osman, the daesh paradox and political disillusionment

16/4/2015

http://studies.aljazeera.net/en/dossiers/decipheringdaeshoriginsimpactandfuture/2014/12/2014123105425647136.html 1/9

Last Updated: : Thursday 04 December 2014 14:24 Mecca

The Daesh Paradox and Political DisillusionmentDr. Tareq Osman

[AL JAZEERA]

AbstractThis report argues that the Islamic State (IS or Daesh) organisation can be viewed as a conglomerationof anomalies reflected on several levels and as expressions of general political disappointments. Daesh’sfirst paradox is evident in the context of its emergence in the midst of the Arab Spring, which wasviewed as an indicator of alQaeda’s ideological death. This first paradox is an expression ofdisappointment given what IS preached upon its launch. Daesh presents itself as an Islamic groupseeking to revive the principles of true Islam through the achievement of the Islamic caliphate system,but if this is achieved, it will embody the essence of the modern state, which Daesh is trying to wipe out.This is the essential paradox of the “Islamic State”: It is a state against the state. This paradox clearly

.reflects the failure of the Arab nationstate

16/4/2015


The emergence of the group as a nonstate actor caused general confusion for foreign policymakers ofcountries in the region and abroad. The US has been forced to engage militarily in the area once more,in opposition to Obama’s goal to refrain from military intervention in the Middle East. Turkey refuses tojoin the military alliance against Daesh so long as it is not also opposing the Assad regime in Syria.Similarly, the Gulf States were reluctant to support operations against IS because they do not serve thegoal of overthrowing Assad. Meanwhile, Iran uses its influence in Iraq and Syria in a manner thatWashington views as political blackmail. The emergence of IS represents a setback to the Syrian

.Revolution in particular, and an expression of great disappointment for the Arab Spring in general

Introduction

The outbreak of the Arab revolutions,(1) beginning with Tunisia at the end of 2010, incited widespreadoptimism. Some may term the aftermath the disappearance of the “Arab Spring”(2) because more thanthree years later, there is little optimism left. Events have taken an undesirable turn, with the exception of

(Tunisia, and even it is struggling to keep the revolution on track.(3

The conditions of the other revolutions are not healthy: In Egypt the counterrevolution has prevailed dueto the July 2013 military coup that ousted the first democratically elected president in the history ofmodern Egypt. The 25 January revolution has become just a memory of the past.(4) As for Libya, afterthe death of Gaddafi the country plunged into a political and military conflict which shows no sign ofabatement.(5) In Yemen, things are no less complex: the capital Sanaa has fallen into the hands of theHouthis at an amazing speed.(6) Consequently, alQaeda is flourishing,(7) and occasionally even thesouthern movement calling for secession becomes active, causing the Yemeni revolution’s loss amid thisdark atmosphere. The Syrian revolution has been completely obscured by the dust of a multifront war, a

.war in which IS has emerged(8) as a significant and complex political and military force

This report seeks to present the Islamic State (ISIS) as a paradox. The nature of this paradox is reflectedon several levels: in the context of its emergence, in its political essence, and in its impact on the foreignpolicies of states and intergovernmental relations. The report argues that these paradoxes can be viewed

.as the result of political disillusionment

?ISIS: Is it the Black Swan of the Arab Spring

According to Nassim Taleb,(9) a specific event can be regarded as a black swan if the following threeconditions are met: it is unexpected, the impact of its consequences is great and it is understood andinterpreted after the fact.(10) Thus, the question presents itself: can IS’ emergence in the context of theArab Spring be called a black swan? There was consensus that the Arab Spring (which itself can be seenas another black swan) represented a severe blow to the ideology of alQaeda. According to this ideology,fighting the US and its allies (the far enemy) or authoritarian Arab regimes (the near enemy) is the onlypath to achieving the Islamic world’s independence. The Arab revolutions have clearly demonstrated thatthis conviction is wrong and the Arab peoples were able to oust authoritarian regimes through peacefulprotest. Moreover, political Islam movements were able to reach the apex of power or at least toparticipate in government through democratic means. It can be said the Arab Spring has caused greatembarrassment to alQaeda. The rebellious peoples paid little attention to alQaeda’s leaders who, eversince, have been trying to catch up with the events of the Arab Spring. It was thought that the Arab Springwas the beginning of the end of alQaeda. But instead, breaking the Syrian revolution, IS emerged as the

.most extreme version of alQaeda

This was outside the scope of expectations, and has had enormous geopolitical and humanitarianconsequences. Now that IS has become a tangible reality, it is possible to interpret and analyse thereasons for its emergence, and to study the various consequences that resulted from this emergence. In

16/4/2015


.other words, IS meets the criteria of a black swan if examined in the Arab Spring’s context

Daesh’s paradoxical birth can be interpreted as a disappointment in the Arab Spring. Though the primarygoal of this spring was to remove the authoritarian regimes through civil and peaceful means, all the ArabSpring cases share the reality of not accomplishing their full mission.(11) They differ in the degree oftheir failure and in the causes underlying this failure, so can IS’ emergence be considered a realisticconsequence of this failure? The reality is that disappointment at this failure has rekindled the idea onwhich alQaeda was established: there is no way to bring about radical change, except by fighting. Itallowed the proponents of this idea to proudly say: “We've repeatedly confirmed to you that you will

.”never succeed through democracy

AlQaeda never believed in the Arab Spring. Only when the situation in Syria morphed into general wardid alQaeda begin to treat it as a real spring, and then only to its advantage. The moment the Syrianrevolution was forced into war is the moment of the Arab Spring’s failure and the moment IS wasallowed to emerge. This is the paradox of Daesh’s emergence in the context of the Arab Spring: it

.represents a crude expression of disappointment

Daesh: state against a state

It is clear that that Daesh considers the modern nationstate as its enemy. It seeks, according to animperial perception of Islam, to remove the regional state formed after the colonial era, and replace itwith an Islamic Caliphate state. This leaves the question of the IS’ reality and whether it is regarded as thelatest revolutionary movement in the face of Western imperialism, or as a social Islamic fundamentalistmovement. Perhaps the best approach to understand Daesh is to view it as a modern state. Surprisinglyenough, it has all the structure needed for the rise of the modern state, or at least the Hobbes’ Leviathanstate.(12) In that state, everyone is subject to the Mortal God and He monopolises the right to useviolence in absolute terms. So this is the paradox: the Islamic State, which presents itself as an enemy ofthe modern state, is essentially a modern state. In reality, it represents the modern state in its ugliest form,the totalitarian state. In her analysis of the phenomenon of totalitarianism, Hannah Arendt asserts that thearchitecture of the totalitarian system consists of the following: charisma, historical ideology, asuppression machine and a propaganda system, summarising facism, Nazism and Stalinism as the three

(totalitarian models in her study.(13

Even a limited study of Daesh and its practices reveals that it has all the components of this architecture:It adopts an ideology that encapsulates a vision for the course of history. It works to achieve this vision(the ideology of the Caliphate), and sees the Islamic Caliphate as its destiny for history’s course and willtake all necessary measures to rapidly achieve this end in this world. It seems clear that Daesh rushed itsannouncement of the establishment of the Islamic Caliphate after it gained control over parts of Iraq andSyria. Also, Daesh, as strange as it may be, possesses a level of charisma represented in the caliph, as anheir to the prophet who has the responsibility of directing both religious and secular policy. In terms ofthe system of repression, IS has turned everyone who belongs to it into a killing machine, claiming thatthis is the concept of jihad. As for the propaganda, there is no doubt that Daesh has a strong propagandasystem through which it promotes itself, a system that has actively exploited all products of modernity(which IS claims to be against), such as social media and cinematography.(14) Thus, it can be deducedthat Daesh is Fascist, but based on a religious ideology, which makes it all the more dangerous, becausereligious ideology provides its adherents with some metaphysical reassurance. This renders them evermore daring in implementing their mission, because they believe they are executing the will of God ratherthan the will of mankind. Again this is a serious IS paradox: it advocates active hostility towards the

.modern state, yet it represents the essence of this state in its awful forms of violence and brutality

The disappointment reflected in this paradox is the expression of the fragility of the bloated Arab state, as

16/4/2015


expressed by Nazih Nassif alAyoubi.(15) It is a fragile state although it manifests in the image ofHobbes’ monstrous Leviathin. To comprehend this we must return to Carl Schmitt’s notion that “theessence of politics is the ability to launch the exceptional moment, i.e. the moment of war”.(16) The truepolitician is he who owns the decision at this exceptional moment; thus, the history of politics, accordingto Schmitt, is the history of war, with periods of peace that intermittently permeate the state of war and

(serve the war in one way or another.(17

Accordingly, the state (or the politician) who does not control the decision of war, is politically a“premature” state that has lost much of its legitimacy as a political entity. The Arab nationstate createdby colonialism does not conform to Schmitt’s notion of a state, as it does not have the ability to launchthe moment of its own war. The Arab state makes no clear distinction between friend and foe, whichSchmitt sees as a fundamental aspect of the politician. Who is the enemy of the Arab state against whomit can launch the moment of war? In the absence of an external enemy, this state automatically directs itsviolence inward and the relationship of the state with society becomes a relationship of war in one aspector the other. AlQaeda emerged to fill the vacuum left by a state unable to launch war. It clearly redrewthe map of political hostilities. In fact, all of alQaeda’s activities are directed towards launching apermanent moment of war. Yassin Haj Saleh coined a tragicomic phrase when he called it a “blackmarket for the war”,(18) after the Arab states failed to provide it lawfully. The absence of this “obligatorymissed duty” (in jihadi lexicon) to launch war partially explains why alQaeda’s supporters take it

.seriously

In this context, Daesh added a widened scope of hostilities so that anyone who becomes affiliated with itis a friend and everyone else an enemy. In this obdurate distinction between friend and foe, IS hasadopted metaphysical parameters such as takfir (“infidelity”), utilised to exclude the apostate fromIslam’s framework, and then spill his blood and spend his wealth on behalf of the divine. This is theparadox of IS’ essence as a state against the state, and an expression of disappointment in the Arab state’s

.failure to achieve its political essence

The challenge: Daesh and foreign policy confusion

According to political science literature, the Islamic State organisation is a socalled nonstate actor(NSA), an entity that disputes the state’s monopoly of the political arena. NSAs are structured entitieswith a command structure. They enjoy independence from the state to which they belong geographicallyand usually represent a specific ethnic, sectarian or ideological group that has definite political goals.Since they have the power to potentially achieve these goals, they can influence the state’s policy.Accordingly, NSAs can be classified according to two criteria: whether their scope of work is local or

(international, and whether they are armed or unarmed.(19

Daesh, according to this classification, is an armed and international NSA.(20) It has a clear leadershipstructure (Caliph and governors) and is completely independent from the two countries to which itgeographically belongs (Iraq and Syria). It represents a particular ideological group (a spectrum ofjihadis), and it has in mind a clear political goal (the expansion of domination and achieving a Caliphate).It has sufficient military and economic capacity to make it the richest and most powerful nonstate actorof all. This leaves the question of the threat Daesh poses to various countries' foreign policies as an NSA,at both the international and regional levels, and how this challenge is embodied in the form of a paradox

.that expresses a political disappointment

Washington: the curse of the Middle EastObama’s 2008 arrival at the White House ushered in radical changes to the American strategy that wasadopted during the Bush Junior era from 2000 through 2008, which aimed to consolidate US preeminence in a unipolar world. To that end, Bush adopted the principle of preemptive or preventive war,

16/4/2015


and allowed Washington to send troops wherever it desired, a strategy that reaped a bitter harvest inAfghanistan and Iraq. Subsequently, Obama attempted to reestablish a plurality of polarity and allowother countries to share in the management of the international regime. American foreign policy becamemore modest and less militarised, with Obama seeking to redress what Bush and his inner circle ofneoconservatives had destroyed. He aimed to avoid entering into any war, and sought to focus less on theArab world, giving the Pacific greater foreign policy prominence while adopting a policy of “leadershipfrom behind” to manage the Middle East. Indeed, this was the applied policy in dealing with the ArabSpring events (which surprised the US as well as everyone else), and was clearly manifested in the

(Obama administration's cautious attitude towards the revolutions.(21

However, following three years of “leadership from behind”, there are numerous questions regardingwhat Washington achieved in Syria. One of the answers is the Islamic State’s rapid ascension! Indeed,many criticisms have been directed at Washington's foreign policy toward the Syrian revolution. Criticsargue that Washington’s reluctance to intervene and topple Assad paved the way for Syria to become adestination for jihadis from all around the world, culminating in Daesh. This emergence forcedWashington to return to the Arab world under a broad coalition to fight IS, a return which Obama had

.struggled to avoid

This is the irony, then: Washington’s reluctance to seriously support the Syrian revolution, in order toavoid repeating the Iraq fiasco, and its desire to stay away from the Arab world, is actually responsible (atleast partially) for the emergence of IS, which forced the US to return to the region.(22) This paradoxexpresses disappointment in Washington’s inability to distance itself from the Middle East, which appears

.to be a “curse” that haunts the US, one from which it cannot escape

Turkey: the Kurdish challengeWhen Washington began to rally allies for its war against ISIS, Turkey was notably reluctant toparticipate in coalition operations. Since Ankara is an irreplaceable ally in this context, because of itsmilitary potential and its geopolitical position that facilitates targeting IS in both Syria and Iraq, USdiplomats tirelessly urged Turkey to enter the coalition.(23) Ankara is clearly not Daesh’s ally, yet itrefused to fight what ultimately represents an ideological and military threat to Turkey. This section

.addresses the factors what preventing Turkey from conducting military operations against Daesh

Although Ankara believes that IS is a threat, it sees no real point in engaging in a war against IS in bothSyria and Iraq. Rather, Ankara wants to make fighting IS only part of a comprehensive strategy aimed attoppling the Assad regime. Ankara believes that the USled coalition has completely dropped from itsagenda the goal of overthrowing Assad, engaging instead in a questionable and likely protracted waragainst ISIS. What complicates matters for Ankara is that Daesh has captured nearly 100 Turkish soldiersin an area behind the Syrian border called the Tomb of Suleiman Shah, which houses the tomb of OsmanShah, founder of the Ottoman Empire.(24) Daesh was also previously holding a number of Turkishdiplomats in the city of Mosul, but Ankara managed to liberate them through negotiations. All of this is.another reason Turkey does not want to become involved in direct combat with the Islamic State group

This was evident during the Kobani crisis, a border city encircled by IS. Daesh is obdurately determinedto control it despite all the airstrikes launched by the coalition thus far. Ankara’s reluctance is not duesolely to its strategy to not engage in a war against IS, but also because Kobani happens to be controlledby the Kurdish Democratic Union, an arm of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Syria, which Turkeyregards as a terrorist organisation that it has fought for three decades. Turkey wants any intervention todefend the city to be part of negotiation strategies with the Labour Party, which is a significant internal

(Turkish policy issue.(25

Turkey then, wanted the US to intervene more deeply in Syrian affairs. It wanted a regional and

16/4/2015


international coalition in which it would play a key role in order to overthrow Assad. It is reluctant to joinexactly the existing alliance which paradoxically targets IS and not Assad. The Turkish position towardsIS is akin to hidden hostility or cold war. Turkey’s attitude expresses disappointment at policy towardsSyria, particularly because it has been unable to achieve the overthrow of Assad since the outbreak of the.Syrian revolution and does not want to engage in a war against Daesh which does not also serve this goal

?Gulf States: with or against ISThe Gulf States’ policy toward ISIS can be inferred from their position towards the Syrian revolution.Their primary concern was to bring down the Assad regime, particularly in the cases of Saudi Arabia andQatar. In this context, they initially supported various Syrian opposition factions, but the Islamic State’semergence upset their calculations. IS engaged in a fight with the rest of the opposition factions andachieved significant victories. All the support provided by Gulf countries to overthrow Assad has thus

.been in vain, and instead of fighting Assad, their allies had to defend themselves against IS

Washington was annoyed because Syria had become attractive to Jihadis and was increasingly controlledby Daesh, and the US blamed the Gulf States for turning Syria into a Jihadi haven.(26) When Washingtongathered its allies to carry out operations against IS in both Iraq and Syria, various Gulf States joined thiscoalition. However, there is a question of whether the Gulf States really want to eliminate IS. In actualfact, their position is strikingly similar in goal (albeit with different starting points) to that of Turkey. Yes,IS represents a potential ideological and military threat to the Gulf States, but as long as the IS threat isconfined to Iraq and Syria, the other more important goal is to overthrow Assad. Since this goal is not

(prioritised by the coalition, there is no real enthusiasm in Riyadh or Doha for coalition operations.(27

Thus, it can be said that the Gulf States’ position here is the same as that of Turkey: since the beginningof the Syrian revolution, both have actively sought to create an internationalregional alliance tooverthrow Assad, but to no avail. This situation reflects the disappointment of the Gulf States' policies inSyria. They have been unable to topple Assad, and consequently unable to weaken Tehran's influence inthe region. Instead, the reverse has happened. There is no sign the Assad regime will collapse soon, and

.Iran’s sphere of influence and power in the region is steadily increasing

Iran: When the Enemy Becomes UsefulAt the ideological level, IS is undoubtedly an enemy of Iran,(28) but this may not be the case at thepolitical level. Iran's major goal in Syria is to keep Bashar alAssad’s regime intact and to prevent the fallof Damascus into the hands of an Islamic or proRiyadh regime. Its goal in Iraq is to support a regime thatmaintains the influence Tehran achieved after the US invasion in 2003. This section of the report

.addresses IS’ impact Tehran’s goals before and after the intervention of Washington and its allies

In Iraq, IS has posed a real threat to Tehran’s interests. It has dominated large areas of Iraq (Mosul andAnbar), forcing Tehran to abandon its man Nouri alMaliki and instead support Haider alAbadi as amore consensual alternative. Militarily, Tehran was compelled to send Iranian leaders to Iraq to supportthe Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga forces in their fight against IS, and it also brought its affiliatedmilitias in Iraq (as well as some brought in from Syria) to fight IS.(29) But ultimately, Tehran's losses inIraq cannot be regarded as heavy: alAbadi is still Shia and his relationship with Tehran is not noticeablybad enough to say that Tehran has lost its influence over the Iraqi government. The new government,(which was supposedly aimed at reducing Sunni marginalisation, is still in the hands of Shia factions.(30

In Syria, IS expansion and influence is considerably less than it is in Iraq, since there are several otherJihadi entities (such as alNusra Front and Ahrar alSham) as well as the opposition forces that defectedfrom the Syrian army, all engaged in fighting Assad. Among all these, IS does not represent the mostsignificant danger to the Assad regime. It was busy establishing itself in territories not controlled byAssad, and it also engaged in a bitter war with its “fellow mujahideen” (fighters). Ironically, before the

16/4/2015


USled coalition began operations, IS did not constitute the main danger to Assad, thus it was not the.main danger to Iranian interests in Syria

Iran is undoubtedly not happy about Daesh’s emergence, because the group ultimately falls squarely intothe category of Tehran’s real opponents. Thus, coalition attacks on IS actually favour Tehran’s interestsin Iraq and in Syria. How then, can Iran’s virtual discontent with the coalition be explained?(31) Tehranis aware of the extent of its influence in both Iraq and Syria, an influence that can be harnessed in thefight against IS. It is also aware that Washington recognises this influence and its importance. Thus,Tehran would like to invest its influence in order to change the direction of its relationship withWashington. Tehran was looking to be annexed even semiformally to the alliance led by Washingtonagainst ISIS, as this would mean it gained recognition as a regional power. In return for exerting itsinfluence in support of the coalition, Tehran hoped to gain some concessions in its protracted nuclear

.negotiations with the P5 +1 group

In fact, Washington exhibits great confusion in response to this implicit offer from Tehran. There arereports about a private political message from Obama to the Supreme Leader of Iran that speaks of USIranian coordination to fight IS,(32) but there are also public and ongoing assurances from Washingtonthat it rejects Iran's offer,(33) and that there is no coordination between Washington and Tehran in thecontext of the war against IS.(34) Thus, Washington stands between the hammer and the anvil: it knowswhat assistance Iran can offer in the (tense) battle against IS, but it is not ready to recognise Iran as a

.regional power, nor is it ready to make real concessions on the issue of the Iranian nuclear powers

Ultimately, the outcome of IS’ emergence in Iraq and Syria, and the USled intervention to fight it, appearto be a political gain for Iran. Its influence in Iraq has not been affected negatively; on the contrary, it hasbeen increased significantly by Iranian military presence and Shia militia support to defend Baghdad andIraqi Kurdistan against IS. Iran is playing the role of the saviour in Iraq, and in Syria the coalition strikesare spectacularly wellaligned with Iranian interests as they contribute directly to strengthening the Assad

.regime

In yet another dimension of this paradox, the Islamic State, the ideological enemy of Iran, is actuallyuseful to it in one way or another. Though this paradox expresses disappointment, it does not expressdisappointment at Iranian policies in the region. On the contrary, it represents US and Gulf Statedisappointment, because it seems that Washington's policies since its 2003 invasion of Iraq contribute to

.the interests of Iran, which is ironic, given Washington’s seeming eagerness to do the opposite

Conclusion

IS’ aforementioned paradoxes relate to its emergence in the context of the Arab Spring, the nature of itspolitical essence, and the confusion it brings to the foreign policies of regional countries and the US. As anonstate actor, Daesh has represented a real challenge for the two countries in which it geographicallyoperates: Iraq and Syria. In Iraq it caused the overthrow of alMaliki’s government and the advent of anew government. It also facilitated external intervention in Iraq. In Syria, IS negatively impacted the pathof the Syrian revolution, and actually gave credence to Assad’s insistent portrayal of the Syrian revolution

.”as a disruption led by “terrorists” and “extremists

Daesh has also wrought confusion in the foreign policies of states that are active in the region. The USultimately found itself leading military operations against IS which further strengthen the Assad regime inSyria, as well as increasing Iran's influence in the region in one way or another. The US may even finditself obliged to make political deals with Iran, making Washington appear to stand in same trench asTehran and Assad. Washington’s relationship with Ankara is already prone to tension due to Turkey’shesitance to join the alliance against IS. Ankara does not see any point in the alliance’s operations against

16/4/2015


.Daesh alone without a comprehensive strategy that includes Assad’s overthrow

Daesh’s paradoxes embody several general disappointments. For the Gulf States, after three years ofinvestment in the Syrian opposition, IS emerged to annihilate their aspirations. Turkey does not see anyprogression towards its goal of achieving Assad’s ouster. The US was again dragged into a militaryintervention in the region, even after it had vowed not to get involved in the Arab world anymore.Perhaps the most severe disappointment expressed by the emergence of IS, is the political disillusionmentthat arose after the Arab Spring, because it was seen as a liberation movement that had the potential to

.change the face of the Arab region forever____________________________________

.Dr. Tareq Osman is a researcher specialising in Islamic thought

EndnotesIt is not incorrect to use the term revolution to characterise these events, regardless of the academic debate about its suitability to describe the revolution. .1Some argue that the more accurate description is uprising or revolt, because it did not accomplish a radical change in the current sociopolitical status, whichis a condition in the definition of revolution. However, each of these terms: revolution, awakening, uprising, and revolt are used as synonyms in describingthis event. About the concept of revolution, see: Hannah Arendt, On Revolution, 1965, translated by Atallah AbdelWahab, (Arab Organization for

.(Translation, 2008The term Arab Spring is borrowed from the European context, where the wave of revolutions that swept Europe in 1848 and 1849 was described by the .2term “the European Spring”. The first use of the term “Arab Spring” was in Lebanon in 2005 after Rafik Hariri was killed and Syrian troops withdrew fromLebanon. There was hope for a new era of greater independence. It was also used by American reporters as an expression of optimism that accompanied theattempts of various US administrations to democratise the Middle East in order to solve its crises. The first use of the term to characterise the current Arabrevolutions was by Marc Lynch in an article in Foreign Policy magazine, titled, “Obama and the Arab Spring in December 2010”. The term became

.mainstream after thatOn the particularity of the Tunisian case, see: Tunisian Exception: the Success of Reconciliation and its Drawbacks, International Crisis Group, June .3

.2014.On the military coup in Egypt, see: Going in Circles: the Seriousness of the Second Transitional Phase in Egypt, International Crisis Group, August 2013 .4

For indepth analysis of the Libyan political and military state after Gaddafi, see: Christopher Chives and Jeffrey Martini, Libya after Gaddafi: Future .5Lessons and Implications, (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2014), available at:

.http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR500/RR577/RAND_RR577.pdfSee also: Jason Pack and Barak Barfi, In War’s Wake: the Struggle for PostQaddafi Libya, (Washington, DC: The Washington Institute for Near East

.Studies, February 2012), available at: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyFocus118.pdf.On current Houthi political gains, see: Houthis, from Saada to Sana'a, International Crisis Group, June 2014 .6

The Houthi takeover of the capital Sanaa, with little resistance, provided alQaeda with a real opportunity to emerge again as the sole defender of the .7tribes in the face of alHouthi expansion. This has provided an excellent tribal incubator for alQaeda, and conferred significant legitimacy on it. The fight is

.currently at its peak between Ansar Allah (Houthis) and Ansar alSharia (alQaeda), making Yemen once again unstable and lostIS’ establishment was announced in Syria in April 2013, followed by a June 2014 announcement of the Caliphate and the swearing of allegiance to its .8Amir, Abu Bakr alBaghdadi as Caliph of Islam. During that time, the organisation’s name was changed to the IS rather than ISIL. It is also now known as

.the Islamic State or DaeshNassim Nicholas Najib Taleb is an American academic of Lebanese origin who teaches management science, risk engineering, theories of chaos, .9

.randomness and unpredictability, He is the father of the black swan theory.Nassim Taleb, Black Swan, (2007), translated by Halim Nasr, (Beirut: Arab House of Sciences, 2009), 10 .10

It cannot be denied that the Tunisian revolution is in a better situation than the others. But it also can't be denied that the old regime has maintained a .11presence in the Tunisian revolutionary scene (especially after the latest parliamentary elections in which the Nidaa Tunis party won the highest number ofparliamentary seats). Tunisia’s elevation is primarily due to its relatively positive outcomes as compared to the negative situations in other Arab Spring

.countries, and not to any radical revolutionary standardsThomas Hobbes, Leviathan (Alifiathan), 1651, translated by Diana Harb and Bushra Saeb, (Abu Dhabi: Kalima for Publication and Dar AlFarabi, .12

.(2011.(See: Hannah Arendt, The Foundations of Totalitarianism, 1973, translated by Antoine Abou Zeid, (London: Dar Saqi, 1993 .13

,IS recently launched a highquality promotional film titled “The Flames of War”, available at http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=22f_1411220248 .14.(Nazih Nassif Michail Ayoubi, Overstating the Arab state: Politics and Society in the Middle East, (Arab Organization for Translation, 2011 .15

.(Carl Schmitt, The Concept of the Political, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1927 .16.Schmitt’s ideas were met with criticism because they were linked to his Nazism .17

,Yassin alHaj Saleh, “AlQaeda: Our Alternative Empire”, The Republic, 9 May 2014 .18.http://therepublicgs.net/27974

.(William Wallace, Daphne Josselin, Nonstate Actors in World Politics, (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002 .19.It is a nonstate actor, but as mentioned above it encapsulates the essence of the modern state .20

See: Developments in the US position on the Syrian Revolution, the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, February 2013, .21 .http://www.dohainstitute.org/release/dbc3913241bd48c1852c3d2e394e5c4b

Osama Abu Irshaid, Is the United States Getting Dragged into a New War in the Middle East? Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, October .22.2014

Imad Youssef Qaddoura, Turkey and the Issue of Military Intervention: Between the Pressures and Constraints, Arab Center for Research and Policy .23.Studies, October 2014

.This area was part of the Ottoman Empire, and after the fall of the Caliphate, Ataturk insisted that it remain under the control of Turkey .24To date (November 2014), the maximum concession from Ankara on Kobani is that it has allowed (under pressure from Washington) some Kurdish .25Peshmerga forces from Kurdistan, some Free Syrian Army (FSA) forces and some military equipment to pass through its border to defend the town against

.ISThe most prominent US statement in this context was made by John Kerry at Harvard University regarding the support provided by Turkey and the Gulf .26

.states to jihadis in Syria and the subsequent impact on Daesh’s emergenceThe UAE may have been more enthusiastic in this context, probably because of purely ideological reasons, rather than specific foreign policy agenda .27

.reasons.The Islamic State’s prioritisation of fighting Shias represents a significant difference between it and alQaeda, which prioritises fighting the West .28

Phillip Smyth, “All the Ayatollah's men”, Foreign Policy, 18 September 2014, .29.http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/18/all_the_ayatollahs_men_shiite_militias_iran_iraq_islamic_state

,Mohammed Yamani, “Iraqi Parliament Approves New Government Headed by Haidar alAbbadi”, Reuters, 8 Sep 2014 .30.http://ara.reuters.com/article/topNews/idARAKBN0H322B20140908

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyFocus118.pdf

http://ara.reuters.com/article/topNews/idARAKBN0H322B20140908

http://www.dohainstitute.org/release/dbc39132-41bd-48c1-852c-3d2e394e5c4b

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR500/RR577/RAND_RR577.pdf

http://therepublicgs.net/27974

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=22f_1411220248

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/18/all_the_ayatollahs_men_shiite_militias_iran_iraq_islamic_state

16/4/2015


Parisa Hafezi, “Iran: AntiIslamic State Coalition Beset by Severe Ambiguity”, Reuters, 11 September 2014, .31.http://ara.reuters.com/article/topNews/idARAKBN0H60XJ20140911

Jay Solomon and Carol E Lee, “Obama Wrote Secret letter to Iran's Khamenei about Fighting Islamic State”, The Wall Street Journal, 6 November .32.2014, http://online.wsj.com/articles/obamawrotesecretlettertoiranskhameneiaboutfightingislamicstate1415295291

,Asharq alAwsat, “Washington Rejects Iranian Offer to Link the Fight Against ISIS to Nuclear Concessions”, Asharq alAwsat, 23 September 2014 .33.http://classic.aawsat.com/details.asp?section=4&article=788163&issueno=13083#.VGXwKvmUe3Q

,AlHayat, “Washington: We Have Not Coordinated Militarily with Iran to Face ISIS”, AlHayat, 7 November 2014 .34http://www.alhayat.com/Articles/5557304/%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%86%D9%84%D9%85%D9%86%D9%82%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%A3%D9%8A%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%85%D8%B9

%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%84%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%80.%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4

Back To Main Page

Source: Al Jazeera Center for Studies

All rights reserved to Al Jazeera Center for Studies 2014 ©

Powered by Aljazeera Network.

http://studies.aljazeera.net/en/dossiers/decipheringdaeshoriginsimpactandfuture/2014/12/20141238492604185.html

http://www.alhayat.com/Articles/5557304/%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%B7%D9%86--%D9%84%D9%85-%D9%86%D9%82%D9%85-%D8%A8%D8%A3%D9%8A-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%82-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D9%84%D9%80-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4

http://classic.aawsat.com/details.asp?section=4&article=788163&issueno=13083#.VGXwKvmUe3Q

http://ara.reuters.com/article/topNews/idARAKBN0H60XJ20140911

http://online.wsj.com/articles/obama-wrote-secret-letter-to-irans-khamenei-about-fighting-islamic-state-1415295291