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<p>IntroductionChapter 1</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.1</p> <p>The Nature of Derivatives</p> <p>A derivative is an instrument whose value depends on the values of other more basic underlying variables</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.2</p> <p>1</p> <p>Examples of Derivatives</p> <p> Futures Contracts Forward Contracts Swaps Options</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.3</p> <p>Ways Derivatives are UsedTo hedge risks To speculate (take a view on the future direction of the market) To lock in an arbitrage profit To change the nature of a liability To change the nature of an investment without incurring the costs of selling one portfolio and buying anotherFundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.4</p> <p>2</p> <p>Futures ContractsA futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a certain time in the future for a certain price By contrast in a spot contract there is an agreement to buy or sell the asset immediately (or within a very short period of time)</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.5</p> <p>Exchanges Trading FuturesChicago Board of Trade Chicago Mercantile Exchange Euronext Eurex BM&amp;F (Sao Paulo, Brazil) and many more (see list at end of book)</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.6</p> <p>3</p> <p>Futures PriceThe futures prices for a particular contract is the price at which you agree to buy or sell It is determined by supply and demand in the same way as a spot price</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.7</p> <p>Electronic TradingTraditionally futures contracts have been traded using the open outcry system where traders physically meet on the floor of the exchange Increasingly this is being replaced by electronic trading where a computer matches buyers and sellers</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.8</p> <p>4</p> <p>Examples of Futures ContractsAgreement to: buy 100 oz. of gold @ US$600/oz. in December (NYMEX) sell 62,500 @ 1.9800 US$/ in March (CME) sell 1,000 bbl. of oil @ US$65/bbl. in April (NYMEX)Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.9</p> <p>Terminology</p> <p>The party that has agreed to buy has a long position The party that has agreed to sell has a short position</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.10</p> <p>5</p> <p>ExampleJanuary: an investor enters into a long futures contract on COMEX to buy 100 oz of gold @ $600 in April April: the price of gold $615 per oz What is the investors profit?Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.11</p> <p>Over-the Counter MarketsThe over-the counter market is an important alternative to exchanges It is a telephone and computer-linked network of dealers who do not physically meet Trades are usually between financial institutions, corporate treasurers, and fund managersFundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.12</p> <p>6</p> <p>Size of OTC and Exchange Markets(Figure 1.2, Page 4)</p> <p>Source: Bank for International Settlements. Chart shows total principal amounts for OTC market and value of underlying assets for exchange marketFundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.13</p> <p>Forward ContractsForward contracts are similar to futures except that they trade in the over-thecounter market Forward contracts are popular on currencies and interest rates</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.14</p> <p>7</p> <p>Foreign Exchange Quotes for GBP on July 14, 2006 (See page 5)Bid 1.8360 1.8372 1.8400 1.8438 Offer 1.8364 1.8377 1.8405 1.84441.15</p> <p>Spot 1-month forward 3-month forward 6-month forward</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>OptionsA call option is an option to buy a certain asset by a certain date for a certain price (the strike price) A put option is an option to sell a certain asset by a certain date for a certain price (the strike price)</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.16</p> <p>8</p> <p>American vs European OptionsAn American option can be exercised at any time during its life A European option can be exercised only at maturity</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.17</p> <p>Intel Option Prices (Sept 12, 2006; Stock Price=19.56); See page 6Calls Jan 2007 4.950 2.775 1.175 0.375 0.125 Puts Jan 2007 0.150 0.475 1.375 3.100 5.450</p> <p>Strike Price ($) $15.00 $17.50 $20.00 $22.50 $25.00</p> <p>Oct 2006 4.650 2.300 0.575 0.075 0.025</p> <p>Apr 2007 5.150 3.150 1.650 0.725 0.275</p> <p>Oct 2006 0.025 0.125 0.875 2.950 5.450</p> <p>Apr 2007 0.275 0.725 1.700 3.300 5.450</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.18</p> <p>9</p> <p>Exchanges Trading OptionsChicago Board Options Exchange American Stock Exchange Philadelphia Stock Exchange International Securities Exchange Eurex (Europe) and many more (see list at end of book)</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.19</p> <p>Options vs Futures/ForwardsA futures/forward contract gives the holder the obligation to buy or sell at a certain price An option gives the holder the right to buy or sell at a certain price</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.20</p> <p>10</p> <p>Three Reasons for Trading Derivatives: Hedging, Speculation, and ArbitrageHedge funds trade derivatives for all three reasons (See Business Snapshot 1.1) When a trader has a mandate to use derivatives for hedging or arbitrage, but then switches to speculation, large losses can result. (See Barings, Business Snapshot 1.2)Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.21</p> <p>Hedging Examples (Example 1.1 and 1.2,page 11)</p> <p>A US company will pay 10 million for imports from Britain in 3 months and decides to hedge using a long position in a forward contract An investor owns 1,000 Microsoft shares currently worth $28 per share. A two-month put with a strike price of $27.50 costs $1. The investor decides to hedge by buying 10 contracts</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.22</p> <p>11</p> <p>Value of Microsoft Shares with and without Hedging (Fig 1.4, page 12)40,000 Value of Holding ($)</p> <p>35,000 No Hedging 30,000 Hedging</p> <p>25,000 Stock Price ($) 20,000 20 25 30 35 40</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.23</p> <p>Speculation Example (pages 14)An investor with $2,000 to invest feels that Amazon.coms stock price will increase over the next 2 months. The current stock price is $20 and the price of a 2-month call option with a strike of $22.50 is $1 What are the alternative strategies?</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.24</p> <p>12</p> <p>Arbitrage Example (pages 15-16)A stock price is quoted as 100 in London and $182 in New York The current exchange rate is 1.8500 What is the arbitrage opportunity?</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.25</p> <p>1. Gold: An Arbitrage Opportunity?Suppose that: The spot price of gold is US$600 The quoted 1-year futures price of gold is US$650 The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per annum No income or storage costs for gold Is there an arbitrage opportunity?Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.26</p> <p>13</p> <p>2. Gold: Another Arbitrage Opportunity?Suppose that: The spot price of gold is US$600 The quoted 1-year futures price of gold is US$590 The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per annum No income or storage costs for gold Is there an arbitrage opportunity?Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.27</p> <p>The Futures Price of GoldIf the spot price of gold is S &amp; the futures price is for a contract deliverable in T years is F, then F = S (1+r )T where r is the 1-year (domestic currency) riskfree rate of interest. In our examples, S=600, T=1, and r=0.05 so that F = 600(1+0.05) = 630</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.28</p> <p>14</p> <p>1. Oil: An Arbitrage Opportunity?Suppose that: The spot price of oil is US$70 The quoted 1-year futures price of oil is US$80 The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per annum The storage costs of oil are 2% per annum Is there an arbitrage opportunity?Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.29</p> <p>2. Oil: Another Arbitrage Opportunity?Suppose that: The spot price of oil is US$70 The quoted 1-year futures price of oil is US$65 The 1-year US$ interest rate is 5% per annum The storage costs of oil are 2% per annum Is there an arbitrage opportunity?Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>1.30</p> <p>15</p> <p>Hedging Strategies Using FuturesChapter 3</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.31</p> <p>Long &amp; Short HedgesA long futures hedge is appropriate when you know you will purchase an asset in the future and want to lock in the price A short futures hedge is appropriate when you know you will sell an asset in the future &amp; want to lock in the price</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.32</p> <p>16</p> <p>Arguments in Favor of Hedging</p> <p>Companies should focus on the main business they are in and take steps to minimize risks arising from interest rates, exchange rates, and other market variables</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.33</p> <p>Arguments against HedgingShareholders are usually well diversified and can make their own hedging decisions It may increase risk to hedge when competitors do not Explaining a situation where there is a loss on the hedge and a gain on the underlying can be difficultFundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.34</p> <p>17</p> <p>Convergence of Futures to Spot(Hedge initiated at time t1 and closed out at time t2)</p> <p>Futures Price</p> <p>Spot PriceTime t1 t2 3.35</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>Basis RiskBasis is the difference between spot &amp; futures Basis risk arises because of the uncertainty about the basis when the hedge is closed out</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.36</p> <p>18</p> <p>Long HedgeSuppose that F1 : Initial Futures Price F2 : Final Futures Price S2 : Final Asset Price You hedge the future purchase of an asset by entering into a long futures contract Cost of Asset=S2 (F2 F1) = F1 + BasisFundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.37</p> <p>Short HedgeSuppose that F1 : Initial Futures Price F2 : Final Futures Price S2 : Final Asset Price You hedge the future sale of an asset by entering into a short futures contract Price Realized=S2+ (F1 F2) = F1 + BasisFundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.38</p> <p>19</p> <p>Choice of ContractChoose a delivery month that is as close as possible to, but later than, the end of the life of the hedge When there is no futures contract on the asset being hedged, choose the contract whose futures price is most highly correlated with the asset price. There are then 2 components to basisFundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.39</p> <p>Optimal Hedge RatioProportion of the exposure that should optimally be hedged is h= S F where S is the standard deviation of S, the change in the spot price during the hedging period, F is the standard deviation of F, the change in the futures price during the hedging period is the coefficient of correlation between S and F.Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.40</p> <p>20</p> <p>Hedging Using Index Futures(Page 62)</p> <p>To hedge the risk in a portfolio the number of contracts that should be shorted is P F</p> <p>where P is the value of the portfolio, is its beta, and F is the current value of one futures (=futures price times contract size)Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.41</p> <p>Reasons for Hedging an Equity PortfolioDesire to be out of the market for a short period of time. (Hedging may be cheaper than selling the portfolio and buying it back.) Desire to hedge systematic risk (Appropriate when you feel that you have picked stocks that will outpeform the market.)Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.42</p> <p>21</p> <p>ExampleFutures price of S&amp;P 500 is 1,000 Size of portfolio is $5 million Beta of portfolio is 1.5 One contract is on $250 times the index What position in futures contracts on the S&amp;P 500 is necessary to hedge the portfolio?Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.43</p> <p>Changing BetaWhat position is necessary to reduce the beta of the portfolio to 0.75? What position is necessary to increase the beta of the portfolio to 2.0?</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.44</p> <p>22</p> <p>Rolling The Hedge ForwardWe can use a series of futures contracts to increase the life of a hedge Each time we switch from 1 futures contract to another we incur a type of basis risk</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 6th Edition, Copyright John C. Hull 2007</p> <p>3.45</p> <p>Futures OptionsChapter 16</p> <p>Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 7th Ed, Ch 16, Global Edition. Copyright John C. Hull 2010</p> <p>46</p> <p>23</p> <p>BackgroundThe commodity Futures Trading Commission authorized the trading of options on futures on an experimental basis in 1982. Permanent trading wa approved in 1987. The popularity of the contract with investors has grown very fast.</p> <p>Expiration MonthsFutures options are referred to by the delivery month of the underlying futures contract---not by the expiration month of the option. Most futures options are American. The expiration date of a futures option contract is usually on, or a few days before, the earliest delivery date of the underlying futures contract.</p> <p>24</p> <p>Mechanics of Call Futures Options</p> <p>When a call futures...</p>