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Oregon Population Forecast Program Regional Forecast Meeting - September 23, 2014

Presentation by

Population Forecast Program Team CURRY COUNTY

Oregon Population Forecast Program Project Team

Xiaomin Ruan, Population Forecast Program Coordinator

Risa S. Proehl, Population Estimates Program Manager

Jason R. Jurjevich, Assistant Director Population Research Center

Kevin Rancik, GIS Analyst

Janai Kessi, Research Analyst

Marisol Caceres Lorenzo, Research Assistant

Carson Gorecki, Research Assistant

Agenda

• Population Research Center (PRC)

• Forecast Program overview – Forecast regions

– Schedule

– Deliverables

– Forecasting methods and data sources

– Process for local input

• Demographic and economic trends

Population Research Center (PRC)

PRC Research areas:

– Oregon Population Forecast Program

– Oregon Population Estimates Program

– Oregon State Data Center (SDC)

– Demographic Research and Advisory Services

– Applied Demography Instruction

Click here for more information on OPFP

PRC Website: http://www.pdx.edu/prc

Forecast Program Overview

http://www.pdx.edu/prc

Forecast Program: 4-Year Schedule

Year 1

Program Development

Year 2

Update County-Level

Forecasts

1st Set of Coordinated City-County

Forecasts

Year 3

Update County-Level

Forecasts

2nd Set of Coordinated City-County

Forecasts

Year 4

Update County-Level

Forecasts

3rd Set of Coordinated City-County

Forecasts


Coordinated Forecast: Annual Schedule

August

•Update input data

September

•Build models •Hold 1st public meeting

October

•Distribute data collection surveys •Update county-level forecasts

November - January

•Compile local information •Prepare Preliminary Forecasts

February

•Release Preliminary Forecasts •Hold 2nd public meeting

March

•Issue Proposed Population Forecast •Begin Review period

June

•Issue Final Population Forecast


Deliverables

• County-level forecasts – 50 year horizon – 5-year age cohorts by sex

• Coordinated city-level forecasts – UGB forecasts – Total population

• Report containing: – Information for all incorporated cities and counties – Summaries of historic and future demographic trends,

assumptions about future growth, and a compilation of information collected from city and county officials and the public

– Short technical description of methods employed to produce the forecast


• Develop demographic models using historic and recent data

• Analyze past and current population trends ― Reasons for change, continuous or short-term?

• Gather information about existing and planned future housing, and about population change ― Housing developments ― Construction of new GQ facilities ― New employers

• Make assumptions about future housing and population change

• Revise forecasts on a regular basis

Process for Population Forecasts


Population Forecast Methods Primary Models for this Forecast

• Cohort-Component Method ― Relies on Age-Sex Schedules of demographic behavior ― Population pyramid displays age structure ― Mortality – Fairly constant over time ― Fertility – Decreased teen fertility, older mothers and Latino births ― Migration Rates – Subject to greater fluctuation than mortality and

fertility and more unpredictable ― Generally used for areas with larger populations


• Housing Unit Method ― For smaller cities and unincorporated areas, outside of UGBs

― Housing unit growth – Trend actual, trend county shares ― Housing unit type (single-/multi-family) ― Household composition ― Persons Per Household (PPH) ― Occupancy Rates ― Add Group Quarters Population

― Controlled to Cohort-Component Model results for county




• Housing Unit Method, con’t. ― Fluctuations in housing unit growth follow economic trends with

exceptions ― Persons Per Household (PPH)

• Factors that influence PPH: Race/Ethnicity, Age (fertility), Economy

• Generally decreasing in U.S.

― Occupancy Rates - Seasonal Housing


• For comparison and to serve as a check • Shift-Share and other Ratio Methods • Trend Extrapolation • Simple Economic/Employment Model • Additional Housing Unit Models (in addition to

CC models)


Population Forecast Methods Other Models/Methods to Consider

Primary Sources:

• U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses

• Population Research Center (PRC), Oregon Population Estimates Program

• Oregon Health Authority, Center for Health Statistics

• Incorporated counties, Assessors Office

• Incorporated cities, Community Development/Planning Department

• Oregon Geospatial Enterprise Office (GEO), Spatial Data Library

Secondary Sources:

• State of Oregon, Office of Economic Analysis

• U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS)

• U.S., Internal Revenue Service

• State of Oregon, Department of Revenue

• Oregon Department of Education

• U.S., Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services

• State of Oregon, Employment Department


Population Forecast Data Sources

Process for Local Input

• Hold regional meetings – Receive feed back on:

• Historical and current demographic and economic trends • Local land use and growth management planning

• Local survey – Collect local observations

• Population composition; recent change • Planned housing development plus group quarters facilities • Future employers • Infrastructure

– Existing capacity – Planned expansion

• Anything that might promote or hinder population growth

– Survey will be posted on website and emailed to each jurisdiction

– Issued in October, 2014


Demographic and Economic Trends

Curry County

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1930 to 2010 Decennial Censuses. Calculated by Population Research Center (PRC).

Note: Average annual grow th rate is used for simplicity. In actuality the rate is an annualized rate calculated w ith this formula = [(Year1/Year2)̂ (1/10) ]-1


-2%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total Pop 3,257 4,301 6,048 13,983 13,006 16,992 19,327 21,137 22,364

AAGR 0.74% 2.82% 3.47% 8.74% -0.72% 2.71% 1.30% 0.90% 0.57%

Ave

rag

e a

nn

ua

l p

op

ula

tio

n g

row

th

To

tal

po

pu

lati

on

Curry County – Historical Census Population

Source: Population Research Center Annual Estimates 2000-2013. Calculated by Population Research Center (PRC).


-1.5%

-0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

18,000

18,500

19,000

19,500

20,000

20,500

21,000

21,500

22,000

22,500

23,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total Pop 21,168 21,741 21,557 21,523 21,689 21,845 22,135 22,361 22,512 22,458 22,355 22,335 22,295 22,300

AGR 0.2% 2.7% -0.8% -0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% -0.2% -0.5% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0%

An

nu

al

gro

wth

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te

To

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pu

lati

on

Curry County – Recent Annual Population Trend – July 1st Estimate


Source: Population Research Center, July 1st Annual Estimates 1998-2013. Oregon Health Authority, Center for Health Statistics. Calculated by Population Research

Center (PRC).

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Nat Inc -154 -191 -177 -153 -181 -197 -139 -108 -150 -196 -210 -198 -179 -162 -152 -178

Net Mig 154 281 225 726 -3 163 305 264 441 422 361 144 76 142 112 183

AGR 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.7% -0.8% -0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% -0.2% -0.5% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0%

An

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gro

wth

ga

te

Ch

an

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in

po

pu

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(N

et

mig

rati

on

an

d n

atu

ral

incre

ase

)

Curry County - Natural Increase and Net Migration

Curry County and Incorporated City Population

2000 2010 2013 2000 2010 2013 2000-2010 2010-2013

Curry County 21,137 22,364 22,300 100% 100% 100% 0.6% -0.1%

Brookings 5,447 6,336 6,450 26% 28% 29% 1.5% 0.6%

Gold Beach 1,897 2,253 2,275 9% 10% 10% 1.7% 0.3%

Port Orford 1,153 1,133 1,135 5% 5% 5% -0.2% 0.1%

Unincorporated 12,640 12,642 12,440 60% 57% 56% 0.0% -0.5%

Total Population Share of County Population

Average Annual

Growth Rate

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census. Population Research Center, July 1, 2013 Annual Intercensal Estimate. Calculated by Population Research Center

(PRC).


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sh

are

of

To

tal

Co

un

ty P

op

ula

tio

n

Curry County - City Share of Population

Unincorporated

Port Orford

Gold Beach

Brookings


Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census. Population Research Center, July 1st Annual Estimates 2001-2009 and 2011-2013.

Calculated by Population Research Center (PRC).


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sh

are

of

To

tal

Co

un

ty P

op

ula

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n

Curry County - City Share of Population

Unincorporated

Port Orford

Gold Beach

Brookings

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census. Population Research Center, July 1st Annual Estimates 2001-2009 and 2011-2013.


Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census.

Curry County – Distribution by Age of Total Population


5% 3% 1% 1% 3% 5%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Percent of total population

Fiv

e y

ea

r a

ge

gro

up

s

2000 Male Female

5% 3% 1% 1% 3% 5%

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Percent of total population

Fiv

e y

ea

r a

ge

gro

up

s

2010 Male Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census. Calculated by Population Research Center (PRC).

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0 t

o 4

5 t

o 9

10

to

14

15

to

19

20

to

24

25

to

29

30

to

34

35

to

39

40

to

44

45

to

49

50

to

54

55

to

59

60

to

64

65

to

69

70

to

74

75

to

79

80

to

84

85

+

Mig

rati

on

ra

te

(In

co

me

rs p

er

pe

rso

n)

Five year age group

Oregon – 5yr Migration Rates for Total Population, 2000-2010


-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.200 t

o 4

5 t

o 9

10

to

14

15

to

19

20

to

24

25

to

29

30

to

34

35

to

39

40

to

44

45

to

49

50

to

54

55

to

59

60

to

64

65

to

69

70

to

74

75

to

79

80

to

84

85

+

Mig

rati

on

ra

te

(In

co

me

rs p

er

pe

rso

n)

Five year age group

Curry County – 5yr Migration Rates for Total Population, 2000-2010

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Fe

rtil

ity r

ate

(B

irth

s p

er

wo

ma

n b

y f

ive

ye

ar

ag

e g

rou

p)

Five year age group

Curry County – Age Specific Fertility Rates

2000

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census. Oregon Health Authority, Center for Health Statistics. Calculated by Population Research Center

(PRC).

2000 2010

Total fertility rate 1.812 2.106


0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

Fe

rtil

ity r

ate

(B

irth

s p

er

wo

ma

n b

y f

ive

ye

ar

ag

e g

rou

p)

Five year age group

Curry County and Oregon – Age Specific Fertility Rates (2010)

Oregon (2010)

Curry County (2010)


(PRC).

Curry County Oregon

Total fertility rate 2.106 1.805



(PRC).


0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

0 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Su

rviv

al

ra

te

(Pe

rce

nt

surv

ive

d e

ach

fiv

e y

ea

r a

ge

gro

up

)

Five year age group

Curry County – Age Specific Survival Rates

2000

2010


(PRC).


0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

0 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Su

rviv

al

ra

te

(Pe

rce

nt

surv

ive

d e

ach

fiv

e y

ea

r a

ge

gro

up

)

Five year age group

Curry County and Oregon – Age Specific Survival Rates

Oregon (2010)

Curry County (2010)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 Decennial Census. Calculated by Population Research Center (PRC).

Note: Dependency Ratio = {[(Population Age 0-14) + (Population Age 65 or older)] / (Population Age 15-64)} x 100


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 1990 2000 2010

De

pe

nd

en

ts p

er

100 w

ork

ing

ag

e p

ers

on

s

Curry County - Dependency Ratio

Total Youth Elderly



Curry County

Hispanic or Latino and race 2000 2010 Change

Total population 21,137 100.0% 22,364 100.0% 1,227 5.8%

Hispanic or Latino 761 3.6% 1,201 5.4% 440 57.8%

Not Hispanic or Latino 20,376 96.4% 21,163 94.6% 787 3.9%

White alone 19,206 90.9% 19,837 88.7% 631 3.3%

Black or African American alone 31 0.1% 62 0.3% 31 100.0%

American Indian and Alaska Native alone 408 1.9% 391 1.7% -17 -4.2%

Asian alone 144 0.7% 157 0.7% 13 9.0%

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone 21 0.1% 21 0.1% 0 0.0%

Some Other Race alone 29 0.1% 16 0.1% -13 -44.8%

Two or More Races 537 2.5% 679 3.0% 142 26.4%



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Total Occupied Vacant

Ho

usi

ng

un

its

Curry County - Housing Units

2000 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census. Calculated by Population Research Center (PRC).

*Note: Percent Seasonal Housing is the proportion of total housing units in 2010 that are identif ied as vacant “for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use.”


Percent

Seasonal

Housing*

2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2010

Oregon 2.51 2.47 91.8% 90.7% 2.3% 2.3% 3.31%

Curry County 2.19 2.12 83.7% 82.6% 1.3% 1.4% 8.96%

Brookings 2.30 2.26 88.3% 85.4% 2.7% 2.9% 6.91%

Gold Beach 2.19 2.05 84.0% 80.9% 4.2% 2.5% 7.41%

Port Orford 2.02 1.86 86.3% 78.6% 0.0% 1.1% 10.17%

Unincorporated 2.16 2.09 81.7% 82.1% 0.4% 0.5% NA

Persons Per

Household (PPH) Occupancy Rate

Percent Group

Quarters

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013. Quarterly Workforce Indicators Data. Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program. http://ledextract.ces.census.gov/.



-2%

8%

18%

28%

38%

48%

Pe

rce

nt

em

plo

ym

en

t g

row

th a

ll in

du

stri

es

(I

nd

ex

ed

to

1991)

Curry County - Employment Growth since 1991

Recession

Oregon

Curry

http://ledextract.ces.census.gov/


Source: Oregon Employment Department. Local Area Employment Statistics. Oregon Labor Market Information System. http://w ww.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/labforce.

Note: The rate represents the percent of the labor force seeking w ork but not employed.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te

Curry County and Oregon - Unemployment Rate

Recession

Oregon

Curry

http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/labforce

http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/labforce

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013. Quarterly Workforce Indicators Data. Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program. http://ledextract.ces.census.gov/.


Note: The quarterly employment data used in this chart is not seasonally adjusted.


300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

To

tal

em

plo

ye

d

Curry County - Top Three Industries by

Average Quarterly Employment in 2013

Recession

Health Care and Social Assistance

Accommodation and Food Services

Retail Trade



• Questions?

• Discussion time

Local Input and Additional Information

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