Options to Manage Electricity Demand

and Increase Capacity in

Santa Delano County

Jon CookJeff Kessler

Gabriel LadeGeoff MorrisonLi

n’s

Lack

eys

Project Overview

Assess options available to Santa Delano Electric Company (SDEC) to handle load growth and increased EV penetration

Options Assessed New transmission & distribution infrastructure Demand response & time-varying pricing Controlled EV charging Battery storage

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Benefits of EV Adoption

California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard $42 million to $420 million in revenue

$20 to $200 per LCFS credit

External Benefits $109 to $263 from reductions in criteria pollutants

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Summary of Recommendations

1. Expand grid to accommodate population growth

2. $20 per month surcharge for L2 chargers

3. Install smart meters

4. Increase grid reliability w/ battery storage (450MWh)

5. Use dynamic pricing

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Implementation Impacts1. Rate change of $0.00/kWh to $0.002/kWh

2. Grid expansion costs: $66 million (if all EV load shifted)

3. EV Load shift program: $682 million in costs entirely offset by $20 per month surcharge

4. Install smart meters: $219 million in savings

5. Improved grid reliability: $124 million in savings

6. Dynamic pricing: $65 million in savings

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Costs of Load Growth Problem: Load growth from increasing population and increased EV penetration. Solutions: Install controlled level 2 chargers for EVs;

Dynamic pricing (CPP, TOU, or RTP).

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Peak Load Growth Scenarios

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20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

20192020

20212022

20232024

20252026

20272028

20292030

7000

7200

7400

7600

7800

8000

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

Population Only Max EV and Population (Level 1) 5% Load Growth

CEC Load Growth Max EV and Population (Level 2)

Pe

ak

Ca

pa

cit

y (

MW

)

EV Load Shift (Level 2)

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-1000000

1000000

3000000

5000000

7000000

9000000Shifted EV Load Average Load

Time of Day

Pow

er L

oad

(kW

)

-1000000

1000000

3000000

5000000

7000000

9000000BAU EV Load Average Load

Time of Day

Pow

er L

oad

(kW

)

Cost of Shifting Load Free level 2 chargers that let utility control charge times

Costs recovered by $20/month surcharge on level 2 charger owners

Monthly surcharge mitigates equity concerns

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Costs of Load Growth by 2030

Cost projections of grid expansion:

Due to population growth: $66 million (Range: $32-202 million)

Due to population + EV growth: All Level 2: $692 million Controlled Level 2: $66 million

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Demand Response

Average load impact of 0.005 to 0.006 kW/household

Dynamic Pricing pilot suggests $7M in annual savings for SDEC $65M

Conduct additional pilots Compare impacts of RTP with TOU and CPP

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Battery Storage and Smart Meters

Smart meters save money Non-smart meters cost $430 million Smart meters cost $211 million

450 MWh of battery storage offers increased reliability Saves rate payers up to $392 million

Costs rate payers $268 million

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Summary of Recommendations

1. Expand grid to accommodate population growth

2. $20 per month surcharge for L2 chargers

3. Install smart meters

4. Increase grid reliability w/ battery storage

5. Use dynamic pricing

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Questions?

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Summary of Costs

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Determining EV Adoption

Vehicle Purchase Model Projected vehicle use 9% turnover rate per year

EV Diffusion Model Modeled after HEV uptake in SF

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Electric Vehicle Adoption

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Diffusion Curves

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EV Load Profile

Charging follows a normal distribution

87% of charging between 5 and 8 pm Average charge for 23 miles of daily travel

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Seasonal Loads in SDEC Territory

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Temperature vs. Wholesale Price

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Cost of Load Growth Detail Assume expansion of load up to 5% requires expansion of substations and transformers.

Assume expansion beyond 5% requires new substations and transformers as well as upgrades to lines and feeders.

Use data provided by Ms. Alesia Gonzales and yearly projections of demand growth to calculate discounted sum of expansion costs, assuming upgrades undertaken as needed.

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Cost of Load Growth Detail (cont.)

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  $/MW System Peak Mean St. Dev

Average Capital Costs

Substation/Transformers $43,064 $18,903

Lines/Feeders $237,644 $100,906

Marginal Capital Costs

Substation/Transformers $91,062 $94,919

Lines/Feeders $447,964 $589,524

Average O&M Costs

Substation/Transformers $424 $306

Lines/Feeders $7,671 $4,470

Load Demand % Growth

Substation/Transformers & Lines/ Feeder %

Upgrades

Mean Costs Expanding

Yearly O&M Costs

1% 5% $238,933 $3,588

2% 8% $382,293 $5,741

3% 10% $477,867 $7,177

4% 14% $669,013 $10,047

5% 18% $860,160 $12,918

Modeling Long-Term Contracts

Most of SDEC’s electricity comes from long-term contracts Use existing year of load and wholesale price data to simulate future load service costs

Contracts are good for a range of potential loads (avg. load for a given hour ± 1 std. dev.)

Price per kWh for contract is determined by avg. wholesale cost for that hour

If forecasted load is greater than max contract load, then extra power must be bought from wholesale market at spot price (vice versa for selling extra power)

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Modeling Long-Term Contracts

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Load (kW)

Contract coverage

For all hours h ending 01:00 – 00:00

Avg. Load in hour h

Y(+ 1 s.d.)

X(- 1 s.d.)

0

Contract provides Y, B-Y must be bought on wholesale market

B

A

Contract provides entire load (A)

Contract provides X, X-C is sold on wholesale market

C