OUR CLIMATE IS OUR CLIMATE IS CHANGING! CHANGING!

OUR CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN CHANGING!

lbhagen@roanokeslant.org

How I became aHow I became aMan-Made Global WarmingMan-Made Global Warming

Anthropogenic (AGW) SkepticAnthropogenic (AGW) SkepticAndAnd

Why I Still AmWhy I Still AmAndAnd

Why You Should Be Too Why You Should Be Too--

Lars HagenLars HagenRetired EngineerRetired Engineer

LBHagen@RoanokeSlant.orgLBHagen@RoanokeSlant.orgwww.RoanokeSlant.orgwww.RoanokeSlant.org

(I Have Never Worked For An Energy Company)(I Have Never Worked For An Energy Company)(except: 60 years ago I pumped gas at a Gulf station)(except: 60 years ago I pumped gas at a Gulf station)

An AGW-Skeptic IsAn AGW-Skeptic IsAn honorable, responsible and An honorable, responsible and

knowledgeable person who questions the knowledgeable person who questions the validity or authenticity of something validity or authenticity of something

purported to be factualpurported to be factual

Skeptics Are Not:Skeptics Are Not:--

Deniers per A. GoreDeniers per A. Gore Flat-Earthers per B. ObamaFlat-Earthers per B. Obama Racists per J. BidenRacists per J. Biden Traitors per R.F.Kennedy JrTraitors per R.F.Kennedy Jr

Let’s Put AGW Global Warming And Let’s Put AGW Global Warming And Climate Change Into ContextClimate Change Into Context

AGW & “1984 DoubleSpeak”AGW & “1984 DoubleSpeak”Isn’t it interesting that the AGW Proponents Isn’t it interesting that the AGW Proponents

with the media’s able assistance have with the media’s able assistance have caused the wordscaused the words

““Global Warming” And “Climate Change”Global Warming” And “Climate Change”To Mean:To Mean:

Man-caused bad things due toMan-caused bad things due to CO CO22 from burning fossil fuels from burning fossil fuels

As if there’s never beenAs if there’s never beenThe NATURAL kindThe NATURAL kind

The ONLY kind “so far”The ONLY kind “so far”

How I Became CuriousHow I Became CuriousAbout The AGW ClaimsAbout The AGW Claims

During a cruise to Alaska in July 2007During a cruise to Alaska in July 2007

I visited the capitol, Juneau, and theI visited the capitol, Juneau, and the

nearby Mendenhall Glaciernearby Mendenhall GlacierThat’s How It All Started For Me!That’s How It All Started For Me!

--

The Data DisclaimerThe Data Disclaimer

The “Data” contained herein is a veryThe “Data” contained herein is a very small subset of the massive amount of small subset of the massive amount of material available on this general subjectmaterial available on this general subject

The Government-Guide’s HypothesisThe Government-Guide’s Hypothesis

The Interior Dept Guide presented aThe Interior Dept Guide presented a graphic of Mendenhall’s recent graphic of Mendenhall’s recent

250 year history and explained that250 year history and explained that

the significant retreat indicatedthe significant retreat indicated

was a result of AGWwas a result of AGW

““Man-Caused Global Warming”Man-Caused Global Warming”

Cause vs. Effect Mismatch?Cause vs. Effect Mismatch?

The receptive audience all nodded their The receptive audience all nodded their heads in knowing approval of the AGW claim heads in knowing approval of the AGW claim (Gore-Mann 2006 Inconvenient Truth)(Gore-Mann 2006 Inconvenient Truth)

However, I found the graphic and the data to However, I found the graphic and the data to be at odds with the hypothesis.be at odds with the hypothesis.

Most of the glacier-face retreat started circa Most of the glacier-face retreat started circa 17501750 and had slowed down circa and had slowed down circa 19501950..

Mendenhall’s RetreatMendenhall’s Retreat2-1/2 miles in 200 years2-1/2 miles in 200 years

Mona Loa CO2Mona Loa CO2(CO2 From all Sources)(CO2 From all Sources)

Some Additional Examples Of Glacial Some Additional Examples Of Glacial Major Retreat Starting in 1750 Major Retreat Starting in 1750

With No CO2 change! With No CO2 change!((Selections based on Glaciers in the Northern Selections based on Glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere that I have seen and that are near Hemisphere that I have seen and that are near

inhabited areas since circa 1750inhabited areas since circa 1750))

Nisqually – Mt. Rainer WANisqually – Mt. Rainer WA Storbreen SW-NorwayStorbreen SW-Norway Nigardsbreen Nigardsbreen SW-Norway SW-Norway

The Retreat Of NisquallyThe Retreat Of NisquallyMt. Rainer WAMt. Rainer WA

What Happened 1750 to 1950?What Happened 1750 to 1950? 1750 Was the approximate end of1750 Was the approximate end of

the climate of “The Little Ice Age”the climate of “The Little Ice Age” The Little Ice Age ended because of the The Little Ice Age ended because of the

onset of onset of NATURAL Global WarmingNATURAL Global Warming The The NATURAL Global WarmingNATURAL Global Warming that ended that ended

the Little Ice Age and subsequent 200 years the Little Ice Age and subsequent 200 years of melting and retreat was clearlyof melting and retreat was clearly

NOT caused by CO2NOT caused by CO2 (man-made or otherwise) (man-made or otherwise)

Greenhouse Effect In AtmosphereGreenhouse Effect In AtmosphereSun Heat In vs. Earth Heat OutSun Heat In vs. Earth Heat Out

A Critical Complex BalanceA Critical Complex Balance

What If NO Greenhouse Gases?What If NO Greenhouse Gases?(No Life As We Know It)(No Life As We Know It)

Total CO2 In AtmosphereTotal CO2 In Atmosphere (Significant (Significant Water Vapor H2O not includedWater Vapor H2O not included))

(CO (CO22 = 0.035 % = 350 ppm) = 0.035 % = 350 ppm)

CO2 Make Plant Grow - PhotosynthesisCO2 Make Plant Grow - Photosynthesis

““A” Carbon-Isotope A” Carbon-Isotope EstimateEstimate Of The Sources Of Of The Sources Of Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CO2 (11% Man-Made)(11% Man-Made)

““An” EstimateAn” Estimate Of The Greenhouse Contributors Of The Greenhouse ContributorsLiterature Data Range For:Literature Data Range For:

CO2: 9% to 26% CO2: 9% to 26% 3X range 3X range Water Vapor: 36% to 72% Water Vapor: 36% to 72% 2x range 2x range

““An” An” EstimateEstimate Of Man-kinds AGW-CO2 Of Man-kinds AGW-CO2 Contribution To Greenhouse EffectContribution To Greenhouse Effect

CO2 Man-made in Air: 11%CO2 Man-made in Air: 11% CO2 Greenhouse Effect: 9% to 26% CO2 Greenhouse Effect: 9% to 26%

Therefore “a simplistic” Estimate of Man-kinds AGW Therefore “a simplistic” Estimate of Man-kinds AGW contribution to the Greenhouse Effect:contribution to the Greenhouse Effect:

11% of 26% => Approx. 3%11% of 26% => Approx. 3%11% of 9% => Approx. 1%11% of 9% => Approx. 1%

How does this Estimate of 1% How does this Estimate of 1% 3% affect 3% affect Global Warming and Climate Change? Global Warming and Climate Change?

What about the other 97% to 99% contributors?What about the other 97% to 99% contributors?

My Curiosity Begot SkepticismMy Curiosity Begot Skepticism

Based on the Glacial vs. CO2 dataBased on the Glacial vs. CO2 data

I Became Skeptical aboutI Became Skeptical about The Two Key ClaimsThe Two Key Claims

that formed that formed

The 2-Legs of the Gore-MannThe 2-Legs of the Gore-Mann

“ “Inconvenient Truth” Claims?Inconvenient Truth” Claims?

1. CO2 is main cause of Global Warming1. CO2 is main cause of Global Warming

2. “Models” predicted the Hockey Stick2. “Models” predicted the Hockey Stick

Gore-Mann Claim “Inconvenient Truth”Gore-Mann Claim “Inconvenient Truth”1. When CO2 is High – Temp is High1. When CO2 is High – Temp is High2. When CO2 is Low – Temp is Low2. When CO2 is Low – Temp is Low3. 3. Therefore: CO2 Drives Temp !Therefore: CO2 Drives Temp !--

(Note the half-million year time scale)(Note the half-million year time scale)

Changing From Half-million year toChanging From Half-million year to 50K year time scale reveals 50K year time scale reveals

a very different view a very different view

A Larger-Scale Of This Graphic Shows:A Larger-Scale Of This Graphic Shows:Temperature Changes Preceded CO2 Temperature Changes Preceded CO2

Changes By Hundreds Of Years!Changes By Hundreds Of Years!

Cause And EffectCause And Effect

Correlation/Tracking Doesn’t Prove CausationCorrelation/Tracking Doesn’t Prove Causation

(Chapter 1 of every statistics text)(Chapter 1 of every statistics text)

AlsoAlso

IF Temperature Changes Preceded TheIF Temperature Changes Preceded The

CO2 Changes By Hundreds Of YearsCO2 Changes By Hundreds Of Years

THENTHEN

CO2 Was NOT The Cause Of The Temperature CO2 Was NOT The Cause Of The Temperature Changes ShownChanges Shown

In “The Inconvenient Truth”In “The Inconvenient Truth”

And And That Claim Is FalsifiedThat Claim Is Falsified

The Gore-Mann Model Hockey StickThe Gore-Mann Model Hockey Stick(The Sum of All Fears)(The Sum of All Fears)

(Famine & Plague & Pestilence & Death)(Famine & Plague & Pestilence & Death)

The “Two False Legs” of the Gore-MannThe “Two False Legs” of the Gore-Mann “ “Inconvenient Truth” ClaimsInconvenient Truth” Claims

--

--

1. CO2 is main cause of Global Warming:1. CO2 is main cause of Global Warming:

Historically FalsifiedHistorically Falsified--

2. “Models” predicted the Hockey Stick:2. “Models” predicted the Hockey Stick:

There is NO Hockey StickThere is NO Hockey Stick

Current Models are Unverified and Current Models are Unverified and Massively Incorrect & DivergentMassively Incorrect & Divergent

NASA Data: +0.8 deg-C in 130 yrsNASA Data: +0.8 deg-C in 130 yrsDoes +0.8 deg in 130 years look like a crisis Does +0.8 deg in 130 years look like a crisis

compared to earth’s historical natural variations?compared to earth’s historical natural variations?

NASA Data: No Significant ChangeNASA Data: No Significant ChangeIn Past 17 Years In Past 17 Years ((No Hockey StickNo Hockey Stick))

(A lot of months were warm & a lot were cool) (A lot of months were warm & a lot were cool)

19 Disparate & Divergent Models vs. Reality19 Disparate & Divergent Models vs. Reality

Were The Last Few Summers Record Hot?Were The Last Few Summers Record Hot? Back to the 30s Déjà Vu – Again Back to the 30s Déjà Vu – Again

(Note the natural yearly variability Warm & Cool)(Note the natural yearly variability Warm & Cool)

How Are The Polar Bears?How Are The Polar Bears?Plus 1250 Bears in 20 yearsPlus 1250 Bears in 20 years

Apparently bears do it in the woods and on the ice tooApparently bears do it in the woods and on the ice too

Note the Natural Yearly Variability Note the Natural Yearly Variability No Tracking Against Increasing CONo Tracking Against Increasing CO22

--

The Seas Are RisingThe Seas Are RisingAnd have been -- well before AGW-COAnd have been -- well before AGW-CO22

Many shorelines are sinkingMany shorelines are sinking something about Plate Tectonics something about Plate Tectonics

What About Severe Weather Events?What About Severe Weather Events?

Contrary to the “News”: Our Severe Contrary to the “News”: Our Severe Weather Events are not new or unique and Weather Events are not new or unique and there is no evidence they are caused by there is no evidence they are caused by AGW-COAGW-CO22 and History Belies the and History Belies the hypothesis that they are!hypothesis that they are!

““In last 100 yrs US population has In last 100 yrs US population has tripledtripled

100 million in 1910 to 300 million in 2010100 million in 1910 to 300 million in 2010

We are now a “Target Rich Environment”!We are now a “Target Rich Environment”!

With 24-7 Hyper-TV-Coverage!With 24-7 Hyper-TV-Coverage!

Let’s Put Some Record SevereLet’s Put Some Record Severe Weather Events in Perspective Weather Events in Perspective

& Context With AGW-CO & Context With AGW-CO22

19001900 Hurricane Galveston Tx -- Hurricane Galveston Tx -- 8,000 Killed8,000 KilledPopulation: 1900 = 38,000 now = 58,000Population: 1900 = 38,000 now = 58,000

No Man-Made AGW CONo Man-Made AGW CO22!!

The Great Tri-State Tornado of The Great Tri-State Tornado of 19251925 No Man-Made AGW CONo Man-Made AGW CO22!!

The Great Tri-State Tornado of Wednesday, The Great Tri-State Tornado of Wednesday, March 18, 1925, is the deadliest tornado in U.S. March 18, 1925, is the deadliest tornado in U.S. history. Inflicting history. Inflicting 695 fatalities695 fatalities, the tornado killed , the tornado killed more than twice as many as the second deadliest, more than twice as many as the second deadliest, the the 1840 Great Natchez Tornado1840 Great Natchez Tornado..

The The continuous 219 mile trackcontinuous 219 mile track left by the tornado left by the tornado was the longest ever recorded in the world as it was the longest ever recorded in the world as it crossed from southeastern Missouri, through crossed from southeastern Missouri, through southern Illinois, then into southwestern Indiana.southern Illinois, then into southwestern Indiana.

It is recognized by most experts as an It is recognized by most experts as an F5F5 tornado, tornado, the maximum damage rating issued on the Fujita the maximum damage rating issued on the Fujita scalescale

The Mississippi River Flood of May The Mississippi River Flood of May 19271927 No Man-Made AGW CONo Man-Made AGW CO22!!

Most destructive river flood in the history Most destructive river flood in the history of the U.S.; of the U.S.; 500 killed; 600,000 homeless500 killed; 600,000 homeless--

The sheer landmass involved in this flood The sheer landmass involved in this flood makes it incredibly noteworthy. Across makes it incredibly noteworthy. Across Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, some Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, some 16 million acres of land 16 million acres of land (26,000 square (26,000 square miles)miles) were inundated with water from the were inundated with water from the mighty Mississippi.mighty Mississippi.--

At Vicksburg, Mississippi, May 1927At Vicksburg, Mississippi, May 1927 the river was the river was 80 miles wide80 miles wide..

The Great Blizzard of The Great Blizzard of 18881888 No Man-Made AGW CONo Man-Made AGW CO22!!

One of the most severe recorded blizzards in One of the most severe recorded blizzards in the history of the United States of America.the history of the United States of America.

More thanMore than 400 people died400 people died from the storm and from the storm and the ensuing cold, including the ensuing cold, including 200 in NY200 in NY CityCity

Snowfalls of Snowfalls of 20–60 inches20–60 inches fell in parts of New fell in parts of New Jersey, NY, Mass., and Conn,Jersey, NY, Mass., and Conn,

Sustained winds of more than Sustained winds of more than 45 MPH45 MPH produced produced Snowdrifts in excess of 50 feetSnowdrifts in excess of 50 feet..

Railroads were shut downRailroads were shut down

5 Record US Weather Events with5 Record US Weather Events with “NO” Man-Made AGW-CO2“NO” Man-Made AGW-CO2

Record Wild Fires Record Wild Fires 1825 – 19181825 – 1918 No AGW-CONo AGW-CO22 The The Miramichi FireMiramichi Fire, , 18251825, was one of the worst forest , was one of the worst forest

fires in North American history. More than fires in North American history. More than 3 million acres3 million acres had burned and at least had burned and at least 160 people killed160 people killed..

Great Peshtigo FireGreat Peshtigo Fire, Oct , Oct 18711871, a firestorm that ravaged , a firestorm that ravaged the Wisconsin countryside, leaving the Wisconsin countryside, leaving more than more than 1,500 1,500 deaddead, the most fatalities by fire in U.S. history., the most fatalities by fire in U.S. history.

The The Great HinckleyGreat Hinckley Fire of Fire of 18941894 ravaged more than ravaged more than 200,000 acres200,000 acres and claimed at least and claimed at least 418 lives418 lives — one of — one of the deadliest wildfires in U.S. historythe deadliest wildfires in U.S. history. . 

The The Great Fire of Great Fire of 19101910, believed to be the largest single , believed to be the largest single fire in recorded U.S. history. It burned more thanfire in recorded U.S. history. It burned more than

3 million acres3 million acres in Idaho, Montana and Washington, in Idaho, Montana and Washington, roughly the size of Connecticut. There were roughly the size of Connecticut. There were 87 fatalities87 fatalities from the fire and 78 of those were firefighters.from the fire and 78 of those were firefighters.

The The Cloquet Fire of Cloquet Fire of 19181918, claimed nearly , claimed nearly 500 lives500 lives in a in a single day. 38 communities had been razed to the ground.single day. 38 communities had been razed to the ground.

Record Wild Fires Record Wild Fires 1825 - 19181825 - 1918No Man-Made AGW CO2!No Man-Made AGW CO2!

Let’s Put ClimateGate & AGW-COLet’s Put ClimateGate & AGW-CO22

& Global Warming & Climate Change & Global Warming & Climate ChangeSecrecy Into ContextSecrecy Into Context

To View ClimateGate VideoTo View ClimateGate Video

Click on link on index pageClick on link on index pageto load down the videoto load down the video

after viewing this PowerPoint after viewing this PowerPoint

The Best 2 minute newsThe Best 2 minute newscoverage of ClimateGatecoverage of ClimateGate

Virginia’s Own ClimateGateVirginia’s Own ClimateGateMichael Mann & UVA Stone WallMichael Mann & UVA Stone Wall

(Note: The “Mike’s Nature Trick” in the Jon Stewart (Note: The “Mike’s Nature Trick” in the Jon Stewart video is UVA’s very own Michael Mann)video is UVA’s very own Michael Mann)

UVA has defied FOIA requests to release Prof. UVA has defied FOIA requests to release Prof. Michael Mann’s pro-AGW-data that was paid Michael Mann’s pro-AGW-data that was paid for by the TaxPayers.for by the TaxPayers.

UVA gleefully released (AGW-Skeptic)UVA gleefully released (AGW-Skeptic)

Prof. Patrick Michaels files to Sierra Club Prof. Patrick Michaels files to Sierra Club without delay or fanfare or legal obstructionismwithout delay or fanfare or legal obstructionism

So much for fairness in the name ofSo much for fairness in the name of Science and Transparency. Science and Transparency.

Fear Mongering Roanoke Times Style Fear Mongering Roanoke Times Style Nothing In Context Here!Nothing In Context Here!

SCIENCE & LAWSCIENCE & LAW

IN BOTH SCIENCE AND LAW IT IS IN BOTH SCIENCE AND LAW IT IS INCUMBENT UPON THE OFFENSIVE TEAM INCUMBENT UPON THE OFFENSIVE TEAM

TOTO PROVE THEIR HYPOTHESIS WITH FACTSPROVE THEIR HYPOTHESIS WITH FACTS

AND AND NOTNOT WITH CONCENSUS OR WITH CONCENSUS OR FEAR-MONGERING OR SLANDER FEAR-MONGERING OR SLANDER

THE DEFENSIVE TEAM NEEDS TO THE DEFENSIVE TEAM NEEDS TO ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT DOUBTESTABLISH SUFFICIENT DOUBT

TO PREVENTTO PREVENT FAULTY CONCLUSSIONS FAULTY CONCLUSSIONS

AND AND MISDIRECTED OUTCOMESMISDIRECTED OUTCOMES

SUMMARYSUMMARY(Click to Advance)(Click to Advance)

--

EARTH’S CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN EARTH’S CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN CHANGING WITHOUT MANKINDS INPUTCHANGING WITHOUT MANKINDS INPUT--

THE AGW MODEL(S) PROJECTIONS HAVE THE AGW MODEL(S) PROJECTIONS HAVE BEEN AND ARE SERIOUSLY FLAWEDBEEN AND ARE SERIOUSLY FLAWED--

THE ACTUAL AGW-CO2 CONTRIBUTION TO THE ACTUAL AGW-CO2 CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT CLEAR (APPEARS GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT CLEAR (APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO NATURE)TO BE MINIMAL COMPARED TO NATURE)

THEREFORETHEREFORE--

YOU SHOULD BE A RESPONSIBLE SKEPTIC!YOU SHOULD BE A RESPONSIBLE SKEPTIC!--

Responsible Skeptics ShouldResponsible Skeptics Should(Click to Advance)(Click to Advance)

--

• Question the Secrecy of the AGW dataQuestion the Secrecy of the AGW data• Question the Validity/Veracity of the AGW ModelsQuestion the Validity/Veracity of the AGW Models• Question the Sources of AGW Funding and Question the Sources of AGW Funding and

Resultant MotivationsResultant Motivations• Question the Absence of Real Open Scientific Question the Absence of Real Open Scientific

DebateDebate• Question the Uniqueness/Context of Weather Question the Uniqueness/Context of Weather

Events & Their Connection to AGW-CO2Events & Their Connection to AGW-CO2

* Develop Knowledge of The Leading Skeptical * Develop Knowledge of The Leading Skeptical Scientists and their workScientists and their work

Develop Knowledge of Leading SkepticsDevelop Knowledge of Leading Skeptics and Their Work and Their Work

• Heartland Institute: Heartland Institute: www.Heartland.orgwww.Heartland.org--

• Virginia Scientists & Engrs for Energy and Virginia Scientists & Engrs for Energy and Environment:Environment: www.VA-SEEE.org Prof Fred Singer www.VA-SEEE.org Prof Fred Singer --

• CATO Institute: CATO Institute: Prof Patrick Michaels Prof Patrick Michaels --

• Youtube 75 minute Documentary Video by Youtube 75 minute Documentary Video by BBC:BBC: The Great Global Warming SwindleThe Great Global Warming Swindle

My Novice HypothesisThe Natural Global Warming That Ended The Little Ice Age

In 1750 Is Still Warming Our Buns Today