opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

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Opportunity, Strategy & the Evaluation of the Business Plan? Mohd. Murray Hunter

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Opportunity, Strategy & the Evaluation of the Business Plan? - The nature of opportunity, How entreprneeurs really work, can and do entrepreneurs use a business plan?, Business plan or business model?, Forecasting, formats, and evaluation

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Page 1: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Opportunity, Strategy & the Evaluation of the Business Plan?

Mohd. Murray Hunter

Page 2: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Discussion Today

The nature of opportunity

How entrepreneurs really work

Can and do entrepreneurs use a

business plan?

Forecasting

Formats

Evaluation

Business Plan or Business Model?

Page 3: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Small Business Verses Entrepreneurship

Page 4: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
Page 5: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Raw materials

Transport

Production Transport

Warehouse

Supermarket

Community

Farm

Transport

Education

Research & Development

Management

Fossil Fuels Pollution

Power generation

Export/Import

Air Transport

Waste

Competition & Tension

Conflict

Government

Diversity

Economic Growth

Health Development Poverty &

Unhappiness

Consumption

Uncertainty

New Paradigms

Regulation

Page 6: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Merging Industries

Change

Shock

Gestalt

Competitor’s new products

Technology Demographics

New Information

Lifestyle

Changing Tastes

Economy

Regulation

New Opportunities

©Hunter (2011)

Page 7: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Product Opportunity

Gap

Social Social and cultural trends

and drivers Reviving historical trends Influence of international

trends

Technology State of the art and emerging technology Re-evaluating existing

technology Technology applied in new

areas

Economic State of the economy

Shift in focus on where to spend money

Level of disposable income Level of debt

Regulation Restriction of existing

regulations New regulations and impact

on product markets and supply chains

Page 8: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Perceptual Changes

The Environment

Experience

New Knowledge Changing

Domicile Outlook

Urbanization, growing

confidence about social status, etc.

New knowledge about health, fitness,

food, etc.

Aspirations

Where am I now?

Where do I want to be?

Global Convergence

Peers and Role Models

Attitudes

New technology

Changing traditions

Changing Affluence

Page 9: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

The benefits of exercise and working out in a gym

Women wanting a safe and secure environment

Women feeling intimidated in conventional gyms in the weight

areas.

Not working out in

conventional gyms

Pick up women’s changing perceptions

Current situation

Changing Perceptions

Result in creation of Fernwood

Women’s Health Club Concept

Page 10: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Opportunity

Support/Facilitate

Regulate/Control Encourage/Discourage

Intellectual Property Laws

Anti-trust Laws

Taxation

Legal System

Board of Investment

Specific Regulatory Bodies i.e., Pesticides Board

Capital Raising Institutions

Labour Laws

Environmental Laws

Business Formation Procedures

Licensing & Permits

Contract Enforcement

Policing of Corruption

Property Laws

Education & Training

R&D Policy

Trade barriers & Protection

Product Standards & safety

Fiscal & Monetary Policy

Page 11: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Changing Technology

Relatively Stable

Flux & Transformation De

crea

sing S

tabi

lity

Increasing Complexity

Routine Non-Routine

Subsistence Farming

Cash cropping

Market gardening Consulting Business

FMCG Manufacturing

Small Retail

Wholesaling

Electronic Goods

Computer & Mobile Phone Airlines

Automobile Manufacture

DVD Rental

Medical Services Fast Food

Page 12: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Construction New technologies

New Business models

Imitation Replication & Extension

Allocative Supply/Demand changes

Demographic changes

Discovery Incongruities

Structural changes

Locus of change

Value creation

Analytical

Deductive (Black & white)

Intuitive

Inductive

Degree of ambiguity Active/Imaginative

Passive/Reactive The forms of opportunity©Hunter (2011)

Page 13: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Large Companies & Consumer Type

Markets High analytical & Low

intuitive opportunities, high strategy & low tactical

exploitation

Breakthrough Technology

High analytical and high intuitive opportunities, high

strategy & high tactical exploitation

Imitative Business

Low analytical & low intuitive opportunities, low strategy &

low tactical exploitation

Entrepreneurial

Low analytical & high intuitive, low strategy & high tactical

exploitation

Growing importance

of formal strategy

Growing importance of tactical moves

Low

High

Analytical

Low High Intuitive

©Hunter (2011)

Page 14: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
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Page 23: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Automobile

Chassis Engine Tires Control & management

Systems

Braking System Environment

Steel

Suspension systems

Fuel

Compression &

Combustion

Rubber

Chemical Processes

Plantations

Road Rules

Roads & Carriageways

Alloys

Hydraulics

Electronics

Microprocessors

Page 24: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Sources of Opportunity (Opportunity Anchors)

Market Void Technology Infusion

Structural changes Resource Monopoly

Regulation Non-Innovative

Incongruities

Demographic Changes

Perceptual Changes

Invention

Incremental Improvement

Adaptation

New Processes

New Materials

Changes in Industry Structure

New Processes

Adaptation, combination &

integration

Physical Resource

Capability Resource

Legal Resource

Brand Resource

Scarcity Power

Cost/value Shift

Effect on Product

Effect on Process

Personal Service &

Consulting

Duplication

Extension

Copy/ Imitation

Strategies for each source of opportunity

Page 25: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Market Orientated Firms

High adaptability to the environment but low

generative idea & strategy ability

Conservative firms

Very low adaptability to environment

Both Market & Entrepreneurially Orientated Firms

High adaptive and idea generative & strategy development ability

Entrepreneurial Firms

High generative idea & strategy capability

Mar

ket

Ori

enta

tion

Entrepreneurial Orientation

High

High

Low

Low

Four potential firm opportunity seeking typologies

Page 26: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Fastfood (General Characteristics)

1. Cheap 2. Good standard of hygiene 3. Good service 4. Fast and efficient 5. Specialize in a particular food 6. Know what to expect 7. A meeting place for people

Charcoal Burger Grill

1. Location near young people (university): convenient

2. Cheap and affordable 3. Good service 4. Authentic charcoal BBQ

burger grill (western style) 5. Convenient meeting place

with WiFi etc.

University

Location

Potential success parameters

Co

nce

pt

Extr

acti

on

Constructed Concept Concept Extraction

A (location) + B (characteristics) = C (constructed Concept)

A

B

C

©Hunter (2011)

Page 27: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Organically produced high active concentration shampoo with product

variants to suit various conditions.

Central Theme (Product Proposition)

Underlying Assumptions High & discerning

market end. Customers who

want mass custom produced

products.

Low competition in segment.

Rapidly growing segment.

Products match personal values.

Sustainable

Strategy Characteristics

Brand Theme

Features Benefits Signal

Attributes Channels

Page 28: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Customers

Laundry Service

Service Convenience Price Quality Relationship

Page 29: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Matching product to some marketspace

Matching marketspace to some product

Two ways to scan for opportunities

Page 30: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Ambition, sense of mission, attitudes, beliefs, values, available (and potential resources), self efficacy, networks, skills, competencies, and capabilities, etc.

Vision Platform

Micro-enterprise

Street Stalls

Corner Shops

Micro-entrepreneurs

Lifestyle Businesses

Independent specialty Retail SME Level

Large manufacturing

Independent Retail Chains

Large Business

Specialty Wholesaling

Automobile Manufacturers

Airlines

Universities

Modern Extensive Farming Enterprises

Large Pharmaceutical Companies

Banks

Mega Business

Mall Type Shopping Centres

Page 31: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Opportunities

Cognitive Bias

An identified market where enterprise resources and competencies will be able to exploit

The potential opportunity will have a large enough market size to sustain the enterprise

The enterprise will be able to take advantage of this opportunity better than any other competitors

Outside elements in the supply chain will support the enterprise

Any factor or group of factors that will allow the enterprise to grow in a

sustainable manner within the market environment

Threats

Competitors identifying the same opportunities and enacting upon them

The regulatory environment and potential changes within it

Inability to penetrate the existing supply chain and make alternative strategies

Dependence on survival from a single or very few customers

Depending on a single product for total Any factor or group of factors that may potentially hinder enterprise growth in a sustainable manner without any contingencies verse

acts of God, bad weather, drought, etc.

Strengths

Personal and enterprise competencies, knowledge & experience that can be utilized for the benefit of the enterprise

Facilities, infrastructure, financial backing & liquidity, long timeframe view

Ability to learn through research and experimentation

Any network connections with industry and access to the supply chain for both information and marketing

Ambition and vision (but not delusional), focus & commitment

Ability to innovate technically, market and organizational wise

Any factor or group of factors that can assist the enterprise gain

competitive advantage over its competitors

Weaknesses

Competency gap Short term timeframe, no fall back position if positive results

delayed or there are technical or market failures Poor infrastructure that hinders production or marketing Shortage of funds to undertake project to completion Qualified or lack of commitment by any key people within

organization Lack of network, knowledge and access to supply chain

Any factor or group of factors that can hinder the enterprise gain competitive advantage over its

competitors

Opportunities are seen with bias according to knowledge,

experience, wisdom, educational background, market knowledge,

competencies, etc.

Risks/ Uncertainties

Any factor or groups of factors

that make outcomes uncertain

in the future

Any factor or groups of factors that may lead to venture failure

Page 32: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Networks

Skills, Capabilities

Resources

Making Connection

Vision Platform

Time & Space

Strategy

Competitive Field

©Hunter (2011)

Page 33: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Idea/Product/Concept1. What is the idea/product/concept?

2. Is there a consumer need for this idea/product/concept?3. Do many people need this idea/product/concept?4. How do consumers cope with their problem/need/want without this idea/product/concept now?

5. Will this idea/product/concept provide a better solution to the consumer than what is already available?

Marketing1. Who are the potential customers and target market?2. How many potential customers are there (how large is the market)?3. Who are the competitors (and potential competitors)?4. How are your competitors doing in the market (decline, stable, growth)?5. Is it their major business (do they rely on other forms of business)?6. How will you promote the product (what advertising and promotion strategy)?

7. What will be your pricing strategy (what revenue over cost)?8. Do you have the ability to reach potential customers?

Page 34: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Skills

1. What skills do you need to realize the opportunity?

2. Do you have these skills or can they be acquired?

3. Are these skills commonly available to all competitors (and potential)?4. Can I manage this venture?

Networks

1. What networks do I need on the supply side?

2. What networks do I need to obtain resources (materials, people, finance)?3. What networks do I need on the sales side?

4. How crucial are these networks to success/failure?

Resources

1. What resources do I need?

2. Are these resources available?

3. Are these resources within my reach?

4. Are these resources available to everyone?

5. Will I have enough financial resources to sustain this venture?

Page 35: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Product

1. Does the product solve a consumer problem, or satisfy a want or need?2. Is this problem, want or need an important one?

3. What are the alternative solutions to the consumer?

4. What is the cost to the consumer of these solutions?

Product/Strategy

1. Can I develop a product/strategy that is different from others?2. Will this different product/strategy be valued (or provide benefits) to consumers?

Page 36: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Change In User Habits

Risk None

None

Some

Some

Great

Great

Dangerous

High

High

None

Change in how and where people buy the product

Medium

Medium

Medium

Low

Low

Page 37: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

How Entrepreneurs Really Work

Page 38: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

The Summarised

Entrepreneurial

Process

Idea

Turn into Opportunity

Final Commitment

Start-Up

Growth

Sustainability

Creativity

Innovation

Strategy

Sales

NPD

Resource Gathering

Page 39: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Your Moves

Your Competitor’s

Moves

Your advantages & Disadvantages

©Hunter (2011)

Page 40: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Ideas Opportunities Strategies Opportunity Performance match Match

Spots

Evaluates &

Elaborates

Selects

Implements & Modifies

Perception & Creativity

Innovation Strategic Thinking

Venture Operations

Capabilities Governing Competitive Scope

Competencies Entrepreneurial, Opportunity

identification, Network, Conceptual, Strategic, Commitment

Resources Networks

Uniqueness / Differentiation

Management Capability

Competitive Advantage Costs: To customers, to operate Knowledge: Competitive environment Relationships: Customers, suppliers, financiers, (relative power) Structure: Organizational ability Technology: strength

Page 41: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Opportunities

Environment

Firm Opportunity Trajectory

Firm Alternative Opportunity Trajectory

Field of Network Based

Opportunities

Page 42: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Can and do entrepreneurs use a business plan?

Page 43: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

The Secret

Page 44: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
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Business PlanOr

Business Model?

Page 52: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Consumers

Positioning

Targeting

Segmentation

Market Identification

The Causation Process

Product idea to compete with

existing products in market

Attempting to create

some form of

competitive advantage

Opportunity

Refining the Idea

Concept

The set of possible ideas/products/markets

The Effectuation Process

Potential new novel product extending

market field or creating a new one through existing or new channels and business models.

Page 53: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Vision & Goals

Modified Vision & Goals

Actual Path & Performance

Wind in the case of a yacht or environmental turbulence in the

case of a firm.

Page 54: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

X X X X

Evolved Strategy

Tactics Applied

Trial and error tactical use with various levels of Success/Non-Success

Page 55: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

New Products Existing Products

Existing Markets

New Markets

Causation

Effectuation

Page 56: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Opportunity Shift

Present Networks

Needed Networks Realignment of Networks

Present Strategies

Needed Strategies Realignment of Strategies

An identified opportunity in

the past

Newly identified opportunity needing

different goals, strategies,

competencies, skills, resources and

organization than previously

Time

Present Organization

Present Skills & Competencies

Present Resources

Needed Organization

Needed Skills & Competencies

Needed Resources

Reengineering of Total Organization

What strategies are required to successfully

exploit the new opportunity and meet the organizations new goals?

Realignment of Organization

Realignment of Skills & Competencies

Realignment of Resources

What type of organization and business model is

needed to support the selected strategy?

What skills, competencies and technologies are

needed to support the new business model

and strategy?

What resources are needed to support

skills, competencies, technologies, new

business model and strategy?

What new goals are needed to exploit

the newly identified opportunity?

The Opportunity Landscape

New Goals Present Goals Setting of New goals

What networks are needed to exploit the opportunity, acquires

skills, technologies and resources, support the new business model

and strategy?

Com

petiti

vene

ss

Page 57: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Industrial

Industrial Markets These markets usually buy

materials and components to manufacture other products, or supplies necessary to run a

business. Manufacturers usually deal directly

with industrial customers or act through distributors.

Consumer

Consumer Markets Consumer products include automobiles, white goods, electrical goods, fast moving consumer

products and services, including financial, insurance, travel, etc.

Companies market and sell direct to consumers, through distributors and/or retailers, etc. Many manufacturers tend to

service national markets, while many service businesses are localized, except where companies have overcome fragmentation.

International

International Markets An international market could be any type of the other markets excepting it

is in a remote location from the enterprise.

The entering firm will have to decide whether to enter directly through a fully owned

subsidiary, joint venture with a local partner, utilize a distributor or other representative,

license or franchise the product or service to a local company. The enterprise will also have to adapt its strategies to the local ways of doing

things.

Resale Resale Markets Second hand goods, some

internet sites like eBay, Auctions & Real Estate, etc.

Sales often undertaken by intermediaries, pricing varies

according to demand & supply, power in market according to scarcity

Government

Government Markets Usually high volume capital &

service products. Goods usually decided upon through issuing specifications and tenders. In

some industries the government market can be up to 60% of the total market. This market although decisions made

through tenders, strategies based upon building strong relationships necessary.

Types of Markets

Page 58: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

An exciting low cost airline to fly

on

Young & invigorating image

Baggage

No baggage transfers No connection with

other airline baggage services

Baggage surcharge Auto-check with no

baggage

Internet Bookings

Limited use of travel agents

Fast Aircraft turn-around times

Not burdened by traditional air and ground

crew procedures No connection with other

airlines

Standardized aircraft to cut down on

maintenance costs

Extra means of revenue

Paid snacks & meals Seating

Blankets Computerized ticketing

methods Related businesses -

hotels

General savings on overheads

Low landing charges and terminal fees

Headquarters located at airport terminal

Young good looking air & ground crews Modern and trendy

aircraft interiors Advertising image

Page 59: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Perspectives

Page 60: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

A

va

ila

bilit

y I

nc

rea

ses

Usefulness Increases

Media Reports

Ideas

Data

Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

The Continuum from media reports to wisdom in relation to availability and usefulness

Where does the informati on come from?

Page 61: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

$ Cost

$ Return

Deg

ree o

f P

rocessin

g

Final Product Form

Selection of Crop

Trials

Propagation

Land Preparation

Planting, Maintenance &

Irrigation

Harvesting & Extraction

Product Development

Final Product

Crop & Project Failure

No Return

Co

mp

os

t &

Mu

lch

Bio

fue

l

An

ima

l Fe

ed

Cru

de

Es

se

ntia

l Oil

Org

an

ic A

gro

-

pro

du

ct

Co

sm

etic

&

Aro

ma

the

rap

y

Nu

trice

utic

al

Ph

arm

ac

eu

tica

l

Conceptual Value Added Processing Options with Revenue and Cost

Implications

Page 62: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Consumers

Wholesalers & retailers

Manufacturers

Flavour & Fragrance Houses

Traders & Brokers

Primary Producer

Essential oil as primary Product. Focus on market demand & supply

and meeting standard

Essential oil as an ingredient in

a product. Focus on uses

and applications research

Manufacture of end products. Focus on

formulation and end product

development

Technical Focus

General or Niche Customers

Vertica

l Integ

ratio

n A

lon

g th

e Su

pp

ly

Ch

ain

Application Focus

Technology Focus

IP Focus (?) Specific

Customer

Branding Theme Consumer

Marketing Reaching

Mass or selected Markets

New Product Development

Agro Industrial Consumer Orientation Orientation Orientation

Consumer Trends

Important

Technical Trends

Important

Demand & Supply, Buying

Criteria Important

Venture Focus Along Different Parts of the Supply Chain

Page 63: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Potential New Crop Ideas screened through a process that eliminates

potential ideas.

? The industrial product ideation process aims to generate ideas from

a zero base.

Leads to one crop (idea) to be developed

Leads to many ideas to be further screened

Page 64: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
Page 65: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Research into genetic material and propagation

methods

Ongoing genetic material improvement

research

Leads onto

Acceptable genetic material for commercial

production and a set of propagation

practices

Leads onto

Research into planting, spacings densities, best environmental conditions, nutrient and moisture levels

Acceptable field practices for the

crop

Leads onto

Research into harvesting methods, harvest

timeframes, pre-extraction handling methods

Acceptable harvest and pre-extraction practices for the

crop

Ongoing agronomic research aimed

towards better yields and chemical composition

Leads onto

Research into various extraction methods and

techniques

Acceptable extraction practices

Research into post extraction handling

methods

Acceptable post extraction handling

practices

Ongoing research into post extraction

handling

Leads onto

Leads onto

Leads onto Leads onto

The set of optimum enterprise site specific agronomic and extraction

practices

An Operational Farm Research and

Management Plan

Page 66: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
Page 67: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Ideation

Evaluate for Opportunity

Develop Product Specifications

Market & Product Planning

Concept & Prototype Generation

Packaging Design

Manufacturing System Design

Product Registration

Further Product Formulation

Final Product & Packaging Review

Limited Test Market Refinement of

Product Before launch

Product Launch

Post Launch Product

Refinements

The generation of an original product idea from some source

Development of a desired list of

product attributes

Idea needs to be evaluated to determine whether it is a viable market opportunity

Early attention needed to prevent delays in final

approval

Difficult to organise because of high customer

concentration

Needed to fix any unforseen product issues immediately before/after

launch

Both technical and market aspects

The design of plant for new product forms will require a

number of product formulation modifications

Concerned about encapsulating desired theme and attributes into packaging

Early product/strategy concepts

Page 68: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Objectives

Sales Profitability Growth Sustainability Survival

Competitive Strategy

New Product Development

Marketing Strategy

Intellectual Property Strategy

General Operational Strategies

Resource Strategies

Capital Goods

Strategy

Finance Strategy

Personnel Strategy Supply Chain

Strategy

Business Model

Procurement Strategy

Manufacturing Strategy

Accounting

Work Procedures

Operational Policies

Competitive Capability

Strategic Decisions

Opportunity

Page 69: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
Page 70: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Competitive Rivalries Lemongrass quick yield and straightforward to cultivate and distil – expect high elasticity of supply from both existing and new producers. Producers of substitutes very aggressive

Bargaining Power of Suppliers Collecting the most suitable planting material require effort. Extraction and harvest .technology needs to be acquired or developed Analytical equipment or service maybe expensive/remote.

Substitutes Citral (main constituents) can be produced from a number of chemical feed stocks. Alternative oils (litsea cubeba) cost much less to produce. Lemon myrtle oil much smoother and acceptable to end users Many alternatives to lemongrass in product formulations.

Trends & Technology Alternative technologies to steam distillation (CO2) can make much smoother oil but will increase capital needs greatly. Natural, exotic, organic, FAIRTRADE could increase oils popularity (?) if seen as exotic.

Substitutes

Tre

nd

s &

Te

ch

no

log

y

Bargaining power of buyers

Bargaining power of suppliers

Competitive Rivalries

Re

gu

lati

on

Regulation SCCP placed lemongrass oil under scrutiny as a cosmetic ingredient in EU.

Industry Competitors

Intensity of Rivalry

Bargaining Power of Buyers Currently small item of trade in flavour industry, strong relationships with established producers.

Page 71: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

High Market Growth Low Strong Weak Relative Competitive Position

Crude Essential Oil Steam Distilled

Essential Oil under

CO2 extraction

Cosmetic production for international

market

Organic Cosmetic

production for international

market

Essential Oil Based Agro-

chemical

Page 72: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Organisational Capability Creative, Opportunity, conceptual, strategic, Learning, Organisational, financial, Technical,

Marketing, Networking and Commitment Competencies

How the Business is Currently Performing

The base for potential future Development

Resources Existing and Available to the Business

The Set of Potential Opportunities

Tim

e a

nd C

om

pany

Evo

lutio

n/C

han

ge

Enterprise Performance

Personal Objectives

Stre

ngth

s and W

eaknesse

s T

hem

e Personal Resou

rces Netw

ork Product M

anagem

ent Fin

ance

4 Ps & S

kills Facilities A

ttributes

Exte

rnal In

fluence

s &

Thre

ats

M

arke

t E

conom

y Reg

ula

tion T

echnol

ogy

P

ositio

n Soc

ial S

ituat

ion Chan

ge &

Com

petition

A

spirat

ions

D

evel

opm

ent

Key internal influences on the strategic

process

The process of product/market development

Key external influences on the strategic

process

Competitive Position

Cognitive Bias

Structural/ Support Strategies

Interventional Strategies

Page 73: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Essential Oil Development Research Project Gantt & Milestone ChartActivity/Research Objectives Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Genetic Material/Propagation1. Selection Initial selections2. Propagation trials Seed/vegetative3. Index selection Continuing ProgLand Preparation1. Clearing & Initial Preparation 10 Ha. Plot2. Level & slope3. Irrigation infrastructure Sprinkler systemPlanting/Maintenance Trials1. Trial row planting/spacings/plots Var. densities2. Nutrient trials NPK x 3levels3. Weeding trials Manual vs. chem.Harvesting Trials1. Harvest trials Manual2. Post harvest handling variations Packing density3. Mechanisation trials Mod. HarvesterExtraction Trials1. Distillation trial (part maturity) Stage sampling2. Distillation trial (full maturity) Ea. Rep. plots3. Large scale field distillation compare lab samp4. Variances of distillation times Yield/constituents5. Charge packing variance trials Yield varianceEconomic Appraisal Full castings

M1: Propagation Methodolgy

M2: Optimum spacing/density

M3: Optimum Nutrient levels

M4: Optimum weed control techniques

M5: Knowledge Yields & Biomass

M6: Knowledge composition/

Var. conditions

M7: Optimum Distil parameters

M8: Full economic study

Page 74: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Format

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Forecasting

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Page 85: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Rate of Adoption

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Innovation Growth Maturity

Page 86: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
Page 87: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
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Page 89: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Checklists

Page 90: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Questions you should ask about financial viability?

Page 91: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

1. Costs of Crop Domestication

o Can they potential crop be domesticated into field production easily?

o If not, will biomass be wild-collected?o What method would be most suitable for

propagation, from seed, cuttings, tissue culture, other?

o Does nursery propagation of the potential crop require any other special care?

o What staffing will be required?o What would be the approximate costs of

achieving the above?

Page 92: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

2. Field Preparation and Infrastructure

o What overall infrastructure will be needed?, i.e., nursery, road access, fencing, outbuildings, farming equipment, etc.

o What land preparation is needed, land levelling and contouring, drainage, etc.

o Does the crop require large amounts of water to thrive during growth?

o Is there adequate water available through rainfall to satisfy this?

o Will irrigation be required? If so, what method? Will dams and catchment areas have to be constructed to ensure a plentiful water supply?

o What will be the approximate costs of this?o Are there any other potential costs?

Page 93: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

3. Planting and Maintenance

o Approximately how long will the crop take from field planting to harvest maturity?

o How will the potential crop be planted?, manually/automated? What will be the costs involved?

o What would the approximate planting density be?o Will nutrients have to be applied? If so, how

regularly? How much? What method will be used to apply them? What will be the approximate costs of this?

o How often are re-plantings required? After each harvest, after a number of seasons, after how many years, what are the costs involved to prepare for each re-planting?

Page 94: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

4. Harvesting, Extraction and Post Extractiono Is harvest timing crucial?, i.e., a time of day, a very short window

in a particular month, etco What are the costs involved in achieving this harvest window?o What method of harvest will be utilised? Manual, semi-

mechanised, fully mechanisedo What would be the approximate costs of building the harvest

equipment?o What method of extraction will be required? Hydro-distillation,

steam distillation, destructive distillation, vacuum distillation, solvent extraction, other

o What power sources will be utilised? What are their costs?o How will spent biomass be dealt with? Does it have any

economic value or can it be used back in the farming process?o Is the technology understood for the above processes? If not,

what will be the costs of acquiring it?o What will be the fabrication costs to build the above?o What regulations (i.e., EPA) are relevant to the processes? And

how much will development and compliance cost?o Will specialist staff be required?o What would the approximate cost of energy to oil yield?

Page 95: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

5. Estimated (guessed) Project Size and Yieldso How many hectares do you anticipate to

cultivate?o How many years will it take to achieve this?o What (based on literature and other

knowledge) would be the approximate biomass per hectare achievable? (min. and max. est.)

o Does the biomass have to be wilted, stored or otherwise processed before extraction?

o What would be the yield as a percentage of biomass after extraction?

Page 96: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

6. Estimated Financial Viabilityo 1. Research costs =o 2. Costs of crop domestication =o 3. Field preparation and infrastructure costs =o 4. Propagation, planting and maintenance costs =o 5. Harvesting, extraction & post extraction costs

=o Total Capital Costs (1+3) =o Total operational costs (2+4+5) =o Total amount of oil yielded =o Total oil value =o Value – total operational costs =o Return/total capital costs x 100 = Return on

investment

Page 97: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
Page 98: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Competencies Required During the Essential Oil Development Process

Screening & Bio-prospecting

Propagation & domestication or

introduction

Planting, cultivation & maintenance

Harvesting, Extraction and

wastage handling

New product development &

creation of value added products &

activities

Strategic, operations, finance and technical

management

Product & venture management

Marketing & commercialisation

Sustaining and growing the enterprise

(adapting & survival)

Output: Result/Performance, Sustainable and healthy enterprise or

a struggling and failing enterprise

Opportunity and technical competencies require:

Botany, ethno-botany, research ability, chemistry, bio-chemistry, analytical

chemistry. Market and specific technical product knowledge

Technical Competencies require: Plant physiology, micro-propagation, nursery

management, agronomics

Technical competencies require:

Bio-system engineering, Soil management,

entomology, plant nutrition, Agronomics, field

management, irrigation engineering

Technical competencies require:

Thermodynamics and plant physiology, heat transfer, distillation engineering,

chemistry, chemical engineering, agricultural

engineering, environmental engineering (waste

management)

Strategic, opportunity and technical

competencies require: Project management,

marketing management, chemistry, cosmetic

chemistry, perfumery/ flavour knowledge,

Packaging & design, manufacturing

engineering

Strategic, organizational, relationship opportunity competencies require:

Business strategic, industry knowledge, industry

networks, ability to raise finance, ability to plan,

implement & adjust, leadership, entrepreneurial

Strategic and organizational

competencies require: Administrative, financial management, technical management, strategic

management, personnel management, resources

management, entreprenuerial

Page 99: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Competency Present Not Present Comments

Technical 1. Botany2. Plant Physiology3. Chemistry/Analytical4. Micro-propagation5. Nursery Management6. Environmental Engineering7. Chemical

engineering/thermodynamics/etc8. Soil Management9. Agronomy/plant nutrition/field

management10. Entomology11. Irrigation engineering12. Agricultural Engineering13. Regulation knowledge14. Cosmetic chemistry/food etc15. Perfume/flavours16. Packaging & design17. Consumer product manufacturing

Basic

BasicExperienc

eExperienc

eExperienc

eBasicBasicBasic

LowLowLowLowLowLowLowLowLow

Need guidanceNeed assistanceNeed guidance Assistance AvailableCan design Need appraisalUse contractorUse instituteReplicated experimentsWith EnvironmentUse contractorCan developNeed assistanceLearn from experienceUse contractor

Opportunity/Entrepreneurial/Commitment1. Able to screen environment for

opportunities2. Able to evaluate opportunities3. Commitment level

YesYes

Passionate

Need to see realistically

Page 100: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Relationship1. Have relationships in target

industries2. Have relationships in research

area3. Have relationships in finance

industry

A fewA fewSome

Organising/Management1. Able to project manage2. Able to administrate3. Able to financially manage

operation4. Able to undertake research5. Able to keep key people

motivated

YesYesYesYesYes

Strategic1. Understand dynamics of market

and industry environment2. Able to plan for a business

within this environment3. Able to implement, evaluate

and adjust plans in this environment

YesYesYes

Believe so but not tested

Page 101: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
Page 102: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Budget Items for an Essential Oil Research Project1. Capital Equipment and Infrastructure Developmenta) Land Preparation

Field preparation Fencing Buildings (equipment storage, office, processing equipment, etc) Access roads and internal roads Dams and irrigation equipment

b) Farming Equipment Tractors and accessories Ploughs, etc Basic farming implementsa) Harvesting Equipment

Harvester and foliage binsCart and/or field trays

b) Processing Equipment Field and/or commercial distillery Source for steam generationa) Laboratory Equipment Laboratory distillation equipment Glassware Scales GC (optional)a) Regulatory Compliance Any licenses relevant to rural operations

Page 103: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

1. Project Costsa) Seed and/or other genetic materials

Cost from seed supplier/merchant Travel and costs of field procurement

b) Nursery Seed germination housing (pest, sun and weather proof) Potting transfer facility (weather protected) Tissue culture facility (if required) Nursery materialsa) Farm Chemicals and Supplies Fertilisers Pesticides/Herbicides Other agricultural materialsa) General Overhead Costs Electricity, rates and other expenses Insurance & sundries Repairs and maintenance1. Project Operational Costs

Wages & salaries (general workers) Administration costs Consultation, researcher costs and allowances Travel and accommodation Other operating expenses

Page 104: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Resources

Tangible Resources Intangible Resources

Product Designs

Knowledge

Intellectual property

Research & Development

Creativity Brands

Team Specific Experience

Reputation

Organizational Routines

Relationships

Passion

People

Plant & Equipment

Property & Location

Technology

Cash & Other Finance

Access to inputs

Business model

Time

Organizational Culture

Page 105: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Wool Processing

Raw Woolen Materials

Skilled Employees

Incoming Trends & Ideas

Fabrics & Fashion

Skilled Designers

Technology (Universities & Research

Institutions)

Suppliers

Dye & Chemical Industries

International Supplier Chains Wholesalers

Retailers Domestic Supply Chains

Retailers

Wholesalers

Deve

lope

d Fir

m

Valu

e Cha

ins

Finance Houses

Support Businesses All kinds of Knowledge

Perceived Opportunities

Rese

arch

Strategies

Spin-off Opportunities

Critics & Media

Regulatory

Competitive Environment (Direct & Indirect Competitors)

Page 106: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Decision Maker

Inside the firm Father

Accountant

Bank

Customer

Employees

Property Owner

Competencies

Friends

Expectations

Suppliers

Page 107: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Auto Parts manufacturers

Automobile manufacturer

Coordination, Kanban, JIT, etc.

Independent Dealerships

Sales coordination, Custom Ordering

Service Centres

Consumers

In constant communication about service times and

other car owner information Road Side Assist

Schemes

Page 108: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Sources of Technology

Suppliers

Customers

Competitors

Regulators Other

Stakeholders

Critical

Necessary

Important

Useful

Not Important

Customer A

Customer B

Customer C

Wholesale A

Wholesale B

Supplier A Supplier B

Supplier C

Backup Supplier A

Backup Supplier

B+C

Supplier D

Supplier E

Accountant

Bank

Father

EPA

Taxation

Systems Software

Best Friend Competitor A

Competitor B

Competitor C

Stakeholder category

Priority

Page 109: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

A New Venture Checklist

Basic Feasibility of the venture• Can the product or service work?

• Is it legal?

Competitive Advantages of the New Venture• What specific competitive advantages will the product/service offer?• What are the competitive advantages of firms already in business?

• How long will it take for firms to respond?• Will the initial competitive advantage be maintained?

Buyer Decisions in the Venture• Who Are the customers likely to be?

• How much will each customer buy and how many customers are there?• Where are these customers located and how will they be serviced?

Marketing of the Goods and Services• How much will be spent of advertising and promotion?• What share of the market will the company capture?

• How long will it take to capture?• Who will perform the selling functions?

• How will prices be set?• How will they compare with competitors prices?

• How important is location and how will it be determined?• What distribution channels will be used – wholesale, retail, agents, direct?

• What are the sales targets? By when should they be met?• Can any orders be obtained before starting the business? How many?

Production of the Goods and Services• Will the company make or buy what it sells?

• Or will it use a combination of these two strategies?• Are sources of suppliers available at reasonable prices?

• How long will delivery take?• Have adequate lease arrangements for premises been made?

• Will the needed equipment be available on time?• Do any special problems with plant setup exist?

• How will quality be controlled?• How will returns and servicing be handled?

• How will pilferage, waste, spoilage, and scrap be controlled?

Staffing Decisions in the Venture• How will competence in each area of the business be ensured?

• Who will have to be hired? By when? How will they be found and recruited?• Will a banker, accountant, lawyer or other advisors be needed?

• How will replacements be obtained if key people leave?• Will special benefit schemes need to be arranged?

Control of the Venture• What records will be needed? When?

• Will any special controls be required? What are they? • Who will be responsible for them?

Financing the Venture

• How much will be needed for the development of the product or service?• How much will be needed for setting up operations?

• How much will be needed for working capital?• Where will the money come from?

• Which assumptions in the financial forecasts are most critical and uncertain?• What will be the return on equity, sales?

• How does it compare with the rest of the industry?• When and how will investors get their money back?

• What will be the need from the bank?• What will be the bank’s response?

Page 110: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?
Page 111: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Pitfalls to look for in Selecting New Ideas and Opportunities

• Lack of Objective Evaluation

• No real insight into the market

• Inadequate understanding of technical requirements

• Poor financial understanding

• Lack of Venture uniqueness

• Ignorance of legal issues

Page 112: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Why New Ventures Fail (look for anything fundamentally wrong)

• Insufficient Capital

• No business plan

• No managerial focus

• Inadequate records

• Lack of profit focus

• Cash flow

• Inadequate systems

• Failure to plan for taxation

• Inadequate resource management

• Break even point

Page 113: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Business Plan Assessment

There are 10 components of a business plan

1. Is your business plan thorough in all areas

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 114: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Executive Summary

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 115: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Description of the Business

Have you covered this in

the plan?

Is the answer clear? (Yes or

no)

Is the answer Complete? (Yes

or no)

What type of business will you have?

What products or services will you sell?

Why does it promise to be successful?

What is the growth potential?

How is it unique?

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 116: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

MarketingHave you

covered this in the plan?

Is the answer clear? (Yes

or no)

Is the answer Complete? (Yes or no)

Do you have a pricing strategy?

How big is the market?

Who will be your competitors?

How are their businesses prospering?

How will you promote sales?

What market share do you want?

Who will be your customers?

What A&P strategy will you use?

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 117: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

OperationsHave you

covered this in the plan?

Is the answer

clear? (Yes or no)

Is the answer

Complete? (Yes or no)

Have you identified a specific location?

Have you identified the advantages of this Location?

Are there any zoning or tax considerations?

Will you have access to transportation?

Will your suppliers be conveniently located?

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 118: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Management Have you covered

this in the plan?

Is the answer clear? (Yes or

no)

Is the answer

Complete? (Yes or

no)

Who will manage the business?

What qualifications do they have?

How many employees will you have?

What will they do?

How much will you pay them?

What consultants do you need?

What legal form of organisation will you have?

What regulations will affect your business?

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 119: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Financial

Have you covered

this in the plan?

Is the answer

clear? (Yes or no)

Is the answer

Complete? (Yes or no)

What is your total expected business income for the year? Quarterly for the next two years? (Forecast)

What is your expected monthly cash flow duringThe year?

Have you included a method of paying yourself?What sales volume do you need to

make a profit during the three years?

What will be the break even point?What are your projected assets,

liabilities, net worth?What are your financial needs?What are your funding sources?

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 120: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Critical RisksHave you covered

this in the plan?

Is the answer clear? (Yes or

no)

Is the answer

Complete? (Yes or

no)

What are the potential problems you have identified?

Have you calculated the risks?

What alternative courses of actionExist?

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 121: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Harvest StrategyHave you covered

this in the plan?

Is the answer clear? (Yes or

no)

Is the answer

Complete? (Yes or

no)

How have you planned for theOrderly transfer of the venture

Assets if ownership of the venture is Passed to a corporation?

Is there a continuity of businessStrategy for orderly transition?

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 122: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Milestone ScheduleHave you covered

this in the plan?

Is the answer

clear? (Yes or no)

Is the answer

Complete? (Yes or no)

How have you set your objectives?

Do you have deadlines for eachStage of your growth?

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 123: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Appendix & Bibliography

Have you covered this in the plan?

Is the answer

clear? (Yes or no)

Is the answer

Complete? (Yes or no)

Have you included any documentsDrawings, agreements, or other

Materials needed to supportThe plan?

Are there any names of references,Advisors, or technical sources

You should include?

Are there any other supporting documents?

5 Outstanding (thorough and complete in all areas)4 Very good (most areas covered but could use improvement in detail)

3 Good (some areas covered in detail but other areas missing)2 Fair (a few areas covered but very limited detail)

1 Poor (no written plans)

Page 124: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

SummaryComponents Points

Executive Summary

5 4 3 2 1

Description of the business

5 4 3 2 1

Marketing 5 4 3 2 1

Operations 5 4 3 2 1

Management 5 4 3 2 1

Financial 5 4 3 2 1

Critical Risks 5 4 3 2 1

Succession Planning

5 4 3 2 1

Milestone schedule

5 4 3 2 1

Appendix 5 4 3 2 1

Page 125: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Score

50 Outstanding (the ideal business plan)45-49 Very Good

40-44 Good (the plan is sound with a few areas that need to be refined)35-39 Above Average (this plan has some good areas but needs improvement

Before presentation)30-34 Average (some areas covered in detail yet other areas show

Weaknesses)20-29 Below average (most areas need greater detail and improvement)

Below 20 Poor (plan needs to be researched and documented much better)

Page 126: Opportunity, strategy & the evaluation of the business plan?

Thank You