optimising distributed generation and energy storage€¦ · optimising distributed generation and...
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Optimising distributed generation and energy storage
ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME
Dr Alex Wonhas
2XEP, 3 April 2014
ENERGY FLAGSHIP
Do you remember 1976?
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Australia’s Future Grid Forum• Long-term orientation to 2050 to demonstrate
key policy and technology choices not constrained by near term electoral cycles
• Whole-of-system to provide credible projections and quantitative analytics especially of the role of networks
• Industry-led to enable bold and informed discussion that examines benefits and drawbacks of different outlooks
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Participants Generators
TNSPs
DNSPs
Government & Regulators
Energy Retailers
Endusers, NGOs & Others
Suppliers / Business
ACOSSAMIRACECCEFCEECGrattan InstituteSmart Grid AustThe Climate InstituteTotal Environment CtrUniversity of Sydney
Stanwell CorporationHydro TasmaniaESAA
GEAlstomAmpControlErnst & YoungLandis+GyrSiemensStockland
DRETDCCEE
AERAEMCAEMO
ARENABREE
State Govt: Qld, SA & VicAust Local Govt Assoc
Grid Australia: ElectranetSP AusnetPowerlinkTransendTransgridWestern Power
AusgridAurora Energy CitipowerEnergexErgon EnergySA Power NtwksWestern Power
ERAAAGLOrigin Energy
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Demand model
ESM TNEP 24C DiSCoM
Customer impact
model
Reporting
GALLM
Modelling framework
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1.Further electricity price rises are expected, even without a carbon price
2.The electricity system may transition from centralised to decentralised structure
3.Optimising energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage and the use of cost competitive gas can maintain energy affordability
Key messages
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1. Further electricity price rises expected
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
20
13
$/M
Wh
Scenario 1: 'Set and forget' Scenario 2: 'Rise of the prosumer'
Scenario 3: 'Leaving the grid' Scenario 4: 'Renewables thrive'
Scenario 1 with zero carbon price Scenario 1 with high carbon price
Scenario 1 with uncertain carbon price
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• Disconnecting from the grid as a residential consumer is projected to be economically viable from around 2030 to 2040 when independent power systems are expected to be able to match retail prices of between 35 c/kWh and 40 c/kWh as battery costs fall.
• Onsite generation is projected to reach between 19 per cent and 46 per cent of total generation by 2050, up from 8 per cent today
• Network utilisation might decrease as a result of disconnection, despite efforts in managing peak demand
2. The electricity system may transition from centralised to decentralised structure
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
%
Scenario 1: 'Set and forget'
Scenario 2: 'Rise of the prosumer'
Scenario 3: 'Leaving the grid'
Scenario 4: 'Renewables thrive'
Onsite generation share of supply
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Projected consumption – all connected customers, taking away all DG supply
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
TWh
Scenario 1: 'Set and forget'
Scenario 2: 'Rise of the prosumer'
Scenario 3: 'Leaving the grid'
Scenario 4: 'Renewables thrive'
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3. Optimising energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage and cost competitive gas can maintain affordability
0
4
8
12
16
20
Average earner, 2030 Average earner, 2050 Pensioner, 2030 Pensioner, 2050
%
2013 electricity bill (6000 kWh/yr)
Scenario 1: 'Set and forget'
Scenario 2: 'Rise of the prosumer'
Scenario 3: 'Leaving the grid'
Scenario 4: 'Renewables thrive'
0.3% p.a. reduction in electricity intensity of households
0.7% p.a. reduction in electricity intensity of households
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Energy FlagshipPaul Graham
Chief Economist
t +61 2 4960 6061e [email protected] www.csiro.au/energy
ENERGY FLAGSHIP
Thank youEnergy FlagshipAlex Wonhas
Flagship Director
t +61 2 9490 5059e [email protected] www.csiro.au/energy
Energy FlagshipMark Paterson
FGF Chair
t +61 4 5984 1006e [email protected] www.csiro.au/energy