optimizing jack-up vessel chartering strategies for offshore wind … · optimizing jack-up vessel...
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![Page 1: Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind … · Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen Odin Kirkeby](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062914/5e785b4e3d2a0103677f430b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering
Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms
Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen
Odin Kirkeby
Marielle Christiansen
Magnus Stålhane
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 2
Outline
• Motivation
• Problem description
• Mathematical model
• Preliminary results
• Further research
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 3
Jack-up vessel
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 4
Motivation
*from Dinwoodie et al (2015)
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 5
Motivation
*from Dinwoodie et al (2015)
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 6
Jack-up vessel charter rates
*Based on data from Dalgic et al (2013)
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 7
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Current Jack-Up Charter Practices
• Options:
• Annual charter
• Fix-on-fail
• Batch-repair
• Difficult to determine best option
• Obstacles:
• Inflexibility
• Expensive
• Determining optimal batch
• Uncertainty
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 9
Optimal jack-up strategy depends on:
• Size of the wind farm
• Weather conditions at the wind farm site
• Failure rate of the components
• Charter rate for jack-up vessels
• Capabilities of the jack-up vessels
• Goal: To determine when, and for how long, to charter in
a jack-up vessel in order to minimize expected total O&M
cost.
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 12
Mathematical model
• Uncertain parameters:
– When failures that require jack-up vessels occur
– The weather conditions at the wind farm site each day of the
planning horizon
• Two-stage stochastic optimization model
– First stage: Decide when, and for how long, to charter a jack-up
vessel
– Second stage: Given first stage decision, how to deploy the jack-
up vessel in order to minimize the downtime cost
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 13
First stage model
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 14
First stage modelDaily charter rate
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 15
First stage modelMobilisation rate
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 16
First stage modelExpected total downtime cost
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 17
First stage model
Must mobilize vessel to have it available
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 18
First stage model
Must keep vessel for a minimum number of
days, if mobilised
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 19
Second stage model
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 20
Second stage modelDowntime cost of fixinga failure on a given day
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 21
Second stage modelPenalty cost applied if a
failure is not fixed
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 22
Second stage model
Faliures can only be fixed in time periods the vessel is chartered. Repair time is weather dependent
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 23
Second stage model
All failures must be fixed, otherwise a penalty is added
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 24
Solution method
• The two-stage stochastic programming model is solved
using scenario generation and then solving the
deterministic equivalent
• Each scenario represents one realisation of one year
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 26
Scenario
time
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 27
Scenario
time
Wave height
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 28
Scenario
time
Wave height Wind speed
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 29
Scenario
time
Wave height Wind speed
Failure oftype 1
Failure oftype 2
Failure oftype 1
Failure oftype 3
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 30
Scenarios
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario n
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 31
Scenarios
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario n
All scenarios represent different possiblerealisations of the weather and failureparameters based on sampling
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 32
Scenarios
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario n
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 33
First stage decisions – must be the same
in all scenarios
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario n
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 34
First stage decisions – must be the same
in all scenarios
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario n
The decision of when to charter a vessel must be the same in all
scenarios
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 35
Second stage decisions – different for
each scenario
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario n
What a vessel does once it is chartered, depends on the scenario
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 36
Second stage decision – when to fix a
given failure
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 37
Second stage decision – when to fix a
given failure
Why wait?
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 38
Second stage decision – when to fix a
given failure
Why wait?
weather conditions not good enough to perform
maintenance
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 39
Second stage decision – when to fix a
given failure
Why wait?
Or vessel not charteredin these periods
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 40
Downtime costs – depends on wind
speed
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 46
Preliminary Results
• The model is able to solve one-year problems
with 100 scenarios
• Weather conditions at site and vessel
capabilities greatly affect results
• Anything from 50 to 200 days of charter for a
80-100 turbine wind farm
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology 47
Future reasearch
• Ensure realistic data
– Huge differences in values used in different research
• Verify model results in a cost of energy simulation model
• Compare strategy with batch-repair strategy
• Add possibility of sub-leasing
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Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering
Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms
Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen
Odin Kirkeby
Marielle Christiansen
Magnus Stålhane
![Page 41: Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind … · Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen Odin Kirkeby](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062914/5e785b4e3d2a0103677f430b/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering
Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms
Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen
Odin Kirkeby
Marielle Christiansen
Magnus Stålhane
![Page 42: Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind … · Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen Odin Kirkeby](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062914/5e785b4e3d2a0103677f430b/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering
Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms
Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen
Odin Kirkeby
Marielle Christiansen
Magnus Stålhane
![Page 43: Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind … · Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen Odin Kirkeby](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062914/5e785b4e3d2a0103677f430b/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Optimizing Jack-Up Vessel Chartering
Strategies for Offshore Wind Farms
Andreas Jebsen Mikkelsen
Odin Kirkeby
Marielle Christiansen
Magnus Stålhane