February 16-17, 2016 RAMADA Hotel Alexanderplatz

Berlin

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Source: The Natural History Museum London; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/Source: Getty Images;http://raconteur.net/technology/

VR

SITTING TOGETHER IN THE LIVING ROOM …

Source: microsoft hololens:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aThCr0PsyuA

VR

… AND EXPLORING

LIFE ON MARS

Agenda

1) Understanding tomorrow’s societies by using megatrends to interpret various

consumer orientations in cultures with a Western influence and in China overthe next 15 years

2) Drawing up concrete, viable recommendations for brand managementbased on values, attitudes and needs

Delivering an integrated system of consumer and brand understanding

that can be directly applied to strategic and tactical measures in

marketing or product development

Page 4

THE VALUE RADAR: ALLOWING FUTURE INSIGHTS

TO BE USED FOR SYSTEMATIC BRAND MANAGEMENT

16.02.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

But we can‘t predict the future

If you plan to steer brands or products

successfully into the future, you want to know

what the future will look like!

Hence, we need to talk about possible scenarios

of the future to be able to plan in the present

Page 5 16.02.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

First hypothesis

Consequently, if we want to know what drives people’s

thoughts / actions and understand the connecting line

between supplier and consumer, we need to

understand their values.

People’s value priorities are crucially important

for understanding and predicting attitudinal and

behavioral decisions.

And if we want to know what will sway and

motivate people in future, we should try to figure

out how our values will be weighted, interpreted,

and lived out over the coming years.

Page 6 16.02.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

Second hypothesis

GIM HAS A LONG TRADITION OF WORKING WITH DELPHI AND EXPERT STUDIES. EXAMPLES OF GIM-INITIATED AND PUBLICY ACCESSIBLE FUTURE STUDIES:

GIM Heritage

Since 1991

GIM Delphi studies

• Merging of value and

consumer research

• Delphi study on “Value

Change in Germany”

(1991)

• “MOVE – Mobility and

Transport” (1993)

• “Future Values –New

Values, new Wishes“

(2001)

• Research with verbal

value statements

(1996)

• Further development of

these value statements

into visual stimuli

• Application in

qualitative and

quantitative research

1996 - 2005

GIM Values

2007

GIM “Vision 2017”

• Focus on Germany:

basic orientation and

trends in different areas

of life

• In addition: international

comparison of 6

countries (USA, UK, F,

RUS, I, E)

2015/16

GIM “Future 2030”

• Analysing and describing

megatrends & change in

values, drawing

conclusions for brand

management: what is

target-group-relevant?

And which brands are fit

for the future?

• Methods: desk research,

mini-workshops with

young experts, Delphi

expert interviews,

quantitative surveys

Page 7 16.02.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

Background and objectives of the GIM study FUTURE 2030

Identification and interpretation of the relevant values, attitudes to life and

consumer orientations in cultures with a Western influence and in China over

the next 15 years

– The focus will be on the DACH region (Germany/Austria/Switzerland), complemented by the European as well as the North American perspective. We will also integrate a comparison with the developments inChina

We derive and develop …

… theses & scenarios for future lifeworlds and value systems

… conclusions on consumer needs in the context of selected industries andcategories

… concrete viable recommendations for value-based brand management which isfit for the future

The innovative and holistic methodology modernises the classic Delphi

method by integrating four modules:

– discourse analysis

– scenario building with tomorrow’s change agents

– Delphi study

– ICU™ Integrated Consumer Understanding (consumer & brand)

Page 8 16.02.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

Meet the project team

› Dr. Hannes Fernow analyses

everyday culture and changes in

society, focusing on values and

emerging technologies. He works as

a senior research manager for the

qualitative department of GIM Berlin

and has extensive experience of

trend research and future studies.

Another focus of his work is on

national and international research

regarding brand perception,

concept testing and marketing

strategy in the automotive and

mobility industries. Before joining GIM

Berlin, he successfully completed his

PhD on climate risks between

innovation and regulation at the

University of Heidelberg. He is the

author of several books and has

published in peer-reviewed journals.

Page 9 16.02.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

› Dr. Mirjam Hauser analyses

changes in society, the economy

and technology, focusing on

consumer behaviour, values and

consumer psychology. Before

joining GIM Suisse she was a

senior trend researcher at the

renowned Swiss think tank GDI

Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute.

Parallel to this, she successfully

completed her PhD on food-

related values, attitudes and

consumer behaviour at the

University of Zurich. She is the

author of several GDI studies on

the future of food, Swiss youth,

sharing, social identity, and many

more topics, and has published

in peer-reviewed journals.

› Dr. Björn Huber, a

sociologist, can look

back on almost 10

years of experience in

market research – both

qualitative and

quantitative. Björn

works for the B2B

technology

department in

Heidelberg, focusing

on trend research,

target group

segmentation, brand

positioning and the

development of

innovative and

intelligent research

methods.

(1) Discourse

Analysis

Literature review

and analysis of

relevant studies

(2) Future

Lounges

Hypothesis building

with tomorrow’s

change agents

(3) Analysis Workshop

Interim analysis

of data and

development of

trends thesis

(4) Delphi study

Individual

explorations of

relevant trends &

values with

renowned experts

of today

(5) Analysis Workshop

Interim analysis of

field phase and

development of

value thesis

(6) Translation Sessions

Round tables

with internal GIM

experts to derive

relevant

implications for

selected industries

(7) ICU™

‘Integrated

Consumer

Understanding’:

Quantitative

consumer & brand

study

(8) Reporting

Drawing up viable

recommendations

for brand

management

OUR RESEARCH PROCESS INCLUDES INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE PHASES.

Research approach

Page 10 16.02.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

TOMORROW’S CHANGE AGENTS

age 11

Researcher GDI Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute PhD candidate, HEC, UniL Interaction Designer, ZHDK Founder/Creative Director‚Das Kollektiv‘ PhD candidate HFG Offenbach Sociologist of technology TU Berlin Co-founder, ecoligo Venture Capitalist

Software developer PhD candidate political science PhD candidate physics Business Informatics

(2) Future

Lounges

Our experts

Page 12 16.02.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

HOW WILL THESE MEGATRENDS AFFECT HUMAN VALUES IN 2030?

(4) Delphi study

o Christoph Lütge

o Michael Lissack

o Gordon Nemitz

o Ulrich Oltersdorf

o Frank Ruff

o Wolfgang Schluchter

o Erika Spieß

o Karin Vey

o Peter Wippermann

SOME OF OUR EXPERTS:

o Kurt J. Arnold

o Russell Belk

o David Bosshart

o Christopher Coenen

o Robin N. Fiore

o Martin Gessmann

o Anita Tsz-Shan Ho

o Fabian Hemmert

o Christian Lamprechter

Brands: fitness for the future

Page 13 16.02.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

ICU™ INTEGRATED CONSUMER UNDERSTANDING

(7) ICU™

Com-

peten-

cies

GIM Value Radar

WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE?

• Integrating and mixing different

modules in an interdisciplinary way

• Forecasting values in the framework

of societal, technological and

economic megatrends

• Continuous workflow to transfer

trend- and future studies to a

broader context

• Linked to the concrete tasks and

tools for steering brands or products

successfully into the future

Source: https://unsplash.com/; Photo: Joshua Hibbert

GIM FUTURE 2030

Orientation for changing values in society

ALGORITHMISATIONBig data as well as robotisation are based on smart software

which allows for a new form of autonomisation, transparency

and personal pre-selection of decision-making options:

This can be understood in a negative way as incapacitation and

supervision and a loss of freedom and employment – and in a

positive way as a relief of burden.

ALGORITHMIZATION | Some examples

Page 17 20.01.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

Moley has created the world's first robotic kitchen. The consumer version

set for launch in 2017 will be supported by an iTunes' style library of recipes.www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdwfoBbEbBE

Pepper is the first robot in the

world that is able to read

people’s facial expressions and

listen to their tone of voice to

analyse how they’re feeling.www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLhYrGsPCe8

Source: http://www.information-

age.com/technology/mobile-and-

networking/123458485/why-internet-

things-more-just-smart-fridge

Source: http://www.onyxbeacon.com

ALGORITHMISATION

UTILISATIONThe old ideal of self-realisation turns into the concrete objective

of self-utilisation:

The personality turns into social capital, and material property

and intellectual goods become usable resources.

One example is the sharing and/or access economy which

definitely arises from non-material motivations, but also follows

the maxim of usefulness.

UTILIZATION | Some examples

Page 19 20.01.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

UTILISATION

SHAPINGThe shaping of oneself and the environment (e.g. city and

climate design) is witnessing an unprecedented depth of

intervention, breadth of scope and public awareness.

The Quantified Self promotes and requires cyclical thinking

based on the criterion of sustainability, but there is also a feeling

of “permanent beta“, of constant incompleteness.

SHAPING | Some examples

Page 21 20.01.16 Qual 360 The Innovation Hub2016

NEW BALANCE LAUNCHES TECHNOLOGY

DIVISION DEDICATED TO IMPROVING

ATHLETE PERFORMANCESource: http://newbalance.newsmarket.com

Climate EngineeringSource: http://www.spp-climate-engineering.de

SHAPING

Genetic EngineeringSource: http://gizmodo.com/5991488/the-super-protein-

that-can-cut-dna-and-revolutionize-genetic-engineering

Biowearable Tech Tattoos

Monitor Your VitalsSource: http://www.psfk.com/2016/01/tech-tats-

monitor-your-vitals-biowearables-chaotic-moon.html

FRAGMENTATIONWestern societies are becoming polarised along different lines:

information competence, capital, health, participation in digital

transformation.

This diminishes social mobility. The result is people who are

‘excluded‘ / ‘frustrated‘ / ‘superfluous‘. This goes hand in hand

with a search for meaning and/or a radicalization.

But global political and economic shifts in power (from politics

to capital, from the USA to China) also contribute to new social

ruptures.

FRAGMENTATION | Some examples

Gated Community ‘Horizon Hills’, MalaysiaSource: www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/kunst_architektur/die-stadt-als-festung-1.18629764 - Bild: Ian Teh / VU / Keystone)

PegidaSource: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/

deutschland/bild-1071359-942485.html

Young Europeans fighting for the ISSource: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/frankreich-attentaeter-terroristen-

der-generation-syrien-a-1063011.html

FRAGMENTATION

NEW HOME COMMUNITIES BASED ON CERTAINCOMMON PRINCIPLES SUCH AS SUSTAINABILITYON

THE ONE HAND, GATED COMMUNITIES ON THEOTHER

HikikomoriPhoto:YUTAONODA

Charter CitiesSource: http://livecannerydavis.com Foto: FlorianPeljak

RELOCALISATION

The local, physical position is developing into a counter-trend

towards de-spatialisation, mobility, migration and virtualisation

of total globalisation.

Individuals immerse themselves in concrete, tangible projects of

local impact, a trend which also manifests itself in new maker

movement, neighbourhood support and political participation

of citizens at community level.

016

RELOCALISATION

A VALUE-BASED CULTURE

OF TOGETHERNESS

Urban Manufactoring /

Urban Hand-MadeSource: http://iq.intel.com/report-shows-maker-movement-natural-entry-girls-women-technology

Guerilla Gardening ViennaSource:http://derstandard.at/1311802264787/7-Neubau-Guerilla-Gardening-laesst-Neubau-erbluehen;photo: dariush onghaie

Source: Getty Images; http://raconteur.net/technology/ Source: http://www.nextbigwhat.com/indian-startup-ecosystem-2015-297/

KEEP INFORMED ABOUT THE ONGOING STUDY ON:

www.gim-future2030.com

THANK YOU!

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February 16-17, 2016 RAMADA Hotel Alexanderplatz

Berlin

Organized by