opportunities for tne in sub-saharan africa guy doughty consultant [email protected]...
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Opportunities in Africa
• Overall average student mobility has remained steady at >2%
• Grew through increases in enrolment, not in mobility rates
• Many of those conditions are changing , and increasing competition
• Africa is a region where there is huge potential –
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Opportunities in Africa
Measured by:• Demographic trends• Lack of domestic public capacity to fulfil
demand • Economic Patterns
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SSA lags behind in tertiary enrolment
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
18.120.0
22.524.0
25.9 27.1
EAP ECA LAC MNA SAS SSA WLD
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, July 2011Note: SAS 2009 is 2008 data.
Gro
ss E
nrol
men
t Ra
te. T
erti
ary
(ISCE
D 5
& 6
). To
tal (
%)
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Shortfall in Nigerian capacity…Current regional shortfall of 9 million?
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Demographic Trends
• By 2020 – 4 countries will account for over 50% of the world’s 18 22 population: India, China, US and Indonesia‐
• Further 25% will come from Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Philippines, Mexico, Egypt and Vietnam
• By end of century half of 18-24 year olds in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Significant decline for China (over 20m), Russia, Germany and South Korea
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Africa will be the fastest growing region over the next 40 years. All the Growth will come from Sub-Saharan Africa
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Key sources of tertiary age students in 2020
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Change and decline in key markets
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Additionally…
• Many countries have rapid economic growth: latest figures 13 of top 30 in the region.
• World Bank (and others) stress the importance of tertiary education for future development
• Growing m/c – with a willingness to fund tertiary education privately
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It all leads to the need for international collaboration:
• To meet demand, to grow and develop, need large expansion of tertiary opportunities
• Constrained choices• Increased opportunities across a range of
areas:– Increased recruitment– TNE– Research– Capacity building
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The benefits of in-country delivery
• Income generation• Deepening internationalisation • As a feeder – part of recruitment strategy:
– Increase size of potential market – way to increase undergraduate enrolments
– Academic planning– Better prepare the students
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Finally:
• BIS, BC priority markets for recruitment/TNE include only Botswana and Mauritius in the ‘average opportunities’ category, and Nigeria in the below average opportunities’ category
• In fact, Nuffic note, many of major destinations have very similar target markets – going to be pretty crowded!
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However…
But little attention to Africa – aside from Nigeria (forecast 8.3% PG growth to 2024 – BC Oct 2014)• Lack of existing TNE• Regulatory regimes and government policies• Economic factors• Social Factors
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Why hasn’t there been more TNE?
• Cultural heritage – Francophone, Anglophone, Lusaphone
• Instability• Low income• Difficulties of ‘doing business’• Regulatory regimes• Fears over academic quality and • Difficulties of finding partners
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And 7 of the top 20 in Africa?
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Details:
• Total 2010/11 = 102,140 increase 20% previous year.
• decline in distance learning down to 13355 from 14515 the previous year.
• Dominance of OB/ACCA particularly strong:• of 503,985 the Oxford Brookes partnership
accounts for 239,895 (47.7%).• In SSA: of 102,140 - 82,600 are with the Oxford
Brookes Partnership – a staggering 81%.
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Country of activity
TNE 10/11(ex OxB)
TNE09/10
TNE08/09 % Diff 08-10 2011 int students
1, Nigeria 22,425
(4,5150 16,930 15,670 43% 38,851
2, Ghana15755
(1,895) 13640 13420 17% 7,845
3, Kenya 10,980(1,740) 9,060 8,750 25% 13,286
4, Mauritius 8,775
(1,570) 6,630 6,440 36% 7,631
5, Egypt 8,720
(8,405) 7,455 6,660 31% 11,627
6. Zambia 7,355
(1060) 6,555 6,400 15% 4,951
7. Uganda 6,880(810) 5,765 5,605 23% 3,364
8.South Africa 4,640
(3035) 3,930 2,870 62% 6,166
9. Zimbabwe 4,545(290) 3,215 3,115 46% 19,658
10. Ethiopia 4,380(810) 3,005 3,030 45% 5,093
11. Botswana 3,270
(1405) 3,065 1,800 82% 8,562
12. Malawi 3,145(410) 2,620 2,610 20% 2,053
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TNE in Africa
• HESA statistics indicate traditional forms relatively undeveloped:– Few IBCs– Few franchise or validations – notable exceptions
in Ghana, Kenya, Botswana and Nigeria– Most examples are DL/on-line with or without
tuition support – Uni of London, Heriot-Watt– Dominated by non-degree awarding bodies: ACCA
(80), ABE (160), NCC (60), NCUK
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Finding Partners
• Match aims and values:• Public sector – research, training, capacity-
building etc – but depending on policy environment little incentive for franchise etc.
• But, for feeder colleges – good private schools used to teaching that level
• Sizeable and developing private sector college and university system – many thirsty for partnerships of various types
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Regulatory Environment
• Patience, resilience, willingness to engage and develop relationships, willingness to work with local strategic priorities
• Not a significant problem for foundation level programmes or programmes that don’t lead to a degree (ABE, NCC, NCUK)
• One of explanations of on-line/tuition support model
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Academic Quality
• Key concern – fear of degree mills. • Clearly issue: recent eg of University of Wales
indicates what can go wrong. • Always a potential for franchise/validation
programmes• Easiest method to guarantee the fundamental:
comparability of standards is to adopt the London Uni, ABE, Heriot-Watt approach – curriculum, assessments and marking by the awarding body.
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But, recent examples show it is possible:
• Coventry University – demonstrates huge numbers possible for right programmes in right institution and pricing
• Sunderland in Kenya• Kaplan International College in Lagos• Right partners, long-term view from outset,
investment in quality and partner development
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Case Study: KICL
• CNAU – delivers first year of programme with guaranteed progression – range of top quality partners
• Invested in premises• Worked closely with authorities• Academics with international qualifications• Quality regime based on module leader in NEU
responsible (in collaboration) for curriculum and assessment
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• 180 students – many from Amnesty programme and academically mixed
• Many operational/academic culture challenges – need for adaptation to local requirements
• Created an environment where students developed remarkably quickly
• 160 were able to complete the programme – 89% - and 100% visa success rate
• Chose a wide range of majors…not 70% business. • Tracking their progress through CNAU feedback has been
extremely positive
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Source: Standard Bank
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