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Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack – October 2019

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Page 1: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

Our Insights.Your Story.Property market chart pack – October 2019

Page 2: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth

As at the end of October 2019

Residential Real Estate

$6.6 TrillionAustralian Superannuation

$2.9 Trillion

Australian Listed Stocks

$2.0 Trillion

Commercial Real Estate

$993 Billion

10.4 millionNumber of dwellings

$1.80 trillionOutstanding

mortgage debt

375,245Total sales p.a.

51.5%Household wealth

held in housing

$247.7 billionGross value of

sales p.a.

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA, ABS

Page 3: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Sep-91 Sep-98 Sep-05 Sep-12 Sep-19

Combined capitals Combined regionals

National dwelling values posted a 1.7% lift over the three months ending September, the highest quarterly rate of capital gain since Jun-17

Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to Sept-19

Source: CoreLogic

Page 4: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Sep-84 Sep-91 Sep-98 Sep-05 Sep-12 Sep-19

Combined capitals Combined regionals

The annual rate of decline in housing values has moved through a trough as housing market conditions improve

Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to Sept-19

Source: CoreLogic

Page 5: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-0.6%

-1.6%

-2.3%

-3.0%

-3.2%

-3.8%

-4.2%

-4.4%

-4.7%

-4.8%

-3.2%

-3.2%

-3.7%

-3.6%

-4.0%

-4.2%

-4.4%

-4.6%

-4.9%

-4.7%

-0.7%

0.3%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.9%

-1.4%

-2.3%

-3.1%

-4.0%

-4.9%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2%

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

Regional markets Combined capital cities National

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

Quarterly change Annual change

The most expensive dwellings have recorded the largest decline over the past twelve months, but are also recording the most rapid recovery

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles, National as at Sept 2019

Annual change in dwelling values by decile, Sept-19

Source: CoreLogic

Page 6: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-3.9%

-2.1%-1.1%

-9.0%

-4.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19

Annual change in dwelling values

Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Sydney

2.5%

-9.5%

1.3%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19

Annual change in dwelling values

Hobart Darwin Canberra

Although values are still broadly trending lower on an annual basis, the annual rate of decline has levelled or started to ease across most cities

Source: CoreLogic

Page 7: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Sydney dwelling values increased by 1.7% in September and by 3.5% over the three months to September 2019. Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -4.8% over the past year and they are currently -11.9 % lower than their July 2017 peak.

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Sydney

Source: CoreLogic

Page 8: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19

Quarterly changeAnnual change

Melbourne dwelling values increased by 1.7% in September and by 3.4% over the three months to September 2019. Melbourne dwelling values have fallen by -3.9% over the past year and they are currently -7.9% lower than their November 2017 peak.

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Melbourne

Source: CoreLogic

Page 9: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19

Quarterly changeAnnual change

Brisbane dwelling values increased by 0.1% in September, and they were 0.5% higher over the three months to September 2019. Brisbane dwelling values have fallen by -2.1% over the past year and they are currently -2.4% lower than their April 2018 peak.

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Brisbane

Source: CoreLogic

Page 10: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

1018 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19

Quarterly changeAnnual change

Adelaide dwelling values held firm in September and they were -0.6% lower over the three months to September 2019. Adelaide dwelling values have fallen by -1.1% over the past year and they are currently -1.6% lower than their December 2018 peak.

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Adelaide

Source: CoreLogic

Page 11: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

1118 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19

Quarterly changeAnnual change Perth dwelling values fell

by -0.8% in September and they were -1.9% lowerover the three months to September 2019. Perth dwelling values have fallen by -9.0% over the past year and they are currently -21.3% lower than their June 2014 peak.

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Perth

Source: CoreLogic

Page 12: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

1218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19

Quarterly changeAnnual change

Hobart dwelling values fell by -0.4% in September and they were 0.4% higher over the three months to September 2019. Hobart dwelling values have increased by 2.5% over the past year and they are currently -0.7% lower than their March 2019 peak.

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Hobart

Source: CoreLogic

Page 13: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

1318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sep-01 Sep-06 Sep-11 Sep-16

Quarterly changeAnnual change

Darwin dwelling values fell by -0.2% in September and they were -1.1% lower over the three months to September 2019. Darwin dwelling values have fallen by -9.5% over the past year and they are currently -30.8% lower than their May 2014 peak.

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Darwin

Source: CoreLogic

Page 14: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

1418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sep-94 Sep-99 Sep-04 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-19

Quarterly changeAnnual change

Canberra dwelling values increased by 1.0% in September, and they were 1.4% higher over the three months to September 2019. Canberra dwelling values have increased by 1.3% over the past year and they are 0.3% higher than the previous April 19 peak in value.

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Canberra

Source: CoreLogic

Page 15: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

1518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Sep 99 Sep 01 Sep 03 Sep 05 Sep 07 Sep 09 Sep 11 Sep 13 Sep 15 Sep 17 Sep 19

Monthly sales with six month moving average, National

-12.1%-22.4%

-13.3%-5.1%-4.7%

-11.2%-5.7%

-16.5%

-15.6%-18.5%

-12.9%-5.4%-5.2%

-14.3%-9.1%

-14.0%-14.4%-14.1%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra

Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA

Regional WARegional TasRegional NT

Combined capitalsCombined regionals

National

Year on year change in settled sales

While the number of settled sales is much lower than a year ago, the recent trend is showing a pick-up in buyer activity

Source: CoreLogic

Decade average

Page 16: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

1618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19

National rental rates fell for the third consecutive month in September however, the annual rate of rental growth still trending slightly higher

Annual change in rental rates - National Annual change in rental rates to Sept-19

Source: CoreLogic

Page 17: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

1718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

3.2%3.5%

4.6%4.5%

4.3%5.2%

6.0%4.7%

4.7%4.7%

5.4%5.7%

6.1%5.4%

6.9%

3.7%5.1%

4.0%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra

Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA

Regional WARegional TasRegional NT

Combined capitalsCombined regionals

National

3.5%

3.7%

3.9%

4.1%

4.3%

4.5%

4.7%

4.9%

5.1%

Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19

With dwelling values now trending higher and rents generally soft, rental yields are once again trending lower

Gross rental yields - National Gross rental yields as at Sept-19

Source: CoreLogic

Page 18: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

1818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

The median selling time has peaked across the combined capitals as market conditions improve, but was still trending higher across the regional markets over the September quarter

Median days on market Median days on market Sep-19 v Sep 18

Source: CoreLogic

Page 19: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

1918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Vendor discounting rates are starting to ease as buyers lose some leverage

Median vendor discount Median vendor discount Sep-19 v Sep-18

Source: CoreLogic

Page 20: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

2018 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Capital cityNo of new

listings

N

e

w

No of total

listings

Sydney 5,668 22,048

Melbourne 6,123 29,425

Brisbane 3,617 19,602

Adelaide 1,744 7,810

Perth 2,582 17,237

Hobart 306 1,002

Darwin 112 1,396

Canberra 614 2,129

Combined

Capitals20,766 100,649

-19.1%

-18.4%

-18.0%

-9.4%

-16.3%

-20.6%

-24.5%

-7.3%

-17.6%

-13.4%

-8.8%

-4.7%

-2.0%

-11.5%

-9.1%

-1.3%

1.7%

-8.4%

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

NT

ACT

National

Total Listings

New Listings-17.7%

-18.6%

-17.0%

-6.5%

-20.4%

-22.3%

-38.5%

-7.7%

-17.3%

-22.7%

-10.7%

-2.7%

0.4%

-13.1%

-2.0%

-3.9%

1.5%

-11.6%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Combined Capitals

Total Listings

New Listings

The volume of stock for sale remains lower than it was a year ago with new stock being listed for sale almost 20% lower nationally

Source: CoreLogic

Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 29 September 2019

12 month change: new and total properties advertised for sale

StateNo of new

listings

1

2

m

No of total

listings

NSW 9,503 44,811

Vic 8,709 44,903

Qld 8,369 59,560

SA 2,486 16,276

WA 3,768 28,994

Tas 788 4,087

NT 182 2,043

ACT 639 2,229

National 34,444 202,903

Page 21: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

2118 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 Sep-19

Nu

mb

er

of

au

cti

on

s

Cle

ara

nc

e r

ate

Weekly clearance rates, combined capital cities

The second half of 2019 has seen clearance rates improve significantly, however the number of auctions being held remains low relative to recent years

Source: CoreLogic

Page 22: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

2218 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Housing demand: High migration rates are continuing to push the national population higher, with growth of 1.6% over the 12 months ending March 2019

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Page 23: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

2318 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Aug-89 Aug-94 Aug-99 Aug-04 Aug-09 Aug-14 Aug-19

Houses Units

Number of dwellings approved for construction, National

Approved housing supply has been trending lower since late 2017, roughly in line with the peak in housing values

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Page 24: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

2418 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

22.4%

15%

25%

35%

45%

Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19

% of mortgages settled with an LVR 80%+

45.6%

15.8%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Jun-19

% of mortgages originated on interest-only terms

4.7%

0.1%0%3%5%8%

10%13%15%

Aug-09 Aug-11 Aug-13 Aug-15 Aug-17 Aug-19

Annual change in credit, owner occupier v investor

Owner occupier housing Investment housing

Housing credit is expanding at an historically slow pace with investment credit growth falling in July and August

Source: CoreLogic, RBA, APRA

Page 25: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

2518 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

The value of lending to both investors and owner occupiers saw a significant increase

in July, with the value of owner

occupier loans up 5.3% and investor

loans up 4.7%, however investors

still comprise a lower than average share

of mortgage demand

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Page 26: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

2618 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jul 03 Jul 05 Jul 07 Jul 09 Jul 11 Jul 13 Jul 15 Jul 17 Jul 19

First home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing finance commitments

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas

27.5%

31.9%

26.3%

22.8%

36.6%

21.1%

43.9%

27.3%

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

NT

ACT

First home buyers have been a key source of housing demand due to improved affordability, less competition from investors, low mortgage rates and incentives

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Page 27: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

2718 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul 0

3

Jul 0

7

Jul 1

1

Jul 1

5

Jul 1

9

NSW

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul 0

3

Jul 0

7

Jul 1

1

Jul 1

5

Jul 1

9

Vic

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul 0

3

Jul 0

7

Jul 1

1

Jul 1

5

Jul 1

9

Qld

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul 0

3

Jul 0

7

Jul 1

1

Jul 1

5

Jul 1

9

SA

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul 0

3

Jul 0

7

Jul 1

1

Jul 1

5

Jul 1

9

WA

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul 0

3

Jul 0

7

Jul 1

1

Jul 1

5

Jul 1

9

Tas

31.9%25.8%

18.9%23.4%

15.9%21.4% 19.8%

24.9%

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT

Investors as a % of total value of lending (excluding refinances)

Investor housing finance commitments by states as a share of total commitments (excluding refinances)

Investor activity has faded over the past couple of years in each state and territory and is yet to show a rebound

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Page 28: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

2818 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

4.25

3.813.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep 19

Investor mortgage rate premiumOwner Occupie r Inve stor

55

5.00 7.00

10.38

17.00

9.62

5.76

7.79

4.944

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Sep-1959 Sep-1969 Sep-1979 Sep-1989 Sep-1999 Sep-2009 Sep-2019

Standard variable mortgage rates over time

4.94

4.25

3.41

5.52

4.84

3.81

Variable; Standard

Variable; Discounted

3-year fixed

Variable; Standard

Variable; Discounted

3-year fixed

Ow

ner

occ

up

ier

Inve

sto

r

Avg mortgage rate by product type,Sept 2019 (%)

With the cash rate falling by 75 basis points between June and October 2019, mortgage rates are tracking at the lowest level since the 1950’s

Source: CoreLogic, RBA

Page 29: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

2918 July 2019© CoreLogic, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer

In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland DataBased on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2019. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and agree that the State gives no warranty in relationto the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.South Australian DataThis information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.New South Wales DataContains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.Victorian DataThe State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian DataBased on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2019) trading as Landgate.Australian Capital Territory DataThe Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT 2601.Tasmanian DataThis product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; andb) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.

Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au

Page 30: Our Insights. Your Story. - CoreLogic · Our Insights. Your Story. Property market chart pack –October 2019

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