Opting for “Long Term Operations”

Technical, economic and regulatory considerations

MARC ConferenceJune 8, 2010

Sean Bushart, EPRISr. Program Manager

2© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

The Long Term Operation Challenge

1929 Marmon(80 years old) 1969 Cadillac

(40 years old) 2009 Ford HEV Escape

Cost-Effective, Environmentally Sustainable, Safe Operation with High Performance Through 40, 80 or More Years

3© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Long Term Operations: Presentation Overview

• The Big Picture: Determining the Electricity Generation Mix of the Future

• Generation Example: Coal Fleet

– Business Decision Making Drivers

– Technology Drivers and EPRI Roles

• Generation Example: Nuclear Fleet

– Business and Regulatory Drivers

– Technology Drivers and EPRI Roles

4© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

A Low Carbon Future Needs A Full Portfolio of Technologies

EIA Base Case 2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

U.S

. E

lect

ric

Sec

tor

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(mil

lio

n m

etri

c to

ns)

58% reduction in 2030 from 2005 level is technically feasible using a full portfolio of technologies

Efficiency

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossil Effic, CCS

PEV

Electro-Technologies

EPRI Prism: Technical Potential to Achieve CO2 Reductions Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible.

5© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Current to Future U.S. Electricity Generation Based on 2009 Prism

Coal

Coal

GasGas

Nuclear

NuclearCoal + CCS

Renewables

“TODAY” “FUTURE”

6© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Coal Plants: Business Decision Making Factors for Long Term Operations

“Trilemma” of security of supply, regulatory uncertainty, cost

– Impact of large scale deployment of variable output renewables on the existing generation fleet

– Regulatory uncertainty, e.g. ash, CO2, power plant water usage, and unknown costs associated with these issues

– Financing uncertainty and financial risk

7© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EPRI R&D Response: Provide strategic guidance on the new wave of industry decisions

Market-based simulation of alternative cycling/ shutdown strategies

Technologies to shift cycling burden

Complexities of retirement planning due to changing regional assets

Synergies with modeling pace and costs of CO2 compliance, incl. technology choice

Regional case studies of factors affecting timelines

AccommodatingCycling

RetirementStrategy

Timelines forCapacity Turnover

timing mission

8© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

R&D Focus: Advanced Coal, Carbon Capture and Storage

Cost-effective coal-based generation with near-zero emissions and carbon capture and storage

Economics/Planning– Technology knowledge databases– Fuel market analysis

• Future Assets– Advanced combustion design/performance/demonstration– IGCC design/cost improvements/demonstrations

• Deploying Carbon Capture and Storage– Design for CCS Retrofit – Capture and storage technologies

9© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Nuclear Long Term Operations: Both a Technical and Regulatory Challenge

• Original fleet of plants licensed by the NRC for 40 years of operation

• License renewal process established to extend operations from 40-60 years.– EPRI led technical basis for first plants (e.g. Calvert Cliffs)

– NEI led with NRC interactions

• R&D underway to extend beyond 60 years– EPRI/ DOE collaborating on the technical basis effort

– NEI is industry regulatory interface

– Utility Executives: Significant investment –likely required to make this leap (early estimates of $350M-$1B/ unit)

10© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Nuclear Long-Term Operations: EPRI R&D Scope

Provide the technical basis for license renewal and life extension decisions beyond 60 or 80 years

• Aging of passive structures and components

• On-line diagnostics to prevent equipment failures

• Managing crack growth in primary system metals

• Realistic and efficient safety analysis tools

11© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

R&D Focus: Materials Aging

Extension of Materials Degradation Matrix for primary metals for failure mechanisms to 80 years

PZR & RC pipe-surgeline connections

Safety & reliefvalve nozzles

RCP suction& discharge

Charging inletnozzles

Safety injection &SDC inlet nozzle

Spray nozzles

Let-down & drain nozzles

CEDM motor housing

CEDM/ICI nozzles to RV head welds

ICI nozzles-ICI guide tubes

Shutdown cooling outlet nozzle

PZR surge line nozzle

Heat transfer tubing

Tubesheet (TS) cladding

Tube-TS cladding weld

Partition plate & welds

Primary nozzle closurerings & welds

Bottom channel head drain tube & welds

PZR instrumentnozzles

PZR heatersleeves

RVH vent nozzle

Monitor tube

RCS instrument nozzles

Guide lugsflow skirt

PZR & RC pipe-surgeline connections

Safety & reliefvalve nozzles

RCP suction& discharge

Charging inletnozzles

Safety injection &SDC inlet nozzle

Spray nozzles

Let-down & drain nozzles

CEDM motor housing

CEDM/ICI nozzles to RV head welds

ICI nozzles-ICI guide tubes

Shutdown cooling outlet nozzle

PZR surge line nozzle

Heat transfer tubing

Tubesheet (TS) cladding

Tube-TS cladding weld

Partition plate & welds

Primary nozzle closurerings & welds

Bottom channel head drain tube & welds

PZR instrumentnozzles

PZR heatersleeves

RVH vent nozzle

Monitor tube

RCS instrument nozzles

Guide lugsflow skirt

12© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Demo Plant Activities:Ginna and Nine Mile Point 1

• EPRI, U.S. DOE, and Constellation Energy → 3-year collaboration to demonstrate the assessment of aging concerns

– Plants are beyond 40 year life• Examine data, inspect and test for aging degradation• Pilot technical products for long term operations

– Developing lead tasks jointly

• Key results to date

– Comprehensive containment examination

– Incremental reactor internals inspection for > 60 years

13© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Conclusions

• Meeting the objectives of a low carbon future will require a full portfolio of generation technologies

• Specific selections of retrofit, retire, replace, or extend must be made on case-by-case basis

– based upon specific business and regulatory drivers

• EPRI R&D is:

– helping utilities to make these decisions

– overcoming the technology gaps for “long term operations” in a cost-effective manner

14© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity