Imagining Open Education 2030:

Towards a new ecosystem for Higher Education?

Yves Punie

Christine Redecker

Riina Vuorikari

Jonatan Castaño Muñoz

EADTU Keynote, "The Open and Flexible Higher Education Conference 2013", Paris, 23-24 October 2013

European Commission, Joint Research Centre

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS):

Research institute supporting EU policy-making on socio-economic, scientific and/or technological issues

ICT for Learning and Skills

– Research on "educational transformation in a digital world", in support of (mainly) DG Education and Culture

– Themes:– Mainstreaming and scaling-up ICT-enabled innovation for learning– Digital Competence for Education and Employability – Opening up Education, support and follow-up COM 2013 (654

final), 25 Sept 2013

Structure

I. Introduction and context on "past and future" of HE and Opening Up Education

II. A short review of existing scenarios on the future of HE

III. Results from IPTS foresight on Open Education 2030

IV. Final remarks

Thinking about the future…

• Newborns of today will be 17 years old in 2030

• but will they "graduate" in 2035?

• We expect the world to be somehow different by then…

Demography Globalisation Immigration Technology

Drivers

Labour market trends & demands

Labour Market

Personalisation

Collaboration

Informalisation

Tailormade & targeted Active & constructive Motivating & engaging

Learner-centred

Sociallearning

Lifewidelearning

Peer-learning Sharing & collaborating In communities

Anywhere, anytime Blending virtual & real Combining

sources/providers

Initiative, resilienceResponsibility

Risk-taking, creativity

Social skills

Learning skills

Personal skills

Education & Training New ways of learningNew skills

Managing, organisingMeta-cognitive skills

Failing forward

Team-, networkingEmpathy, compassion

Co-constructing

ICT Trends

Social networks Games Mobiles OER

Augmented Reality Data mining

3D virtual worlds LMS

Electronic tutors

ePortfoliose-books

Learning analytics

?? ?

?

Future of Learning (IPTS, 2011)

2012 Year of the MOOC

« Educational change… now more than ever…? »

• 2013 Year of the anti-MOOC…

Disruptive….

or sustaining innovation…?

Bower & Christensen, 1995

MOOC hype cycle

A very slow tsunami: projection of the Hype Cycle for MOOCs by Jonathan Tapson, University of Western Sydney http://pandodaily.com/2013/09/13/moocs-and-the-gartner-hype-cycle-a-very-slow-tsunami/

Distance Universities

open content (1998)

MIT OCW (2001)

Creative Commons

(2002)

1st cMOOC (2008) 1st Stanford

xMOOC (2011)

Open Universities (OUUK, OUNL, UOC…

Increasing number of Open Access papers & journals

UK Finch report

Cert

ifica

tion

Open badges

1st EU MOOC platform

1985 1990-2000

OERu

2001-2002 2006-2011 2012 2013

OU

OER

OA

MOOCs

History of Open Education

Open Education/ classrooms

1960's–1970's19th century

Alternative & Progressive education

Computer Assisted

Instruction (1970)

FreeSoftware

/GNU Budapest Open Access Initiative

Open Schools

OpenLearn (OUUK)

Digital learning

resources

OER Def. (UNESCO

2002)

A global shift

towards "openness"

The range of "Opens"

Carlota Perez, Tomorrow's Capitalism: GROWTH AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS, Presentation at the Institute for Public Policy Research, June 2009

The forces of disruption vs. sustaining are at play;

See also: Yuan & Powell, eLearning Papers, 33, May 2013

High "potential" for disrupting HE…

Change "will" occur…

II. A short review of existing scenarios on the future of HE

Open Networking…

Among institutions, scholars, students, industry; internationally - Voluntary cooperation but with hierarchy and prestige

Student autonomy – modular choices within the network (curricula and degree)

Serving Local Communities…

High # of local institutes vs. small # of elite HE institutions that are globally linked

Public funding, local funding; Focus on teaching and research serving local needs

New Public Responsibility…

Publicly funded, autonomous system with high accountability

Tuition fees; High competition for public research funds & specialisation in teaching and research

Higher Education Inc…

Global competition, focus on core business (teaching vs research) and fierce competition for best students and top academics

OECD CERI (2006): 4 scenarios for HE to 2030

The return of the binary divide in 2025…

A few top league research (25) globally networked vs a higher number (70) and more diverse group of teaching/research universities; High access fees

The grand design of the visible hand…

Public sector takes over control with a three tier system:

- super-six research incentive universities

- a larger # of full and comprehensive Grand Universities

- a significant # of private for profit institutes.

The future of English Higher Education: Two scenarios on the changing landscape, Leadership Foundation for Higher Education, May 2012

Imagining the future of HE in 2022, B. Alexander, Educause Review, Dec 2011

Learning at a distance…

Online learning at scale and sporadic local f2f contacts

The serpent digest a large mammal…

Little change, but fully encompassing the digital world

Campus Weirding…

Fully open, distributed and decentralised model with high # of MOOCs

2016 Scenario guide to effective tertiary education in New Zealand, Sept 2012, Ako Aotearoa, National Centre for Tertiary Teaching Excellence

"Imagining Open Education 2030 and the potential of OER" • A series of 3 sector workshops: Lifelong Learning (29-30/04), School

Education (28-29/05) and Higher Education (6-7/06) involving circa 50 experts

• Call for vision papers: 97 submissions! (49 HE, 31 SE & 17 LLL)

• Aim was NOT to predict but to develop shared visions and imagine different possible futures as a tool for strategic decision making, based on identifying, understanding and awareness raising around on key challenges, opportunities and possible threats.

• 2030 is set to force us to think out of the box and go beyond 2020…

IPTS foresight

Step 1: Identifying the critical issues

Step 2: Identifying the (two) key tensions

Step 3: Describing the emerging scenarios

Step 4: Milestones & Roadmap

Low X High X

Low Y

High Y

-/+

-/-

+/+

+/-

Scenario A

Scenario C

Scenario B

Scenario D

Workshop Methodology Open Education 2030

Guided discovery

Self-guided discovery

Guidedjourney

Self-guided journey

Guided Learning context Self-guided

Learner initiated

Externally set

goals

Learn

ing

Key tensions Open Education 2030

Learning conditions Open Education 2030

More open, flexible, fluid but all at the same time…?

When

How What

Where

Learner initiated

Externally set

Guided Learning context Self-guided

goals

Learn

ing

When

How What

Where

When

How What

WhereWhen

How What

Where

Closed

Scenario differences Open Education 2030

Selection

Assessment

Research

Content

Research

Content

Guidance

Assessment

Certification

Sele

ctio

n

2013

2030

Certification

Guidance

Consequences for HE Unbundlinginstitutions E.g R. McGreal, Shirkey.com; Barber et all 2013

Learner initiated

Externallyset

Learning context Self-guided

goals

Learn

ing

Scenario differences Open Education 2030

Guided

Guided

Guided journey

Where(closed)

Provide Learning Spaces (physical, online, local, global) and a strong sense of community

When Anytime but scheduled (= guidance)

What(closed)

- Meet externally set learning goals / curricula- Content quality assurance

HowFocus on teaching (e.g. MOOCs) and/or assessment and/or certification

Externallyset

Key role for institutions:• Guidance• Selection• Quality assurance

Learning context

Learn

ing

goals

Guided

Guided discovery

Where(closed)

- Provide Learning Spaces (physical, online, local, global) and a loose sense of community- Networks for research and innovation

When Anytime

What- Inquiry-based subjects- Post-graduate level subjects- Research and Innovation skills

How- Inquiry-based, exploratory- citizen science- E.g SPOCS & TORQUE

Learner initiated

Key role for institutions:• Lifelong Learning guidance• Meet diverse learner needs• Foster excellence• Knowledge and research

Learning context

Learn

ing

goals

Self-guided journey

Where Anywhere

When Anytime

What(closed)

- Meet externally set learning goals / curricula- Content quality assurance

How

Pick & Choose:- High-quality, instructionally designed learning materials from anywhere- Certification of prior learning- "Skills Portfolio"

Externallyset

Self-guided

Key role for institutions:• Quality content creation and

verification• Credit transfer • External assessment

Learning context

Learn

ing

goals

Self-guided discovery

Where- Anywhere- Pre-requisite: Abundance! - Informal learning networks

When Anytime

What - Personal goals- Creation of new knowledge

How

- OER; open data, MOOCs, SPOCS, TORQUE, any type of learning- Citizen science- hyper-connected

Self-guided

Key role for institutions:• Content production (diversity)• Learning platforms• Research & Innovation

Learning context

Learn

ing

goals

Learner initiated

IV. Final remarks (1/2) Open Education 2030

OE 2030 scenarios are not mutually exclusive!

• Preference for a scenario depends on ability, competences, needs and interest of both individuals and society

• "Self-guided discovery" scenario (most open) is NOT always the ideal

• Fluidity allows for moving between the learning scenarios

• OE 2030 still requires guidance and certain restrictions

[Draft – Work in progress – more final version end 2013]

[Paper: "OE 20130: Planning the future of Adult Learning in Europe", Open Learning: The Journal of Open, Distance and e-Learning]

Guided discovery

Learning café

Open discovery Learning for Life

Protected journey

Open training

Self-directed journey

My learning certified

Learner initiated

Externally set

Guided Learning setting Self-guided

& Curricula

Content

Adult Learning scenarios Open Education 2030

Final remarks (2/2) Open Education 2030

For educational institutions:

At the core of OE 2030 are unbundling, abundance, networking, flexibility and personalised learning

Learning services will not necessary be for free, under an open license and accessible to all

HE institutions will not disappear but need to "redefine" their role in OE landscape – existing funding and quality mechanisms not sustainable

Policies:

• need to cater for # more versions of opening and closing

• Knowledge and education as a "public good"

• EC policy response: "Opening up Education" COM 2013 (654 final), 25 Sept 2013 featuring 23 Actions

Thank you for your attention!

yves.punie@ec.europe.eu