options for energy buyers bloomberg offices...2 rough storage use for winter 06 and beyond 1....
TRANSCRIPT
Options for Energy BuyersOptions for Energy BuyersBloomberg OfficesBloomberg Offices
8 November 20068 November 2006
Centrica Storage Limited
2
Rough Storage use for Winter 06 and beyond
1. Introductions to CSL
2. The role of storage in GB
3. Rough Recovery • Options for Energy Buyers (1) – Rough Update
4. Storage Outlook for Winter 06
5. Options for Energy Buyers (2) – Use storage information
6. Options for Energy Buyers (3) Valuing Rough Storage
7. Operating with Rough Storage in your portfolio
3
An introduction to Centrica Storage
• Centrica Storage Limited is a wholly owned subsidiary of Centrica plc
• Centrica Storage is a ring-fenced part of Centrica plc, separated from the supply side legally, physically and financially (Chinese walls). Undertakings agreed with Secretary of State December 2003 governing operation of Rough
4
47/8A Installed 19776 wells24/7 Operation
Easington TerminalRough gas processingAmethyst gas processingTie in to National Transmission System24/7 Operation
Hedon, near HullAdministration/engineering
Venture House, StainesHeadquarters and Commercialoffice24/7 Operation
AMETHYST
0 10 20 km
EASINGTONTERMINAL
29 km @ 36"29 km @ 16"
ROUGHYork
47/3B Installed 198324 wells24/7 Operation
Introduction to CSL - Facilities overview
5
Rough
York
EasingtonTerminal
To NationalTransmission
System
36” Pipeline
Riser ShaftAP
BDBP
CD
AD
16”Pipeline
36” SubmarinePipeline18 Miles
18”Inter-fieldPipeline
1.25 Miles
47/3B 47/8A
• Represents 74% of UK storage and supplies 10% of UK peak winter demand
• Largest offshore gas storage facility in Western Europe (strategically important).
• 185 billion cubic feet (bcf) cushion gas
• ~118 bcf storage capacity
• Deliverability max 44.8mcm/day
• Average Injection ~15mcm/day
• Onshore processing terminal at Easington for Rough, Amethyst, Rose and Helvellyn processing (third party gas).
Introduction to Centrica Storage – Process Overview
6
Actual GB Load Duration Curve 05/06
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1 26 51 76 101 126 151 176 201 226 251 276 301 326 351
mcm
Beach Supply Isle of Grain IUK Rough MRS SRS Rough injection Supply 04/05
Storage Year 05/06
Rough InjectionsRough Injections
Rough storage is used to provide seasonal swing to the market
Continued indigenous production declines
Storage prices from market spread
7
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 16 31 46 61 76
Time to empty - Days
GW
h
GlenmavisPartingtonAvonmouthDynevor ArmsHole House FarmHornseaHatfield MoorHumbly GroveRough
Existing UK Storage Facilities Winter 05/06
Rough
Winter 06/7
Humbly Grove available for the Winter
More deliverability from Hole House
8
Rough’s place in the storage and gas market
Storage Capacity
Rough74%
Hafield Moor3%
Hornsea8%
Humbly Grove7%
Hole House1%
National Grid LNG7%
Deliverability
Rough35%
Hafield Moor2%
Hornsea15%
Humbly Grove6%
Hole House2%
National Grid LNG40%
Average Injection - Summer 06
Rough66%Hafield Moor
4%
Hornsea8%
Humbly Grove6%
Hole House13%
National Grid LNG3%
9
Recovery Program - StatisticsPhased Recovery completed to plan
• Phase 1 – remanning: full extent of damage unknown, installations ‘black’• Phase 2 – reinstatement of injection operations• Phase 3 – reinstatement of production operations• Potential for reoccurrence eliminated
Over 400,000 man-hours worked
Safety • Zero lost time accidents• No Safety or Environmental incidents
Quality• >500 Flange Joints made• No hydrocarbon leaks, minimal rework - start up first time to plan
Time• Phase 2 - 112 Days from incident to recommence injection• Phase 3 - 217 Days from incident to become production ready
Cost• Circa £30 million project
Execution• Planned, resourced, managed and implemented by CSL
10
CSL – Rough Flows
Net Storage Movement
-300,000,000
-200,000,000
-100,000,000
0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
01/0
1/05
01/0
2/05
01/0
3/05
01/0
4/05
01/0
5/05
01/0
6/05
01/0
7/05
01/0
8/05
01/0
9/05
01/1
0/05
01/1
1/05
01/1
2/05
01/0
1/06
01/0
2/06
01/0
3/06
01/0
4/06
01/0
5/06
01/0
6/06
01/0
7/06
01/0
8/06
01/0
9/06
01/1
0/06
01/1
1/06
•Near 100% reliability for 2005
•High summer load factor on injection 2005
•Highest withdrawal rate 492 GWh
•Sand monitoring & 8 Alpha
•Highest volume injected in a season
•Release of peak production rates Nov-Jan
•Cycling from November to late January
££50> million spent on Rough by CSL to date!50> million spent on Rough by CSL to date!
•Near 100% load factor on injection
•High level of availability
•Inj Rates higher than forecast
•Original space targets met
•Production tested – 5th October
•Production starts – 2nd November
Facility closed for repairs
11
BD B
PCD
• Heli-deck• Accommodation• 12 wells
• All gas processing facilities• Gas compression (injection)• Main power generation • 12 wells
Centrica Storage Limited – New Production Process
12
Process ChangesBypassing dehydration and running sealine wet
• Modifications based upon running the Rough 36” sea line ‘wet’• Bypass the Rough 3B Glycol Dehydration Trains• Installation of large header and return pipework• Glycol Contactors, Production Separators and Glycol Regeneration
Packages become redundant• ESD System extensively modified to reflect changes• Install new Hydrate / Corrosion Inhibitor Chemical Injection Skid on both
Rough 8A and Rough 3B
• Two Injection aftercoolers modified to eliminate failure mode and return to four injection cooler operation
• Outcome:• Offshore production process simplified• Injection aftercooler duty improved• Pipeline corrosion management regime enhanced
13
1st NOVEMBER – ROUGH STORAGE FULL 116.5 bcf! (78 day service)
• FM on Injection lifted from Gas Day 18th July 2006
• Rough returned to injection early June – 112 days after the FM
• Since the return to physical injection operations in June CSL has filled in excess of 58 bcf of space before the end of winter
• Full production rates available following the return from annualmaintenance in September
• All production trains were tested in turn 5th October 2006
• Commercial withdrawals began 2nd November 2006!
14
Options for Energy Buyers (2) - Storage Information
•http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/misc/
•http://storit.centrica-sl.co.uk (aggregate site nominations within day)
•CSL supportive of attempts to drive forward transparency in the UK and Europe where appropriate
15
Purchases
SalesInitial Hedge Shape to give 2.27 x (Q1-Summer) p/SBU
Optimal hedge Shape to give 2.4 x (Q1-Summer) p/SBU
D J F M
A M J J A S
The Q1-Summer spread fits the shape of the SBU
and provides a good hedge in forward markets.
Summer Contract
Q1
Cont
ract
Once market monthly contracts trade one
can optimise position to fit optimal profile
Options for Energy Buyers (3) – Book storageRough – SBU pricing and intrinsic value
Standard Bundled Unit (SBU)
Withdrawal 1 kWh/day
Space 67 kWh
Injection 0.35 kWh/day
455m SBU’s sold
1 SBU provides space equivalent to 2.27 therms
16Note: Each SBU contains 2.27 therms, therefore to convert from pence/SBU into pence/Therm divide
by 2.27
Unlocking the extrinsic valueE
xtrin
sic
Intri
nsic
2.27
2.4
2.8 to 3.2
Sales activity range
Poor Rough Reliability
Injection Cancellation
Long Injection Period
Force Majeure
Good Rough Reliability from high availability of the asset to CSL and customers
Customers able to reshape the CSL product or sell/buy unused capacity as firm or interruptible
Customers able to buy/sell gas in store
Ability to re-nominate withdrawal/injection with short lead times
Customers nominated quantities equal their allocated quantities – irrespective of asset availability
Market volatility provides cycling ability to leverage greater value from a Rough SBU
Extrinsic value from use of Rough on 100+ days beyond intrinsic valuation
Potential upside to 2.4 intrinsic as Dec – Mar spread increases on Fundamental change to winter contract
Re-optimise hedge in more liquid market –further intrinsic value
Initial Intrinsic Hedge in product-limited market fits shape of Rough
17
Site Map
Nominations Capacity Management
Inventory and Allocation Billing
OverviewEnter NominationView Nomination
View ProfileActivity report
Enter TransferView Transfer
Accept TransferCapacity Transfer
Capacity Availability
Enter TransferView Transfer
Accept TransferView Inventory
View Charges
Centrica Storage Bulletins
Public BulletinsPrivate Bulletins
Bulletin Board
View BulletinEnter BulletinEdit Bulletin
Administration(AR functions)
Change Password
New AccountEdit Account
18
Nomination
STORIT
Allocation
Within the Gas DayBefore the gas day After the gas day
19
Summary
• Storage has a key role to play in efficient gas market and balancing
• Market responding to need for more storage - duration still an issue but far better placed for demand/supply shocks in future• Subject to planning consents!
• Increased interconnection may increase the potential for storage cycling
• CSL has spent £50m> investing in Rough and plans to spend more
• Rough was full before the onset of Winter• Rough back producing/storing our customers gas
20
Centrica Storage LimitedWHY SHOULDN’T LARGE GAS USERS BUY STORAGE CAPACITY..?
QUESTIONS…?
www.centrica-sl.co.uk
Sales and Marketing Information/Queries:James Lawson +44 (0) 1784 415 304
Analysis Queries:Andrew Prangley +44 (0) 1784 415 324Jitendra Patel +44 (0) 1784 415 339Stuart Waudby +44 (0) 1784 415 305
Email: [email protected]