level winds, increases in speed shear, and development winds, increases in speed shear, and development or evolution of nearby jet streams (including low-or evolution of nearby jet streams (including low-

level jets). level jets).

Select type of NIDS product:

Base Reflectivity(0.5)

Base Reflectivity(1.45-1.5)



Composite Reflectivity

248 NM Base Reflectivity(0.5)

Echo Tops

Base Radial Velocity(0.5)

Base Radial Velocity(1.45-1.5)

Storm Rel. Mean Radial Vel(0.5)

Storm Rel. Mean Radial Vel(1.45-1.5)



Vertically Integrated Liquid

One-Hour Precipitation

Storm Total Precipitation

Velocity Azimuth Display(VAD) Winds

Select type of NIDS output:

Single Image

2-Hour GIF Loop

2-Hour JAVA Loop

GOOD NEWS:GOOD NEWS: Fairly Accurate – Good reporting of Fairly Accurate – Good reporting of

short-term changes. Refreshes every short-term changes. Refreshes every 10 minutes10 minutes

BAD NEWS:BAD NEWS: Connecticut and Massachusetts in Connecticut and Massachusetts in

“Bermuda Triangle” of 3 closest “Bermuda Triangle” of 3 closest reporting stations – Clear, dry air reporting stations – Clear, dry air

yields no readingsyields no readings


www.claswx.comwww.claswx.com

A website of weather product links A website of weather product links for CLAS membersfor CLAS members

Weather Decision Weather Decision MakingMaking

Beth Miller’s QuestionBeth Miller’s Question

What is going on at these What is going on at these balloon rallies?balloon rallies?

Beth Miller’s QuestionBeth Miller’s Question

Incidents at balloon events Incidents at balloon events are increasing at an are increasing at an alarming rate. Why?alarming rate. Why?

Why are incidents increasing at Why are incidents increasing at events? Beth thought she would events? Beth thought she would

hear:hear:

• Pressure from event

• Peer pressure

• Fear of De-Invitation

• Financial

Why are incidents increasing at Why are incidents increasing at events? Beth listened and heard:events? Beth listened and heard:

• Pilot base getting older

• Older means more confident

• Less focused as age advances

• Slower recovery from partying

• Students in 50s. Can now afford the sport

Why are incidents increasing at Why are incidents increasing at events? Beth listened and heard:events? Beth listened and heard:

• Congestion - Expressway vs. Local

• The terrain has changed

• Less experienced crew (pickup crew)

• Wind Factor

DiscussionDiscussion

Why are we flying in Why are we flying in weather we would never weather we would never

consider at home?consider at home?

Microscale Meteorology *Microscale Meteorology *

Atmospheric phenomena about 1 km or less; Atmospheric phenomena about 1 km or less;

OR LACK THEREOF. OR LACK THEREOF. (Sucker Holes)(Sucker Holes)

Microscale meteorology controls the most important Microscale meteorology controls the most important mixing and dilution processes in the atmosphere.mixing and dilution processes in the atmosphere.

PRODUCT: Visual Observation and Common SensePRODUCT: Visual Observation and Common Sense

Pilot Decision Making by Pilot Decision Making by CoolerCooler

Albuquerque 2008Albuquerque 2008

““Normally, your first decision is your Normally, your first decision is your best decision.”best decision.” - Beth Miller- Beth Miller

When does the pilot say When does the pilot say NO?NO?

When does the event When does the event close the field?close the field?

““But the weatherman said…”But the weatherman said…”

Solberg 2007Solberg 2007

ThunderstormsThunderstorms(Storm Scale)(Storm Scale)

Outflow BoundariesOutflow Boundaries(Mesoscale)(Mesoscale)

Look to the sky – is it telling you Look to the sky – is it telling you something?something?

When does the pilot say When does the pilot say NO?NO?

When does the event When does the event close the field?close the field?

Why are these Why are these questions not mutually questions not mutually

exclusive??exclusive??

Ballooning Ballooning vs. FASTCAR vs. FASTCAR

Advance the cause of Advance the cause of Ballooning as a safe activityBallooning as a safe activity

vs. vs. Sanction and marketing of Sanction and marketing of

one of North America’s one of North America’s premier sports.premier sports.

First, Do no harmFirst, Do no harm vs. vs.

Balls to the WallBalls to the Wall

FASTCARFASTCAR

• It’s all about the money

• The only people you hurt are drivers

• The only property you damage is cars

None of these apply to None of these apply to Ballooning!Ballooning!

““In order for this sport to survive, In order for this sport to survive, we are going to rethink the we are going to rethink the

decisions we are making . We decisions we are making . We don’t want to kill this beautiful sport”don’t want to kill this beautiful sport”

-Beth Miller-Beth Miller

Earl MacPhersonEarl MacPherson1941-20081941-2008

online weather tools and decision making mark schilling cambridge, vermont

Documents

weather synopsis slide

weather information

weather reports

weather maps

weather requirement

pda slide

radar slide

vermont slide