operational ultraviolet forecast system for south america...
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Operational Ultraviolet Forecast System for South America: Analysis, Evaluation and Measurements
Simone Sievert da CostaMarcos Rodrigues, Marcelo de Paula Correa * and Juan C. Ceballos
Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC)
Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
*Research is under development in collaboration wit h University of Itajuba - MG
TALK OUTLINE� Operational UV Forecast System at CPTEC-INPE
� Webpage (tool for communication / products)� method used for the UV index calculation
� Evaluation of UV index� Experimental campaign at Sao Paulo city
� Temporal and Spatial variation of UV index over Bra zil� Important information for health sectors to develop
campaign to reduce diseases related sun exposure
� Who are the users/ how information has been used
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br
Satellite webpage of CPTEC-INPE
Portuguese version
Spanish VersionCollaboration with Universidad Nacional de Asunción, Paraguay
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/uv/
What kind of information is provided on the website?
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/uv/
Ozone Concentration NCEP+ Forecast
(Long et al., 1996-BAMS)Geopotential – 500 & 100 hPa
Temperature at 50 hPa
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/uv/
Forecast of max UV index without clouds at solar noon (recommended by WHO)
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/uv/
UV index every 30 min. clear and cloudy.(called UVI Instantaneous)
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/uv/
How UV index is estimated?Radiative Transfer is developed by Correa et al. (2004) based on Eddington approx.
Input data into RT-Model • Ozone Concentration (from NOAA);• Cloud (cloud classification from GOES);• Surface pressure (from ETA 20 km) , • Background aerosol (δ=0,2 and ω=0,9)• Surface reflectance = 0,3 (urban areas, EPA, WMO-1999)
∫ ∫−
Ψ+=π
λλλλ φµτφµπ
ωτφµτ
τφµµ2
0
1
1
)'(cos);,(4
);,();,(
ddPIId
dI o
The monocromatic irradiance from 280 to 400 nm
Erythemal action spectrum (from MacKinlay and Diffey, 1986)
1 IUV ≡ Sλ = 25 mW/m2
[W/m2]∫ λε= λλ
nm400
nm280
dIS
Clear sky UV index
Daily and Seasonal Variation
UV index instantaneous – 10:30 UTC
March
September December
extremeVery high
highmoderate
low
June
extremeVery high
highmoderate
low
UV index instantaneous – 11:30 UTC
extremeVery high
highmoderate
low
December
JuneMarch
September
UV index instantaneous – 12:00 UTC
extremeVery high
highmoderate
low
December
JuneMarch
September
UV index instantaneous – 14:00 UTC
extremeVery high
highmoderate
low
December
JuneMarch
September
UV index instantaneous – 15:00 UTC
extremeVery high
highmoderate
low
December
JuneMarch
September
UV index instantaneous – 16:00 UTC
extremeVery high
highmoderate
low
December
JuneMarch
September
UV index instantaneous – 17:30 UTC
extremeVery high
highmoderate
low
December
JuneMarch
September
UV index instantaneous – 18:00 UTC
extremeVery high
highmoderate
low
December
JuneMarch
September
High 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9Medium 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5Low 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2
Fog 0.4Rain 0.2
Cloud Effect on IUV• According to Vanicek et al. ( 2000)
UVIcld= CMF * UVIclr ,
where CMF is Cloud Modification Factor that depends on cloud type and cloud cover
Vanicek et al. (2000)
Cloud Effect on IUV• GOES Cloud Classification:
Surface CMF = 1.00Cirrus CMF = 0.90Cumulus CMF = 0.70Stratus CMF = 0.50Deep convection CMF = 0.30/ multi- layers
Cloud Modification Factor
Clouds classification based on GOES Ch 1&4 (Ceballos and Bottino, 2002)
Cloud Effect on UVIClear sky UVI GOES12 cloud class. Cloudy UVI
Observation from the project entitled Study on the effect of atmospheric and geographical factors on ultraviolet radiation in Sã o PauloFunded by FAPESP n°04/00937-3Coordinated by Dr. Marcelo Corrêa and Dr. Juan Ceballos
What is the performance of UV index estimative?
Biometer UV501ASolar Light (280 – 320 nm )
biologically effective ultraviolet radiationmeasurement
Study area UV index
Observational data:Source: Measurements at São Paulo city, Period: June/2005 - March/2007 -Projeto UVSP (Corrêa et al.)
Estimatives:Source: CPTEC-INPE
Comparison estimative v. observation UV index
Project PIBIC: Ultraviolet Index Evaluation and Monito ring over São Paulo, Domingues de Paula Domingues de Paula e Costa (2009)e Costa (2009)
Média do IUV para as 9:00 hs
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
Janeiro Abril Julho Outubro
Meses
IUV
Obs
SatMean UV index 09:00 Local TimeMédia do IUV para as 12:00 hs
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
Janeiro Abril Julho Outubro
Meses
IUV
Obs
SatMean UV index 12:00 Local TimeMédia do IUV para as 15:00 hs
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
Janeiro Abril Julho Outubro
Meses
IUV
Obs
EstMean UV index 15:00 Local Time
Comparison estimative v. observation
Estimative Observation Est . – Obs.
Time mean std. mean std. mean std
cloudy sky clear sky
Project PIBIC: Ultraviolet Index Evaluation and Monito ring over São Paulo, Domingues de Paula Domingues de Paula e Costa (2009)e Costa (2009)
Who are the users?Education Program on UV risk (Ribeirao Preto, SP).
São Paulo State Program on Protection of ozone layer of
EPAGI/CIRAM - Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e extensão rural de Santa Catarina/Centro de informações de recursos ambientais e de Hidrometeorologia de SC.
UV index is available together with other variables of weather forecast
Mato Grosso State heath office
Bahia Meteorological Center, environmental office
FUNDACENTRO –Foundation Specialized Service of Safety and Work MedicineIn Santa Catarina
� Long, C.S. et al., "Ultraviolet IndexForecasts Issued by the National WeatherService," Bull. Am. Meteorological Soc.77, 729-748 (1996)
Role of Meteorology
Fonte: Global Solar UV Index – A practical guide. OMS, 2003
Estimado versus Observado
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Observations from biometer
Est
imat
ive
Comparison estimative v. observation UV index
Project PIBIC: Ultraviolet Index Evaluation and Monito ring over São Paulo, Domingues de Paula Domingues de Paula e Costa (2009)e Costa (2009)
2005
UV index instantaneous – 20:00 UTC
extremeVery high
highmoderate
low
December
JuneMarch
September
IUV - PORTO ALEGRE
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ago/
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VClear sky Cloudy sky
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IUV - SÃO PAULO
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CÉU S/ NUVENS CÉU C/ NUVENS
2Clear sky Cloudy sky
IUV - SALVADOR
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CÉU S/ NUVENS CÉU C/ NUVENS
3Clear sky Cloudy sky
IUV - BÉLEM
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Clear sky Cloudy sky