orange traditionalists or orange skeptics?: the complex social base of pro-agreement unionism
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Orange Traditionalists or Orange Skeptics?: the complex social base of Pro-Agreement Unionism. Main Research Questions. What is the social profile of the UUC and how does this differ from that of the Orange Order and the Unionist community as a whole - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Orange Traditionalists or Orange Skeptics?: the complex social base of Pro-Agreement
Unionism
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Main Research Questions
• What is the social profile of the UUC and how does this differ from that of the Orange Order and the Unionist community as a whole
• Which factors best predict support for the Good Friday Agreement within the UUC?
• What are the characteristics of pro-UUP constituencies, 1993-2001[time permitting]
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UUC Social Profile: Previous Survey Research
• Late 2000 Survey of UUC (Tonge & Evans 2001; 2002). 1/3 response rate
• Social Profile in terms of age, education, gender, income, occupation, county of residence
• Showed that roughly half the UUC were Orange members
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Research Strategy
• We add contextual factors to the analysis
• Party List (gender, title, postcode, section)
• Strategists assign vote (pro/anti-GFA)
• MOSAIC classifications assigned to party members
• NI MOSAIC score 1-27 (status), 30-36 (rural)
• MOSAIC group and score used in multi-level and fixed-effects logistic regressions
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% Top 12
Rural 8
Bottom 7
Nonrural Top 12
Nonrural Bottom 7
N
Freemason officebearers
67.8% 15.5% 8.0% 80.2% 9.4% 766
Orange bloc UUC delegates
45.7% 36.2% 12.4% 71.6% 19.4% 105
UUC delegates total 44.3% 35.9% 8.4% 69.0% 13.1% 879
Grand Orange Lodge officebearers
34.7% 44.4% 9.7% 62.5% 17.5% 144
Northern Ireland population average
32.5% 18.1% 22.9% 39.6% 27.9% 1.6m
Orange Order (lodge) officebearers
32.4% 43.9% 12.4% 57.7% 22.1% 1429
The Social Profile of the UUC and Orange Order by MOSAIC Classification (99% sample)
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Occupation: Orange Order versus Orange UUC Delegates
White Collar* Farmer Manual Retired N
Orange male
Membership
22% 20% 40% 5-10%** 41% of
members***
Orange UUC
male delegates
44% 14% 6.3% 25.8% 128
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Age: Orange Order Leadership vs. the Orange UUC
• 48% of Orange officebearers are under 40 while just a quarter of Orange UUC members are under 45
• 29% of Orange officebearers over 50, while 66% of UUC Orange members were over 55
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Findings: Social Profile
• Major status difference between Orange leadership/membership and Orange UUC delegates
• UUC profile is elderly and elite
• Explains why Protestant alienation from the UUP may be greater than from the Orange
• Explains why many Orange leaders and a majority of the membership wish to break the link with the UUC while Orange UUC delegates do not
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GFA Voting Dynamics: Previous Survey Research
• Orange Order membership and age were clearly important (p < .001)
• Much unexplained: R2 = .1 predicting 1998 vote and .03 in predicting 'Vote Today'
• Concluded that division lay between 'Orange skeptics' and 'rational civics'
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Support for the Agreement by UUP Constituency Association, c. 2002
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UUC Constituency Profile: Rural
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UUC Constituency Profile: Status
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Orange/Non-Orange Differential in Support for the Agreement
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Differences in Stance within the Orange UUC
Characteristic Pro-Agreement
N Sample
Non-Orange Delegates 66.30% 704 91%Orange officebearers outside Orange bloc 52.60% 22 86%Non-officebearers in Orange bloc 32.90% 73 94%Orange officebearers in Orange bloc 12.80% 40 98%
Orange/Non-Orange Voting Differential (Tonge & Evans) 20.00% 130 33%Orange/Non-Orange Voting Differential (Kaufmann & Patterson) 40.00% 106 99%
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Predictors of Support for the GFA within the UUC, 2003
02468
101214161820
Party Section
Orange Officebearer
Orange from Methodist Pro...
Orange Bloc
North Antrim (+)
Newry & Armagh (+)
Lagan Valley (-)
Respectable Working (+)
MLA (+)
East Belfast (+)
Orange member from stron...Predictor
Wa
ld S
tati
sti
c
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Findings: Individual
• Orange and MLA status are the most important individual characteristics
• Rural, Gender, Title, Education and Status unimportant
• Age may be important
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Findings: Contextual
• Contextual factors explain most of the variance (party section, geography of residence)
• Sectional splits and Geographic splits within the Orange Order are critical
• Big difference between UUC delegates who happen to be Orange and those who represent the Orange
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Conclusion
• Implications of breaking UUC-Orange link
• 'Orange skeptics' vs. 'rational civics' idea needs to be contextualised to official Orangeism - esp. in Belfast & Antrim
• Importance of 'traditional' vs 'modern' divide (i.e. West Bann Orangemen, respectable working-class constituencies)
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UUP share of Protestant vote at District Council level
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Church of Ireland % of Protestants, 1991 (by DC)
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Orange Order Lodges & Density (southern counties) 1991
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Predictors of UUP share of Protestant Vote, DC level, 1993-2001
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
R. Catholic % (+)
Region (NE vs rest) (-)
No Religion (+)
Higher Education (+)
Non-comm
unal parties' vote (-)
No car in household (+)
Orange M
embership Level 91 (+)
YEAR (-)
(Constant) (+)
Ch. Ireland Protestants (+)
Other Unionist Parties' vote (-)
Protestant Unemployed %
(-)
Retired % (-)
Z score (note +/- sign)
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Determinants of UUP Constituencies, 1993-2001 (by z score)
Predictors of UUP/DUP voting ratio, 1993-2001 DC elections
0123456
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Non-Orange Skeptics: Protestant Working-Class Area, Co. Armagh
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Orange Skeptics & Liberal Civics (East Belfast)
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Traditionalists (Orange & Other), Co. Tyrone
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END
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Model Summary
.531a .282 .264 1.1741Model1
R R SquareAdjustedR Square
Std. Error ofthe Estimate
Predictors: (Constant), NOTSTPC, YEAR, ProtUI*UImeasure, COIPRT, ORNGD91, RCPCT
a.
Coefficientsa
196.205 45.069 4.353 .000
1.062 .426 .168 2.493 .013
-5.473 1.618 -.202 -3.383 .001
3.979 1.656 .155 2.403 .017
-9.85E-02 .023 -.237 -4.364 .000
4.020 .726 .351 5.540 .000
15.764 5.354 .198 2.945 .004
(Constant)
RCPCT
ProtUI*UI measure
ORNGD91
YEAR
COIPRT
NOTSTPC
Model1
B Std. Error
UnstandardizedCoefficients
Beta
Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
Dependent Variable: UUPEDGEa.
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Table 1. Orange UUC Delegates and Orange Members: A Social Comparison
White Collar* Farmer Manual Retired N
Orange male
Membership
22% 20% 40% 5-10%** 41% of
members***
Orange UUC
male delegates
44% 14% 6.3% 25.8% 128
*Mostly professional, civil service and management. Includes the 6 percent of Orange survey
respondents who ticked the ‘admin’ box and the 3 percent of Tonge & Evans’ UUC sample
who stated ‘clerical’ as their occupation.
**15% of respondents marked ‘other’, and the report claims that a ‘sizeable’ number of these
were retired. (LOI Commission 1997)
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Table 4. Orange and UUC Residence, by 1971 County/County Borough (100% sample)†
UUC Sample* Orange UUC
bloc delegates*
Orange mass
membership**
N.I. Protestant
Population
(1971)***
Antrim 26.9% 22.0% 22.5% 26.0%
Armagh 11.5% 11.9% 13.7% 7.0%
Belfast 13.3% 10.2% 9.4% 13-15% (2001)
Derry City 1.6% 0.0% 2.2% 1.2%
Down 23.3% 19.5% 19.5% 23.4%
Fermanagh 5.1% 6.8% 6.6% 2.3% (2001)
Londonderry
County 8.5% 8.5% 10.8%
7.2% (10% in
2001 including
Derry City)
Tyrone 9.8% 11.0% 15.3% 6% (2001)
† Counties are exclusive of county boroughs.
* 100% sample. UUC N = 888. Orange UUC bloc N = 118 (includes Orange women).
** From GOLI returns 2001. Thousands of members - owing to our privacy agreement with
GOLI, we cannot state the actual figure.
***Irish Historical Census 1971. We use the 1971 figures since they are the most recent
available using the old eight-county census boundaries. 2001 figures are based on
approximations from adding together relevant local government districts (only possible where
borders are reasonably close).
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Table 5. Stance Toward Good Friday Agreement, by Party Section, 2002
UUC Party Section Pro-Agreement N Sample
MLAs* 93.3% 15 100%
Councillors* 90.0% 10 100%
Newry & Armagh 87.5% 40 100%
Strangford 84.8% 46 98%
N. Belfast 80.0% 35 95%
UUC Average 57.9% 856 96%
East Londonderry 50.0% 42 98%
S. Belfast 48.6% 35 100%
Young Unionist 38.1% 21 68%
Lagan Valley 35.8% 53 100%
Orange Order 25.9% 112 95%
*These delegates comprise only a fraction of the total number of UUC delegates who are
MLAs and District Councillors.
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Table 7. Orange Delegates' Stance Toward the GFA: the Role of Party Section and Orange
Activism
Ungrouped Logit Model Conditional Logit (Section)
B S.E. B S.E.
Orange membership -.2756488*** (.0689242) -.6494674 (.6829727)
Elected 1.7179* (.3753633) .2388782 (.2447076)
(MOSAIC) status score 1.005093 (.0057066) .0028359 (.0061245)
(MOSAIC) rural .9825566 (.2034435) .1208905 (.2423211)
Gender 1.37029 (.2513376) .2698756 (.1980430)
Orange active -.7729502 (.2815944) -1.15594* (.5012214)
Pseudo R2= .0606 for ungrouped model and .0129 for grouped model.
* p < .05; ** p < .01; ***p < .001
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Table 8. Multi-Level Binomial Logistic Regression of Good Friday Agreement Delegate Stance† B S.E. Wald Statistic
(Multi-Level) Wald Statistic (Fixed Effects) ††††
Orange Officebearer -2.409 .590 16.642*** 12.515*** Orange member from Methodist High-Protestant Constituency (interaction)
-1.043 .280 13.870*** 9.953**
Respectable Working Class Constituency
.868 .314 7.604** 6.559*
Member of Northern Ireland Assembly (MLA)
2.437 1.034 5.554* 5.092*
Orange member from strongly Orange Constituency (interaction)
4.687 2.063 5.161* ----
County of Residence†† .401 .400 1.006 15.544* Party Section 91.598*** 94.763*** Orange Bloc -2.303 .622 13.714*** ---- North Antrim 3.098 .928 11.110*** ---- Newry & Armagh 1.766 .621 8.083** ---- Lagan Valley -1.559 .563 7.651** ---- East Belfast 1.338 .569 5.531* ---- South Belfast 1.798 .937 3.673 ---- Young Unionists -.967 .631 2.351 ---- Foyle 1.004 .682 2.166 ---- South Antrim -.867 .617 1.974 ---- North Belfast .679 .498 1.860 ---- Upper Bann .552 .512 1.161 ---- Party Officers .950 1.176 .652 ---- Women Unionists .591 .839 .495 ---- East Londonderry -.347 .502 .478 ---- Fermanagh & S. Tyrone .300 .525 .327 ---- Strangford .381 .677 .316 ---- East Antrim .244 .613 .158 ---- North Down .154 .677 .052 ---- Mid-Ulster -.070 .534 .017 ---- South Down .057 .635 .008 ---- Level 1 Constant: ---- ---- ---- .539 - 2 log likelihood 872.464 920.469 Pseudo R2 (Nagelkerke) ††† ---- .295 * p < .05; ** p < .01; ***p < .001. † N = 887. Pro-Agreement stance is coded 1, Anti-Agreement as 0. Party section has 21 degrees of freedom, West Tyrone is the reference category, and did not turn up significant in regressions using other reference categories. †† Pre-1973 counties/county boroughs. Belfast is the reference category for the fixed-effects model. For the multilevel model, this describes variation of a level 2 constant which was found to be zero, hence county of residence has no significant effect in the multilevel model. ††† No pseudo R2 is provided by MLwiN. †††† Coefficients for individual party sections in the fixed effects model are not provided as they bear no logical relationship to the data due to multicollinearity. (See discussion below)
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Table 9. Logistic Regression of Good Friday Agreement Stance among Orange Order-
member Delegates
B S.E.
Proportion Respectable Working-Class in Constituency (factor) 1.729* .741
Proportion of Protestant population that is Methodist in
Constituency
-26.955* 12.836
Proportion Catholic in Constituency 4.684* 1.915
Orange Officebearer -1.093* .495
Orange Membership per Protestant population in Constituency 8.730* 4.028
Constant -3.370*** .962
N = 133. Nagelkerke R2 = .375
*p < .05; ** p < .01; ***p < .001.
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Table 11. Logistic Regression of Good Friday Agreement Stance among Elected Delegates
B S.E.
Proportion Respectable Working-Class in Constituency (factor) .580* .233
Section Vote 2.717* 1.194
MLA 1.845† 1.073
Constant -1.032 .801
N = 137. Nagelkerke R2 = .229; Cox & Snell R2 = .156.
*p < .05; †p < .1
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Appendix 1: Derivation of 'Methodist High-Protestant' Factor
Rotated Component Matrix
Component
'Established Church' 'Methodist High-Protestant'
CATHOLIC .375 -.849
PRESBYTERIAN -.945 -3.831E-02
METHODIST .529 .708
CHURCH OF IRELAND .908 -.156
OTHER PROTESTANT -2.237E-03 .576
% of Variance Explained 42.85% 31.5%
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser
Normalization.
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Appendix 2: Derivation of 'Respectable Working Class' Factor
Rotated Component Matrix
Component
'High Status' 'Respectable
Working
Class'
AB. Higher and intermediate managerial / administrative /
professional
.974 6.004E-02
C1. Supervisory, clerical, junior managerial / administrative /
professional
.853 .380
C2. Skilled manual workers -.722 .374
D. Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers -.777 -.465
E. On state benefit, unemployed, lowest grade workers -.472 -.790
EDUCATION LEVEL 0: No qualifications -.871 -.459
EDUCATION LEVEL_1: Primary School -.321 .736
EDUCATION LEVEL_2: High School GCSE 5.558E-02 .946
EDUCATION LEVEL_3: High School A-level .878 -.173
EDUCATION LEVEL_4: First university degree .976 .125
EDUCATION LEVEL_5: Higher university degree .972 -.184
% of Variance Explained 61.3% 25.4%
Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser
Normalization.