Operational Modeling The way to go

MOHID consortium

Present situation

• Daily forecasts :– 3D hydrodynamics;– 2D biogeochemical processes;

• Boundary conditions:– Open :

• barotropic fluxes forced by tide and wind;• Null gradient for temperature and salinity for the 3D solution;• Climatologic values for the 2D solution;

– Surface : wind forecasts of MM5 (9 km resolution) for a point SW of Cascais;

– Land : • Flow measure in Santarém with a phase error of 1 day;• Climatological biogeochemical values;

Operational Team

• Day to Day:– Rodrigo Fernandes (Model and field data

management);– Susana Nunes (Model operation and validation);

• Development – Ângela Canas (validation and data assimilation);– Guillaum Riflet (downscalling and coastal model

implementation);

2 years of life

• Successes:– The numerical model is highly stable;

– The hydrodynamic variability is well reproduced for the time scales of the order of tide or bigger;

– The web interface is also very stable and easy to work with;

– Validations of the biogeochemical forecasts with classical samples and sensors show the ability of the model to reproduce the main trends;

2 years of life

• Improvements going on or to do in the near future:

– Web page in English;– Interface able to make the runs and graphics automatically;– Definition of the validation methodology;– Validation quarterly reports;– Implement the MohidV4 version;– Run the biogeochemical model in 3D;– Coastal results (SST, Salinity, velocities);– In the remote sensing link put SST results (SST image +

correspondent model result + the daily animation);

And next ?

• 3D Coastal model with open boundaries defined with large scale solutions (climatologic, Mercator, Hycom);

• Variable in space atmosphere forcing;

• First experiences to predict the flow and biogeochemical parameters concentrations associated with rivers;

• Operational model :– Should be a common effort;

• Every body should give at least 10% of is time : validating, developing, divulgating or doing proposals

– Should be a tool to improve our knowledge and our efficiency

What is my vision

What is my vision

Barriers to overcome:

Large scale validation:

Remote sensing and historical data - Guillaume

ESEOO – Silvia

Geology data - Carla

Solution coherence in long time scales (Ricardo)

Primary production (Ricardo , ???)

Connection to emergence response systems (Rodrigo and Sibila)

Maestro : Henrique and José

What is my vision

Sea Surface Temperature : 11/2003:2/2004

Barriers to overcome:

Validation and Data assimilation : Ângela, Madalena, Susana, Pedro F. and Sofia

Data management : Rodrigo and Susana

Field Data sensors : Diogo

Complex biogeochemical processes (ex: HAB’s) : Marcos, Susana, Luís and Sofia

Maestros : Pina and Paulo

What is my vision

Barriers to overcome:

Data assimilation : Ângela

Data management : Rodrigo

Field Data sensors : Diogo

Nutrient loads : Pedro C., Filipa

Aquifers response : Pedro G.

Biogeochemical processes in the soil, rivers and reservoirs : Sandra, Pedro C. and Pedro G.

Maestros : Frank and Adélio

What is my vision

Barriers to overcome:

Data assimilation : Ângela

Data management : Rodrigo

Field Data sensors : Diogo

Air-sea interaction : Rosa

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) : ????

Link with meteogalicia : Rosa

Maestros : Rosa

What is yours ?

Macro Goals

• Unified Data base structure for all field data and model results (June 2005);

• 3D model couple to Mercator (January 2005);

• Tagus and Douro catchments flow and nutrient forecasts (June 2006).

• Volunteers to help me to do a more detail table ?