OrientationOrientation

AWOC Winter Weather Track

Instructional Component 1

by

Warning Decision Training Branch

AWOC Winter Weather Track

Instructional Component 1

by

Warning Decision Training Branch

Here is the Outline of the OrientationHere is the Outline of the Orientation

Section 1: Purpose of Course

Section 2: Overview of the Course

Section 3: Roles and Responsibilities

Section 4: Timelines

Section 1: Purpose of the CourseWhy a Winter Weather Track?

Section 1: Purpose of the CourseWhy a Winter Weather Track?

• Winter Weather Impacts on Transportation– Nearly 74% of nation’s roads are located in snowy regions– 7000 deaths/year– 1.4 million crashes – $10 billion economic losses

Source: Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) 2004

Buffalo, New York, 1977, Photographer: American Red Cross

Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track?Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track?

• Winter Weather Impacts on Transportation (cont.)– Freeway speed and traffic volume reduced by 16-30%– 23% of travel time delays– Increased operating and maintenance costs (nearly 39% of road

operating costs can be attributed to winter maintenance annually)

Chicago, IL, Jan. 26, 1967, Photographer: Dept. of Streets and Sanitation

Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track?Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track?

• Impacts on Public – No energy reserves – Heating costs– Snow-removal costs – Closures – Insurance losses

Rapidly Escalating Societal Demands Rapidly Escalating Societal Demands

• Energy Industry has changed in just the past 10 years

• Has evolved to a “No Storage” model

Rapidly Escalating Societal DemandsRapidly Escalating Societal Demands

Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track?Section 1: Why a Winter Weather Track?

• Impacts on Schools

Image Source: Tulsa Union Public Schools

So, What are the Goals of the Course?So, What are the Goals of the Course?

The Purpose Of AWOC

“To provide training to all warning forecasters on winter weather warning

decision making principles”

To warn To not warn

We Use These Metrics to Report Our Performance to the Public and to Congress

We Use These Metrics to Report Our Performance to the Public and to Congress

Government Performance Requirements Act (GPRA) Performance Measure

Goals Actual Goals

2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Weather and Water Goals

Storm-Based Tornado Warning Accuracy (%) 67 72 69 70 70 72 72 72

Storm-Based Tornado False Alarm Rate (%) 74 75 72 72 72 70 70 70

Storm-Based Tornado Warning Lead Time (Min) 11 14 12 12 12 13 13 13

Flash Flood Warnings - Accuracy (%) 90 91 90 75 75 76 76 76

Flash Flood Warnings - Lead Time (Min) 49 77 49 49 49 49 49 49

Hurricane Track Forecasts (48 Hours, RMS) 109 86 108 107 106 102 100 98

Hurricane Intensity Error (48 Hour, Knots) 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12

Precipitation Forecast – Day-1 Threat Score (%) 29 33 29 30 30 31 32 32

Winter Storm Warnings - Accuracy (%) 90 89 90 90 90 91 91 91

Winter Storm Warnings - Lead Time (Hours) 15 17 15 15 16 16 16 17

Section 1: Purpose of Course (cont.)Section 1: Purpose of Course (cont.)

• The training is also directly related to NOAA Commerce and Transportation Goals– Surface Weather Program

– Accuracy of onset of event (frozen and freezing precip)– 0-6 hrs period: 85%

– Aviation Program2008 2008o 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Section 2 : Overview of the AWWTSection 2 : Overview of the AWWT

• Collaborative Development Process

• What’s in the Course?

PartnershipsPartnerships

Peter Manousos (HPC)

Dan Peterson (HPC)

Paul Stokols (OCWWS)

Richard Grumm (CTP)

Eric Stevens (AFG)

Phil Schumacher (RAP)

David Schultz (NSSL)

Michael Evans (BGM)

Tom Niziol (BUF)

Randy Graham (GRR/SLC)

Ken Harding (ABR)

Dan Cobb (CAR/GRR)

Dan Baumgardt (ARX) review team

Carl Dierking (JNU)

Bruce Smith (APX)

Peter Banacos (SPC/BTV)

Pat Market (Univ. of Missouri-Columbia)

Brian Motta (FDTB)

John McLaughlin (Des Moines TV station)

Julie Adolphson (GGW)

Doug Wesley (COMET)

Dan Bikos (VISIT/CIRA)

Mike Myers (GJT)

Dave Reynolds (MTR)

Shannon White (OCWWS) review team

Section 2: Here is the AWWTSection 2: Here is the AWWT

• Intended Audience– NOAA/NWS Forecasters with Winter Weather Warning Responsibility– WFOs/National Centers (HPC, SPC)

• Pre-requisites– DLOC or WSR-88D Ops Course Graduate

• Deliverables – Approx. 20 hours of instructional online courses on the LMS– Printable materials online (slides and notes)– Optional materials (job sheets, software applications, online courses)– Winter Weather WES Version (WES9.2ww)

AWOC Winter Track

IC 1Orientation (30 min)

IC 2Products and Services (1.5 hrs)

IC 3Societal Impacts: Road Weather (2 hrs)

IC 4Climatology (3 hrs)

IC 5Precipitation Forcing Mechanisms (3.5 hrs)

IC 6Forecasting P-type and QPF (3 hrs)

IC 7Monitoring (2.5 hrs)

IC 9WES (5 hrs)

So, What Will the AWOC Winter Weather Track Look Like?

So, What Will the AWOC Winter Weather Track Look Like?

Total = 21.5 hours*

IC 8Non precipitation (1 hr)

Section 2: How are the ICs Structured?Section 2: How are the ICs Structured?

What are Learning Objectives?What are Learning Objectives?

• Learning objectives are defined for each Instructional Component (IC).

• Learning objectives describe what learners should be able to do at the end of each lesson (and are testable via the OLT final tests in the LMS).

“Identify the key elements of the top-down approach to predict precipitation type and amounts in the watch and warning phases.”

What are Performance Objectives? What are Performance Objectives?

• Performance objectives are defined for each IC.

• Performance objectives provide precise, measurable statements of the behaviors that course participants will be able to demonstrate on the job.

“For a given event, be able to disseminate pertinent products and event information to the user community in a timely fashion and update that information at appropriate intervals.”

Learning Activities for Each IC?Learning Activities for Each IC?

+

Articulate Presentations WES Application

+Increased Interactivity

One WES simulationfor the standard course

Two WES simulations forthe platinum course

Interactivity Increases Knowledge Retention

Interactivity Increases Knowledge Retention

Additional WES case and exercises

e.g., microclimate exercise

Throughout Presentations

+N. Hosenfeld, SLC

Sample Quiz QuestionSample Quiz Question

• A complex winter storm event is expected to produce 8” of snow in the northern part of your CWA, 1-2” of sleet and 4 inches of snow in central part of your CWA, and ½” of ice in the southern part of your CWA. Winds are expected to be 10 to 20 mph across the north with some local blowing snow.

• What product (s) should be issued?

• A) Three separate warnings – Heavy Snow Warning north, Winter Storm warning central, and Ice Storm Warning south

• B) Two separate warnings – Winter Storm Warning north and central, and Ice Storm Warning south.

• C) Single Winter Storm Warning for the entire CWA

Winter Weather Product Quiz

How Difficult are the Lessons?How Difficult are the Lessons?

• Advanced Warning Operations Course

Two versions of AWOC WinterTwo versions of AWOC Winter

• AWOC Winter FY 2012 Standard– Includes online courses IC’s 1-7– One WES simulation in 3 parts (e.g., watch, warning, nowcast)

• AWOC Winter FY 2011 Platinum– All requirements of the Standard version and then…– IC 8 nonprecipitation– IC4.2 jobsheet exploring standardized anomalies in the internet– IC4.3 microclimate report to be hosted at WDTB– One additional WES simulation in 3 parts

AWOC Winter Development PlansAWOC Winter Development Plans

Development Plan in the LMS

Target audience notes

WDTB Road Weather FY2012

Forecasters interested in taking the road weather course (IC3)

IC3

WDTB AWOC Winter FY2012 standard version

Forecasters that have not taken AWOC winter

DLOC 2011/2012 graduates

IC’s 1-7, IC 9WES simulation 1

WDTB AWOC Winter FY2012 Platinum version

Forecasters interested in being recognized for taking all the required exercises

IC’s 1-8 + IC4.2, IC4.3 exercise, IC9 WES simulations 1 and 2

Section 3: What is Your (the Student) Responsibility?

Section 3: What is Your (the Student) Responsibility?

1. Meet with your facilitator and choose your development plan √

2. Meet with your facilitator (and MIC) to plan an effective course of completion √

3. Attend an orientation session.√

4. Complete required lessons in your development plan (including surveys and tests)

√

5. Complete IC 9 (winter weather WES simulation) √

Section 3: Student/facilitator responsibilities for the microclimate exercise (platinum only)Section 3: Student/facilitator responsibilities for the microclimate exercise (platinum only)

1. Generate a write-up of the microclimate exercise using similar formats as found in

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/microclimates/index.html

2. Allow your facilitator to review

3. Facilitator sends report to WDTB (awocwinter_list@wdtb.noaa.gov)

4. WDTB reviews and sends back suggestions for improvements

5. Student revises and sends back revisions to WDTB

6. WDTB posts microclimate to the website above

What Do Facilitators Do to Help AWOC?What Do Facilitators Do to Help AWOC?

• Make the learning easier– Meet with each forecaster to determine needs/goals – Set up completion schedule– Assign a development plan– Enrolling students in ILTs– Marking students complete in ILTs– Monitor progress– Be the interface with WDTB– Announce student’s completion

Facilitator and Learning Management SystemFacilitator and Learning Management System

• LMS Duties1. LMS Resources• AWOC Documents Page:

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/awoc/documents.html

• LMS URL: http://doc.learn.com/noaa/nws

LMS front pageLMS front page

Development PlansDevelopment Plans

LMS (facilitators): Inserting users into Instructor Led Training (ILT)

LMS (facilitators): Inserting users into Instructor Led Training (ILT)

The ‘Insert Users into Enrollment’ jobsheet shows you how to enroll students into the AWOC winter

jobsheet exercises and the IC 9 simulation

LMS: Marking users complete in an ILT enrollment

LMS: Marking users complete in an ILT enrollment

From the Training Facilitator Information Page

Facilitator duties with the NWS Learning CenterFacilitator duties with the NWS Learning Center

• LMS Duties(See Job Sheets in “LMS Resources” links below)– NOTE: Must be “Facilitator” in LMS.

1. Attend Facilitator Orientation (ILT) Session

2. Assign a Development Plan a) WDTB Road Weather

b) WDTB AWOC Winter FY2012

c) WDTB AWOC Winter FY2012 platinum

3. Ensure WES/exercise Tasks are Complete 1. Enroll students in jobsheet/exercise ILTs

2. Mark students complete in jobsheet/exercise

Course Completion RequirementsCourse Completion Requirements

• Prerequisites (DLOC or WSR-88D Ops)

• All required lessons, exercises for the specific development plan– When in doubt about what’s required look to the development plan.– Complete Winter AWOC End of Course Test (in Development Plan)

• Each AWOC winter development plan includes IC9, the simulation

• Notify WDTB when student finishes AWOC Winter

Section 4: TimelinesAWOC Winter Wx Delivery Schedule

Section 4: TimelinesAWOC Winter Wx Delivery Schedule

S O N D J F M A M J J

Forecasters Complete Winter Weather ICs

2011-12 Season

Development for FY13 version

Who Can Help?Who Can Help?

• WDTB (LMS problems, etc.)– LMS.nws@noaa.gov

• awocwinter_list@wdtb.noaa.gov – “How does this module work?”

• WDTB.NOAA.GOV

Who Can Help?Who Can Help?

• Contacts– Jim LaDue, AWOC Winter focal point

– 405-325-3004– James.G.LaDue@noaa.gov

– Brad Grant, AWOC Winter focal point– 405-325-2997– Bradford.N.Grant@noaa.gov

– Andy Wood - Road Weather Course– 405-325-3005– Andrew.C.Wood@noaa.gov

– Linda Curtis, Program Analyst– 405-325-3190– Linda.j.curtis@noaa.gov

This Can Be Winter Wx AWOC’s ImpactThis Can Be Winter Wx AWOC’s Impact

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

AWOC impacts

other learning (OJT,events)

other directed training(VISIT, COMET,NWSTC)

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AWOC improves performance,

because all factors for learning and

transfer are addressed!

From AWOC post-training survey Sept-Oct. 2005

260 Meteorologists from all regions surveyed!

Average values shown

SummarySummary

• AWOC will provide an excellent opportunity for improvement in warning performance

• But…

Success Depends on

All of Us!

ReferencesReferences

• Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), 2005: Road Weather Management Program (web site, http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather/).

• Paul Pisano, Lynette Goodwin, and Andrew Stern, 2004: Surface Transportation Safety and Operations: The Impact of Winter within the Context of Climate Change.

• Kenneth Kunkel, Roger Pielke Jr., and Stanley Changnon, 1999: Temporal Fluctuations in Weather and Climate Extremes That Cause Economic and Human Health Impacts: A Review, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

• Freedman, D.H., cited 2003: Pinpoint Weather. Technology Review.– [Available online at http://www. technologyreview.com/articles/freedman0603.asp]

• Denver Post Newspaper (http://www.denverpost.com/archives)