oregon seed council’s usda foreign agricultural service market access program project
DESCRIPTION
Project Briefing. Oregon Seed Council’s USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Market Access Program Project. January, 2002 Update. Oregon Seed Council’s USDA FAS MAP Project. Oregon Seed Council. http://forages.orst.edu/organizations/seed/osc/. Industry-wide trade association comprised of: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Grass seed exports to China
Total pounds per year: 87,545 338,479 1,443,942 3,252,616 3,997,872 6,408,629 6,817,745 7,333,862
8,277 % increase!
(pounds)
W.C. Young III Augusr 29, 2001 Source: USDA-FAS
1
1
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Chart2
5502890.3202395
297832.7134174
1320456
648378
710404
Grass Seed Market Share for China in 2000
Figure 6a Grass Seed Market Share for China in 2000
Sheet1
YearOregonRest_USDenmarkNetherlandsNew ZealandYearOregonRest_USDenmarkNetherlandsNew Zealand
9123,040154,000177,0409150,7940.00.00.0339,508
9239,67319,053161,400220,1269287,46242,0050.00.0355,822
9358,93931,616131,720222,27593129,93869,7000.00.0290,390
9489,41632,02811,14759,260191,85194197,12770,60924,5750.0130,645
95543,897118,99127,300445690,633951,199,075262,32860,1860.0981
96480,90752,706100,32230,433131,305795,673961,060,208116,195221,17067,093289,475
971,668,474320,619310,60997,44469,5492,466,695973,678,318706,837684,769214,825153,328
982,721,894381,511428,97038,71041,2163,612,301986,000,687841,080945,70785,34090,865
993,670,432389,0481,677,806139,88272,5895,949,757998,091,834857,6953,698,891308,384160,030
005,502,890297,8331,320,456648,378710,4048,479,961012,131,672656,6022,911,0771,429,4141,566,157
0.650.040.160.0760.084
Sheet1
23040.0072575524919191154000
39672.502948380719053.34301006999292161400
58939.490156944631615.71260092539393131720
89416.220629592732028.0322961081111479459260
543896.852036651118991.2002177272730095445
480907.19404880752705.70625056710032230433131305
1668474.09960991320619.1599383113106099744469549
2721893.76757688381511.3852853134289703871041216
3670431.82436723389047.899845777167780613988272589
5502890.3202395297832.71341741320456648378710404
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Kg
Figure 6bChinese Imports of Grass Seed by Country
Sheet2
23040.0072575524919191154000
39672.502948380719053.34301006999292161400
58939.490156944631615.71260092539393131720
89416.220629592732028.0322961081111479459260
543896.852036651118991.2002177272730095445
480907.19404880752705.70625056710032230433131305
1668474.09960991320619.1599383113106099744469549
2721893.76757688381511.3852853134289703871041216
3670431.82436723389047.899845777167780613988272589
5502890.3202395297832.71341741320456648378710404
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Figure 6cGrass Seed Market Share for China
Sheet3
23040.0072575524919191154000
39672.502948380719053.34301006999292161400
58939.490156944631615.71260092539393131720
89416.220629592732028.0322961081111479459260
543896.852036651118991.2002177272730095445
480907.19404880752705.70625056710032230433131305
1668474.09960991320619.1599383113106099744469549
2721893.76757688381511.3852853134289703871041216
3670431.82436723389047.899845777167780613988272589
5502890.3202395297832.71341741320456648378710404
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Kg
Figure 6dTrends of Grass Seed Exports to China by Country
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Lbs
Figure 6eChinese Imports of Grass Seed by Country
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Lbs
Figure 6fTrend of Grass Seed Exports to China by Country
0
0
0
0
0
Grass Seed Market Share for China in 2000
Figure 6a Grass Seed Market Share for China in 2000
7402231363637994999
184149607213931413647
062116711
0.4019554590.45549203760.50485976120.41083594680.3666031094
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Chart3
23040.0072575524919191154000
39672.502948380719053.34301006999292161400
58939.490156944631615.71260092539393131720
89416.220629592732028.0322961081111479459260
543896.852036651118991.2002177272730095445
480907.19404880752705.70625056710032230433131305
1668474.09960991320619.1599383113106099744469549
2721893.76757688381511.3852853134289703871041216
3670431.82436723389047.899845777167780613988272589
5502890.3202395297832.71341741320456648378710404
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Kg
Figure 6bChinese Imports of Grass Seed by Country
Sheet1
YearOregonRest_USDenmarkNetherlandsNew ZealandYearOregonRest_USDenmarkNetherlandsNew Zealand
9123,040154,000177,0409150,7940.00.00.0339,508
9239,67319,053161,400220,1269287,46242,0050.00.0355,822
9358,93931,616131,720222,27593129,93869,7000.00.0290,390
9489,41632,02811,14759,260191,85194197,12770,60924,5750.0130,645
95543,897118,99127,300445690,633951,199,075262,32860,1860.0981
96480,90752,706100,32230,433131,305795,673961,060,208116,195221,17067,093289,475
971,668,474320,619310,60997,44469,5492,466,695973,678,318706,837684,769214,825153,328
982,721,894381,511428,97038,71041,2163,612,301986,000,687841,080945,70785,34090,865
993,670,432389,0481,677,806139,88272,5895,949,757998,091,834857,6953,698,891308,384160,030
005,502,890297,8331,320,456648,378710,4048,479,961012,131,672656,6022,911,0771,429,4141,566,157
0.650.040.160.0760.084
Sheet1
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Kg
Chinese Imports of Grass Seed by Country
Sheet2
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Figure 6cGrass Seed Market Share for China
Sheet3
23040.0072575524919191154000
39672.502948380719053.34301006999292161400
58939.490156944631615.71260092539393131720
89416.220629592732028.0322961081111479459260
543896.852036651118991.2002177272730095445
480907.19404880752705.70625056710032230433131305
1668474.09960991320619.1599383113106099744469549
2721893.76757688381511.3852853134289703871041216
3670431.82436723389047.899845777167780613988272589
5502890.3202395297832.71341741320456648378710404
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Kg
Figure 6dTrends of Grass Seed Exports to China by Country
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Lbs
Figure 6eChinese Imports of Grass Seed by Country
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Lbs
Figure 6fTrend of Grass Seed Exports to China by Country
0
0
0
0
0
Grass Seed Market Share for China in 2000
Figure 6a Grass Seed Market Share for China in 2000
7402231363637994999
184149607213931413647
062116711
0.4019554590.45549203760.50485976120.41083594680.3666031094
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Chart2
0.02304000730000.154
0.03967250290.019053343000.1614
0.05893949020.0316157126000.13172
0.08941622060.03202803230.01114700.05926
0.5438968520.11899120020.027300.000445
0.4809071940.05270570630.1003220.0304330.131305
1.66847409960.32061915990.3106090.0974440.069549
2.72189376760.38151138530.428970.038710.041216
3.67043182440.38904789981.6778060.1398820.072589
5.50289032020.29783271341.3204560.6483780.710404
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Fig 6cGrass Seed Market in China
Sheet1
YearOregonRest_USDenmarkNetherlandsNew ZealandYearOregonRest_USDenmarkNetherlandsNew Zealand
910.0230.0000.0000.0000.1540.1779100.00.00.00
920.0400.0190.0000.0000.1610.22092000.00.00
930.0590.0320.0000.0000.1320.22293000.00.00
940.0890.0320.0110.0000.0590.192940000.00
950.5440.1190.0270.0000.0000.691951000.00
960.4810.0530.1000.0300.1310.7969610000
971.6680.3210.3110.0970.0702.4679741100
982.7220.3820.4290.0390.0413.6129861100
993.6700.3891.6780.1400.0735.9509981400
005.5030.2981.3200.6480.7108.4800121312
0.650.040.160.0760.084
YearOregonRest_USDenmarkNetherlandsNew Zealand
9123,040154,000
9239,67319,053161,400
9358,93931,616131,720
9489,41632,02811,14759,260
95543,897118,99127,300445
96480,90752,706100,32230,433131,305
971,668,474320,619310,60997,44469,549
982,721,894381,511428,97038,71041,216
993,670,432389,0481,677,806139,88272,589
005,502,890297,8331,320,456648,378710,404
Sheet1
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Millions of Kilograms
Figure 6bChinese Imports of Grass Seed by Country
Sheet2
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Fig 6cGrass Seed Market in China
Sheet3
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Millions of Kilograms
Figure 6dTrends of Grass Seed Exports to China
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Millions of Pounds
Figure 6eChinese Imports of Grass Seed by Country
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Oregon
Rest_US
Denmark
Netherlands
New Zealand
Year
Lbs
Figure 6fTrend of Grass Seed Exports to China by Country
0
0
0
0
0
Grass Seed Market Share for China in 2000
Figure 6a Grass Seed Market Share for China in 2000
7402231363637994999
184149607213931413647
062116711
0.4019554590.45549203760.50485976120.41083594680.3666031094
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Chart3
0
0
0.0097060691
0.0508291754
0.052559648
0.0983452781
0.0334627597
0.0045754332
0.0084822644
0.0277256645
0.0224444344
0.0230400073
0.0396725029
0.0589394902
0.0848630137
0.5208119387
0.475907194
1.63737957
2.6179084641
3.4419082827
5.41555474925.1001949
20016.6468252
20028.4523343
Exports
Forecast
Year
Millions of Kilograms
Fig. 7 Forecast for Oregon Grass Seed Exports to China
Sheet1
YearKgForecast(yhat-y)^2(yhat-ybar)^21st Derivative2nd DerivativeGDPtt2t9t9^2DummyManagerKg-1
19800.0-332699369411-134733164,482,023,424.01100000.0011.216118439900
19810.0-27531244050-115989173,932,658,688.02400000.0011.24038113550.30102999570
19829,706161648137432-97246190,583,242,752.03900000.03.987043380111.28008471210.47712125470
198350,82925358249558-78502211,270,205,440.041600009,7064.706113063911.32483825460.60205999130
198452,560267013-19573-59759243,440,615,424.0525000050,8294.720652448111.38639303730.69897000430
198598,345220684-69960-41016274,092,687,360.0636000052,5604.992753512611.4378974490.77815125040
198633,463133341-101604-22272297,526,198,272.0749001098,3454.524561754511.4735252130.845098040
19874,57523725-114504-3529330,782,769,152.0864001033,4633.660432217811.51954287860.9030899870
19888,482-89420-10866115215366,077,444,096.098100004,5753.928511803511.56357297060.95424250940
198927,726-187350-8407533958381,153,443,840.01010000008,4824.44288196411.581099848110
199022,444-251322-4074552701396,353,961,984.011121000027,7264.35110866511.59808320381.04139268520
199123,040-2625932132871445432,782,344,192.012144110022,4444.362482611611.6362695351.0791812460
199239,673-20241910214490188494,523,842,560.013169240023,0404.598489601111.69418723511.11394335230
199358,939-52056201704108932561,486,036,992.014196390039,6734.770406374811.74933896071.14612803570
199484,863207238ybar320008127675633,512,656,896.0152254160058,9394.928718450611.8017552961.17609125910
1995520,8125942063278188457054146418700,219,129,856.0162565250084,8635.716680931111.84523397141.20411998271
1996475,9071127594612844165162767,292,735,488.01728963625520,8125.677522269911.88496108641.23044892140
19971,637,3801826143356315570042692251537696787378183905835,106,832,384.01832474923475,9076.214149367311.92174203691.25527250512
19982,617,90827085978224428678435968757135980655202649899,970,170,880.01936186421031,637,3806.417954457311.95422811521.2787536013
19993,441,9083793700123757412374268044074231192675221392963,868,053,012.52040098121442,617,9086.536799293411.9840175861.30102999573
200051001955,415,555510019599451834463456833761861914234392401351,040,977,497,253.5214411010022603,441,9086.733642950712.01744134151.322219294755
20016646825664682526706523251877233623208731672946258879-0.518200258570
2002845233484523340.965194119627762280
2003Growth Rate from PreviousRecent R2 ^Growth Rate on Predicted
200420010.2270.3032492543
200520020.5610.27163481
5,502,890
6,646,8251.2078789169
14,653,590.84
8,452,334
18,634,016.201.27163481
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Exports
Year
Kg
Fig. 7 Forecast for Oregon Grass Seed Exports to China
y = 3072.1x3 - 75872x2 + 510522x - 63233 R2 = 0.971
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
GDP
Sheet3
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Exports
Forecast
Year
Millions of Kilograms
Fig. 7 Forecast for Oregon Grass Seed Exports to China
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed CouncilsUSDA FAS MAP Project Establishing Centers of ExcellenceResearch and Outreach ActivitiesTraining of local techniciansDeveloping Chinese language publicationsConducting training in USA to develop local expertiseChina Current Programs
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed CouncilsUSDA FAS MAP Project China Agricultural UniversityNanjing Agricultural UniversityShandong Agricultural University
Centers of Excellence
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed CouncilsUSDA FAS MAP Project China Agricultural UniversityGreen Environmental CenterTurfgrass ProgramsCNTVT demonstration area (tours, training)Interdisciplinary research groupTraining of turfgrass managers and municipal landscape design professionals Chinese Turfgrass Society linkageCo-author of national turf textbook
Centers of ExcellenceHU Lin
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed CouncilsUSDA FAS MAP Project Nanjing Agricultural UniversityGrassland Science and Extension CenterTurfgrass ProgramsCNTVT demonstration area (tours, training)Training of turfgrass managers Co-author of national turf textbookForage ProgramsApplied research projectsTraining Provincial forage techniciansSoil Conservation ProgramsRiverbank protection and multiple useCenters of ExcellenceJIANG Haidong
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed CouncilsUSDA FAS MAP Project Shandong Agricultural UniversityTurfgrass Science CenterTurfgrass ProgramsCNTVT demonstration area (tours, training)Training of turfgrass managers Co-author of national turf textbookLead PRC cooperator for web-based information systemForage Programs (to be instituted in 2002)University forage courseTraining provincial forage techniciansCenters of ExcellenceZHANG Zhiguo
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed CouncilsUSDA FAS MAP Project 2.Support applied research activitiesForage, turf, and erosion controlChina Agricultural UniversityChinese Academy of Agricultural Science (IAS)Nanjing Agricultural UniversityJiangsu Agricultural Academy of ScienceShandong Agricultural UniversityWuhan Soil & Water Conservation BureauYunnan Grass Fodder StationYiChang MunicipalityTaxin MuncipalityChina Current Programs
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed CouncilsUSDA FAS MAP Project 3.Conduct workshops and seminars using local cooperatorsProvincial and national scopeYunnan Province forage workshop (2001)Turfgrass management programs (CAU, NAU, SDAU) (annual)USA-PRC Grassland Sustainability Workshop (2002)Shandong, Jiangsu, Yunnan provinces forage workshops (2002)
China Current Programs
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed CouncilsUSDA FAS MAP Project Develop Chinese language publications Forage management guides for cool season grassesTurf management circular for southern ChinaSouthern Forages textbook translationTurfgrass Management textbook for university instructionCool season grass descriptive brochures
China Current Programs
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Optimal Forage Species SelectionUsing GIS Mapping Technologies To develop research-based and validated tools for optimal matching of forage crops with production areas and land manager needs. [Optimal matching will result in reduced risk, increased potential for profitable alternatives, and reduced use of non-renewable resources.]Forage Species Project Objective
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed CouncilsUSDA FAS MAP Project Only center in the world dedicated solely to climate mappingMap products are the most consistently detailed, accurate, and comprehensive; becauseMap products closely reflect the current state of knowledgeSpatial Climate Analysis Service
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed CouncilsUSDA FAS MAP Project PRISM: Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model- Knowledge-based system using point data, digital elevation model, & other spatial data setsGenerates gridded estimates of climatic parameters (such as precipitation & temperature)Accounts for rain shadows, temperature inversions, coastal effectsPRISM Climate Maps
Oregon Department of Agriculture
PRC Climate Station Map~2600 precipitationstations
~2450 temperaturestations
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Digital Elevation Map
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Optimal Forage Species SelectionUsing GIS Mapping TechnologiesDigital spatial soil data used in these maps were obtained from the CAAS Soil & Fertilizer InstituteData were originally gathered in 1979-1994 national soil surveySoil survey results published in 1995 as a topographical mapUsing original paper map and a national coordinate system, CAAS SFI digitized the soil data into GIS polygonsSoil Maps
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Peoples Republic of China: Soil pH
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Peoples Republic of China: Soil Drainage
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Peoples Republic of China: Soil Texture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Yunnan Province: Soil pH
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Yunnan Province: Soil Drainage
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Yunnan Province: Soil Texture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Optimal Forage Species SelectionUsing GIS Mapping Technologies Environmental factors affect forage species adaptation Critical environmental factors are climate and soil characteristics Species tolerances to factors should be defined quantitatively Quantitative values then applied to climate & soil GIS layers Final adaptation maps should estimate potential yieldSpecies Adaptation Mapping Concepts
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Mapping Criteria: ClimateSpecies Adaptation Tolerances to Climatic Factors
Well Adapted
Species
July Mean Maximum Temp (C)
January Mean Minimum Temp (C)
Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)
Tall Fescue
22-32
>= -10
>= 625
Orchardgrass
22-31
>= -7.5
>= 625
Perennial Ryegrass
22-30
>= -5
>= 625
Moderately Adapted
Species
July Mean Maximum Temp (C)
January Mean Minimum Temp (C)
Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)
Tall Fescue
20-34
>= -15
>= 450
Orchardgrass
20-33
>= -12.5
>= 490
Perennial Ryegrass
20-32
>= -10
>= 525
Marginally Adapted
Species
July Mean Maximum Temp (C)
January Mean Minimum Temp (C)
Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)
Tall Fescue
18-36
>= -20
>= 300
Orchardgrass
18-35
>= -17.5
>= 375
Perennial Ryegrass
18-34
>= -15
>= 450
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Mapping Criteria: SoilsSpecies Adaptation Tolerances to Soil pH
Perennial Ryegrass
Orchardgrass
Tall Fescue
Not Adapted
< 5.00
< 4.25
< 4.0
Minimally Adapted
5.00 5.25
4.25 4.75
4.0 4.5
Marginally Adapted
5.25 5.50
4.75 5.25
4.5 5.0
Moderately Adapted
5.50 5.75
5.25 5.75
5.0 5.5
Well Adapted
5.75 7.50
5.75 7.50
5.5 8.0
Moderately Adapted
7.50 7.75
7.50 7.75
8.0 8.5
Marginally Adapted
7.75 8.00
7.75 8.25
8.5 9.0
Minimally Adapted
8.00 8.25
8.25 8.50
9.0 9.5
Not Adapted
> 8.25
> 8.50
> 9.5
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Internet Map ServerPublic accessView PRISM and adaptation mapsPrivate accessPassword requiredAllows dynamic modeling of grass seed adaptationshttp://blitzen.oce.orst.edu/arcims/adapt/Optimal Forage Species Selection Using GIS Mapping Technologies
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Internet Map ServerMap servicesChina and USAToolbarZoom, pan, identify, select, etc.http://blitzen.oce.orst.edu/arcims/adapt/
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Internet Map ServerMap FeaturesPRISM layersAdaptation MapsLayers: Cities, geopolitical, rivers, roads, etc.PRISM: Mean Precipitation, Min. & Max. Temp. by MonthAdaptation: Tall Fescue, Orchardgrass, Ryegrass
Oregon Department of Agriculture
1. Use Find tool to search for a value.2. Clicking on the table of search results3. Will zoom the map to your selection.
Oregon Department of Agriculture
More layers become visible as you zoom into the mapLegend displays for the grid data layers.
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Run the Adaptation ModelMaxTR = Range of July Maximum TemperatureMinT = Minimum January Minimum TemperaturePPT = Minimum Mean Annual Precipitation
Oregon Department of Agriculture
The map updates to show regions of favorable and unfavorable growth based on inputs to the model.Color legend and table of values used in the model appear with map.Recall previously run model results by selecting grass type and Refresh Map
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Optimal Forage Species SelectionUsing GIS Mapping TechnologiesExpert System DevelopmentIntegration of the maps and field trials within a structured, directed, and flexible expert systemLinked with crop simulation models and dynamic map making on the WWWProject Progress Expert System
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Optimal Forage Species SelectionUsing GIS Mapping TechnologiesValidation (ground truthing)Field-based trials for adaptation (survival and production)Peer review of maps by climate, soil, and species expertsProject Progress - Validation
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Oregon Seed Councils Market Access Program (MAP) Project9 Forage Sites (blue/red)11 Turf Sites (yellow)2 Soil Conservation SitesTrial Sites
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Optimal Forage Species SelectionUsing GIS Mapping TechnologiesInitial Draft of WWW Segment Prepared:http://forages.orst.edu/projects/ofsss/Project Progress Web Site