opportunity day opportunity day -...

36
IRPC Public Company Limited 17 May 2016 OPPORTUNITY DAY 1Q/2016

Upload: vuongkhuong

Post on 06-Apr-2018

220 views

Category:

Documents


4 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 2: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Disclaimer

This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use byprospective investors / analysts in the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy orcompleteness of such information. By accepting this material each recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability forany representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation.

The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.

2

Page 3: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

1Q/16 Highlight

Operation & Financial Performance

Industry Outlook

CEO’s Agenda

1

2

3

4

Agenda

3

Page 4: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

13.1 14.7 13.7

(0.5) (3.5) (1.2)(0.02)

(1.3)(1.5)

12.5 9.9 11.0

49,941 45,470 38,250

YoY 23%

QoQ 16%

Highlight: 1Q/16 PerformanceOverview of Business

Net Sales(net excise)

Dubai

Unit: USD/BBL

3,832

447

3,014 Net income

Unit: MB

Unit: MB

4

1Q/15 1Q/16

YoY 21%

QoQ 574%

1. In 1Q/16, average Dubai price dropped to $30.4/bblfrom $40.7/bbl in 4Q/15, driven by the global supply glut situation, the new supply from Iran and the China’s economic slow down.

2. Net sales were 38,250 MB in 1Q/16, decreasing by 16% from 45,470 MB in 4Q/15 due to a decrease of 15% in the product prices and 1% in the sales volume.

3. Market GIM in 1Q/16 was $13.7/bbl, declining by $1.0/bbl compared to $14.7/bbl in 4Q/15 because of a lower product spreads offset by benefit of Everest program. With the lower stock loss, Accounting GIM was $11.0/bbl, rising from $9.9/bbl in 4Q/15.

4. Net profit was 3,014 MB in 1Q/16, increasing by 574% compared to 447 MB in 4Q/15.

4Q/15

Market GIM

Accounting GIM

Oil hedging

Unit: $/bbl

YoY 12%

QoQ 11%

Stock gain/(loss)& LCM

40.730.4

51.9

Page 5: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM

5

13.4 13.5

11.6

13.1 14.7

13.7

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

1Q15 4Q15 1Q16

Benchmark GIM MKT GIM

$/bbl

* Benchmark GIM (Fixed Yield) calculated based on IRPC’s average yield during Jan-Apr 2015 (crude run @182 KBD)

*

Page 6: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Financial Highlight: 1Q/16 VS 1Q/15

• Crude intake of 17.0 M.bbl (187 KBD), increased from 1Q/15 by 0.8 M.bbl (7 KBD) or 5%

• Market GIM $13.7/bbl, increased by $0.6/bbl or 5% from higher spread of $0.3/bbl

and THB depreciation

• Everest increased $0.3/bbl or 243 MB

• Stock loss & Hedging + LCM was $-2.7/bbl (-1,632 MB), rose by $-2.1/bbl (-1,340 MB)

• Selling & OPEX decreased by 79 MB mainly from insurance, maintenance and

Corporate Image expenses decreased

• Income tax decreased : recording of deferred tax assets of 2015 outstanding net losses

821 MB and RTT liquidation 200 MB and lower of income tax expense 507 MB

• Others expenses increased: There was the reversal of doubtful account 2,823 MB in 1Q/15 while loss from

investment decreased 52 MB and financial cost reduced 311 MB

Exchange rate (THB/USD)As ofDec 31, 14 33.11 Mar 31, 15 32.70 Dec 31, 15 36.25 Mar 31, 16 35.41Average 1Q/15 = 32.79 1Q/16 = 35.83

Average Dubai price 1Q/15 = $51.89/bbl1Q/16 = $30.42/bbl

6

Unit : MB

Net Profit1Q/15

Net Profit1Q/16

Volume Increase

Margin Increase

Stock loss& Hedging

+ LCM

OthersEverest Project

Selling Exp. + OPEX

FX. Gain

3,832 341

678 243 1,340

79 163

1,528 2,510

3,014

Tax

Page 7: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Highlight: Everest Project

7

Procurement area

Commercial area

Operations area

Corporate area

• Optimize crude selection, product blending and hydrocarbon stock

• Enhance throughput & yield by adjusting production unit parameter

• Maximize energy efficiency and reduce loss in production units

• Improve efficiency and effectiveness of maintenance

• Reduce production unit downtime and minimize operating days lost

• Maximize commercial value generation from refined petroleum and petrochemical products

• Optimize timing, duration and cost of turnaround

• Spend optimization with key expenditure categories

• Optimize small CAPEX spend for highest value expenditures

• Develop capabilities to sustain both performance and health

• Improve organizational health practices for top quartile outcomes

• Optimize planning and policies to ensure continued productivity enhancement

2,083

549

399

385

19

177

47

0.5

3,416 243Total

Target

Y2016

Actual

1Q2016Unit: MB

Page 8: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Highlight: 1Q/16 Update

UHV Project Progress: COD in May 2016

8

• IRPC – Darby Trading entered into long term sales agreement of Slack Wax in order to expand into the US and European markets

IRPC’s Achievement

• Top Company Awards

2016

Marketing

• TPM Excellence Award 2015, Category A

• Moody’s changed IRPC’s rating outlook to stable and confirmed its Ba1 rating on 18 March 2016,

reflects improvement in operating performance and earnings

Moody’s Change Rating to Stable Outlook

• Thailand Quality Class Award 2015

PPE+PPC Project Progress: 32% as of Mar 2016

Page 9: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

1Q/16 Highlight

Operation & Financial Performance

Industry Outlook

CEO’s Agenda

1

2

3

4

Agenda

9

Page 10: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

10

Petroleum Performance

4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16 Change QoQ

Dubai 74.4 51.9 61.3 49.7 40.7 30.4 -25%

Naphtha Spread -5.1 1.4 -0.5 -1.2 7.1 6.1 -14%

ULG95 Spread 13.4 15.3 19.8 19.3 18.7 18.8 1%

Gas Oil Spread 16.0 16.3 13.7 10.8 13.8 9.6 -30%

Fuel Oil Spread -5.6 -1.8 -3.5 -8.1 -6.5 -5.2 20%

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dubai Price and Petroleum Spread$/bbl

Dubai

Fuel Oil

ULG95 Spread

Naphtha Spread

Gas Oil Spread

Naphtha spread: dropped

due to higher supply from

ME and India, plus more

supply from Europe to Asia.

ULG95 spread: rose owing

to increasing demand in

ASEAN and Australia

Gas Oil spread: dropped

as more supply from China

and ME despite demand

expanded from India, and

Vietnam and regional

refineries’ S/D.

Fuel oil spread: rose

from higher demand with

lower of product price

Crude oil price: continued to move

down due to its oversupply. Plus,

more pressure came from the excess

supply from Iran and China’s

economic stagnation.

Page 11: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

11

Petroleum Performance

4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16 Change QoQ

Fuel Oil 437 318 367 265 217 160 -26%

150BS Spread 776 720 740 833 815 844 4%

500SN Spread 493 369 399 514 471 442 -6%

Asphalt Spread 85 23 20 83 96 -7 -107%

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Fuel Oil Price and Lube Base Oil Spread$/MT

Fuel Oil

150BS Spread

500SN Spread

Asphalt Spread

Lube base oil spread :

moved down due to the

oversupply and the

replacement of Group II.

Asphalt spread:

dropped due to the

higher demand in 4Q15

especially from Europe,

Vietnam and domestic

demand.

Page 12: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

1.2 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.8

7.0 7.6

7.4 7.3 7.6

1.3

1.4 1.5 1.4

1.6 0.8

1.0 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.2

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

10.5 12.3 11.4 11.5 11.8

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

60% 57% 61% 53% 50%

19% 19%30%

34%27%

7% 10%

9% 10%

9%

14% 15% 3%14%

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

Others

Domestic

Far East

Middle East

Premium over Dubai($/bbl)

Petroleum Group : Production

1Q/16, the crude intake was 187 KBD (87% utilization), higher than the rate in 4Q/15 because of the maintenance shutdown in ADU1 during 4Q/15.

Sweet Crude volume was 92 KBD in 1Q/16, rising by 11 KBD from 4Q/15 due to the higher Products spread of Light Distillates.

The utilization rate of Lube Base Oil plant in 1Q/16 was 100%, reducing from 107% in 4Q/15 due to the maintenance shutdown in Lube Unit.

Remark : Excluding internal use quantity 12

Crude Run (KBD)

84% 89% 82% 84% 87%

180 192 177 181 187

% Utilization

Crude Intake

2.00 2.26 2.69 2.71 4.12

Refinery

Unit : Mbbl

LPG & Others

Naphtha

Gasoline

Diesel

Fuel oil Asphalt

Lube Base

1.0 0.8 0.9

1.0 1.0

0.9 0.9 0.9

0.9 0.8

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

Lube Base oil

Unit : Mbbl

1.9 1.8 1.81.9

1.8

Page 13: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Local

59%

Export

41%

Petroleum Group : Sales & GRM

Local

67%

Export

33%

1Q/16

Sales Distribution

1Q/16 : Petroleum sales volume decreased by 2% and the average product prices decreased by 20% compared to 4Q/15

The proportion of sales was 67% domestic and 33% export while it was 59% domestic and 41% export in 4Q/15. The higher domestic sales were mainly in Diesel and Asphalt products

Market GRM was $6.0/bbl (3,625 MB), decreasing by$1.1/bbl (628 MB) from 4Q/15 because of the lower spreadof refinery products.

4Q/15

13

Remark : Sales include products swap transaction with PTTGC /Lube include VGOHT sales during fire incident

Sales Volume & Revenue

12.9 14.2 13.3 13.7 13.2

2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0

15.4 16.1 15.1 15.5 15.2

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

Lube Base

Refinery

Unit : Mbbl

29,867 35,675 29,159 27,579 20,981 Refinery

6,391 5,314 4,818 4,492 3,985 Lube Base

36,258 40,989 33,977 32,071 24,966 Petroleum

Unit : MB

YoY 2% QoQ 2%

5.2 3.8

2.4

4.4 3.2

1.8

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.8

7.0

6.0

4.8

7.1

6.0

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

Lube Base

Refinery

Market GRM

Crude intake (Mbbl)

Unit : $/bbl

Top 5 Export Destination :Singapore, Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia, Burma

16.2 17.5 16.3 16.7 17.0

Page 14: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

14

Petrochemical Performance

4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16 Change QoQ

Naphtha 647 494 563 461 445 344 -23%

PP 1,451 1,149 1,356 1,126 1,003 944 -6%

HDPE 1,548 1,293 1,454 1,411 1,301 1,251 -4%

PP Spread 804 655 793 665 558 600 8%

HDPE Spread 901 799 891 950 856 907 6%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Polyolefins Price and Spread$/MT

Naphtha

PP Spread

PP

HDPE Spread

HDPE

PP spread: increased

because of the tight

supply owing to

refineries’ maintenance

shutdown in the region.

HDPE spread: moved

up because the

demand was stronger

due to the economic

recovery.

Remark : Petrochemical Product Prices calculated based on proportion of sales volume

Page 15: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

15

Petrochemical Performance

ABS spread:

was higher from

positive economic

outlook and the

healthy demand

expansion.

PS spread:

jumped up from

product prices

uptrend due to

increasing demand.

4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16 Change QoQ

Naphtha 647 494 563 461 445 344 -23%

ABS 1,766 1,562 1,658 1,433 1,202 1,198 0%

PS 1,463 1,168 1,494 1,267 1,098 1,153 5%

ABS Spread 1,119 1,068 1,095 972 757 854 13%

PS Spread 816 674 931 806 653 809 24%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Polystyrenics Price and Spread$/MT

Naphtha

PS Spread

PS

ABS Spread

ABS

Remark : Petrochemical Product Prices calculated based on proportion of sales volume

Page 16: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

16

Petrochemical Performance

4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16 Change QoQ

Naphtha 647 494 563 461 445 344 -23%

Toluene 830 621 766 635 624 568 -9%

MX 809 663 785 686 671 598 -11%

Toluene Spread 183 127 203 174 179 224 25%

MX Spread 162 169 222 225 226 254 12%

0

300

600

900

Aromatics Price and Spread$/MT

Naphtha

MX Spread

Mixed Xylene

Toluene Spread

Toluene

Toluene spread: moved

up from strong Chinese

import to restock low

inventory and unplanned

shutdown in Singapore.

Mixed Xylene spread:

moved up from PX demand

expansion and the major

producers in Korea and

Japan’s planned shutdown

in 2Q/16.

Remark : Petrochemical Product Prices calculated based on proportion of sales volume

Page 17: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

69 81 78 83 85

8 5 9

12 5

67 51 73 60 73

144 137

160 155 163

In 1Q/16, the utilization rate of Olefins was 94% When

compared to 89% in 4Q15, it increased by 5%. This was

because in 4Q/15, PP and HDPE units reduced the capacity

as DCC, feedstock unit, shutdown for the maintenance in

steam and boiler feed water system.

Petrochemical Group : Production

Remark : Utilization rate calculated based on the main products17

Aromatics & StyrenicsOlefins

52 55 67

52 55

125 133

127

121 134

177 188

194

173

189

Olefins

Polyolefins

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

88% 90% 90% 89% 94% % Utilization

84% 86% 78% 84% 88% Polyolefins

92% 94% 101% 94% 99% Olefins

Unit : KMT

Styrenics

Aromatics

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

87% 83% 97% 95% 99% % Utilization

88% 75% 97% 78% 92% Polystyrenics

95% 71% 106% 105% 97% Styrenics

83% 97% 92% 104% 106% Aromatics

Polystyrenics

Unit : KMT

In 1Q/16, the utilization rate was 99%, increasing from 95%

in 4Q/15 because ABS plant shutdown as planned for 11

days in 4Q/15

Page 18: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Local58%

Export42%

Petrochemical Group : Sales & PTF

Local60%

Export40%

Sales Distribution

1Q/164Q/15

18

1.0 2.1 2.7

1.9 1.8

4.0

4.8

5.5

4.7 4.9

5.0

6.9

8.2

6.6 6.7

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

Unit : $/bbl

Olefins &Polyolefins

Aromatics &Styrenics

156 146 159 172 182

205 197 206 184 196

361 343 365 356 378

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

Olefins &Polyolefins

Aromatics &Styrenics

Unit : KMT

Market PTF

Crude intake (Mbbl)

Sales Volume and Revenue

16.2 17.5 16.3 16.7 17.0

7,541 8,285 8,138 6,830 6,781 Olefins

5,355 5,446 5,780 5,737 5,690 Aro & Styrenics

12,896 13,731 13,918 12,567 12,471 Petrochemical

Unit : MB

YoY 5% QoQ 6%

91 180 211

149 140

258

302 322

299 308

187

251 274

231 233

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

Unit : $/MT

Olefins &Polyolefins

Aromatics &Styrenics

Market PTFFeed intake (KMT)

251 278 276 262 270 Olefins

188 202 211 216 222 Aromatics

Top 5 Export Destination :Singapore, Hongkong, Japan, China, Vietnam

Page 19: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

13.1 14.0 14.1 14.7 13.7

(0.5)

3.3

(3.1)

(3.5)

(1.2)

(0.0)

0.0

(0.7)(1.3)

(1.5)

12.5

17.3

10.3 9.9 11.0

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

Hedging Stk G/(L) & LCM Market GIM

7.0 6.0 4.8 7.1 6.0

5.0 6.9 8.2 6.6

6.7

1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0

1.0

13.1 14.014.1 14.7

13.7

1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

Power & Utility Petrochem Petroleum

• In 1Q/16, Market GIM was $13.7/bbl, rising by $0.6/bbl compared to $13.1 /bbl in 1Q/15.

- Product spreads $0.3/bbl

- Everest project $0.3/bbl

• Stock Loss & Oil Hedging + LCM was $ -2.7/bbl (-1,632 MB), rising by $2.1/bbl compared to $-0.6/bbl (-1,340 MB) in 1Q/15

• Accounting GIM was $11.0/bbl (6,691 MB), lower by $1.5/bbl from $12.5/bbl ( 6,722 MB) in 1Q/15.

Gross Integrated Margin (GIM)

19

• In 1Q/16, Market GIM was $13.7/bbl, dropping by $1.0/bbl compared to $14.7/bbl in 4Q/15.

- Product spreads $1.3/bbl

- Everest project $0.3/bbl

• Stock loss & Oil Hedging + LCM decreased by $2.1/bbl compared to $-4.8/bbl in 4Q/15

• Accounting GIM was $11.0/bbl (6,691 MB), higher by $1.1/bbl from $9.9/bbl ( 5,946 MB) in 4Q/15.

1Q/16 vs 4Q/151Q/16 vs 1Q/15

Accounting GIMMarket GIM

$/bbl $/bbl

Page 20: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Financial Highlight

Year

1Q/16 1Q/15 4Q/15 YoY QoQ 2015

Net sales 38,250 49,941 45,470 (23)% (16)% 199,595

Market GIM 8,323 7,014 8,804 19% (5)% 32,156

Stock Gain/(Loss) (1,002) (3,541) (1,985) 72% 50% (5,208)

LCM 290 3,259 (99) (91)% 393% 2,969

Oil Hedging Gain/(Loss) (920) (10) (774) N/A (19)% (1,176)

Accounting GIM 6,691 6,722 5,946 (0)% 13% 28,741

OPEX + Selling Exp. (3,250) (3,329) (4,207) 2% 23% (14,351)

Other Income 311 321 327 (3)% (5)% 2,643

EBITDA 3,752 3,714 2,066 1% 82% 17,033

Cost of Finance (196) (507) (221) 61% 11% (1,162)

FX Gain/(Loss) 338 174 117 94% 189% (1,288)

Impairment Gain/(Loss) - 24 (9) (100)% 100% 18

Investment Gain/(Loss) (33) (85) (30) 61% (10)% (157)

Other Expense (6) 2,824 (48) (100)% 88% 2,782

Income Tax 537 (992) (31) 154% N/A (2,346)

Net Profit 3,014 3,832 447 (21)% 574% 9,402

Unit : MBQuarter % Change

20

Page 21: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Financial Highlight: 1Q/16 VS 4Q/15

• Crude intake of 17.0 M.bbl (187 KBD), increased from 4Q/15 by 0.3 M.bbl (6 KBD) or 2%

• Market GIM $13.7/bbl, decreased by $1.0/bbl or 7% from lower spread of $1.3/bbl

and THB appreciation

• Everest increased $0.3/bbl or 243 MB

• Stock loss & Hedging + LCM was $-2.7/bbl (-1,632 MB), dropped by $2.1/bbl (1,226 MB)

• Selling & OPEX decreased by 957 MB mainly from manpower, insurance and

maintenance expenses decreased

• Income tax decreased : recording of deferred tax assets of 2015 outstanding net losses

821 MB and RTT liquidation 200 MB but higher of income tax expense 454 MB

• Others expenses decreased: depreciation, fin. Cost and doubtful account

Exchange rate (THB/USD)As ofSep 30, 15 36.53 Dec 31, 15 36.25Mar 31, 16 35.41Average4Q/15 = 36.00 1Q/16 = 35.83

Average Dubai price 4Q/15 = $40.71/bbl1Q/16 = $30.42/bbl

21

Unit : MB

447 171 942

243

1,226

957 221

567 124 3,014

Net Profit4Q/15

Net Profit1Q/16

Volume Increase

Margin Increase

Stock Loss& Hedging

+LCM

OthersEverest Project

FX. GainSelling Exp. + OPEX

Tax

Page 22: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

22

Deferred Tax Assets

Remark : In 1Q16, the net gain from tax benefit of Baht 536 million was attributed to

deferred tax assets of Baht 1,021 million offset by 1Q16 income tax of Baht 485 million.

(Unit : Million Baht)

Potential additional DTA from liquidation of subsidiaries in 2016 onwards

2,700 20% 540

Taxable Loss

Deferred Tax Assets Booking

Tax Loss Tax RateDeferred Tax

Assets

- Tax loss not yet recognized as DTAas of Jan 1, 2016

4,106 20% 821

- Write off in Rayong Tank Terminal Co.,LtdLiquidation

999 20% 200

Total 5,105 20% 1,021

Page 23: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Debt Portfolio

23

ST Loan1%

LT Loan (USD)10%

LT Loan33%

Bond (USD)15%

Bond (THB)41%

Debt StructureDebt Profile

Float 43 THB 60

Fixed 57 USD 40

Currency (%) Interest Rate (%)

Net Debt = 50,639 MB Ex. Rate = 35.41 Baht/$

54,568 50,128 50,639

Financial Ratios

0.85 0.99 1.05

1Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

0.76 0.66 0.64

1Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

< 1.0x

Net D/E CA/CL

Unit : MBNet Debt

Maturity of Financing Debt

2,370 2,740 3,040 2,540 3,740

10,270

354 708 708 3,364 708

354

5,000 -

7,386 5,000

3,364

6,890 8,427

7,724

3,448

19,561

10,904

7,812

17,514

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-24

Unit : MB

USD Bond

THB Bond

USD Loan

THB Loan

51,780 53,500 54,434

4,752 204 122

56,532 53,704 54,556

1,964 3,576 3,917 -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

L/T Debt S/T Debt Cash

1Q/15 4Q/15 1Q/16

Cost of Debt 3.91% 4.15% 4.15%

Currency MB

ST Loan THB 122

LT Loan USD 155 5,467

LT Loan THB 17,920

Bond USD 238 8,422

Bond THB 22,625

Total 393 54,556

Debt

As of Mar 31, 2016

Page 24: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

1Q/16 Highlight

Operation & Financial Performance

Industry Outlook

CEO’s Agenda

1

2

3

4

Agenda

24

Page 25: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Challenging Crude Oil Market: Volatile Crude Oil Price

25

Page 26: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

26

Oil Price Forecast

World Oil Market Forecast

Source: IEA medium term 2016 , Feb 16

World oil supply / Demand balance 2015-2021

Source: IEA medium term 2016 , Feb 16

Crude Oil Price Forecast

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Brent

Barclays

BofA

BNP

GoldmanSachsJBC

$39-46

$53-61

$63-70

Source: Reuters , Apr 16

$/bbl

Brent

• Stock surplus will be gone by the end of 2017

Price signal will have to be there at least one year in advance for shale crude reserves to significantly contribute

Worries of large Saudi, Iranian or Libyan supply growth are unwarranted

Product markets are carefully balanced with strong demand growth and high refinery production/stock levels

Source: PIRA World oil forecast, Apr 16

Page 27: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Outlook

Driving Determinants

27

KeyProducts

Price(1Q/16)

Spread(1Q/16)

2Q/16vs.

1Q/16

3Q/16vs.

2Q/16

Refinery ($/bbl) ($/bbl) Outlook Outlook

Dubai 30.4 -

ULG95 49.2 18.8

GAS OIL0.05%S

40.0 9.6

FO 25.2 -5.2

Lube Base Oil ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook

500 SN 602 442

150 BS 1,004 844

• Gasoline crack expects improve over the next few months as higher demand in early June due to the start of Muslim fasting month. In addition, demand for gasoline in the U.S. will ramp up to the peak summer driving season.

• India’s export tempered by strong domestic demand.

• Fuel oil cracks down as China cut their imports owing to the tea kettle refineries ’s quotas to import crude (rather than use fuel oil as a feedstock).

• Pressure still on crude price due to global supply glut, failure of Doha talks. Fundamentals point to tightening balances and a gradual oil price recovery in 2H16/2017

• Price rebound in 2Q/16. Downstream end user replenish their inventory. Tight 500SN spot supply in 2Q because NE. Asia refinery prepare to turnaround and limit their spot cargo to the market

• Regional demand peak in 2Q when buyers replenish their inventories after price turns upward.

Page 28: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Short-Term Petrochemical Products Outlook

28

KeyProducts

Price(1Q/16)

Spread(1Q/16)

2Q/16vs.

1Q/16

3Q/16vs.

2Q/16

Olefins ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook

Ethylene 1,012 668

HDPE 1,251 907

Propylene 649 304

PP 944 600

Styrenics ($/T) ($/T) Outlook Outlook

PS 1,153 809

ABS 1,198 854

Driving Determinants

• Tight supply in Asia due to scheduled turnaround

• Asia SM price is seen to be stable to soft as the supply tightness is easing

• Downstream demand is expected to increase by manufacturing activities improvement in 3Q as well as price outlook could be driven from an improving on feedstock recovery

• Tight supply in Asia due to scheduled turnaround and crackers shutdown in Asia and Middle East

• Naphtha price still high• Expected soft price in 3Q due to ample supply, and

thin demand from end users• Additional supply from ME as Petro Rabigh expands

its cracker from 1 mTon to 1.3 mTon• Expected slow demand in Malaysia and Indonesia, in

the run-up to the Eid holiday (July 5)

Page 29: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

1Q/16 Highlight

Operation & Financial Performance

Industry Outlook

CEO’s Agenda

1

2

3

4

Agenda

29

Page 30: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

30

Getting to the top and staying there

30

Height

29,029 ft.

Basecamp

(17,500’)

Camp l

(19,500’)

Camp ll

(21,000’)

Camp lll

(23,500’)

Camp lV

(26,300’)

2020

2016

2017

2018

2019

ROIC 14%1st Quartile ROIC in

Petroleum &

Petrochemical Industry

Performance

Health

+

Page 31: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

31

From iceberg to EVEREST

$100m

$200m

$300m

Page 32: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

32

Contents

EVEREST

Performance: $300m+

Health: top quartile

Operations area

▪ 234 initiatives

▪ 5.6b THB impact

90%

Commercial area

▪ 189 initiatives

▪ 1.5b THB impact

Procurement area

▪ 337 initiatives

▪ 0.45b THB impact

Corporate area

▪ 61 initiatives

▪ 1.8b THB impact

90% 73% 93%

8+4 M&SModel plant

ISC 2.0

Strategic

marketing

Pricing &

contracts

Go-to-

market

Innovation &

Product /

Service man-

agement

Optimization

of sales &

supply

Channel partner

management

Sales and Account

management

Sales

support

M&S

8+4

Talent

management

Performance

management

Analytical tools

and systems

Organization

and pivotal roles

A C

C D

1 2

7

43

6

5

8

e3 operating model

Systems: WAVE + instilling TO cadence

Functional skills: Consultant Academy

RTS

Problem solving

Communications

Team management

Performance management: KPI

cascading, performance reviews and

evaluation, coaching

Young Leaders program

OHI; iSpirit

Pe

rfo

rma

nce

He

alt

h

Page 33: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

2010

2013

2015

2017

Operational Efficiency Improvement

Asset Utilization Enhancement

Product and Service Improvement

Capacity and Products Expansion

Project Completion

• CHP I: Electricity +220 MW,

Steam +420 T/hr

• PRP: Propylene +100 KTA

• EURO IV: Gasoline 15 KBD, Diesel 10

KBD, Jet 15 KBD

• TDAE +28 KTA, 150BS +25 KTA

• EBSM +60 KTA, ABS/SAN +60 KTA

• Lube Blending +60 M.Ltrs./year

Margin Improvement

• Operational Excellence

• Commercial Excellence

• Procurement & HR

Excellence

Benefit +135 MUSD

Incremental Margin

Organization Health

• Capability Building

• Owner mindset &

Performance Orientation

• Cultural Changes• PX

• AA/SAP

Fully Integrated PP

• PP Expansion +160 KTA

• PP Compounding +140 KTA

New investments through JV

INDIVIDUAL OWNERSHIP

SYNERGY

PERFORMANCE EXCELLENCE

INNOVATION

RESPONSIBILITY FOR SOCIETY

INTEGRITY & ETHICS

TRUST & RESPECT

UHV Propylene +320 KTA

IRPC Strategic Roadmap to 2020

Page 34: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

The future begins now creating shared value

Q & A

Environment

Social

Education & Sports

Labor & Human Rights

Religion

Public Health

Page 35: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Thank You

Investor Relations Contact: [email protected]

Tel. 02-649-7380, Fax. 02-649-7379

Presentation is available at

www.irpc.co.th

Click “Presentations”

This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in

the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each

recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation.

The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the Information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each

recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.

Page 36: OPPORTUNITY DAY Opportunity Day - dcs-digital.comdcs-digital.com/setweb/downloads/2559q1/20160517_irpc.pdf · Comparison of Benchmark GIM & MKT GIM 5 13.4 13.5 11.6 13.1 14.7 13.7

Statement of Financial Position

MB %

Assets 163,781 163,174 607 0%

Cash and Mkt. Sec. 3,917 3,576 341 10%

AR 7,586 8,942 (1,356) (15)%

Inventory 21,661 21,306 355 2%

PPE & IP 117,386 115,997 1,389 1%

Other assets 13,231 13,352 (121) (1)%

Liabilities & Equity 163,781 163,174 607 0%

AP 23,764 25,741 (1,977) (7.7)%

IBD 54,556 53,704 851 2%

Other liabilities 6,506 7,850 (1,344) (17)%

Equity 78,955 75,878 3,077 4%

Unit : MB 31 Dec 15Change

31 Mar 16

36

Inventory• Volume increased from 8.93 Mbbl to 11.20 Mbbl• Price decreased 16% following the crude oil price• Inventory day = 47 days, increasing by 3 days from 31 Dec 15

EquityIncreasing by 4% : net profit 3,014 MB and fair value of available-for-sale investment increased 54 MB

PPE• Fixed Assets Purchase (mainly for UHV) 2,757 MB• Depreciation (1,368) MB

1,389 MB

AP• Decreasing by 8% from the lower in crude oil price offset by

increasing in crude purchased volume• AP day = 61 days increasing by 4 days from 31 Dec 15

IBD• Increasing by 2 % : Long-term loan drawdown 2,000 MB offset by loan

repayment 732 MB

AR• Decreasing by 15% from the lower in product price• AR day = 15 days, increasing by 3 days from 31 Dec 15

Cash• From Operation 2,244 MB• Investing & S/T investment (2,705) MB• Financing 802 MB

341 MB