organizing what the world knows about the future

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Organizing What the World Knows about the Future Staffan Truvé, PhD CTO

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An introduction from Recorded Future co-founder Staffan Truve of how we organize what the world knows about the future.

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Page 1: Organizing What the World Knows about the Future

Organizing What the World Knows about the FutureStaffan Truvé, PhD

CTO

Page 2: Organizing What the World Knows about the Future

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Why Recorded Future?

• The web is loaded with predictive signals

• Temporal analysis needed to reveal them –

search is not enough

• Allows for shifted focus of (business) intelligence:

Outwards and Forward, not Inwards and Backward

Page 3: Organizing What the World Knows about the Future

Web Loaded with Predictive Signals

04/10/2023 3

Silicon Valley executives head to Vail, Colo. next week for the annual Pacific Crest Technology Leadership Forum

The carrier may select partners to set up a new carrier as early as next month

“2010 is the year when Iran will kick out Islam. Ya Ahura we will.”

“... Dr Sarkar says the new facility will be operational by March 2014...”

Drought and malnutrition hinder next year’s development plans in Yemen...

“...opposition organizers plan to meet on Thursday to protest...”

“Excited to see Mubarak speak this weekend...”

“According to TechCrunch China’s new 4G network will be deployed by mid-2010”

“Strange new Russian worm set to unleash botnet on 4/1/2012...”

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Some questions you cannot aska search engine about

• Which heads of state visited Libya in 2010?

• What pharma companies are releasing new

products in the first quarter of 2012?

• What do French bloggers say about the

earthquake in Haiti?

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From Unstructured Text to Analyzable Data

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Recorded Future Data

STRUCTURE

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STRUCTURE

A scene has to have a rhythm of its own, a structure of its own.

Michelangelo Antonioni

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STRUCTURE

• ENTITIES:

persons, places, products, technologies, companies, …

• EVENTS:

meetings, travels, acquisitions, earnings calls, product

releases, natural disasters, elections, protests …

• ONTOLOGIES:

what entities exist, and how can they be grouped, related

within a hierarchy, and subdivided according to

similarities and differences:

Geography, World Leaders, Corporations and officers,

Technology Areas, …

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Port au Prince

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TIME

If you can look into the seeds of time and say,

which grain will grow, and which will not,

speak then to me. (Macbeth, Act 1 Scene 3)

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TIME

• Publishing Time vs. Event Time

• Event time: a period in time when an event has

occurred or is expected to occur

• Derived from publishing time +

natural language processing of text

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METRICS

Don't pay any attention to what they write about

you. Just measure it in inches.

Andy Warhol

Page 17: Organizing What the World Knows about the Future

METRICS

• Numeric attributes derived from text fragments,

documents, and larger context

• Momentum – “media buzz”

• Calculated based on aggregate information about an entity

/ event

• Based on relative frequency of occurrence, credibility of

sources, co-location with other entities etc.

• Sentiment (positive, negative, deceit, uncertainty, …)

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Momentum for Michael Jackson 2008-2011

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Negative sentiment for Muammar al-Gaddafi, 2011

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FACTS

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FACTS

• Fact = “the mentioning of an event in a text”• Event type Acquisition

• Attributes (entities) Acquirer: Google, Acquired:Motorola Mobility

• Event time 2011-08-15 – 2011-08-15

• Source New York Times

• Momentum 0.8

• Sentiment Positive: 0.3, Negative: 0.1

• Text fragment Google Inc. and Motorola Mobility

Holdings, Inc. today announced that

they have entered into a definitive

agreement under which Google will

acquire Motorola Mobility for …

• More than 3 billion facts in Recorded Future index

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SEARCH

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STRUCTURE

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Querying the index

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ELAST 24 MONTHSPRODUCT RELEASE -- APPLE

RESULT SET ORDERED BY METRIC

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PREDICTIONS"Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to

strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary

men, is foreknowledge."

(from The Art of War by Sun Tzu, Section 13)

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SENSORS FOR CURRENT STATE + MATHEMATICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS

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Predicting through algorithmic crowdsourcing

As of Sept. 15 2011

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Wikipedia:The southwestern summer monsoons occur from June through September.

Learning how the world works

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• Predicting trading volume

• Predicting stock returns from sentiment

• Predict volatility by future events

• Single blog impact analysis

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http://www.predictivesignals.com/

Using Recorded Future Data to Trade

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Unlock the predictive power of the web!