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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4 th , 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh Lehner

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Page 1: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook

Prepared for:

Housing Land Advocates

November 4th, 2016

Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Josh Lehner

Page 2: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Job Market Continues to Impress

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Page 3: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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Page 4: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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Page 5: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Needs-Based Measures Next to Improve

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Page 6: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Housing

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Page 7: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

7 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Affordability

Quality of Life

Economic Strength

Policy The Housing Trilemma Cities face tradeoffs in terms of housing affordability, job availability and quality of life. Comparing the 100 largest MSAs in the country.

Source: David Albouy, BEA, BLS, Census, IHS Global Insight, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

• Youngstown, OH

Detroit, MI •

Cincinnati, OH • Houston, TX •

• Atlanta, GA • Phoenix, AZ

• Omaha, NE

Oklahoma City, OK •

Des Moines, IA•

Providence, RI • Sacramento, CA • • Seattle, WA

Portland, OR • San Francisco, CA •

Boise, ID • • Austin, TX

Page 8: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

It’s the Supply, Stupid

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Page 9: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

New Construction Rebounds…

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Page 10: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

But Not Enough to Match Demand

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Page 11: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Supply Constraints

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Page 12: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Housing Demand

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Page 13: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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Page 14: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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Page 15: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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Page 16: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Outlook

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Page 17: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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Page 18: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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Page 19: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Peak Renter in Theory

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Page 20: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Peak Renter IRL

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Page 21: Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook · Oregon’s Economic and Housing Outlook Prepared for: Housing Land Advocates November 4th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Josh

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

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For More Information

Josh Lehner

[email protected]

(503) 378-4052

Social Media:

www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com

@OR_EconAnalysis