OotKa ATUXftfJUTa Kat 0troptia EvTponia~

K.A.MHTPOllOY AOI:

nEPIAHiflll

K6p1o~ uKom5~ avn;~ nK cpyauia~ civa1 va ppc0ci J..oy1K6~ rlm:o~ uvvapTIIIIlJ~. 11:06 m0av6v vrrapxc1, J.lCTll(U TfJ~ CTrlKlVOVVOriJTllt; rwv 0/;ucwv !Jillt; OOOU Kill TWV YCWJ.lCTplKWV TIJt; XllPilKriJP111TlKWv, OTr(tJ~ Kat Twv xapaKr1Jpli1TlKWv KVclorpopia~. A11:6 TIJ btcpcVVIJIIIJ avni 11 orroia yivcrat !JC XP'iuiJ Til~ Oc(upia~ TIJt; cvrporriac; TrpOKUTITCt Ort TO rr,tl;ov KllTill17AO J.lOvrf),o civat cKcivo rrov txct A.oyaptOJ1tK6 Tvrro, UVJ1Trepai1J.lll TO orroio crrtKVpourat Kill J.IC rr1v rrpouappoy~

J.IOVTCAWV 11Tll oc/5optva llTVX~flllTOt;. Erriu'lt; t va. av.o UVJ1Trepai1J.lll cfval OTt 'I J.ltUIJ aKTiva KllJ.lTrVAOTf/TO~ J1t6.c; obou TrpCTr£1 va UVVOla(crat J.IC ro A.6yo opolOJ.lOpfPia~ TWV ywvtwv Tilt; 7T:OAVYWV/Kilt;,07T:Wt; opi(CTlll llTrO TO AOyO Tl/(;

bto.u11:opac; rrpoc; TIJ J.ICIIIJ TIJ.lli rwv rraparravw YWVlWV.

1. EIEArnrH

Evac; an6 -roue; KUptOuc; oKonouc; <11c; OVCtAUOrJ<; OfHlOO<; OTUXT]I-!CtTWV clVOl 11 np6~AS'l'11 <TJc; €1ttKtvouv6TT]-rac; 1-1iac; Oeo11c; ooou. r ta au-r6 TO OKOJr6 XPTJOll-!01tOLOUVTat apxsia OUXV6T11TO<; OWXTWOTO<; , 1-!S apxsia rrou wpopouv -ro ouo-r11~ta <11c; oO tK~c; 1-1€-raq>op<'.tc; (1r_x. apxeia o8ou , KUKA.oq>opiac; KA.n.) Kat 1-11: o-ran o-rtK€c; KUpta J.Ld)68ouc; OrJI-!lOUpyouvtat 1-!0VTEAO JrOU OUVOEOUV TO KiVbUVO OTlJX~I-!OTO<; (1c_x. OUXV6TT]TO OWXTJJ.LOTO<;) 1-!€ TO xapaKT11PIOTlKCt TOU J.L€TOq>OplKOU OUOT~~LOTO<; .

~nc; m:ptoo6Tepcc; 1-!EA.t'tec; XP~Oti-!O notehat 11 Tf:XVIK~ Til<; 1taAlVbp6~t110T]<; 1-!EO(J) T11<; OJrO[ac; 1tpOKU1tTOUV 1-!0vtEAO OTa onoia E~11PT111-!EV11

I-!ET<l~A11~ eivat ouv~9wc; 11 ouxv6T11Ta 11 o 8t:iKT11<; arux~l-laToc; Kat ave~<'.tpnrrec; KCtnO\a an6 T(l xapaKT11PIOTIKCt TOU OUOTlii-!O.TO<; oOtKt'lc; ~tETaq>op<'.tc;. ~· 6A.cc; auTE<; n c; ~teA.f:Tsc; OSV unapxst opt0~1Ev11 (l-!a9rJI-!OTIIOi) 1-!0Pq>~ TTJc; oxtoewc; an6 T11V onoia TEAtKa nap<'.tycmt TO aVT(OTOIXO 1-!0VTEAO , ill<'.t KCt0E q>Opa npooap~t6~ETat om oeoo1-1€va Twv apxdwv Kanota oxto11 nou A.a1-1~avETat auOaipc-ra Kcna T11 Kpt011 TOU 1-!EAET11T~. AK6pT] 11 U1t69E011 6n 11 E~11PT111-!EV11 1-!ETOPA11T~ KOT<lVEJ.LETat KOVOVIKCt ,Kat E1tO~IEVffi<; 01 1tt9ava 1tpOKU1tTOUOE<; apV11TIKE<; TillE<; 111<; a1t6 Ta napan<'.tvw 1-!0VTEAa 9trouv oo~ap~

OJ.l(j>IOP~Tll<J'l OE EKEiva o-ra 01tOia XP110IJ.L07rO\OUvtat crav avc~<'.tP<11<€<;

J.LETapA.T]TE<; ~ ouxv6<11Ta ~ o o€iKT11<; OTUX~J.lOTO<; Kat 6Xl KCt1tOIO<; J.l f:Ta<JX'l i-!OTIOJ-16<; <11<; J.LETO~AT]T~<; OUT~<;-

Ot Turner Kat Tomas ( 1986) [ I] J.lETCt <11 Ot€pSUVI10 '1 1'1<; OXEOT]<; ~LS'ta~u ouxv6nrrac; arux.111-!CtTwv Kat po~c; KUKAOq>opiac; yp<'.tq>ouv : " Relatively high values of R2 have been obtained wi thquite different models. Further stat istical investigators of therelationships accident rates and traffic flows , and inparticular an attempt to explain differences between sites,should be worthwhile".

H avat;~<11<J11 KCt1t01ac; A.oytKa napabsKT~c; J.lOpq>~c; OXEO'l<; 1-!ETO~U PaOJ.lOU KIVOUVOU Kat x_apaKTilPIOTIKOlV TOU OU<H~I-!<lTO<; Til<; OblK~<; 1-!ET<lq>Op<'.tc;, <l7rOTEAs[ TO avttKi:IJ.lEVO TT]<;

- 103-

cpyacr iac; aun)c;. AKOJ..ll] Ta J..lOVTl:A.a rrou rrpoKi>rrTOUV an6 n1v rrapamlvro rrpocrtyylOI]

2.0E.QPIA ENTPOUIAE KAI ATYXHMATA

:E' tva oi51K6 OiKTUO (oiJOTI]J..la) TO orroio arron:A.eirm arr6 (N) nA.~eoc; etcrcrov ac; urroetcroupc 6n Oa CTUJ..lPOuv (A) CTUVOAIK6<; ap19J.16c; arux11J..l('nrov , Kara Tl] xpoviK~ rrcpiooo {T) pcAtn1c;, Kat {Xt) civm o apt9J.16<; Trov arun~u'nrov rrou Oa cruJ..!Pouv KaTn n1v lola XPOVlK~ rrcp iooo Otll et crl] (t) TOU OOlKOU OtKruou. Eivm npoq>avtc; 6n TO rrA.~Ooc; TWV aTux•w nrrov (A) Oa KaTaVEJ..!T]Souv J..lETa~u Trov Otcrcrov TOU ootKou OtKwou tro1 <i>oTc oc KaDc Otol] Ta aTUX~f.laTa (Xt) va eivm avaA.oya rrpoc; Tl]v em Ktvouv6r'lm ( fi) TTJS Oto'ls· Env (Pi) civat 11 m0av6T'lta va ouJ..!Pci tva awx.TJJ..la OT'l Otcrl] (i) KaTCr Tl] ;(pOVIK~ m::piooo (T) (o!]A.aoti Pi= X i/ A) t6t c :

l:Pi= l ( I) Env (fi) efvm 'l cruvnpT!]OI] C7riKIVOUV6T11T<l<;

T11S 9ECTllS (i) (cruvapt1]011 apVT]tiK~<; roq>l:ACia<; ) Ill Kat ,E[f] eivw 11 ~·tcr'l crrtKtvouv6t 11Ta t11<; ooou (cnctl>ti ta Xi eivat avaA.oya T(t}V fi) r6rc

:EPifi= E ifl (2) Arr6 t l] Seropia T11S rrA.11poq>opiac; (3 1 , crav cvrponia opit;pat to J..!Erpo T'lS yv<i>crTJ<; rrcpi r 11c; aPcPat6t11toc; rou ouot~paroc; [ I). :E 'aut!] tl] rrcpinrrocr'l 11 cvrponia opil;crat arr6 Ttl CT;(S011 :

S=-:EPi L nPi (3) pc S>O.

01 S~IOWOSt<; ( I) troc; (3) a1tOtSAOUV roue; rrcptOplOJ..lOU<; TOU CTUOT~J..laTO<; , EVW 11 rrASOV rrtOavll Katnomo•l toopporriac; tou crucrn ;paroc; siva1 SKsiv11 6rrou 'l svrporria f.IEylOTOrrotcitm [I ,3] . II m9etv6T'lTa Pt prropci va cupc9ci J..lE XP~OTJ rrov rroUarrA.ao1aoT<i>v tou Lagrange l>taq>opil;ovrac; KUI Ka9opil;oVTa<; TO J..lty iOTO . Opil;ovrac; T'lV cruvapT11<J11 :

M(Pi)=-:Epi lnpi-A.(l:Pi-1)-J..l(l:Pifi-E ifl ) (4) 6rrou A, f.1 siva1 rroUarrA.amacrttc; Lagrange. t..1a<popil;ovrac; ti]V rrapanavw c~icrrom1 tx.oupc: OM(Pi)/9Pi=-(ln Pi+ I )-1..-~tfi (5) To f.l ty tcrto r 11<; cruvapt~crcroc; ( 4) rrpoK(mtCI arr6 n c; pil;sc; r11<; s~iorooT]<; : OM(Pi)/OPi=O (6) Etot l>ev e!vm l>ucrKoA.o va arrol>e•xOci 6n :

e _t•fi

Pi = ---------------:Ec _,,ro

(7)

Orrou (p) OUVTCACOt~<; KUI (e) 11 pacr11 t rov vcrrcpiwv A.oyap iOJ..lroV.

Aut~ 11 crxtcr'l dva1 tva rroAA.anA.6 A.oyaptOJ.ltK6 J..lOVtl:A.o. II cruvapTTJ011 ErrtKlvl>uv6t11ta<; (apv'lt1K1)<; ro<ptA.cta<; ) ( I I ouvar6v va A'l<pOci 6n civm ypaJ.l~liK~ 6nwc; :

fi=bo +l:biYi + ci (8) 6rrou bo civat crra9cpa Kal bi civat tva l> tavucr~w rrapaj.ltrprov , Yi civat tva Ol(ivuo~•a x.apaKt'lptottK<i>v (j) Til<; TOrroOccrio.c; (i) cruvoA.tKou ap t0~tou N KUI si civat 6p1o oq>6.A.f.1aroc; A.6yw rrapaA.ctllf'lS xapaKT'lPtOTtKWV 11 OTOtX!:irov rrou osv ncptA.aJ..lPavoVTat oro ~tovrtA.o.

Arr6 nc; c~tO<i>octc; ( I ) Kat (7) txoJ.lE :

(9) Pi= ......... ............. = ...... ............ = ..................... ...

:Exi A :Ee-~ro

Arr6 Tqv s~iorootl (9) J..lia rrpo<pav~c; A.uo11 T'lS civat :

xi=exp(bo+:EbiYi +Ei) =cxp (fi) ( 10)

3. L\EL\OMENA

To 00tK6 t..iKTUO x.apaKT'lPIOTIKCr TOU onoiou ea XP'l01J..l07r01'100uv y ta t'lV owptuv'lO'l tou rrap6.yovra (m) civm ro ~:OvtK6

00tK6 t..iKTUO ncA.orrovv~oou T'l<; N. EA.A.aooc;. K6.0c oo6c; civat ouo KatcuOuvocuw K(ll ouo A.ropiorov KUKAO<popiac; ' xropic; OlaxroptottKll V'lOiOa ~IE rrtWX.Ct rcroJ..lCTpiKU X<lP<lKtqptOTIKU

- 104-

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·Sno1 ~~rill lw~ri li1 Sodu'SnJdlndJ..ouAOJldo Slu (d) SmltlilQ'(CllLlin.lt "<nA! u n A <n 1 A<'!> 1i 11 A <T>A:J rl n 01 o uorlw li dX i\(l)l (1\<n'(Q) SJ;>dOlL.O'I)lg Slu JOAQ'( 0 :LA

·[~::!Jll::lp J (J..) Af!lli\(l)A i\(l)1 M!)lil1 i\(l)A:]liCJOIOllOlil.Dl.idX A<nl ( A<n'(9} ~1i11 lL.o:]rl II :'>A

·(S:]rlu 10 53'(9) Sno1 ~ui11 LID:]li Alil Sodu (A.) A('!>IA<n.l.. <nAJ;>ll'OdOlL A(l)1 Af!lrill A<nA:]riCJOIOUOliJ.olidX A(l)1 Sl)dOll.O'OI\? Sll1 JOAQ'( 0 :~A

'jUD1fll::lp] (1) I)Ogo Sl11 So.lt~li 01 SodlL' SnJdlodA.oi1AOJido Sli1 S~.ltiJ\{l)ACl'(Oll Slt1 (A.) Af!llMIJA M!).ltld3l(l)~3 i\(l)l A<]Jrill A(l)1<;l'(Oll0 A(l)l A('!>lill A(l)1 JQl'OriDjOdeo 001 SoA.Q"( o·"(llg'l)ogo Sln Ql.lt13'(3 OJ.. : 'A

:<nlJ;>XOdnu 1'01AOJ)dO 'O).O'OJ..d3 Ali1 ~lCl'O,D 1'0lA().OIOllOii1DlidX

J3)0lLO 10 J:]1LI'(£]013li S3lllldl)~3i\'l) 10 ·(f=ll) S<n3.o:;JXD (g) SL11

LIXIOl.OJlAn 3li 1'013JJA.o"(ouo (ll) C)ogo lw~e

J;>A'O (W) S01mi~Xmn S~HiQido So.o:;~li o liD<nlll)d3u Alu l,unn,D m)l

·o.ogo Sl11 mltlQlAO ~X3M.O J3'(3louo

nA (f) l)ogo Sl11 (u) Dtil;trl1 01 'JO'(:}l m.lt -'(AQl'OACl\?

1'01\)3 QlCl'O 00ll9) Sogl)AOri Slll i\O).Ol.t'(lL-Q.Ogo JOlnri~ti1 u.o:;~e

T)AD Somtil;tXmn mlt1QAXnn liD:]li li1 Sodu S1iJdou.omg Slu OAQ"( 01

QlL'O HU3J)dO J(l)llQ -(u) Sowti~til ClOl )I Sn]dldoliOIOliO A<nA.J;>dnu o­

·o<w v6'"£'l'l =u (u) SOlnti~1ti1 (!)

li.O:]Q l)A'O (11\1) A(l)11)lril.iX01'0 JQiiQid'O JO.O:]Ii­'JY.l)dOdlO'(.ltO.lt C101dQdlllll.tlQd3QOl~­

·(AQlOAO\?

mAp 91nn nou9) So)<bndJ..oui\O)IdO A('!>.ltnmduJ..ltndoX mlt1Qd3Q'01~

:md~11d.lt '09<\0'(Q.ltO '01 QlL'O l'l)l3JJdO (SnO.lt~rl I)O.ltU3dodl'01\? J<nQ~AnD )nri~llil

3Q1)l)l' 'Ol'Oti~Xn10 9Lll i\D.Ol.tg:]AnD DJOlLO n1.o <nAT)lL tu)j 96L Sno.lt~ri Q.O.lti"(OAnD mnri~1il V6 3.0 l'l)l]3diDI\? OCll.ltJ\? Ol 'AOd31().3'\7'q

o.ogo f Sl.t1 (!)li.O:JO lu.o A<n1l)lil.tXmn A<nA:JiirlndA.n1D.lt A<n1 SQtiQ1dn o mA13 IX ID.lt f C)Ogo Sl11 So.lt~rl 01 1DAJ3 rl nou9

f'l (II) -----=fw

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:l.tD:;~X.o lt1 QllD ' 8l ............... •z• I=[ CD Qgo 3QD.lt mJ.. 1Dll)lill.lt3 C)ogo l.t.o:;~o

'/)lAO A(l)1J;>tiltXn1o A<nl(fw) JQiiQidD SOD:]ri 0 '(10.0~i\i\OlL0'(3U Sl.t~ (A('!>riON

S3DClOC)3l<ndu OldC))i) JI3'(9U ~)(l!? 13:}\?AClD m.lt Sno.lt~rl Q.O.ltll3dodlmg I'OAJ3 S9go 3Q1)l)l' Dl'IJii~IXCll'O S:6£l i\D.Ol.tg:}AClD O)OllO OlD (l)i\'l))lL lU>J 99Z:I J<10)1~ li ().O.ltl'(Oi\ClD M!)!?O t\<nlli1dJ?~3A'O 8(; O'(Oi\1).0 Di\':} IDl3A1iJ£lliO'( 'AOlf!ldU 'I?

:SnOUQd1 SI)O.lt113dodlmg oo.g 3ti mnrll.trl1 JD ID1]3dlmg onl.lt)V Q.lti!?O 01 91ny ·nwti~Xo £9U S<n:J 00~ QUO 101\)3 9!?0 3QJ?.lt DlA ()I 1-1 11\13) J001':} D)dOdlO"(.ltfi.lt DID~td31il.t liD:]ri II '3VUX3UA no1 coo 11 :>l?A!un)~lDIA.o"(olLn i\Ol 9un podll.t'( 13X:] SnJdodlop(l.)t JO)! Af!l!?O opXdo OJ.

'i\(l)li\'l)lgrln~ D)"(glg 0110)1 J(l)llQ 'JD)DXOd1 A<n11)lriltri1 A<nllQ1 J?Ul.lt A<nl A<n11iJrll.tXmn A<nJDXOdJ.. 0)1'(3'\7 'Ol QllD i\DDliQdl~"(3

J;>lnomnri~tXcun DJ..' £861-6L61 DJ13D1A3lL Alll '/))1'0)1 ADDU£j:}AClD C\Oll' S3g7jl"(gJ:})IUTJii(l).O 31i DAJ3.lt3 m.lt mnti~Xn~n ndQdll.twAJJQ m l)dodln 'U.OO"(J;>i\D Ali~ ~1<1D, D J3Ql.IIOlLOJiJ.ol.tdX JJQ O)OllO 01 A<n11)llil.tXnl1) opXdn OJ.

·Snpouogo A('!>li.OIAOAD.lt A<nAodXAo..o L;tJ..midndlJ Alil 3ti J3QDJJ<13.ltDJJlD.lt 13X':} Di\ Jjd<nX 1'1))1 S:}Xotd3u S:}Al3do 3.0 ID1J3AI.lt onl.ltJ!? 01 S<nJdO)I'

Y9: Apt6~-t6c; KaiJ1tUAWV ava KM ~-~~Kouc; ooou (NO/Km).

Y 10: 0 A.6yoc; til<; omcmopac; (6A.wv) twv n~-t<i:>v twv KaTa IJ~Koc; KA.icrcwv npoc; Til IJEcrll n~-t~ touc; (%).

Y 11: 0 Myoc; t'l<; 8taCJ1topac; te.ov XP'lCJt~J07totou~-ttvwv n~-t<i:>v Twv KaTa 1-l~Koc;

KA.icrEwv npoc; Til ~-t€cr'l n~otti touc; (iotE<; tt~ot€<; A-a~-tPavovtat crtov Myo aut6 ~-tia cpopa).

Y 12: H crux.v6Tilta aAA.ay~c; TWV Kata ~Ll.lKO<; KA.icrcwv ava 1-lOVUOa IJ~KOU<; OOOU (KM) (y6vata ~lllKOtO~ot~<; ava KM).

Y 11: 0 A6yoc; TOU EU6Uypa~ot1JOU ~l~KOU<; til<; ooou (apx.~ln€patoc;)np6c; t o npantattK6 pi]KO<; tT]<;.

y 14: 0 M yoc; TT]<; otacrnopac; tWV XP'lCJ t~otonotoup€vwv tt~t<i:>v t ou c\Jpouc; tou ooocrtpcil~otatO<; t'l<; OOOU npoc; tT] 1-lECJT] Till~ touc; [ m2/m).

Y 15: 1-1 crux.v6tT]ta aAA.aycilv tou c\Jpouc; OOOCJTpW~tatO<; ava IJOVUOa IJl'jKOU<; OOOU .

Y 16: 0 A.oyoc; T'l<; 8taCJ1topac; twv XP'lcrt~-tonotouptvwv tt~ot<i:>v TOu Eupouc; Epcicrpatoc; TTJ<; ooou (iotEc; ttJ.lf:c; A.a~tPavovtat pia cpopa) npoc; T'l~-tECJ'l np~ wuc;.

Y 17 : M€cr ll llJ.lEp~crta KUKAocpopia ttouc; ox.lwaTal'l~t€pa (AADT).

Y 18: L.uxv6T'lta aA.A.aycilv tou Eilpouc; EpEicrJ.latO<; t 'l<; OOOU ava povaoa fJ~KOU<; TT]<; (No/KM).

y I 'J: Apt6p6c; tcr61tEOWV otacrtaupcilcrEWV ava KM ooou.

Y 20: 0 M yoc; tou ~lliKouc; TTJc; ooou Lk IJE nap68ta 06p.f1ml11:PO <; TO 1-l~KO<; tT]c; OOOU (L).

Y 21: 0 A.6yoc; tT]c; 8taCJ1topac; •wv napatllPOUfJEVWV tlfJWV tOU cp6ptou KUKA.ocpopiac; ttl<; ooou npoc; t'l fJEml ttfJT] Touc;.

Y 22 : To npayfJattK6 fJl']Ko<; t'lc; ooou (Krn).

4.All0TEAE1:MA TA

H otEpEUV'lCJT] tou pEmPA-TJnic; (m) f;y tvE IJC 1-1/Y XP'lcrtJ.l01l:Ot6vmc; to naK€to crtancrnK~<; SPSS/PC+ (stepwise methods) Kat ~tE ta OEOOfJEVa TTJ<; npOTJYOUfliN'lc; napaypacpou.

Ot crucrx.tttcr'lc; fJEta~u t tl<; avE~aptTJt'l<; ~otEtaPA.TJt~<; (rn) Kat t T]c; avE~apt~tou (rn), 6nwc; Kat 01 pEcrOt Kat T] TUltlK~ an6KAICJ'l twvpctaPA.TJtcilv autcilv napoumal;ovtat napaKchw: An6 T'lV napanavw nopEia 8tEpEUVf1cr'lc; ta KataUT]MtEpa flOVtEAa ltOU 11:pOKV7tTOUV E[vat:

m=-1.5050+4.66 104 X 17+6.21 10.3X8

+0.027X5 R=0.88 (12.1 ) (0.5808) (6.95 10"5) (1.36 10"3) (0.017)

In m=-3.48+0.995InX 17+0.94InXw0.471nX22 R=0.92 (12.2)

(1.35) (0.149) (0.189) (0.201 )

lnm=-2.17+2.64 104 X17+5.16 10"3X8

+0.023X5 R=0.80 (12.3) (0.525) (6.28 10"5) (1.23 10'3) (0.0 1)

Inm=-6.3556-2.65521nX22-

0. 7619lnX 11 +0.3498InX 17+1.2419InX5

+4.0248 1n X8 R=0.91 (12.4) (2.6763) (0.272) (0. J 907)

(0.1 1 06) (0.3351) (1.3475)

- 106-

Ot aptO~toi !lS<m an~ napcv9£crEt~ ( ) Eivat ta TU1tlKU O"<pUAJlUTa TWV UVTtO"TOlX.WV crta9EpWV.

5. :EYMTIEP A:EMAT A llEPAITEP.Q EPEYNA

Ta ~acrtKa cruJl7tEpCtcrJlata nou ava<p£povtat <ITTJ !1EO"'l O"UX.VOT'lta UTUX.~!lUTO~ (mi) 7rOU O"Ufl~aivouv crE 11ia O£cr11 (i) T'l~ o8ou Eivat : - 0 Jlcya'Autcpo~ cruvn:'Aecrt~~ crucrx.Et'lO"TJ~ (R- 0.92) <lVTlO"tOlX.Ei O"tO AOyapt9!1tK6 !lOVTEAO ( A.oyapt0!1 LK~ crx.£m1 yta 6A.e~ tt~ !lCta~A'l'tE~) TO onoio npoK67ttEt Kat ava'AunK6. ~tc ' '1 Ocwpia Til~ EVTponia~. - I I napank up'l KaTOtKT]~tEv'l 7tEptox~ 6nw~

EK<ppCtl,ET<ll U1t6 T'l !leT<l~AT]T~ Y 20 KUI '1 Y 18,

1tOU £K<pp6.l,Et l'l O"UX.VOtllTa l(I)V UAAaywv TOU eUpOU~ TOU EpEtO"~l(lTO~ (lVU !10V6.0a ~l~KOU~

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BIBAJOrPA<I>I A

[I ]Stopher P.R. nncl Meyburg A. ll. " rban T r::msporta t ion modeling :mel p lanning " He.1rth and company . 1977 . [21 Tumcr D.J . and Thomas R. "Mototway accident~ :an examination of accident totals . rates and severi ty and their relationship with trnflic now "Tra ff. Engng. Contr·ol vol. 27, o.7/8, July/A ugust 1986 pp 377-383. [3) Wilson A.G. "A statistical theory of :.patial distribution models " Transportation Research vol. 1, 1967.

K.A.M'1Tp6rrouA.o~, l latT]cricov 2 ~ AO~va : n -IA. 5236724

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Traffic Accident and Entropy Theory

C.L.M ITROPOULOS

A/JST/?1\CT

Tlte main (11/r(Jose of tltis work , is to find a logical j(m11 of tlte fwrctirm tltat eJ.I.\I probably between lra<.ardous locations and geometric characteristics of tltis location and traffic clraractt•ristics . Tit is investigation become bv using tlte entropy theory tmd find tire most suitable model lra.f tire logarithmic form .Also, was raised tltat tlte increase of tlte w •erage radius roads cun·ature it nrust he connecting by tire angle.1· wrifomrity of polygonical of tire lrori::.ontal alignment as e.\(Jressed from tlte ratio of tlte variance ,over tire average of tlte usNI (Jrice\ (in de!(ree.\ ).

!.INTRODUCTION

A main purpose o f the groups analysis of traffic accidents is the privation of the hazardous of the road location .For this purpose are used files frequency of acc1dents ,with files that are concerned by transportation system (eg.roads characteristics Iiles • traffic volume files etc ) and by statistic methods making models that arc connecting the danger accident (cg. frequency of accident ) with the characteristics of transportation system.

In a few studies is used the regression analysis by which become models in that dependent variable i s commonl y the frequency or rate accident per location road , and independent variables are the geometric characteristics of road and/or the traffic characterist ics. In these studies there is not a fi x ing form function by wh ich the models arc derived .In addi tion . the suppose that the dependcm variables is distributed by normal distribution ( thus probably negati ve values for the average rate of accident) seen that i s not

va lid for the models that used as dependent variables the frequency or rat io of accident and now their relat ionship (cg. logarithmic transformation ).

Turner J. and Tomas R. ( 1986) after the investi gation o f the relationsh ip between frequency of accidents and traffic vol ume, write: " Relati vely high values o f R2 have been obtained with quite different models. Further statistical investigators of the relati onsh ips accident rates and traffic flows , and in particular an attempt to explain differences between si tes, should be worthwhi le".

The investigation of a logical form function between hat.ardous location and oeometric characteristics of the location and traffic characteristics is the main purpose of th is work. In add ition, the models that ariscd from over approach are fitting to the accident data.

2.ACCIDENT THEORY

AND ENTROPY

Lets we have a road network that called system , with (N) total number local ions (Km) on which occurring (A ) total number of accident for the peri od of time (t) and (xi) is the number o f accident occurring on the location (i) in the same period o f time(t).These (/\) accidents wi ll be distributed between site.~ of the system such as in each si te the accidents been analogous of the hat.ardous site. If (pi) is the probabi li ty that occurring exactly one accident on location (i) in period of time ( t) (namely p i=xi/A) then :

- I 08-

p, = I ( I ) l f (ti ) is the "hazardous functi on " or the locati on (i) ( function negati ve utili ty) and E(F] the average ha7.,ardous of the road we can suppose (because xi analogous fi ) that:

p;f; =EI f-1 (2)

From the information theory , entropy is defined as a measure of the uncertainty of

by the model. From equations ( I ) and (4) we have :

XI XI

pi=----=-----=------ (6) A (r)i l:e-1'r'

From the equation (6) an obvious solution of (x i) is:

knowledge of a system [ II .In this case .entropy xi=exp(bo+biYi + ei) =exp ( fi ) (7) defined by equation :

S= -p; lnp; (3)

The equations ( I ) to (3) constitute the constraints of the system. From over equations, it fo llows that the most probable state of a system (in statistical mechanics ) is that state in which entropy is maximised. T he (pi) can be found by using the method of L agrange multipliers differentiating and determining the maximum. lt is not hard to see that :

-li e p1=--------­

l:e·llfi (4)

where 11 is coeffi cient and e base of logarithm. This equation is a multinomial logi t formula. The faction hazardous (negati ve util ity) can taken to be linear may de expressed as :

fi=bo + biYi + ei (5)

where bo is a constant , and bi is a vector or parameters , Yi is a vector of characteristics (j ) of the location ( i) totalling number N and ei is the error term or disturbances representing omitted characteristics and elements not accounted for explicity

3. ACCIDENT DATA

The accident data for the investigation of the function hazardous locati on (fi ) or average number (m) o f acc ident per location road , is consisting of cases of fatal and inj ury accidents ( from pol ice accident reports and books facts. and legal papers) happened during a period of fi ve years ( 1979- 1983) in National road network of Peloponnese, Southern Greece.

This network i s divided in roads with two different manners:

Primary, is taken a set o f 28 independent or roads, totalling length 1266 km on which happened 2395 accidents. Each road is different length and connected two minor cities of Peloponnese.

The average number of accident (mj) per location of road is estimated for each road (j) .1 = I ,2 ... . 91 .by relation:

XI

mj= ----­Lj

(8)

where Lj is the length of road site and xi is the number of acc idents that observed at location (i) of the j road .

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b.Secondary,the network is divided into 94 parts, totalling length 796 km on which happened 1276 accidents (a lot of roads - from 28- is not divided into the parts because there are not detai led data).Each part is different length and is defined with below criteria: -Stable volume of traffic -average number of accident (M) per location (i) o f part (n) n= I ,2,3 ... 94 is M>O -the "uniformity factor K "of the part (n)- as defined from ratio of the variance of accident over average number of accident per location of the part, is about equal one, and last -the part (n) of road (j) is the continuous entity of the road. stability of characteristics of the hori zontal alignment (where this is possible) Really, the roads of the network that have makes on the flat to rol l ing terrain , have highe t average frequency of accidents from ones that have makes on the mountainous terrain, with same traffic volume.

The Highway and Traffic file is been taken from computer (uni vac 1100 of the Ministry of Public Constructions and Environment directorate of planing ,and refer to 2-way/2-lane roads with a annual average dail y traffic (AADT) of 500 -7263 vehicles.

The independent variables, which are going to be used in this survey, are defined tO the Greek text.

4. RESULTS

The investigation of the average number of accidents was done by computer using

Since the Peloponne e National Road Network has makes generally on mountains terrain. and over relation may reflect the

SPSS/PC+ package (methods stepwise) and the given facts of the previous paragraph. After that process the appropriate models resuhed are equations ( 12).

S.CONCLUSIONS RESEARCH

FURTHER

The basic conclusions refereeing to the average frequency (mi ) of accidents occurring on a location ( i) of the road is: - The biggest correlation coefficient (R=0.92 ) respecti ve to the logarithm model (relation logarithmic for all variables ). The main variable that acts upon the average frequency of acc ident (m) is the volume traffic (AADT) (Y 17) and the true length of road (Y 22).

-The roadside buildings as expressed from variable Y 20 and the variable Y IK that expressed ~e -frequency of change of the soulder width per units length of road (km) are yet one variable that influence logically the average number of accidents. -The average frequency of accident (m) is increasing as much as increase the mean radius curvature of road (Y 8) and the variables Y 5 as expressed the angles uniformity of the polygonal horizontal alignment (as the ratio for the variance over the average used prices - in degrees). Here must notice that the values of the variable X8 in this work is :Namely the increase of average radius curvature and external angles of alignment of a road , must be connecting wi th the angles and radius uniformity of the polygonal of the horizontal alignment.

intensive attention of drivers due to the different severity of the accidents happening in roads. This special behaviour of the drivers is necessary to in vestigate.

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-The quali tative terms of " location hazardous " is quantitative defined by function of hazardous (ti) by entropy theory. Therefore is legi timate to be used as unit exposure (m) to ratio accident the relation ( I I ).

C.L.Mitropoulos, Patision21 Athens. TEL.5236724

-At last, the investigation the most properly transformation form of the objective characteristics of a road from driver, seems to be necessary.

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