Team 28: Tirath, Sunveer, Sibgatul, Simarjit

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Our guiding question is:

What would be the outcomes if the European toxic sludge accident occurred here in Toronto?

The primary aim of the investigation is to answer the above question.

Different outcomes of the European toxic sludge accident will be assessed and applied to our area.

How much the European accident differs from the hypothetical Toronto accident will also be looked at.

This time it is RED instead!

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•The MAL Hungarian Aluminum Company was established in 1995 by prominent Hungarian people

•The mine uses the Bayer process to convert bauxite into alumina which is a form of aluminum oxide

•70-75% of products exported to Western European Countries

•The company is locaed in Ajka, Veszprém County, in Western Hungary

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THE EUROPEAN TOXIC SLUDGE ACCIDENT

• On October 4th, 2010, a six-foot high tidal wave of *caustic sludge was unleashed out of the Ajkai Timfoldgyar metals plant in Hungary, a plant under the Hungarian Aluminum Production and Trade Co.

• The surrounding villages around the plant have been devastated, with homes, bridges, and vehicles destroyed

• At least one million cubic metres of sludge has spilled, covering an area of 40 square kilometres

*caustic: has the ability to corrode, burn, or destroy living tissue

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• Only 4 days later, on Friday, October 8th, production at the metal plant resumed

• On Saturday the 9th, 800 Kolontar residents evacuated due to the possibility of a second spill

• Many residents began returning back to the areas surrounding the plant despite environmentalists warnings that it is too dangerous and risky

• Greenpeace also disapproves of returning so early as well as restarting the plant

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• During the first couple days of the spill, three villages were affected immediately, with their creeks being polluted

• These creeks lead to Danube, the second-largest river in Europe

• Environmentalists were hoping the water will dilute the alkalinity of the sludge

• Government urging people in area to wear masks

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•Government insisted countries further down the Danube river, such as Romania and Serbia, will not be affected because of the high volume of water in the river diluting the sludge

• The International Commission of for the Protection of the Danube has reportedly said that the situation and effects “do not seem to be that dramatic” in the Danube river

•pH entering Danube was 9, while in local waterways the pH is 13.5

• Officials assure the water is safe to drink and no biological threats are imminent in the Danube

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An aerial view showing the path of the red sludge. Is a close-up showing the surrounding villages.

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A aerial view of the path of the spill, showing a wider range than the last map.

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•Red mud cannot be disposed easily and cannot be built on or farmed on

•This makes it difficult to control and a lot of it is left at a standstill in a body of water

•Red mud is highly basic, where the pH ranges from 10-13

•There are efforts to rid red mud through drying, but this is not a cost effective way due to the high amount of heat needed to be generated through fossil fuels

• Though the heavy metal content in the red sludge is seven times higher than in regular soil, the Hungarian government reported that it was not dangerous

• The Hungarian Academy of Science said that the heavy metal concentrations were not dangerous for the environment

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•The sludge is a by-product from the early stage of aluminum production.

•During this process, bauxite, a raw material, is taken out of the ground and washed with sodium hydroxide.

•“Alumina” is then produced, which is processed further, and waste, that is composed by solid impurities, heavy metals, and the chemicals is used as processing agents. • The exact chemical composition of the sludge has not been revealed

as it varies with the quality of the processing procedures it has undergone.

• However, a basic breakdown of the sludge reports that it is composed of six compounds that have differing effects on the sludge.

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● The sludge is composed of 40 – 45% iron oxide, this gives it its typical red colour

● There is about 10 -15% of aluminum oxide, which was proven to cause cancer in animals as a result of several tests

● Also 10 – 15% of silicon dioxide is present, often known as “silica” it can cause lung diseases and cancer if inhaled as a dust

• There is 6 – 10% titanium oxide which also caused cancer when tested on animals

• Lastly there is 5 – 6% oxygen bonded sodium oxide which is a byproduct of aluminum process

• There is also the chance of the sludge being composed of heavy alkaline metals causing the sludge to be more dangerous than it appears to be.

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•The toxic sludge has been said to have high alkalinity

•Alkaline solutions are basic, hence explaining why waterways near the plant have pH levels of 13.5

•According to the scale on left, sludge with a pH level of 9 can cause various health problems, so if one were to consume a solution with a pH level of 13.5, it could be deadly

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• In order to neutralize the waterways and rivers, emergency crews in Hungary pouring tonnes of plaster and acetic acid to neutralize the alkalinity

•This can be justified with the neutralization reaction, since and acid and a base equals a salt and water; we know the sludge is basic and acetic acid is an acid

•The plaster is being used to stop the sludge from travelling further, but it can be noted that plaster is also acidic, as it often contains gypsum (CaSO4)

•They believe it will level out in Hungary and reach Budapest with acceptable pH values

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• pH level of water should be as close to 7 as possible to be neutral and pure, but toxic sludge disrupting that

• In the Hungarian Marcal waterway, the ecosystem is destroyed because of high alkaline levels; in the rivers, alkaline water kills everything it comes into contact with; smaller rivers = DEAD ZONES  

• Very acidic and very basic solutions can kill fish and be lethal to them; this is why all the fish exposed to the sludge are dying, as the pH level of the water becomes so far from neutral (7)

• High acid levels are generally already known to be dangerous; people are aware of this; unaware that high basic solutions are also lethal

"All life is dead…" "A two- to five-centimeter -thick layer of caustic mud is covering the soil. The mud needs to be physically collected and removed — this will take a long time.”¹

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•All vegetation on land (excluding trees) and in water have been affected because of the high pH levels, alkalinity, and heavy metals; this will leave long-term effects on the growth of the vegetation in Hungary because the heavy metals can soak into the soils and river bed

• Small animals in the area have been effected because their drinking water is contaminated; no fish at all

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• Initial effects have caused seven people to be killed and many more severely injured

• The sludge has caused people to suffered from burns from the chemicals within.

•The individual compounds of the sludge pose a very serious risk of lung diseases and cancers

•As for long term effects, tests are still being done to evaluate any effects that will cause discomfort to future generations

• However, scientists believe that as the sludge runs of into the water, it is being diluted to prevent further harm

• Needless to say, the toxins that have already been released into the soil and the water will eventually contaminate the area for future generations

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• In most affected areas, hunting and fishing of fish has been banned as the fish population has decreased over the course of this disaster

•In order to minimize the effects, home grown food has been banned due to the toxins being exposed to the soil

• Greenpeace's figures suggest that the drinking water supplies of at least 100,000 people could be eventually affected by the toxic levels of the sludge

• A potential second spill from the plant may cause the sludge to overflow the surrounding land and waters, causing more toxins to build up and destroy any form of agriculture or animal life

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•The city was evacuated, but it is unknown if people will come back; many residents are afraid another toxic sludge accident will occur

•In the future, not a lot of people will move to the affected villages because of what has happened

•Many policemen and emergency crews have been deployed to work  

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•The Hungarian government has reported that it would take tens of millions of dollars and at least a year to cleanup the contaminated areas

•Since the red mud reached bodies of water, the government must consistently do tests on the bodies of water and the organisms that resides within them to make sure they are healthy

• Though Hungary attain 90% of its drinking water from underground springs, the toxic sludge will momentarily require more spring water to be used which increases the overall cost

• Not only could this effect Hungary, but other neighboring countries

• Those countries as well will have to do tests on their respective areas to see if the metal concentration is with in a suitable level.

This could cost even more than already stated because it can sometimes take years for a environment to be fully rid of a contamination.

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•After the government does separate the red mud from the environment there is the problem of disposing the red mud

•The mud cannot be just poured into another dam where it’s susceptible to overflowing again

•The government will have to dry the red mud which does cost a lot and can cause a lot of pollution because of the high amount of energy through fossil fuel required

•This could result to acid rain within the area and further damaging the environment

•The fishing industry within Hungary will be greatly affected and further increase the overall cost of this problem

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•Since the toxic sludge escaped the reservoir it was contained in, it has destroyed wildlife and vegetation as it has travelled through the water systems of Hungary •As the sludge entered the Danube, many other European nations began to fear the amount of damage that could occur to them if the sludge spread

• The government of Hungary is also being discredited now due to them downplaying the impact

•As they fear the effects on tourism and agricultural exports

•Many tests have been done to show the highly toxic levels of the water, although the government denies many of the results of these tests

• First, we need a plant location; let us say the plant was located on the coast of Lake Ontario in the downtown area and the toxic sludge composition is exactly as it was in the European spill

•At least one million cubic metres of toxic sludge spilled in Hungary; this can be used as our starting point value for calculations

•The topography of Toronto would have to be analyzed in order to determine which way the sludge would go; this gives us two options: the land slants towards the lake or it is fairly levelled/slants towards the city

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•If the city’s topography is fairly balanced or slants towards the city more, then the streets of Toronto would be flooded, damaging homes, cars, and buildings•Everything would be flooded, affecting the current, immediate traffic and the people who work and live in the city•People would have to evacuate and many others may be out of jobs unless their employers relocate•Much stress would be put on other hospitals as the patients in Toronto hospitals would be moved to other GTA hospitals, including the people who suffer chemical burns, breathing problems, and other injuries related to the toxic sludge•Schools in the GTA would have to accommodate Toronto students •All the grass that the sludge touches would be negatively affecting their future growth•Some of the sludge would also end up in Lake Ontario by directly flowing into the lake; eventually, though the storm drains, a lot of the water would end up in nearby rivers, creeks, and Lake Ontario; this would affect the wildlife in the rivers, lakes, and Lake Ontario a lot, causing in deaths of certain species of plants and fish•The European toxic sludge spill covered about 40 square km. Toronto is 641 square kilometres. Although many factors affect the area that the toxic sludge will cover, such as rural land vs. urban areas (buildings), among other things, it is safe to say that the sludge will mostly stay in the city of Toronto and not flow into surrounding cities

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•The water from Lake Ontario would be filtered, so our drinking system would not be affected; a negative factor, though, is that the filtering system may need to be improved to accommodate the new pH levels•Also, if the heavy metals in the sludge sinks into the lake bed and the other small creek and river beds, this would have long term affects on the aquatic wildlife and may play a role in our health/drinking water as well•Government would have to spend money on cleaning•Many residents may not choose to come back in fear of this repeating, causing a decrease in the future population of Toronto•Potential homebuyers looking for houses in Toronto will also decrease because the city would be ruined and take time to recover; fear of the accident reoccurring will also decrease future home buying in Toronto•Affect tourism for quite some time, businesses go low

Property value = DECREASING

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•If the city slanted toward Lake Ontario, then most of the sludge would end up in the lake, however, some flooding would occur at first because such a large volume of sludge with such a thick viscosity would not be able to enter the lake all at once; as a result, some of the city would be flooded and the previous effects would occur but on a smaller scale•Using the starting point value of one million cubic meters of sludge, some calculations can be done

Lake Ontario = 1,638,095,457,398,147.5 L

Toxic sludge (in L) =1 million cubic metres x 1000 L 1 cubic metre = 1 000 000 000 000 L

*% of sludge in Lake = 1 000 000 000 000 L x 100% 1,638,095,457,398,147.5 L

= 0.061%*Note: the % of sludge in the lake is assuming that the sludge has mixed with the lake water uniformly; as this is not naturally possible, other parts of the lake will be affected more than others

•The lake would have roughly 0.061% of toxic sludge; this would affect the plant and animal life in the lake to some degree; certain plants and fish would die, and some would get sick; the sickness levels would be of varying degrees depending on how fragile the organism is; the food chain would also be affected even if one organism gets sick/dies•Although Lake Ontario is large, it will not be able to accomodate all the excess sludge, therefore, it will invariably flow into Lake Erie to balance out the amount; Lake Erie’s aquatic wildlife would only be slightly affected because the pH levels should be diluted by the time it reaches Lake Erie

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•The political effects of if it happened here and how it happened in Europe would be similar• As the rustic sludge entered the large Danube, if it happened here in Toronto, it is very likely it will enter and contaminate the St. Lawrence River, depending on if more toxic sludge were to leak out or not• This could prove quite destructive environmentally and politically•As the St. Lawrence Waterway is widely used as a path for importing and exporting ships, a new route would have to be chosen as the waters would not be safe enough to go through•If the sludge travels through the St. Lawrence, it will enter almost every Great Lake•This could then increase the total damages and could spread the sludge into the United States•This kind of disaster could create a diplomatic rift, since, at the moment, the United States is cleaning up the mess from the BP Oil Spill, and they would not be too keen to be cleaning up toxins on two different fronts• The total economy of Toronto would decrease as the lakeshore would be deemed uninhabitable for quite some time•This would result in many citizens emigrating•Fishing industries and the transportations that operate through Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence seaway would be at a standstill•Massive clean-up efforts would be in effect and a disaster like this would really test the government of Toronto•A disaster here and the one in Hungary would still pose similar political effects•Some political effects in Toronto, though, would differ depending on the action that our government decides to take

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•HEALTH EFFECTS: The health effects remain the same because the make-up of the sludge remains the same, thus it would have the same effect on Torontonians

•WILDLIFE CONCERNS: The wildlife concerns would be imminent in the small rivers and creeks that the sludge travels to but not so much in Lake Ontario because of the low percentage of it and Lake Ontario’s massive volume

•POLITICAL EFFECTS: would be similar to those of Hungary, but some would differ depending on the action our government takes

•ECONOMIC EFFECTS: would be similar; some would differ depending on the size of the fishing industries in affected areas

•SOCIAL EFFECTS: would remain exactly the same

Conclusively, it can be said that the hypothetical Toronto spill would not differ as much from the European spill. The only main differences would occur either because of our different geography, land development (rural vs. urban, affecting the path and flooding of the sludge), and some of the political/economic effects.

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