PowerPoint Presentation

by

Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD

Professor, Operations Research & Financial EngineeringDirector, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (P Autonomous Vehicle EngineeringPrinceton University

Presented at

Inaugural Automated Vehicle Summit @ Fort MonmouthOctober 3, 2014

Opportunity toCreate Well-paying Jobs,Save Lives, Injuries and Family Disruptions, and Make Money by Establishing a World-class Center for Research, Certification and Commercializationof Automated Vehicles (aka SmartDrivingCars)

Quality of Life 101: Important ElementsEnvironmentClean air, water, EmploymentHigh Quality Jobs Correlated with Crime/Personal SafetyMobilitySafety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, Main Premise: Facilitating the Adoption of Smart Driving Technology:Creates High Quality Jobs, Improves Personal SafetyImproves Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, Improves the EnvironmentAll for FREE!

NOT: Future Vehicle Technologies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rx6keHpeYak

More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWj44GjrSs0

More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologieshttp://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/Subaru%20EyeSight_Commercial60secCrashTest.mp4http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/Subaru%20EyeSight_Commercial60secCrashTest.mp4

The Problem.We Love the Freedom & MobilityButContinuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/HIGHWAY_SING-A-LONG_%20BuildMeUpButtercup.mp4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjHXtGC13wo

Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012

We really Need to get to

Even though Safety Doesnt Sell, Some Automakers are Leading the WayUp to today: Primarily concerned with safety standards associated with Crash Mitigation (air bags, seat belts, crash worthiness, )

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/Subaru%20EyeSight_Commercial60secCrashTest.mp4

Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation Level 0 (No automation)The human is in complete and sole control of safety-critical functions (brake, throttle, steering) at all times. Level 1 (Function-specific automation) The human has complete authority, but cedes limited control of certain functions to the vehicle in certain normal driving or crash imminent situations. Example: electronic stability controlLevel 2 (Combined function automation) Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony (e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane centering) in certain driving situations. Enables hands-off-wheel and foot-off-pedal operation. Driver still responsible for monitoring and safe operation and expected to be available at all times to resume control of the vehicle. Example: adaptive cruise control in conjunction with lane centeringLevel 3 (Limited self-driving) Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions. Human can cede monitoring authority to vehicle, which must alert driver if conditions require transition to driver control. Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google carLevel 4 (Full self-driving automation) Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire trip. The human provides destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control during the trip. Vehicle may operate while unoccupied. Responsibility for safe operation rests solely on the automated systemSmartDrivingCars,Buses & Trucks

Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles What the Levels Deliver:Levels 1 -> 3: Increased Safety, Comfort & ConvenienceLevel 4 (Driverless Opportunity) : Efficiency, Equity Revolutionizes Mass Transit by enabling the provision of mobility without incurring a Labor CostThere is Fundamental Value Delivered and Need for Research, Certification and Commercialization throughout the evolution from Level 1 through Level 4

Intelligent Drive (active steering )BAS-Plus Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering )

Volvo Truck Emergency braking

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/2014%20E-Class%20Commercial%20--%20Hard%20to%20Imagine%20--%20Mercedes-Benz.mp4http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/MB_Clown_Commercial.mp4http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/MB_Commercial_Grim_Reaper.mp4In the Showroom Today

11Why New Jersey?Observation: Other States are have begun to jump on thisCalifornia & Googles Self-Driving Car InitiativeTurned to focus investment on intelligence automation of the individual vehicle letting the infrastructure to be optimized for the conventional driver.. Brilliant!!Enables Start small; grow fast Florida: Automated car takes test drive on Selmon ExpresswayMichigan: University of Michigan to build $6.5M track to test automated cars in Ann ArborTexas TTI Developing New Automated and Connected Transportation Test BedCalifornia NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research Center AmesAction Item:Get New Jersey and the NJ/NY/PA Region nvolved by Leveraging the Ft. Monmouth Facility. Create the Job, Improve mobility safety and the environment. Create the specifications and certifications for Automated Collision Avoidance Technology and eventually driverless vehicles.

NASA, Google announce lease at Ames Research Center Ameshttp://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/pdf/255793main_June.08.Agram.smallfile.pdf

Mercedes-Benz sends autonomous automobiles onto the USA's most extensive testing ground

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102049263

Why New Jersey?Observation: NJ Transit and many private companies operate one of the most extensive bus transit systems in the nationThe MTA and SEPTA also operate extensive bus transit systemsAverage Nationwide Bus Casualty & Liability Expense in 2011 = $8,069/BusAction Item:Create the specifications and certifications for Automated Collision Avoidance Technology for buses so as to substantially reduce the expected Bus Casualty & Liability exposure of NJ Transit and the other bus operators in the region and around the country.This suggests a very favorable business opportunity for Bus transit CompaniesNJs and the Regions Bus (and Truck) Operators have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.

Why New Jersey?Observation: New Jersey is the home of NAHQ of:Mercedes, BMW, Subaru, Jaguar, Volvo & FerrariAction Item:Create an environment that is conducive for these companies (and others) to successfully: enhance, test and accelerate the adoption of their versions of SmartDrivingCarsThis suggests a very favorable business opportunity for Car CompaniesNJs Car Manufacturers thus have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.

Why New Jersey?Observation: New Jersey is the home to major Wireless Communications companies:Verizon Wireless, Qualcomm (regional office)Only persons not engaged in driving should be consuming the services of these companies in a car.> 80% of the time there is only one person in a car.Communication services to this 80% market should be restricted to times when NHTSA Level 3 automation is available. Action Item:Create the SmartDrivingTechnology that is certified for NHTSA Level 3 automation for more & more Cars and Lane-Miles This creates an evermore favorable business opportunity for Wireless Service Providers. NJs Wireless Service Providers thus have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.

Why New Jersey?Observation: New Jersey is the home to major Insurance:Munich Re NA, NJ Manufacturers, Chubb Group, Prudential, SelectiveAction Item:Create the Research, Certification & Commercialization Environment : To Develop SmartDrivingTechnology (SDT) such that: PriceSDT < NetPresentValue { Expected {AccidentLiability w/o SDT } - Expected {AccidentLiability w SDT }}This suggests a very favorable business opportunity for InsurersNJs Insurance Companies thus have vested fiduciary and societal interests in contributing to the achievement of this action item.

Autonomous Car Benefits to New JerseyAmountItemUnits-50%Reduced chance of dying in a car accidentPer Collision Avoidance (Level 2) car~ 1Lives SavedPer 1,000 cars equipped with Level 2(= # new cars sold each day in New Jersey)~300Lives SavedPer year in NJ (Widespread Level 2 adoption)-50%Reduced chance of a collisionPer Collision Avoidance (Level 2) car~ 1 Injury AvoidedPer 15 cars equipped with Level 2~20,000Injuries AvoidedPer year in NJ (Widespread Level 2 adoption)>$125Self insurance paymentsPer year per NJ driver>$250Insurance discountPer year per NJ driver$1.25BReduced Insurance ClaimsPer year in NJ (Widespread Level 2 adoption)-50%Reduced EnergyWidespread autonomousTaxi Deployment-50%Reduced PollutionWidespread autonomousTaxi DeploymentEliminationRoad CongestionWidespread autonomousTaxi Deployment5X increaseRidership on NJ TransitWidespread autonomousTaxi Deployment1,000Well-paying jobsDirectly connected with the Center100,000Well-paying jobsCreated around the Center to implement Commercialization of the technology

Terrible News! Claims are going through the roof!

2011 Nationwide Bus Casualty and Liability Expense Source FTA NTDCasualty and Liability AmountVehicle-related$483,076,010.Total Buses59,871Sub-Total Casualty and Liability Amount Per Bus

$8,069/Bus/Year

The Cost of Installing an Active Collision Avoidance System on a Bus Could be Recovered in as Little as One Year Through Reductions in Casualty and Liability Claims

The Initial Project:Princeton University (with American Public Transit Association (APTA), Greater Cleveland Transit, and insurance pools from WA, CA, OH & VA)Focused on Research, Certification and CommercializationofSmartDriving Technology for BusesPending $5M Grant from Federal Transit Administration

Why Fort Monmouth?Observation: Ft Monmouth may well be one of the most hospitable sites for those with a Vested Interest in SmartDrivingTechnology to advance their intentions.Action Item:Create a Testing & Certification Environment for use by Those with a Vested Interest to collaboratively transition their products from Research to Full Commercialization

24The VisionariesFMERA: Vision for World-Class Advanced Technology Center @ The FortPrinceton University: Facilitating FMERAs Vision with a World-Class Center for Research, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDrivingCars (&Trucks & Buses) (RCCS) (pronounced R Sis)The TeamThe Players to be DraftedThe VenueThe McAfee Center and The Forts Roadways

The Coaching StaffCARTSCorporation for Autonomous Roadway & Transit SystemsAutomakersSuppliersFacilitatorsInsuranceUniversitiesPublic SectorMercedes Benz (HQ-NJ)ContinentalBertram CapitalNJ ManufacturersPrincetonNJ DMVBMW (HQ-NJ)BoschVerizonMunich ReMonmouthNJ TransitSubaru (HQ-NJ)DelphiAT&T Ins. Inst. for Hwy SafetyCCNY Reg. 2 URC NJ DoT FordTexas InstDCH AutoGroupState FarmNJITNJTPA+DVRPCVolvo autonomouStuffQualcommProgressiveU of MarylandFHWA+FTAJaguarMobilEyeVisLabGeicoRutgersMonmouth County

Modal DimensionSector DimensionCommercializationCertificationResearchTransitCarsTrucksCenters Activity Matrix

Vehicle BaysMcAfee Office Building ~ 100,000sfSupport BuildingsPrinceton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth McAfee Complex1250 x 865 ~ 25.8 acres

Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort Monmouth Exclusive Use Roadways Area~ 60 acresVehicle BaysMcAfee Office Building ~ 100,000sfSupport Buildings

Princeton University Center for Research of SmartDrivingCars (CRS) at Fort MonmouthMixed Use Roadways The Fort ~ 1 sq. mileExclusive Use Roadways

Near-term Schedule/ MilestonesDateItemNotesMay 7, 2014Creation of ProspectusMay 14, 2014Meeting with the FMERA Staff & Committees Week of June 2Meeting of Potential Founding MembersMB, BMW, Subaru, Verizon, Volvo, NJM, Munich Re, NJ DoTLater in JunePublic Announcement of Centers existenceMonday, June 30Launch of the Membership Recruiting beginning with the creation of a planTuesday, July 15Major Unveiling & recruiting event @ TRB Automated Vehicle ConferenceCocktail reception @ SF Airport HyattFriday Oct 3Inaugural Automated Vehicle SummitMcAfee Center, Fort Monmouth

Thank You

alaink@princeton.edu

www.SmartDrivingCar.comDiscussion!