onr muri: nexgenetsci hastily formed networks in complex humanitarian disasters brian steckler...
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ONR MURI: NexGeNetSci
Hastily Formed Networks in Complex Humanitarian Disasters
Brian StecklerHastily Formed Networks Research Group Director
Cebrowski InstituteNaval Postgraduate School, Monterey CA
First Year Review, August 27, 2009
With Dave Alderson
Theory DataAnalysis
Numerical Experiments
LabExperiments
FieldExercises
Real-WorldOperations
• First principles• Rigorous math• Algorithms• Proofs
• Correct statistics• Only as good
as underlying data
• Simulation• Synthetic,
clean data
• Stylized• Controlled• Clean,
real-world data
• Semi-Controlled•Messy,
real-world data
• Unpredictable• After action
reports in lieu of data
StecklerHastily Formed Networks
Why study disasters and disaster response?• Layered view of society, enabled by networks• Only see hidden structure and behavior (i.e., “what matters”)
when things break• Immediate relevance (domestic/international)
– DHS/FEMA, DoD all trying to develop doctrine– NGOs, UN, international community– Interoperability issues across comm spectrum– Global concern that we’re on brink of one or more disasters of
unparalleled scale and we don’t do well with disasters of any size• Desperate need for theory
– Interesting physical phenomena– Boundary of physical science and human behavior– Intersection with public policy
• Opportunities for data collection, modeling– Ongoing field experiments/exercises/real events– After action reports from real events
What is a disaster and how is it measured ?
• A recent Glossary of Emergency Management Terms lists 65 different definitions of “disaster” in the emergency management literature.
• Many of these definitions characterize a disaster in terms of the severity of the consequences (i.e., the impact)– e.g., the EM-DAT disaster database (http://www.emdat.be; global disaster
data since 1900) defines a disaster as having one or more of the following:• 10 or more people killed• 100 or more people affected• declaration of a state of emergency• call for international assistance
Disasters involve severe impacts on life, property, or the environment.
Critical Infrastructures• Information and Communications:PTN, TV/Radio, CATV, Internet,
Satellite, Wireless• Energy Systems:Electrical Power, Gas and Oil
Production, Storage and Transport• Physical Distribution:
Transportation, Water Supply Systems, Sewage and Disposal
• Vital Human Services:Emergency, Government, Military Services
• Social Systems
Different initiating events have similar consequences
Initiating Event
Earthquake Flood Slides Volcano Wave / SurgeWild Fires Wind Storm
AccidentFailureAttack
Natural:
Technological:
Consequences
•Deaths
•Human Suffering
•Damage
•Social, Psychological
•Political
Human Systems(social, economic, information, …)
What is a Hastily Formed Network (HFN)?A HFN Consists of Five Elements*:• a network of people or technologies established rapidly• from different communities,• working together in a shared conversation space• in which they plan, commit to, and execute actions• to fulfill a large, urgent mission.
HFN application areas:• Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR)• Network-centric military operations• Critical national/international infrastructure
*P. Denning, Hastily Formed Networks, Communications of the ACM 49(4): 15-20, April 2006.
HA/DR
• SE Asian Tsunami (Jan-May 05)
• Hurricane Katrina (Sep-Oct 05)
• USNS Mercy Humanitarian Mission to SE Asia (Summer 06)
• USNS Comfort Latin/South America Humanitarian Mission (Summer 07)
• Myanmar - Cyclone Nargis (Summer 08)
Net-Centric Ops
• DHS/DOD Golden Phoenix (07-08)- DOD/DHS Joint Radio Interoperability
• NPS COASTS (07-08)- Cooperative Operations and Applied
Science& Technology Studies creates wireless field experiment opportunities in SE Asia
• NPS RELIEF Field Experiment / Demo Program
- Research & Experimentation for Local & International Emergency & First Responders
- Quarterly one-week events followed by week of wireless surveillance / targeting field demos
NPS HFN Center: Live Ops and Field Experiments
We have catalogued more than 80 DoD/DHS Military Ops + HA/DR focused exercises.(HFN Center Website: http://www.hfncenter.org)
Disaster Response: messy and hard !• Domestic Disaster Response Problems
– Lots of players requiring significant coordination– New National Response Framework untested in large disaster– Shoestring budgets, poor spending choices– Problems with comms interoperability (voice, data, RF, etc.)– No universal standards: NIMS + ICS optional– Trained first responders can also be victims (e.g., pandemic)
• International Disaster Response Problems– Who is in charge (UN, NATO, regional orgs like ASEAN)?– Interoperability worse than in U.S. – larger scale– Too many online disaster mgmt or collaboration tools and portals– Politics of multi-national response to multi-national disasters– Lack of cooperation between NGO and gov’t/military communities
Efforts to coordinate disaster response are studied as part of Emergency Management
What is Emergency Management?• “…the coordinated and collaborative integration of all relevant stakeholders
into the four phases of emergency management (mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery) related to natural, technological, and intentional hazards.”– National Governors Association, 1978 Emergency Preparedness Project
Final Report.
• "…the governmental function that coordinates and integrates all activities necessary to build, sustain, and improve the capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from or mitigate against threatened or actual natural disasters, acts of terrorism or other man-made disasters." – Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act of 2006" (Title VI of H.R.
5441) (now Public Law 109-295)
• “…the managerial function charged with creating the framework within which communities reduce vulnerability to hazards and cope with disasters.”– Principles of Emergency Management, FEMA Emergency Management
Institute, September 11, 2007.
Emergency Management is mostly reactionary, not very scientific
The National Response Plan (NRP) for Disaster Management
(pre-2008 doctrine)
Source: FEMA Independent Study Course “Principles of Emergency Management”, February 2006.
Incident timescales vary by disaster type…..
• Best means for mitigation depend on– amount of warning for an incident– duration of incident itself
Preparation Response Recovery
Incident timescales vary by disaster type
minutes hours months
earthquakes
forest fires
tornado
hurricane
flood
minutes
weeks
months
event duration
event warning volcano
tsunami
drought
epidemic
extreme temp
these timescales determine what types of mitigation are possible
famine
days weeks
hours
days
Can shape the evolution of the disaster itself
Build resilience.Recover quickly.
Evacuation
Lots of recent activity….still a mess!
• National Response Framework replaced NRP– Result of Katrina lessons learned – system overwhelmed
and NRP not appropriate
• Renewed emphasis on exercises, training, certifications; NIMS/ICS promotion
• Hard look at industry solutions and managed service model versus buying/maintaining solutions locally
• Corporations getting onboard with increased focus on “corporate social responsibility”
• Proposals flooding system to access stimulus funds (not a pleasant process – too many strings attached)
Can we take a more structured look at the problem?
HFN Basics: Building Comms
Good News: we know how to solve using COTS technologies
– No power– No fiber/copper infrastructure– No push-to-talk comms to speak of– Cellular svc mostly jammed / overwhelmed– SatPhone svc mostly jammed / overwhelmed– Not enough satellite equipment suites available– No Internet access (web, email, VOIP)– No technical people resources available
The Challenge:austere environment
Details on the “9 Piece Puzzle” at www.hfncenter.org
Bad News: In practice, comms are typically not the problem
• The real problem is the “human layer” that sits above the comms– Organizational– Cultural– Informational– Civil-military boundary
Relevant research questions :• Can we make sense of this mess?• Is there an “architecture” for HFNs?• How do we build more effective HFNs?
Componentconstraints
System-levelconstraints
What is the“design space”
for an HFN?
Constraints that
deconstrain
a constraint-based view of architecture
Hard Limits Policies & Doctrine
Recent experience suggests that the existing “architectures” are bad ones. Can we do better?
A Layered View of HFN Architecture
The ConversationThe Conversation
The “Conversation Space”The “Conversation Space”
““APPLICATIONAPPLICATIONLAYER”LAYER”
““NETWORKNETWORKLAYER”LAYER”
““PHYSICALPHYSICALLAYER”LAYER”
The ConversationThe Conversation
““APPLICATIONAPPLICATIONLAYER”LAYER”
SPECIALIZED - Collaboration - Sit Awareness - Command/Control - Integration/Fusion
SPECIALIZED - Collaboration - Sit Awareness - Command/Control - Integration/Fusion
““NETWORKNETWORKLAYER”LAYER”
““PHYSICALPHYSICALLAYER”LAYER”
VIDEO/IMAGERY - VTC - GIS - Layered Maps
VIDEO/IMAGERY - VTC - GIS - Layered Maps
VOICE - Push-to-talk - Cellular - VoIP - Sat Phone - Land Line
VOICE - Push-to-talk - Cellular - VoIP - Sat Phone - Land Line
TEXT - email - chat - SMS
TEXT - email - chat - SMS
WIRED - DSL - Cable
WIRED - DSL - Cable
WIRELESS LOCAL - WiFi - PAN - MAN
WIRELESS LOCAL - WiFi - PAN - MAN
WIRELESS LONG HAUL
- WiMAX - Microwave - HF over IP
WIRELESS LONG HAUL
- WiMAX - Microwave - HF over IP
REACHBACK - Satellite Broadband - VSAT - BGAN
REACHBACK - Satellite Broadband - VSAT - BGAN
POWER - Fossil Fuel - Renewable
POWER - Fossil Fuel - Renewable
HUMAN NEEDS - Shelter - Water - Fuel - Food
HUMAN NEEDS - Shelter - Water - Fuel - Food
PHYSICAL SECURITY - Force Protection - Access Authorization
PHYSICAL SECURITY - Force Protection - Access Authorization
OPERATIONS CENTER
- NetSec - Command/Control - Leadership
OPERATIONS CENTER
- NetSec - Command/Control - Leadership
HUMAN / COGNITIVE LAYERHUMAN / COGNITIVE LAYERSocial/CulturalSocial/Cultural OrganizationalOrganizational PoliticalPolitical EconomicEconomic
A Layered View of HFN Architecture
Modeling Human Behavior: The OODA Loop• USAF Col John Boyd (1927-1997)• Descriptive model: continuous process of how individuals or
organizations react to events
Sensing, collecting data
Analysis and synthesis of data to form a perspective
Selecting a course of action
Executing the course of action
OBSERVE
ORIENT
DECIDE
ACT
• Boyd’s argument: Survival depends on speed through loop• Emphasis on drills and training to decrease response times
HFNs as “Network-Based OODA Loops”
• The OODA loop has been very influential culturally on DoD, and more recently DHS, in terms of training, drilling, etc– We know how to do OODA in single actor or tight
C2 contexts, and we have doctrine to guide our behavior
– Doing OODA among distributed, heterogeneous agents over a network is not understood
– HFNs exemplify the challenges in OODA in a network context
HFNs as “Network-Based OODA Loops” (cont’d)
• As a conceptual framework, the OODA loop ties together existing research in network science– Distributed algorithms for sensing, building
consensus, and taking action (e.g., synchronization, control of some other dynamical process)
– Behavioral network science: our team’s experiments about how humans interact over networks
• Open research question: how to improve our ability to do OODA in a network context?
Ongoing Research Efforts• Model existing doctrine for disaster response in terms of
a constraint-based architecture for HFNs
• Extend behavioral network science experiments to field exercises (moving to the right…)
• Develop simple lab and/or field experiments that isolate tensions in HFN operations (moving left…)
• Participation in and analysis of field experiments, exercises, and real world disasters– Via deployment of HFN comms, data collection, interviews
Questions ? Comments ?
Theory DataAnalysis
Numerical Experiments
LabExperiments
FieldExercises
Real-WorldOperations