opportunities for growth · operating capabilities ... source : ons consumer trends survey 2009 %...
TRANSCRIPT
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Opportunities for Growth
Analyst Seminar – 21 January 2010
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Introduction
Focusing on medium term direction
Key underlying beliefs:- Eating out as a market has long term attraction- The drinking out occasion is in long term decline- Mitchells & Butlers well positioned to create value
Growth strategy is an evolution of existing plans
Opportunities for growth
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Mitchells & Butlers estate as at FY09
Total
Value
Suburban
City & Country
1,970
746
491
577
19.8*
16.9
23.4
20.9
# of pubs AWT, £k
Company EBITDA per managed pub £223k* UK managed pubs
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Our opportunities for growth
Same outlet sales and profit growth
Sustainable margin delivered through strong operating capabilities
Increased number of pubs from variety of sources with associated scale benefits
Evolution of our strategy with greater brand focus
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Business dynamics Drinks-led Food-led
outlet outlet
COGS
Employment
EBITDA
AWT £17k
AWT £22k
25%27%
19%
23%
31%
33%
26%
16%
EBITDA margin 2% pts lowerCash EBITDA 19% higher
Other costs
Higher profits from food-led pubs
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Our brands and formatsExpansion
Maintain Selective
Community pubs
Townpubs
Bars & venues
Ember Inns
Scream Hollywood Bowl
608 sites
Active
Browns Miller & Carter
O’Neill’sNicholson’s
All Bar OneMetro Professionals
309 sites
Focus on six brands for active expansion
Toby Carvery
Vintage Inns
Harvester
Premium Country Dining
Sizzling Pub Company
CrownCarveries
897 sites
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Statement of intent
“Developing Mitchells & Butlers to become the UK’s preferred choice for informal eating out, with great brandsthat satisfy key customer occasions,
to grow shareholder value”
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Agenda for today
Great brands drive like-for-likes
Strong operating capabilities
Headroom for growth
Growing shareholder value
Adam Martin
Adam Fowle
Adam Fowle
Jeremy Townsend
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Drinksled
Local PubsLocal Pubs
City Centre
High StPubs & Bars
High StPubs & Bars
City CentreRestaurantsCity CentreRestaurants
PubRestaurants
PubRestaurants
Residential
Supply-driven market map
Foodled
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Drinking out
Eating out
Eating and drinking out marketProportion of household expenditure on eating and drinking out
40%
60%
64%
36%
Increasing momentum towards eating out
1970 2008
Source : ONS Consumer Trends Survey 2009
%
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Eating and drinking out expenditure
Eating anddrinking out
£72bn
Drinking out£29bn
Eating out£43bn
Re-fuelling Social diningHigh energy Quiet drink
Market shaped by consumer occasions Source : ONS Consumer Trends Survey 2009
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Price dimension
Price signals market positioning- Eating out and drinking out is a social occasion- Most people want to be with “people like me”- Price plays a role in grouping consumers
Price sensitivity of different occasions
Price is an important factor in purchase
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New market maps: drinks-led
High energy
Drinks-led
Quiet drink
Higher
Lower
Priceper
drink
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New market maps: food-led
Re-fuelling Socialdining
High energy
Drinks-led Food-led
Higher
Lower
Quiet drink
Priceper meal
Higher
Lower
Priceper
drink
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Re-fuelling Social dining
High energy
Drinks-led Food-led
Market map
Quiet drink
Differing levels of attractiveness
Higher
Priceper
drink
Higher
Priceper meal
Low
Medium High
Medium High
High
Lower Lower
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Mitchells & Butlers market map
Expansion brands focused on growing segments
Drinks-led Food-ledPremium Country Dining
Browns
Miller & Carter
Vintage Inns
Toby Carvery
Harvester
Crown Carveries
Sizzling pub co
Metro Professionals
All Bar One
Community pubs
Town pubs
Bars & venues
Scream
Ember Inns
Nicholson’sO’Neill’s
Higher
Priceper
drink
Higher
Priceper meal
Re-fuelling Social dining
High energy Quiet drink
Lower Lower
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Value
Two active expansion brands in each channel
Premium Country Dining
Browns
Miller & Carter
Vintage Inns
Toby Carvery
Harvester
Crown Carveries
Sizzling pub co
Metro Professionals
All Bar One
Community pubs
Town pubs
Bars & venues
Scream
Ember Inns
Nicholson’sO’Neill’s
Re-fuelling Social dining
High energy Quiet drink
Drinks-led Food-led
Higher
Priceper
drink
Higher
Priceper meal
Lower Lower
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Suburban
Premium Country Dining
Browns
Miller & Carter
Vintage Inns
Toby Carvery
Harvester
Crown Carveries
Sizzling pub co
Metro Professionals
All Bar One
Community pubs
Town pubs
Bars & venues
Scream
Ember Inns
Nicholson’sO’Neill’s
Re-fuelling Social dining
High energy Quiet drink
Drinks-led Food-led
Higher
Priceper
drink
Higher
Priceper meal
Lower Lower
Two active expansion brands in each channel
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City & Country
Premium Country Dining
Browns
Miller & Carter
Vintage Inns
Toby Carvery
Harvester
Crown Carveries
Sizzling pub co
Metro Professionals
All Bar One
Community pubs
Town pubs
Bars & venues
Scream
Ember Inns
Nicholson’sO’Neill’s
Re-fuelling Social dining
High energy Quiet drink
Drinks-led Food-led
Higher
Priceper
drink
Higher
Priceper meal
Lower Lower
Two active expansion brands in each channel
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Customer satisfaction Proportion of guests satisfied with recent visit
87% 88% 89% 90% 92% 92%
PremiumCountryDining
Toby Carvery
Sizzling Pub
Company
VintageInns
Harvester CrownCarveries
Growth brands appeal strongly to customers
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Brand marketing
Opportunity to grow usage
High consumer acceptance
Plenty of non users
Good conversion to loyal customers
Brand scale enables advertising
E.g. strong ROI on Toby Sunday advertising, +6% sales
Brand advertising works
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Brand performance
Stronger performance from expansion brands
21
17
285
226
Maintain Expansion
Average AWT, FY09 Average EBITDA per outlet, FY09
Maintain Expansion
+27% +26%
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Summary
Eating out growing share of household expenditure
New market map to reflect customer occasions and price points
Twelve expansion brands positioned for like-for-like sales growth
Exposure to growing segments
Proven customer appeal
Superior financial performance
Further potential for like-for-like sales growth
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Agenda for today
Great brands drive like-for-likes
Strong operating capabilities
Headroom for growth
Growing shareholder value
Adam Martin
Adam Fowle
Adam Fowle
Jeremy Townsend
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Serviceand sales
Operationalefficiencyand profit
The constant challenge
Daily Reporting
Balancing service excellence with cost focus
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Bottom25%
Top 25%
Customer satisfaction drives sales
Sales growth by level of customer satisfaction
-4.2%
+6.6%
+3.4%
+1.9%
Bottom25%
Top 25%
FY09 sales growth by customer satisfaction quartile, %
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Drivers of customer satisfaction
Average across our main brands, %
Environment
Product
22
41
38
Service
Our people are core to customer satisfaction
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Different service models
Full table service
Higher cost
Matching customer needs with economics
Crown Carveries
Premium Country Dining
Self service
Lower cost
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Service model evolution
400 self service taps to be rolled out by end April
Continuous improvement of service model
Drink sales
+6%
Customer satisfaction with
drink service
+13%
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Our people
Recruiting the right people and matching service models - 60% of managers recruited internally
Training people- 1,400+ kitchen colleagues have enrolled in NVQs in the
past year
Retaining people – increasing stability- 80% of managers have more than one year’s service- 65% of kitchen managers have been with us for more than
one year
Recruiting, training and retaining underpin great service
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Operational controls
Employment and product costs are £1.1bn pa
Product costs- Focusing on waste- Menu management
Productivity- Labour scheduling- Employment cost constant over five years as food
mix increased from 30% to 41% of sales
Relentless focus on operational controls
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Operational controls – FY09
14 million more meals
3 million more drinks
700,000 fewer staff hours
Moving from weekly to daily monitoring
Daily operational controls enhance margin management
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Customer feedback – the essential measure
1,400 outlets run a regular guest feedback programme
Over 600,000 guest responses collected in 2009
Delivering sustainable improvements in service
Continuous feedback helps shape the business
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Summary
Balancing service excellence with cost focus
Customer satisfaction +3%
Sales up +3.3%
Net margin improvement
Serviceand sales
Operationalefficiencyand profit
Daily Reporting
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Agenda for today
Great brands drive like-for-likes
Strong operating capabilities
Headroom for growth
Growing shareholder value
Adam Martin
Adam Fowle
Adam Fowle
Jeremy Townsend
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Overview
Potential to double each of our active expansion brands
3 sources of pub growth opportunity- Internal conversions- Single site acquisitions- Industry consolidation
The pace of growth is in our control
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57111 133 172 197 227
700670
370
McDon
ald’s
Weth
ersp
oon
Pizza H
ut
Pizza E
xpre
ss
Sizzlin
g Pub
Co.
Vintag
e Inn
s
Harve
ster
Toby
Car
very
Crown C
arve
ries
Premium
Cou
ntry
DiningRelative brand size
Significant potential to increase brand size
Mitchells & Butlers brands
Outlet numbers1,200
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Multiple brands in a local market
Bournemouth area
6 Harvesters: all AWTs well above average
21 other pubs: combined AWT at Mitchells & Butlers average
Far from the limit of saturation
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Internal conversions
Single site acquisitions
Major industry consolidation opportunities
Pub growth potential
Total opportunities
c.150
c. 400
700+ c.1,250+
Significant pools of opportunities
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£18k
£11k
Conversions from Maintain to Expansion
Strong returns from conversions
AWT
+60%
EBITDA per outlet
Pre-conversion
Post-conversion
Pre-conversion
Post-conversion
+63% £279k
£171k ROI of 25%
Note: 89 conversions from FY05-FY09
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150 internal conversion opportunities
From Maintain To Expansion
Community pubs
Town pubsScream
Sizzling Pub Co Nicholson’s
O’Neill’s Metro Professionals
Bars and venues
Large pool of conversion opportunities within estate
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Single site acquisitions
Single site acquisition track record is strong
£28k
Average AWT Average EBITDA per outlet
£398k
ROI of 13%
Note: 14 sites, FY07-FY09
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c. 400 single site acquisition opportunities
Large pool of single site acquisition opportunities
Retail park locations, expanding our current base of 20 pubs
New development sites
Single pub sites
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Industry consolidation – 249 pubs
AWT EBITDA per outlet
Pre-conversion
Post-conversion
Pre-conversion
Post-conversion
Brands add value to portfolio acquisitions
£290k
£197k
+48%£22k
£17k
+30%
ROI of 12%
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Internal conversions
Single site acquisitions
Major industry consolidation opportunities
Significant pools of potential sites
Total opportunities
c.150
c. 400
700+ c.1,250+
Growth not dependent on consolidation
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Agenda for today
Great brands drive like-for-likes
Strong operating capabilities
Headroom for growth
Growing shareholder value
Adam Martin
Adam Fowle
Adam Fowle
Jeremy Townsend
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Reduced debt levels
Feb 08£m
Sept 09£m
(2,600)
(383)
+£167m
(2,910)
(595)
+£105m
Net debt
Unsecured drawings
Facility headroom
Our financial position is stable
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Timing and pace of expansion
Opportunity to grow shareholder value
Cash generative business
We will assess investment opportunities as they arise – ensuring high returns
To be balanced with:- Pension funding requirements- 2010 facility refinancing- Resumption of dividend payments
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Potential capital expenditure
20
120
140 40-60
120
160-180
FY10
Expansionary capex
Anticipated future capital expenditure
Maintenance capex
Conversions £10m p.a.
Single site acquisitions £30-50m p.a.
Significant expansion within our control
£m
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Opportunity for value creation
Rising food mix offset by higher sales per outlet
Estate evolution increases proportion of high EBITDA outlets
Greater purchasing power offsets costs inflation
Increased scale reduces overheads asa proportion of sales
Continued strong capital returns
Sales driven growth with sustainable net margins
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Summary
“Developing Mitchells & Butlers to become the UK’s preferred choice for informal
eating out, with great brands that satisfy key customer occasions, to grow
shareholder value”
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Questions & Answers
Analyst Seminar – 21 January 2010