orora limited asx code: ora price: $3.21 12 mth target ... · business summary orora limited (ora)...

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Business Summary Orora Limited (ORA) works closely with its customers to provide an extensive range of tailored packaging and visual communication solutions. These include design and manufacture of packaging products such as glass bottles, beverages cans, corrugated boxes, recycled paper, multi-walled paper bags and point of purchase displays. The Company also offered broad end to end packaging solutions and complementary services, including global product sourcing, distribution, design, printing and warehouse optimization. Every day, millions of consumers buy and use goods in packaging designed, developed, produced or supplied by Orora. Glass Bottles Company manufacture and import both custom and stock bottles for beer and cider. Company also produce both amber and green bottles and can also sleeve beer and cider bottles with custom sleeving line. Company offer a versatile range of imported standard beverage bottles and we often work with customers to develop a proprietary range. Aluminum Cans Orora delivers beverage cans and bottles to some of the beverage brands. Company produce beverage cans, bottle and can ends, supported by a powerful suite of enhancements. The markets for Ororas beverage cans include beer and cider, alcoholic ready to drink, carbonated soft drinks, juices, wine and energy drinks Boxes and Cartons Orora manufactures and supplies an innovative range of corrugated boxes and specialised cardboard packaging to leading brands. Companys products are used in a variety of market segments, including grocery, wine and beverage, fresh produce, meat, seafood and poultry, manufacturing, technology, retail, automotive and e-commerce packaging Other Products Company also manufactures products like Closures and caps, point of purchase displays, packaging equipment, recycled paper, Rigid Packaging, Bags and Snacks, flexible packaging & General packaging materials and supplies. Services Company provide services like Printing and signage, Research and technology, product sourcing, Automation and engineering, innovation and design, kitting and fulfilment, Logistics services and Digital Technology. Latest Research Alert: FY18 AGM confirms growth outlook ORA shares have corrected c10% since its early August peak, but we expect near term support given its AGM re-affirmation for continued earnings growth in FY19. With organic growth projects progressing as planned, and ORA back on the M+A trail with the recent acquisition of Bronco Packaging, we maintain our FY19 forecast of 10% NP growth. At this point, we stay Neutral rated. For more information see research 17 Oct 2018. GICS - Materials Orora Limited ASX Code: ORA Price: $3.15 12 Mth Target Price: $3.70 Rating: Neutral Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investment objectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement with Bell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell Potter Securities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate. Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document. This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is general investment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person. Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in this commission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended. Snapshot Date Market Cap. Shares on issue 12 Month High 12 Month Low 20 November 2018 $3,801m 1,206.7m $3.72 $3.11 Rating Rating 12 Mth Target Price Capital Gain Gross Yield Implied Total Return Neutral $3.70 17.5% 4.9% 22.3% Investment Fundamentals FYE 30 Jun 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Profit $m 209.0 227.0 238.0 253.0 Profit (norm)* $m 209.0 227.0 238.0 253.0 EPS* ¢ 17.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 EPS Growth % 13.3 11.8 5.3 5.0 P/E* x 18.5 16.6 15.7 15.0 P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DPS ¢ 13.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 Yield % 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.8 Franking % 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 * Adjusted for goodwill and unusual items Source: Based on Citi estimates Share Price Chart Total Return on $10,000 Investment

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Business SummaryOrora Limited (ORA) works closely with its customers to provide an extensiverange of tailored packaging and visual communication solutions. Theseinclude design and manufacture of packaging products such as glass bottles,beverages cans, corrugated boxes, recycled paper, multi-walled paper bagsand point of purchase displays. The Company also offered broad end to endpackaging solutions and complementary services, including global productsourcing, distribution, design, printing and warehouse optimization. Everyday, millions of consumers buy and use goods in packaging designed,developed, produced or supplied by Orora.

Glass Bottles Company manufacture and import both custom and stockbottles for beer and cider. Company also produce both amber and greenbottles and can also sleeve beer and cider bottles with custom sleeving line.Company offer a versatile range of imported standard beverage bottles andwe often work with customers to develop a proprietary range.

Aluminum Cans Orora delivers beverage cans and bottles to some of thebeverage brands. Company produce beverage cans, bottle and can ends,supported by a powerful suite of enhancements. The markets for Ororasbeverage cans include beer and cider, alcoholic ready to drink, carbonatedsoft drinks, juices, wine and energy drinks

Boxes and Cartons Orora manufactures and supplies an innovative range ofcorrugated boxes and specialised cardboard packaging to leading brands.Companys products are used in a variety of market segments, includinggrocery, wine and beverage, fresh produce, meat, seafood and poultry,manufacturing, technology, retail, automotive and e-commerce packaging

Other Products Company also manufactures products like Closures andcaps, point of purchase displays, packaging equipment, recycled paper, RigidPackaging, Bags and Snacks, flexible packaging & General packagingmaterials and supplies.

Services Company provide services like Printing and signage, Research andtechnology, product sourcing, Automation and engineering, innovation anddesign, kitting and fulfilment, Logistics services and Digital Technology.

Latest ResearchAlert: FY18 AGM confirms growth outlook

ORA shares have corrected c10% since its early August peak, but weexpect near term support given its AGM re-affirmation for continuedearnings growth in FY19. With organic growth projects progressing asplanned, and ORA back on the M+A trail with the recent acquisition ofBronco Packaging, we maintain our FY19 forecast of 10% NP growth. Atthis point, we stay Neutral rated.

For more information see research 17 Oct 2018.

GICS - Materials

Orora Limited

ASX Code: ORA Price: $3.15 12 Mth Target Price: $3.70 Rating: Neutral

Important Disclaimer - This may affect your legal rights: Because this document has been prepared without consideration of any specific client's financial situation, particular needs and investmentobjectives, a Bell Potter Securities Limited investment adviser (or the financial services licensee, or the proper authority of such licensee, who has provided you with this report by arrangement withBell Potter Securities Limited) should be consulted before any investment decision is made. While this document is based on the information from sources which are considered reliable, Bell PotterSecurities Limited, its directors, employees and consultants do not represent, warrant or guarantee, expressly or impliedly, that the information contained in this document is complete or accurate.Nor does Bell Potter Securities Limited accept any responsibility to inform you of any matter that subsequently comes to its notice, which may affect any of the information contained in this document.This document is a private communication to clients and is not intended for public circulation or for the use of any third party, without the prior approval of Bell Potter Securities Limited. This is generalinvestment advice only and does not constitute advice to any person.Disclosure of Interest: Bell Potter Securities Limited receives commission from dealing in securities and its authorised representatives, or introducers of business, may directly share in thiscommission. Bell Potter Securities and its associates may hold shares in the companies recommended.

Snapshot

DateMarket Cap.Shares on issue12 Month High12 Month Low

20 November 2018$3,801m1,206.7m$3.72$3.11

RatingRating12 Mth Target Price

Capital GainGross Yield

Implied Total Return

Neutral$3.7017.5%4.9%22.3%

Investment FundamentalsFYE 30 Jun 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F

Profit $m 209.0 227.0 238.0 253.0Profit (norm)* $m 209.0 227.0 238.0 253.0

EPS* ¢ 17.0 19.0 20.0 21.0EPS Growth % 13.3 11.8 5.3 5.0P/E* x 18.5 16.6 15.7 15.0P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DPS ¢ 13.0 13.0 14.0 15.0Yield % 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.8Franking % 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0* Adjusted for goodwill and unusual itemsSource: Based on Citi estimates

Share Price Chart

Total Return on $10,000 Investment

Profit & Loss ($M)2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Sales Revenue 2,648 3,415 3,857 4,046 4,255Total Revenue ex. Int. 2,675 3,427 3,872 4,056 4,327EBITDA 223 323 388 418 445Depreciation & Amort. -102 -98 -108 -116 -122Goodwill Amortisation -- -- -- -- --EBIT 120 225 280 302 323Net Interest -44 -38 -41 -38 -34Profit Before Tax 77 187 239 265 289Income Tax -32 -56 -71 -78 -80Outside Equity Int. -- -- -- -- --Profit after Tax 80 131 169 186 209Significant Items after Tax -152 -- -- -15 4Reported Profit after Tax -72 131 169 171 212Preferred Dividends -- -- -- -- --

Cash Flow ($M)2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Receipts from Customers -- -- -- -- --Funds from Operations -- -- -- -- --Net Operating Cashflow 157 254 305 351 329Capex -111 -110 -110 -157 -189Acquisitions & Investments -- -12 -120 -135 -15Sale of Invest. & Subsid. 14 -- -- -- --Net Investing Cashflow -100 -97 -200 -272 -156Proceeds from Issues -- -- -- 6 6Dividends Paid -36 -78 -102 -120 -144Net Financing Cashflow -40 -126 -108 -92 -141Net Increase Cash 17 31 -3 -12 32Cash at Beginning 14 30 67 66 53Exchange Rate Adjust. -0 5 2 -1 2Cash at End 30 67 66 53 88

Ratios and Substantial Shareholders2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Profitability RatiosEBITDA Margin % 8.41 9.46 10.06 10.34 10.47EBIT Margin % 4.55 6.59 7.27 7.47 7.60Net Profit Margin % 1.71 3.85 4.37 4.60 4.90Return on Equity % 3.28 9.11 11.26 12.04 12.79Return on Assets % 2.78 5.38 6.31 6.32 6.44

Debt/Safety RatiosNet Debt/Equity % 46.00 42.09 42.04 43.57 40.94Interest Cover x 2.76 5.94 6.82 8.04 9.37

Top 5 Substantial ShareholdersVinva Investment Management 5.0%

Balance Sheet ($M)2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Cash & Equivalent 30 67 66 58 88Receivables 386 428 516 572 606Inventories 404 451 459 493 559Other Current Assets 34 52 41 47 65Current Assets 855 998 1,083 1,170 1,318Prop. Plant & Equipment 1,544 1,547 1,564 1,649 1,694Intangibles 232 288 378 446 495Other Non-Current Assets 37 55 41 47 65Non-Current Assets 1,899 1,939 2,047 2,193 2,299Total Assets 2,754 2,937 3,130 3,363 3,617Interest Bearing Debt 666 674 696 732 755Other Liabilities 706 821 937 1,084 1,232Total Liabilities 1,372 1,495 1,632 1,816 1,987Net Assets 1,382 1,442 1,498 1,547 1,630Share Capital 513 503 482 472 480Reserves 109 127 137 144 152Retained Earnings 759 812 879 930 998Outside Equity Int. -- -- -- -- --Total Shareholders Equity 1,382 1,442 1,498 1,547 1,630

Current Analyst Recommendations *

* Source: Morningstar. This chart shows the spread of recommendations from thosebroker analyst's in Australia with research coverage of this stock.

Principals & DirectorsPrincipals

Company Secretary Ms Ann Stubbings

Directors

Mr Christopher Ivan Roberts(Non-Executive Chairman,Non-ExecutiveDirector)Mr Nigel David Garrard(Chief Executive Officer,Managing Director)Mr Jeremy Leigh Sutcliffe(Non-Executive Director)Mr George (John) John Pizzey(Non-Executive Director)Ms Abigail Pip Cleland(Non-Executive Director)Ms Samantha (Sam) Lewis(Non-Executive Director)

To access further Research or for information regarding our recommendations and ratings please seewww.bellpotter.com.au

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Orora Limited

Bell Potter Securities Research

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Email [email protected]

Website www.bellpotter.com.au