8/13/2019 Optimization of Decision Process ina Theory of Financial Instability

1/7

www.sfahlu.fe/rwh Zhsherfd ab ]`rkl Hf`b`gy S k. :, B`. :9 @ft`jhr :?55

_ujkasdhl jy Vfahlu _rhss

8/13/2019 Optimization of Decision Process ina Theory of Financial Instability

2/7

www.sfahlu.fe/rwh Zhsherfd ab ]`rkl Hf`b`gy S k. :, B`. :9 @ft`jhr:?55

AVVB 51:6-6145 H-AVVB 51:6-611T d`usabm prafhs fkagjhl, s` g`rtmemhs whrh rhcabebfhl et e k`whr

abthrhst reth jhfeush es tdh d`ush jhfegh w`rtd g`rh at wes c`kk`whl jy e k`whr reth g`rtmemh ebl e g`rtmemh wes

emeab rhcabebfhl ubtak e j`rr`whr jhfegh tdh `wbhr `c tdh pr`phrty, peyabm hxfhpta`bekky k`w abthrhsts `vhr tdh wd`kh

phra`l `c tdh g`rtmemh (M``ldert, :??1).

@b t`p `c tdet tdh jebis sterthl t` assuh shfuratahs fekkhl f`kkethrekazhl g`rtmemh `jkameta`bs (FG@s) `b e kermh sfekh (es

tdh gen`r typh `c eb essht-jefihl shfuraty) pursuebt t` pr`fhlurhs lhcabhl ab 5146 jy tdh Carst J`st`b jebi ebl

Vek`g`b Jr`tdhrs. \dus, tdh jebis lasp`shl `c rasiy g`rtmemhs, sdactabm tdh lhceukt rasi `c d`gh g`rtmemhs ebl ekk tdh

rhkethl tdrhets t` eb abvhst`r.

\dh g`rtmemh geriht, tdus, sparekkhl `ut `c tdh jebis f`btr`k. Carst, g`st `c g`rtmemhs whrh mrebthl tdr`umd

elvas`rs/abthrghlaerahs (ekg`st 3?%) wd` ecthr f`bfkulabm tdh emrhhghbt whrh rhkheshl cr`g eby rhsp`bsajakaty c`r

curtdhr f`bshquhbfhs erasabm cr`g sambabm tdh emrhhghbt. Vhf`bl, jebis lasp`sabm tdh f`kkethrekazhl g`rtmemh

`jkameta`bs whrh b`t abthrhsthl ab td`r`umd vhttabm `c p`thbtaek j`rr`whrs hf`b`gaf frhlajakaty (Vai`rie, ]aetrei,

:?55).

Et tdh tagh wdhb tdh geriht `phrethl ab e stejakh gebbhr watd`ut eby ckuftueta`bs, geiabm pr`cat `b g`rtmemh-cabebfhl

rhek hsteth wes walhsprhel. \dh wd`kh ghfdebasg, d`whvhr, fheshl t` `phreth ab tdh weih `c tdh XV hf`b`gaf

l`wbturb ab :??3-:??=. \` stevh `cc tdh abcketa`b rasi tdh Chl wes c`rfhl t` abfrhesh tdh abthrhst reths, wdafd khl t`

abs`kvhbfy `c j`rr`whrs, tdus sdactabm tdh rasi `c peyghbt `bt` abvhst`rs. \dh abvhst`rs g`stky abfkulhl abvhstghbt

cubls, jebis, absurebfh f`gpebahs, `r `tdhr f`gpebahs wdafd purfdeshl shfuratahs ab tdas geriht shmghbt. Geby `c

tdhsh abstatuta`bs pkubmhl abt` gukta gakka`b lhjts ebl t` ev`al m`abm just tdhy del t` abfur k`ebs cr`g `tdhr jebis t`

lasfdermh tdhar kaejakatahs.

\dh vekuh `c tdh shft`r wes damd es tdh cuhkkhl lhgebl c`r g`rtmemh hbdebfhl tdh vekuh `c tdh rhek hsteth geriht ebl tdh

retabm emhbfahs `cthb f`bchrrhl tdh damdhst retabm EEE `b tdas typh `c shfuratahs. ]dhb e kermh p`rta`b `c j`rr`whrs

whrh ubejkh t` pey `cc tdhar kaejakatahs, tdhrh wes e lhfkabh ab cabebfaek abstrughbts jefihl jy k`ebs. Eb hbc`rfhl

shfuratazeta`b `c g`rtmemhs (shkkabm `cc tdh wd`kh g`rtmemh t` hxthrbek hbtatahs `r ats p`rta`b jefihl jy abf`gh cr`g

g`rtmemh) sprhel tdh rasi `bt` tdh mk`jek gerihts, wdafd ab turb feushl e mk`jek kaqualaty frasas (trammhrhl jy kefi `c

p`ssajakatahs t k`fekazh tdh rasi ublhrkyabm g`rtmemh-jefihl shfuratahs) (Jhbhlyfzui, J`rufd, :??1).

Ab g`st feshs tdh frasas g`st lhhpky ecchfthl `rlabery ph`pkh `c tdh sphfacaf f`ubtry `r rhma`b wdhrh lhvekueta`b t``i

pkefh. Ab tdh mk`jek frasas `c tdh :5stfhbtury es geby es babh `c tdh kermhst jebiruptfahs whrh rebihl `b tdh kast `c ::

g`st sphftefuker jebiruptfahs hvhr (tdhy whrh `b t`p `c tdh kast) (Z`ss, :?55). ]dhrhes ab thrgs `c vekuh, tdh t`tek vekuh

`c babh jebiruptfahs pr`gpthl jy tdh regacafeta`bs `c tdh cabebfaek frasas ab :??= eg`ubthl t` `vhr XVL 5.6 trakka`b(XVL 5,6

8/13/2019 Optimization of Decision Process ina Theory of Financial Instability

3/7

www.sfahlu.fe/rwh Zhsherfd ab ]`rkl Hf`b`gy S k. :, B`. :9 @ft`jhr :?55

_ujkasdhl jy Vfahlu _rhss

Gefr`-prulhbtaek suphrvasa`b f`blufthl jy tdh Hur`pheb Vysthgaf Zasi J`erl HZZV fdermhl watdg`bat`rabm ebl esshssabm p`thbtaek gefr`hf`b`gaf tdrhets ab tdh cabebfaek systhg (pr`valabm eb herkywerbabm `c systhg-walh rasis, assuabm rhf`gghbleta`bs c`r sf`ph ebl larhfta`b `c efta`bs ab `rlhr t`

tefikh tdhsh rasis). \dh J`erl as sd`rhl up ab ats elgabastretavh, k`mastaf, stetastafs ebl abc`rgeta`b

`phreta`bs jy tdh Hur`pheb Fhbtrek Jebi HFJ (eks` teiabm elvebtemh `c hxphrtash `c beta`bek fhbtrek

jebis ebl suphrvasabm abstatuta b) wdakh rhteababm ats eut`b`gy. Ab vahw c tdh sambacafebt rhsp`bsajakaty `c

tdh HZZV at as tdh rhsp`bsajakaty `c tdh HFJ prhsalhbt t` suphrvash tdas `rmeb (et khest tdh c`r tdh carst pert

`c ats cavh yher thrg) (Zhmuketa`b @N K 665/5, :?5?),

Gafr`-prulhbtaek suphrvasa`b jy tdh Hur`pheb Vysthg `c Cabebfaek Vuphrvas`rs HVCV (Zhmuketa`bF@G 8?6, :??1) f`vhrabm e bhtw`ri `c beta`bek cabebfabm suphrvas`rs ab tdh HX ghgjhr steths t`mhtdhr

watd tdrhh bhw fhbtrek suphrvasabm abstatuta`bs> Hur`pheb Jebiabm Eutd`raty HJE, Hur`pheb Vhfuratahs

ebl Gerihts Eutd`raty HVGE ebl Hur`pheb Absurebfh ebl @ffupeta`bek _hbsa`bs Eutd`raty HA@_E

(Larhftavh ???3 F@L, :?55).

Ab tdas wey tdh Hur`pheb Vysthg `c Cabebfaek Vuphrvas`rs (HVBC) jhmeb t` `phreth ab Nebuery :?55 hgjrefabm saxgen`r erhes `c tdh f`ggubaty es whkk es l`ghstaf `bhs (Zhmuketa`b @N K 665/5, :?5?, @N K 66/5:, :?5?, @N K 665/58,

:?5?).

;Camurh 6 ej`ut dhrh2

G`rh`vhr, tdh Hur`pheb Vuphrvas`ry Eutd`ratahs HVEs, rhpkefabm tdh hxastabm f`ggatthhs `phretabm ab K`bl`b,

Crebicurt ebl _eras, devh e ubacahl strufturh f`gprashl `c e J`erl `c Vuphrvas`rs, Gebemhghbt J`erl, Fdearphrs`b,

Hxhfutavh Larhft`r ebl J`erl `c Epphek, f`gg`b c`r tdrhh abstatuta`bs. Ab ekk abstatuta`bs tdh ihy `jkameta`bs ebl

lhfasa`b geiabm erh vhsthl ab tdh J`erl `c Vuphrvas`rs. \dh J`erl as f`gp`shl `c rhprhshbtetavhs `c ekk beta`bek

suphrvas`ry eutd`ratahs (watd ramdt `c tdh v`afh) ebl `bh rhprhshbtetavh, watd`ut tdh ramdt `c tdh v`afh, cr`g> tdh

Hur`pheb F`ggassa`b, Hur`pheb Vysthgaf Zasi J`erl es whkk es rhprhshbtetavhs `c tw` rhgeababm suphrvas`ry

8/13/2019 Optimization of Decision Process ina Theory of Financial Instability

4/7

www.sfahlu.fe/rwh Zhsherfd ab ]`rkl Hf`b`gy S k. :, B`. :9 @ft`jhr:?55

AVVB 51:6-6145 H-AVVB 51:6-611T

Hstejkasd damd quekaty f`bsasthbt suphrvas`ry preftafhs ebl steblerls c`r tdh cabebfaek geriht ab tdh HX(abfkulabm td`sh rhkethl t` rhmuketa`b pr`nhfts ebl hxhfutavh thfdbafek steblerls),

_ertafapeth ab agpkhghbteta`b ebl eppkafeta`b `c khmekky jablabm HX efts (shttabm up e f`gg`bsuphrvas`ry `rmebazeta`bek fukturh ebl f`ubthreftabm rhmuket`ry erjatremh, f`bluftabm ghlaeta`b eblshttkhghbt `c laspuths jhtwhhb rhkhvebt `rmebs, efta`bs ab satueta`bs `c abfrheshl rasi ebl hxtre`rlabery

feshs, hbsurabm f`dhrhbt `phreta`bs ferrahl `ut jy j`erls `c suphrvas`ry eutd`ratahs),

Geabteab f``phreta`b watd tdh Vysthgaf Zasi J`erl, b`tejky watd rhmerl t` eppr`praeth hxfdebmh `cabc`rgeta`b ebl hbsurh e f``rlabethl rhsp`bsh ab f`bbhfta`b watd rhf`gghbleta`bs ebl werbabms jy tdh

HZZV,

Cefakateth f`ggubafeta`b ebl lhkhmeta`b c tesis ebl rhsp`bsajakatahs t` rhkhvebt suphrvas`ry eutd`ratahs, _hrgebhbt g`bat`rabm c cabebfaek gerihts watd rhmerl t` eppr`praeth f`gphthbfh, Ebekysh gutuek esshssghbts c rhkhvebt suphrvas`ry eutd`ratahs es whkk es ebekysh hf`b`gaf gerihts, Hbdebfh shfuraty `c steihd`klhrs/fkahbts `c cabebfaek gerihts (hefd suphrvas`ry eutd`raty t` tdh hxthbt `c

tdhar rhkhvebt wb f`gphthbfh),

Ghesurh systhgaf rasi `b e rhmuker jesas ebl lhvhk`p ebl f``rlabeth rhf`vhry sfdhghs ab tdh fesh `c tdhHur`pheb Jebiabm Eutd`raty ebl tdh Hur`pheb Vhfuratahs Eutd`raty lhvasabm ghtd`ls c`r ublhrteiabm

rhf`vhry pr`fhhlabms c`r steihd`klhrs `b cabebfaek gerihts `r ceakabm abstatuta`bs9 hvekuetabm bhfhssery

cabebfabm rhs`urfhs (HVCV, :?55).

\dh Hur`pheb Vuphrvas`ry Eutd`ratahs hbn`y tdh supp`rt ebl f``phreta`b `c tdh F`ggatthh `b tdh Mk`jek Cabebfaek

Vysthg FMCV es `bh `c tdh F`ggatthhs `c tdh Jebi c`r Abthrbeta`bek Vhttkhghbts.

Furrhbt tesis `c tdh F`ggatthh c`fus `b hbsurabm stejakaty ab cabebfaek es whkk es g`bhtery cahkls wdakh ellrhssabm

tdrhets t` tdh mk`jek cabebfaek systhg, ebl abfkulh es c`kk`ws>

Alhbtacyabm ebl esshssabm p`thbtaek tdrhets ab mk`jek cabebfabm gerihts (f`bstebt g`bat`rabm, rasi ebekysas,esshssghbt c gefr`hf`b`gaf satueta`bs),

Curtdhrabm tdh ublhrsteblabm `c trhbls ebl ghfdebasgs `ffurrabm ab furrhbt cabebfaek gerihts(agpkafeta`bs c`r fhbtrek jebis, rhsp`bsajakaty),

_ursuabm tdh p`kafy `c rhf`gghbleta`bs ebl m``l preftafhs tdr`umd f`btabuhl hxfdebmh `c abc`rgeta`b,sd`rabm up rhsakahbt ebl rhsp`bsajkh cabebfaek gerihts ab pr`g`tabm suatejkh `rmebazeta`bek ebl khmek

s`kuta`bs (Gatrhme-Bahstrn, :?55).

\dus, at as hvalhbt tdet at hgjrefhs e walh sphftrug `c `ptagazeta`b efta`bs abthblhl t` cabekky pr`valh e g`rh hcchftavh

`pp`rtubaty c`r esshssabm rasi `c cabebfaek abstejakaty ebl khelabm t` hcchftavh rhmuketa`bs ab tdas rhsphft.

8/13/2019 Optimization of Decision Process ina Theory of Financial Instability

5/7

www.sfahlu.fe/rwh Zhsherfd ab ]`rkl Hf`b`gy S k. :, B`. :9 @ft`jhr :?55

_ujkasdhl jy Vfahlu _rhss W \. \rusi`kesia, _rzyfzyby a siutia iryzysw cabebs`wyfd wh wsp fzhsbygwahfah YFeushs ebl hcchfts `c cabebfaek frashs et prhshbt leyW, ]ylewbaftw` Xbawhrsythtu w Jaeygst`iu,Jaeyst`i, 58-53.

F`ubfak Zhmuketa`b (HX) B`. 5?13/:?5? `c 5= B`vhgjhr :?5? f`bchrrabm sphfacaf tesis up`b tdh Hur`pheb Fhbtrek

Jebi f`bfhrbabm tdh cubfta`babm `c tdh Hur`pheb Vysthgaf Zasi J`erl, @N K 665/58.5:.:?5?.

Lhttr`, Fd. (:??4). Creul m`bh wakl. _yregal, _`bza sfdhghs lasmuashl es vekal abvhstghbt `pp`rtubatahs, \dh steth

n`urbek rhmasthr, Vprabmcahkl, Akkab`as, :6, 6.

Larhftavh `c tdh Hur`pheb _erkaeghbt ebl `c tdh F`ubfak (:?55) eghblabm Larhftavhs :??6/=5/HF ebl :??1/564/HF ab

rhsphft `c tdh p`whrs `c tdh Hur`pheb Absurebfh ebl @ffupeta`bek _hbsa`bs Eutd`raty ebl tdh Hur`pheb Vhfuratahs

ebl Gerihts Eutd`raty, Jrusshks ???3 (F@L),51/?5/:?55.

Lubjer, N., L`bekl, L. (:??1). \dh Z``ts `c tdh Cabebfaek Frasas> ]d` As t` Jkegh0, \dh Fhbthr c`r _ujkaf Abthmraty,

]esdabmt`b, ?8/?3.

Hur`pheb Vysthg `c Cabebfaek Vuphrvasa`b (HVCV). (:?55). _`kasd Cabebfaek Vuphrvasa`b Eutd`raty, ]ersew, 5-W _rzyjyksie-Iepufasie, ]. Deblsfdih, N.,Zybia cabebs`wh a ujhzpahfzhbae. B`wh phrsphitywy abstytufna a abstrughbtw YCabebfaek gerihts ebl absurebfhs.

Bhw phrsphftavhs c`r abstatuta`bs ebl abstrughbtW, ]ylewbaftw` Xbawhrsythtu Hi`b`gafzbhm` w _`zbebau,

_`zbe, 6W ejasie, N. (hl.) Z`ke galzyber`l`whn wspprefy cabebs`whn w tw`rzhbau b`rg arhmukefna `str`b`fa`wyfd zejhzpahfzenfyfd stejakb`systhgw cabebs`wyfd YE r`kh `c abthrbeta`bek cabebfaekf``phreta`b ab hstejkasdabm steblerls ebl prulhbtaek rhmuketa`bs wdafd sechmuerl stejakaty `c cabebfaek systhgsW,

]ylewbaftw` Eielhgaa Hi`b`gafzbhn ag. Ier`ke Elegahfiahm` w Iet`wafefd, Iet`wafh,

8/13/2019 Optimization of Decision Process ina Theory of Financial Instability

6/7

www.sfahlu.fe/rwh Zhsherfd ab ]`rkl Hf`b`gy S k. :, B`. :9 @ft`jhr:?55

AVVB 51:6-6145 H-AVVB 51:6-611T `wb stuly.

_r`sphraty.

Gexagazeta`b c hbtrhprhbhurs pr`cats

@ptagastaf sd`rt-thrg c`rhfests bhmkhftabml`wbturb (`r rethl jy rasi `c absambacafebt sfekh

fk`sh t` ?)

Abfrhesh ab abvhstghbt, abfurrabm k`w-reth frhlats

watd sagpkacahl jebi rhmuketa`bs

Abvhstghbt j``g et saguktebh`us

frhlat hxpebsa`b

Abfrhesh ab abthrhst reths, rhstrafta`bs ab frhlatsuppky, pebaf, gess rhshkkabm, c cabebfaek

abstrughbts shfurhl jy frhlats

Frasas

(eg`bm tdh `tdhrs> `c abvhst`rs,

d`ushd`kls, cabebfhs `c e mavhb

f`ubtr

5 :

6